Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We’ll be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series already covered the NL West, where the Dodgers were viewed as an overwhelming favorite, and the NL Central, where the Cubs narrowly beat out the reigning division champs in Milwaukee. Now, the series continues with a look at the NL East. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.
Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
After the Phillies fell to their division-rival Mets during the NLDS, it appeared the club may consider making some considerable changes as they put Alec Bohm on the market and searched for outfield help rather than rely on internal options like Brandon Marsh and Josh Rojas. Ultimately, however, the club’s additions this winter were fairly modest. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski swung a trade for a big-name pitcher in need of a bounce-back in Jesus Luzardo. The signings of Jordan Romano and Max Kepler should help out as well but both are coming off down seasons due to injuries. With Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez departing, the bullpen is arguably weaker than last season.
The Phillies will mostly rely on the same core players they trotted out last year. Fortunately, that’s the same core that allowed them to sail into the postseason with a bye through the Wild Card series last year. Zack Wheeler remains one of the very best pitchers in the entire sport, and a rotation featuring Luzardo as the likely fifth starter behind Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez when fully healthy is in the conversation for the sport’s best. In the lineup, meanwhile, Bryce Harper returns as one of the sport’s most talented hitters, and his supporting cast of battle-tested veterans like Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto all figure to contribute with the same consistency they’ve offered in previous years. It was more than enough to win the division last year, but will the same be true in 2025?
Atlanta Braves (89-73)
This past offseason was a relatively quiet one in Atlanta, as the club’s winter was defined more by the departures of franchise stalwarts like Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Travis d’Arnaud than any major additions, even as Jurickson Profar profiles as a substantial upgrade over last year’s platoon of Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall in left field. Other relatively marginal additions like Alex Verdugo, Nick Allen, and Hector Neris should help out somewhat as well, but the main thing Atlanta has going for it in 2025 is hope for better health. The Braves’ core was ravaged by injuries last year, with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider both missing virtually the entire season while Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy and Michael Harris II all also missed significant time.
While health is never guaranteed, the club is all but certain to get more out of its two superstars in Acuna and Strider this year, and is overall unlikely to run into the same rash of injuries on the positional side even as Murphy is already out for the start of the season due to a cracked rib. The team that led baseball in runs scored in 2023 has brought in even more talent on offense since then while also building an impressive bullpen anchored by Raisel Iglesias and Aaron Bummer. All of that is before even considering that the club will once again enjoy the services of reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale, as well as Reynaldo Lopez as he tries to follow up on a 1.99 ERA campaign in 2025. In some ways, 2024 looked like a floor for the Braves’ talented floor. Will a bounce back be enough to win a tough division in 2025?
New York Mets (89-73)
For as talented as the Phillies and Braves are, it was the Mets who made the deepest run into the 2024 postseason of the NL East, getting all the way to Game 6 of the NLCS before falling to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers. Steve Cohen and David Stearns weren’t content to rest on their laurels this winter and made the biggest splash of any team when they signed Juan Soto to a record-shattering $765MM deal that will land him in Queens for the next 15 years. None of the club’s other moves matched that level of flash, but the returns of Sean Manaea, Jesse Winker, and Pete Alonso as well as more modest additions like Clay Holmes and A.J. Minter leave the Mets looking like a stronger club overall than they were this time last year.
Impactful as pairing Soto with Francisco Lindor at the top of the lineup figures to be, however, that won’t necessarily make the club a clear division favorite with many of the issues that made the Mets such underdogs last season still lingering. A rotation that featured little certainty on paper entering Spring Training is already getting tested by a number of injuries, and the club will rely on Mark Vientos avoiding a sophomore slump in order to lengthen a lineup that looks softer at the bottom than its counterparts in Atlanta and Philadelphia. Still, a lineup featuring two MVP finalists, two other 30-homer sluggers, and Brandon Nimmo looks impressive on paper, and a late-inning mix of Edwin Diaz, Minter, and Jose Butto should be able to preserve late leads. Will that be enough to overtake their rivals?
Washington Nationals (71-91)
The Nationals showed some signs of development last year, but ultimately sold at the trade deadline and fell well short of playoff contention when all was said and done. Still, an emerging core of James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, Dylan Crews, and CJ Abrams inspired enough confidence for the Nationals to make some modest buy-side additions this winter. Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell should provide a notable upgrade over Joey Meneses and Joey Gallo at first base, while Paul DeJong and Amed Rosario offer the sort of depth on the infield that was sorely lacking last year.
With three juggernauts at the top of the division, the path to a division title in D.C. is a murky one. With that being said, every member of that aforementioned core is young, talented, and capable of breaking out before even considering the potential impact other young pieces like Brady House, Cade Cavalli, and Robert Hassell III could offer at some point in the year. The addition of Michael Soroka to a rotation that already featured solid youngsters like Gore and Jake Irvin should also offer plenty of upside. Steep as the climb to the summit of the NL East would be, it’s certainly not impossible to imagine the Nationals being the surprise of the NL this year.
Miami Marlins (62-100)
Things were bleak in Miami last year as they lost 100 games for the first time since 2019. And unfortunately for fans, there’s little reason for optimism about the potential for better days in 2025. The club made virtually no additions this winter, and moves to ship out solid pieces like Luzardo and Jake Burger figure to be far more notable than the additions of minor pieces like Matt Mervis and Cal Quantrill. The return of stalwart ace Sandy Alcantara from Tommy John surgery provides a nice story early in the year, and young phenom Eury Perez could return later this season as well. Even the club’s vaunted collection of arms seems unlikely to be enough to get them back to the playoffs given a lineup that will rely on players like Jesus Sanchez and Connor Norby to carry its run production this year, and it would likely take a miracle for them to actually come out on top in such a tough division.
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The Phillies, Braves, and Mets all have strong cases to be the NL East’s best team after making the postseason last year. Philadelphia stands as the reigning champion, while Atlanta featured the best team in all of baseball just two years ago. New York, meanwhile, made a deep run in the postseason just last year and added arguably the most talented pure hitter in baseball over the winter. Meanwhile, D.C. is continuing to quietly assemble a young core that could break out and compete in its own right. Even with Miami deep in the trenches of a rebuild, it figures to be a deeply competitive division in 2025. Who do you think will come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:
The Phillies…
PHILLIES
No love for the Nats??
They spent nothing really so maybe next year
They did spend on Jorge Lopez, Josh Bell, Paul DeJong, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Lucas Sims, and Mike Soroka so we’ll see.
Phils have the pitching. Mets have the lineup. Braves have both, but health issues. I’m going with last year’s champs until they’re dethroned.
All 3 teams have “health issues”
But I don’t think picking the Phillies is a bad pick
Picking the Mets is insane
“Picking the Mets is insane”…Weren’t they saying virtually the same thing last year and the Mets went to the NLCS?
If not for the juggernaut Dodgers, the Mets would likely have won the NL Pennant and went to the World Series.
I don’t think the Mets winning the division is insane, but going to the NLCS is very different from winning the division. The pole asked who will win the division. Not who will go to the NLCS.
So, they went to the NLCS last year and then added the highest paid player in baseball history and some(@Socalbrave) now think they have no shot to win the division?
Personally I have no idea who’ll win the East, because the Mets, Braves AND Phillies ALL seem strong contenders in my book.
If I actually knew who’d would win the NL East I’d be in Vegas right now, not the mlbtraderumors.com comments section.
I learned a long, long time ago not to predict or handicap baseball. It’s virtually impossible to do well with all the injuries and random bounces of the ball.
I got the Braves, I think 89 wins is the absolute floor for this team. It is the most complete in the division. It will be a 3 team race, the 3 of them gonna beat up on the rest of the NL besides LA. I think 2, 3, and 4 in the NL are in the NL East. I’m talking strictly records here, I’m not taking into account division winners. I think Arizona is 5th and Chicago is 6th.
Saying it’s insane is a stretch as the Mets will contend. But, the disparity between their pitching vs Braves/Phillies is greater than the difference between their offense and the Braves/Phils. So, in that way, I get it. When handicapping this race without knowing the injuries that will happen, the Mets are clearly #3 in this race.
Picking the Braves is insane. You made the playoffs because the Mets handed you the last game of the season. You are counting on repeat career years from Sale and Lopez. You are counting on major injury players going back to form. Your back of the rotation is lacking.
All three are obviously playoff-caliber teams and it will be quite a battle for the division. For me the Phillies have the edge because of proven rotation, but the Braves lineup with Profar and soon Acuna and Murphy gets my vote as scariest in the NL. Braves rotation when Strider is back looks good too (Swellenbach is underrated!). Adding Soto will help everyone in but the Mets lineup, the NYM rotation is the weakest among these 3 teams (though not weak) even with Senga back.
Coming from a Mets fan this is RICH
Coming from a Braves fan is RICH.
That’s tellin’ ‘im
I think that it is a dogfight, but even without my Phillies bias I give them the edge right now. It can all change in a moment, but that rotation is as stacked with upside AND steady performers as I remember.
Zack / Sanchez / Nola are comforting and top shelf, and Ranger and Luzardo can be as good as anyone. Plus Painter by July. And a very good lineup that I think will be stronger top to bottom this year.
Obviously the Marlins. In all seriousness the Mets don’t have the pitching even in full health. Could still sneak in as a wildcard and get hot at the right time. No chance at the division though.
Simple!!!
The team with the most wins will win the East.
Phillies by at least 10 games. Mets 2nd.
Phillies. Wheeler, Nola, and a full year of Ranger Suarez would be the three-headed hydra to beat anyone in the regular season, even more so in the playoffs.
Sanchez is even better than Nola and Suarez. They have a 3 headed beast already. Arguably 4 and Painter will be here in the 2nd half.
Don’t forget Luzardo…not a bad #5 to have
Nola and Suarez are not as good as you think they are. Suarez won’t even be in your rotation by seasons end.
They’d both be a top 2 pitcher on the Mets and you know it. Don’t embarrass yourself.
No they wouldn’t. What was Suarez ERA in the second half last year? Nola is good every other year and this isn’t the year. Manaea and Peterson are both better than them. Holmes will be better then both of them.You do realize the Phillies team Era was only .11 better then the Mets last year and this year is a better staff for the Mets. The Phillies staff is the most over rated staff in baseball and it’s not even close. They will be middle of the pack.
You’re clearly not even reading I said Sanchez. Enjoy your delusions.
No you said those two responding to me. You said they would both be top 2 pitchers. It’s not hard to reread the conversation string.
Actually, that’s fair. I initially said Sanchez. You brought in Suarez.
Also, your team era stat is bunk because the Phillies struggled all year out if the 5th spot last year. They acquired Luzardo to fix that issue and will have Painter coming in the 2nd half. Take the 5th starter out of the equation and the Phils starters were some of the best in baseball last year.
That being said, the Phils lineup has holes and has been shutdown in the playoffs 3 seasons in a row. I have the Phils winning the division, but that doesn’t mean the Mets won’t beat them in the playoffs again.
Marlins. Well not really but I voted for them because I will win the most money if they win. There is money in this poll right?
There is money in poll dancing
Phillies, Braves, Mets finish in that order. That Braves team from 2023 isn’t coming back.
It doesn’t have to, to win the division against an elderly Phillies team with 2/3rds of its lineup 32 and older, and an elderly Mets team that forgot to build a real rotation and that already had to go with a 5-man rotation for lack of starters with MLB experience.
Most of those 32 year olds can still play at an elite level. I think the Phillies ages matter longterm. This is essentially the last season of this core, but for this year? Those dudes will be fine. That being said, it’s their younger guys I don’t trust. Marsh, Stott, Rojas…etc. Those are the big holes. The Braves and Mets don’t have those holes in the lineup.
I don’t think the Phillies are built as well for 162, but they’ll hang close. I just hope the Braves can get past them in the playoffs.
If I knew this I wouldn’t be here, I’d be at Draftkings.com or ESPNbet.com
Braves will win the East. They’re the most balanced among the top three. Phils make the playoffs. The poll here leans toward Philly only because of rigged poll manipulation. Honest analysis says ATL by a couple wins.
I’m a fan of the N.L. West team, but I chose Philly. No bias here.
I’m a Red Sox fan and I chose Phillies. What’s rigged about that? Terrible biased post
I am an Angels fan and I chose the Phillies.
Hilarious that after giving Juan Soto a record-breaking contract people aren’t choosing the Mets. I guess the Mets shouldn’t have put all their eggs in one basket.
“all their eggs”…Soto got his requisite 2 walks, so he came thru as expected and on base walks is what you’re really paying for with Soto isn’t it?
He didn’t otherwise have much effect on the S.D Friars offense. They actually won more and made the playoffs after he left, with virtually the same team minus him.
They traded all their eggs when they let both Scherzer and Verlander leave
Especially not a $765 million basket that leaves the Mets carrying $51m a year worth of dead weight the last five years of the deal.
At a saner price, Soto was a good pickup for a team that doesn’t have a farm system that warrants stocking up on free agents almost inevitably over 30 that kills the team’s chances beginning in a few years and until those deals expire.
Still, look at the $75m in AAV the Yankees are paying out in 2025 just to create one Soto in the aggregate, and the eight years they’ve committed to Fried’s aching elbow, shoulder, and tricep. Even if they don’t regret that 8/$218m contract it’s likely to be dead weight for its last 2-3 years.
Plus the Yankees get to do most it over again in 2026, and 2027, and…
Soto is great helps the Mets stay formidable, but the Braves get Acuna back (arguably as good as Soto when healthy) and the Phillies have Harper. But star power alone doesn’t get it done. I think the difference among the three teams is captured by the SP rotations, which is why I give edge to Phillies, then Braves, then Mets.
@Brew’88 That’s definitely a fair assessment.
My concern for Acuna is the second serious leg injury. We’ve seen the skills of player after player, even star after star just collapse once leg injuries become chronic. It would be a real shame if he never fully recovered, and it’s good to see the Braves bringing him along slowly. I hope he has the sense to lay off stealing bases. I get the appeal of going for a record, but it didn’t just tempt fate, it was like jumping up and down waving your arms wildly, hoping Fate noticed.
A great player, even if he is a Brave, with a bWAR per 162 games that ranks 16th all time.
Agree he needs to put the breaks on SBs. He said he would. Tatis had to do the same after the chronic stress fracture issue.
It would be heartbreaking if Acuna didn’t regain his game. He’s a generational talent for sure.
Pitching matters and theirs is suspect. He will be in Flushing until you are at least old enough to drink, so they have plenty of time.
Not the Braves
If the Mets don’t win the East, it would be a HUGE embarrassment. The Phillies would be the next most logical bet. The Braves and the Nationals are gonna be competitive in the division. The Marlins shouldn’t be good in the slightest, but they somehow beat the Pirates and Paul Skenes on opening day. The worst team in baseball scored two runs off arguably one of if not the best pitcher in baseball, which he has to be fuming insanely over.
How would it be a huge embarrassment? All three have sizable payrolls and pretty much ranked 2,3 and 4 in any ranking system in all of baseball.
Because the Mets traded away Scherzer and Verlander and now are crying for aces… that’s an embarrassment they pulled a complete 180 from building to selling to building again. A complete buffoon way of organizing a team
Neither one of them are aces anymore. I think Stearns track record of building teams and knowing what he is doing is pretty unquestionable.
SickofMLBTRads
The inadequate pitching in 2025 is a result of a 2023 trade? There were 2 full off seasons between then and now.
Also in that span of time both those guys missed significant time while the pitchers they were replaced by over performed
Both those trades netted prospects with upside, some of which are already responsible for helping the Mets reach the 2024 NLCS.
This is a weird hill to die on man.
When Griffin Canning is your #3, I doubt it.
When have the Mets won under him? We’ll see. It’s very questionable what they’ve been doing. I’m sorry, as good as he is, Juan Soto can’t pitch
I’m saying that management built up a championship team, failed, gutted for prospects, then are now trying to build up a winner again in all but three up and down years. The way the team has been built has been highly erratic and irrational.
There’s nothing unquestionable about this strange trajectory of building a team
Griffin Canning is not the #3. He’s just pitching the 3rd game of the year because Senga and LHP Peterson match up better against the Marlins than the Astros.
We play the Marlins on Sunday I think.
Not erratic, I think you’re missing the contextual periods of time.
2023 was the end of the Eppler era.
Winter 2023/2024 to now is Stearns era. He started pitching lab, beefed up scouting, and hired Mendoza and ongoing.
Iirc in the 2023 season they moved Scherzer/Verlander earlier but at the deadline it was just expiring contracts, pham for ex, no?
I think I’m remembering all that correctly
Stearns was with the team earlier and didn’t do much if I recall.
Throwing money at free agents isn’t always the best plan.
Not sure this is worthy of a track record.
I do think Mets snag third place and a possible wild card… I just don’t think they pass the Phillies in record and likely not the Braves either
If neither of them were aces, then why did the Mets go after them? You say they weren’t aces, yet Stearns has a wonderful track record, so in one year they magically didn’t become aces? The Mets (notably Cohen) didn’t exactly make the winning team and Stearns traded them to fix the failures. Doesn’t sound like a good track record to me to replace them with starters who just aren’t looking as good.
I’d rather have Scherzer and Verlander than Montas and Holmes, who hasn’t even been a proven starter. Verlander has proved time and time again he is a high quality pitcher
Always a fun division to keep an eye on all season. No one is running away with it which makes some damn good baseball.
“Always a fun division…dam good baseball”…It is entirely possible that a more accurate and truthful statement has never been made.
I’m going with the Marlins….
See ya when the tide comes in
Phillies Braves Mets in that order in the regular season, but none of that really matters come playoffs. I still think all 3 make it to the playoffs
Phillies. I think the Soto contract will hurt the Mets more than help. They need pitching. Verlander anyone? Scherzer? Oh wait…
FIGHTINS!
NY Mets are winning the NL East,
Would be foolish to think otherwise,
“NY Mets..foolish to think otherwise”… The only person who ever made a smart “bet” on baseball…was Arnold Rothstein.
Baseball just has too many games, injuries and random bounces of the ball to successfully predict outcomes.
The only prediction I’d feel comfortable making is that one of the Phillies, Braves or Mets will win the NL East.
If a gun was held to my head, I’d probably go Phillies, because I like their starting pitching over the Mets and Braves.
Zack Wheeler has been a top 2(Gerrit Cole) pitcher for about the last 4+ years now, but somehow still flies under the radar.
The Braves are going to take it, but I will say the Phillies make me nervous.
I disagree with most of the views on how which team will win the NL East. As a Braves fan, I am nervous because of the bullpen. I haven’t seen anyone mention bullpens. Just players, lineups, Starting Rotations, and age. I myself believe it will come down to managerial decisions and strength of the bullpen! That’s why I’m nervous about the Braves. Today’s game has managers making too many stupid and unreasonable moves that end up squandering leads or extending deficits. It doesn’t matter how good your starter is or how many runs you score, if the bullpen can’t shut the other team down it doesn’t matter! Again in Today’s game, most starters are just “expected” to go 6 innings with most every team having a formula of relievers and innings to finish the game. The worst part of this is it only takes for “ONE” of them to have a bad day. Then everything that happened positively or negative during the game doesn’t really matter. You got to have a Shutdown bullpen and a manager that knows when, where and how to use them!
That’s a common misconception. A reliever can have a bad day without wrecking the result. Games also not infrequently turn into a game of “which pen is less bad today?” Starters can also blow up and put games out of reach. It’s always a question of, how do I increase my expectations against this batter, throughout this inning, and for the rest of the game?
In addition managers during the regular season rarely manage a game in a vacuum. You’re managing for the next game, for next week’s games, and so on.
You don’t need a shutdown bullpen any more than you need a top 3 offense or the game’s best starting rotation to make the postseason or win the World Series. Nice to have, obviously, but bullpens pitch about half the innings a team plays, and every pen is built on existing contracts and players already in the organization. It’s not always possible to devote the resources required to assemble a shutdown bullpen, and in general you’d rather have a top rotation than a top pen.
Pitching and health. Phillies :). But it’s not pitching alone or Seattle would’ve done more last year. Health and stamina matter though. We can all talk about age but every team got older. And all the top teams are in their 30s.
Yeah, that seems to have changed at least a little in the last decade, probably with anti-aging science taking off.
Pages is the only Dodger through four games with a PA who’s under 30. The Mets are old. The Phillies are old. The Padres are old. The Astros, surprisingly, are getting younger. The Yankees are, weirdly, not old.
Like most Dombrowski teams Philly is very top heavy that peter out within 2-3 years after the cusp, never built for sustainability and very expensive
“Like most Dombrowski teams..very expensive”…Some valid criticisms that I myself have mentioned in the past.
But I will say that “The Dom” has always been a “win now” GM that has taken at least 3 different baseball organizations to the World Series.
You don’t bring in the Dom to build the farm, develop youngsters or to “build sustainability”.
You bring in Dom to “win now” and have at least a chance to spray champagne and hold up the biggest prize in baseball, the World Series trophy within Dom’s first 4 or 5 years on the job.
As for doing what he was brought in to do, Dom excels, although you have obviously already mentioned a couple of the downsides of the man many of us call “Dom”. Nobody’s perfect but the Dom has a very good track record.
Phillies – They have the lowest probability of implosion, and over 162 games, that matters most.
The Phillies are clearly the best team in the NL East. Their starting pitching is only second to the Dodgers. Their offense is top 3. The only things that hold them back are their bullpen with losing Hoffman and Estevez, and their defense is probably the worst in baseball in my opinion. The Braves are going to finish in second place. Mets will be in third but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nationals pass them up, their young core looks good
I’m not sold Atlanta has the pitching. Relying on Sale and Lopez to stay healthy is a dangerous proposition, and who knows if strider will be strider. They also seem to have some serious bullpen issues. Also, we don’t know if Acuna is going to come back like the old Acuna. I’m just not as high on my braves this year.
The Braves were hobbled by injuries in 2024 and still made the postseason. They really do look like the team to beat in the East, though a lot of projection systems have a near-tie between the top three.
If Acuna comes back to put up a 4 WAR year, I’d call that lucky. Still a terrific team.
It’s a curiosity, strawbee, the way you cycle between almost rational and definitely calm to hysterical and swinging from the chandeliers
OK, that latter description may be somewhat exaggerated, because I wouldn’t want to post anything which would violate MLBTR’s rules of lovingness towards all, regardless of how hilarious my words actually are
I think you’re simply filled with pre-conceived dislikes, and you can’t help being wild-eyed in expressing these preconceptions
For your performance in this here discussion section, I grant you two thumbs up, and one crippled thumb down
Sacramento A’s all the ways
The Bears
I have a feeling this is going to be a tough year for the whole division, including the big three. Every team has serious issues.
Comes down to pitching, all 3 contenders will hit… Phillies have the best starters, Braves have guys coming back from injury, Mets are thin in starters with recent injuries, if Mets weather the storm at beginning of season, they’ll be ok… 3 team race, pitching will decide… trade deadline will be interesting…
It’s complicated. I’m saying Phillies. The team with the best pitching and the worst defence. It’s complicated.
As a Marlins fan I’m hoping that the Marlins’ fight and competitiveness messes things up for one of the contenders. Neither know nor care which one
Hard to say Phillies bc of their pitching when Nola has a typical Nola day.
Another disastrously written article by Deeds. “Steep as the climb to the summit of the NL East would be” and “impactful as pairing Soto with Francisco Lindor at the top of the lineup figures to be” are NOT PROPER ENGLISH. You can’t just leave “as” out to begin the sentence. It’s not optional! Grammar is not optional when you’re being paid to write.
“Meanwhile” has to start the sentence, not come in the middle between commas.