12:01pm: President of baseball operations A.J. Preller was asked about the Cease rumors today. “He’s a very big part of our club,” Preller said, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. “The additions the last couple days supplement what’s a really good rotation. That’s our focus here going forward — having that strong rotation.”
10:30am: Rumors have swirled all winter about the Padres trading a starting pitcher such as Dylan Cease or Michael King. Yesterday, they added to the rotation by agreeing to a deal with Nick Pivetta. They made another modest rotation add today by signing lefty Kyle Hart. It would be fair to wonder if those signings were precursors to a trade but Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club is “inclined” to keep their starters and open the season with a rotation of Cease, King, Pivetta and Yu Darvish. That report came out before the Hart signing, though it seems unlikely that such a modest deal would impact the club’s plans for a headline-grabbing deal.
It’s a perfectly logical stance from a roster perspective. The rotation depth has appeared thin all winter. Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery in October, putting a big hole in the starting group. Cease, King and Darvish gave the club a decent three but the depth options all had question marks. Matt Waldron showed some potential in the first half of last year but had an 8.10 ERA in the second half. Guys like Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito had some passable ERAs last year but with middling strikeout rates.
The only reason a trade of Cease or King was even considered was the club’s financial situation. They had spent aggressively for several years but then they hit a wall in 2023. Their TV deal collapsed, putting a dent in revenue. There were plans to scale back spending going into 2024, even before Peter Seidler died, which has led to an ongoing ownership squabble.
The financial squeeze led the Padres to trade Juan Soto and Trent Grisham last offseason for a five-player package. Losing Soto certainly wasn’t ideal but it saved some money and helped add some pitching depth. This winter, the thought was that a similar trade might be necessary, with names like Cease, King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez thrown around as possible candidates. None of those players are as talented or expensive as Soto but the theoretical plan would be similar, to trade one good but pricey impending free agent for several lesser but cheaper and controllable players to patch several roster holes.
Lin’s report now suggests that isn’t likely to come to fruition. He does leave the door open a little bit, suggesting the Friars could be bowled over by an offer from another club, but it seems holding this rotation core is the mostly likely outcome. Assuming the club doesn’t pivot to a trade, they will go into camp with a strong front four and with Hart jumping into a competition for a back-end role alongside Waldron, Vásquez and others. Stephen Kolek is also going to be stretched out to potentially give some extra depth.
Perhaps the club never got a trade offer that they found particularly compelling or perhaps they simply decided to creatively dance around the payroll situation. Trading a starter to improve rotation depth was always going to be a difficult task, so perhaps they thought it better to just address their holes on a budget. In left field, it seems that a platoon of Jason Heyward and Connor Joe is the move. They each got a $1MM guarantee plus bonuses, so the Friars only committed $2MM there.
Elias Díaz got a $3.5MM guarantee to join Luis Campusano behind the plate, but even that modest guarantee was backloaded. Díaz will get a $1.5MM guarantee and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM mutual option. The buyout won’t be due until the end of the season, so it allows the Padres to avoid more than half of that guarantee in the short term.
The Pivetta deal is also significantly backloaded. Though he’s guaranteed $55MM on his four-year deal, he’ll only get $4MM this year, in the form of a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary. The remaining $51MM will be paid out with salaries of $19MM, $14MM and $18MM in the three following seasons, with Pivetta able to opt out after the second and third seasons. Even King’s $7.75MM salary to avoid arbitration helped the club in the short term. That money breaks down as a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and then a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option. Hart’s deal only guarantees him $1.5MM, with $500K of that being a club option buyout.
Because of those creative maneuvers and some other backloaded deals, the Friars have a big gap between their actual payroll and competitive balance tax number. The latter is calculated via the average annual value of contracts, so a guy like Pivetta will have a $13.75MM CBT hit this year, even though he’ll make far less than that in 2025.
RosterResource currently pegs the Friars for a $259MM CBT number but an actual payroll of just $207MM. That payroll is still a big spike from last year but perhaps it’s manageable enough that the club doesn’t have to pivot to trading Cease or King. The CBT number will lead to some taxes, but they will be modest.
The Padres reset their tax status by ducking under the line last year, meaning they would be “first-time” payors if they pay in 2025. That means their base tax rate is 20% on overages. With their current projection, that would lead to a tax bill of just $3.6MM. That’s also not calculated until the end of the season. If things go poorly during 2025, they could flip Cease, King or other players at the deadline, thus lowering their tax bill or ducking under the line completely.
They could also cut down this year’s payroll in the short term in other ways, with Lin suggesting a trade of Suarez is more likely than one involving Cease. Suarez is making $26MM over the next three years, broken down as $10MM this year and $8MM in the final two seasons of his deal. However, he can opt out of his contract after 2025, which will complicate trade talks.
It’s hard to agree on fair trade value when opt-outs are involved. For an acquiring team, they know they will only get one year of Suarez if he performs well. He would only stick around for 2026 and 2027 if he pitches poorly or is hurt. The limited upside and significant downside generally makes clubs unwilling to give up significant talent for such an arrangement.
For clubs still looking for a frontline starter like Cease, they don’t really have other options at this stage of the winter. The free agent market does still have some guys available, such as Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Jakob Junis and others, but they are more mid-rotation or back-end options. Guys like Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery are likely available in trade but they’re also mid-rotation guys at best and coming off difficult seasons.
Teams such as the Mets, Twins, Cubs and Orioles have been connected to Cease but they haven’t been able to get him thus far. Other clubs would be sensible fits. Unless they bowl over the Padres or the Friars are just posturing for leverage, those clubs might have to be patient. They could consider some of the aforementioned mid-rotation options or wait to see if the deadline offers the big rotation upgrade they seek.
Nah, false.
lol. What a waste of brain power went into the Cease trade rumors
They have to do something. They have too many starters now.
No?
No team ever: “We got too many starters.”
What a great problem to have.
Darvish
Cease
King
Pivetta
Hart
Vasquez Brito Waldron have options and start the year in aaa and get called up in the event of injury.
Padres don’t have too many starters. They finally have the correct amount.
Anyone penciling in Waldron and Vasquez was using the hope and prayer argument to defend the rotation. Those guys had to be your depth starters.
Cubs seem to be dodging bullets with no Bregman or trades involving more rentals, I’m sure it’s not from the FO trying to go all in on winning the NL Central. Unfortunately the Cubs are in wait until after 2026 when the salaries they have finally come off the books with all the NTC’s finally gone. Unless for some reason they decide they want to go. That’s unlikely. Even after that it’s not entirely evident that the Cubs will spend to the limit to fight with the Dodgers and Mets. If they’re going to be the perennial tax team, They need a better POBO with a vision of what they want to be. They also need to keep drafting well and trading guys when they are out of arbitration years Ala Tampa Bay. Keep the line moving. Not a guy who chases shiny objects.
@Jbig Though they won 93 games last year with Waldron and Vasquez as no. 4 and 5 guys. Having them as depth pieces now just makes it a better staff than last year
doesn’t pecota have the Cubs winning the Central by 10 games?
You mean same as last year?
No they don’t. Waldron, Brito, and Vasquez are more depth starters than actual MLB caliber lock em in guys. Unless Hart fails completely in ST they’ll give him shot as their no. 5. They are just right now. They can sell off at the deadline if they tank, but right now I think SD stays put and competes.
Nah, Arizona has too many, with the money they’re making. SD doesn’t. Cease, King, Darvish, Pivetta are the only locks. They’ll use the rest for the 5th starter/spot starts. If they had a 6th starter making 20 million like Arizona, then you’d be right.
@cooperhill,
Pivetta might be in the bullpen by June, which would resolve this issue.
Good to hear they want to stay competitive.
That’s always been the message from the FO. But that never stopped the rumors to the contrary.
Good, maybe this will finally put an end to the constant Dylan Cease articles (until the trade deadline at least).
They will never Cease.
Well played Reds
I’ve already heard one guy on the local radio suggest that they will need to dump salary and Pivetta is already on the block. He was signed yesterday and already he’s tossed into the mythical fire sale?
It’s against the CBA to sign a FA and trade him. There’s a time limit on when that can happen. Not sure how long it is but whoever said that is a complete fool.
@Unclemike1526 Mid-June is when they are allowed to trade him. But trading him would still be close to impossible with all the opt-outs.
yes, a fool, probably worked for SI
Fools work everywhere. Especially the WH.
Well looks like padres are ok going past first tax thresholds first time payers again.
They could still move Suarez but that alone doesn’t get them below.
They may as well go for it this year. Cease, King, and Arraez all come off the books this year anyway. Feels like maybe their last legitimate shot for a while, with payroll restrictions and some of the big contracts they’ll still have.
Their bats are going to be a strength for a few more years but that rotation could be ugly after this year.
Think the hope is they can extend king. Musgrove comes back next year, and they *should* have money freed up to spend. I don’t think it’ll be that bad. Especially if they can add some cheap prearb talent to the roster in Salas and LDV.
Be pretty aggressive to see De Vries very early in ‘26.
Pads push them up but I’m not sure he has a defensive position yet and has only played in low A.
ugly how? 2026 Musgrove, Darvish, Pivetta, Hart and $70M off the books to sign 2 more FAs in what will be one of the deepest SP FA years ever.
Brew’88 … not exactly $70M when you factor in the gigantic bumps in salary to Machado next year and in two years, and to Pivetta next year, and to Tatis in a couple years, and not to mention that King will be on payroll next year regardless of whether he’s on the team or not.
@HH Good point. I was speaking to the CBT calculation not payroll
While those guys come off, that will also give them some money to spend next year. Plus Musgrove will be back next year and can replace one of them.
On top of that we will if Salas and DeVries make a leap forward this year.
good for the Padres and their fans. They will be formidable this year, if healthy.
Mahalo Blue, best to you and your squad this year (when we’re not butting heads, of course!)
back at you Gwynning!
If there is a way to pry the now-more-expendable Triston Casas from Boston without giving up Cease or King, Pads should make it happen. BoSox need some insurance at the back of their ‘pen: Robert Suarez, anyone?? Would have to be Suarez ++, but get it done Pads!
They’ll still be able to beat the hell out of the Rockies most days, so it’s all good. Ahahahahaha!
I’m of the opinion that Boston shouldn’t trade Casas yet because they’d be selling low on him after an injury season. Let him establish some value (hopefully) and up the potential return. Or even better, ride his bat to a playoff spot (I can dream).
Casas isn’t expendable. Yoshida is still expendable. Devers, if moving anywhere, should move to DH.
Suarez for Yoshida could be the beginning of a thing…
Maybe but it would require the Sox to eat some money. Padres are on a 1m add streak for salaries.
Rather sign someone like Turner or Martinez to do 1b/Dh with Arráez
Vs lefties put Joe at DH, Lockridge at LF, Turner/Martinez at 1B, Eguy at 2b
cheap + controllable + proven + available-ish big leaguers don’t come around often and it seems like Boston has at least 3 (Wilyer, Kutter, Casas) after the Bregman signing. They also have multiple uber-prospects knocking on the door right now. Just feels like a somewhat rare situation that Preller should jump on in some fashion.
Alternatively, I agree would like to see what JD has left in the tank for a year, plus whatever rubs off on the younger guys from a hitting approach standpoint.
never made sense to me to get rid of cease. but then what do I know? My team only has 6 or 7 starters.
It ultimately comes down to team control. Cease only has one year left until free agency so the Padres have a decision – can they afford to sign him, do they want to trade him for prospects, do they value the comp pick they’d get by offering him the qualifying offer and letting him walk.
In my opinion, I think they should just hold onto him unless they get some insane prospect package offer for him at the trade deadline
They traded for him so let him pitch
Hmmm just like we’ve been saying all Offseason, weird.
But but but but they’re broke!!!! Hahahaha all the clickbait was garbage.
Sincere question though, not from a team assets vs payroll side, but, with the number of guys who should be QO recipients next winter, how long do you ride this roster through the season before pulling the plug and flipping contracts to duck below the CBT line?
It’s a big difference between multiple comp picks after the 2nd round and the same after the 4th.
You have to ride it out if you’re in the playoffs. If they’re 5 games out in July—you gotta sell IMO.
Good point(s) GA, and while I don’t necessarily *know* the answer, I suspect it all depends on the team’s performance. If they’re in the mix for a WC or the Division, then they’ll probably add if need be. The alternative dictates that if they’re “out of the race” then they’ll sell under the CBT. Just a hunch.
The reason that stands out to me is twofold:
1) during our recent years of futility I watched in frustration as a payroll that was just under cbt got pushed over the limit by non-impact roster churn moves and we dropped our QO comp the 2 rounds. It was maddening.
2) long term, it is true. The trio of bogey/machado/tatis will make over $100m combined in a few years. Those aren’t going to be movable for returns of note or easy to free up. The long term success and not winding up in a mini dark age of your own like I’ve watched here since after 2019 is getting some impact prospects to plug holes cheaply.
I’d think the 2025/2026 drafts will be *key* to SD having a pipeline ready in a few years when those contracts balloon, wouldn’t you? You don’t necessarily *need* the extra 2nd rounders vs 4th, but, they also wouldnt hurt
For Preller to sell at the deadline they’re going to have to be way out of it, like 10 games back in the wildcard where the odds are ridiculously long.
In 2015 many thought they should have dealt Justin Upton and again in 2023 with Snell and Hader in particular he kept them all in hope of making the playoffs (they didn’t).
The past few years they have had better record in the 2nd half particularly down the stretch so I think that will be Preller’s mind as well and he’ll be selling that to the higher ups to go for it. When they’re packing the stadium it’s even easier to make that point.
Kicking the can down the road. Pivetta only $4mm this year. Machado contract ballooning in 2027 just in time for further performance decline. It’s almost reckless what Preller is doing. Sure, they stay competitive in the current season and maybe they keep this game going in 2026 with some trimming but they’re handcuffed on roster moves and spending more than they should be. Perhaps Preller is bolting after 2026 season, or gets canned by then.
Why you worried about us when we’re just fine? Maybe concentrate on your own issues?
good point but we don’t have any issues. 🙂 yet.
Good to hear Evan Philips and Michael Kopech are A-OK, Sal. Good luck Champs
Pretty small problems in LA when you added Yates and Scott.
Barely feel that. Unreal that’s a true statement but…..
Phillips & Kopech are minor problems. And good luck to you
Not worried about the Padres at all. Just pointing out what is obvious. That the Padres are stuck based on Preller’s past moves. Pivetta only $4mm this year is a typical Preller who cares if this bites us later, I may not even be around then move.
Or maybe it’s just a great deal for an arm with the talent of a Pivetta?
Go Pads
Padres have 70m coming off the books next year and have Musgrove back. Paying Pivetta isn’t an issue.
The only question is does paying Pivetta mean they definitely will not be paying King next year? They haven’t put much on the payroll for this year but managed to add 4 ML’ers.
Which was necessary
Coming off the books is only helpful if it’s dead weight. You do realize that you’ll need to spend more to get same level of play on the field for King/Cease replacements.
You mean like 11 starting pitchers that didn’t make it through more than 22 starts in the majors last season?
AJP was patient and driving media crazy until this past week, inciting the masses to claim a fire sale was happening. Now he signs a few guys and it’s “wreckless” spending. lol
Recent signings are nothing compared to what’s already been done. Pivetta structure is interesting that’s all. The recklessness was mostly done. These signings are the byproducts of that. Having to backend that Pivetta contract because they’re fully tapped out. Taking out loans in the past to cover payroll. Trading away most of your prospects. There is positioning to win now but Preller went beyond that IMO.
Braves need to step up and trade the garbage they have in the minors.
for what? someone elses garbage?
They say that, ‘Variety is the spice of life!’
Preller is an animal. Totally lengthened that rotation at the eleventh hour. That rotation looks much better now.
“Too many starters”
My prayers and best wishes go out to MLBTR who must now figure out what to post about now that that rumor has been put to bed..
And the Padre fans can finally unbunch their panties.
Sorry, floppy…I go commando. Underwear is for the weak!
No you don’t. The evidence of your comments indicates otherwise. It’s all frills and lace with HiredGun. Good luck with your next little b&tchy internet campaign !
Hahahaha…thanks for being a groupie.
Oh you big tough anti establishment independent thinking rebel. You got me with groupie. Too good,mate.
Except for Tow I think it’s more the SD haters that need to I bunch more so than the fans. I’ve seen a great deal of fans saying “where is the budget cut”, etc. defending all of these unfounded rumors.
Good ol’ Tow, I wonder if they are smiling right now because of all the recent activity
We who actually follow the Padres and knew they we’rent broke are commando-mooning guys like foppsy now. Fun times.
Suarez is SURE to be traded now. And Arraez. And Crone. LMAO.
This clearly means Tatis is goners
They reportedly asked Stearns for their 2 top prospects +, which is a ridiculous ask for a rental.
Which should tell you neither was ever really available
Nick
I don’t see that.
They wanted a haul but didn’t get it, so they packed it up and will revisit if they are bowing out of playoffs or at deadline.
They need to fire sale if this doesn’t work out by the deadline though.
Absolutely cannot miss the playoffs and be a lux tax payor. Won’t get decent comp back for King and Cease in the offseason and will be penalized heavily to sign anyone else’s QO free agents.
@jbig Not a fire sale, just common sense. If they’re 10 games out of contention at TD then it’s smart to retool the team for 2026 and beyond by trading rentals Cease, Suarez, Arraez. That’s what GMs do.
Let the mental gymnastic start below Nick. People will try to say “No, the Padres really want to trade those guys blah, blah, blah…”
Tip of the hat to AJ Preller, who is apparently the only PBO out there that realizes that a 3rd round pick turning into Nick Pivetta would be reason for jumping jacks and raises to everyone directly involved in scouting him
Different penalties for different clubs. I like Pivetta but didn’t want the O’s to give up the 34th pick in the draft to sign him.
They wouldn’t have because they weren’t over the tax line last year.
O’s have to give up their 3rd highest pick which is a comp A 1st rounder after Burnes and Santander walked.
Sign Pivetta, lose a pick. Trade for Cease, gain a pick. It’s your choice.
Both king & cease will be mets 2026
Wow, you don’t say. So much for that fire sale…
Ok now with this report, I expect to see both traded by the end of the day!
Really, I hope I see both still in camp when I show up to Peoria on 3/3!
@LT. Say hi to Leodalis for me!
Will do – last year I showed up the first day he hit the practice field. He was impressive for a kid that age for sure. I’m just curious how a scout knows what a 16 year old is supposed to be at 22. I’m only good enough to say “he is a lot better than the other 16 year olds!”
I can’t wait to see him play this year (will go to some of his games). Unfortunately I won’t make it to Peoria though.
Padres added Pivetta, and aren’t moving King or Cease. So much for the Padres being constrained financially as these writers kept paying…
It’s a really weird one and then the rumors went into overdrive after the control person lawsuit. Some writers will ignore the Preller quotes today and keep up with their drivel.
I started counting. At one point there was a run of 13 “Cease will be traded” articles in 13 days in mlbtr alone
They did structure the Pivetta deal so that they’re paying him just $1M this year for his base salary so they definitely have some sort of financial constraints they are working with. It seems like they’re not focused on the CBT though, they just care about cash payroll for 2025
Herc, the Padres have $70 million coming off their CBT payroll in 2026 including $12.2 million in 2025 payroll and $17.2 million in CBT payroll that is there for Hosmer.
Paying Pivetta $4 million, a $3 million signing bonus and $1 million salary, in 2025 makes sense as long as he was willing to accept it and he was.
@Herc33 If you’re suggesting that the Padres may have cashflow issues, then why sign him at all while providing them a higher tax bill at year’s end to pay and also lost draft picks? If Pivetta opt-outs in two years, his CBT hit will be $11.5MM AAV each in ’25 and ’26.
I don’t think it had much to do with payroll limitations as much as needing clarity with who would be in charge and what direction they wanted to go.
Preller made a few nice moves after the question got answered.
I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.
What a wimpy comment.
I like what the Padres did considering their situation. The wheels are going to fall off after 2025 but they are giving themselves one more shot.
They’re actually building towards 2026 when they have largely the same lineup and have more payroll flexibility, not the opposite.
Always fun seeing a team push their chips in (when it’s one of the teams without an infinite supply of chips, at least)
As usual, it depends on what a team offers. For example, if Baltimore offers Kjerstad, Kremer and Povich or someone even more intriguing, then they might have to think about beyond this season. They won’t switch for someone who will be much less effective than Cease or King unless it’s multiple guys with alotta upside. Especially considering that it looks like ownership said, “All this press about us being a cheap train wreck of a family hurts my feelings. I’ll ok you to sign Pivetta”, apparently. Seems like it’s something like that considering they passed on everyone but him.
That’s a lot of mental gymnastics. Is it so hard to take things for face value that the Padres want to compete this season? Signing Pivetta cost the Padres draft picks so now they should trade Cease for prospects? There’s no indication that the O’s even want him based on their activities this offseason.
Nice.
Go Pads!!
They have been saying the same things all offseason but the rumors persisted.
Will the rumors about Cease and King being traded stop now? I doubt it. Padres rumors drive traffic.
It’s the “just who do they think they are trying to be good” type rumors that bait
Too bad Tatis, Jr. has a NTC through 2028. Who’s next?
Padres will also be keeping JOE KING !!