The Red Sox announced this afternoon that they’ve optioned infielder Vaughn Grissom and pitchers Luis Guerrero and Josh Winckowski to minor league camp. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel first reported the Grissom move. Boston also reassigned non-roster invitees Nathan Hickey and Mark Kolozsvary.
Grissom entered spring in the mix for Boston’s Opening Day second base job. He and David Hamilton were trying to hold off top middle infield prospects Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer. The Alex Bregman signing muddled the picture, but it seems the Sox intend to keep the longtime third baseman at the hot corner.
Bregman hasn’t played any second base this spring. Manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Chad Jennings of The Athletic) that the Sox don’t intend to get Rafael Devers any third base reps in camp. With Masataka Yoshida expected to open the season on the injured list, Devers will probably start the year as a full-time designated hitter while Bregman handles third.
Acquired from the Braves for Chris Sale in the 2023-24 offseason, Grissom had a rough first year with the Sox. He missed time with strains in both hamstrings and didn’t hit when healthy. He managed a .190/.246/.219 slash without a home run in 114 MLB plate appearances. Hamilton jumped him for the majority of the second base playing time down the stretch. Grissom spent a good chunk of the year at Triple-A Worcester.
A healthy offseason provided some hope that the 24-year-old would recapture the promising offensive form he has shown in the minors. He didn’t show much in camp, though, as he hit .176 without a homer in 14 games. He’s no longer in the running for a spot on the Opening Day roster. He’ll begin the year back in Worcester. Grissom has an excellent .307/.408/.459 slash in nearly 700 Triple-A plate appearances over the last two seasons. His plate discipline still makes him an intriguing player, but he has dropped down the organization’s middle infield depth chart.
Hamilton, Campbell and Mayer remain on the major league side of camp. The lefty-swinging Hamilton is the only member of that trio who is on the 40-man roster or has MLB experience. He hit .248/.303/.395 with eight homers and 33 stolen bases over 98 games last season. He has swiped five more bases with a pair of homers while batting .239 over 18 games this spring.
Mayer and Campbell are generally ranked among the top prospects in the sport. Mayer, who hasn’t played in Triple-A, hit .307/.370/.480 over 335 Double-A plate appearances last season. He’s hitting .357/.438/.536 in an impressive spring showing. Mayer has never played second base in the minors — all but two of his appearances have come at shortstop — but he’s getting reps on the right side of the bag in camp. Trevor Story is locked in at shortstop, so it makes sense to get Mayer reps at other positions.
Campbell is primarily a second baseman who has experience in the outfield and at third base. He improved his stock more than any other minor leaguer last season. The 2023 fourth-rounder hit .330/.439/.558 to reach Triple-A in his first full professional season. He has had a tough Spring Training. Campbell has fanned in a third of his plate appearances while batting .158 in 45 plate appearances. While that doesn’t mean much for his prospect status, it’s something the Sox will need to weigh as they decide whether he should break camp.
Here comes the people going to start comparing the sale trade to the great bambino
Babe Sale
At the time, it made sense. Boston fans were crying because they wanted to get rid of an injured Sale. No one expected him to be what he was. I loved Sale, so I personally was indifferent, but I understood the move and don’t blame Breslow for taking a chance. If we had Sale last year, we still probably don’t make the postseason.
There were plenty of Red Sox fans not wanting to get rid of Sale. We did not have much of a pitching staff when they made that trade. Nobody could have expected that kind of year from Sale, but what they got for him was so minimal it was embarrassing. I am glad he had an amazing year. He certainly showed management what a terrible trade it was. I hope that Grissom finds success at the major league level at some point, not his fault he was all we got for Sale.
Some team will take a chance.
I was not for getting rid of Sale. He had a full healthy offseason and I expected him to pitch great but maybe not that great. Had they kept him they could’ve nabbed a wild card spot. That trade was totally embarrassing, they paid the Braves 18m to take a Cy Young winner lmao
Sounds pretty credible coming from a guy dubbed as the “ghost of Mookie Betts.” Sheesh.
You claim there were many fans not wanting to get rid of Sale. You’re right, I was one of them. But there were just as many complainers saying Sale was useless after an injury ridden year. Go back and look at the Grissom thread when the trade happened and I’m sure this will check out. So many fans can’t admit their change either.
Try looking at this thread: mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/braves-red-sox-trade-ch…
It’s about half and half but certainly people thought the trade was pretty fair when it happened. Not so much now
I bet on Sale to win Cy Young. Didn’t expect it but thought it was possible obviously. He’s been a great pitcher when healthy. No reason to think he would never be healthy again.
A chance? On Who?… Grissom is going to AAA. He wasn’t released.
What I wrote at the time.
We needed starters with Sale in the rotation. We now need two more. Anything short of getting two more quality starters makes this move a head scratcher. I honestly only expected Sale this coming year to be the guy that gave us an all star caliber year out of our starters. He should be healed, and control was his issue coming off injuries, not stuff. I expect a major trade and signing to justify this. If Grissom pans out as a productive defensive and offensive starting second baseman over the next 5 years I can see this move with the additional two pitchers.
Where was he in the playoffs…….
Anyone saying the Sale trade was an embarrassment is being incredibly revisionist.
While I also didn’t like the trade at the time because I figured Sale could be productive for 150 innings last year (mid 3 ERA would have been the hope) and I didn’t like Grissom’s profile at all, there’s really no argument that Sale was worth tangibly more than what the Sox got in the trade, especially considering he was on an expiring contract (remember the Braves extended Sale before last season even started).
Sale hadn’t even been mostly healthy and in top form since 2018. There was real world evidence that his CY form was a thing of the past.
Sox figured getting something was better than nothing and the Sox were also not planning on being a playoff team last year. So while it’s not what I would have done, it’s only an embarrassment if, at the time, you thought the Sox were going to be a playoff team, sign him to an extension, and he was going to pitch like an ace again. And you better bring your receipts if you’re going to make that case.
We can agree to disagree. They desperately needed pitching, even with questions about how healthy Sale was, trading him was raising the red flag for being competitive (granted they had a better season than I would have expected). They also handed the Braves $17 million to make the trade. They got back an infield prospect with more offensive potential than defensive skills (not providing them with an area they needed with Campbell and Mayer waiting in the wings as well as having Hamilton to bridge the gap). Next they go out and get Giolito and we know how that has gone. Keeping Sale instead of getting Giolito would have saved money and he could have been traded at the deadline for much more than they got if they were not in contention (assuming he had a year even remotely close to the one with the Braves). That is my take, you are welcome to disagree. If Giolito comes back from the injury and has a Cy Young type year, I will rethink my position.
I’m not disagreeing. I liked Sale and miss him but I understand Breslow’s motive and direction for trading him. That’s all I’m saying. Im pretty indifferent about the move, to be honest. I also think Grissom might be better than he has been soon enough. Not saying he will be worth the trade by any means, but there’s no guarantee any of the second base guys will work out.
But you are overlooking the context here… for three years straight, Sale was a liability. He was a fantastic pitcher but had many unlucky stints of injuries. There was no guarantee on him pitching again at all for us.
I’m 50/50 on it and don’t think I’ll ever choose a side.
You also have to remember that Sale had his first fully healthy offseason with full baseball activities in years, he was a HoF pitcher before the injuries with an insatiable desire to compete AND the Red Sox desperately needed pitching.
Plenty on both sides cheered and ridiculed this trade. Braves fans loved Grissom. Sale said he would have traded himself too. It is what it is. I like that they took a chance. Hopefully the Sox can make something of him.
“I’ll take worst baseball trade in modern history for $500, Alex.”
Hindsight is 20/20 when talking about trading a 35 year old pitcher on an expiring contract coming off 4 straight seasons of reduced production and health issues for a team that wasn’t expecting to be all that competitive.
Wake me up when Sale hits a home run.
Blue – You beat me to it!
Lol
You’ll be waiting longer for a Grissom home run.
let – That reminds me of Lester. I loved the guy, but never have I seen a worse hitter. Hitless in his career 41 PA’s with the Red Sox.
I’m glad (I think) to be old enough to witness the legendary Ron Herbel at the plate. 6-for-206 (.029) lifetime with 125 Ks.
let – Wow, his numbers are amazingly bad! I’m surprised I never heard of him …. and I was alive for part of his career.
sad – Ruth was a sale, not a trade. And yes I see the irony of that sentence. LOL!!
And there’s zero chance of Sale becoming the game’s greatest hitter for 15 years.
Was it a horrific trade? It’s sure looking that way.
You talking about the guy who was hurt and couldn’t pitch in the playoffs last year?
Ghost – I’m talking about the Triple Crown Cy Young winner who carried the Braves to the postseason.
None of the Braves we’re healthy last year.
Tough break for Vaughn. Hopefully he can rebound
Ghost – Agreed! I called all this happening with Vaughn, Devers, Bregman and Yoshida … but so did many others. Red Sox are so predictable, they don’t even bother trying to mask their intentions.
Poor Devers won’t be able to keep up his leading the league in errors at 3rd base since 2018. How will he survive with Bergman at 3rd now?
nailclippers: He would survive better with BERGMAN, whoever that is, than with BREGMAN.
Blue – Myself and longtime Tigers fans know who Dave Bergman is.
Unless nailclippers meant Ingrid, who was quite the vixen. She was back in the day way back in the day.
FPG: I remember Dave Bergman as well, but he had no connection to the Red Sox.
Blue – Okay I agree with you, let’s go with Ingrid then.
Blue included… Dave Bergman… nice glove and my defensive replacement at first from my ol strato-matic days!!! By any chance did either of you see the Standing ovation my guy got starting the 9th for Cubs in game 1?? My cubby friends said it was for Ohtani… not RB… told them they don’t know baseball sheshhh…..
I don’t get up at 6 am for anything except an emergency. That didn’t qualify.
Yup working graveyard… pretty cool watching at 530… only can stay awake till 630 tho… would love to see a patriots day game!!!
olm – One of the things I remember the most about Bergie is Philly traded him and Willie Hernandez to the Tigers for Wockenfuss and Glenn “Don’t Call Me Hack” Wilson.
What a steal for the Tigers! Wock was out of baseball after one decent season, and Willie became a star in Motown.
Nope I did not see Brasier’s standing ovation, I start work early each day so no morning TV for me.
BTW – Did you see Sale’s tribute to El Tiante? It was awesome!!!
olm – That’s an age-old debate I’ve had with people, if I ever worked third shift would I sleep before work or after. I know it’s harder to sleep during daylight, but that’s what I’d choose. Too much going on in the evening to sleep thr0ugh it, including 80% of the Sox games.
I’ve worked in Mass, and Patriot’s Day was a company holiday so I went to the game just about every year …. EXCEPT 2013, thankfully.
John Wockenfuss!!! Remember him well with Tigers.. and of course Willie won Cy and MVP in 84… funny when he was with cubs before hand he couldn’t get anybody out.. reminds me of.. oh never mind…. As for patriots day… when kid was at BC she would tell me that it was a big thing to cheer runners on… as they passed,I said have fun with that , I want to be on monster with a Sam’s summer in hand!! Maybe someday…
olm – Last time I was on the Monster, we were downing Sam’s “Wicked Easy” …. it’s so damn good!! Wish I could post my pics of all our empties sitting on the wall overlooking the field.
live.staticflickr.com/65535/52231320485_0297bbe071…
You can do both on Patriot’s Day ya know ….. after the game, head over toward the Pru to watch the runners cross the finish line. That’s what we always did since we always parked at The Pru.
In 79, the Cubs’ managers had a pen of Bruce Sutter, Bill Caudill, Donnie Moore, Dick Tidrow and Willie Hernandez and still couldn’t figure out how to manage it. This should emphasize that only a good manager can manage a bullpen.
Wonder if we’ll ever see him again in the majors. Sometimes guys have a string of injuries and are gone from the game for too often in too short amount of time and that’s it.
SODOMOJO: It’s not as tragic as you make it sound. Often that happens because some guys are not meant to become stars.
I can’t respond to Fever because he’s blocked me but how do you know Rafaela hasn’t reached his potential yet? And how do you know Campbell is the real deal? Lots of assumptions made.
From your username I take it you never heard of an ad blocker.
How can I? This site is loaded. It’s like a parasite. They’re making it tough for me to pay 10 dollars a month. You shouldn’t give money to someone who floods you with ads.
My username makes sense, but that guy has to explain his “ghost of Mookie Betts” comment, otherwise he seems like a salty fan.
And you’re another one with a chip on your shoulder, an MLBTR-can-do-no-wrong. Well, congrats to you.
No chip on my shoulder. Just trying to help, I see no ads on this site.
Ads pop up every time, how can you not see them? Sorry, I thought you were attacking me…
Download adblocker plus.
Sodom – I think we will, but probably with another team.
Keep in mind if there’s an injury to an outfielder or to Story, Campbell could replace them with Grissom getting called up.
Campbell is what Rafaela was supposed to be.
Campbell flashes on the screen on defense, hits for contact, great plate discipline and will take a walk, plus speed, what’s not to love? He’s on my radar for sure I’ve been watching him all spring and I’m in man. He’s a bit lost looking at some of the stuff of the new pitchers but I think once he settles in you’ll see those offensive numbers creep up to his minor league comparisons. And man he’s just fun to watch play even when he’s not hitting
SODOM – I think his earlier hitting struggles was because they were shifting him around the field. Once they decided to use him exclusively at 2B his hitting improved.
There’s another reason why they are fast-tracking him … unlike Roman, Campbell is interested in an extension. So they probably want to see how he fares against MLB pitching.
I’m also high on Abreu and it’s ironic that Abreu and Campbell could end both end up being far more valuable than Cedanne. We’ll see how Abreu responds to his kid being born I think that stress and extra work helped kill JP Crawford’s season last year.
SODOM – Me too, I’m a huge Abreu fan.
I didn’t know he just had a kid, thanks! Yeah it definitely takes it toll, especially if the kid doesn’t sleep much at night.
I don’t think Rafaela has had his breakout year yet… give it time, he’s still young and had one year under his belt
How’s Roman Anthony looking ?
Cleopatra has been impressed.
Roman Anthony was as great a leader as American Washington
Bregman signing really hurt Grissom’s chances. He was quite a threat as a very young player, and seems to have been able to beat AAA, hope he gets a chance for regular playing time in the MLB sometime soon.
Bregman is playing 3B. Mayer, Campbell and Hamilton are hurting Grissom’s chances.
None of those guys hurt Grissom’s chances, he’s a utility guy. His chance was never realistic.
Joe – Exactly!!!
Just like last year with Rafaela, Sox management went into ST fixated on Campbell making the team as a starter. Nothing Grissom could have done would have prevented that.
Druuuuu – Agreed he had some offensive potential, but his defense has always been questioned.
The Braves tried him at shortstop, he failed there.
They tried him at second base, he failed there.
They were planning to try him in the outfield next.
And yet the Sox traded for him anyway, go figure.
Rookie mistake by a rookie HOBO who was being pressured by clowns.
I have said it before and I will say it again. From an overall perspective the best opening alignment for the Sox is Bregman 2B, Devers 3B, and Yoshida DH. The projected WAR numbers of all the alternatives make that clear. Cora stubbornly torpedoed that possibility by refusing to play Bregman at 2B even one inning this spring, which was sheer idiocy on his part. So now we are left with (1) Yoshida artificially on the IL even though per Cora himself he is one of our best bats and is proving that this spring; (2) Devers being hugely devalued from a market perspective and hugely pissed off from a personal perspective by being moved to DH; and (3) Erickson being awarded 2B based on 19 AAA games and an impotent spring performance. Brilliant! There is no possible way that the supposed 9 run annual defensive difference between Bregman and Devers at 3B possibly justifies the offensive loss of swapping Erickson in for Yoshida, even assuming that Erickson would equal Bregman defensively at 2B, which is highly questionable. Honestly this feels like a conclusion Breslow/Cora jumped to in February and are now wedded to no matter what. Ridiculous on the actual numbers and projections.
Ahh….
The opening of another MLB season is just around the corner!
We can tell because here come the comments from upset diehard Red Sox fans telling us how stupid their FO and manager are and how cheap their owner is.
It’s like Punxsutawney Phil emerging from his hole in the ground and seeing his shadow – which foretells the beginning of Spring.
Who is Erickson? Stop looking at WAR to evaluate a lineup. It’s just stupid. Anyone who has watched Devers knows he hurts the team big time at third. What about the pitching staff who gets tired by late July because of extra pitches caused by the worst infield defense? Injuries happen and this will play out. It has to though start with Devers off third.
WAR is what shows you the best why Devers was hurting the Red Sox by playing at 3B.
Out. in my opinion, WAR is subjective as our our eyes but for me, it just takes watching to understand Devers cannot continue at third.
who the h*ck is erickson?
So sorry must have had a senior moment in saying Erickson when I meant Campbell. Yikes that is scary for a lot of reasons please forgive me. In any event what is correct is that the numbers do not support the lore that swapping Bregman in for Devers at 3B is worth the offensive loss of replacing Yoshida with Campbell (or “Erickson” for that matter). You say don’t look at WAR — what else would a rational person look at? The Fangraphs projected WAR numbers very clearly prove up my point on this.
No worries, I’m just teasing!
I understand the point you’re making— I love Fangraph’s analytical breakdown of everything, but I’m not sure the WAR projections on their own make the case. That’s a weaker defensive team, with Devers at 3B. The team has been trending towards higher GB% from their pitchers, and their infield defense needs to be a strong for them to be their most effective.
Yoshida is a good, if streaky, hitter. But he’s about as redundant as a player can be on this team.
Doug – You shoulda just gone with the longtime Twins and Orioles pitcher Scott Erickson.
The Red Sox already have Dave (or Ingrid) Bergman on the team, so Scott Erickson would fit right in.
yeah – Last year when Yoshida was healthy from mid-April thru mid-August he put up an .866 OPS.
Without him in the lineup, Bregman needs to put up similar numbers to prevent the Sox from having an offensive decline.
Fever, you know this so it’s not for you. Baseball is a team sport and having Bregman next to Story should solidify that side of the infield and make both better defensively. If Yoshida stays and plays left, it will weaken the OF but the infield is more important in my view.. The team has sucked defensively in the IF under Cora and to an extent I’ve blamed him for the fundamental mistakes. With Bregman at third I’m expecting far less.
Projections don’t prove anything. They aren’t real. What does is past performance. Devers has been so bad on defense at 3B that his WAR would have been higher each of the last 2 years if he had been the DH. He provided less wins by playing in the field than by just hitting.
Yoshi will start the year on the IL. He still can’t throw any further than 60 feet and is only doing soft toss. That won’t get the ball to the cut off man.
When he was healthy he was not a great hitter. He is a platoon player because he can’t hit LHP.
Key word is “projected.”
What about UCLA’s and the Lakers’ Keith Erickson? Wonder if he was a two sport guy.
dewey – Yes without question the left side of the infield should be solid now, and infield is definitely more important than left field which is the 2nd-least important defensive position behind only first base.
The question is, does the improved defense on the left side of the infield benefit the team if left field defense is weakened AND overall team offense goes downhill.
I just don’t like making assumptions.
Devers transitioning well to fulltime DH is not a guarantee.
And who is the odd man out with Yoshida playing LF? Rafaela? Or Anthony? That is the big question.
If we could pick the best stretches of a player to represent their baseline, Boston would have a team of all-stars; Yoshida had a .783 OPS in 2023, .765 in 2024. Slightly above average hitter, poor fielder.
He will turn 32 this year, I don’t think his best days are ahead of him. They need to use his roster spot to audition their top prospects.
Another way I see it: if Devers is at DH, and the infield is set, which OF do we take time away from to work Yoshida (projected FG WAR .5-1.5) into the lineup?
– Duran is an all-star, currently their best hitting OF; FG projected WAR 3.5
– Abreu is a similar hitter by OPS, and is a GG RF; FG projected WAR 1.5-2.5
– Rafaela is their best defensive player, has looked much better at the plate this spring, and was their firestarter last year; FG projected WAR between between 1.5-2.2
In the fold:
– Rob Refsnyder, for some reason, is still with the team
– Roman Anthony will be called up at some point this season, needs somewhere to play
My ideal roster would probably have Refsnyder cut, and use Yoshida as a bench/platoon piece, once he’s healthy enough to field.
yeah – One of my favorite mantras is “Look beyond the numbers”.
For instance, at the start of 2023 Yoshida was brand new to America and MLB. There was bound to be a required adjustment period to start the season, no different than a rookie like Casas who started that same season horribly.
At the end of 2023 Yoshida was physically run down, not being used to the rigors of MLB life compared to the less taxing Japanese baseball.
Last year he had a hand injury that he was still suffering from when he returned, and his shoulder got worse toward the end of the season.
So I’m not necessarily basing my projection on just his “best stretch”, I’m basing it on how he’s performed when healthy. It would be silly to make projections without factoring in health. Same as Casas and his ribs. Same as Devers and his shoulder.
Did you also make predictions on Sale’s 2024 season based on his entire 2023 & 2022 performance?
Fever, I think you’ve only got half the story there.
What you’d want to do is compare the possible upgrade at 2B in offense, plus what bregman gives, to what you lost from 2B last year, plus what Yoshida gave.
Aside from that you’re pretty much rolling out similar lineups – I don’t think backup C will chance the offense profile one drop.
Then there’s intangibles like story getting back on track, or some of last year’s breakout performances in the OF maybe coming back towards earth.
I just don’t think it’s as simple as bregman equals/surpasses Yoshida or we see offensive decline. That’s how what you said reads to me, but, I’m also pretty sure that’s not your argument for the offensive whole. Maybe just that one piece, not accounting for improvements elsewhere. And, my heads not the clearest at the moment anyways.
Meanwhile, on the subject of Bregman, given the Cs sale announced today, I wonder if the purse strings opened more for bregman because FSG/Henry had learned they were firmly out of the running to buy the Cs?
Refsnyder is still with the team due to his dirt cheap salary and role as extra insurance while a solid performer especially his somewhat strong platoon split
While *not* a fair comparison for both defensive and offensive reasons, Bobby D hit bombs and destroyed milb pitching. And yet….
To a much lesser degree, we had a guy names JBJ who always pretty much had great numbers in the minors, yet…
Point is, I’d like to see what happens. I’m bullish on Anthony, but, I’ve watched too many years of too many sox teams to count on a player before he actually gives us something.
Then again, anyone remember the career arc of Grady Sizemore? Sad story to me, but, not everyone works out like a mookie betts.
Fpg, not sure how the offense is worse with a better hitter than Yoshida playing both at DH and in LF.
Duran >> Yoshida
Devers >> Yoshida
After seeing him play this spring and in Portland I would even say Mayer > Yoshida.
Yoshida won’t play LF for a month or more, if ever. Did you hear Cora yesterday? Yoshida is still doing soft toss and the expectation is that he will start the season on the IL.
Baseball – There’s two possible scenarios:
1) Yoshida gets healthy enough to play LF
2) Yoshida gets traded (seriously doubt he’ll be released)
In the first scenario, it all depends which OF’er is the odd man out – Roman, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela. Most would agree they would be downgrading the offense if it’s any of the first three players that are sent packing.
In the second scenario, it would be Bregman and ONLY Bregman who would be forcing Yoshida off the roster. Considering Bregman has got a .795 OPS over the past 5 years, replacing a healthy Yoshida’s offense with Bregman’s offense would almost definitely be a downgrade.
Not sure what you mean by “better hitter at DH & LF”.. The DH would be Devers, who has been on the team since 2017. Devers won’t be a “better hitter” than he has been, but it’s certainly possible he could be a worse hitter with the new role.
You’re making it sound like the Sox would have a better overall offense with Yoshida gone. No, they would not UNLESS Bregman reverts back to 2017-2019 form and Devers transitions well into fulltime DH.
Bottom line: The best offensive team would be Bregman at 2B, Devers at 3B, Yoshida at DH, and Mayer/Abreu/Duran in the outfield.
But I’m positive that won’t scenario won’t happen.
GaSox – I was referring strictly to an offensive team downgrade based on just the players directly involved (Bregman, Devers, Yoshida, one of the OF’ers)..
Yes the remaining hitters could have big improvements. I’ve been very bullish on Casas, Story, Duran and Abreu and somewhat bullish on Campbell. Even Hamilton, if you could add his stolen bases to his OPS he’d be a decent hitter.
The only hitters I’m somewhat bearish on are Wong, Ref, Narvaez and Romy. I’m not even bearish on Rafaela, I think he can improve – can’t get any worse, right?
So how’s THAT for positive thinking!!! LOL!!
GaSox – I haven’t followed the Celts sale too closely, but I thought last year FSG stated they weren’t pursuing a purchase. Did they change their stance since then?
Either way, I don’t think it was a factor in spending this year.
Declining revenue and profits was the driving force behind their decision to approach the first CBT threshold and possibly go over it.
Devers to DH was the right move. If you can’t see that, I don’t know what to tell you. So far, you and Devers are the only two people I’ve seen try to argue he is a Third baseman.
Here is what the Fangraphs projections show on this point, assuming 600 PA for each player at each position:
Devers 3B, Bregman 2B, Yoshida DH = 9.2 WAR combined
Devers DH, Bregman 3B, Campbell 2B = 9.1 WAR combined
So that is the reality of this situation, based on objective data not subjective lore. And the 9.1 number for the second scenario includes a projected 3.2 WAR for Campbell (based on 600 PA), which at the moment is looking quite ambitious. So the data shows, contrary to the lore, that moving Devers to DH is far from obviously the best move.
Doug, if you want to play a computer model, go ahead. How can it though consider a player that hasn’t played one inning in the majors? Too many variables for me to argue based on WAR. Play Strat-o-matic if you’d like.
Doug, projections are not objective data. They are a guess. Historically the margin for error on those projections is greater than 20%.
The reality is that its not data. Its projections. In other words, educated guesses.
Hi folks thanks for your feedback. Clearly I have touched a few nerves. A few clarifying comments from me in response to your comments:
1. No, historical WAR is in no way subjective. It is entirely based on objective data.
2. Yes, projected WAR is a guess about the future, as is any projection, including your guesses about the 2025 performance of these players. But Fangraphs’ projected WAR is a highly educated guess built off of the two projection models that have been shown historically to be the most accurate. Your guesses, on the other hand, do not from what I have seen seem to be backed up by anything other than your own self-confidence in your own personal judgments. So, respectfully, I will stick with the Fangraphs’ guesses about 2025 performance, which are the best guesses out there.
3. No, Devers’s WAR would not have been higher in prior years if he had generated the same offensive numbers at DH as he did at 3B. This comment shows a misunderstanding of WAR that frequently appears on this board. Both the bWAR and fWAR formulas include positional adjustments that give players who play difficult and important defensive positions (including 3B) positive defensive value even if they (like Devers) are below average at the position. Those formulas, however, correctly give DHs no defensive value, so a poor defensive 3B will ALWAYS have a higher WAR than a DH even if their offensive productions are identical. You can see this in the Fangraphs 2025 WAR projections for Devers, who is projected to have a much higher per/PA WAR as a 3B than as a DH.
4. Yes, projections on people like Campbell who have no MLB and minimal AAA experience are the iffiest. That is part of my point. The projected WAR of the Campbell/Bregman/Devers alignment only comes close to matching the projected WAR of the Bregman/Devers/Yoshida alignment by virtue of the aggressive Fangraphs Campbell projection of 3.2 WAR over 600 PA. That would be ROY territory for Campbell. Yes that could happen, but to me it goes too far to project that is what will most likely happen if Campbell gets 600 PA. If Campbell had a more realistic projection (say, 1.5 WAR, which would be fine for a 22-year-old rookie who has scarcely played at AAA), then the projected WAR of the Campbell/Bregman/Devers alignment would not come close to matching the projected WAR of the Bregman/Devers/Yoshida alignment.
I know what I am saying does not match the popular narrative on this issue, which is why my view has sparked such hostility here, but the reality is that my view is supported by the best available data, whereas the popular narrative does not seem to be supported by anything other than “I know I am right so you must be stupid for not seeing this my way.” I am happy to look at actual data on this issue, but I am not persuaded by arguments that are based entirely on the advocate’s subjective opinion and the popular support for that opinion.
Regards,
Doug
Doug – Thank you, good stuff!
Do you know how FG came up with their projections? is it based on last year’s performance? Or the last 3 years?
I’m expecting around a .900 OPS for Yoshida if he’s healthy.
Baseball – Most analytics are a guess, they are projections based on real stats.
It’s like the projected team records and standings. Certainly they are not accurate very often, but they are fun to see.
Doug, not sure which of the Fangraphs projections you are using but here is what you are missing. The best projection model on Fangraphs has a 20% margin for error. In other words the actual performance will fall somewhere from 20% lower than the projection to 20% higher. That is the best they can do. That’s not close to objective data.
All you are doing is basing your arguments on someone else’s subjective opinion.
The facts are that Devers is terrible on defense at 3B. So bad that if he didn’t play on defense at all his WAR would have been higher. How bad you say? There is a 17 run differential between 3B (+2) and DH (-15) in WAR defensive calculations. That Devers defense is so bad that playing 3B at all lowers his WAR tells you all you need to know about his value as a 3B.
Those are objective facts. Not opinion at all.
Moving Devers to DH makes the Red Sox better as a team regardless of who plays 3B as long as that person is good defensively.
Put Mayer there. He could have a 78 wRC+ on offense and as long as he has a 0 OAA or better, the team is better overall than with Devers at 3B. That is objective fact based on the numbers.
No projections or any part of your subjective opinion will change those facts.
Just so you know, there are many projections models on Fangraphs.
If the goal was really was to give Devers a kick in the family jewels, interesting hypothesis…
Would swapping Yoshida and Devers between 3B and DH have been a net positive? LOL…
Not a serious idea, just based on how historically bad Devers has been for years now….it’s amusing to picture.
Doug, do the math. Devers would have had a 4.3 fWAR at DH last season. He would have had a 4.1 bWAR at DH last season. That is what the math shows us.
Hi B I am very interested in that math. Could you share how you did, or from where you got, that math. Thanks very much.
Regards,
Doug
stymee – Not as educated as they should be.
Most of these projections don’t take into account the player’s health and other off the field factors.
Doug, going to chime in because well, I can. You probably should already know this information if you are making arguments about WAR.
Both sites have the formula they utilize listed.
baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_positio…
library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/
library.fangraphs.com/calculating-position-player-…
All the components that go into those calculations are available on the respective sites. Hope that helps.
Yes thanks so much for pointing out the formulas, which prove up my point. Both formulas make significant positional adjustments depending on how difficult the player’s position is. In bWAR a DH is 17 runs worse than a 3B over 162 games by virtue of that adjustment (I.e., about 1.7 WAR) and in fWAR the positional difference is 20 runs (I.e., about 2.0 WAR). That is why as I said in a prior post Fangraphs 2025 projections have Devers at 4.1 WAR as a 3B and 2.6 WAR as a DH (in each case assuming 600 PA at the position in question.
That is why I was questioning B’s calculations of what Devers’s fWAR and bWAR in 2024 would have been as a DH. They should be about 1.5 to 2.0 below what his WAR numbers were that year as a 3B (3.7 in bWAR and 4.1 in fWAR).
Doug, you just showed you don’t understand the math. At least we know why you made some of the incredible off base comments about this situation.
Hi if you would like to show me what is supposedly wrong with my math, I am happy to consider your analysis. But just hurling insults at me is not particularly persuasive. If you have some actual “math” to share with us please do so. Thanks.
Regards,
Doug
Doug – The whole thing was one big con by Cora the Con.
First Cora insisted Raffy won’t be replaced at 3B.
Then Cora insisted there would be a “competition” for the position.
Neither were true.
I just hope whatever private conversations have now been going on with Devers and management are captured in writing by Raffy’s agent. Hopefully he learned you can NEVER trust Cora, Kennedy or Henry.
Fever, I basically agree but I also understand spin. Sometimes statements at the time don’t work out. Sometimes they do.
Fever, just in fairness, was Devers jn a position to actually have a competition in ST for 3B?
Physically up for it I mean?
To have such a competition you need to be able to have a good number of sample size games. Not just say, well, maybe he could’ve gotten in on 4 or 5 games at the end if they pushed things and made room for him because that’s not enough sample for a competition to be had.
So, my sincere question is, what is the earliest date this spring you think Devers should have safely made a 3B start based on his physical condition and ability? And, how frequent there after was he physically up for repeating such starts as a competition?
I’ve got plenty of my own gripes with management and Cora, but, I didn’t get the impression Devers was in condition to safely go through such a competition of any duration in time. Curious if you see it differently.
GaSox – We will never know the true answer to your question. Many people feel Devers missed most of ST not because of his physical health, but because of everything else.
But I will repeat what I said a month ago ….
Let’s say hypothetically Devers was 100% healthy at the start of ST.
Who on Earth thinks he’d have ANY chance of outplaying Bregman at 3B?
It would be like me “competing” against 25-year-old Shaq in a game of one-on-one basketball.
It would be a complete joke, a total farce.
And even if miracle of miracles Devers DID outplay Bregman by a narrow margin, you think Cora would rule against Bregman?
The “competition” scheme was as legit as Henry & Company competing for ownership of the Red Sox.
Fair enough. Just curious when you thought he was up to compete at any point with how you called out Cora on it.
It’s a tricky situation, for all manner of reasons. You don’t want to stress the player if something doesn’t come together. You don’t want to tip your hand publicizing you need a new 3b to lose leverage in negotiations – trade (arenado) or FA (bregman)…
It probably could’ve been handled much better by the sox, but, it also could’ve been handled much better by Devers. Its no secret in baseball he’s been historically bad on defense and hasn’t managed to make strides in the last 8 years to improve in any meaningful way.
Heck, this conversation would probably be different had Casas been shipped to SEA for pitching too. Then we’d probably have Devers going to 1B instead of DH.
GaSox – Yeah if Casas had gotten traded, Yoshida probably stays at DH 80% of the time. But as you know I’m glad Casas is still here. Personally nothing frustrates me more than talented players who can’t stay healthy, I’m always hoping they can be healthy and show what they can do.
Nothing more I can say that I haven’t already said about how management and Devers both handled the situation ;O)
It’s kinda ironic Bregman already has 3 errors in just 79 innings. I don’t usually put any weight into hitting or pitching because ST is a time for experimentation and adjustments, but defense isn’t like that. Defense should be solid in ST, especially with only a week left in ST.
Let’s hope your expectations of another GG season isn’t making Bregman nervous ;O)
Grissom will be an all star one day, he has such a great bat. Obviously the injury aren’t doing him any favors. Once he gets healthy, the skies the limit
LFGMets: Sure he will. Unless, of course, he won’t.
LFGRS – What injury? Grissom has been healthy this year, he’s played in 13 games.
The real problem is he’s “competing” with a .535 OPS and poor defense. He wouldn’t win a job on ANY team by performing like that.
People say that, but I’ve yet to see Grissom perform even half way decent. I’m not sure what everyone else is looking at when they say “hes gonna be a star!” I just don’t see it.
If either Campbell and/or Meyer stay and one gets rookie of the year or some award – redsox in the last bargaining will get rewarded for not keeping them in minors til june
Data – Didn’t you ever see the commercial with the cute kid fishing?
“My Marcelo has a first name, it’s M-A-Y-E-R”.
I’m just happy Winki is gone n hopefully never to return!
What would it take to get Grissom on Yankees? Can he play 3B?
A bucket of balls and a bag of peanuts.
Gerrit Cole with the Yankees paying the Sox. Ownership likes to invest two years down the road with injured pitchers and a reverse Sales trade seems in order.
It all makes sense, now! With Grissom out of the way, Devers can finally play his true position: 2B! I knew Bregman at 3B had a reason
I wonder if either Campbell or Mayer breaks camp or if the Roman Empire rises to open the season. Trayce Thompson should break camp with Yoshida and Abreu on the shelf. One player not to overlook is Abraham Toro has had a really good spring as well. Still lots of competition for the Sox roster
Hamilton put up a 2.6 WAR in limited time last season. He had to be the favorite if Campbel didn’t wow in camp and win the job outright?
Well, I don’t know about favorite because I think Grissom was given every opportunity to win the job.
I think all he had to do was put out even a decent showing and the job was his. I would’ve said he was the favorite going into spring training. He just couldn’t get the job done and failed in a bad way.
As others have said, I hope he rebuilds his value at AAA.
Grissom’s days were numbered when Hamilton showed he could be a competent major leaguer and Mayer coming. I was expecting Mayer to come up to play second base and then move to short once the Story contract ended. Now Campbell has emerged as a legit prospect. Grissom’s problem has always been his defense. He is probably going to get traded or become a bench super sub.
The people complaining the Red Sox gave away sale for nothing seem to forget Sale pitched more innings last year then the previous three years combined.
baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml
Wouldn’t be surprised if Campbell is next to go down. Needs more at bats in AAA. Of course one could say that for Mayer, but one has impressed this spring, the other not so much….yet.
The genius lies deeper. Boston’s infield is stacked—Story, Bregman, Devers, Hamilton, plus Mayer and Campbell looming—but Grissom’s skill set (plate discipline, contact) still has value. His .408 OBP in Triple-A screams trade bait, yet his MLB struggles (.219 SLG) suppress his cost (pre-arbitration, optionable). By sending him down, the Red Sox aren’t writing him off—they’re parking him in Worcester to rebuild his stock, betting that a hot April (.320/.410/.460, say) makes him a midseason trade chip for a contender needing infield depth
Please put Weissert on the next bus please. Dude is a gas can
At least you got Fitts out of that trade.
The Sale trade was a salary dump. Let’s just call it for what it is.
Bobby – A salary dump in which the Sox paid $17M of his salary?
If it was a dump, it was smaller than a chihuahua’s.
Atlanta does have to cover the 10 million defered.
Those who have youth and minor league options will be sent down. Especially when they have so few professional at bats to show for it.
How did Sale do in the playoffs for the Braves?????
Hmmm.
Rather have a cy young award than a hr from a poor fielding 2nd baseman who can’t hit homers anyway!
Gee, you think? The tricky part is guaranteeing a C.Y. from a pitcher that was 35 years old and had won a total of 17 games in the previous 5 years.
At the time I wasn’t a big fan of grissom. But I also understood why a head of ops would move on from a guy who hadn’t been taking the field much in years.
It’s a justifiable risk, even though at the time I was less than enthused at the return – not due to concerns with offense mind you, but, rather his woes fielding that in small sample sizes got worse the further across the infield you slid him.