The Nationals have opted for another risk-averse offseason. At the end of last season, Washington general manager Mike Rizzo teased the possibility for an impact lineup addition.
“We need a couple of bats that can hit in the middle of the lineup and take the onus off some of these good young core players and assist them in the run creation of our offense. We have the core players to be middle-of-the-lineup hitters,” Rizzo told MLB.com’s Bill Ladson. That provided some hope that the Nats would make a big free agent push, but that has not come to be.
Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell have been Washington’s biggest lineup acquisitions. Lowe, whom the Nats acquired from Texas for reliever Robert Garcia, has been a well above-average hitter in three consecutive seasons. He’s a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. A reunion with Bell, who has been one of the game’s streakiest hitters throughout his career, on a $6MM free agent deal is less exciting.
Lowe, who will make between $10.3MM and $11.1MM in his penultimate arbitration season, has been Washington’s costliest acquisition for 2025. They took a $9MM flier on Michael Soroka and brought back Trevor Williams for two years and $14MM. They’ve made minimal commitments to Shinnosuke Ogasawara ($3.5MM over two years), Jorge López ($3MM) and Amed Rosario ($2MM). Williams and Ogasawara are the only players to whom they’ve committed multiple years. The latter’s contract pays him like a seventh or eighth starter. Lowe is under arbitration control for another season that could cost upwards of $15MM, but the Nationals could trade or non-tender him if they’re not keen on that price.
It wasn’t the kind of headline-grabbing offseason that suggests the front office felt they were a move or two away from pushing the top three teams in the NL East. They remain the fourth-best team in the division on paper. Lowe could be a legitimate 2-3 win upgrade over last year’s collection of first basemen, who hit just .241/.310/.376. Beyond that, they’re mostly relying on internal improvements.
The Nationals dramatically cut spending during their rebuild. The Lerner family considered selling the franchise and didn’t want to saddle potential buyers with long-term deals. While they’re no longer actively exploring the sale possibility, maybe they haven’t given Rizzo and his front office leeway to make a significant splash.
If that’s the case, the front office’s actions have been understandable if largely unexciting. This roster still seems to be a year away from viable playoff contention. Pursuits of even upper middle tier free agents like Anthony Santander or Sean Manaea were unlikely to change that. They were never going to seriously threaten the Mets, Yankees, etc. on Juan Soto. A top-of-the-rotation arm like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried might have provided the ceiling boost needed in the rotation, but that requires an ownership group willing to approve a $200MM+ free agent deal.
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Patience is wise with 3 strong division rivals. Assess what youth looks like the real deal and what perhaps remains a weakness. Many highly touted prospects flop regardless of organization.
They should have a good idea in another year who to target in FA or take on in trade with $….and as important may learn they have solutions in-house in areas as a pleasant surprise.
I agree. I don’t think they are there yet. Their top prospects are just getting their feet wet, not really making an impact yet. If one or both of Crews/Wood break out this year, would be nice to extend one and get a solid long term plan then sign a huge bat next ear.
I like what they did. If those young players do break out they will have a solid lineup with Lowe Bell. If they don’t break out they didn’t break the bank and have 2 trade chips.
I agree the timing is bad, with 3 championship contenders in their division, but this will be six losing seasons in a row for the 2019 champs. A splashy FA signing that improves the team (think Jayson Werth) would have reinvigorated the fan base. Even if they weren’t really competitive again.
I hate to say this but I feel like the nats are going to be another version of the orioles where once it’s time to spend they lock up and decide to do nothing
If they were going to spend wouldn’t they have signed bregman or Alonso or burnes? I hope I’m wrong and they’re just saving up for Kyle Tucker or vladdy
It’s not like they have Westburg, Holliday, Rutschman ,Mayo, and refuse to spend. If Wood, Crews, Abrams,Garcia establish themselves in 2025 in a way comparable to those Orioles, Nats GM and owners must perform better.
Alonso Burnes would have been awful contracts for them. Bregman trending that way as well.
Lowe > Alonso
That wasn’t the case the last time the Nats were in contention, but maybe the Lerners have changed their tune.
They believe in Brady House at third, that’s why the were out on Bregman. Lowe probably has about the same WAR as Alonso this year for wayyy less money.
I hope they sign Fat Boy Jr next year so no other team has to be saddled with that contract.
Make like the Braves and lock up as many of those young stars as possible. Two years from now the savings and cost certainty from those extensions and the dead money coming off the books will put the Nats in prime position to be a real destination team for free agents.
The Braves are extraordinarily good at properly evaluating their own players.. I’m a Nats fan, and even I think Mike Rizzo’s not nearly as good at that.
He gave Keibert Ruiz an 8-year $50 million contract in 2023. Ruiz is *terrible* defensively, and has never shown a good enough bat to live with his defensive shortcomings. (He’s worse at pitch framing than many backup MLB catchers!)
If that wasn’t enough, Rizzo held on to OF Lane Thomas a year too long, and didn’t trade closer Kyle Finnegan at the deadline last year. Admittedly, the players he got from Cleveland for Thomas are pretty good. But Thomas was actually performing better and at the height of his value the previous season.
Rizzo’s bigger mistake was keeping closer Kyle Finnegan at the deadline last year, He knew that Finnegan would be due for a big raise in arbitration. The fact that he non-tendered him rather than keeping him and simply paying the bigger salary *after* he decided not to trade him at the deadline is inexplicable. The offers may not have been great, but they would be better than nothing, which is what the Nats will get if Finnegan signs elsewhere..
I also eagerly wished for a Thomas and Finnegan trade. What I heard is Rizzo’s asking price is too much for a trade to happen. I would just simply go with the best offer if I were him. But that happens in negotiations. Finnegan very likely was not that popular already, and a CL not a priority trade target very likely would end up not traded, especially when every other CL got traded in a glimpse of eyes by the deadline.
I’ve been a Nats fan since they moved to DC, and I’m still not completely sure why the Nats have done, or haven’t done, things in the past year or so..Ultimately, I *think* the Nats lack of spending is both analytically driven and about the TV money, but still not positive of that.
1, The Nats make about $60 mil a year from MASN. Their ownership percentage in the network’s going to go up, but the O’s will always own a majority stake. However, I don’t think the revenue’s going to go up much, if any, because RSN’s are increasingly dead. The Nats will never be able to spend like the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees or Cubs unless they have an owner like Ted Lerner, who broke the bank because he wanted to win and knew he didn’t have 30-40 years left on the planet to see it happen.
2. The Lerners aren’t going to sell this team unless they do so at a price that indicates they simply want out. Caps/Wizards owner Ted Leonsis probably came the closest to purchasing the team. He reportedly backed out when negotiations with the Orioles over the future of MASN failed.
Rubenstein is a better and more reasonable owner than the Angelos family, but he’s not stupid. Officials in the O’s front office have admitted they’re afraid they wouldn’t be able to sell local brodcast rights for anywhere near the $60 mil both teams get now, without the DC advertising market, which they’ve got now because of MASN. Competing in the AL East is hard enough. Damaging themselves financially would make competing even tougher.
3. The Lerners probably haven’t given Rizzo the green light to spend significant money.
Stephen Strasburg was supposed to retire several months before it actually happened. Mark Lerner thought he had a deal done with Strasburg’s agent to the point where, according to the local media here, the Nats had planned a retirement ceremony at Nats Park. The ceremony was hastily called off, reportedly because one of the limited partners in the family blindsided Mark Lerner by objecting to the settlement. That individual reportedly wanted Strasburg to agree to less money than he was contractully owed. Of course that idea was a non-starter. It took Mark Lerner several months to get that issue resolved within his own family.
I don’t think Mark Lener is anything like his Dad. He’s not going to overspend to bring a World Series to DC.. That said, I don’t think he’s the only person in ownership who may be keeping the Nats from spending more.
3. Two or three years ago, the Nats revamped their front office. Mike Rizzo was pretty much the only person who stayed in the same job. People who are *much* more into analytics replaced most of Rizzo’s lieutenants, who were much more old-school scouting types like he is. Analytics has changed how teams value many free agents, their own players, and draft picks.
IMO the decline in activity/money in the FA market (except for top tier guys like Soto and Ohtani) sn’t just about TV money. It’s also about analytics and the devaluing of mid-tier free agents. Having a QO attached makes these players even less attractive. Irrespective of a QO, IMO Bregman and Alonso’s markets developed because, according to the analytics, signing those two to a long term contract for the money they reportedly want[ed] is a really bad investment.
Flaherty *might* have been an exception, although given the ballpark he pitched in last year, I’m not so sure about that.
4. The Nats farm system is better than some people think it is.
Rizzo hedged his bet on House with his acquisition of Cayden Wallace from the Royals for Hunter Harvey. That trade was a straight up heist. Wallace is 23 and played at AA last year. He could be in DC in 2025.
RHP Travis Sykora (#2 Nats prospect) and Jarlin Susana (#4) have developed well and are expected to contribute to the big club at least by sometime in 2026. Cade Cavalli will allegedly be back this year. His complete absence the entire year last year was a bit odd, so who knows what they’ll get out of him. At worst, IMO he’s a potential closer.
They also have the #1 pick in the upcoming draft, which might be 3B Ethan Holliday. When you don’t have Dodger/Mets/Yankees money, signing Bregman and forgoing cheaper internal options before you’re sure they’re not ging to make it is financial malpractice.
If House doesn’t make it at 3B there are already rumblings he could be moved to 1B. If he doesn’t become a long term answer at either position (or if Wallce isnt’ a long term answer) the Nats have already tried to plan for that by moving 2023 2nd round pick 3B Yohandy Morales to 1B.
5. The Ruiz contract was a mistake, and IMO Rizzo knows it. He’s not about to repeat that mistake by giving a young player a long term deal before he needs to do so.
Ruiz is simply awful defensively, and he’s never shown he’s got a good enough bat to live with his defensive shortcomings. IMO, Rizzo tried to fix that problem with the acquisition of Riley Adams a couple years ago. Unfortunately, he’s just as bad defensively as Ruiz, and worse offensively. The hope among Nats fans like me is ABS would come to MLB and help out a poor pitch framer like Ruiz. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen for a while yet.
I think the NL East is the best division in baseball so the Nats probably won’t finish better than fourth, but I won’t be surprised if they win 80 or more games. They did really great on the Soto trade… this kid Susana was like the fourth-best piece they got back and he looks like he could be a solid starter or a dominant closer. The future looks very bright in DC (on the baseball field at least, lol).
Rizzo got a great return for soto. I think aj should have been fired for giving up so much for a player that would not stay until the end of his contract. Rizzo has made mistakes that I have read about like keeping Finnegan and Thomas too long and getting nothing for Finnegan. Ruiz’s contract was another bad move. I don’t think cj is an everyday shortstop or leadoff hitter. Should be playing third or second and hit further down the lineup. Would be surprised if house becomes an everyday player. Same goes with Hassell. Would be nice to get a deal for naming the park.