When the Red Sox opened camp last week, Kutter Crawford stood out as an immediate injury concern due to a lingering knee problem that first arose last April. The situation hasn’t much improved, as manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (multiple links) and other reporters that Crawford’s right patellar tendon is still giving him discomfort following a long-toss session on Thursday and a bullpen session yesterday.
“Opening Day, right now, is an ’if.’ Let’s see what happens,” Cora said. “[Crawford is] not feeling well. He’s behind. We’ve got to make sure the knee is good so the shoulder doesn’t suffer.”
Unfortunately for the Sox, Crawford isn’t the only pitcher facing uncertainty early in camp, as Brayan Bello has been dealing with shoulder soreness since the start of spring camp. Cora said Bello will undergo a strength test tomorrow, as the Red Sox continue to evaluate the right-hander’s status. To date, Bello has been throwing, but the team has been taking it relatively slowly with this progression, and Cora said Bello hasn’t thrown any bullpens. Between the two starters, Crawford seems to be more of a question mark than Bello, as Cora said that “with Kutter, that’s the one it looks like is going to be long.”
With over a month before Opening Day, there is plenty of time for either pitcher to still get healthy for the season in general, even if the Red Sox could be cautious in placing Crawford and/or Bello on the 15-day injured list just to provide more ramp-up time. In theory, Boston has a good deal of pitching depth on hand in the form of Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester and Michael Fulmer, so any of these arms could fill in for Crawford, Bello, or Lucas Giolito, who is still working through his rehab from an internal brace surgery from last March.
Only five proper starters will be needed in the early going, as Cora confirmed that Boston will be using a five-man rotation. Reports in January indicated that the Sox were at least thinking about a six-man staff in order to best utilize and manage its starting depth, but Cora said “we haven’t talked about a six-man. You guys have talked about it. If we go that route, it’s for a reason. For right now, we’re taking the best five and using the bullpen.”
This lines the staff up as Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, Giolito if healthy enough for Opening Day, and then potentially one of the depth starters if Bello and Crawford indeed aren’t available. Plans could certainly change given Boston’s busy early schedule, as both Cotillo and Cora noted that the team plays on 19 of the regular season’s first 20 days.
The injury bug is also impacting Boston’s position players, as Wilyer Abreu has yet to start workouts due to a gastrointestinal virus. A team spokesperson told Cotillo and other reporters that Abreu received “some abnormal labs” on his illness, but the “labs have been getting better, and he’s feeling better, but they’re waiting for those to get back to a normal range before baseball activity.”
More testing is coming on Monday, Cora said, and Abreu will sit through the weekend. A timeline isn’t in place for how much time Abreu could still miss, or whether or not this absence could cost him any time on the injured list at the start of the season. Abreu is slated for another heavy role in Boston’s outfield this season, as the Gold Glover looks to build on a very successful rookie year.
What a rotation! What a lineup! What a bullpen! What a trainwreck! Can’t wait to watch Breslow’s Follies and Trainwreck go hurtling off the rails around and about early June:)
Least they have third base covered
Since Boston invented a lot of cool things in America like colonial adventure crafting, the tea party, and dysfunctional family black comedies where they all talk funny, maybe they can solve the position conundrum by simply adding a fifth position on the diamond: fourth bass. Just outfit Devers with an Itty bitty end table, nite light and a sippy cup and he can play the field there. There. Now everyone’s happy. Like Oprah’s audience.
Point God.
Unlike the Yankees, with DJ and the Oswalds, lol
What a pathetic Yankees troll!
If it makes you feel better, we NY fans hate these trolls, too.
Yeah would think many Yankee fans while a bit uncouth, would have better things to do on a random cold Feb than troll their little brother. More likely someone not even invited to the family picnic. Maybe they’re Oriole trolls? Or Philly?
Just love the trolling like where are the Sox fans mentioning Stanton’s already hurt, how the Yankees don’t have anyone to play third and their supposed outfield defense has a guy in left who looked absolutely lost last year. oh here I am. lol. It’s spring training and every team has similar issues.
Well, he has SOME merit. Red Sox have a lot to prove
So do the Yankees. They lost Soto and replaced him with a collection of question marks. Also they are still depending on DJ to play every day. That’s rough
Completely agreed. I’m not sold on the Yankees. But to assume the Sox are going to be very good without question is premature.
But yes, OP’s overall consensus is over the top and erronous.
I don’t think this is a playoff team. I am leaning way more towards disappointment than pleasant surprise. This was a team that needed additions in multiple places, but nothing was an overwhelming upgrade outside of a costly trade for a starter, and a potential log jam situation at 2nd/3rd. Nice additions with flags attached. The team also needed to make significant subtractions and switches that were not done to improve the team defensively and create openings they needed to make. This was not done. This is a year built around health. If healthy they will have a pretty good showing and hover around a playoff spot. If not this can go bad very easily.
The logjam is actually 2b / 3b / OF. Moving Yoshida fixes the jam for the most part.
You can’t depend on health. We need depth
Take a pill.
8 days into spring training and already throwing in the towel?…
Rsox – Exactly!
It’s the equivalent of taking a guy’s job away just one year into a 10-year contract.
Fever, it you really want to win, Devers has to move off third. He’s getting his money. If he was so concerned about playing third, don’t sign or put trade or other clauses in it that are legit but makes it a poison pill to implement.
Dewey – All I’m saying is there are many factors to take into consideration, same with releasing Yoshida. Like how that dishonorable release would impact perception with future Japanese free agents.
Like Breslow said years ago, don’t cut off your nose to spite your face. Think about ripple effect.
There’s nothing wrong with that if that guy can’t play 3b haha
Fever, as a life-long Sox fan and with a best friend that has been a scout for the Red Sox for 11 years (primarily throughout Japan, Korea, UAE, and Australia), trust me when I say your worry about Japanese players being dissuaded by the Red Sox if they release is him is completely unfounded). There is talent all over the world and only a few “stars” that have come out of Japan relative to the rest of the world. Granted, they were a couple huge stars, but Sox don’t need to “save face” with a Japanese player that hasn’t lived up to the hype and been hurt. Plenty of places to pull talent from.
Keep dreamin if this is the worst they will be fine
If they do manage to stay healthy, I firmly believe this Red Sox pitching staff will be Top 3 in baseball (in both SP & Bullpen ERA), with the AL CY going to Crochet or Buehler.
People are quick to forget that Buehler is only 3 years removed from one of the best SP seasons of the last decade (better than the career best years from both big ticket free agents of Fried and Burnes) – and that’s a much shorter gap of time than Sale had between Cy Young awards before his 2024 comeback. Buehler flashed that upside again in the 2024 postseason and has a major chip on his shoulder, much like Sale last year.
Crochet is currently a close 2nd favorite behind Skubal in the Vegas odds for 2025 AL CY, with considerably better odds than both Cole and Fried…
But sure, just a bunch of trainwreck bums
You’ve gotta understand. To have those 3 go through the 2025 season without multiple injuries is a big ask. Wonder what the Vegas odds are on them all making every start. Not going to happen.
Plus criswell, fitts and priester are not bad depth to have
Crochet has a very legitimate shot at a Cy Young in the near future.
Hank – If he can stay healthy and put up a solid 180+ innings.
That’s far from a given.
You’re talking Cy Young and Crochet has barely even pitched 100 innings in a full season…
Crochet made 32 starts and pitched 146 innings last year with the White Sox limiting his innings. Hopefully, he can pitch 180-200 innings this year.
Guys, what baseball player was a finished product, with no need to grow or required to learn any other part of his craft as he just turned 25yo? The list is so long, where to start, right(?)
Stop the polarizing-ness of Crochet. The guy has amazing raw talent, isn’t that why we brought in Breslow and Bailey, to get young pitching to the next level!!!
Yes, he has injury concerns. Perhaps B&B cam work to build him up in a health conscious way. He got over 100 innings last year in a thoughtful way. The organization should be looking to get his innings to a 140,160,180,180,180 over the next five years. If you wanted 180+ each of the next five years, should’ve spent the money on Burnes.
Worst case scenario is the starter experiment fails and you get a few years of the league’s most dominant closer.
Either way he should get extended for 5 or 6yrs at around $22m per year now.
Forget the injuries. We’ve already paid Paxton, Giolito, Hendricks and others to NOT pitch. None of them had any of the upside thus guy has.
We spent a lot to get him here, not extending him is malpractice.
I will agree that Buehler is a monster and I can see his comeback, but I wouldn’t get my hopes up with Crochet pitching a full season and/or being completely effective through it
There we go! Lots of fans tried before you, but you hit on the exact right tone to reply to that comment. Kudos.
They need to rip off the bandaid and get that knee surgically fixed up, the right way, before it becomes an E-rod level lingering problem.
Since when is tendinitis in a knee something that requires a surgical fix?
A year’s worth of untreated tendinitis? I don’t think it’s as simple as just a mildly irritated tendon.
I’d bet there were some bone spurs that developed that create issues, or some tendon sheath issues, or something more – and for a variety of reasons ranging from leverage to hippa you don’t know the full story
So you’re going to guess you know what’s going on and jump right to “schedule him for surgery” without any tests? How about maybe an MRI first and determine whether or not there actually is an issue that may require surgery before declaring a player should undergo something like that?
Obviously there would be testing to determine the issues. But the answer after the problem persisted this long likely isn’t rest and therapy.
Plus, the body has a nasty habit of growing unwanted biomass as a matter of course with persistent issues like that – thus my mentions of bone spurs, and, scar-like tissue around the tendon sheath areas. These are things I’ve seen countless times within medical reports and are a biological fact.
The red sox staff have a long history of waiting excessive time to address things in their pitching staff, whether it’s the afore mentioned erod, or it was sale, or others.
GaSox – Many years ago I had trauma to my left knee that caused tendinitis. I was limping for a year, and it never did fully go away.
It’s the underlying cause. while surgery is not needed now, is there a cyst? Narrowing space with loss of cartilage? Prior complains about degeneration at his young age? Usually there is either a traumatic or historical reason involved.
Dewey – Already been answered long ago. He twisted it stepping on the new gigantic base.
“My third start of the season, I covered first base and as soon as I hit the base, something happened.”
When tendinitis persists this long without recovering, there is something wrong. I hesitate to guess at specifics, though. Maybe an MRI will shed light? Maybe they’ve already done one?
KingKen, tendinitis can simply be mild and chronic. I have that with both Achilles tendons, no real injury but the dang things won’t return to being pain free. It’s all about symptom management, which for me isn’t an issue because it’s more just an awareness thing and something that only holds me back because I have no reason to push it.
Surely he’s had a battery of examinations, and if no surgery has been advised that probably just isn’t something that’s on the table.
It’s supposed to be Crawford’s right knee.
I’m as much concerned about psychological issues where he doesn’t trust it or worries about it acting up as I am in any mechanics adjustments he may have made compensating for so long with it being balky as it obviously impacted results after those first few starts.
GaSox – Excellent post! So very true, he had 5 good starts after the injury was caused and then his performance went downhill.
What I’d like to know, why did Cora and staff allow him to lead MLB in starts last year knowing he was injured? Even after they were eliminated he still made all his starts.
Fever – what I’d like to know is why there appears to be this chasm between the young players and the training staff.
Look at how many of the young guys were trying to play through stuff, which, only let to longer layoffs?
Crawford’s knee. Casas’ ribs (remember his injury started like 4 games before he left the lineup.) Mayer’s shoulder. I mean, as an organization you’d think these kids would’ve heard about how gritting out the wrong injury makes things worse the first time Mayer lost major playing time doing it. By the *second* time a guy does it, you bring it up in one of the regular team meetings if not re-educate the kids on the resources they have to take advantage of because of how important they are to the team.
But when it keeps playing out over, and over, and over with your youngest who you depend on making the most contributions as an organization…. something is wrong.
Either something in the culture and expectations from the coaches/staff. Or some breakdown in accessibility and communication. Something.
GaSox – Can’t type much now for obvious reasons, but despite no Grissom or Campbell or Yoshida there’s no Devers in the lineup. Whether injured or other reasons, not a good sign considering it’s the televised home opener.
Fever- I was on the other thread and I realized a long reply I’d written was nowhere to be seen.
I don’t recall all I would’ve written, but, one takeaway point was I don’t expect Yoshida to be released before the season, or maybe even ever. But even if he did leave, my call would be keep your existing username
Worst case, if the Red Sox really need to, they can sign someone like Quintana or Gibson and have the rotation taken care of. Either way, Red Sox are going to be a very good team in 2025. The few times I watched them last year, they were terrific, putting the ball in play, making the defense make mistakes, the base-stealing, it was a fun time!
The Red Sox may be decent but I would not say “very good.” Crochet, for starters, has never been a season long starter nor has he pitched in pressure situations. He has a lot to prove.
Crochet is dominant and has very little to prove. Pressure situations will not be a problem for him.
Therealeman, they were already “decent” last year, and without turning to the big names in the minor league system. Even just one that basis, they have a good chance at being something better than last year, and that’s not counting the various additions (I meant, Bregman is nothing if not high floor). Obviously they have to prove out “very good”, but to say they “may” only be decent is pretty silly.
This is the best collection of talent the Sox have assembled (maybe) since 2018. Not perfect, but better.
If there is a complaint to be made, it isn’t with the group of players. The front office, like all spread-sheet lovers, don’t view the team as a single entity consisting of humans working together for a common goal. They view it as 26 single entity silos.
The talent is here to potentially win 90 games. But, that’s all any team (other than Dodgers, Braves and Yankees) seem to want to do. I despise it, but this “get in to the playoffs and anything can happen” mentality is here to stay.
It’s not Devers fault that a team with no mlb 2B and an unsure catching and LF situation went out and signed another 3B. They had four months to sign Bregman, maybe they could’ve worked it all out with their BEST player before the signing(?)
I want to see Antjony and Campbell play significant amounts of games, but, lo and behold the front office did nothing to unjam the OF and 2B logjam and instead went out and signed a third baseman. Not Devers fault.
I also don’t trust the abdicating by the front office of the decision making to Cora. The Manager’s idea that anyone can play anywhere is flawed and also adds to bad defense on the field by playing guys out of position.
The 90 win talent is there, the anxiety of Sox fans should be squarely pointing at the front and managers offices
I don’t understand your comment beyond the fact you don’t like Devers.
Is Devers being selfish? The answer is a resounding yes. However, was he a clubhouse cancer causing the team to disintegrate because of his errors in 2018? The answer is a resounding no.
Devers is the team’s best player. In 2025 an organization (in any sport) cannot succeed without having clear and honest communication with their best player. That’s the way things are now, like it or not.
The simple fact is Devers works hard, and his defense has improved. Last year he had no help from SS to his left, or a 1B to help with throws.
If the simple solution to the Sox making a deep run in the playoffs was moving Devers to DH I’d be all for it, but the reality is that is by far not the biggest problem the team has had since 2019
Did you even read the article regarding the overall health of your pitching staff….seems like a MASH unit to start off the Spring and who knows what else may develop once Spring really gets into gear with workouts, throwing, and actual games…..don’t want to be a downer, but you Sox fans touting how they’ll be a very good team in 2025….this season isn’t starting off so well…and remember…until minor league ballplayers are up for several months of the season, and get a change to play, they are still full of potential….which isn’t actual results.
Rocky – the more serious sox fans know there’s a HUGE amount of variables on this seasons roster. I’d say there’s no less than 9 major contributors on a knifes edge between making massive positive impact and being flops.
Statistically you’d say they’re bound to have a decent number fall their way, which, is enough when layered over 2024’s performances to expect improvement, and, thus playoff potential.
Time will tell
GaSox – Very well said! And exactly why predictions are basically useless.
Lets just watch and enjoy the season. Crochet starts today and even though it will probably be just one or two innings I’m psyched! Should be a lot of regulars starting for today’s televised home opener.
Yeah it’s going to be great. Don’t forget to get out of the armchair QB recliner and rehab that balky knee on trips to kitchen between chili dogs .
Rocky I know you’re a Yankee fan but Narvaez looked really good behind the dish not sure if he can hit at all but who cares if he can catch like that. Was he that good defensively for the Yankees any opinion on him?
He came with a good defensive rep.
Bruin – I didn’t watch the game today, but didn’t Narvaez have a Passed Ball in just 4 innings of work? What happened there?
Obviously hitting and pitching in ST should be taken with a grain of salt, but no excuse for poor defense.
Honestly I watched nearly every pitch and I don’t remember anything that could be construed as a passed ball but perhaps I missed it grabbing a beer or something. What I did notice he threw out one base stealer and should have thrown out another if Hamilton doesn’t drop the ball. He’s good behind the plate real good from what I saw smooth not jerky really good framer.
Bruin – The lesson here is always have your beer within arm’s reach when watching Red Sox Baseball. ;O)
The Sox have enough depth pieces to weather this, but it means that Giolito, Buehler and Crochet need to stay healthy and pitch at the top of their game.
An embarrassment of rags
yankee fan here who doesn’t understand why sox fans aren’t completely hyped for this season. there’s a wide range of outcomes but a legit chance you win the division. most intriguing team in the sport to me
Many Sox fans have elevated complaining about the team to the level of a sport in and of itself in recent years. Some are finding it hard to let go of that and actually consider the possibility of the team having a good year.
dasit – There’s a whole bunch of key players trying to return from injury, that’s what is tempering Red Sox Nation’s enthusiasm.
Me personally, I’m always optimistic this time of year. If the Sox can stay healthy they definitely have a shot at the division title. Just imagine a healthy Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Story, Hendriks, Whitlock, Walker, Crochet and Giolito. Could be good times this year.
Dasit – I’ll get more excited once the regular season starts and the key pitchers (Crochet, Buehler, Houck, Giolito and I’ll include Bello) make it through spring training healthy. They also need to figure out where Bregman will play.
I would be more excited right now for the team acquired a top tier SP instead of spending the money on Bregman and Buehler. Replace Bregman and Buehler with say Burnes and Yates (trying to keep AAV similar) and I would be significantly more excited.
We’ve seen this same old song and dance before, Sox splurge on position players while trying to acquire pitchers for bargain prices and then come August the rotation is a mess and the bullpen is burnt out. Don’t get me wrong, this is the best Red Sox off-season in years. But if that same issue happens – if crochet’s one great half season of being a SP doesn’t translate to this year, if Buehler pitches like he did last year, if Giolito and Sandoval have issues recovering, if there are issues in the bullpen becauss the only acquisitions were Chapman and Wilson, then I’ll be pretty annoyed that they spent 120MM on Bregman instead of fixing those issues.
it’s february! time for irrational optimism. crochet is obviously the biggest variable but i would kill for the yankees to have three top-15 prospects knocking on the door
I’ll be irrationally optimistic if we make it to opening day and Crochet, Buehler, Giolito and Houck are healthy.
I’m a red Sox fan, but 90% of us are insufferable, entitled and pathetic. 5 years later they would rather talk about Betts than Anthony.
It’s that wonderful time of the year when injuries mount and fans curse. How brio and hope can shatter to pieces over the course of two days!
The reality is this team has depth in pitching this year. Breslow has worked hard to address this and Fitts, Priester, Criswell are legit depth this season. After them there’s Dobbins, Fulmer, and maybe Drohan who looked sharp in his two innings today.
There’s more Sandlin looks good it sounds like and Connelly Early after a lot of off-season work is throwing 95-97. If this is true then Early’s ceiling is much higher at least a mid rotation guy but with his quality secondaries potentially higher than that. I think the pitching for Boston will be fine and is in better shape to handle a few injuries than in the past.
That’s good news about Early. He is big enough that he should have a good fastball.
Unbelievable depth. Looking at my Mariners rotation and we have ONE depth guy. One. Uno. A dude. I think the others at AAA are all washed out tens times over average age 36.4…might have to convert to Christianity and take up prayer.
Thanks Sagacity, I read every single word and I was enlightened. If I decide to convert to Christianity in order to take up prayer for keeping the Mariners starting rotation healthy this season, I will happily include the Boston rotation in my prayers as well. Can’t hurt? What the hell.
Stupid ridiculous post.
I’m not going to go on at length like that, but I largely agree with you. Fitts is a “depth” starter, in my opinion, a guy who can step up for a game or three without killing the team. The statistical projections toss up a ~4.50 ERA, but that is more of an upside projection than what I would expect if he were forced into a regular role. Not dissimilar to Criswell.
Priester has a bit more potential, even if he isn’t somebody I would want to be counting on at this point. He has been a lot less homer-prone than Fitts in the minors, which is one of the better indicators of eventual major league success. The Pirates clearly rushed him, and I’m not suggesting he has high-end potential, but he isn’t that far from being a regular #4 or #5 starter.
In another season we would be writing these guys into the rotation during Spring Training and hoping for the best. This year they begin the season as “depth” starters, and won’t be called on for more than spot starts unless there are two injuries to the front guys.
That said, the team has mid-80 win talent. I totally agree that if you knock out a few of the regulars that the expectations drop by a few wins. Still better to have this depth than to be scrounging the waiver wire for starters like they did last year.
The Dodgers are the best team in baseball, there are 29 teams that compare poorly to them.
Most teams – even competitive teams – have less depth in their rotation than the Red Sox.
Priester might be more than a spot starter. Dobbins too. And there are a couple others that could potentially be contributing in 2026 (but not this year).
Their depth isn’t perfect but it is better than most teams and better than it has been in recent years. Not better than the Dodgers. 🙂
KD I think our definition of depth starters are different. I also think you discount the growth that can and does happen in the off-season.
When I say depth starters I mean guys that can come in for a short time and keep you in games the reality is Criswell did that last year I believe Fitts and Priester can also do that. Do I think any of those guys are anything more than depth starters based on last year no I don’t. They are however back of the rotation depth starters. All I’m saying this is more depth in starting pitching than Boston has had in long time. Criswell showed last year that he is capable depth starter he throws strikes gets a lot of ground balls he generally keeps you in the game that’s what a depth starter does. Richard Fitts goes about it differently he also competes he limits hard contact he mostly stays around the zone he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff but he will also keep you in the game. These guys are depth arms that come up and give you starts will they ever be big time pitchers no probably not but this is something Boston just hasn’t had for years what I would consider depth pitching capable of coming up and keeping you in the game.
Quinn Priester otoh is different he does throw strikes his fastball is pedestrian but he has a true starters mix and a legit plus pitch in that hammer curve. His ceiling imo is higher than the other two plus it looks like he put on good weight he looks much bigger this year and hopefully that helps with fastball velocity. If he can get his fastball up to that mid 90’s range, which from all accounts he has, then he becomes more than depth pitching.
Hunter Dobbins is another guy who’s starting in AAA who has good stuff he already rushes it up there at 95-97 and has a five pitch starters mix. He was a different pitcher after he implemented that splinker midway through the season but still he is a depth option that has legitimate stuff. He unlike Fitts and Criswell could be more than just a depth starter based on his raw stuff.
We will see what happens but the facts are this farm system is still one of the best in baseball sure it will take a hit when Anthony and Campbell graduate but they will still have Mayer whom I don’t see with the big club until at earliest September and a host of other prospects plus guys like Sandlin and Early who have big upside especially with Early reportedly throwing 95-97 this spring. The point is this isn’t a depleted farm just in your mind KD.
Not impossible that all three of ACM graduate this year. If (when?) Story goes down, they will need a shortstop.
Beyond those three there is a bit of a gap in the system – no high-end talent projected to graduate in 2026. Guys like Sandlin and Garcia and Early are not yet to the top-100 level, and this year will determine whether or not they step up to that.
I don’t mean that as a criticism but an observation. If this second tier of prospects steps up, we could have an exciting farm system next year as well. If they all flop, then the farm system would suddenly be pretty barren. The likely outcome is somewhere in the middle, so I’m not going to presume one extreme or the other.
Wait that’s a sensible take on the farm system and you are right of course it’s probably somewhere in the middle after the graduations of the big three. I tend to be optimistic based on what I see watching a lot of minor league baseball and I may get vested in some of these guys and the reality is not all of them are going to make it. The thing is the quality of the depth in the farm is much higher than it’s been in a long time. Currently there are three really good position players that are close to big league ready and regardless what some think, Mayer is a really good prospect.
KD wth are you talking about? By its very definition a farm system is potential until they show at the big league level. By your definition no one has a good farm system the Mariners who a lot of people think is the best farm in baseball but most of the impact guys are in the lower minors. Just stop you have your opinion you’ve been wrong in the past and I have been wrong as well go live in your roto world I’ll live in the real world.
KD’s take may have had some sense to it but his conclusions and needless attempt at a take down of you bruin did not.
KD’s take makes no sense since prospects are speculative in nature. I could give a rats ass what KD thinks.
The way I look at prospects if you have top guys in the upper minors, the Red Sox have three, those guys are more likely to make it. guys that reach AAA flame out but the flame out percentage is lower for guys that maintain their high prospect status plus reach the upper minors. The lower they are in the minors the higher chance that they flame out, not always but as a rule.
The Red Sox have three very likely big leaguers that most likely will all start in AAA that’s the most likely scenario. I don’t think there is a team in baseball with that have three top 30 prospects one step from the big leagues. As such this a very strong farm system.
The real speculation begins after the big three either matriculate or god forbid regress because they aren’t going to flame out completely in one year. What does Boston have after that? The truth is it’s only speculation at this point what the farm is going to be after the big three. KD thinks it will be terrible among the worst in baseball when the big 2 matriculate. He thinks Mayer is going to flame out and be a dfa candidate in a couple of years and I think he’s nuts Mayer will be a big leaguer and a solid one. I have my suspicions on who will vault up and become top 100 prospects after the big 3 matriculate but it’s only speculation at this time.
There’s a reason for the saying prospects are suspects until they prove themselves in the big leagues. Results do matter in baseball just less in the minor leagues. There is an excellent interview with Justin Willard and in it he talked about the process and getting pitchers to the big leagues. What we don’t know behind the scenes if a player has a weakness that the big club wants you to work on they see as a fatal flaw for the big leagues. An example would be Priester he could probably get good numbers by spamming that plus hammer curve he has but it won’t set him up at the MLB level. Instead Willard and company immediately had him throwing the fastball slider/cutter more. The reason as Willard explained it he’s going to need more velocity and that cutter slider at the next level to be successful. We simply don’t know what guys are working on and the reality making it to the big leagues is all any of these guys want and they seem to be buying in on the development side the team. I think it’s working and we will see a consistent parade of arms and position players in the future and KD thinks they traded all the talent and that Breslow has depleted the farm and Boston will have very little talent after the big three. A difference in opinion that’s all if I’m wrong I will admit it. I thought Jeter Downs would be a good big leaguer and I was wrong. He thought Michael Chavis should get his fair shake at third he was wrong it happens it happens it wasn’t the first and it won’t be the last.
For sure! Old saying, “There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” Partly recognizing the high attrition rate, especially making that final jump to the majors. Partly acknowledging that minor league stats are not especially predictive for pitchers. Keep an eye on home run rates, as THAT has a bit more predictive value. It highlights guys who are tough to barrel.
I’m probably more comfortable with uncertainty than others, as I’m here to understand rather than to prove how smart I am. Tons of uncertainty with prospects, but also a lot of positives to highlight. Up to the prospects and the organization to develop those strengths to achieve major league success.
Wait something to look at with pitching prospects especially as they move up is there swing and miss stuff and ground ball rates imo. This is one of the reasons I like Early so much. His stuff produces swing and miss and his ground ball rates have remained elite at each level he matriculated to as well. I also like to look at walk rates Early has been pretty solid there as well. He also threw 139 innings last year. Based on the observations on Sox Prospects that he’s throwing 95-97 this season I believe he’s likely to skyrocket up the rankings but will be watching closely to make sure his numbers don’t revert. The last piece to that puzzle is fastball velocity will be interesting to see if he can sit at 95 or above.
I mean Wait’s post on the farm system. Not KD’s my mistake bruin,
Huh? I tried to take down Bruin? How? Sometimes I just don’t understand people here, but my apologies if I offended in any way.
Sorry Wait. I didn’t mean you took down Bruin. I see the confusion. I mean to write that I agreed with your point on the farm system. The thing about KD was supposed to be a different point. My apologies on the confusion.
Rafaela took a walk today something he didn’t do in the last month in a half of last season. He can be a star if he can stop chasing he looks physically in great shape obviously did a lot of work this off-season.
It’s not even just that he took the BB but how the PA played out that’s encouraging. He jumped ahead 3-0, took a pitch on 3-0 (obviously a take sign from the dugout), swung at the next pitch and fouled it off for strike 2 and then took a close pitch but not a strike for the BB. Last year a pitch that close to the zone on 3-2 was an automatic swing from him.
Plus a lot of people overlook how demanding mentally last season was for him defensively. He started ocer 70
Oops. Started over 70 games at SS and ober 70 in CF. That’s not easy for anyone to do, especially not a rookie. Being able to simply play CF this year will allow him more mental energy to be devoted to working on his offense.
Ken – I totally agree! Now can you tell Cora that?
This is exactly what I’ve been saying, instead of having players bounce around all over the place just let them focus on one position so they can be really good at it.
That goes for Campbell too, if he makes the team over Grissom and Bregman is at 3B then let Campbell settle into 2B.
Nothing to see here. Bello is sore, but throwing, Abreu has the squirts, Kutter needs rest and Gio is on schedule.
Cedanne hit a big bomb today. Keep that confidence growing.
I have big hopes Rafaela is only going to get better.
swan – Agreed! Maybe Rafaela can be the ST batting champ like Darren Lewis was.
And… here we go again.
They should fix Abreu’s knee, run an outfield of Anthony, Raffaella, and Duran. Use Yoshida as a 4th OF and put Devers as DH. Yoshida rides the bench. That’s an easy fix
Pitching is all about depth, it’s better to find out what the depth pieces have in April than guessing in July and August.
Well Abreu doesn’t have a knee problem Crawford the pitcher does. Abreu has a stomach illness and will be back soon but thanks for praying nonetheless.
“Playing”
Yeah I was high oops….my bad….Anyway Crawford was a 2 WAR pitcher last year so a little better than a depth piece but certainly 2 WAR can be found.
I just can’t remember when since 2019 through last year when have we fielded our intended club, certainly we haven’t in tge last 3 seasons…Injuries are unbelievable for The Redsox. I mean does the medical staff suck? The preparation? Inadequate hydration? Electrolytes? Stretching? Routine? It’s abysmal their track record. Just once I’d like to see 95 to 100% health.
Devers’ shoulder is still hurting… I see some time at DH in my crystal ball.
Whatever you think of his defense, until this year they haven’t had anybody better. Better defensively, maybe, but not with a ML quality bat.
Casas can barely play 1B, he didn’t need chasing. And Dalbec played himself out of the majors on his own.
KD: Dalbec chased himself out of the majors with atrocious strike zone judgement and 40% strike out rate. Casas was even worse defensively at 3B and no one, not even Dumbo thought he’d stay there long term.