Poll: Should Spencer Torkelson’s Breakout Be Believed?

Not long ago, Spencer Torkelson seemed to be out of time. The Tigers first baseman was selected first overall in the 2020 draft to plenty of fanfare, and he instantly became a consensus top-5 talent in the minor leagues. A disappointing rookie season in 2022 tempered those massive expectations, but a strong second half in 2023 caused many around the league to think the following year would be Torkelson’s season to shine. That didn’t happen either, as the slugger was once again a below-average hitter overall and wound up optioned to the minors for much of the year. When the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres to push Colt Keith over to first base, it seemed like a bad omen for 25-year-old’s future in Detroit.

Spring Training changed all of that, as the club’s entire outfield mix save Riley Greene wound up on the injured list. That opened up enough roster spots for Torkelson to have a real shot at the Opening Day roster, and he made the most of the opportunity by hitting .340/.389/.680 in 55 plate appearances during camp. Spring stats only count for so much due to the less competitive environment, however, and Torkelson would need to show out in actual major league games if he was going to turn his career around. So far, he’s done just that. Torkelson has not only been the Tigers’ best hitter this year, but he’s been one of the top hitters in the majors.

Across 24 games this year, the slugger has slashed an excellent .273/.377/.591 with a wRC+ of 176. It’s enough to have made him the 12th-best qualified hitter in the major leagues to this point in the year. It’s early enough in the season that the leaderboard still looks fairly unusual; just ahead of Torkelson with a 177 wRC+ is veteran outfielder George Springer, who it goes without saying is unlikely to maintain a .444 BABIP all season long. While there’s plenty of reasons to be skeptical of small-sample performances, many of them don’t apply to the 106 plate appearances Torkelson has taken to this point in the year.

Torkelson’s BABIP is .309, which is the highest of his career but well within the range of expected outcomes for a hitter and not substantially higher than the .285 BABIP he posted last season. The fact that Torkelson is hitting the ball on a line (17.7% line drive rate) more often than last year (15.1%) surely helps his outcomes on balls in play, as well. His 26.4% strikeout rate is also a tick lower than last year’s 27.6%, but none of these are the most encouraging signs regarding Torkelson’s start to the 2025 campaign. The most exciting news here is that he’s not only resumed crushing the ball at the level he was during the 2023 season, but that he’s paired it with newfound patience at the plate.

The 25-year-old is swinging less than ever, at just 44.3% of his pitches. Torkelson’s swing rates both inside and outside of the strike zone are lower than ever, and that newfound patience has allowed him to not only draw walks at a phenomenal 13.2% clip but also make more contact when he does swing. His 10.2% swinging strike rate this year is the lowest of his career, and he’s making contact on 52.2% of pitches he swings at outside of the zone after putting the bat on just 40.6% of those same pitches last year.

That more judicious approach at the plate has allowed Torkelson to rediscover his titanic power after posting a paltry .155 ISO last year. He has seven homers and seven doubles already this year, and that power is backed up by his underlying numbers: he’s managed a phenomenal 17.7% barrel rate that would be by far the highest of his career if maintained over the full season and is nearly triple last year’s 6.1% clip, and 50.0% of his balls have been considered hard hit, good for a 95mph exit velocity or higher.

All of this is extremely impressive, and if Torkelson can keep anything close to this going for the full year, he’ll have finally tapped into the potential scouts saw in him half a decade ago as an amateur. Over his final 300 plate appearances in 2023, Torkelson hit .238/.320/.506 with a wRC+ of 125. His 26.7% strikeout rate was more or less identical over that stretch to this year’s figure. His 16.6% barrel rate and 52.2% hard-hit rate weren’t far off, either. Those numbers are all close enough to serve as a reminder that Torkelson’s first 100 plate appearances this year don’t guarantee his future production will be close to as impactful, although his 2025 numbers do have a few key advantages over his second-half numbers in 2023.

For one thing, Torkelson’s line drive rate is three points higher while his soft contact rate is nine points lower this season. Those figures could help to explain the huge difference in BABIP, which sat at just .262 during his final 300 trips to the plate in 2023. His discipline is also noticeably improved, as he walked 10.0% of the time during that stretch, nearly four points lower than this year. If Torkelson’s improved plate discipline holds up and he continues to make soft contact this sparingly, it’s not hard to imagine him being able to keep up this level of production over the long haul.

What do MLBTR readers think of Torkelson’s hot start? Is this finally the year he puts it all together and looks like the dominant offensive force he was always expected to be, or will this prove to be another flash in the pan like his late 2023 production? Have your say in the poll below: