11:14pm: Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that the two sides have reached an agreement on a $500MM deal over 14 years, pending a physical. That’s an average annual value of $35.7MM. Davidi reports that there’s no deferred money in the deal, making it the second-largest deal in MLB history by net present value behind that of Soto. Heyman reports that the deal contains a full no-trade clause and comes with a signing bonus, while Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportset reports that the deal does not include an opt-outs.
8:49pm: The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been playing “will they, won’t they” for a long time, but it appears the stare down between the sides may be coming to a close. Mike Rodriguez reported on Friday that the two sides are nearing an agreement on an extension worth more than $500MM, and while no deal appears to be in place yet USA Today’s Bob Nightengale confirmed this morning that the sides are discussing a deal worth $500MM that would keep Guerrero in Toronto for at least fourteen years while suggesting that “perhaps” the deal would get done as soon as this coming week.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post joined the fray this evening, noting that sources around his team have “suggested” the the Jays are working to finish up a 14-year deal in the $500MM range while adding that a deal could be consummated “soon.” Heyman went on to refer to the deal as “seemingly all-but-done” and added that “optimism is huge” that a deal will get done, though he emphasized that both GM Ross Atkins and Guerrero himself declined to comment. Guerrero’s most recent comment on the matter was given to ESPN’s Jorge Castillo, who he told that he did “not know anything” about the state of extension talks before emphasizing that he has always “left that to [his] agent” at the Prime Agency.
Of course, Guerrero rather famously set a deadline of the start of Spring Training that came and went without a deal. The sides have seemingly continued to negotiate both in the eye of the media and behind closed doors since then, however, with fairly specific reports regarding Guerrero’s asking price and a new offer from the Jays coming to the surface. It’s fairly common for contract talks to continue beyond self-imposed deadlines if the sides are close enough, with Garrett Crochet standing as a notable recent example of a player who set a hard deadline (in his case, Opening Day) for extension talks before ultimately signing after that deadline. Jackson Merrill, Ketel Marte, Brandon Pfaadt, and Kristian Campbell are among the other players to have signed extensions since the season began who presumably opened negotiations with their clubs during Spring Training.
Both previous talks between the sides and reports regarding the latest framework have centered around a 14-year pact. That’s a reflection of Guerrero’s youth, as he only just turned 26 years old last month. It’s a somewhat similar situation to Juan Soto, who hit free agency right around his 26th birthday. Given his youth and talent, he was able to parlay a frenzied free agency into a record-shattering 15-year deal worth $765MM. On that kind of length, the Jays and Guerrero weren’t far apart in February. A gap of $50MM on a 14-year deal would only be $3.57MM annually. A $100MM gap would be $7.14MM per year. Those are fairly small numbers in terms of an MLB club’s budget, so it was understandable that Shapiro and Atkins felt good enough about bridging the gap to publicly suggest they would sign Guerrero when all was said and done.
Prior to Soto moving the goalposts, the reported $500MM value of the deal Guerrero and the Jays are discussing would have been a record-breaking deal. Shohei Ohtani signed a ten-year, $700MM contract with the Dodgers just over a year ago. However, the massive deferrals in that contract significantly lowered the NPV. The league calculated his AAV as $46.06MM while the MLBPA pegged it at $43.78MM. Ballparking the guarantee around $450MM was still a record at the time, with Mookie Betts and his $365MM the previous top guarantee. Of course, Ohtani’s deal moved to a distant second with the Soto deal and now Guerrero is apparently poised to shoot past him as well.
Guerrero’s track record isn’t quite as elite as that of Soto, who is simply in a class all his own as an offensive talent with a career wRC+ (158) in the same ballpark as Guerrero’s peak seasons. Even so, his numbers are quite good and he’s only a year older; when Guerrero is at his best, he’s easily the closest comparison to Soto in the game in terms of age and overall offensive ability. For the Jays, he has been the face of the franchise for a long time. After the club’s postseason appearances in 2015 and 2016, they entered a quick rebuild period that saw them post losing records for the next three years. As such, many fans rested their hopes on an emerging core of young prospects like Guerrero, Bo Bichette and others.
His initial major league work was good but not great, though it came at an age when most prospects are still playing in college or in the minors. He hit .269/.336/.442 over the 2019 and 2020 seasons for a 107 wRC+, indicating he was 7% better than league average at the plate. To be holding his own in the big leagues during his age-20 and -21 seasons was still a notable accomplishment, however, even if he wasn’t immediately playing at All-Star levels. Any doubts about his ability to reach the ceiling he flashed as a prospect were quelled in 2021, as he hit 48 home runs, drew walks at a 12.3% clip and only struck out 15.8% of the time. His .311/.401/.601 batting line led to a wRC+ of 166. He would have won the American League Most Valuable Player award that year, if not for an absurd two-way season from Ohtani.
Guerrero couldn’t quite carry that MVP-caliber offensive output over into his next two seasons. He hit a combined .269/.341/.462 in 2022 and 2023 for a 125 wRC+. While that’s still strong production, it’s obviously a drop from his 2021 campaign and 2023 in particular cast him as closer to pedestrian than superstar as he posted a 118 wRC+ with just 1.3 fWAR. Fortunately, Guerrero helped to quell his doubters when he cranked things back up last year, slashing .323/.396/.544 for a 165 wRC+ and finishing sixth in a crowded AL MVP field.
That’s not to say that there is no risk. The defense is questionable and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. But he has already accomplished a lot with the bat at a young age. His walk and strikeout rates have been consistently better than average, with strong power to boot. On any kind of massive deal like this, the signing club probably knows it won’t look pristine all the way to the final season, as the Tigers and Angels could tell you about their deals for Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. The Jays will be hoping that they get piles of value from Guerrero’s prime years, both in terms of on-field and off-field value, in order to ease the pain of his eventual decline.
Arguably, it would have been cheaper to extend Guerrero earlier in his career, as players generally gain earning power as they get closer to free agency. However, Guerrero’s oscillating results perhaps gave the Jays pause about making a significant commitment to him. From Guerrero’s perspective, he was an incredibly talented prospect and on track to reach free agency at such a young age, giving him incentive to bet on himself. Finding a price amenable to both sides would have been challenging.
The stars have seemingly aligned recently. Guerrero’s 2024 season seemed to prove that 2021 wasn’t a fluke. Meanwhile, the Jays have attempted to secure mega deals with other players and fallen short. They were heavily tied to Ohtani, Soto, Roki Sasaki and plenty of other players who would have been headline-grabbing acquisitions, but none on those pursuits panned out. Until this Guerrero deal becomes official, the largest deal in franchise history is George Springer’s $150MM guarantee on a six-year pact, which is now more than four years old. With Shapiro and Atkins reportedly both nearing the ends of their respective contracts and the Jays disappointing in 2024, it has been suggested they are under pressure for a big public relations victory.
Since they haven’t been able to get those big deals for marquee free agents done, that leaves them some future payroll space to commit to Guerrero. He and Bichette are both slated for free agency after 2025, as are Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Chad Green. After 2026, Springer, Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho are slated to hit the open market. José Berríos is under contract through 2028, but has an opt-out after 2026. Anthony Santander will have an opt-out chance after 2027. Andrés Giménez and Alejandro Kirk could be the two players making notable money still on the team by 2028 if those opt-out clauses are exercised, and there’s nothing on the books beyond 2030.
If Guerrero and the Jays officially put pen to paper, it will deprive the coming offseason of one of the top free agents. As of now, Guerrero and Kyle Tucker are viewed as the top position players likely to be available. On the pitching side, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen and Michael King will be some of the most attractive names. That will be a tough development for fans of other clubs but it could be a huge benefit to those other free agents, especially Tucker, who will become the uncontested best free agent hitter available in a market that looks increasingly starved for impact offense without Guerrero at the top. Of course, all of this would require the sides to officially get a deal done.
If completed, will go down as one of the worst contracts EVER!
Yeah I’m making progress towards one of those baconator’s.
Not even close.
That’ll be the Soto deal in a few years.
Soto at least has a very good eye so I can see him aging better, but overall agree. Neither will look good when they’re in their 30s.
Both of them will be first ballot hall of famers.
Agreed 100%
Way too for Vladdy the fatty!
RobM:
Soto won’t be good in his 30s? That’s ridiculous. If you’re saying his late 30s OK but when he’s 31 he’s not going to be good? I don’t get it.
Well look at is this way he has 15 years to get that gold glove he was talking about recently.
If Soto/Boras trip their opt out after his age-30 season, the Mets should let him leave. Then it will be a great deal for them. They’ll likely get his last peak years.
Maybe not
Joey Votto had as good an eye as Soto and his contract aged very poorly. And it was a lot smaller. The Mets will be lucky to get 4 good years out of him.
4 good years? So you’re saying Soto will decline by age 30? Whaaat
Soto reminds me at lot of Cano, which means his hitting should be elite until 35ish. By then, Soto will have long been assigned to a DH role. But, then again, the Mets didn’t sign him for his fielding ability. In the end, Soto will outperform Vlad but he’s also likely going to make $305 million more in compensation. So it’s not exactly an apples to apples contract comparison.
Votto did not age poorly. He was one of the best hitters in the game at age 37. Most guys are retired by then. He had some down years in his mid-30s, but he aged better than most.
Did he age like the steroid era players? Of course not. Nobody does. And no, Soto and Guerrero won’t be playing at 40, but their teams know that… those later years are just unofficially deferred money.
@smuzqwpdmx – I could definitely see Soto playing till 40. Over the next 10 years if he average 30 homeruns that would put him around 502 homeruns so he could possibly be chasing 600 by the time he’s 40.
Votto’s contract did not age poorly. His last couple years weren’t up to Joey Votto standards but that was one of the better 10 year contracts that has been given out. It wasn’t a bad contract, it was just a large contract for a team that doesn’t spend enough money to be able to compete year in and year out.
If the Reds would have upped the payroll by 20 or 30 million and went out and got Votto help nobody would bat an eye at that contract. Votto was worth every penny the Reds gave him and I’m happy I got to watch him play in a Reds uniform as long as I did.
Albert Pujols is a first ballot HOFer. Would you like his Angels contract?
Cano? A PED user? Not a good comp in my book.
Joey Votto’s contract was a huge success for the Reds.
Many players declined significantly at age 30. Look at Soto’s #5 comparison through age 25 on BR Andruw Jones.. He fell off a cliff at age 30. It’s not a guarantee that Soto will too, there are no guarantees in life anyway, but it just proves that the precedent is there for it to happen. And of Soto’s 1-4 comps of Harper, Frank Robinson, Trout, and Griffey, only Robinson didn’t fall off somewhat at age 30. The others were injury related, but it still happened.
Soto is more than likely already 30.
Who cares? The Hall of Fame is so watered-down now, it means nothing.
Uh, Joey Votto was one of the most successful mega-deals. He outperformed his contract.
Rob – While I agree with you on Vlad, I disagree on Soto as he’s always been in tremendous shape.
Take 5 years off of the Cardinals and add it to the Angels contract and yes I would take it in a heart beat. Pujols signed his Angels contract after year 11 and not year 6.
dewey – I agree with you.
Unlike Cano and Vlad’s BFF Tatis, I don’t believe Vlad is using PED’s. He wasn’t born into that culture, he was born in Canada and I truly believe he has been clean his entire career.
I’m not worried about gold gloves in right field. It’s about his hitting
hiflew:
Yes, let’s throw out random players like Joey Votto and say how he aged is how Soto will age. Sheesh.
Votto did not age poorly.
====================
‘Poorly’ is overstating it, but his career mostly ended at age 34, like most players. Votto had a 4.3 cumulative bWAR over his final 5 years.
Mike – Agreed!
And FTR Soto was nominated for a GG last year.
Vlad doesn’t strike out as other sluggers and takes his walks he will be fine
How many World Series rings does he have ? Even playoff appearances? Huge success ??
LordD99:
How can you be taken seriously when you say it will be Soto’s deal “in a few years?” At least, if you said towards the end of it, that would sound objective. But in a few years? When he’s like 29? Utterly foolish.
A 5th year option, or crutches included in this big phat contract.
Bet you say that 4 or 5 times a year.
Players with that body type just don’t age well.
I mean, maybe its worth it if you look at it as a 8-year contract, and write off the last 5 years as a loss. Maybe his prime is worth it. But one way or another, Vlad Jr. is very unlikely to be any good past his 35th birthday.
So in your opinion what is a good body type? Stanton? Springer? Trout? Ohtani?……..? because from what I have seen none of their “Great Body Type” has helped them stay healthy. Oh and go tell CC Sabathia, David Wells, Brian McCann, Ken Camenitti, Johnny Bench, Benji Molina, David Ortiz, Roger Clemens, and on and on that the minute they had portly bodies they were suppose to be done and their bodies were not suppose to last into their 30s because I think someone forgot to give them the memo.
Not to mention Tony Gwynn and Babe Ruth. Vladdy has literally never missed a game for injury.
I get your point for sure, but Ken Caminitti? Not much mystery about how he stayed “healthy” enough to play into his late 30’s. Same with Clemens and maybe/probably Papi.
Rocket wasn’t fat, he was a damn unit. I don’t think Caminiti was fat either?
McCann, Bench, and Bengie Molina were done at age 35.
I’ll give you Big Papi. His longevity was insane.
In terms of genetics, there is ectomorphs, mesomorphs and endomorphs. Long and thin, athletic and round. You would want to be a meso. Vlad looks like an endo. They just have to work harder to keep the round under control.
Well in case you haven’t noticed Vladdy is not “fat” either
I also didn’t say they were fat.
What I did say was they did not have the “Great Body Type” or they were/became portly and still continued to play and perform.
As for Ken Caminiti you should probably take another look at some of the old footage…..he fits the players I described.
Papi, with a little help?
Ken Caminitti openly admitted to using/abusing steroids, pain pills, amphetamines, etc. He did whatever he had to do to stay on the field. Camera footage of his “body type” proves nothing. He struggled with injuries throughout his 20’s. His 30’s were a product of a pharmaceutical/recreational regimen that eventually took control of his life and led to his death.
You may be too young to remember. But Ken Caminitti is a poor comp for proving Vlad can stay on the field.
Vladdy has literally never missed a game for injury.
==========================
1B/DH types that don’t run, don’t usually get injured.
It appears it is completed now according to reports. 14/500. Crazy length and money. A fallout from the Soto overpay.
I knew this would happen. Everyone kept talking about how he was going to leave the Jays and hoping their team was going to snag him. As soon as he signs, suddenly he’s a garbage player that no one wants anyways.
Since you replied to me, I will say that I think Vlad is a very good player, and will be very good for many years, but the last 5 or so years of his contract will probably resemble the end of Miggy Cabrera’s deal, or Pujols, or Prince Fielder. And in spite of that, he may still be worth $500 million in his prime years.
Tbf, there’s been tons of examples of long-term deals aging poorly anyway in the past 20 years. Vlad is just the most recent one. However, I think teams usually count on the last few years of the contract as a sunk cost anyway. I totally agree with your last point.
Yea this will not age well
The Jays just got worse.
You must have never heard of Anthony Rendon.
I agree with you, may be 5 years down the road or could be less or more but they will regret that deal. They should have traded for prospects.
Boy, did Tucker’s deal just go way up.
Hard to compete with Rendon.
14 years is just insane.
Maybe they’re hoping he’s like his father and can play until he’s 40, but he has a very different body type and his seasons have been uneven. I can see it going south in about five years.
His old man last played at 36.
Fair enough. Even worse!
Realize in most cases the added years are mainly to lower the AAV.
Yep, think of it like you’re agreeing to pay him ~45M for 8 years and then tacking on ~25M per for the final 6 years….even though that’s probably not how it’ll be structured due to the present value of a dollar and luxury tax purposes. The back half is a premium you have to give to get a player to sign for what will surely be his entire career. In today’s market, the one set by NYY and LAD, this is not a bad deal for team or player. For TOR, who controls an entire nation’s worth of fans – market it right and it’ll pay off handsomely – even if age catches up to him 2/3rds of the way through the contract.
Vlad Sr’s last good year came at age 32. In his final 4 years, he had a cum bWAR of 5.2.
Even without considering conditioning, that’s how BB rolls. At age 32, it becomes a simply slope.
I’m guessing that’s just to spread the AAV around for luxury tax purposes. Teams have been doing that a lot lately.
This.
I think people forget about that.
Guessing $520M/14yr with an opt out after 5 years.
It wound up being 14/$500M with no deferrals. If you figure he can be a significant contributor for as long as his dad played, then it’s basically 10/$500M with four years of deferrals where he has a roster spot.
He won’t have a roster spot when he can’t contribute anymore. Either they work out a deal to let him formally retire while still getting paid (this is most likely since they can make it convert to a personal services contract), or he clears waivers and they remain responsible for his salary while he makes a token effort to find another team.
Just like Pujols and Miggy? If signed for 14 years, expect him to play out the contract.
He’s not built like his Dad was. He’s closer to Prince Fielder.
This contract won’t age well. This isn’t about Vladdy’s bat. It’s about preserving the illusion of success after years of failed acquisition strategies, salvaging the public image of a leadership group on the brink, and locking in a tradeable asset before the free agent market or league structure leaves them empty-handed again.
The team should be seeking a trade partner not trying to sign him to some albatross of a contract.
Exactly! Rodgers Communication needs to just say no. They’re getting bad advice from two guys they should have stopped listening to years ago.
Roger’s is probably the driving force for this deal . The timing of the reno getting done , they don’t want to go into a rebuild . We saw this after 16 ,Roger’s wasn’t ready to start a rebuild then after seeing the renewed interest in blue jay baseball so they did half measure in 17 trying to squeeze one more year of ticket sales .
In a few years dont be surprised when it comes out that this was a ownership push
I really hope they sign him. It will be like watching a tragic comedy. The one good takeaway is that fat slow guys don’t usually hurt themselves running into outfield walls or diving for catches. The only way he hits the injury list is if he gives himself a hernia picking up the next pizza slice.
How many contracts that exist now will age well? What a generic lame comment lol this applies to 90%
This contract will be ugly by the early 2030s if not sooner.
If he was as consistent and had the same body type as his dad, this would be money well-spent. But he doesn’t have either, and that doesn’t age well in this sport. He can easily become a Mo Vaughn by his 30s.
$35 million a year for Vladdy is a steal. I just don’t like the 14 years. I would of stopped at 11 or 12 years.
If I believed in him that much I would rather go $60 million a year for 5 years and let him go back to free agency to make the rest.
It sounds crazy, but it’s better than getting stuck with 8-9 years of a contract you don’t want.
That is crazy Don. I say might as well pay 200m for 9 more years. Is he going to get so fat and old he can’t be a 700 ops guy? He has name star power.
Ask any Angels fan.
If you’re valuing him at 60M per for the next 5 years then; is it that much of a problem that they added on another 9 years for the equivalent of 22M$ per? 22M$ per 6 years from now might be the equivalent of 11M$ today. I.E. it’s not that big of a deal.
LMFAO!
Mets fans cry.
Why’s that? Have you not noticed how good Alonso looks this year?
That’s a pretty small sample size. Stats are pretty meaningless at this point in the season. I’m sure he’s had stretches where he’s been this hot for this many games plenty of times before.
If he can keep it up for the length of the season, he’ll opt out and won’t have a QO over him, so he’ll probably be able to command 6/$200M.
Not necessarily. Would rather go after Tucker.
Not if we get Tucker, they should both be about the same overall money wise since Tucker is a couple years older but man can he hit the ball like no other. If it’s between 500 mil and 13-14 years for Vlad or 450 mill for 10 years of Tucker, I’ll gladly take Tucker every day of the week
The only ones who will be crying are Blue Jays fans when their $500 million first baseman starts putting up 2 WAR seasons like he did in 2023.
RobM is a sad boy.
He’ll be traded in a few years anyway.
If the Blue Jays are super lucky.
@DDC
Albatross contract. Overpay investment so that future free agents see Toronto as a viable landing place after a few high profile misses. Despite it being bad for my Orioles, I hope he has a number of good seasons and returns some strong production for the BlueJays. I always respected the professional hitter his Dad was. Wish Junior well.
No one will trade for that contract once its signed.
It must be really nice to be Kyle Tucker right now. He’s probably getting about $600 million now or more.
Yankees or Dodgers?
@Mets Era Thumping Soto
Kansas City Royals
Imagine him behind Witt? That would be great for baseball.
@Mets Era- For some weird reason thinking neither.
I think the Yankees are the favorites. He would be lethal in Yankee stadium.
Mets. If Vladdy is gone, they will toss their money at Tucker. He’d be perfect in center.
Tucker isn’t getting 600+ MM. he’s gonna be 29 after the year. You’re probably looking at a 10-11 year deal at around 45-48 MM a year if he stays healthy. So that’s around 450-530MM in that range I can see him signing for. That’s not counting deferrals which if that’s the case he might hit 600M
I said around $600 million or so, remember it takes only 1 team to make a high offer. Best way for Tuck to get back at the Stros’ for trading him, is to sign with the Rangers. If it becomes a bidding war expect the Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, and the Yankees to all be involved. $580-600 million over 11 or 12 years, with a opt out seems about right for Tuck. The Cubs should try to extend him right now, but they likely won’t.
Detroit has it’s man in Tofk. Not having to chase down another teams former draft pick. and paying sky high prices is so great for Detroit.
Still a bust
Probably not a bust… I’d take the over on 30 homers.
A profanity spewing ticking time bomb bust
Funny, when I came here there were 27 comments, same as Vlad’s number. Good omen? I agree 100% that a $500 mil deal won’t age well, but for the next 5-7 years he’ll be well worth it. After that odds are low. Still, as a Jays fan I’ll happily worry about an old Vlad issue in the 2030’s. Heck, who knows Canada and the USA could be at war by then. Let’s enjoy baseball while we can.
Now there are a thousand one for each strike
I heard Ohtani is on a plane to Toronto…
No worries that plane has no wings or wheels.
This feels like a leaked story to show the fanbase they tried.
@yukongold. Especially since they missed his deadline, And he said he’s testing free agency.
He’s off to a very slow start which should be a cautionary tale for the Blue Jays…let him heat up before talking extensions in the neighborhood of $500M
He is off to a slow start because they have a manger that thinks if he continues to do the same thing long enough he will be right. This is the fourth time he has tried putting Vladdy in the 2 hole and it has not worked yet.
So which is more insane Johnny Ask 5 continuing to do the same thing hoping for a different result or me continuing to watch it and hoping he learned his lesson?
I think it’ll be 15 years/$600M because I can’t imagine him “settling” for $35M and change per year. He supposedly thinks he’s worth $40-$50M per season- unless he’s become realistic about his likely trajectory and he’s been humbled by the bird in hand rather than the two in the bush.
This will ultimately become the story of how Toronto mortgaged the future of the not-good-enough franchise to sign a guy to an absolutely terrible contract and completely regretted it within 3 years but he’s signed for 11 more after that with a full no trade.
At the VERY LEAST don’t give him a NTC. I think the numbers involved will provide enough of a guarantee that he’d never be traded(no one will take take him at that price). Don’t voluntarily put the final nail in the coffin.
It won’t matter if they do because as of April 26th 2029 he will have 10 and 5 rights giving him a NTC anyway
more air quotes in those first few paragraphs than most novels
I’d maybe give him 8 years/$310M w/ a $10M buyout on a $50M club option.
But 15 years at *any* rate is going to be a disaster.
Whether it’s $25M or $50M per season, the overpay won’t be the dollars per, but the years and dollar total.
I can understand if they tack on 1-2 years but that’s still only 9 or 10 years- if they do this deal they are essentially saying they’re paying him over 14 or 15 years for 7 or 8 years of value…
They do this pretty regularly in general-tack on years and dollars to get it done- but this would be the most egregious overpay in baseball history in terms of common sense and statistics clearly warning that this is going to be the worst deal of all time.
The length of the deal is about bringing down the AAV while keeping a home grown franchise player. I don’t think anybody expects Vladdy to perform like 2024 Vladdy when he is 40. Not impossible (see Lebron James) but not likely.
However by keeping him around it gives the team some extra marketability for him becoming the first Blue Jay to _______, or when he hits his _______ homerun/RBI/hit and eventually when he goes to the HOF he will wear a Blue Jays cap and as of today he would be only the second? one to do so.
Worst deal of all time? Chris Davis and Robinson Cano would like a word
Anthony Rendon would like a word or Stephen Stratsburg.
Bonnilla will be getting paid til 2035!
Yeah but that’s relative peanuts compared to others. All in all the Mets are gonna pay him 23.8 MM more than they had to. That’s like 2/3 of a seasons worth of pay for Stratsburg who pitched a total of 30 innings for 7 years and 245MM. And Rendon who played 257 total games for 245MM.
Bonilla is not within 1,000 miles of the worst contracts of all time. The Mets also used that money that they deferred to acquire Mike Hampton. When Hampton left in FA, they used their comp pick to draft David Wright.
500 M / 10 years
20 M / year for 10 years
30 M deferred for each of the next 10 years
Gives the team flexibility to build the team around him and lower the lux tax and the player gets a record Avv for a long term with the 500M they are searching.
350/10 That’s my max.
He declines? Trade him and build around bo and the pitching.
Bo has been very clear that he gone.
I wont miss him.
I’m glad they locked him. People will talk about this contract not aging well, but the Blue Jays have a star player signed long term. That’ll bring in money and kids will grow up loving this guy. It’s good for baseball.
It’s not the contract that won’t age well. It’s Vlad that won’t age well.
Maybe, but none of that changes my point. The Mets fans were giving this guy a standing ovation. NY radio was debating if the Yankees or Mets would pursue him harder. Now, the Jays got their guy. I like to see that.
Now trade Bo to Braves
Holy cow they did it!
nytimes.com/athletic/6234442/2025/04/07/vladimir-g…
The Jays are a last place team with Vlad… might as well take all that money and get multiple pieces to help the team. $500M wasted. Yes he’s a good player and i dont get all the hate on this site towards Vlad, but he can’t do it all himself.
To leverage his prime years, they’ll have to hit on their player development in pretty short order. Kind of like Boston. They didn’t really tank and draft high for a bunch of years. Even their big trades like the Mookie trade didn’t bring in major building blocks. It was a player development success getting all these young guys to the majors or on the doorstep. Of course, we haven’t seen them be great yet, but it kind of feels like they’re about to be.
The Jays don’t have the feel of an organization about to suddenly develop a bunch of high end talent. They do okay with moving the high floor low impact guys along. But it’s hard to see where the impact will come from. They do of course have a bunch of money coming off the books over the next couple of years. But roster building completely in free agency is not a sustainable plan.
Finally!
Someone that really is OK playing in Toronto!
Next…work on the acting skills to improve the crustables commercials.
He should really reach out and buy Hazel an umbrella now.
Is he really ok playing in Toronto if they have to give him that contract to get him to stay? Where’s the hometown discount?
Insane contract. Vlad will not age well…he already doesn’t take care of himself like he should now. Jays won’t win with this move. Also, the contracts in sports are outrageous…and us as the consumer loses because we foot the bill. Yuck.
He plays everyday. Might be a .780 OPS but he posts and gotta give him credit for that
“Doesn’t take care of himself like he should now” How do you know that? Because he’s big? Silly comment.
Smart deal for free agent reputation, ancillary sales/profits and treating a homegrown superstar appropriately.
He’s right at the 94 EV mark he maintained last season, so his improvements have stuck around. Sure, his body type and one dimensional contributions leave this contract looking like a front half investment, but $35 mil won’t be as big of a percentage against future higher tax penalty thresholds.
This deal gets a solid B and probably would have been more in the C range if a FA signing, but the homegrown merchandising and reputational bump has to be considered.
Literally why, the guy has 1 great season, 1 good season and a bunch of mid and he looks horrible so far this year
I’m a little leery of the contract but Vlad is very fun to watch and cheer for. The fact he was born in Canada helps too
Plus $35M a year in 10 to 12 years will be much less of an outlier.
Tucker now thinking $600MM.
As a Cubs fan, I already know he’s gone.
Not a chance, Tucker will be 3 years older than Vlad and Soto. 400 maybe
The Jays better hope they don’t get the 2022-23 Vladdy for those 14 years. Vladdy has little or no defensive and baserunning value, so this is a pure play on his bat. Which has been inconsistent over the years, to put it mildly. Good luck, guys.
Love it. We haven’t seen his best yet. Ups and downs are part of baseball but a career superstar is a big thing for any MLB franchise.
These decade+ long contracts are ridiculous.
This guy no longer has any reason to get, and then stay in shape. His bat – which is the only thing of value he possesses – is inconsistent.
Ridiculous contract.
Financially, maybe not. But you don’t think this son-of-a-bigleaguer doesn’t have incentive to hit dingers, win ballgames, and be loved by the fans?
Major leaguers aren’t lazy like internet commenters
Bingo. Which is why they are in the bigs, and Luis is hitting dingers on his couch.
Financially? Absolutely! They should let him become a FA, offer him $50MM/2 over the next highest bidder, and save a ton of money.
Plot twist, it’s 500 mil Canadian
I was about to say this exact thing lol
Lots of fans who wanted this guy next free agency now trying to insult the Jays because the same contract “won’t age well.”
Get a grip. No contracts age well.
Toronto locked up our boy, suck on it haters!
Oh brother. Are you 12 or 13?
This effectively makes Vladdy a Blue Jay for life, which has to please the majority of the fan base while also guarenteeing that he isn’t playing in LA or New York next season, which is also a win for MLB.
I wonder though is there money to keep Bichette (do they even want to?) or can we count the days til he’s either traded or signs elsewhere next winter…
Blue Jays are simply going along with the national mood to Buy Canadian
Some of you all have ridiculous takes. All off-season there were a few fans of the larger market teams that have the ability to make the mega contact signings claimed their team wasn’t interested in giving Pete Alonso a deal because they knew they could sign Vlad to a huge multi year contract next year.
Fast forward to now and the same fans want to call Toronto foolish for locking Vlad up for the rest of his career. Now those teams are better off because they might be able to sign Kyle Tucker next year instead of Vlad. Can’t wait to see the reversal on Tucker if the Cubs somehow lock him up for the long term and he doesn’t hit free agency and become available.
People would take your opinions a lot more serious and respect them if you had a little consistency.
Those.were.not.the.same.people.
Joe is taking on the Internet. Joe is not going to win.
Seems like he left a lot of cash on the table. Good for the jays.
I think Guerrero, Jr. had some kind of moment of clarity or maybe his dad pointed out some logical fallacies of aiming to break certain records on a contract when even not doing that it’s still a record breaking amount of money in some context.
I always wonder about the AAV vs the total vs the number of years when a total dollar amount divides fractionally per year overall.
Like, his contract could come out to a total of $499,999,990 and be exactly $35,714,285 and or they could go to a total of $500,000,005 or $35,714,286 OR maybe it’s like 14 years/$490M w/ a $10M signing bonus, etc.?
Is Vlad worth this contract? IMO no… did Toronto HAVE to get this deal done with every free agent they’ve tried to lure as of late saying no thanks? IMO 100% yes. $500 mil is the number that pays Vlad what his market value, plus a tax fir making him play in Canada I guess.
So Prince Fielder Part 2 just got the hook up. This will set the Bluejays back even further in the division shelling out that much money over the next decade + for one player.
Explain how he’s like prince fielder? don’t say weight.
The fact your rebuttal is “don’t say weight” is the proof. This is a disaster contract and it will be a huge downfall for the future of the organization. He will end up finishing his career with the Giants or Rockies as an overweight and out of shape player who the Bluejays trade for a few prospects in Single A that won’t amount to anything.
@Jose
calling him “out of shape” is crazy, dude has muscle, surely more than you.
In fact, if he’s overweight and out of shape….some of the best players all time were out of shape and overweight, and were still good.
You cant say this is a disaster contract right now, because you cant tell the future.
At this point you’re just being a hater, and I sense a lot of jealousy too.
He finished top the in ROY, top ten in MVP two times, and he’s a 4 time all star in his 7 years in the league so far.
aside from his rookie year, he’s never had an OPS+ below 115, and he already has a 21 career WAR, and is on pace to have a higher war than both prince fielder AND David ortiz (who were both overweight and “out of shape”.
Vlad has had no signs of slowing down his offensive production, but…his defense is pretty mediocre and his speed is subpar, despite having a good base running value.
his exit velocity’s and bat speed are both close to elite, and he doesn’t strikeout a ton and his on base abilities are good.
I advise you go check out his savant page for this year, and past years of his career.
as of right now, this contract is good, Vlad is a great hitter, mediocre fielder with subpar speed.
We’ll see how he does this season and we will come back to these comments.
Yes, this is a lot for any player but given the current economics, they had to and got this deal done. Soto broke baseball. Good for Jays fans here!
I’m not a fan of mega contracts. His weight going to age well? A 1b.
Age is great. Hard hit data great. Last season great.
Going to go C. They paid the price. I hear Toronto taxes stink. Players don’t want to go there for some reason so if not taxes it’s something. I feel like in free agency if NY LA offered him 400 TOR would have to do 500. So I am viewing this as a 400 deal. They remodeled. They failed to get big free agents. They did what they had to do. I think there’s better ways to spend half a billion. Not a premium position. Risky that he won’t age well.
Scary contract. If he keeps healthy and hitting hard it will work out great. They know his work ethic.
Players hate the metric system. That’s the reason!
Shapiro & Atkins just saved their jobs. Now they have to decide what they want to do with Bichette
I ran to the comments so fast I’m out of breath! I knew I wouldn’t be disappointed by the amount of hateful sons of bitches 😆😆🥹
It’s amazing the same crew who constantly bash the jays front office for not doing anything and bungling the whole situation are the SAME folks that are bashing the signing.
I love my armchair GM’s they make my day!
Respect your loyalty – just promise to post your thoughts in 2031
So you react to everything that doesn’t matter. Brilliant recipe for success in life. Keep up the great work.
$500,000,000 over 14 years for an overweight first baseman? Prince Fielder anyone?
@mute
fielder and Vlad are two completely different builds and players.
This is great news for the rest of the AL East. Cripples the Jays for a decade.
I’ll say it again… Guerrero Jr. is Lazy and is brutal running the bases ! And not worth it….
shapiro and his lackie atkins must be fired !!
As a Lifelong over 50 years Mets Fan, This makes me happy! Tired of hearing the rumors. The Mets need pitching. The rest will be just fine!
Tired of reading material that you’re not forced to read. Brilliant.
It’s hard to envision a 14 year contract aging well, regardless of the dollars.
If he doesn’t end up with 500 HRs this contract will be pretty horrible. Which sounds nuts, but he’s only got 340 more to go. Thats 25 per year. If he can’t average that — it’s probably falling short.
Of course maybe he hits .320 and becomes a line drive hitter. It’s still hard to envision this ending up well for anything other than Vlads bank account.
I think this is too risky of a deal… here’s why, 2nd highest present day value to a guy who has shown dipping in his performance and truly can only play 1B and DH (so minimal fielding value if any in a couple years into the contract. I acknowledge that his “downs” in performance are still elite compared to others… but is it better that Ohtani just behind Soto elite? No.. I’d argue it’s a tier down. And last and probably the most important reason for this deal is his body. He’s done a decent job of trimming up in recent years but weight management has been a chronic problem for him and those who struggle with that breakdown in performance faster all else being equal. People will point at David Ortiz as a comparison against me, but there is a clear difference. Ortiz was big and muscle thick. VG is baby weight looking big… meaning a lot of extra fat behind it
Silly Blue Jays.
That isn’t how NPV works, and I wish these reporters would stop getting this wrong. The league is treating deferred money differently for AAV purposes, but that doesn’t change NPV. Ohtani has an NPV around $460M, Soto’s is around $639M and Vlad’s is around $415M. It is for these reasons that NPV should be the measure for AAV, not a system that applies one set of rules to one type of contract and a different set to others.
It’s just math, anyone can do it: bsky.app/profile/sandykazmir.bsky.social/post/3lm7…
too many years, I don’t think he will age well
The idea the contract won’t age well doesn’t consider the context. Few players age well into their mid thirties. That doesn’t mean their contract doesn’t. No team is expecting prime performances on the back half of a deal like this. It’s just accounting. Some teams can do high AAV short term deals when they have a young affordable core. Like Boston with Bregman. Bregman’s deal is over when the young guys’ salaries start to climb. Toronto isn’t really in that stage. They signed Vlad (and to a lesser extent took on Gimenez and extended Kirk who are both young) to be the young core because they don’t really have one emerging from the farm. In Vlad’s case, stretching it gives them more money to help add around him in his prime years.
If you like $/WAR calculations, this probably doesn’t look like a great deal unless you think he’s going to be a great player deep into the contract which is unlikely. But if you believe a player who can anchor an offense is a rare commodity, then you probably see more value in it. On top of that is the business situation. Vlad might not be worth this contract in projected on field value but there’s a part of this deal that has to be about business. The team is big business. This is probably less about drawing new fans in the way Ohtani or Soto would have been and more about avoiding a jumping off point for what has been a large loyal, even if disgruntled fanbase at a time when they’ve made major investments in the team both on and off the field.
Pending a physical? He been with them everyday for the last2 months? They don’t know his health?
It’s standard for a new contract signing. Getting the contract insured also requires one.
Good luck with that
Congrats Jays fans!
They’ll regret not giving him opt-outs after the 5th or 6th year.
Need proof of life confirmation re: Jays FO. Hope Guerrero’s agents release the hostages after the deal is signed.
Oops
damn, I just told my brother last Wednesday that Arizona would sign him. prediction denied.
Good idea.