Yankees fans have been nervously awaiting news regarding ace Gerrit Cole ever since he was sent for “diagnostic tests” on his elbow on Friday. Today, Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that Cole has been recommended for Tommy John surgery, though the Yankees are currently waiting to receive a second opinion to confirm that diagnosis. The news is in line with reporting yesterday that indicated Cole was “concerned” about his elbow and that the righty was seeking a second opinion on the issue.
If the diagnosis is confirmed, the Yankees would lose Cole for not only the 2025 season but likely at least some of the 2026 campaign as well. Even if a second opinion suggests that Cole could rehab the issue rather than go under the knife, even a relatively minor elbow issue could wipe out much of Cole’s 2025 campaign. It was just last year that the veteran right-hander was sidelined by elbow inflammation for nearly three months at the start of the season and ultimately did not make his season debut until June 19. While it’s impossible to establish a timetable for Cole’s return until the second opinion comes in and the Yankees announce more information about their veteran’s status, even the most optimistic of estimates would likely leave Cole out of commission for around that long.
Last season, the Yankees were able to lean on the surprise contributions of eventual AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil to round out their rotation while Cole was absent. They’ll enjoy no such luxury this time around, as Gil is ticketed to miss multiple months himself due to a lat strain. With Cole and Gil both seemingly ticketed for significant absences to open the 2025 campaign, a starting staff that was so overflowing with talent that the Yankees opted to trade Nestor Cortes to the Brewers and aggressively shopped Marcus Stroman throughout the winter will now be searching for answers as they attempt to patch together the back of their rotation.
The good news for the Yankees is that their rotation is still reasonably well-stocked. Max Fried is a viable ace-in-waiting to pick up the slack from the loss of Cole, while Clarke Schmidt and Carlos Rodon maintain their spots in the middle of the club’s projected rotation. With Stroman sliding into the back of the rotation after entering camp projected for a possible long relief role, that leaves just one spot in the club’s starting five that will need to be filled for the first few months of the season.
The club has a handful of internal options at its disposal, even with well-regarded prospect Chase Hampton having undergone Tommy John surgery himself last month. The top option on the club’s 40-man roster as things stand is right-hander Will Warren, who made his big league debut last year. That cup of coffee at the big league level did not go over very well, as Warren was shelled to the tune of a 10.32 ERA in 22 2/3 innings of work. That was just a glimpse into Warren’s struggles last year, as he also floundered at the Triple-A level with a 5.91 ERA across 23 starts at the highest level of the minors. With that being said, the 25-year-old has impressed so far this spring with a 1.13 ERA in three appearances. If the Yankees believe the issues that plagued Warren in 2024 are behind him, it’s easy to imagine him being chosen as the fifth starter despite the question marks much like Gil last year.
Warren isn’t the only option the Yankees have at their disposal, however, as a handful of non-roster invitees are in camp with the club at present. Veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco is just days away from his 38th birthday and has struggled badly the past two years with a 6.18 ERA in 193 2/3 innings of work for the Mets and Guardians, but his 15 years of MLB experience could offer the club some veteran stability at the back of the rotation even if Carrasco’s overall results are very likely to be well below average. Right-hander Allan Winans and southpaw Brandon Leibrandt are among the club’s other non-roster invitees who could theoretically be called upon.
Another option, of course, would be to look outside the organization for rotation help. That’s surely not the Yankees’ preferred course of action; after all, budget concerns kept them from adding a surefire infielder at second or third base to pair with Jazz Chisholm Jr. this winter, leaving the club to sort through lackluster options like Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and the now-injured DJ LeMahieu at the hot corner. With that being said, former Yankee Jordan Montgomery could surely be acquired from the Diamondbacks for virtually no cost other than eating a portion of the lefty’s salary after his difficult 2024 campaign, while interesting options like Kyle Gibson and Spencer Turnbull remain available in free agency. That’s hardly an exhaustive list of potential external candidates, though many clubs may prefer to hold their potential trade chips until the trade deadline at this stage in the calendar unless overwhelmed by an offer.
Uh oh!
Is right
Sman – Agreed!
Why on Earth would Cole agree to forego the additional 2029 contract year just to stay with the Yankees? He damn well knew he would likely need TJS, that’s why.
Exact same reason why Sale rushed to sign the Red Sox extension in 2019, he damn well knew he would likely need TJS.
These pitchers know their own body, they know how their arm feels, and they are smart enough to sign a contract before the surgery is required …. Giolito did the exact same thing, taking the 2-year overpay when other teams were willing to give him only one year.
At least the Padres were smart with Pivetta’s deal.
Hmmm – not sure that is true. It’s not like the Yankees went out to sign him – he pitched in the World Series for them. And he looked good on his first outing. While I don’t know either way, it doesn’t feel like Cole was trying to “get one over” on the Yankees
FPG: With all due respect, that’s not the most insightful comment.
First, he opted out and opted back in shortly after being healthy and pitching in the World Series.
Second, if he knew he was going to need surgery, why did he wait until spring training and pitch with it instead of having the procedure in November so he would now be four months into recovery?
Third, since you have no way to prove your assertion, it sounds like a wacko conspiracy theory.
Blue Baron: Good points. Not his first unfounded claim.
You should change your screen name to Freezer Pitch because you have the coldest takes on this website.
@Fever Pitch Guy
Did you not think that Boras would’ve had Cole undergo a full physical independently before deciding to exercise his opt-out? I’m aware that you don’t like Boras but he’s not dumb. Did you also think that the Yankees didn’t have Cole go through another physical before taking him back? These are two experienced entities which have handled billions of dollars worth of contracts.
Cole’s arm gave up when it heard that Goldy was being signed to play first base. Just like Cole’s legs gave up when it was time to cover first base in the WS.
Have it done. Move on. Return July 2026.
Damn Yankees
He can share a room with Giancarlo.
And boras tried to get Cole an extra year knowing he was hurt what a disgraceful agent. Should be barred from baseball
Ugh. Major bummer.
Unfortunately he’s been delaying the inevitable. This is probably why he didn’t opt out.
He did opt out though
“Did opt out”…Apparently. And the Yankees told him “no” and suddenly he was “opted” back in.
do we know what became of that? Is the previous pre-opt out contract still ongoing now?
it was kind of weird. basically it seemed like he opted out and Yankees said original contract terms take it or leave it, so he re-signed-at those terms. if I am not mistaken.
He was signed to be one.
This
This is why you keep a guy like Marcus Stroman.
This is why you need an all star for the first 2 months and then a 9 era past June
Does he moonlight as a surgeon?
When your season is over before it ever begins…..
“Before it ever begins”…Ine of the benefits of a HUGE payroll like the Yankees is the depth they are allowed and able to accumulate. As good as Gerrit Cole has been the last 7+ years, How many other teams have a PAIR of TOR types in Max Fried and Carlos Rodon waiting in the wings to take over as top of rotation warriors? Just remember, it could always be worse.
mlb fan:
OK, but Rodon is not a top of the rotation pitcher. And a top of the rotation “warrior”? Absolutely not.
“Not a top”…His contract suggests somebody on the Yankees thought Rodon was a TOR pitcher. And the $22M/yr he was making before he signed with the Bombers suggests the same.
I don’t know, ask New York’s Brian Cashman why Carlos Rodon is paid like a TOR if he isn’t.
mlb fan:
Uh maybe because Brian Cashman made a mistake? If Brian Cashman had it to do over again, he would not have given him that contract again. So you think because the Yankees overpaid him off the two best seasons of his career that makes him a top of the rotation pitcher? That’s a silly argument and not evidence at all.It’s not the amount of money a guy makes, it’s his performance. Go look at his numbers. In 10 seasons he’s had exactly 2 years that would be considered top of the rotation type seasons. Those two seasons are what got him his Yankee contract. In two years with the Yankees, he has not been a top of the rotation starter.
@MLB fan – what kind of logic is that? Just cause a team is willing to overpay doesn’t make you a TOR guy. The stats don’t support him being anywhere near that with the Yankees.
Carlos Rodon isn’t a top of the rotation pitcher. What’s his career ERA as a Yankee?
Yeah, and in his 10 year career he’s only had two seasons that can be considered top of the rotation worthy. And of course, neither of those seasons were with the Yankees. Although those seasons are what earned him the bloated contract he got with the Yankees.
Fried is a really good pitcher but he’s 31 years old and has thrown over 180 IP in a season once.
Cole has surpassed 200 IP 6 times, dude has been a workhorse.
Awful. Gonna miss you ace
At least he opted out 1st and got the bag lol
He didn’t get the bag. He opted out, the Yankees declined to add the extra year, and he opted back in.
Maybe a first base joke since he didn’t cover that bag in the world series
ugggg….. what a gut shot. Let the Cashman shoulda coukda woulda bull begin. In so glad he got Fried. Hopefully he can stay healthy and be the ace we need.
The worst part of following baseball is watching pitcher after pitcher go down with season ending injuries… In spring training, no less.
Agreed – it just gets worse and worse as the years go on.
Is it up to 1/3 of all pitchers in the majors and minors have undergone TJ surgery, or has it climbed past that?
—MLB can soften the ball and let especially starting pitchers do something more elegant than go all out on every pitch, but reducing HRs is probably the last thing we’ll see even though that rates to reduce pitching injuries and let starters go longer into games.
Yankees suck
I’m no Yankees fan but this seems like the wrong time/place for that sort of post. We should all hope for good health and/or recovery for the players.
Agreed JJJ. I’m a Dodger fan but seeing any player go down with an injury is a sad thing, especially a great player like Cole and especially with a serious injury that this appears to be. People who laugh at the situation or react like the immature rsox..57 are not real baseball fans.
Some guys just Mute themselves.
Wow, if the Yankees went to the World Series and suck, what does that say about the Red Sox?!
Dumb take rsox. Yankees lost their “Ace and your lack of empathy is disturbing.
Dave- this is the Yankees we’re talking about, but I could just be getting old. Maybe that’s the Dodger’s position these days
Knicks – Most of us, including me, knew it was a mistake for Cashman to keep Cole.
Go look it up, the comments are still there.
Most of us are NOT Monday morning quarterbacks as you seem to imply.
Just look at the list of top pitchers who have gone down over the recent years.
These days, every pitcher is susceptible to injury, so there is no if/and here because you never know.
His in-law Brandon Crawford isn’t too busy these days so he can help.
He can help by batting .180
Hopefully, the Yankees have at least some of this contract insured.
Either way though still counts towards the luxury tax
This stinks, both as a Yankees fan and a baseball fan. There’s no definitive word on what seems to be a significant increase in TJs and other major surgeries, but throwing very hard does seem to play a role. Yankees will probably need another arm.
Where is the evidence to back up that claim?
From Kerlan Jobe institute kerlanjobe.org/50-years-tommy-john-surgery/
Throughout the early 90s, the surgery remained relatively rare, with less than 10 MLB pitchers having Tommy John surgery every year. In 1996, the count had nearly doubled. By 2012, a record 69 MLB pitchers had Tommy John surgery in a single year.
Today, MLB players numbering in the hundreds have undergone Tommy John surgery, and it’s estimated that more than 2,200+ surgeries have been performed across all levels of baseball, including high school, college and the minors.
The less pitchers throw, the more injured they become.
@Mustard Tiger Yeah, no. It’s the HARDER pitchers throw, the more injured they become.
If it was merely innings pitched or the number of pitches thrown we’d see much greater longevity among relievers—but of course that’s not happening.
If your thesis was true, it means no team, not even the Rays, not even the Dodgers, have figured out they can thrive just by having their best pitchers throw a lot more innings. But of course they aren’t doing that.
That is part of the problem. A lot of guys are just throwing and not pitching.. The almighty spin rate plus velocity, has taken the career expectancy of a pitcher down a few notches.
Well freddie, the evidence is pretty much everywhere. Where have you been?
Increase compared to what?
kerlanjobe.org/50-years-tommy-john-surgery/
No surprise after all the quotes from this weekend.
I do think the Yankees are in a better spot to handle Cole’s absence than they were last year. Rodon has fewer availability questions, Schmidt has proven himself as a more than capable starter, and Fried is a reliable pitcher on Cole’s level.. Will Warren is probably more trustworthy than Gil was going into last year as well. This is a massive loss, but one that will not sink the ship for good.
Fried is not that reliable health wise.
No. But he’s more reliable than Cortes was going into last year.
Yeah, they’re still a good team but this is a major blow.
This is a bigger blow than what Trixie does out back of the truck stop.
That’s an optimistic assessment, BCF, though not entirely unreasonable.
But, lord, when Carlos Carrasco appears to be an actual rotation option (or on the cusp of becoming one), you’re in trouble
As for Clarke Schmidt, 85 ip in MLB in 2024, 97 ip overall. 2023 was his lucky year, wrt health, but 159 innings sent his ERA to 4.64. 2022? 90 innings total, 57 in MLB.
Rodon had a below league average FIP in 2024, a disastrous 2023, and still has just the one excellent season with 25+ starts. Credit’s due for his superb 2021, but the Yankees need starts, innings, desperately.
I said at the time of it and was by no means alone, trading Cortes when serious bullpen arms were available for nothing but $ was a big mistake. Cashman just hasn’t been treating good starting arms with the respect they warrant. When bringing back Jordan Montgomery may well be your best option—and when you spent all offseason trying to get rid of the guy who is now your #4, you’re in trouble.
The SP was old and thin, with little in the pipeline likely to help this year, and with poor recent track records—and that was before they dealt Cortes.
Best of luck.
This could mean the end of his career. It’s hard to come back from Tommy John in your later 30s. A shame.
@will – It isn’t impossible. Verlander was 37-38 when he went under the knife. He came back at 39 to win the Cy Young award.
He’s 34. Not later 30’s.
He’s currently 34 and 182 days and rates strongly to be 36 when he pitches in anger again, of course.
Still, given it’s his first TJS, he may come back without missing a beat, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he was able to step it up a little.
It’s more likely though that he just comes back as a 36 year old exhibiting the usual decline in all the body parts that weren’t replaced. You’ll probably get a pretty good 36 year old starting pitcher, but he’s unlikely to return to ace form if for no other reason than 36 year old starters rarely have #1 SP stuff, regardless of their past. The last two years he’s already gone from a peak of 13.8 K/9 in 2019 to 9.4 iin 2024 and 9.6 in 2023. .
Condolences from Dodgerland.
He’s 34, not in his later 30s. I wouldn’t write his career off just yet. But you can write off 2025 and at least half of 2026.
Everyone seems to assume he will miss time in 2026. He may be back before the lockout is over.
FYI: MLB’s collective bargaining agreement expires AFTER the 2026 season. 🙂
Push the kids up: put Warren, Rice, and Lombard with Martian, Jazz Wells on the squad, it’ll be 2017 without Astros thievery.
You can hope, but Will Warren’s age at the relevant levels and his peripherals speak to a very marginal starting pitcher.
Turning 26, no success in MLB, his best seasons in the minors still involve a WHIPs right around 1.300, a 1.395 WHIP last season in AAA… This is not someone you want to put into a position to have to step up in 2025.
Have you been seeing Warren pitch at all in Spring Training? I’ll take the over on those peripherals.
Hopefully, he doesn’t play around and gets the surgery now. He could be back by May 2026 if he gets it now
That’s what I say. Players try to hold off on the surgery, knowing they are destined to have it within months, Just get it done, and try to get back as quickly as possible.
“It’s just a little airborne, it’s still good, it’s still good!”
Oh no
.
.
.
.
Anyway…..
1. Maybe we should bring back sticky stuff. First Glasnow, now Cole.
2. Sign Bauer, Hal. You were ok with Chapman twice.
@cheap. Bauer is signed.
The Yankees are screwed.
Oh Oh is right.
Looks like it’s the O’s division to lose now.
Don’t sleep on the Jays or Sox tbh…especially Boston.
tee hee
Say what ???
You laughing at someone needing serious surgery ?
Oh sh$t
Oh dog poop
I was shocked it wasn’t last year
Yeah it was weird how they waited it out. Must’ve been about Soto and the expectation this was their best chance.
This totally sucks. The AL is wide open.
Between Cole and Stanton the Yankees season is already in jeopardy because of 3 elbows.
🙁
Season is elbows deep in poop already.
If only they had kept Michael King or JP Sears
Nightmare scenario.
I’ll trade for him why he is hurt out for year you want Jon Gray?
When it happened last year I was surprised they waited it out. After how Chris Sale happened in ’19, I didn’t think another team would waste multiple seasons falling for the same crap.
This is already 9 guys that will begin the season on the IL (Cole, Gil, Brubaker, Cousins, Effross, Beeter, Loaisiga, LeMahieu and Stanton). And that doesn’t include two Top 30 SP prospects that need TJ surgery in Hampton & Hurd.
Roll with Cabrera, Peraza, Rice and Warren. No need to waste a spot or money on guys like Martinez or Arenado.
I agree Fernando, let the kids play. Without Cole they’ve none chance to win.
brutal
stroman might pitch 140 innings after all
The Pirates home opener is against the Yankees. I was looking forward to a possible Skenes/Cole matchup.
The way things are going Stroman will be opening day starter for the Yanks haha
Call the Phillies…
That’s a shame.
-Jerry Seinfeld
Yankees Fans should be concerned. As a Braves Fan, I cannot even to begin to tell you how many times Max Fried was shut down with Left Forearm tightness, Left Forearm Neuritis, Left Forearm Strain, Left Index Finger Blister, Left Middle Finger Blister and not to mention … Left Hamstring Strain, Right Hamstring Strain, Left Groin Strain, Left Lumbar Spine Muscle Spasm, Concussion and other injuries! I don’t approve of these long term deals for Pitchers. Also, Cole is still due on the rest of his 9yr $324M at $36M for every year he misses! AA did not want to give that much $$ to Fried. His longest contract for a Pitcher was 6yrs / $75M (12.5M AAV) to Spencer Strider and he is going to miss a year or more at a lower cost than Cole.
Adding Cole back in for 4/144m after he opted out, following missing half a season was all too typical of Cashman. It was already an old rotation.
In Cortes he had a competent SP he could have expected 25 starts, 140 innings, above average without being remarkable. It’s not that Cortes is in Cole’s league—of course he isn’t. It’s what you could have expected the difference to be between Cortes and Cole, which after the injury in 2024 was significantly less than we might tend to think.
ZIPS, 2025
Cortes, 152 IP, 3.54 ERA
Cole, 143 IP, 3.64 ERA
Ah–so Cortes was actually projected to have a better 2025. Not a complete surprise given Cole’s injury, and the Yankees somehow decided that
Cole + Williams
was better than
Cortes + $36m
I don’t see how they went with the first line.
Can’t stand the Yankees, but I don’t like seeing anyone get hurt no matter what team they play for.
Season is over. This should be the year they actually SELL to reload for another run.
No Cole, no Gil, Stanton may be out for the year. DJ is toast. We have no starting 3B, no backup catcher, no real leadoff hitter, no viable DH and the bench is terrible. Also relying on a 37 year old coming off 3 down years in a row to hit cleanup. This team mismanaged worse than the Democratic Party.
I’ll bite. Who do you sell and for whom?
Do the Yankees contact the padres about king or cease now
cease or King might be the only SP’s that will keep them alive…would be huge for either one of them
They need one of those pitchers plus Arraez to even think about a Wild Card spot at this point.
No. As the Padres intend on competing.
Looking forward to dining on some spaghetti ohs. Any new baseball news?
Stroman’s Jobu doll is scary powerful.
That said, do the surgery now and be back by the second half of next season, put it off and it’s see you in ’27
Cole should of gotten Tommy John surgery last year. The Yankees did the same thing with Tanaka. Both had diminished results. In the end, Cole’s must of gotten really bad to the point that its his only option. The sooner the better to get the surgery in my opinion, especially since hes getting older and signed for another 6 or 7 years
Four more years not seven.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA THEY HAD THE CHANCE TO LET HIM WALK HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAJAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAGAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA LMFAO
As long as Judge stays healthy, he can carry the lineup to a WCard. Fried and Rodon just have to perform up to the paycheck. AL is also down after being better for many years.
They’ve still got 4 1/2 months to make an adjustment in a wide open division. Who knows who will be available in that time.
He knew he had this coming soon or later and he could have had the surgery at the beginning of last year or at the end of last year and yet, he had to wait until the very last minute. Not so professional.
Schmidt, Warren, Stroman, Carrasco……here are our choices for nos. 3, 4, and 5. . Right now with this devastating news and no changes ….this Yankee team does not get into the post season…add the fact that Stanton very possibly may be going under the knife…and Gil out for 3+ months…Too many IF’s in their scenario..IF Dominguez explodes like his hype says, IF Goldy becomes Goldy again…. .IF Warren pitches like the top notch prospect they refused to trade when they had a chance………..You can NEVER have enough pitching….LAD has a staff of many allstars…so when and if one goes down…..it’s like a multiple choice of top notch pitching !!!! This is and was and is brilliant planning !
No mention of Wells or Bellinger. I’ve seen every spring training game they’ve played and there’s chemistry and capacity afloat. They’d be wise to try and go get Dylan Cease to pair with Max Fried. I’m wondering of Luis Castillo is available. I still think this is a really good team. If an Ace who already missed half of last season on a World Series team doesn’t speak volumes to capacity I dont know what does.
Well.
I know a certain team’s Offseason In Review article draft that is going to need to be revised.
Horrible News. I hate the star getting hurt like this. Or anyone for that matter. With his contract this is worst case scenario. This year wiped and part of next year.
I do believe that Soto was the end of the big contracts. There aren’t a lot of players left anyway, and I think teams are shifting to younger players.
Was drafting when I read the news, ugh, sorry to hear. Forget the second opinion and get it fixed right, Cole. We’ll keep your spot warm. Much luck and speedy recovery, Ace.
Now, time for Hal and Cash to put on their big boy pants and make some deals. Take the lux hit and fix this team.
Salzilla while you are correct, this is like a Tom Cruise movie..take your pick which Mission Impossible? It won’t happen because Hal is not George
Agreed. No dancing around it at this point.
Taijuan Walker hit 94 on the fastball today.
Sounds as if th Dodgers knew what they were doing when they stockpiled pitchers. You just can’t have too many.
Kyle Gibson is an interesting option?
Yankees should have let him opt out.
Why did Cole decide to throw a cutter when he didn’t have to? His use of it skyrocket in 2024 from 2022 and 2023.
Is Skenes going to do the same? Does Skenes need a cutter? Is it worth the risk?
His average fastball velocity has declined from 97.1 mph in 2021 to 94.8 mph in 2024. An older dog needs new tricks.
LHH hit 348 and RHH 296 using the cutter.
I’m not sure who told him to drink the water that time.
Coles sinker was 96.1 and 4 seam 95.9 in 2024. That’s 96 mph avg.
It’s seems like the cutter was responsible for Cole’s injury.
Skenes’ fastball averages 98.8.
A cutter shouldn’t place any more real pressure on an arm than any other fastball. I threw a solid one for years. Any pressure isn’t coming off the elbow. It’s all in the fingers.
I’m foreseen a 3rd place finish.
Yankees fans are bummed. But not nearly
as bummed as Raffy Devers.
Ouch…..Gil, now Cole, and all of a sudden it’s looking like not dealing Stroman was a great deal for them.
Gotta think the Yankees & Padres are discussing a Cease trade.
Ask the Marlins about Sandy. I know, he’s back for TJ, but he should give them around 145 quality innings. And he is cheaper than someone like Cease
They are not gonna just give him away. That will cost Domínguez, Warren, and Jones. The Marlins can do better.
Yeah that’s a huge haul. Rumor was Jones was the starting point on Dylan Cease
Yankees injury news just keeps getting better and better. A Judge hamstring injury would just top things off.
It’s a s#it thing to wish harm on people so casually. Top yourself off.
According to this article, Dbacks GM Mike Hazens plan worked. By holding on to Montgomery until injuries occurred in Spring Training, Hazen can now trade Montgomery to a desperate contender for virtually nothing in return except salary relief. Are you kidding? If that’s all Hazen was looking for, Montgomery would have been traded months ago. That’s just lazy reporting and not going to happen.
Time to call San Diego on Cease.