Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s self-imposed deadline for an extension — the first full day of spring training — came and went more than a month ago, with no deal coming to fruition. Guerrero has left the door slightly cracked, indicating that while he doesn’t plan to negotiate any further, he’d be amenable to hearing the Jays out if they presented a new offer. That mindset is all the more notable now, given that Jays CEO Mark Shapiro flatly stated this morning that he expects to eventually agree to an extension with the team’s star first baseman (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). Said Shapiro:
“…I guess my overarching feeling is one of optimism. I think we’re going to sign him. I think we’re going to extend him. The reason I feel that way is because we have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome. Vlad wants to play his whole career as a Toronto Blue Jay. We want him to end his career in a Blue Jays uniform to be a true legacy player for the Toronto Blue Jays. … Could be before free agency, could be during free agency, but I’m optimistic we will sign him.”
Guerrero himself reacted to Shapiro’s comments, per Hazel Mae and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet: “I’ve always felt good about the whole thing. I’m good with that. Just going to keep working very hard and be optimistic, too. Not going to shut the door on them… I’ll be open. But I’m going to leave that to my agents to work with that. If there’s something there, they’re going to continue to work with that. I’m just going to be on the field, focusing on my teammates, on my team, on my game.”
Details surrounding both Guerrero’s asking price and the Blue Jays’ most recent offer have trickled out in the weeks since his deadline passed. Guerrero himself made clear he wasn’t seeking anything close to Juan Soto’s $765MM guarantee with the Mets; he sought under $600MM in guaranteed money over a 14- or 15-year deal. Subsequent reporting from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post, and Davidi shed further light on negotiations. Guerrero reportedly sought a net-present value of $500MM, and while the Jays are said to have offered a figure close to $500MM, deferred money pushed the present-day value down closer to $450MM.
Though that paints a broad picture of where things stand, Shapiro cautioned today (without citing specifically reported numbers) that the gap isn’t quite as straightforward as the ostensible $50MM separating the reported offer and asking price. “That’s an oversimplification based upon only part of the information,” Shapiro said (via MLB.com’s Keegan Mattheson).
Shapiro’s candor and optimistic tone on eventually hammering out a long-term deal come not long after Hector Gomez of the Dominican Republic’s Z101 Sports reported that the Jays are preparing a new offer for Guerrero. While it’s still not clear whether a new offer will be made prior to Opening Day, Shapiro’s comments do lend some credence to the idea that a new proposal could be forthcoming before long.
Despite the fact that he just turned 26 this past Sunday, Guerrero is entering his final season of club control. He’ll earn $28.5MM in 2025 after avoiding arbitration this winter. He’ll be a year older than Soto was when Soto hit the market, but Guerrero is nevertheless poised to reach free agency with a rare blend of youth and premium offensive track record.
Although the first two seasons of Guerrero’s career — his age-20 and age-21 efforts — were “only” a bit above average, he broke out with an MVP-caliber performance in 2021. His 2022-23 production was very strong but not quite up to that 2021 standard. He bounced back to elite levels in 2024. Overall, since that 2021 breakout, Guerrero has turned in a monstrous .293/.370/.517 batting line with 136 home runs in 2783 plate appearances — about 45% better than league average, by measure of wRC+.
Guerrero delivered nearly unrivaled batted-ball and bat speed grades last year while turning in a career-low 13.8% strikeout rate against a 10.3% walk rate that sits as the second-highest mark of his big league tenure. Per Statcast, he ranked in at least the 91st percentile of MLB hitters in barrel rate (91st percentile), bat speed (95th), hard-hit rate (97th), average exit velocity (98th), expected slugging percentage (98th) and expected wOBA (98th). No hitter in MLB had a higher maximum exit velocity or expected batting average.
Guerrero has also been extremely durable, trailing only Marcus Semien in total plate appearances since 2021. In that same span, he’s tied with Yordan Alvarez for the sixth-most homers in MLB and also sits sixth with 405 runs driven in. Guerrero ranks 10th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage and 13th in slugging percentage over the past four years. Defense and baserunning are obvious strikes against him, but Guerrero has been one of MLB’s ten best hitters in the aggregate since Opening Day 2021 — including two seasons where he’s been flat-out elite.
Based on Guerrero’s premium bat-to-ball skills, bat speed and batted-ball metrics, there’s little reason to expect him to markedly decline in the near future. As with any mega-deal, the latter half of the contract is likely to be painful, but that’s generally accepted as the cost of doing business when signing star-caliber players of this nature in the heart of their prime.
You had your chance buddy.
I’m not your buddy guy
I’m not your guy, friend!
I’m not your guy, buddy!
I’m not your friend, pal
Not if the Mets have anything to say about it. He will end up on the Mets, very likely.
If he takes a discount
I really don’t think the Mets and Guerrero are as likely an outcome as everyone thinks. I think if they can avoid even pursuing him in the first place, that would be their preference. And to be honest, the way things are shaping up, if Brett Baty can finally be a steady regular, you’re probably looking at a combination of him and Vientos at the corners next year with Acuna/Mauricio competing for second base. I don’t think the Mets are in dire need of Vlad Guerrero like everyone thinks, nor do I think they’re really interested in handing out another contract of that ilk right now.
He will not be a met unless he agrees to much lower than other teams can give him. You can only have so many mega contracts before your future is handcuffed.
Don’t call me buddy fwiend
Is his name guy?
youtube.com/watch?v=IhyXxLWdO1k
I’m not your buddy, buddy.
I’m your buddy, guy!
Hey friendo, I’m not your buddy kapiche?
Hey I’m talking here
Agree to disagree Mr Shapiro
Thinking and doing are 2 different things.
This is shocking actually. A deal is highly likely to get done now. Vlad Jr with Santander is a great combo.
Well it’s about time!!!
Shocking ? Hardly. What else would you expect him to say ? It sounds more like verbal diarrhea. They have tickets to sell this season too. (Tickets that have taken another annual jump in price ).
He also expects to sign ohtani, soto, & roki
He did?
I hate this front office but trying to sign good players is not a good chirp
Its a good chirp when trying to sign the FA hurts your team (Ohtani/Roki). This just comes down to bad managing/presidenting though, going after the players are fine as long as you dont get conned.
Not having a bad plan b or c is a separate issue.
If you make subsequent plans, your committed to the first plan will not be fulfilling and you’ll end up with your other plans.
I love the phrase “good chirp”.
Somewhere Kyle Tucker is smiling.
Hoyer and Ricketts better be ready to open up the pocketbook. Tucker will be getting his bag.
Tucker will get his, but it won’t be from the Cubs. There’s a reason why they don’t have anyone signed long-term beyond 2025, other than Imanaga and Swanson. Ricketts is waiting to see what happens with the new CBA after the current one ends after the 2025 season.
Actually the CBA expires December 1 2026
@Lloyd- Hoerner, Happ, Suzuki, Tallon, Kelly, and Boyd all are signed through at least 2026. That’s a few more players than just Swanson and Imanaga as you stated.
On top of all those mentioned there are a few still arbitration eligible. Then there’s the over 1/3 of roster under team control that have not even hit arbitration.
Sorry but you absolutely missed the target here with your statement.
Rob – Correct! And it’s a big reason why Roki didn’t want to wait two years before Coming to America.
People think his coming now cost him hundreds of millions ….. it did not.
If it’s going to happen you gotta believe it has to be before the end of spring training.
viking – Why? As long as they make progress it could go a few more months.
Mookie for instance signed his contract in late July.
I hope this is true for Blue Jays fans’ sake. They need something like this to get done.
Doubt it
Sorry, but no one wants to play in Toronto
Lol weird. How do they field a baseball team every year
Well, a major league team is more appealing than non majors
Seems the guy the article is about does, have you heard of him?
Correction: Nobody wants to play in Toronto, except those with character.
Who are all the players with “character” that chose Toronto over an actual comparable offer from other teams/cities ? Name one player to start.
Jays money is just as green as anyone. If the bag is big enough, he’ll sign.
Canadian dollars are generally NOT green. Except for the $20s. Which I think are worth about 40 cents.
you hit the nail on the head. If the Jays are willing to seriously overpay they get the player
*51th state.
@joeypower
Lay off the crayons magadud
white dudes for harris
In your dreams and your toupee orange man, Joeypower
51th? Really… was 3rd grade that difficult for you?
Sorry I prefer not having to think about my kids being shot or potentially going bankrupt if I get sick, thanks for wanting us though the feeling is not mutual. I’ll stick to what you bunch think is socialism you can enjoy your early stag fascism or communism depending on who Donnie gets in bed with.
The libs are that way more than the conservatives. They sensor everything, want ww3 with Russia and if you disagree with them wanting the world’s top priorities to be, being able to identifying as a tree stump and war, they wanna be able to make you vanish. I don’t wanna start with this. The audacity of that socialism/communism statement tho. And let’s not even start with the waste in government that’s currently being eradicated. Give hundreds of billions to Ukraine, but give Hawaiians 750 bucks, lmao. Shweew, on them getting pounded last November.
Could I get that written in a way that doesn’t sound like the ramblings of your brain after watching FOX news non stop for days on end. What does any of that have to do with your country wanting my country?
Love the generalizing here. Liberals want World War 3? Don’t you mean moderate Democrats? Liberals are usually anti-war. Like when the wars broke out after 9/11: It wasn’t conservatives out there protesting Bush.
It’s naive to believe that what Musk is doing is rooting out waste and corruption. If he was then the first people he fired wouldn’t have been the inspector generals, those tasked specifically for finding and removing waste and corruption.
They tell you it’s about saving money, but the real purpose is ideological. Conservatives are against government providing benefits and services to the American people. They’ve been against every entitlement program from Social Security to Medicare to the Affordable Care Act. They’ve tried to roll back those programs unsuccessfully, through legislative and judicial avenues. Now they’re trying to negate them by reducing, and even removing the powers of the government agencies that provide those services.
As to Ukraine, not sending them the things necessary to repulse the Russian invasion is a betrayal. When the Soviet Union fell apart, the Ukrainians agreed to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for a promise from the west that their sovereignty be protected from invasion. Sending them weapons actually benefits the US. The older weapons, which will soon be obsolete are what the Ukrainians get, and the US gets to see how their weapons perform on the battlefield. And last time I looked Hawaii hasn’t been attacked and invaded by Russia.
It’s absurd to say liberals want WW3 with the Russians. Nobody wants that. Seeing Russia, a rights suppressing dictatorship, as our adversary, and standing united with our European allies, all democracies, is a far reach from wanting war.
And BTW it’s censor. A sensor is an entirely different thing. Trump is censoring plenty pf people and organizations right now. He’s banned the Associated Press from the WH because they still call the Gulf of Mexico by it’s internationally recognized correct name. Even tough they now refer to the former Denali as Mt. McKinley. since that isn’t international. His takeover of the Kennedy Center was because he didn’t like the free speech exhibited there, He even disbanded the President’s Committee on the Arts and Humanities, a historically non-partisan group established by Republican president Ronald Reagan on “the fundamental belief that creativity, diversity, and democracy are intrinsically bound.
You’re just a tool being used by Trump. Your post is one of a low-information point of view who’s a victim of Fox News propaganda. Lets see how the mid-term elections go with inflation getting worse, tariffs leading to a recession, no peace yet in the Middle East, nor Ukraine, and a government that can’t function.
Notable players on Toronto’s 40 man roster that willingly signed as a free agent:
Chris Bassitt
Yimi Garcia
Chad Green
Jeff Hoffman
Kevin Gausman
Yariel Rodriguez
Max Scherzer
Alejandro Kirk
Vladimir Guerrero
George Springer
Orelvis Martinez
Anthony Santander
That is a lazy and quite frankly low IQ thought.
I’m lazy and probably dumb but I know O Mart, Vlad, and Kirk didn’t sign as free agents.
International free agents. They could have signed with anybody.
Funny how those aren’t the same thing though.
You could have just left the comment with you’re lazy and most likely dumb. Didn’t need to add the rest.
Vlad could have signed with any team. It’s exactly the same thing.
Nobody with a name like ClevelandSteelEngines can be called lazy.
Except Vlad played under a rookie contract. There are big difference’s between mlb free agents and international free agents. International FA are not on the 40 man roster to start careers and have to go through pre arbitration and 3 years arbitration. Now tell me how they are exactly the same. I have more examples but enough said.
Are you dense rob?
This is about ‘choosing’ to play in Toronto, what does IFAs being on rookie contracts have anything to do with that.
Could Vlad have signed with any team he wanted (that wanted him) the answer is yes. Just stop arguing, you make no sense
Dusty — nope, it’s not the same.
Dusty — aren’t these guys too young to make their own decisions legally?
Holding on to this faux-free agent qualification doesn’t serve the argument for Toronto. It highlights jdgoat needed guys to inflate the list. Which is weak sauce.
Can you explain why they are “faux-free agents” then? You’ve yet to make a rebuttal. That is what is weak sauce here.
The point is they could’ve signed with any team when they were available, and all three chose to sign with the Blue Jays. Which goes against the “nobody wants to play in Toronto” fake narrative.
Faux means imitation or not genuine. Just like how a fake jordan isn’t jordan despite still being shoes. Including them only stands to inflate your list. It’s disingenuous. If you truly were standing on firm ground, you wouldn’t need this. It only hollows what might’ve been a decent point.
I included anybody who willingly signed. Not those who were traded or drafted into the organization. Again, you haven’t defended your point. I think it’s very fair to include them, I don’t know why you don’t see that. They didn’t sign with Toronto with the hopes of being traded.
You’re the one who said free agent. Everyone who knows what’s up knows that refers to major league free agents. You should’ve been more specific before you tried sneaking guys in. It’s annoying to keep moving the goal posts. I only reject that you were being sneaky. If you didn’t do this, I wouldn’t be here.
Going into it more. Your use of ‘willingly’ is a strawman. To sign any contract, it is an expression of a will, so of course any player who comes to Toronto is willing. What the ignorants are arguing is that players don’t ‘want,’ which is “to have a desire to possess or do (something); wish for”.
Their dumb argument is they don’t prefer to go to Toronto. It becomes too subjective and is merely trolling. It may be true there are Americans would prefer to sign elsewhere, but that shouldn’t be an issue with Guerrero as he’s Canadian. But this assumes Guerrero wants to choose a location if the monies are the same.
You are quite literally the one moving the goal posts. Maybe it’s a reading comprehension issue because I can assure you I wasn’t trying to “sneak them in”. It’s pretty obvious what I was referring to. You’re just arguing semantics. I’m sorry I didn’t add the word “international” to free agents as well…
“Moving the goalposts” is a disapproving idiom meaning to change the rules or criteria of a situation or argument after it has started, often to make it harder for someone to succeed or to avoid conceding a point
Your first post to harrisstan started out(I believe this is the order, it’s sometimes hard to see in mlbtr):
“Notable players on Toronto’s 40 man roster that willingly signed as a free agent:”
This is the goal posts. If you include Robert Nelson’s point about the international free agents aren’t on the 40 man, anyone would assume and rightly so it meant major league free agents.
If you were unaware you did that, fine, you are forgiven.
At 16 years old you don’t know how to pick a city to play baseball?
His father was a big leaguer, he was born in Montreal. Maybe your world view is limited but you can’t apply that same standard to others
semantics…. Don’t forgive me for others lack of reading comprehension.
Even if you remove the IFAs from the list it’s still impressive vs most non dodgers, Mets, Yankees teams during that same period.
So despite your best efforts, you haven’t got anywhere near proving JD’s point is wrong.
Wasted all of our time though, so at least you have that
Critical thinking can be fun too
haha you’re so silly dusty we’re having a good time
how many of these players had an equal or even close to equal offer ( years / dollars) from another team ?
none did.
Source? And I know you’re wrong because Gausman did
lol JD this is such a bad argument it’s insane.
Even when players pick only one team they still get overpaid in FA if they are top tier. Ohtani, Soto didn’t take haircuts to sign where they wanted. Get serious guys
Want a good argument? Sit down, take the Jays and every midwestern team. Track their free agent signings over the past ten years. See if you still have an argument or if that argument should change to nobody wants to play in the Midwest.
I do I do!
@harristan I think you re easily jumping to a conclusion based off a few players who all ended up on the same team. You might as well have just said no one wants to play anywhere other than LA. It still would have been presumptuous and false, but with how you formulated that conclusion it would have meant the same.
Yet, they sign top free agents every year.
What qualifies as top free agent? Top 10?
Being traded is a guarantee now.
There is no way master robot would say this without a deal all but being confirmed.
What else is he supposed to say prior to the long season?
He mentions “extension” which means the deal probably has to be done in the next week. (very unlikely he would be extended mid season). Once the season is over, he is a FA and if they sign him in the off season it would not be an extension. If he worded it like “I think Vlad wiill be a Jay for life”, I would take that as a Jays will eventually sign Vlad but may just go the Judge route of waiting until FA and beating the offers.
They can have the framework of an extension and go back and forth on deferrals. Vladdy only needs to sign off after the season begins.
Digdugler: The Judge route of stringing teams along, using them to get the contract he wants with the team he wanted to play for in the first place?
@Digdug You must have missed the parts such as he’d look at any new offer(s) or that he’s gonna leave it to his agent.
Not sure how you come up with the deal probably has to be done in the next week. There is nothing whatsoever that backs any sentiment of an extension needing to be done prior to the start if season. The article actually opens the door to him still being open to looking at any new offers.
If Vlad really wants to be a Blue Jay for life (I know they all say it), and the team comes up with an offer to his liking, I don’t think he will hesitate, even if offered mid season. Still, I wouldn’t offer one. Good projections on the near term, but he wants 14-15 years! The back half will be painful AND SEVEN YEARS LONG! Most contracts aren’t 7 years long.
Yep, Shapiro is just saying what he’s supposed to say.
He didn’t have to say anything.
exactly. verbal diarrhea
The Jays could offer $480MM total USD—below Guerrero’s $500MM ask—with a massive upfront signing bonus (e.g., $150MM paid in 2025) and a lower annual salary (e.g., $22MM/year over 14 years, totaling $308MM + $150MM = $458MM). The AAV for CBT purposes would be $480MM / 14 = ~$34.3MM, fitting Guerrero’s range, but the real kicker is the cash flow. That $150MM bonus, paid immediately, boosts the net-present value closer to $490MM (assuming a 5% discount rate), nearly matching Guerrero’s ask without crossing $500MM. The Jays, meanwhile, keep the AAV below Soto-like thresholds, preserving CBT flexibility for their contention window (2025-2029), where every dollar under the tax line lets them add roster depth.
“Let’s do the opposite thing than the Dodgers,” isn’t a good strategy when it comes to deferrals. Shooting yourself in the foot isn’t finding a hidden inefficiency, just giving yourself a shot-up foot
@labial
For some reason, there is no “Reply” button for you so I have to reply to myself.
Deferrals work for the Dodgers because they’re always in contention, but the Jays’ window is tighter—2025-2026, with Bichette and Gausman gone after those years. My plan—$150MM upfront, $480MM total—keeps the AAV at $34.3MM, fitting under the CBT ($241MM in 2025) with room to add pieces now, when it matters most. Deferring would tie up cash in the 2030s, when the team might not even be good. The big bonus gets Guerrero’s present value near $490MM, close to his $500MM ask, without breaking the bank. It’s not about dodging deferrals—it’s about paying smart for the next two years, not a decade from now.
He should test free agency
“Test free agency”…Personally, I think Vlad should avoid free agency at all costs. Much more athletic and consistent players than him have struggled there. 85% of teams are settled at 1b or won’t invest large money there.
Not to mention, one dimensional (portly)power hitting first basemen simply aren’t valued as they once were. I think free agency could be a very rude awakening for Vlad Guerrero Jr.
@mlb fan
I think Free Agency is pretty terrible for most players. Most of them are losing money by signing these big contracts that are losing a lot of money over the life of the contract. Present day value is significantly lower. They should really be signing with inflation added into the contract. Just look at Ohtani’s contract. The true value is quite low. He sold himself short.
Bauer has it right when he said he’s prefer to sign 1-year deals, as he keeps the net-present day value of the money he’s signed for and not losing it to inflation. Unfortunately, he got greedy and changed his mind on that idea.
Old York: I think he’ll get by.
mlb fan: If Vlad decides to become a FA, the teams that can afford him that need a first baseman are the Mets, Yankees and Phillies. Unless someone like Moreno comes up with an amazing offer and Guerrero wants to play for a somewhat rebuilding team.
@Old York Ohtani in no way sold himself short. He still received $460M in present value guaranteed at time of signing. The deferrals added piece of mind and a ton of free attention and media to Ohtani’s brand. That brand was already the most profitable ever as far as a MLB players marketing value. The contract just added to his mystique and keeps his name ever present(as you just did).
@Avenger
Phillies already moved one of their poor defensive OFs to 1B, Bryce Harper. Bryce may like Vlad, and be open to playing OF, but I haven’t heard the team endorse that. They moved Schwarber to DH, Harper to 1B, and spent all winter trying to move Castellanos. Moving Harper back to OF would not improve the defense, and they would be weaker with Vlad at 1B.
I’m not sure one dimensional power hitting first baseman is how I’d describe him. Defence and baserunning isn’t great, but he’s an all around good hitter. Doesn’t strike out, takes his walks, hits for average, gets on base, and yes, hits the ball extremely hard.
I’m so glad I wasn’t in these boards 20 years ago because these dweebs probably were calling miggy and pujols one dimensional and portly
@Anchors
So he’s a bat only player, you say?
@Dusty
They were bat only players, and portly. HOF worthy for the Bat!
Maybe not bat only, but certainly bat mostly.
I was pushing back on the “one dimensional power hitting first baseman” characterization, which suggests to me a Jake Burger type. His bat is elite across the board, he’s not just a guy who hits bombs regularly and does nothing else.
You could look around here today and find some Angels fans that would probably say worse about that Pujols contract.
Headline made me laugh
Same. I think I’m going to win the lottery. Doesn’t mean it’s ever happening
Actually I chuckled because…
That’s what she said!!!
I appreciate this strategy for it’s uniqueness. Has a player ever gotten a payout like that, ~32% of the contract up front?
I wonder if there’s additional penalties trying to free up $150M from wherever it’s parked or if it’s already “on the books” within the organization.
Wtf do I know I have $200 in my savings
It all depends on what the team has for cash on hand. MLB tweaked the rules after the mega trade between BOS and LAD that saw a few hundred million in contracts change hands under cherington over a decade ago. They also restrict the amount of debt a team can take on at a given time, so, again, if that bonus isn’t on hand in a war chest there’s probably some technicalities.
Wouldn’t surprise me as percentage basis that there were contract with a big chunk up front. Even a 2 year deal for total 20m with a 5m signing bonus is 25% up front. A 500k bonus on a 1 year 1m pact plus incentives is 1/3 up front.
It’s just the magnitude of dollars
$38B company probably doesn’t have to worry about a $150M debt. It would be best for Vladdy as well as the bonus would only be taxed 15% as opposed to 53%.
In what world would it be taxed at 15%?
Also not taxed at 53%. Where are you getting your numbers from
It was changed a few years ago to allow Canadian teams to stay competitive in the free agency market of all sports. Signing bonus is only taxed 15%. Has to do with a one time retirement investment. These are the numbers.
Actually I think it is 54%, not 53.
Tax is prorated based on location of games, the 53% would only be assigned to half their games, the other half would be state taxes + US federal. So the overall tax rate will be much lower than 53.
As for the signing bonus tax, do you have a link or anything? Can’t find it
Why such a fuss over this one dimensional guy. Sure, he is a top 10 hitter by fwar (barely) but he isn’t even a top 30 PLAYER. His value since ’21 is right there with Brandon Nimmo and Will Smith.
Is he “worth” that much money? no. no player is if you take out the marketing but money has to be spent on players still. WAR is extremely misleading when comparing players at different positions because WAR gives big positional boosts. Obviously Will Smith wiill be high WAR as catcher is the worst hitting position and he is a solid hitter. His replacement would therefore be an awful hitter, whoever it is, thus creating more “wins over replacement”. However, positions are not equal and thus WAR is dumb when compared across positions. On a spreadsheet WAR is valuable and its a good tool to evaluate players but unfortunately baseball is not played in Excel.
TLDR. Vlad will be slightly overpaid but your argument is weak. Kevin Kiermaier should have got a $500M deal if we used your logic.
If Will Smith or Kiermaier improve your team more at their position then they should get paid. If a 1b needs to hit .300 with 40 hrs to be average when compared to other 1b then they should be paid less. Market forces at work. Teams that understand this win with lower payrolls like Cleveland and Tampa Bay.
@Digdugler While WAR factors in positional adjustments, I don’t think you quite grasp how the value works. Lots of paradoxes in your comment.
@saj And by fWAR just 75% of Marcus Semien’s value.
I don’t get it either, except for the age part of the fuss. But it’s still too much given his production year to year is all over the place.
He’s a 4-win player who wants to be paid as if he’s only ever been the player he was in 2021 and 2024.
Why the Jays are going along with that fantasy doesn’t make a lot of sense unless they’ve realized they’re in a box and calculated that rather than take the p.r. hit, they’re now willing to pay the extra $10m a year or so it’ll cost over the next 12-15 years, or however long they can stretch out the payments on the total contract under the pretense that Vlad will still be playing in 2037 or 2040.
About the most you can expect is 32-33 wins ending with his age 37 season, but that win total could be a LOT lower due to his weight issues, that he’s a 1Bman who should already be DH’ing, and so on.
Best case on the field is the Jays don’t quite break even and, off, fans keep showing up. Worst case is a swift decline from a weak 2025 season then a decade-long anchor dragging down the team’s chances where the Jays get the worst of all possible worlds.
No offense, but to say Vladimir Guerrero isn’t one of the 30 best players is absolutely asinine.
@AndyMeyer It may be very slightly inexact, but it’s a long way from asinine.
If you’re including pitchers (which “players” does, of course), is Vlad’s 12.0 bWAR since the beginning of the 2022 season* really top 30? It’s got to be close if it’s even in.
Off the top of my head, he’s not particularly close in total value over the last three years to Julio Rodriguez, Shohei, Judge, Bobby Witt, Corey Seager, Semien, Gunnar, Freeman, Betts, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Andres Giminez, Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Cole, Soto, Matt Olson, Austin Riley,… and is on par with the likes of Will Smith, Realmuto, Ketel Marte, Machado, Arenado, Trea Turner, Nimmo, Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, Alcantara even w/ the missing year, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler.
And he’s only 20% more valuable than guys nobody thinks of in conversations about ‘best in the game’ like Yandy Diaz. Corbin Carroll, and Sonny Gray, and 15% more valuable than a JP Crawford or Acuna despite the latter’s zeroed out 2024.
*Three seasons is by far the most common number used by projection and by evaluation systems, and even those that go back a 4th season only value it as 1/4 as significant as the most recent season, and as 11% of the whole when it’s not treated as completely irrelevant.
Fwiw, those latter players are the ones whose value is routinely underappreciated in this context. If I can sign Crawford or Yandy for 20% the cost of Vlad and get 80% of the production but also get it without the long decline phase, my gains are tremendous, and extremely significant in putting together a postseason team.
Also, compare Andres Giminez to Vlad. The former will cost the Jays 5/97m with a 23m option or 2m buyout on the 6th year. Gimme put up 17 bWAR from 2022-2024 compared with Vlad’s 12, but Vlad wants as close to $500m as the Jays are insane enough to go. Who’s crazy, here?
By mentioning Andres Gimenez in the same sentence with Vladimir Guerrero based solely on their bWAR? Wow
And you bring up his weight issues. A tired and lazy narrative. He worked on his conditioning prior to the 2024 season and had a monster campaign. There was hardly anyone better than the numbers he put up on the 2nd half
Top 30 meaning right now heading into 2025, not by what the past says. Right now. If you don’t think he’s top 30 heading into 2025, respectfully, you may be the crazy one here.
@Andy M
What about in 5 years? 8 years? 10 years? Will he be top 30 in any of those, and would you bet on it?
Sorry my guy but I don’t do crystal ball stuff. I’m talking about right now. Let’s keep the focus on that shall we?
he is not one of the top 30. Had 2 good hitting seasons in last 6 years. not even top 50 in WAR in the down seasons .
I’m talking about right now coming out of 2024 and heading into 2025. Not what he’s done but what’s he’s doing now.
wrong. it depends on the year and how value or ” best players” are determined. If you believe in WAR then last year was the 13th best but in league. The real issue is he was not even top 50 in 4 of last 6 seasons.
Enough of the Blue Jays continuing to disrespect their franchise player!
“Disrespect their franchise player”…Please stop that nonsense. Next you’ll be suggesting that billionaires, Silicon Valley elites and Hollywood celebs who aren’t awarded $500M are being “disrespected”.
@mlb fan- the Jays are TOTALLY disrespecting their franchise player. The Rogers Brother can burp $500 million for Vladdy so easily, they print $. If they let him go to free agency, and leave they will never recover truthfully. Not too many players want to play in Canada as it is. Vladdy is a star who is happy there. Jays gotta keep him.
Stop repeating the stupidity spread by US media. Pay Vlad 50 mi a year and exactly WHO do they get rid of because they spend 270 million a year, plus the exchange rate so salaries are in US funds. Were YOU even aware of that. Fact: subtract Vlads 50 mi a season and it leaves 8 Million each for the other 25 players. Any player paid more than that means the other players receive less and they surround Vlad with a triple A team. Actions have repercussions unless Vlad accepted 400 million deferred. That means he makes 10 M per seaon and gives the team an opportunity to sign more expensive players. That isn’t what is seen though and Vlad is greedy and is demanding the full amount for 14 – 15 years which would handicap the team for ten years. When YOU don’t know what you are talking about, stop printing stupidity because wait until the US economy crashes and the Canadian dollar is worth more than the US dollar again. That happened in 2007 and the dollar peaked at 1.10 compared to the US dollar of 1 dollar.
“franchise player”…If you want to take up the social cause of “disrespected” people, I can think of a lot more sympathetic humans than portly athletes seeking half a BILLION dollars for hitting baseballs.
mlb fan: He kind of follows Soto’s profile: a great hitter but deficient on defense. (I know, Soto is consistently a better hitter than Vlad.)
@mlb fan- if you don’t think Vladdy is the Blue Jays franchise player then your not paying attention. If he isn’t the Jays best player, then who is? So you please stop that nonsense! Lol.
“If you don’t think Vladdy..franchise player”…I think he’s a pretty darn good(far from great)baseball hitter who plays for the Toronto Blue Jays. You’re acting like he cured cancer.
Nah he’s way too heavy to cure cancer, but that’s not the point. He is the Blue Jays Franchise Player and needs to be paid like one. Let’s face the fact not too many players are lining up to play in Canada. Vladdy wants to play there and is happy.
@mlb fan-If you just think he’s pretty darn good; your delusional. Enjoy your delusion. Not goin stop you!
I think so too. He’s beloved there and he wants to stay. Unless some team blows him over by 75-100 million more, he’s a Jay for life.
Beloved? Maybe by the casuals. All the long time Jays fans I personally know are indifferent to him . They want their team to win and if he helps they root for him but I don’t know anyone rocking a Vlad jersey. I do know that they are tired of his immaturity and inconsistency. They don’t appreciate his do called deadlines and are too embarrassed to talk about his dance moves and unwillingness or inability to converse in the language spoken in the city he is paid. I have heard some say now it is time to trade him
Why don’t these journalist and radio hosts get the player, their agent, and the GM into 1 room and let them talk it out and see who’s lying? It’s more productive than this “he said, she said” conjecture crap.
Did you read the article? What do you think is going on? Why do you think anyone is lying? Shapiro made a statement about what he thinks is the chance to extend Guerrero. Neither the player, nor his agent, pushed back on that. The only people disputing anything are the numbskull posters here on MLBTR.
Pretty bold move to make this statement. I hope for the Jays franchise it comes to fruition, otherwise this is going to be PR nightmare.
Personally, I want to see it happen, too. Not only for their fans, but also to take him off the market. The Mets with their borderline tampering public mentions of him were one of the more gross stories of this offseason.
Yeah, to come out this openly about signing him and then not signing him would be the final nail in the coffin for the Shapiro/ Atkins regime.
I really dont understand why they cant keep their mouths shut. Sign him and then talk.
What was borderline tampering with the Mets? All the sports buzz was that if he hits free agency Mets would be in on him and if Toronto really were going to put him on the trade block Mets would be a suitor for his services. The same way I’m sure every other major league club in need of a talented first baseman would do. I wouldn’t call that borderline tampering by any means imo.
You certainly don’t want to pay by the pound.
Hilarious.
Rather see him a Jay than future yank.
as a yankee fan i agree with you danray.we dont need another bad contract on the yankees.
no one in NY wants this dirt bag
Wish in one hand, poop in the other!
Shapiro just leading the fans on to keep them coming through the turnstiles. That being said, Vlad Jr ain’t worth more than Ohtani….
Particularly not given only the 2 year age difference at the point they signed / will sign their deals.
The idea that Shapiro said this to keep the fans buying tickets is ridiculous. No one that rises to the position he has, would fail to see how short-sighted that is. Failure to sign Vlad will turn away more fans than a moronic lie soon revealed will gain.
And thanks for that tremendous insight that Guerrero isn’t the player that Ohtani is. Wow, thanks, we would have never known had you not informed us of that fact. Maybe next time let people know water is wet.
@Jean Matrac The problem for the Jays (and for Jays fans) and for much of the $500m the Jays are about to set ablaze, is that Guerrero also hasn’t been the player that Marcus Semien is. Or Julio Rodriguez. Or Judge, Or any of Bobby Witt, Corey Seager, Gunnar, Freeman, Betts, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Andres Giminez, Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Cole, Soto, Matt Olson, or Austin Riley.
Sorry. Water’s wet, and Vlad’s nowhere near the best in the game, though he wants to be paid more than Ohtani. Good luck with that, but moving on could hardly be more obvious.
i agree. plus Vladdy is a jerk too
JackStrawb, Your point about Guerrero’s worth has nothing to do with the post I was responding to, or my point refuting it. What does his worth have to do with the assertion that Shapiro is lying to sell tickets?
And your second point is completely unnecessary, when no one here is saying Guerrero is anywhere close to Ohtani.
@jhj toupee
Have you ever purchased a ticket to see someone the team may extend? I know I have purchased tickets to see someone I knew wouldn’t be returning. The Jays would make more declaring this the farewell season for Vlad.
If Shapiro told the fanbase that they weren’t spending the money to compete, they’d stop going to games. In the end, he’ll say they gave it the good ole college try….
Well, good luck to the Jays. If they get the 2021 and 2024 Vladdie, all fine and dandy. If they get the 2022 and 2023 Vladdie, they’re ENORMOUSLY overpaying. This is strictly an offense play. Guerrero has no defensive or baserunning value. And offense does have a way of coming and going.
25% of the county I live in relies on the food bank to eat
And then there is the disgusting big money side of reality
The haves and have nots
If you took all the money the 1 percent make in 2024 and give it to the 99 percent, how much more would they have?
You missed the point
Never mind
harrisstan,
“…how much more would they have?”
Quite a bit actually. The top 1% control 30.8% of the overall wealth. The top 10% control 67% of that wealth, estimated at 199 trillion. The bottom 50% hold less than 4%.
So the top 1% control 61.3 trillion dollars, and the top 10 control 133.3 trillion dollars. With the population at 340,1 million. equally divided, would amount to more than 585K for every man woman and child.
“income”
Don’t understand why players like him just don’t play where they will enjoy being
The money is irrelevant when you get past a few million unless your mind has been perverted by greed
I always took jobs that I would enjoy, the money was secondary to that
Money can’t buy happiness in a miserable job
And I was quite excellent at what I did so it was not hard to find a job I liked
Holy cope and self fulfilling prophecy
Captain Mike . not only are you quite excellent your modesty is quite impressive as well. What colour is the sky in your world?
Blue
I hope this gets done. He is more valuable to the Blue Jays than he would be for the other 29 teams.
As for the money… Is any athlete or actor worth the money they make? That is a whole different conversation especially considering what health care workers, blue collar workers, fireman, police (bad apples in ever job so settle down), and boots on the ground military.make.
P.S> Can someone tell Johnny Ask 5 that Vladdy belongs in the 3 hole not the 2 hole, where his hitting has gotten worse since moving him there. Also tell him don’t wait X number of weeks to do this like he has the last two years.
“More valuable to Blue Jays”…I whole heartedly agree. I could see at least 27 teams hanging up the phone or laughing in his face with that ridiculous ask.
That price range should always be reserved for athletic, consistent, multi dimensional players. I think the Jays are probably the only team who’d even consider these terms.
They’re worth what consumers will spend on tickets, concessions, merch, and streaming services. Same for movies. The blue collar populace can’t do what these innate .01%-ers can do. That includes the Joey Gallos and Kit Harringtons of their respective field of work.
YankeeBleacherCreature I understand and agree with what you are saying. However it is a whole other conversation of what they should be paid based on their “worth” .in terms of value to society compared to what we pay the others I listed.
Childlike
Speaking of which, why do people ‘thank’ the foot soldiers of a brutal, plutocratic empire for their service?
I still think Vlad ends up with the Mets next year!
“Ends up with the Mets”…Word on the street is that New York hot dog king Joey Chestnut is starting a go-fund me account to ensure a non New York team acquires Vlad Guerrero Jr in free agency.
If Vlad comes to New York he’s sure to best Chestnut in the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest. Joey will surely do all he can do to ensure that that doesn’t happen.
@slider32 Hard to think there’s a real chance of that, unless Cohen once again overrules Stearns, at which point I’d half expect Stearns to walk.
Left to his own devices Stearns didn’t bring back the reigning 2016 NL HR champ Chris Carter with 41 for a paltry 1/$8.1m—and he was right.
He’s not signing a DH pretending to play 1B for $450 million or whatever it’s going to be, a DH who will grow old, decline, and leave baseball at the same pace as Soto, also a DH over that stretch if he’s even an OFer now. Without Cohen interfering he wouldn’t have signed tween idol Alonso for $30m.
Misleading statement here as we know why Chris Carter was signed to a 1-year deal and it goes well beyond having the most homeruns the year before.
Mark, Buddy. Don’t. Do. It.
Let Guerrero walk. Defensively and weight challenged players do not age well. We have seen this story play out before. From 31-32 on is going to be ugly.
Take that $45 million AAV and invest in a player or two with more than just hit and power tools.
So he’s willing to go to $500 million or more?
He doesn’t wanna be in Toronto.
Like the manager in Mr. Baseball said, “it’s going to cost you.”
Shapiro and Atkins are bent over a barrel waiting for “Big Daddy” Vladdy…
Have fun overpaying for an inconsistent overweight 1B. The easiest position to fill on the bat side. They would be smart to let him walk to get signed by one of the perennial chump teams like the angels or rockies.
the angels front office and ownership,is definently,incompetent enough to give 500 mil.lol.
He doesn’t deserve anything close to 500. With his Prince Fielder body bound to breakdown halfway through any deal, those last years will be brutal for whoever signs this deal.
Over the last 3 seasons Vlad’s been very, very, very slightly better than Devers. For the same age range, 27-36, the Red Sox are paying Devers 10/314m, and they’re not happy about it.
How happy are the Jays going to be tacking another $150 million onto Devers’ deal, and for a guy who doesn’t even have an intermediate position in 1B to move to before he inevitably ends up at DH?
how is vlad jr different than devers really?
100% i was about to post this exact point
@zarbend Great minds, comrade. Gets really interesting when we put aside hype and fandom and really look at the player under discussion.
Take this obvious comp with the new Jay: Andres Giminez has been worth 16.4 bWAR from 2022-2024. Vlad? 12.0 bWAR. What’s the next five years of Giminez going to cost the Jays? 5/97m, whereas Vlad wants 12/500m.
Madness.
Obviously. All the teams that would give him 500m are already set at first base.
Or are simply too intelligent in the first place to give a bad defensive 1Bman $500m.
He literally won the gold glove at his position 2 seasons ago. How is that a bad defensive 1b?
I think you should have been fired months ago ♂️
450 present value doesn’t seem too off to me given the length of the deal. He hasn’t been a full time defender already in his young career DHing often so that will only increase in the future as he ages. A huge investment like this you gotta recall other guys with questionable bodies like Prince Fielder. He was extremely durable until he wasn’t.
He qualified at 121 games @ 1b and 12 @ 3b last year, only 29 at DH. 121 @ 1b and 34 @ DH the prior season, and 128 @1b – 1 @ 3b – 32 @ DH the prior season. Seems like a full time defender to me with some scattered part time DHing. Not a Jays fan, so not 100% but didn’t he also win a GG in one of those seasons too? Not a part time defender IMO. 75%+ of his starts he is on the field (not sure how many gp account for both DH and 1B) and just now entering his prime (turned 26 earlier this week)… Provided health, he likely has close to 10 years of said top 5-10 production going forward. I would say 450M now is fair value with how contracts are going. Maybe even a little low with the games jumps the past 2-3 years. Jays should jump on 500M and hope nothing much happens in the next CBA that might affect the terms.
Fielder was playing 160 games at 1B in the NL. He looked durable despite his weight. It would be right for Toronto to be skeptical of his longevity given he wants a contract that extends to his age 38-40+ seasons. You have to assume those last heads are basically deferred money at some point. I don’t think anyone expects him to be playing even as a full time DH by then.
The thing is would going after someone like Kyle Tucker, if the Cubs don’t extend him, be a better bet long term? Guerrero is home grown so fans obviously want him to stay, I’m just not convinced he’s the right fit for the price.
@wreckage That’s wildly off. Statcast has him in the bottom 2 percentile by OAA. He’s dead last in baserunning. He’s 25 and already slow. If he’s a top 30 player in MLB he’s barely top 30. He’s Brandon Nimmo and Will Smith, as someone pointed out, nowhere near guys like Giminez and Ramirez and Semien.
$500m is not just idiotic, it’s obviously idiotic. It’s an offense against reason as is your ridiculous assertion that a 25 year old is likely to have ‘close to 10 years’ of peak performance.
You have to be trolling. Have to be. For your sake, anyway, I hope so.
Management expecting correction. When the correct move is to offer an extra 2-3 mil per year. Don’t play chicken with your brand.
@Spaced-Cowboy Yes. If it was 2-3m per year above what Vlad’s actually, projectably worth, it’s a straightforward agreement.
But say he’s set on getting 12/$480m from the Jays, which seems to be the case. He’s a 4 win player turning 27 the first year of the deal, with a body type and defensive skills that do not suggest he’ll age well. That’s much more a $200m player, not a guy worth 240% of $200m. You could even go to 10/$250m, not love it, but figure it’s valid given the off-the-field value of the player and the cost of NOT bringing him back. But that’s already a stretch.
The Jays have to consider the very real likelihood he’ll give them around 13-15 wins from age 27 to 31, then won’t be worth more than a bench spot, if that. No one’s coming out for the team or buying its merch when Vlad’s putting up .200/290/360 while costing the team $40m a year for the last 5-7 years of his contract.
This isn’t a case where a wrong evaluation means things get a little tight for a couple of years. This could mean the Jays are no longer capable of staying in the fight for the better part of a decade. Only the Dodgers and the Mets, really, are capable of eating $40m a year and still going for it.
Only to trade him in 2 years when he’s underperforming and they are finishing last in the division.
I’d rather have 50 players for the next 5 years
my opinion on signing Vlad jr to a decade long contract is I wouldn’t do it but not for fear of performance decline. I wouldn’t sign him as the face of my franchise because I do not believe he is worthy of it. Throughout his up and down career he has shown serious immaturity and acted like the spoiled brat he is . His childish comments about the Yankees are only one example. Now he puts a gun to the head of the organization he says “he loves” and ” wants to retire with” or will leave for the highest bidder. Which is it?
Vlad had been silver spoon fed since birth and is used to getting his way. He seems toxic and really not that bright. How can you have a job in primarily english speaking nation for this long and not speak any of the language? He is either too dumb to learn or unwilling to do so. The face of your franchise? no thanks
More of this front office announcing what they will do instead of just doing it. As an Os I’d be happy to see them give him a 15 year deal that will hinder them for the last 10 years….
the contract he wants would be terrible for the blue jays, if he doesn’t agree to fewer years then don’t sign him
It’s hard to believe anything coming out of the Lousy GM shapiro’s mouth….
Vladdy is lazy and brutal on the base paths…Not worth what he thinks he is. Some team will pay him too much though…
Vlad,….. playing more for the name on the back of his jersey, than the name on the front of his jersey.
Picture Vlad in 10 years… He probably has 5 years of elite offense in him. Then you have 9 more years of a deteriorating player who was never good defensively.
So his Gold Glove from 22 is because he was bad defensively?
Rather dangerous to come out and say something like this to drive ticket sales that are down. That would be deceptive to the fanbase.
Vlad to the Jays could be what Tony Gwynn was to San Diego, Cal Ripken to Baltimore, Ernie Banks was to the Cubs, you get the message. If they sign him to 15 years they would need 8-9 really good to great years, and expect him to be what Miggy was the last 6 years with Detroit. Vlad would be Mr Blue Jay, and hopefully be an ambassador for the team.
This signing could also help attract more players from DR, a hotbed for the Jays in the 1980s.
Is “think” the same as “are showing interest in”?
“No hitter in MLB had a higher maximum exit velocity or expected batting average.”
Nitpicking here… but four players had a higher max exit velo than Vlad last year: Cruz, Stanton, Ohtani, and Contreras.
Cohen on Guerrero Jr.: “We’re going to sign him.”
This means nothing coming from Shapiro, he thinks every player wants to play on the Blue Jays. However, they’ve struck out on almost every offer in the past years, leading me to think they’re willing to go all out. Without Vladdy, all they have is Bo, which is hardly a team.
Better sign him now because they won’t get him back in free agency.