Robert Suarez “Most Probable” Padres Trade Chip To Be Moved?

While the Padres are intent on returning to the postseason in 2025, much of the buzz surrounding the team this winter has been about the possibility of higher-paid veteran players being dealt in order to help the team both address roster needs, and shave some money off the payroll.  Rumors have swirled around several of the Padres’ more expensive players, but as Spring Training nears, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears from two sources that dealing Robert Suarez seems to be “the move that appears most probable.”

This doesn’t indicate that Suarez will actually be dealt, of course, or that the Padres have any particular inclination to move the All-Star closer.  But, Suarez’s trade status might be elevated due to the simple fact that San Diego might be able to more easily replace him within the bullpen, and because the Padres’ other trade chips are comparatively trickier to deal away.

Among players mentioned in trade speculation this winter, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth are owed too much in future salary to hold much appeal to other teams.  Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez are slated to become free agents next winter, and Michael King is in the same boat, as his contract’s $15MM mutual option for 2026 will surely be declined by either King himself or by the Padres.  Reports have indicated that if San Diego does trade a starter, Cease is likelier to be moved than King, due to the perception that King is the likelier of the two to be open to extension talks.  As for Arraez, the Padres reportedly have a particular interest in keeping him for at least 2025.

It all leaves Suarez as something of the odd man out, though plenty of obstacles exist on that front as well.  Suarez turns 34 month, and is owed $26MM over the remaining three years of the five-year, $46MM pact he signed with San Diego in November 2022.  That $26MM breaks down as $10MM in 2025, and then Suarez has the option of deciding whether or not to opt out of the deal to test free agency, or simultaneously exercise a pair of $8MM player options covering the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

Just two months ago, this contract structure was seemingly an obstacle towards a deal, as The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote that “for now” the Padres weren’t looking to trade Suarez.  Last month, however, the team’s stance seemed to change, as the Padres were thought to be more open to the idea of moving Suarez due to some interest on the trade market.

While many teams could use a high-leverage reliever, working out an acceptable trade return will be tricky for both sides.  Another team might only view Suarez as a one-year investment due to the possibility of an opt-out, while the Padres might view such a trade return as too slight for a pitcher who could end up providing his new club with three years of control.

Beginning his career pitching in the Mexican League and then a long stint in Nippon Professional Baseball, Suarez didn’t make his debut in affiliated baseball until 2022, when he made his MLB debut at age 31.  The Padres were impressed enough by Suarez’s NPB production to sign him to a one-year, $11MM deal during the 2021-22 offseason, and the team’s belief has paid off.  While his season was marred by injuries and a 10-game sticky-stuff suspension, Suarez was excellent in both 2022 and this past season, when he succeeded Josh Hader as San Diego’s closer.

Suarez posted a 2.77 ERA in 65 innings while closing out 36 of 42 save opportunities during the 2024 regular season, and added 3 1/3 scoreless innings during three playoff appearances.  One of baseball’s hardest-throwing pitchers, Suarez paired that velocity with an above-average walk rate, though other metrics (like his strikeout, barrel, and grounder rates) were all slightly below the league average.

Between Suarez’s age, his .256 BABIP last year, and a 3.53 SIERA that was significantly higher than his 2.77 ERA, a case can be made that the Padres could be making a wise move in selling high on Suarez in advance of any regression.  On the other hand, moving your closer puts more pressure on the rest of the relief corps, and thins out a bullpen that has already lost Tanner Scott to free agency.  Jason Adam or Adrian Morejon might be the most logical save candidates if Suarez is dealt, assuming that the Padres would stick with a full-time closer rather than a committee approach.