The Cubs’ Bullpen Outlook

The Cubs entered spring training this year with their bullpen largely set. Offseason trade acquisitions of Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier added a pair of veteran righties — including a closer, Pressly — to the late-inning mix. Chicago signed lefty Caleb Thielbar to a one-year, $2.75MM deal. That trio joined Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Keegan Thompson as virtual locks. All three holdovers pitched very well in 2024, and the latter two are out of minor league options.

There are plenty of candidates for the remaining spots, the bulk of whom are on the 40-man roster already. Righty Julian Merryweather is coming off a poor showing in an injury-marred season that included an April rib fracture and season-ending knee surgery in September. He yielded 11 runs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA), but Merryweather was excellent in 2023, logging a 3.38 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate in 72 innings for the Cubs. He’s also out of minor league options, which surely gives him a leg up on others. (Four scoreless spring innings with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio so far isn’t hurting his cause, either.)

Others on the 40-man roster include righties Nate Pearson, Eli Morgan, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts and Gavin Hollowell. All have at least one minor league option remaining. However, the Cubs have at least one non-roster invitee who’s making a push for a spot: veteran righty Brad Keller.

Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote yesterday that Keller’s average fastball is up more than three miles per hour this spring, sitting 96.3 mph and topping out at 98 mph. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and manager Craig Counsell both spoke highly of Keller’s stuff this spring, with the skipper noting to Lee that Keller has been “more than we expected” so far in camp. Keller’s four runs in seven innings of work don’t stand out, but teams are far more focused on raw stuff, velocity and command when looking at such a small sample. Keller has allowed only seven hits and a walk while punching out six hitters and inducing grounders at a 48% clip so far.

Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports that Keller’s velocity jump and smoother mechanics have not only made him a legitimate consideration to break camp but made it “likely” that the team will add Keller to the roster. The veteran righty has a looming opt-out opportunity in his deal, so the Cubs will either have to select his contract to the big league roster or risk him landing with another team. His minor league pact comes with a $1.5MM base salary, per Mooney, making Keller an affordable addition to the relief corps if the team sees fit.

Adding Keller to the mix, however, comes with complications. Right now, the Cubs have six relievers who cannot be optioned to the minors in the running for bullpen spots: Pressly, Brasier, Thielbar, Miller, Thompson and Merryweather. Hodge has a full slate of minor league options remaining, but coming off a 1.88 ERA and 31.7% strikeout rate in 43 rookie innings, he’s not going anywhere. He’s locked into a seventh spot in the ’pen.

Effectively, unless the Cubs are willing to move on from Merryweather, they only have one bullpen spot available. Plugging Keller into that spot would render their bullpen largely static, barring injury. Keller has more than five years of MLB service (6.062, to be more specific). He can’t be optioned without his consent.

That level of bullpen inflexibility is tough for any team to manage. Early off-days in the season would help, but if the Cubs needed to call up a fresh arm at any point, they’d be left choosing between optioning Hodge or designating someone for assignment. It’s not an ideal setup.  (The Mets faced a similar situation with their bench when weighing whether to re-sign Jose Iglesias, which is largely why he ended up with the Padres.)

The situation would only grow murkier when righty Javier Assad is healed up from an oblique injury. Assad has been ruled out for Opening Day and is presumably IL-bound to begin the year. If he returns in April, however, he’d likely push righty Colin Rea from the fifth starter’s spot to a long relief role. Rea, like many of his teammates on the staff, can’t be optioned. The Cubs could technically option Assad, but he pitched 147 innings of 3.73 ERA ball out of the rotation last year; his strikeout, walk an home run rates all point to some regression, but Assad has still pitched well enough to this point in his career (3.40 ERA in 294 innings) that he can be considered a lock when healthy.

It’s always possible that further injuries sort the situation out organically. Injuries, particularly on the pitching side of things, are an inevitability for any team over the course of a six-week spring training and 162-game season. But with the bulk of the pitching staff healthy right now and minimal flexibility due to their lack of optionable arms, the Cubs seem like they’ll be forced into some decisions on those out-of-options arms sooner than later.