As is the case every year, Spring Training has brought a handful of significant pitching injuries. The Yankees have been hit the hardest. They confirmed this evening that they’re losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery — a week after Luis Gil went down for months with a lat strain. The Mets will open the season without Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas. The Mariners (George Kirby) and Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez) will each begin the year without a pitcher who would’ve been in the upper half of their respective rotations.
The injuries have reignited speculation about a Spring Training jolt to the trade market. A few fanbases are surely hoping their teams can line up with the Padres. San Diego entertained interest in impending free agents Dylan Cease and Michael King early in the offseason. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has shown a willingness to make significant trades at unconventional times on the calendar, including last spring’s deal to land Cease from the White Sox.
That still seems unlikely. Preller indicated at the start of camp that the team’s focus was on retaining its rotation. That hasn’t stopped teams from calling about the Padres’ top two starters. However, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that King is “virtually assured” of sticking with San Diego into the regular season. The door seems just slightly more open on Cease. Acee reports that the Padres would only consider moving Cease if the return includes a significant upgrade in one or more of their weakest lineup positions: catcher, left field, and designated hitter.
Budgetary constraints limited the Padres’ free agent activity for most of the offseason. They moved late to add Nick Pivetta on an extremely backloaded four-year free agent deal. A few days later, they brought in Kyle Hart on a $1.5MM contract. They could round out the rotation behind Cease, King, and Yu Darvish. San Diego opted for low-cost acquisitions to fill out the lineup. Elias Díaz is back on a $3.5MM contract to catch. They added Jason Heyward and Connor Joe for a combined $2MM to work as the left field platoon. The Padres don’t have a set designated hitter.
Rotation depth is still a question. Hart is coming off a strong season in Korea, but he has 11 career MLB innings (which came five years ago). Injuries will force them to rely on the likes of Randy Vásquez, Stephen Kolek and Matt Waldron throughout the season. It’s hard to envision them trading Cease without netting at least one starting pitcher who’d jump directly into their rotation. Other teams are presumably reluctant to part with a controllable starter and a significant lineup upgrade. That’s especially true at a stage of the offseason when they wouldn’t have many options to backfill the lineup in free agency.
King and Cease could be the subject of more realistic trade rumors in a few months depending on the team’s place in the standings. They’d be highly sought after rental targets if the Padres underperform in the first half. San Diego will almost certainly make qualifying offers to both pitchers if they don’t deal them, but they’d land much stronger prospect returns in trade if they fall out of contention.
Lol getting paid by the word
It’s good work if you can get it
Is it tho
We almost went a full month without hearing about Dylan Cease.
Let’s talk, Steiny. I’ll be honest- i just don’t think you have the “proper” pieces to swing this deal. If Cease (or King, they’re equitable) was being shopped legitimately (which nobody in SD believes) other teams could theoretically offer a better package. The Yanks system is noticably weak right now. Now that you know how I feel… what would you offer? Spencer Jones alone doesn’t cut it, and I’m essentially disinterested in him anyway. Which leaves a core trade piece as… whom exactly? Always nice to chat with ya!
That’s the thing about these whole Cease rumors is that I don’t think the Yankees even have what the Padres want, and that can even apply to more than half of the teams, too. It also leads me to believe the Padres won’t even trade him away either. Nice chatting with you too also, Gwynning.
Good luck amigo! Bummer about Gil and Cole Train. Cheers
Oh lord Simp-Brenner trying to make a fwend
Take notes BITA and maybe one day you can find a friend… err, fwend.
Who are you talking to?
Not you anymore, kid!
Dweeb
Gwynn – Joel now has yet ANOTHER new handle? Jags? Damn that’s sad.
As for the Yanks, their situation is not as bad as some make it out to be. They are still the favorite to win the AL pennant and have the 2nd-best odds to win the World Series.
A healthy Fried and Rodon returing to 2022 form should carry them into the postseasoh. I think they need to sign JDM ASAP.
Lol * look we’re MLBTR fwends! *
Lmao
BAHAHA! Couldn’t happen to a better guy than Cole!
Is this really Alek Manoah’s account?
I like your demeanor :)
Yep we made it a couple of weeks this time. MLBTR really wants this to happen.
Check out the chat dialogue. It’s been just 2 days
Oh that’s right I forgot. I was generous
Why would the Padres give up these guys now? Unless the team is desperate to shed payroll, you might as well wait and see what happens.
A wise man once said “if you listen to the wind and don’t hear any trade rumors, then make up your own.”
Possibility they get hurt near the trade deadline and you’re stuck with…..nothing.
You just described… every single player, Stan. Can’t live or think like that. Play the games and run with what ya brung. Go Pads
I mean, if a team wants to pay more than the value of what they’d give up.. if you can make your team more likely to win.. and at least one of cease and king won’t be a Padre next year if they’re good and healthy. Might as well listen to desperate offers, right?
Preller will always listen to offers. We know what he was asking during the winter meetings for Cease and it was huge. A top 30 overall prospect that was MLB ready, 2 MLB ready SP, and another MLB player. Example from the Red Sox – Mayer, Abreu, Fitts, and Gonzalez (who was part of Crochet trade later).
The Padres have enough money coming off the books next season that they can absolutely afford both King and Cease. Will they sign both? Probably not.
Padres will have Musgrove, Darvish, and Pivetta plus all the depth starters back next season. Adding either Cease or King back into the mix keeps them as one of the best and deepest rotations in baseball.
Yankees are gonna try to trade back some lesser prospects for King lol.
Everyone tries to trade lesser prospects. You never reveal your max prince in a negotiation.
But I mean as compared to the haul that King/Higashioka, etc. represented for Soto last time.
never ever reveal Max Prince in negotiation.
Especially if you are trading for a King.
Pads not looking good this spring.
Found the Dodger troll!
Come on Gwynning, I’m just pointing out the obvious that the Pads don’t look good this spring. It doesn’t mean anything tho, I mean the Giants have the best record in the Cactus League and the Rockies are not far behind.
It’s Spring. Wake me when they count in the W/L columns. Good luck Diggs, anything less than a ring is a disappointment for your Blue this year. In my humble opinion, of course…
Gwynn – You mean the White Sox beating a star-filled Dodgers lineup 5-2 last week doesn’t mean Chicago is a World Series contender or the Dodgers suck?
Spring Training is for the ballplayers to get in shape after the long Winter layoff.
Rarely do teams topping the Standings in Spring
Training win the Pennant and/or the WS.
I doubt the Blue Jays and the Rockies are making the playoffs this ( I could be wrong) even though they are doing well in Spring Training.
No one likes losing, in Spring training or otherwise. However, this Spring I’ve been far less concerned about a losing Padres S.T.. Their core guys are gonna be there. Many of the lost games were lost with minor leaguers in the game. The clown show with multiple fielding errors have features guys who won’t be on the game day MLB roster (if ever). The Padres have certain roles to fill, and except for an offensive-effective catcher, most of their needs are rounding into form..
Particularly pitching. I would wager that most fans were terrified not of losing Profar or Higgy, even considering their contributions, but with starting pitching. Losing Musgrove, possibly trading King and Cease, an old and frequently IL’s Darvish, didn’t bode well for 2025. Now, there are viable starting options for the #5 starting role or fill-in innings in case of injury The bullpen looks strong even with two of their anticipated late inning regulars being on the IL at the start of the season.
So, yes, losing most of the S.T. games sucks and is concerning, but this isn’t the Padres April roster losing. The 2025 Padres can be fine, as long as the guys stay healthy. A “Merrill” type break out star from the minors, and/or NRI veterans panning out, would be helpful, though.
The W/L is meaningless. But I do like to track which players are over- or under-performing.
I very seldom pay any attention to stats early in camp. Until pitchers start going 4 or more innings, they are sometimes throwing 70-80% of one pitch. Either a new pitch or one they are working on.
A perfect example was Aroldis Chapman on Saturday who threw more than 50% splitters and gave up 3 hits and 2 runs. Afterwards he said he was working on his splitter but couldn’t get them to chase and they were teeing off (my rods, not his) on his sinker. will we ever see a regular season game where Chapman throws 50% splitters?
I especially ignore the late innings of early spring training games Its mostly minor league players and guys on an NRI. The team won’t look like that even 3 weeks later in camp, let alone in the regular season.
@OldSaltUSN And on top of everything you said, I believe SD has arguably the best manager in baseball, Shildt knows how to communicate with players and just exudes old-school baseball wisdom out of his pores…love listening to his postgame interviews. Shildt/Niebla can add an extra 5 wins between them.
You have to change your name now, Iggy. You have graduated from Ignorant after that post!
:)
Deep down Preller knows making the post season is a long shot. Holes in LF and C, no slug off the bench and a paper thin rotation. Having said that, he is not going to give these guys away now. Deadline most likely when they are out of it.
Huh? Longshot?? What?!?!
A 1-4 rotation of Cease, King, Darvish, Pivetta is pretty darn good, Dan-O. The lineup core is healthier and the lineup itself is essentially the same as last year’s sans Profar, Higgy and a broken HSK. Hard to imagine they miss the playoffs.
Better than AZ, NYM, ATL and Philly? Would have to beat out one of them with Diaz at catcher, HeyJoe in LF, no plausible MLB quality 5-7 starter and where is the offense off the bench? Laughable.
It’s really not a terribly different team from last year. Substitute Pivetta for Musgrove and Iglesias for Kim. C was bailed out by a career year from Higashioka and Profar was a revelation. LF, C, and DH will be weak points on this team, but I think one of Rosario or Ornelas can have a league-average bat, even better if they can platoon them in LF/DH. A lot broke right for the Padres last year, but I think this team is anywhere from mid-80s to low-90s wins.
Straight up, honest guy. Lol
90 wins? No one and I mean no one has them optimistically getting past 86. One of those top 4 starters going down for a few weeks and 80 wins is tough. The 23 team was better than this and won 82.
You kinda swing the pendulum the other way with that analogy, Dan. The ’23 Padres that won 82… with a rotation of Dick Mountain, Pedro Avila, Nick Martinez and Jackson Wolf? Doesn’t hold a candle to Cease, King, etc. ’25 Pads are better. Substantially, at that.
You forgot Wacha and Lugo and Musgrove.
No I didn’t. So include the bottom of the ’25 options: Waldron, Vasquez and Brito are night & day better than Wolf, Weathers, Avila…
Plus Hart and Hoeing. The depth is nice.
Don’t see them contributing anything. All 3 can’t find home plate. Pretty worthless.
Their current O/U odds are 85.5, 90 wins is possible.
Padres got 35 starts from Darvish and Musgrove last year. They got 46 starts from Waldron and Vasquez. This team has arguably better depth than last year with Hart and Kolek moving to the rotation.
The 23 was an anomaly. Bad bench and average bullpen, but they were snakebit in 1-run games. It happens. Go look up the Padres 24 OD roster and compare it to this. Padres didn’t have Arraez, Solano, or Peralta until May. They didn’t have Hoeing, Scott, and Adam until the trade deadline. Padres have a better bench at this point of the year, and probably a worse LF and C.
And a worse minors system to tap into.
Undoubtedly a reload year for the farm. We’ll see if the ML talent holds/stays healthy.
Hart? Really. You’re right he is Snell’s offset. What has he shown? Guys. I know you are diehard fans that guzzle the kool aid. But be real. Those trades they made last year don’t happen this year unless DeVries or Salas are part of the move. This team will struggle to 80. They are not better than AZ, NY, ATL or Philly. They will battle with Brewers for 7th best.
Who said he’s Snell’s offset lol. He might be Waldron’s replacement this year, you know, the fifth starter. This team is a game within projections of AZ, brother. Yeah, the team’s gonna have to get creative come trade deadline if they’re looking to add, but you’re acting like they’ve got a snowball’s chance at the playoffs.
Everyone has the Padres winning more than 86. LAs Vegas has them at 87.5-89.5 wins.
The 2023 team had Melvin and his “hands off managing style” to blame for their record. Its why they let him walk. Did you notice what that team did once Preller basically handed the reins to Flaherty in late August?
The 2024 team was not close to this team at this point in spring training and they won 93. Cease, Arraez, Peralta, and Solano were not even on the team. Profar was coming off a negative WAR season in 2023.
Please STFU. You are embarrassing yourself. Your trolling is pathetically bad.
Their current O/U odds range from 87.5 to 89.5 wins.
So your argument is that improvements are forthcoming (using what to acquire them) and Heyward is going to have a Profar resurrection?
Why would Heyward have to have a Profar resurrection? He is not the starting LF. He is the 5th OF. A platoon OF that Shildt said they expect to get 250-300 PA this season. Why would there need to be any improvements? This team is better today than they were to start last season. They are better than the team on the field at the end of last season. They are deeper today than they were at any point last season. Especially the pitching.
Take your trolling elsewhere. Each and every attempt at a post makes you look worse and worse.
Floating in the ether of your mind must be a most comfortable numbness.
Things can always go sideways, but the Padres should cruise to 88-89 wins.
Playoffs are always a crap shoot. Strong rosters are required, deep rosters essential, but luck and health still plays a major part in getting there, and a huge part in progressing in the post season.
The Padres have a very deep, top rated rotation
and half their lineup is All Star caliber.
Their Defense is very strong as is their bench.
If the Padres can get more production out of the lower half of their
lineup then the sky is the limit.
Just try to win a World Series. Make the wild card, anybody can knock off the Dodgers with the randomness of MLB playoffs. The only way you should trade them is if somebody like the Orioles or Yankees get desperate and overpays.
100%
Agree plus you can never have too much pitching
Anyone who uses that quote (originally from gunslinger Kevin Towers, but a common saying through out the majors anyhow), immediately sounds like an experienced and knowledgeable baseball fan.
That’s why I repeat it when I’m brushing my teeth, bathing, eating, startin’ up the car, i.e. every chance I get.
Mainly, ’cause it’s beyond true. Plus, I’m a VERY smart baseball fan, and that quote alone proves it!. :-)
Good to see a fellow old salt
While brushing teeth? I say it to our German shepherds
Dealing now will get them more as long as padres willing to accept prospects. There will be fewer suitors at mid season
Love the strategy being used off the field.
The Padres are not just manipulating the trade market; they are establishing a “game theoretic liquidity lock.” They are creating a situation where teams are forced to make irrational decisions due to perceived scarcity and time pressure. This isn’t just about maximizing return on Cease; it’s about establishing a precedent for future transactions.
Go for Sandy, Cash!
Come get Taijuan Walker Yanks!!!!!
On at least 4 occasions this offseason Shildt has said that the Padres will not have one single player that is the DH, that he will use that position to rotation players through to get them rest while keeping their bats in the lineup.
The Joe, Ornelas, Heyward platoon in LF should do just fine. The only real question mark is at catcher.
I think LF is still a huge ?, but Ornelas’ batted ball metrics are really exciting so far.
It is still early in camp, but Ornelas 4 mph increase in exit velocity over last season is encouraging. He came into camp in awesome shape and intent on competing for a starting job. I hope that he continues to hit as spring training continues into the last week and wins that job.
Padres have Ornelas and 2 proven MLB players that can platoon in LF. Combine Joe vs LHP and Heyward VS RHP and you have an above league average hitter.
Yeah, between Ornelas, Rosario, Heyward, and Joe, I think they’ll be able to cobble together at least one ML average platoon. A bit worried about Heyward’s bat taking the bulk of the starts in LF unless Ornelas can show reasonably well out there, though. Hoping bench is going to be Heyward/Joe, Rosario, Iglesias, and Campusano/Sullivan.
Oops I forgot Ornelas.. I would really like to see them send Joe down just because he’s got an option, but I can’t imagine they’d do that after inking a ML contract. They need Heyward and Iglesias for the glove + platoon/reliever match ups, and I like the upside of Ornelas and Rosario offensively. I guess they could send down Ornelas too, but that doesn’t feel like Preller’s MO. Feels like they’re going to lose out on either Rosario or Iglesias to roster crunch.
Sheets isn’t going down quietly
Not my cup of tea, .310 wOBA vs. righties is a bit weak for a guy who’ll be locked into 1B/DH. But as a depth option, he’s solid.
Sheets doesn’t make contact often, but when he does it clears the OF fence.
One of those tidbits that makes you say hmmmm is that Ornelas avg and max exit velocity has been higher than Sheets’ this spring.
His career has been to entice with upside power but ultimately fall into slumps. They’ll probably give him a good look in AAA where they need 1B depth and then if he proves consistently good, or there’s an injury, maybe he gets a call up
I’ll be honest, I think the speculation is barking up the wrong tree here.
1. I can’t see SD trading these guys right now. They have a legit chance to contend despite some lineup questions. If they’re out at the deadline, Preller is blowing it up a bit, though.
2. I think if the Yanks try for anyone they’re going for someone that won’t cost much in terms of cash or prospects. I believe they believe they already have an ace in Fried, and I sorta believe we can at least weather the Cole storm with him at the top fine. I think we either go with a low price free agent option (Gibson would be preferred), or we trade a low prospect or two for Montgomery.
So I’d be shocked if NY and SD link up right now. And not because I believe the Yankees don’t have the prospects. Contrary to the haters, we absolutely do, I just feel like for now, hold off on trading some of the bigger ones. Let’s also see where WE’RE at at the deadline.
Preller is not blowing it up. They are locked into multiple players for years to come. Preller may reload, but he won’t blow it up.
The Yankees do not have what it would take to get either King or Cease. When teams came calling for Cease, Preller consistently asked for a Top 30 in MLB prospect that was MLB ready, 2 MLB ready SP prospects, and another MLB player. We have examples from 3 teams where we know exactly who he asked for and a 4th where we know about the Top prospect and pitching prospects he asked for. The Yankees cannot meet that high of an asking price.
The Yanks sent less out for Soto than what you perceive Cease is fetching. They can ask for whatever they want, but they were firmly refuted and Preller knows that. The longer it goes, the less he’s worth to anyone. Especially at the deadline if they’re out if it. Doubtful they’re extending Cease or King. If they are out, both are likely traded as well as Croenworth and anyone not tied down to a big contract.
They sent much, much more for Soto. 4 MLB players plus a top 100 prospect.
The longer it goes and the more pitchers like Cole that get hurt the more Cease is worth.
Unless the Yanks work another team into the trade. But these rumors are getting so old.
They would have to in order to put together a package that would interest Preller. The Yankees don’t have the players on their roster to get it done.
It would likely require a third team, or the addition of Cronenworth and his contract.
Why would the Padres trade Cronenworth?. His last 2 seasons playing at 2B he averaged 4.4 WAR. If he plays 140 games at 2B in 2025 and hits exactly the same as he did in 2024, he will have a WAR near 3.4. He has positional flexibility to fill in at multiple positions.
Explain why they would trade a 3+ WAR player who will only be making $11 million? That is why Preller has consistently said he sees no scenario where they would trade him.
Fingers-crossed Cease to the Orioles for Kjerstad!
When the Orioles called about Cease during the Winter Meetings Preller asked for Basallo or Mayo, 2 SP including Povich and McDermott, and another player. Why would he take a lesser headliner now?
I don’t see AJ Preller trading anyone before the deadline but
Any trade of Cease to anyone would have to include at a minimum one MLB ready starting pitcher if not two, a corner OF and a Bat that is not just a DH only type…all have to be MLB ready for this season…not low level A or AA players of any sort.
I think the Padres may trade Cease and get back a very nice package including another young starter and help for LF and 1B.
Iglesias had a solid offensive year, is great defensively and should be
starting @ 2B.
And, I have a feeling that Preller has another trade up his sleeve besides a Cease deal to fortify other areas of the team and may deal some prospects to do deal #2.
The Padres have a chance to go deep into the playoffs and get to the World Series this year (and a chance at winning it).
When their team is this close and one timely hot streak at the end of the season and into the playoffs away from a Title,,,
It would be very wise to make more deals, if available..
Just do not trade SS Devries and/or Catcher Ethan Salas.
Both those players are “cornerstone players””
who will be starting for the Padres sometime in ’26 or early ’27.