This week's mailbag gets into how long Paul Skenes will stay a Pirate, Alex Bregman opt-out scenarios, the NL East favorite, extensions for young Nationals players, potential Sandy Alcantara trade returns, the automated ball-strike system, and much more.
John asks:
I figure the Bucs' cheap owner will trade Skenes before his first arbitration year because he will never pay that kind of salary. If I'm right, when is his final year in Pittsburgh?
After the 2026 season, Paul Skenes will have three years of Major League service time and will be eligible for arbitration. Barring an extension, Skenes and the Pirates will go through the arbitration process early in 2027, and his salary will take a huge leap that season.
How much of a leap is hard to predict not knowing what numbers Skenes will put up in 2025 and '26. Remarkably, the first-time arbitration record for a starting pitcher remains Dallas Keuchel's $7.25MM from 2015, though prior to that Tim Lincecum at least topped $10MM as the midpoint between his $13MM filing figure and the Giants' $8MM. Clayton Kershaw had a midpoint of $8.25MM once as well. But the first-time starting pitcher arbitration market is not one that moves easily.
Arbitration eligible players are tendered contracts because they offer surplus value to their teams, star players included. Corbin Burnes, for example, won the NL Cy Young award in 2021 and was paid $6.55MM in 2022, $10.01MM in '23 (after losing a hearing to the Brewers), and $15,637,500 in '24.
A healthy Skenes should be able to top Burnes' $32.2MM in total arbitration earnings, but even $45MM for that three-year period might represent a single season of what he could earn in free agency.
Say Skenes is a 6-WAR type player. Bob Nutting has owned the Pirates since January 2007; what has happened with this team and similar players since he took over?
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Zero chance Bregman doesn’t opt out next offseason if he stays healthy and puts up at least a 4.5 WAR this year.
Nutting’s minions will calculate the extra revenue Skenes brings in when he pitches . As soon as this number drops below his arbitration salary the GM will be told to start shopping him.
If a business has a product on which it is losing money, should it keep selling that product?
Bob Nutting, owner of the Pirates, has demonstrated that he WILL spend the money necessary to sign his best players to contract extensions.
He has, over the past three seasons, given long-term extensions to Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, and Mitch Keller.
In the past, he has extended Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Francisco Liriano, Josh Harrison, Francisco Cervelli, and Gregory Polanco.
Based upon the $10.15 million, one-year contract that Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal signed to avoid arbitration, a reasonable extension for Skenes would be 8 years for $140 million with two $30 Million team options. That would bring the total value to $200 Million and keep Skenes in Pittsburgh for the next ten years.
You’re about $300 million light there.
Skenes might be paid $300 million more as a free agent, but free agency is 5 seasons away and for the next two years he will be making near the league minimum.
The incentive for him to sign the extension I suggested above is to start making much bigger money now. As I wrote, Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal signed a one-year, $1o million contract to avoid arbitration. So, I propose giving Skenes $10 million this year, which is a raise for him of more than $9 Million. Then, increase every year for the following 7 seasons.to a high in the last year of about $25 million. Then, team options at $30 million .
That protects Skenes earnings against injury or subpar performance and enables him to start making big money sooner.
He might sell his arb years and a single free agent season but nothing beyond that.
He’s a generational talent and, barring injury, he’ll be paid like it. If he performs as projected he will be net the highest ever FA contract for a pitcher. By a lot
Skenes could blow out his arm and miss the rest of his Pirate tenure and despite this reality they made absolutely ZERO effort to improve the team this winter.
The Pirates should just trade him now for the biggest return in MLB history and hope it turns into the baseball version of the Herschel Walker deal. Maybe they could pool enough young cheap good players together to actually compete and maybe possibly hope to win.
Instead, they’ll just slog along and pinch pennies until they squander the gift that fell into their laps and do nothing.
That’s why, were I a GM, my teams would always finish under .500. Committing to pitchers these days is too big a risk. No way I would sign a pitcher, regardless of how great he is, to a 7, 8, 9-year deal. I doubt I’d even go 5 these days. Sign a pitcher for five years and, if you’re lucky, get half of that in return? Pass.
I don’t trust Cherington enough to obtain good players in return for Skenes.
Why would you?
I wonder if anyone wants to reevaluate just how amazing what Huntingdon did here was with the context of how little Cherington has managed to achieve in the same chair.
What did they need that they didn’t go out and get though? Keeping in mind that the Juan Soto’s and Corbin Burnes’ were never going to happen (Sasaki either), who should they have signed that would improve the team?
They possibly upgraded at first but could have gone bigger.
They could have upgraded at 2B, they got Adam Frazier instead. Same in the OF, got Pham.
Who is their SS? Do they have a plan if Cruz and Hayes are bad again?
Getting even average players at some of these spots could have given the pitching staff a chance.
That Sandy trade haul for the Marlins at the deadline will be _______ ?
I say underwhelming.
Tim,I don’t know if you read these comments, but I enjoyed this mailbag immensely, especially the mention of Caleb Joseph, whose #36 is on the only jersey I own.
Here’s a fervent prayer the Evil Empire doesn’t trade for Alcantara, though. That would not be good for the Baltimore boys..
Wow, only 1 year under his his belt and their talking about his exit?