The Cubs’ teardown of their last core that saw them part ways with Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Craig Kimbrel over the course of nine months. That slate of moves, to this point, has offered little in terms of major league production. There are some promising prospects from trades in that teardown, such as Owen Caissie (Darvish) and Kevin Alcantara (Rizzo) knocking on the door of the big leagues, but some of the pieces acquired in the trades of Darvish, Rizzo, Bryant, and Kimbrel have already departed the organization (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Alexander Canario).
So far, the primary exception is the trade that sent Baez (and right-hander Trevor Williams) to the Mets for center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. The former first-round pick’s premium defense and speed gave him a high floor, and he continued to elevate his stock en route to billing as a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport.
In a league that’s seen an increasing number of young talents locked up long-term before reaching arbitration, Crow-Armstrong’s pedigree has long led Cubs fans to wonder if Chicago could follow in the footsteps of Arizona, Atlanta, and their brethren on the south side and lock up their young center fielder early in his career. It seems as though both the club’s front office and Crow-Armstrong himself could consider such an arrangement. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote last week that the front office “would be open” to bringing an offer to Crow-Armstrong. For his part, the youngster told Sharma he’s “always open to that conversation” as well.
Both the highs and the lows of Crow-Armstrong’s profile were on full display in 2024. He hit just .237/.286/.384 (87 wRC+) in 410 trips to the plate across 123 games… and his 2.7 fWAR in center field was still tied with Jacob Young of the Nationals for the eighth-highest figure of any player at the position last year thanks to his top-flight defensive and baserunning abilities. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths, including 22 straight steals without being caught. In the field, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field.
Impressive as his rookie season was in many ways, it’s undeniable that Crow-Armstrong’s bat left something to be desired. Among 31 center fielders to get at least 400 plate appearances last year, his aforementioned 87 wRC+ ranks just 20th and puts him well behind the production of similarly gifted center fielders like Daulton Varsho, Michael Harris II, and Brenton Doyle. If the Cubs believe Crow-Armstrong will remain a below-average hitter, it’d be difficult to justify extending him when he’s already under team control through his age-28 season.
There were some signs of positive growth throughout the year, however. From July onward, Crow-Armstrong slashed .260/.309/.442 with a wRC+ of 108. His strikeout (21.6%) and walk (5.6%) rates were both slightly improved in that time, but most of that offensive boost came from a power outburst. Crow-Armstrong entered July with just one home run but crushed nine more over his final 72 games. While Crow-Armstrong’s .085 ISO through the end of June would put him in line with Andres Gimenez and Luis Arraez, his .185 ISO from July onward was more in line with hitters like Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. The increased power is reflected in more advanced metrics, as well. Crow-Armstrong’s barrel rate (4.3%) and hard-hit rate (29.8%) were both lackluster early in the season but from July onward increased to 8.9% and 40.3%, respectively.
Perhaps Harris, who signed an eight-year, $72MM extension with the Braves back in 2022, could be the most useful comp for Crow-Armstrong given his strong work in center field and up-and-down offensive production throughout his career to this point. Harris was in the midst of a dominant rookie season where he slashed .297/.339/.514 (137 wRC+) at the time of his deal with Atlanta and was also a year younger than Crow-Armstrong is now, but lacked his pedigree as a former first-round pick and top-20 prospect while also providing far less defensive value than Crow-Armstrong does.
Lawrence Butler just signed a seven-year, $65.5MM extension but did so with more than a year of service. Glove-first position players with some offensive ceiling who signed long-term deals in recent years include Ke’Bryan Hayes (eight years, $70MM) and Ezequiel Tovar (seven years, $63.5MM). Most of those deals were signed when the player had five remaining years of club control, however. Crow-Armstrong has six.
If you were in the Cubs’ shoes, would you try to lock up Crow-Armstrong long-term despite his lack of consistent offensive track record? Or would you wait to see how he develops in 2025 and beyond, even at the risk that he substantially boosts his earning power with a breakout campaign? Have your say in the poll below:
Absolutely. Too much upside not to.
IMO – He doesn’t do anything that well to warrant an extension besides good defense and stolen bases. He needs to go out and earn it, otherwise just go thru the arbitration process if I’m the Cubs.
So he’s proven he currently does 3/4 of the game at a well above/elite level. You do realize in CF with just league average offense that is a 4WAR player? Plus he’s hit at every level once adjusted, would be silly not to bet on that upside for something like $70-80M. That can quickly turn into >$150M with a good not great season.
I was going to make same point. Dude is debatably the best CFer as a rookie, uh yeah you wanna extend him. The real question is how much and how long. He could end up a Kiermeier type.
The minors is littered with fast defensive 1st type players, the bat is what gets you paid.
Where are you coming up with your numbers? Just compare Kyle Tucker who’s earned roughly 57MM in career earnings thru arbitration. Where do you get that Pete can sniff a 150MM extension with not even a great year but just a “good” year.
He reminds me more a Kevin Pillar type player anyways and he’s only banked 24MM total.
Correction other commenter probably has a better comparison in Kiermeier, whose career earnings total about 68MM.
See if he can produce with the bat over the course of a n entire season, then work on extension.
How about Jackson Merrill?
I said yes, at his current skillset, so it will be a discount.
You are full of terrible takes. He reminds you of a Kevin Pillar type player? I mean, seriously? Kevin Pillar isn’t nearly the baserunner the PCA is. PCA will have more steals this year than Pillar ever had, his defense is better, and he potential in his bat is much higher.
You must be some kind of troll.
19 upvotes for “He doesn’t do anything that well” … “besides defense and base running”.? LOL.
He can hit, he didn’t hit great in his rookie season but he takes time to adjust. I have said it before and I will say it again, he will be one of the best players in baseball.
I voted no, but I definitely could be wrong though here. I would like to see how he is with the bat lst. PCA’s defense and speed is definitely top notch already though.
Could end up like Gimenez; solid glove player who’s bat never actually warrants the contract he got. Down side would be Jackie Bradley Jr.
If he continues to paint his hair absolutely
Absolutely. No brainer to not. 8/88 is what I’ve been saying on other social media places. Twitter, youtube channels.
Provide links. Go.
Don’t think posting links is allowed. And why anyway. It’s just my opinion on the matter on other social media platforms. That’s it.
You can post links unless it’s spam. The app doesn’t include the clickable link though.
You’ve always been honest af, Logjammah. I believe ya brah! And agree on 8, 9 years in that 80-90 range. Cheers! Worst case is he’s KK Lite…? Best case is he figures it all out and he’s a superstar lol
An 8 year deal takes him to his age 31 season. He’ll be 23 in 13 days. I’m hoping when I go to AZ for cubs ST games I see him. I wanna tell him I’m 17 years and 2 days exactly older than him. I’ll be 40 in 9 days. If I can’t talk to him a picture or even just a hand shake would be awesome too.
Happy early Birthday braddha! Have fun LDB. Get to the games early and hang out. Be cool bro, he’ll want to meet you!
Getting kind of crazy with these long term extensions for players who haven’t proven anything yet.
Exactly. I don’t know why this is even a question right now. I’m not suggesting he has to hit like a superstar from now to get the extension. But the Cubs can certainly wait a year and see whether he at least shows some improvement.
Yeah OK, but paying almost $800MM for a psuedo-DH is normal, right metsin4000?!?
Gwynning, are you seriously comparing Soto to Pete Crow Armstrong? Sounds like your a little bitter about him not signing with the Padres.
You said it’s crazy to extend young players, and I’m retorting that an $800MM DH is crazier. There is no comparing the two as players, they’re as vastly different as outfielders come. I am 100% not bitter, my friend. Enjoy the games!
So crazy that other teams offered him more money and 6 teams offered over 700m.
He isn’t a DH and implying he is dishonest but maybe I should change your name to Padres in never.
Sounds you like to sip the bitters! Good luck with Soto’s “defense”… you’re going to wish he’d just DH in a couple months! I hope we see you guys in the playoffs, if your staff can get you there!
🙂
I wouldn’t, unless he’s willing to sign for peanuts.
I like the idea of team’s locking up young players but not every single player after a decent rookie showing. Maybe I’m gun shy because of the Jon Singleton, Evan White, Sean Kingery deals. Even the Cubs got very little out of the David Bote extension
Extending Bote over Rizzo or Kris Bryant was ridiculous (at the time) in hindsight it was a good thing they didn’t extend Rizzo or Bryant but Bote didn’t earn one either. Hell, KB was never even offered an extension by the Cubs. He has a great poker face because after he filed for club manipulation he really kept it in. Not even sure if he’s openly talked about that. He knew he wasn’t going to win the case but he made a stand of teams not doing that in the future. Even though it’s not all that uncommon. He was just the first (that I know of) to fight it.
But they did extend Rizzo early to a very team friendly deal. They offered a a second deal that he turned down and has proven the Cubs offer was more than he’ll probably make for the rest of his career. Bryant was never going to accept an early extension and Baez had way too much risk.
I was referring to a 2nd one prior to the Cubs trading him in 2021. (Which likely doesn’t happen if tbe cubs don’t go on a 12 game losing streak after a combined No Hitter vs. the Dodgers in LA. It was a good thing they traded him. Kevin Alcantara is underrated. And probably should’ve made the team. Or least was allowed to travel to Japan with the team for the experience.
Not sure why you need to.
Teams and the players union already agreed to 6 years of subsidized control. Except in the rarest and most extreme of cases teams would be wise to let the process play out for at least 2-3 years.
They can always extend them later when they only have 2-3 years of control left and I dont see the rush to extend players you already control for 4+ more years. A couple extra yrs gives you time to assess exactly what player you are signing.
What about Jackson Chourio? He signed a big extension before ever playing a single ML game. He’s likely to have those “sophomore struggles’ I think he was overpaid. PCA is also better than him. Chourio might have a better bat but right now but PCA clears him on defense. Had PCA not been sent down last year. He likely wins the Gold Glove for CF.
Ridiculous statement. PCA is a defense first centerfielder. Chourio is potential hall of famer with the bat.
Chourio plays one season and he has HOF potential? And you called my comment ridiculous? Death (family guy) gif laughing here.
lol, potential hall of famer? Not a soul has put him anywhere near the level of a Soto let alone HOF. Drink more Brew Juice my friend to the north.
Chourio had 3.8 WAR in his age 20 season. Yes, HOF potential. PCA has a chance to be the next Kevin Kiermeier. Good player. But not Jackson Chourio. BTW – I’m a Dodgers fan.
@16 – Chourio is the youngest guy to have a 20/20 season how is that not HOF material if he keeps that up. The average WAR for a HOF is between 50-70, Jackson had a 3.9 fWAR his rookie year so if we set that has a baseline. By age 31-32 he would be at that 50ish mark with another couple years left if he stays healthy. Obviously this is barring serious injury.
PCA over Chourio? Whaaaaaat!!! I hope the comment section comes through on this one.
Comparing PCA to Chourio is one of the wildest MLB takes I’ve ever seen man tbh.
pca better than Chourio?
C’mon. What are we doin’ here?
Depends on large market or small market. Small market or even mid market teams now can’t afford to wait or they are priced out of their price range pretty quickly. That’s why Choruio and even Witt was done early as well as a host of others.
They have him for 6 more years before free agency, what would have happened if you locked up Bryant or Baez or better still Addison Russel???
I think its a bad idea to extend guys who haven’t proven they can hit in the big leagues. If they extend him, the upside is that he’s a star and they save, what, $20M over what they’d have paid in arb?. The downside is that he’s a grossly overpaid 4th OF struck on the roster for years. Bigger downside than upside.
Deals like that can also be bad for player development. Say they extend him now and he struggles for 3 months, the team wont want to send him down to work on his hitting, because he’s making a lot of money, and it would make the GM look bad.
Acuna is a great example. Tatis as well.
I wouldn’t do it right now, but I could definitely see it being an extremely good choice a year from now. I would want to see a true full season of success before PCA gets the bag.
Now do a similar article for every other team. Start with the Cardinals.
The Cubs should. PCA should bet on himself and play out his years until free agency and invest in a boatload of SPF 100 sunblock.
Yes, the Cubs should extend Pete Crow-Armstrong now.
His bat is uncertain, but his elite defense and baserunning already provide significant value. Defensive excellence is often underpaid relative to offensive production, meaning the Cubs can lock in a high-floor player at a discount. Even if he remains a league-average hitter, his overall impact justifies an extension, and if his bat improves, the deal could become a bargain. Waiting only increases the risk of paying more later or losing him entirely.
And what if he’s not league average? What if the league figures him out and he regresses and stays regressed?
They have 5 more years of control over him. There’s no real reason to do this now, as opposed to a year from now when they have a clearer idea of whether or not he will hit.
Yes, a year from now might cost them more money. But how much more, really? If he’s that good, any extension will save them significant money, anyway, especially on his last year of arb plus the couple of years they extend him.
@geofft
A year from now, the Cubs will not have the same leverage they do today. If Crow-Armstrong improves offensively, his arbitration trajectory and extension demands increase, meaning Chicago will pay a premium for the same player they could have locked in now at a discount. This is why front offices increasingly prioritize pre-arb extensions—teams are betting on the probability that a young player’s value will outpace his contract, not paying for certainty.
The “what if he doesn’t hit?” argument assumes stagnation without accounting for the fact that even with below-average offense, PCA remains an above-average major leaguer due to his elite defense and baserunning. The floor is already high. The downside of an early extension is marginal—teams structure these deals to include low-risk guarantees while capping long-term costs.
Meanwhile, the upside is asymmetric: if PCA refines his bat just slightly, his surplus value skyrockets. And if the Cubs delay, they’ll either (1) pay more for the same player later or (2) lose the chance to secure him long-term if his breakout elevates his market price beyond their comfort zone.
In short, waiting is a bet against their own player—one that carries far more risk than locking him up now at a price point reflective of uncertainty.
Yes, and they will.
that 5% walk rate screams YES
You can, literally, smell the desperation of such an extension. Trying so hard to cling to any meaningful return from the painful teardown.
They have to extend Justin Steele first. Then they can look to extend PCA and Busch, and spend on Tucker.
No. They should trade him to the Tigers.
For Riley Greene.
Only if he tightens up that surname, it’s a mouthful. How’s about Pete Crarmstrong?
Pete Crong, although I like Pete Crow because it makes me think of MST3K!
See how the season goes, there is no rush. If the Cubs have a good season the close prospects are going to be big in bolstering the team.
Boy could the Mets use a player like PCA right now. Oh well.
MLB just rated the Mets lineup number 2 in baseball. Vientos already proved to be a star and clutch in the playoffs. Keep the .239 hitter with 10 hrs lol
27 out of 30 stolen bases in 102 games and above average offensive numbers in the last few months of the season. His hard hit numbers doubled during this time. Improved at the same rate every level he’s played at. Most likely an above average player at a premium position for several years.
He wouldn’t even be on the roster. You do know Siri is an elite defender?
Change the rule. No extensions allowed. Every player must be a FA after six years (if not before). Some players will cash in big. Some will learn they have less market value then they thought. No player will get signed at a discount, and no team will be stuck with a mistake contract, without having a baseline to base their bidding on.
“No player will get signed at a discount, and no team will be stuck with a mistake contract…”
Except… everybody. Under your terms, each and every player would be categorized as either a value contract OR extremely overpaid. It would be the rare case to see the perfect FA contract evolve out.
If this guy put as much effort into his hitting as his stupid haircut he might be a great player.