The Tigers were linked to Alex Bregman for much of the offseason, and reports indicated that they were one of the finalists for the infielder’s services before Bregman signed a three-year, $120MM deal with the Red Sox earlier this week. It would appear that Detroit might have been the top bidder in terms of pure dollars — Bregman was offered a six-year, $171.5MM contract that included an opt-out clause after the 2026 season, but he instead took the shorter-term deal from Boston that includes opt-outs after both the 2025 and 2026 campaigns.
Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris told reporters (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that he wasn’t disappointed by Bregman’s decision to head to Boston. “We made a compelling offer to Alex Bregman but he chose to sign somewhere else. That’s fine. We knew that was a possibility throughout the process, and we planned for that outcome,” Harris said.
The fact that the Tigers made such a push for Bregman was itself notable, as it represented the first time since Harris was hired in September 2022 that Detroit truly appeared willing to stretch the budget on a long-term free agent commitment. Jack Flaherty (whose deal contains a player option for 2026) and Kenta Maeda are the only free agents to receive even a two-year contract during Harris’ relatively brief tenure. Harris praised team owner Chris Illitch for giving “us the flexibility to chase some key free agents,” so the strategy is apparently less about money than it is about Harris’ oft-stated desire to build primarily around the Tigers’ young core.
“We don’t want to be that organization that is desperate to sign a specific free agent or hinging on our current plan or our future plans on a certain free agent,” Harris said. “We have to be dependent on the young talent we’re acquiring and developing….I will say we feel like what we did this offseason, we made the moves we needed to make. We supplemented this young, emerging group with guys who can make the team better without blocking our young players.”
“It didn’t make sense for us, before or after Alex, to pivot to someone who would just take our money. In recent winters, we’ve seen teams continuing to pivot until someone takes their money. It may win a press release, but it may not actually push your organization forward. We were very conscious of that throughout the winter and we were very targeted about the players we wanted to add to this group.”
Beyond the reunion with Flaherty, the Tigers also signed Alex Cobb to further bolster the rotation, and added veteran relievers Tommy Kahnle and John Brebbia on one-year deals. On the position-player side, Gleyber Torres was signed to a one-year, $14MM contract to step in as the new everyday second baseman, pushing Colt Keith into a first base role.
The right-handed hitting Torres also gives Detroit a bit more balance within a lineup that still pretty heavy with left-handed bats. Acquiring a marquee righty-swinger like Bregman would have further helped with that balance and naturally boosted the offense as a whole, and Harris hasn’t closed the door on still addressing this need.
“There hasn’t been a ton of options for us to add a second right-handed bat,” the PBO said. “We don’t think there is going to be one coming through free agency. We’re going to explore trade options but we feel really good about the group we have, and we think it is a group that’s going to continue to get better.”
With this internal focus in mind, Harris cited Jace Jung, Matt Vierling, and Andy Ibanez as the chief in-house candidates for third base work. “It’s going to be a competition in Spring Training” to decide exactly how the playing time might be divvied up, and Harris noted that “we have a really talented manager [A.J. Hinch] who is going to find the right matchup for those guys.”
Good for Detroit for making the solid effort. Glad to see the team is focused and has the funding to pursue top free agents.
Bummed he did not sign with Detroit, but that contract is crazy high. Hoping it weight RS down for future acquisitions.
I hope for Detroit fans the offer had massive deferred $ or it was just for marketing. They had to have learned from Baez right? Not that Bregman is that level of player going forward.
O’s – Agreed!
And I like this part, which seems to be a direct shot at the Red Sox: “It didn’t make sense for us, before or after Alex, to pivot to someone who would just take our money. In recent winters, we’ve seen teams continuing to pivot until someone takes their money. It may win a press release, but it may not actually push your organization forward.”
This is exactly what the Red Sox did to generate headlines and attempt to fuel sluggish ticket sales.
They were supposedly pursuing everyone …. Soto, Snell, Fried, Teo, Roki, Burnes, the list goes on and on. In the end they did exactly what i said they would do, wait for the last available name free agent to drop their price just like picking through a buffet table after everyone else has already had their food of choice.
If the deal turns out to be $32M for one year, that’s a reasonable contract.
But the signing will forever be remembered for it’s repercussions ….. does it mean the end of Grissom’s tenure in Boston? Does it mean the end of Devers at 3B? Does it mean Campbell stays in the minors longer than needed? Does it mean the trading of Casas or Yoshida?
All to be determined ….
These questions can be answered right now for 2025:
1. Does it mean the end of Grissom’s tenure in Boston?
Answer: No. Grissom still has a minor league option and will likely start the season in AAA unless he beats out Romy Gonzalez for a roster spot.
2. Does it mean the end of Devers at 3rd base?
Answer: No. Bregman was signed to play 2nd (and backup 3rd, which was needed). There’s no other opening for Devers at the moment and he’s adamant that he’s playing 3rd. Pissing off the franchise cornerstone on what may be a 1 year rental isn’t good for the clubhouse.
3. Does it mean Campbell in the minors longer than needed?
Answer: Possibly yes. Campbell had a clear path to a roster spot if he could beat out Grissom and that’s now gone. But a single injury fixes this and keeping a player with minimal AAA experience, who isn’t on the 40-man, down an extra year doesn’t hurt the Red Sox unless he’s already better than Bregman.
4. Does it mean the trading of Casas or Yoshida?
Answer: No. Aside from Romy/Wong/Refsnyder the Red Sox don’t have another 1st base option so trading Casas makes no sense currently. Yoshida is set to play DH and LF (once arm is fully recovered), which is needed, as the team won’t want Rafaela batting vs all tough RHPs AND there isn’t a clear DH to replace him currently.
Two Caveats:
1. If/when there’s an injury, each of the above answers pushes even further in the direction of ‘no’.
2. If the young guys are destroying AAA at the trade deadline, and the Red Sox need pitching, they could move a player like Yoshida if there’s a demand.
3. If Bregman decides to stay for 2026, the above answers will push toward yes. But those are 2026 issues.
My big question:
If Bregman stays for 2026, does that takes them out of the bidding for VGJ? This contract is perfect if he opts out, but losing out on VGJ (who would like to play with Devers) for a short-ish term signing, would be rough.
@WCSoxFan – reasonable analysis IMO. Only thing I think to change is that I expect VGJ to sign with the Dodgers or Yankees next season, most likely the Dodgers to replace Muncy at 3B for a couple seasons and then move to 1B when the Freeman contract ends.
@die defunctorum
Thanks. I think the Red Sox and Mets are the current front runners. Both are big markets with lots of money and Devers/Soto are his buddies who he wants to play with (given their age, country and social media posts). Having VGJ split time at 3rd/1st/DH with Devers & Casas each getting some DH time would keep all of them healthy while not pissing off Devers. This is my dream scenario.
Dodgers could certainly blow everyone away with cash, but I don’t see any advantage they would have in this case (unlike some of their more recent big signings).
There have been two things that VGJ has made very clear:
1. He sees himself as a 3rd baseman.
2. He’s never ever ever playing for the Yankees. There’s some type of blood feud involving his dad. I don’t know where it came from or whether it can be resolved with hundreds of millions of dollars, but the Yankees have to be seen as a longshot at this point (in my mind).
As a RS fan, I like this. The Detroit offer is insanely higher than the RS offer, unless Bregman thinks he is going to return to an AS level performance.
Insanely higher? Uh no. Red Sox offered more annually. Tigers offered more per year. My guess is Bregman thinks Fenway will boost his stats like it does other righty hitters and he will end up opting out.
I think that’s exactly it, @BITA – he feels like hitting those doubles off the green wall will lead to a Monster season & he will opt out. See what I did there with Monster? Don’t pass Go, collect that 40M & head to wherever.
This is exactly his plan. His career OPS in Fenway is higher than any other MLB stadium. He’s assuming his slow start depressed his market and expects to fix that in Fenway.
Yep, OPS of 1.240 in 98 ABs in Fenway. Small sample, but he also reunites with Alex Cora. I think he wanted Boston all along.
Red Sox offered more annually.
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The Detroit offer was ~ $80M/3 higher. At his age, that’s an awful lot.
No it wasn’t that much higher. You are accounting for deferrals and ignoring the fact that the Tigers offer could have had them as well.
Tiger’s offer had zero deferred money & only one opt out after 2 years but he wanted 3 opt outs after yr 1 , 2, 3 & Harris wasn’t going to do it
So 51 million isn’t insanely higher? Forget about the years for a moment & think about in 4 years, is he going to get 51 more million at age 33/34? Uh…no…he might get 20/30 more so he lost 20 to 30 million guaranteed money. I guess in a world of 120 million contracts, suddenly losing 51 million isn’t “insanely” higher except the fact that it is insanely higher.
You don’t think Bregman can get 3 years 51 million 3 years from now? Of course he can. And you have no idea if there were deferrals in the Tigers offer.
You don’t think Bregman can get 3 years 51 million 3 years from now?
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If that was the real number. But all we know right now is that the difference between what the Tigers offered him, and the NPV of what they RS are giving him, is $80M/3.
And what’s the upside? If he earns $31.7M this year, and then opts out, the margin on that is $140M/5. I doubt he would get that. I’d guess he needs to revert back to a 4.5+ WAR.
We don’t know that because you are assuming there were no deferrals in the Tigers offer.
If he opts out its because he has a great season and yes he probably gets more than 5 years 140. What did Chapman just sign for? Worked for him.
Different types of contracts. If I had to use the word “insane” to describe one, it actually would be on the Red Sox side. $40MM a year for a player coming off a down year, and then adding in opt outs putting any downside on the Red Sox side with a Judegian-level AAV? That aside, I think it’s a good deal for them because he will get inflated stats from Fenway, which means it’s a good deal for him. No downside at $40MM, all upside with a big year. He wants to do the Beltre dance.
What’s clear is he only wanted to go to Fenway and Boras waited it out until the AAV reached the right level. Detroit has a good team, but the park is a bad match for a player who wants to hit free agency again next year.
Judegian-level AAV?
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It is $31.7M v $40M, and 3 years v 9 years.
Comerica Park was the WORST options of the four options. Fenway was the best after the Astros, Cubs, Detroit was 4th so really wasn’t an option. Boras kept using the deal to bump up the deal.it worked.
I think the ballpark was the deciding factor. That’ll be a tough decision to opt out or not because if he does, he can’t go back to Boston and say “I’ll stay. The offers weren’t the pay raise I thought they’d be”. And he’s not touching 30-40 per come 2028. He’ll be cooked by then. I think he’ll miss around a month on the IL, have a good year when healthy and stay in Boston for the 3 years. Then it’ll be 1, maybe a 2nd option year contracts after that.
Really? The ballpark was the deciding factor? If that was the case, why is Boston paying more per year than the Detroit offer? He would have signed for less per year if it was the ballpark. Nah, it was Money. Plain and Simple. He would have signed in Seattle for $41mm per. This is a Boras save face move. Take the highest $ per year and hope subsequent contracts gets him to the level Boras promised.
why is Boston paying more per year than the Detroit offer?
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They are paying more because they are paying for fewer years.
Yeah. Boston came with more per year because they knew they had to since they offered less years. Probably a tough decision for Bregman to leave 3/81, essentially after deferrals, on the table. So, his deciding factor could very well be that his stats were off the charts in that “kitty litter box”. The last part was in Sparky Anderson’s voice because he made a big headline over saying that years ago, lol.
Of course the money is always the primary factor BUT Fenway gives him his best chance at a bounce-back year that will then get him that contract Boras promised.
Fenway generates 9% more runs than Comerica and 16% more than T-mobile. Bregman himself has a 1.240 OPS in Fenway. POBOs know this, but huge signing agent made by them alone and history tells us that a great year in a hitters park is better than a mediocre year in a pitchers park when it comes to contracts, even if the park factors even out (there’s a long list of better who have suffered contractually after playing for the Mariners).
If the Mariners had offered this deal, there’s no way Brengman/Boras would have accepted (there are other factors as well).
With monster and playing 2b he could have a all star season. If AJ Preller sees those inflated Fenway stats Bregman can opt out and get 300m.
Every POBO knows the Inflated STATS. No way anyone will offer more than $40M per year or another 6-year contract next winter. He will stay in Boston, or he will lose $$$$$.
There’s nothing to suggest Xander was worth 280m other than inflated stats. One of the worst contracts in baseball history.
Only a sith deals in absolutes. We’ll see what trillionaire team owner has to say about your numbers.
Comparing Boegarts to Bregman over the 5 years prior to free agency using park adjusted stats: Boegarts had a 133 OPS+ while Bregman had a 122 OPS+. In fact Bregman only managed to match that 133 mark in a single season (112, 113, 133, 124, 117).
Boegarts hit .300/.373/.507 (.880 OPS) to Bregman’s. 261/.350/.445 (.795 OPS)
To take it several steps further and not just point out Boegarts had 23.7 bWAR to Bregman’s 16.8 you have the following to consider over their 5 years pre FA:
Boegarts:
3 All Star games
3 Silver Sluggers
5 MVP ballots (13, 5, 17, 12, 9)
Bregman:
0 All Star Games
0 Silver Sluggers
2 MVP Ballots (0, 0, 19, 22, 0)
It seems to be a major disservice to Boegarts to link these two together. Boegarts also was a year younger reaching free agency.
My bad. I thought I was just making a joke cheap shot at Padres. Didn’t realize I was comparing players.
Agree Boegarts better stats. Better waste of $ as well.
He absolutely will not opt out. He will hit doubles galore and probably resign to end his career with a 3 year 30 million deal. He still loses 20 million overall but with smart investments getting 40 AAV he probably gets with in 10 million of what he could have had. Smart move by Boras & Bregman with the AAV
Sorry to nitpick, but as you’re being thorough, Bogaerts was less than 6 months younger (by 2 days).
If Bogaerts was willing to take a short term 31.7mil AAV contract from the Red Sox, I’m sure they would have jumped for joy. That 11 year deal it’s going to be real rough at the end.
Definitely similar age but Boegarts played the entire 1st year of his as a 30 year old and Bregman will play the entire first season at 31 years of age.
The Padres will probably end up paying 280m for 20 WAR, not a great return on investment by any means but he won’t go down as one of the worst contracts in the history of the game, like the 245m deals for Rendon and Strasburg or the 160m for Chris Davis that provided zero value to the team.
The funny thing in this situation is they offered Trea Turner around 65m more than what they paid Boegarts (biggest contract for a middle infielder).
Regardless, here is hoping Bregman rakes in Boston and Boegarts is back putting up a 120 OPS+. Would be a fun matchup in the World Series!
Granted Harris was not involved with the Baez offer a few years ago, how did that turn out for the first three years? Good thing there are 3 more years for him to continue at a productive level.
Harris’ comment about pivoting to the next player until someone takes your money is a direct reference to Avila and the Baez contract. Avila went after Correa, but wanted to sign before the lockout because he knew the big payroll teams wouldn’t bid until a new contract was in place with new luxury tax numbers. Correa wouldn’t sign so Avila found Javy, who took his money.
Bregman should age much better than Baez. Completely different player. Not that Detroit should have been seriously interested in him.
He already started to decline last year in a hitters park in his walk year. 2024 is thes best he will be able to provide. Forget prior years as he is on the decline. $40 Million even for just one year is too much. His hitting is about league average. He might continue to decline as Father Time is undefeated. But also he will be facing the AL East in more games.
Arenado be willing to go to Detroit?
I think Arenado will be available before or during this season. As you eluded in your comment though, would Arenado be willing to waive that no trade clause to go to Detroit? I think if Arenado struggles early, they may not start him which might encourage a change of scenery. I do think that their front office can be ruthless & might do just that if Arenado struggles out the gate.
Arenado was perfect for Houston. Pretty great fit in NY. I think both of those should be revisited.
Detroit alright fit. Arenado hit data is toast. He’s like Bregman Paredes that he is only ideal in a few parks. He’s worst of the bunch. But still has glove. Also a big name.
I dont see them letting 20+ million sit on the bench no matter if he struggles and I don’t see their manager breaking his loyalty to playing a veteran player.. He either gets moved or is the everyday third baseman.
His glove is so great he won’t struggle unless injury. He’s just expensive. Not awful and needing benched.
If they bench him just to force a trade good luck signing players ever again.
Good point. I didn’t think of the overall impact if the move was to bench him, who would wanna go to STL.
If he’s benched because of poor play, it wouldn’t effect anything. That’s what should happen.
Players would go. I didn’t phrase that well. It would just be as a last resort or they would have to pay more $. I’m sure you understood but just to make it clear to some others. It will be remember how they treated Nolan.
Arenado will not be getting benched.
Arenando may waive his NTC just to get out of St Louis. Detroit has playoff aspirations & that’s got to be intriguing to him.
What we have I can easily see matching Arenado’s production. I say save it for Skubal
He doesn’t hit well in Comerica. Small sample size but he’s probably seen a lot of long fly ball outs there. He also isn’t hitting LHP anymore so the Tigers won’t be interested.
God I hope he’s not willing and that the Tigers aren’t interested. He’s overpriced and washed up. I’d rather give Jung the chance.
I’m glad my Tigers did not sign Bregman, as much as I do like the player. I think the last 3 years of his contract might have been an albatross – or at least, not worth the expenditure of limited payroll. I think the Tigers are doing it right.
And with our very strong farm system, if the team seems like it will make a run this season, we’ll have plenty of tradable assets to get that right handed masher we need. LET THE KIDS PLAY!
Most big money contracts are bad at the end. The nature of them is you get surplus value in the beginning, and then have years to figure out how to handle the extra salary you pay at the end.
I can’t really think of a big free agent deal that didn’t have bad years at the end. Maybe Manny in Boston?
The whole point of the big deals is to compete now, fix issues you are facing now, and deal with other problems later.
Precisely things only large revenue teams can do. Small markets can’t brush things under a rug or count on “dealing with problems later” nearly as easily.
Detroit (more mid market than large) was smart not to push outside its comfort zone.
Or perhaps, as others have pointed out, Detroit was saved from itself. Or by Bregman’s delusions of grandeur (that his performance will eventually get him more in the long run).
Avory – that’s true for the long term deals, where the extra years at the end hell drive down the AAV. But if Detroit is trying to win now, which based on their second half surge last year they should be, signing Bregman to a short term deal for higher AAV makes sense.
Now I’m a Sox fan and feel they overpaid, even with the shorter term to the deal. But I’m a little shocked that Detroit didn’t send out an offer like the Cubs. Maybe signing Gleyber prevented that. Who knows.
@Joemo
Any Detroit front office employee who would endorse $40m for three years of Alex Bregman–ALEX BREGMAN!–on the basis of the Tigers’ ludicrous last two months should be fired on the spot.
Maybe Randy Johnson. He’s one of very few though.
Greg maddux. Was a great deal start to finish.
Scherzer was terrific, but yes it’s the exceptions that stand out for stars being strong throughout a lengthy deal.
Beltran on mets. Only thing that kept his value down was injury. And in his final year he was great again which brought back wheeler in a trade.
Beltre to the Rangers
Majority of contracts are bad. Majority of end years are the worst years. Owners look at contracts different than most all of you.
Harper already one of greatest contracts a team ever had. Pujols amazing contract the minute it was signed. Win from day 1.
I’m glad th4ey didn’t chase him/ Keeping the guys they have will be the most important thing they do this year. This will be another evaluation year to better see where their at, and what they need going forward.
That Bregman contract may put Skubal into the stratosphere for them, but who knows ? At the end of the day its up to the player if he wants to stay or go. They have him for at least 2 years and that may be enough to win it all too. They have a good team that will be better this year. Its exciting.
How exactly do you know that the Tigers are “a good team that will be better this year”?
I’m pretty sure I’d have said in July of last year that the Tigers would be better in 2025, but after that insane run subsequent to the team hoisting a white flag at the deadline, how can anyone be certain they’ll be better than that?
Don’t get me wrong, the AL Central is competitive, and the Tigers don’t necessarily HAVE to be better to be in the mix, but I think their fans are looking at their team through the lens of the second half of the season, which might not be the clearest way to look at things.
They won’t go 33-13 down the stretch again most likely, but they won’t be 13, or whatever games under 500 in August either. And perhaps most importantly, is Detroit is literally the only team in the division that didn’t subtract. And they added instead of just swapping out Santana and Kepler (Twins) and Naylor, Gimenez, (Guards) etc, with downgrades. It was already a close division before the winter.
You’re clearly not understanding what Cleveland did this winter. But that’s not unusual; most never understand Cleveland but often wake looking up at them in the standings.
What did they do then…..to help them in 25? Since you’ll probably reference them getting the Straw and Gimenez deals off the books. Which is awesome for their financial situation, but if they’re just sticking it in their pockets like they’re showing so far, it does nothing for them on the field in 25.
ZIPS predicts the Tigers at .500; Fangraphs has them 2 over and PECOTA four under. So exactly how are they demonstrably “better”?
Predictions by those things are always conservative. I go by what everyone did last season, what moves they made, and assuming that some, from every team, take steps forward. The difference is basically the moves they make coupled with the luck of health. It seems to be the most logical way to look at it. Versus running it through a simulator a million times. Which is why it always seems like they predict everyone is right around 500 for the most part.
Because games are played on the field, not on paper or a computer. No one saw last year’s run coming wither.
The weakest part of Cleveland’s team by far was its rotation. They solidified a starter’s spot with Luis Ortiz, a direct result of the Gimenez deal, and netted two well-regarded high school arms as well, organizational depth that was desperately needed. Savings helped net them Jakob Junis, who will probably be better than Alex Cobb at a third of the price and Paul Sewald. There are replacements for Naylor and Gimenez (not even counting Carlos Santana, which was probably an ill-advised expenditure) who not unreasonably can duplicate the WAR of the departed. Cleveland also did not rest on its bullpen, adding to a clear strength there.
No one is delusional in Cleveland; we know maintaining competitiveness this year won’t be easy, but there is a sound approach to competing, not just “saving dollars” for a rainy day. Their payroll is already north of last year’s and funds will be available at the deadline.
ZIPS has Cleveland in a dead heat with Minnesota for first, PECOTA has them 2 under .500 and Fangraphs projects them 8 under. The variance of possibilities for CLE is always wide, but normally they surpass expectations.
Except they don’t “predict” everyone around .500 for the most part. Good teams are projected solidly above and bad teams are solidly below. That Detroit’s outcomes are uniformly projected around .500 merely says they will likely be more mediocre than good. Merely dismissing objective median assessments is kind of silly.
I actually forgot about Junis. He could help if he stays healthy. Their offense declined and it already had problems to begin with. Their pitching, while noting that their SP is thin by evaluators/writers, isn’t really looked at that way by us fans. At least fans of other teams. As they seem to always find a way in that department. Bottom line is they subtracted more than they added. We’ll have to see, I guess. Everyone has weaknesses in the division because we don’t have the unlimited money to throw at every hole. Detroit has a top farm system that has many either close or ready.
Cleveland also has Shane Bieber coming back healthy at mid-season, healthier than he has been for years, and amped to pitch well down the stretch for the big contract he missed. The rotation was a sorry mess last year that somehow got papered over by reputation. Evaluators are correct to be skeptical about it now, which was why CLE was so intent on shoring it up. Slade Cecconi is another guy who might figure into the mix, along with possible bouncebacks by guys like Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen.
My biggest fear is Minnesota. With health, they really don’t have any weaknesses. Which is why PECOTA looks at their talent and projects them to blow away the division fairly easily.
Predictions don’t demonstrate anything. How did they fare to last years predictions? How are they better? Flaherty, Torres, Cobb, Kahnle, and another year of experience.
Predictions don’t demonstrate anything.
===========================
They demonstrate a range of expectations. If teams are predicted to win 60 games, I feel pretty comfortable betting that they will be under .500.
In fact, people can bet on every team’s under/over. If the bookies aren’t fairly accurate, they will go bankrupt.
Beiber probably won’t be himself until 26 though. At least that seems to be the way that goes for the majority of em. Again, we’ll see how it goes for everyone. There’s so many surprises both positive and negative every season that who knows. Should be a fun, competitive year for everyone. Even Chicago is in a position where they can only improve, lol.
Cleveland had “another year of experience” after winning the division in 2022 and they signed expensive free agents to fill gaping holes.
So how did that turn out?
Then they did absolutely nothing after their disastrous 2023 and yet ended up in the ALCS last year.
Point being, thinking 2025 is going to be any kind of extension of Detroit’s 2024 is total folly.
They are more than likely a .500 team and that’s not an insult. It very well could mark progress, and it could also keep them competitive in the division, depending on MInnesota’s health (if Minnesota is healthy, they likely win the division going away).
If Matthew Boyd wasn’t “himself” last year, he wouldn’t have got the contract he did from the Cubs. I would be very surprised if Bieber isn’t making a substantial difference to Cleveland’s rotation down the stretch. Let’s just hope Cleveland stays in the race until then (like they did last year when Boyd came to the rescue).
“In recent winters, we’ve seen teams continuing to pivot until someone takes their money.”
See Bogaerts, Xander
And Toronto, specifically this winter
See what Toronto does every year.
I thought the Scherzer signing was one of the best of the offseason.
Of course the Straw trade i thought was one of the worst.
Given all the deferrals, the Santander signing is pretty good. Straw and Gimenez trades…no.
Baez, Javy.
Arenado would be a good fit for the Tigers but I doubt he wants to go to Detroit.
I think what we have won’t be far off enough to justify his contract difference, production wise. I say save it for Skubal unless a monster becomes available at the deadline
Arenado could very well outperform Bregman in 2025. He’s also a veteran presence which I think the Tigers could use. He’s a great fit. The Cobb and Flaherty money could be used to sign Skubal long term.
Either way, I’m sure Arenado wouldn’t be interested. The Yankees might still end up making a play for him though, imo.
Bregman should easily put up better stats than Nolan anywhere. Should out perform him as well.
Why not? Losing seasons in Colorado then gets to go to a franchise that shows to be competitive but last few years isn’t. Detriot was competitive last year.
Maybe, but an aging 3B with a big contract isn’t really up the Tigers alley. Plus I would agree that Arenado would likely veto a trade to Detroit. He is being very picky which is his right. But picky to the point that the Cardinals GM pretty much said he’d be staying in STL this year.
They have $40m dropping off next year between Maeda Cobb and Torres. Between the 28m/yr they were budgeting for Bregman and that, it’s enough to add a long-term RH bat and extend Skub. Greene is then the only guy they need to extend before 2029 or so. Baez’s money should do most of that after it disappears after 2027.
Clark, Liranzo, McGonigle and Briceño all should follow Jung and Jobe in 2026/27. Still have a few more arms that look like they will backfill Mize over time. Pen is stacked with Pitching Chaos guys, Hell, maybe Tork or JHM will have a light bulb moment this year…
Lots to look forward to in the D
I think the Tigers are lucky that Bregman didn’t take their money.
It’s a shame they were not equally lucky in their pursuit of Baez.
When you sign free agents to long term deals sometimes it doesn’t work out. The Orioles answer to this is not signing players to long term deals. And sometimes that doesn’t work out……
We’re talking about the Tigers, BITA.
Bregman is heading into his age 31 season and his offensive production has declined 3 years in a row now. There is a very good chance that he saved the Tigers from themselves here.
@BITA
“Sometimes”?
Try the vast majority of the time.
Mostly misses with large free agent contracts. Decent amount of them are bad from day 1 never had a chance.
As a fan of another AL Central club, I’m bitterly disappointed Detroit’s quest for another boat anchor…er…Bregman, went unfulfilled.
Iktf, Avory.
I’m an Orioles fan and I do not expect Santander to age gracefully so I am not terribly upset about the Blue Jays guaranteeing him 5 years.
Baltimore got every last bit out of Santander before turning the page in right field. Sound judgment there. I’m tired of hearing that the Orioles are doing the wrong thing with their club. Nothing but sustained competitiveness ahead of them in a very tough division. Have to be smart to to survive with all that largess in the East..
Yeah, Santander is a completely 1 dimensional player and he’s very unlikely to match or exceed his big 2024 going forward, so taking a high draft pick from a divisional rival and moving on was the right call there. He was a Rule 5 pick so I have no complaints whatsoever about how things worked out with him. All smiles 🙂
And the people ragging on the Orioles’ offseason generally seem to have a very surface level familiarity with their present roster and where additions actually needed to be made to it. Significantly improving the lineup against lefties was the #1 need this offseason and Mike Elias did a pretty fantastic job with that, and he did it without taking on much long-term risk (only O’Neill got more than 1 year and he may opt out after 2025).
Hang in there, Tigers! If you’re close come July, hopefully we get a trade that gets us an anchor for the lineup. And maybe, guys like Jung, Malloy, Vierling & Greene develop with more power?? Hope springs eternal this time of year….love it!
That is likely the Tigers move here. They will be opportunistic if something comes their way but probably won’t go after a trade at this point. Plan B is filling 3B internally and seeing what happens.
Absolutely ecstatic that Bregman signed with BOS. This contract would age terribly had he signed, and would maybe not be as ugly as the Baez contract (not many are) but would be an albatross by year 3. I think Boston did well too, as they only have to pay him for 3 years, even with a higher AAV. But I’d much rather see what Jung can do with a entire season of plate appearances, not to mention that Vierling’s numbers were only slightly worse than Bregmans and he will be $37M cheaper!
Overall interesting are to the Bregman thing. He seemed stuck on some ideas–that he couldn’t take an AAV that was lower than his existing one, no matter how high the guarantee is–and that he had to have opt0outs. Not to dis the player, but he had two terrific years in 2018/9, and since then has settled into thw 4WAR range–very good, but not superstar. His walk rate fell sharply last year and since he doesn’t hit for average, you wonder what’a going on. It’s possible he’ll go to Fenway, have a great year, and score another, bigger contract, but 6 year offer from the Tigers, and other rumors (one of which was he expected $200M) he might have been overvaluing himself. Or not—$120M guarantee with the chance to shop for more isn’t bad.
Yes-very good player, but don’t get carried away. His reputation is heightened by the horses of Altuve/Yordan making the team tick more than him…..and at various times in their decade run Springer/Correa/Tucker.
Gotta admit, I was a little surprised that the Baez franchise doled out such a long-term offer for a declining player. Yeah, the Baez fiasco is a product of previous management. But every day Baez is right in front of your face, reminding you that long-term can be a witch.
Bregman obviously hopes that enough doubles dumped off the Fenway wall will get him a long-term bonanza when he opts out after 2025. Even if it happens the way Bregman wants, I wouldn’t go there after 2025, Detroit.
My instinct screamed that the Tigers dodged a bullet. That’s pretty high money to my mind. Trades take player capital too..so there’s that. I think I’d rather Arenado if he’s amenable.
It sure sounds like the Tigers are ready to move on from Torkelson…doesn’t have a position with Keith being moved to first base. He is a Right-handed hitter that had 31 HRs in 2023 yet Harris says they need a Right-handed bat.
Not a bad 1B but lots of Ks in 2024. I would not be surprised at all if AJ Preller hasn’t already checked in with Detroit about the parameters of a trade. Torkelson would not be a free agent until 2029.and IF he came to San Diego and got it figured out I could see him breaking a lot of windows in the Western Metals Building…change of scenery might be just what Detroit and Torkelson both need.
I did have to laugh at the “someone who would just take our money” comment and it’s kind of nice to hear POBO say that for a change.
I also think the Tigers are heading in the right direction and having the long history that they do I think it’s good for baseball as a whole when they are in the mix and competitive.
Has anyone broken down these contracts in realistic terms? If I average Bregman’s PA for the last three years it comes out to 671. Dividing $40M / year by 671 PA it comes out to almost $60k every time he steps to the plate!! He makes more in one plate appearance than a lot of Americans make in a year!!
Al – Bregman is earning $31.7M annually, not $40M.
Bregman’s deal is good for both the team and the player! Is it expensive yes but it’s short term! Boston was desperate and had to do this deal. The problem is someone needs to man up and tell Devers that he is a better DH. We need Bregman’s glove at 3b
I love when BITA informs us all.
Bregman is going to do well at Fenway, it was either Red Sox or Astros all along I think. Good on the Tigers for not getting into a bidding war. Save that money for Skubal or spread it across a young core of guys that can be extended.
Bregman pretty much saw what happened to Chapman last year and a similar thing was happening to him in this market. So he takes the high AAV deal with the opts out he wanted. He now has $120M of security and the chance to opt out if he has a monster season in 2025. He is banking on that given how he hits in Fenway.
Doesn’t matter because most of you are missing the bigger picture. Tigers have this season and next with Skubal under contract. He’s very likely going to sign elsewhere once he hits free agency. Since 2009, because I didn’t bother going back further to check, the numbers tell the whole story. Of the 15 World Series winners, 1 and only 1 was lower than 15th in payroll. That team was the 2017 Astros, so take that what you will. In fact, 12 of the 15 were Top 10 payroll teams. Atlanta Braves won in 2021 with the 11th highest payroll. So, that’s 13 of 15 inside the Top 12 payrolls.
Why does that matter, you ask? Currently, the Detroit Tigers sit 18th in payroll. Keep talking about the young guys coming in and playing better. Won’t matter if they don’t spend money. I know, I’ll get a bunch of responses about spending money smart, blah blah blah. Still won’t dispute the facts. They are more than highly likely to spin their wheels the next two seasons of Skubal, most likely trading him at the deadline next season because they realize what many of you haven’t. They aren’t true contenders and aren’t willing to spend to do so. I won’t argue that even if they spent big money this or next offseason they would win the World Series. I’m just saying not spending gives you virtually NO chance to win it. We could go back 25 years, to 2000 and I’m pretty confident the trend would hold so it’s not recency bias either.
Oh for god’s sake, there’s no hard and fast rule. Teams mature, get better, payrolls go up organically. Teams can win if they get in the playoffs because it’s the nature of baseball. And if they lose in game 7 of the World Series, it’s because of what happened between the lines, not because of payroll. Your analysis is simplistic.
It’s not simplistic. If anything can happen in the playoffs, explain the numbers. You can’t. Say it’s simplistic if you want. Only 7 of the possible 28 World Series teams were outside the Top 12 in payroll. Saying what happens between the lines makes the difference. Could it be, I don’t know, possible things happen between the lines because those teams have deeper rosters with better players because they spend the money to make it so? I know, it’s a crazy leap of logic. If what you said about “anything can happen if you make the playoffs”, the numbers wouldn’t be as skewed as they are if that were the case. It’s just a narrative you’ve believed in because that’s what MLB wants you to. It’s also why they added an extra Wild Card. More fan bases involved and better ratings. If you and I had to make a bet right now, which group of teams would you rather bet on? The Top 12 payrolls or the bottom 18? Numbers don’t lie. That you think it’s simplistic is irrelevant.
Bregman’s best years came when he knew what pitch was coming. For $120MM (or whatever it was) how would any team know what Bregman is even capable of?
His best season, 2019 (8.3 fWAR), came after the sign stealing – according to the investigation.
Even if you think the Astros continued to cheat in 2019 (although they didn’t find evidence they did) then we have 5 years of data to indicate how Bregman can perform at the plate:
.261/.350/.445 – it would seem fair to assume he will continue to perform similarly in the near future (although Fenway may boost his stats slightly).