The top remaining free agent starter came off the board last night, when right-hander Nick Pivetta agreed with the Padres on a backloaded four-year deal that includes opt outs after the second and third seasons. It’s a major shift from last winter, when top-of-the-market lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery both lingered on the market deep into March and ultimately missed the start of the season while making up for lost Spring Training reps in the minor leagues. This winter, almost all of the top free agents have already landed somewhere as teams begin their first official workouts, with just five of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents of the offseason (and zero of the top 20) still unsigned.
Four of the five remaining free agents in our Top 50 are starting pitchers. None of them compare to Snell and Montgomery’s stature as free agents last winter, or even Pivetta’s stature as the last mid-market arm available in this year’s market. Even so, each is a clearly useful arm who would help the majority of pitching staffs around baseball this year if signed. Which one should pitching-hungry teams be most interested in, however? A look at all four, in the order they appear on the Top 50:
Heaney is entering his age-34 campaign in 2025 in a different position than his previous trips through free agency. He signed with the Dodgers prior to the 2022 season as a bounce-back candidate coming off a disastrous 2021 campaign, and after delivering excellent results for L.A. in 72 2/3 innings he signed a fresh deal with the Rangers as risky but high-upside mid-rotation addition. His performance over two years in Texas didn’t play to that high-risk, high-reward narrative that surrounded his free agency, however, as he performed as a fairly run-of-the-mill back of the rotation arm.
In 307 1/3 innings of work for Texas over the past two years, Heaney pitched to a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His 23.2% strikeout rate during that time is a far cry from not only the incredible 35.5% rate he flashed with the Dodgers, but also 26% clip he struck out opponents at from 2016 to 2021. Heaney has emerged from years of injury questions to serve as a fairly steady source of innings, with his 160 frames in 2024 being the most he’s posted in a season since 2018. There’s some room for upside in the veteran’s profile as well, with gains in walk rate (5.9%) and barrel rate (8.3%) last year suggesting he may be able to improve upon last year’s results.
Entering his age-36 season, Quintana has the most impressive resume of the pitchers discussed here. He’s a former All-Star who delivered front-of-the-rotation production at his peak with the White Sox. While those days are long behind him, he’s remained effective into his mid-30’s. The southpaw signed with the Mets on the heels of a terrific 2022 with the Pirates and Cardinals where he posted a 2.93 ERA with a 2.99 FIP in 32 starts. The results in New York weren’t quite that good, but he was still capable of delivering solid mid- to back-of-the-rotation production in Queens with a 3.70 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.24 FIP in 246 innings of work.
Those results would be valuable in the No. 4 or 5 spot of most rotations, but a look under the hood reveals a somewhat more worrying profile. Quintana has struck out just 18.8% of opponents in each of the past two campaigns. His typically sharp command waned a bit in 2024, with an 8.8% walk rate that clocked in slightly north of average. That left him with the third-worst K-BB% among 58 qualified starters in the majors last year, ahead of only Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. On the other hand, his 47.4% groundball rate was tenth-best, and only six qualified starters allowed line drives at a lower clip. If he can continue those levels of contact management, it’s easy to imagine him having success in front of a strong defense.
Gibson is the prototypical innings eater, a back-of-the-rotation arm who has posted an ERA below 4.00 just three times in his entire career who makes up for that with volume. Besides his half-season as a rookie back in 2013 and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Gibson has made at least 25 starts with at least 147 1/3 innings of work in every single season of his career. He’s averaged just over 30 starts and approximately 175 innings per season in those years. It’s a level of volume that’s hard to find in the the current era of pitching, and any team with instability in their rotation would stand to benefit from plugging Gibson into the mix.
However, Gibson’s status as one of the league’s more reliable arms comes with very limited upside. In 12 years as a big league pitcher, the right-hander has eclipsed 3.0 fWAR just once. He’s also begun to show some minor signs of decline that can’t be entirely ignored headed into his age-37 campaign; his 9.4% walk rate was elevated relative to his career norms, but more concerning was the 9.2% barrel rate he allowed that was tenth-worst among all qualified starters last year. Last year’s 13 quality starts were also the fewest he’s posted in a full season since 2019.
Turnbull stands out among this crowd of veterans as the youngest arm, entering his age-32 campaign this year. The righty also has by far the shortest track record of the four arms discussed here, with just 356 2/3 total innings in the majors under his belt across parts of six big league seasons. Once a promising young rotation prospect with the Tigers, Turnbull’s career was turned upside down by injuries. He hasn’t thrown more than 56 2/3 innings in a single season since 2019.
For all his lack of volume, Turnbull was excellent when healthy for the Phillies last year. He struck out 26.1% of opponents en route to a 2.65 ERA in a swing role, and while his 3.85 FIP and 3.67 SIERA are both less impressive they still paint him as a well above-average pitcher when healthy. Of all the pitchers listed here, Turnbull has the largest injury track record, but he’s also perhaps the best on a rate basis and the likeliest to deliver results that could put him in line for meaningful playoff innings.
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While the four pitchers discussed were the ones who made the cut for MLBTR’s Top 50 back in November, other interesting starters also remain available. Lance Lynn has flashed front-of-the-rotation production at points in his career and had a solid 3.84 ERA in 23 starts last year, but has also struggled badly at times and will pitch his age-38 season this year. Jakob Junis has pitched more out of the bullpen than the rotation in recent years but sports a strong 3.35 ERA in the past two seasons and started 17 games for the Giants in 2022. John Means is clearly quite talented but has only pitched 52 innings across the past three seasons due to multiple arm surgeries. He’ll be sidelined into the summer after UCL surgery last June.
Which of free agency’s remaining starters do MLBTR readers think is the best bet for success in 2025? Have your say in the poll below:
I voted for Quintana, but Gibby is right behind in my opinion. I’m surprised both have not signed yet, both are still viable rotation options.
Every day Mo can’t sign an available 35-year old SP, a cardinal loses its wings.
Turnbull was great last year, but the durability is still a concern.
Turnbull is a great pitcher, he just can’t stay healthy. If you’re a legit contender, it’s Turnbull I’d want pitching in the postseason over any of these other guys who are mostly innings eaters to get you though the season.
Please note: Bauer is unavailable – he signed with the mighty mighty BayBears.
He still a d bag. True
Quintana would be a solid pick-up to round out the back end of anyone’s rotation.
Lynn and a box of donuts gets my vote
Lynn gets my vote too! I read somewhere that he has lost 25 lbs. I think a set up man in the pen makes a lot of sense. He still strikes out a lot of hitters and his multiple fastballs would play well in a set-up role.
Lynn may get your vote but the donuts are all his…ALL OF’EM! Ahahahaha!
John Means would’ve been my pick, but he has the curse of Tommy John.
If i am the Red Sox i stash John Means on the DL.But depending on what you get him for.You get a good trade deadline guy in the end of the year.
Especially if our pitching coaches are what they say they are.
I said Quintana, but if Turnbull could ever stay healthy….
For a contending team, I wouldn’t bother with any of these starters. I’d rather give the youngsters already on my team a shot. They have a much higher ceiling than any of these starters.
For a non-contending team, if you have a need, sure pick any one of them and hope to catch lightning in a bottle so you can flip them at the trade deadline.
For contending teams, I would rather trade for Montgomery as first choice now, and Stroman as second choice because he is so much more expensive of the two.
Monty is getting 22.5 million to Stroman’s 18.5. Stroman only costs more if he reaches his vesting option.
I really wonder if the Yankees will end up trading him in May or so, after he’s been in their pen for a bit and has no chance to reach the 140 IP.
One of these 4 will sign with the Braves soon. They still need rotation depth and should come at a significant discount given that they haven’t signed yet.
I like Lynn the best, as far as floor.
Turn bull, I think, should be turned into a closer. My pick would be Means if he were healthy. So I picked Quintanna. He can help a contender in the back of the rotation.
Go Red Sox’s!
Now put Dever’s at DH, Bergman at 3rd, and a competition at 2nd with the young guns!