Feb. 17: Pivetta passed his physical and has reported to Padres camp. The team has formally announced his four-year contract.
Feb. 12: The Padres are reportedly in agreement with Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year, $55MM deal. The CAA client receives a $3MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary for the upcoming season. He’s guaranteed $19MM, $14MM, and $18MM salaries over the following three seasons and can opt out after the contract after the second and third years. While the salary structure helps the Padres navigate short-term payroll constraints, the $13.75MM average annual value counts evenly against the team’s luxury tax calculation. The deal is pending a physical and has not been officially announced by the Padres, who have two openings on their 40-man roster.
Pivetta, who’ll celebrate his 32rd birthday on Friday, was the best unsigned starting pitcher. He had declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the Red Sox at the beginning of the offseason. That was a bit of a surprising decision that presumably played a role in holding up his market into Spring Training. He finds a multi-year deal with a much greater overall guarantee than he would have received had he accepted the QO, though he’s taking a notable pay cut for the upcoming season in the process.
The 6’5″ righty debuted with the Phillies in 2017. He struggled for most of his four-year tenure in Philadelphia. A 2020 deadline trade sending him to Boston turned his career around. Pivetta has been a mid-rotation workhorse over the last four years. He ranks 23rd in MLB with 623 innings since the start of the 2021 season. He owns a cumulative 4.33 earned run average and has allowed an ERA between 4.04 and 4.56 in each season.
Pivetta was a fixture in Alex Cora’s rotation over his first two seasons in Boston. He remained in that role early in the ’23 campaign, but the Sox kicked him to the bullpen in the middle of May. Pivetta was sitting on a 6.30 ERA over his first eight starts of the season. He had a fantastic turnaround in a long relief capacity. Pivetta allowed 1.98 earned runs per nine with an exceptional 36.9% strikeout rate over his first 17 relief appearances. Boston gradually stretched him back out to a rotation workload as the season progressed, putting him back in the starting five entering last season.
A flexor strain in his elbow sent him to the injured list in early April. That was remarkably the first non-virus IL stint of his nearly seven-year MLB career. Pivetta returned no worse for wear a month later and stayed heathy from May onwards. He wound up taking the ball 27 times and worked to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings.
Pivetta’s run prevention numbers are those of a league average starter. That alone would be a significant boost to a San Diego rotation that needs reliable back-end innings. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk profile has been more intriguing than the bottom line results. He punched out 28.9% of opposing hitters against a modest 6.1% walk rate last season. That was the third season of the past four years in which he has posted a well above-average strikeout rate.
However, the swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by longstanding issues keeping the ball in the park. Pivetta has allowed a higher than average home run rate in every season of his MLB career. He gives up a lot of hard contact. While Statcast’s park factors grade Fenway Park as one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly venues overall, it has played around neutral for home runs over the past few seasons. Petco Park has been around average for home runs as well, though it broadly plays more favorably for pitchers.
Pivetta slots fourth on Mike Shildt’s rotation depth chart for the moment. He’s behind Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in what had been a very top-heavy rotation. It’s a lot more balanced now, as Pivetta can provide innings that San Diego lost when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery last fall. That’d leave one spot up for grabs among the likes of Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron and potential reliever conversion candidates Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek.
That’d only be the case if there are no other moves before Opening Day. The Padres have been hamstrung all offseason by payroll restrictions. It’s the second straight winter in which the front office has had limited financial leeway. They’ve inked a trio of cheap one-year deals to plug holes at catcher and left field. They signed Elias Díaz for $3.5MM to start behind the plate while bringing in Connor Joe and Jason Heyward for a left field platoon at a combined $2MM cost.
Pivetta won’t make much more than that in year one. The bigger ramifications are from a luxury tax perspective. The Padres snuck below the tax line in 2024. They’ve seemingly preferred to do so again this offseason. The Padres had projected narrowly above this year’s $241MM base threshold. Pivetta pushes them close to the second tax tier. RosterResource calculates their tax number around $258MM. The actual fees are relatively small. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM. They’ll pay a $2.75MM tax on the Pivetta deal and are currently lined up for about $3.4MM in taxes overall.
While ownership may simply be willing to live with that relatively small tax bill, the front office could consider payroll-clearing trades in the coming weeks. Cease, who has a $13.75MM tax number himself for his final arbitration season, has been in trade rumors all offseason. King ($7.75MM) has been the subject of lesser trade chatter, while Robert Suarez and Luis Arraez have also been speculated about. Trading Cease or King would again raise questions about the rotation’s stability, though any such deal would almost certainly include at least one affordable MLB rotation piece in the return package.
The money isn’t the only cost for San Diego. They’ll surrender their second-round pick (#64 overall) in the upcoming draft, as well as $500K from their 2026 bonus pool for international amateurs, because Pivetta had declined the qualifying offer. The Red Sox get a compensation pick in the ’25 draft, which will land 77th overall.
Pivetta winds up being the only free agent starter of this offseason to sign a four-year deal. Michael Wacha, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino each signed for three years but pulled higher annual values. All but Wacha landed a larger overall guarantee. Severino and Manaea had also declined qualifying offers, while Wacha would have received one had he not re-signed with Kansas City just before QO decisions were due. Pivetta will collect $23MM over the next two seasons. His opt-out decisions will come when there are two years at $32MM and (if he doesn’t take the first out) one year at $18MM remaining.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan was first to report the signing and the salary breakdown. Image courtesy of Imagn.
Good deal for both sides.
Agreed. He could have rolled the dice, accepted the QO, but based on his overall career, he made the right choice. $55MM guaranteed is better than $20MM guaranteed in the injured world of MLB pitchers.
The article says slots forth for Bob Melvin’s padres..//
It’s easy to mess up when ChatGPT writes the article. (It still thinks Tom Brady is playing for the Pats)
That would be a Giant mistake!
And just in the Nick of time
“Nick Pivetta’s deal with the Padres has opt-outs after Year 2 and Year 3. The deal will pay him a $3 million signing bonus and $1 million salary in 2025, $19 million in 2026, $14 million in 2027 and $18 million in 2028.”
-Jeff Passan
Now, that’s what I’m talking about!
Good move AJ and thank you Seidlers!
Expanding the roster a bit.
Maybe a Cease trade happens but you feel more comfortable with the rotation.
I’m happy for you towin
Be patient, tow. Every time with you! Cheers matey
You were impatient weren’t you…
Cease is gone for a cheaper MLB ready and controllable starting pitcher, and other positional prospect. I could see the Mets sending Brett Baty, Kevin Parada and a pitcher (Dom Hamel, Nolan McLean or Blade Tidwell) to the Padres for Cease. Or the Orioles for Dylan Beavers and Patrick Reilly or Brandon Young.
Not guaranteed. The actual cost of exceeding the first level of the lux tax is relatively small. For small market teams playing with the big boys, maybe that’s the best they can do. One year, under, the next year over, etc. so they don’t get cuffed around too badly by a MLB front office who likes to reward the big market teams and punish the small market ones, in every decision they make.
Anyhow, Hosmer will be off the payroll by next season. Some money will free up. What the Padres really need is another Jackson Merrill equivalent to pop up for the next 3-4 seasons, to reduce the payroll pressure. A pitcher for the next guys. Lots of things could break their way. Salas could have a come back year to make him MLB ready, while Campusano reaches something closer to his original projection, providing trade value one way or another. I definitely see the farm system taking a step forward, maybe not to a top level in one year, but maybe mid-tier as the prospects develop.
Static analysis is the problem for most baseball fans. Stuff changes, and Pad fans saw that last year. Projections were God-awful for 2024, and AJP pulled off some unthinkable moves that paid off.
I don’t see Cease as gone. Wouldn’t surprise me, but I think he’s more valuable at the trade deadline. The Pads could use him the first half, then get more for him at the deadline than teams are willing to consider now. Or, keep him and eat the costs if the Padres are flying towards the post season.
No, teams are not going to offer more for Cease at the deadline when he only has 1/3 as much club control remaining as he does now and they don’t receive the right to extend him a QO. Also, selling at the deadline is not how Preller typically chooses to operate. While it’s possible if the team is clearly out of the race, I find it much more likely that they either trade him before opening day or ride out the season with him and then tag him with the QO.
I agree with the goose.
They will either trade him now or only if they are out of it.
I don’t see him being moved because of the asking price. It’s been so high that it didn’t seem they wanted to move him. Suarez is a possibility to be moved if they want to lower payroll a bit. Doesn’t get them under the tax so he may not be very likely either.
Horrible deal for the padres
Orioles it’s Heston Kjerstad, Brandon Young, and some filler
Mets it’s Jett Williams, Blade Tidwell, and filler
Cost for cease is around the cost for Burnes
He hasn’t sold at the deadline because they have usually been in contention and are buyers.
But he has landed pieces from selling at the deadline before they were regular contenders, the biggest being trading James Shields at the deadline to the White Sox for Fernando Tatis Jr.
If they decide to keep King and Cease and make a run this season but find themselves out of contention at the deadline, he 100% would trade them.
If they deem themselves out of contention, and don’t want to extend, then they’d be foolish not to trade Cease, Suarez, Arraez, King at TD.
@RodBecksBurnerAccount He should have sold at the deadline (at least on the pending free agents) in every season except 2022 and 2024.
Shields-for-Tatis didn’t happen at the deadline.
He didn’t trade Snell and Hader a year and a half ago when the Padres were out of contention at the deadline.
@Brew88 Again, they didn’t trade Snell and Hader at the deadline two seasons ago.
Shields-for-Tatis trade happened on June 4, 2016–a few weeks before the deadline (not in the off=season as you contended.
They were trying to extend Hader and Snell.
And I’ll just have to disagree with you that he should have sold “every season except 2022 and 2024.” That’s just ludicrous on its face as they wouldn’t have contended in 2022 and 2024 if they had sold out at every deadline. They also had a 0.617 winning percentage in 2020 to remind you. Should they have sold at the deadline then? Also this is the first time I’ve seen someone complain that AJ Preller doesn’t trade enough. He trades more than the majority of GMs
@Goose They absolutely would have if they were 10 games out of contention. And I don’t believe they will trade guys this year at the deadline unless completely out of contention.
Trades yea what does he have to show for over 10 years? Winning 1 game in a LCS?
@RodBecksBurnerAccount It happened nearly 2 months before the deadline.
They clearly weren’t trying all that hard. They didn’t even talk to either of their reps the following offseason. And they could have signed them even if they had traded them, if they wanted to.
I said they should have sold in every season except 2022 and 2024 AT LEAST ON THE PENDING FREE AGENTS Einstein. That would not have affected their ability to contend in those years because the guys they were trading away would be guys they were about to lose anyway.
The Padres got off to a hot start in 2020 but were already starting to slow down before the regular season ended. And the trades he made at that deadline have gone down as some of the worst of the entire Preller era.
@RodBecksBurnerAccount Still waiting for your explanation on how trading the pending free agents at every trade deadline except 2022 and 2024 would have stopped the Padres from contending in those years.
Lol what a coward RodBecksBurnerAccount is.
Trading the pending free agents at the deadline only negatively affects your chances of contending THAT YEAR. Not in all the years after it. And Shields-for-Tatis was in 2016 so even if we count that as a deadline trade it doesn’t contradict my original statement that A. J. Preller has only ever been a major deadline seller in 2016.
When you are forced to use phrases like “comfortable with the rotation”…well…they’re in a race to the bottom with the Pet Rocks.
What an odd contract. Pivetta declining the QO is an incredible fumble.
Maybe he really doesn’t like Boston.
Or He wanted years and money. Good deal for him.
I think he established the contrary over his time here
Lucky – Absolutely correct. The guarantee of $55 million for 4 years vs. 1 year for $21 million is a no brainer for a pitcher at 32 years old!!
San Diego’s nightly fog and heavy air will play well for a guy who gives up HRs at a healthy clip. I live 35 mile north of the bark park in San Diego, and the fog rolls in nightly close to half the year. The air is wet and heavy. It will be perfect for Pivetta to have a break out year!
Tough place to pitch
I disagree! With Pivetta’s pitch mix he should thrive there.
Not at all. He just secured $34M more than if he had accepted the QO, meaning he’s very much set for life. If he does very well over the next two years, he can re-enter the market and get an even better deal; anything less than that and he can sit on this, happily.
Had he taken the QO, there’s no telling what his market would have been a year from now. Maybe he never would have seen another $10M total beyond that money. As he likely expected, he turned down the potential for more total at greater risk to secure the bag now.
Red – Injury concerns probably factored into his decision too.
Pivetta, unless he was drastically worse or hurt in 2025, would’ve been able to enter next offseason without the QO and landed something in Wacha range (3yrs/$51M). Even if he failed to get that high, he would’ve likely gotten a Cobb/Verlander type $15M deal which means 2yrs/$36M across two years and only needing 2yrs/$19M to break even which is minimal amounts for a starter.
Nope. As I noted above, he just protected himself from injury and/or significant decline. He’s guaranteed to bank no less than $55MM compared to the $20MM QO and he can still opt out without a QO attached. He’s not a stud pitcher who can delay his fortune by one year. He just locked in his fortune.
It’s a 2 year delay which is the big change. It’ll be interesting to see how Nick Martinez does next year after being the other surprise QO receiver. I think he will end up significantly out earning Pivetta with a 3yr/$45M type deal next year which would put him at 4yr/$65M compared to Pivetta 4yr/$56M over the life of their deals.
He got paid generational money in any event.
How’s he gonna get by on only $1MM? That’s like winning the lottery for most of us.
How? He got 35 million more dollars guaranteed, I’d take that security. Plus he has the upside of the opt outs if he wants.
Kjerstad, a- prospect & Rogers to padres for Cease; book it!
He just got $55 million. That’s $34 million more than the QO.
Seems like Pivetta made the right decision. He got an incredible deal. $55 million is significantly more than $21 million. Plus he gets opt outs if he pitches really well.
Tells me that Pivetta at age 32 is thinking about the near future. He’s stashing away back of the contract money that’s a guaranteed retirement plan. Twice the money over four years? Why not, if he intends to retire at age 36.
Sweet deal for the Friars
Very nice signing for the pads! Only bad part is if they don’t win it all and watch cease and king leave for a late 4th rounder next year.
Big SP FA class next year, and tons of money off the books for Pads. And Musgrove back. So they can retool
Starting Pitchers
Tyler Anderson (36)
Chris Bassitt (37)
Shane Bieber (31) – $16MM player option with a $4MM buyout
Paul Blackburn (32)
JT Brubaker (32)
Walker Buehler (31)
Griffin Canning (30)
Carlos Carrasco (39)
Dylan Cease (30)
Aaron Civale (31)
Alex Cobb (38)
Nestor Cortes (31)
Zach Eflin (32)
Erick Fedde (33)
Jack Flaherty (30) – can opt out of remaining one year, $10MM
Zac Gallen (30)
Lucas Giolito (30) – $14MM club option (becomes $19MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout if he pitches 140 innings in 2025)
Austin Gomber (32)
Jon Gray (34)
Kyle Hendricks (36)
Dakota Hudson (31)
Shota Imanaga (32) – $57MM club option for 2026-28 or $15MM player option for 2026
Merrill Kelly (37)
Clayton Kershaw (38)
Michael King (31)
Zack Littell (30)
Michael Lorenzen (34)
Joey Lucchesi (33)
Seth Lugo (36) – $15MM player option
Kenta Maeda (38)
Tyler Mahle (31)
German Marquez (31)
Nick Martinez (35)
Steven Matz (35)
Dustin May (28)
Miles Mikolas (37)
Wade Miley (39)
Frankie Montas (33) – can opt out of remaining one year and $17MM
Jordan Montgomery (33)
Charlie Morton (42)
Chris Paddack (30)
Freddy Peralta (30) – $8MM club option with no buyout
Martin Perez (35)
Cal Quantrill (31)
Colin Rea (35)
Chris Sale (37) – $18MM club option
Max Scherzer (41)
Michael Soroka (28)
Marcus Stroman (35) – $18MM player option with 140 innings pitched
Ranger Suarez (30)
Tomoyuki Sugano (36)
Framber Valdez (32)
Justin Verlander (43)
Brandon Woodruff (32) – $20MM mutual option with a $10MM buyout
Valdez, King, Cease and Gallen look like the class of the field. Milwaukee will probably pick up the 8 mil on Peralta and Atlanta with the 18 mil on Sale as long as he doesn’t revert back to being hurt constantly this season. Imanaga will be back with the Cubs probably, too.
Awesome. People will still find something negative to say, but oh well. Let’s go SD!
Now – Yeah I said Pivetta to Padres just a few days ago, and I was told “No they can’t afford him”. Yeah, right.
This is a great deal for the Padres, with good cash flow implications this year. I wish him the best.
Yeah this is a great deal for San Diego. The past two years he has a 1.12 WHIP & a whopping 11 k’s per 9. Can always count on Preller to get creative with the contracts and the opt outs. This would could be a huge bargain if it ends up being 2/23m and he’s putting up 3+ win seasons.
Can’t wait to see what Niebla can do with this one!
I am curious to see who could be the next prospect to make it.
Tirso Ornelas could be that guy if the Manager finds him at least 350 Abs in ’25.
SS DeVries and Catcher Salas in 2026.
Padres also have a few young pitchers who are potential “break out candidates”.
padres.mlblogs.com/tirso-ornelas-hitting-379-with-…
Padres fans are panicking right now wondering where this money came from
Just kidding they will trade him after this year like the rays Tyler glasnow extension
The deal being backloaded, along with the opt-outs, are going to make Pivetta a difficult player to move.
Impossible*
Not necessarily. He’ll have 3 years 51MM remaining which is exactly what Wacha just got.
toptimrubies. First off, teams don’t like the uncertainty of opt-outs. at least as a trade target. Opt-outs are a necessary evil to get players to sign, because players like them, but they complicate any attempt to trade.
If some team does trade for him and he’s good, he opts out. If he stinks he opts in. They don’t know if they’re getting good production as a rental, or 2+ seasons of over-priced production.
If he signed for $4/55M, why is 3/$51 okay? SD can negate that by kicking in money to move him, but there’s still the uncertainty from the opt-outs. Not easy.
True, the opt-outs definitely complicate it, but I was responding to LFGSD619 calling it impossible* to move.
Reminder, Cobb just got $15MM after missing a season, and Boyd got $29/2 after missing much of his career. He’ll be tradeable.
Padres are losing King and Cease after the season. If both players post similar results they’re gonna price themselves out of SD.
Pivetta isn’t going anywhere for at least 2 years.
So thinking about trading him is a moot point cause at end of year 2 he either opts in for year 3 or doesn’t.
If he opts in for year 3 he’s either easy to move cause it’s 14 mill and an option for 18 mill for the 4th year. Acquiring a pitcher on a 2 year 32 mill deal if he’s performing is pretty easy to move. You may not get tons of value back cause of the option year but it’s an easy contract to move.
If Pivetta isn’t doing well padres might as well ride out the last 2 years and try him as a pen piece to squeeze value out of the contract.
stymeedone, It isn’t just about the money. Cobb and Boyd don’t have opt-outs. They’re one year deals with no complications. Teams like that.
Easy as 1 2 3, “Pivetta isn’t going anywhere for at least 2 years.”
He can’t opt out until the second year, but SD could trade him before that, so he could be going somewhere.
Knowing the ramifications, it’s one thing to give a guy a deal with opt-outs, but it’s another thing when trying to trade. How much does another team gauge what to trade for a deal with so much uncertainty for what they’re getting?
Look what the Cubs needed to do to move Bellinger. They traded him with cash for a replacement level pitcher, plus a minimum of $5M, to as much as $10M to pay part of his salary/buyout.
Everyone knows the Yankees want to trade Stroman, but because of the uncertainty of his deal, they’re having trouble doing that. I’m not saying Pivetta is completely untradeable, but it won’t be easy if they want to.
He’s not going anywhere for 2 years
Like I said. They’re set to lose King and Cease. They signed Pivetta to this deal knowing next off season they were gonna need to probably replace 1 if not both. Signing Pivetta means they replaced at least 1 for 2026. So heading into the off season they’ll need to find one more starter
They’re not gonna sign Pivetta for one year. Trade him. And then need to find 2 starters for 2026. That doesn’t make sense now does it.
Hes a padre for 2 years. Even if they tank Pivetta will be least likely to go.
Only way they trade him after one season is if he goes out and wins the cy young and his value increases around the league. Highly unlikely that happens so he’s a padre for 2 years simply because
They need him for 2026
They need guys to give them innings if they trade cease or king at deadline
It’s now rumored that SD will keep both Cease and King. That changes everything if they do.
For 2025, this season
Not for 2026, next season
King and cease are free agents at the end of the season and if they stay the entire year padres will issue them a QO.
They’ll sign somewhere else for 2026
I think cease gets 30 a year 7 or 8 years
I think king can get 22.5 a year for 5 or 6
The 2025 rotation is shaping up to be
Darvish Cease King Pivetta and a 5th starter
2026 is looking like
Darvish Musgrove Pivetta and some guys to fill out the 4th/5th spot
Padres will be getting Musgrove back in ’26, Yu Darvish will be back,
Arraez, Cease and possibly Suarez will be gone either by trade or free agency
Padres have some young starters that will be getting some experience at the back of the rotation and also money freed up from lower payroll, plus probably more trades coming in ’25 or ’26.
Preller will make moves and signings to keep the rotation filled up.
Easy as 1 2 3, You’re missing my point. I responded to a post saying that the Padres will trade Pivetta. My point was that Pivetta would difficult to trade with the backloaded deal, and the opt outs. I don’t know whether he’ll be traded or not. All I know is, with that deal, trading him will be difficult.
Good points. But, with Preller and some GMs, they will find ways to trade guys if they need to. They just signed Kyle Hart who won the S Korean version of the Cy Young. So,they have options moving forward even if they lose both King and Cease..
So it’s a 2/23 at minimum
Pretty decent value for the padres.
I pushed for 3/$30MM in previous posts, but yeah I’m stoked!
It’ll be 4/$55 because I doubt he opts out.
Bucket – I agree 100%. SD is the perfect spot for Pivetta, because his K-rate is excellent, as is his low bases on balls, and WHIP. Those three stats were ace in 2024 until you see 1.7 HRs per 9 innings, which torched his results. That is the main thing that has held him back from being a solid #2 starter. In SD I would not be surprised to see his HR rate fall to around 1.0 per 9 making his ERA closer to 3.00. That would make Pivetta’s contract a steal for SD. I do not think Pivetta opts out considering the problem he has with HRs. The only park that might be better for him is Seattle.
Do you think hr/9 factors in to his decision more than $/year?
He really hasn’t made much in his career, this is probably going to be his big contract.
@ Now Yu
Okay, I’ll give it a shot, it’s an egregious contract, Pivetta is a hack & a clown & fits better in the circus than on an MLB mound. Nonsense, foolishness & stupidly are words that immediately leap to mind, Preller should not only be fired he should be institutionalized before he’s able to piss away more of San Diego’s resources. They’ll be regretting this albatross of a contract for years to come. Pathetic! How’s that, if you want I could punch it up a little, just let me know. Ahahahahahaha!
All offseason Padres fans complaining & whining & crying
I dont wanna hear another word
Trade incoming …maybe King?
Nope. Cease will get traded..King will be easier to re-up!
Neither. In it to win it, gents. We need ’em!
Only gonna cost SD $4 mil for 2025….they wouldn’t have structured it this way if they still “had” To trade Cease…at least not until the deadline if out of it.
100% Mister Padre, RIP Coach Tony
I think if anyone, it’s Suarez or Arraez . They’ll stand fast with this rotation.
Passan wrote about it yesterday for espn. Pivetta to Padres allows a Cease or King trade. Cease more likely. Possibly coincidence, possibly in the know.
9nly if they get another starter in return, younger more controllable guy.
Most likely Cease and or Suarez.
OR Cease and Wandy Peralta
(could get them under the luxury tax
and get them another hitter and rotation depth). .
Nice pickup! What a weird deal.
Super weird, 2 opt outs and a long guarantee for a guy with an average era in the low 4’s. Pitching in the AL east though, so maybe turns out to be brilliant?
Don’t read too much into that ERA… the infield in Boston was BRUTAL behind him with a series of guys who should have their gloves taken away. Add the monster to that and a season of Yoshida in the corner not helping things either…
I wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see some bounce for him in the future, although nothing in baseball is guaranteed as he is getting older.
They are taking the glove away from one of them. Devers to DH with the signing of Bregman to a $40 million AAV deal.
Reminds me of some of those Tigers teams that had 4-5 DHs and played like beer league softball teams
Wow! Good for Nick. I liked him in Boston, and I kinda felt that Breslow gave him a raw deal with that QO. I’m glad he found a solid contract elsewhere.
How is offering someone $21M giving them a raw deal?
I think , in his shoes, I was taking the QO and banking the $21M
That was for 1 season. ! I am glad he got acceptable contract from SD, which needed decent pitching at a bargain rate. Good, unusual compromise
@westcasey. Petco will help his numbers out, and I’m guessing it was the only offer. They still might be able to trade him, like the giants did soler or it’s a 2/22 deal That softens the blow if they decide to sell off cease and king at the TDL
West – Most projected him at least $45M/3yrs which is a lot better than $21M/1yr.
He just got greedy after the Severino deal.
@fpg. Severino got paid because the a’s needed to spend money. He might’ve had deals earlier and got squeeze out because Cobb got 15.
Giving a player a QO is never a raw deal. No one forced Nick to decline it.
Good for the Sox good for the padres
Great deal for the Sox.
The Red Sox get the 77th pick in the draft for Pivetta signing and replaced him with Walker Buehler. Nice work by Brealow! I hope Pivetta does very well in San Diego. He is a bulldog and will take the ball every 5 days for you.
Dorothy – In the last 20 years Boston has had 4 compensation picks:
Roman Anthony
Kristian Campbell
Michael Kopech
Blaze Jordan.
That is a really good track record…
10 years*
Incredibly good.
For Chaim Bloom…
*hat tip*
Makes you wonder if now knowing the comp pick is in the bank breslow makes more of a push for bregman as losing the 2nd rounder hurts less.
They just signed Breggy! Hearing 3/$120MM
Wow, Pivetta really ought to fire his agent for this one. Clearly should have accepted the QO.
The pick attached hurt him but still walks away with 55 guaranteed.
Why? He’s turning 32 in a few days and turned down $21M for $55M and has a chance to opt-out after two years. If he doesn’t, he’s getting $34M more. He’s only made $16.6M thus far in his career.
Very unlikely he opts out. He’ll be 34 and need to beat 2/$32m.
He can easily beat 2/32 in today’s market that if he’s performs like a decent #3/4 over the next two years.
In Petco. Even if he pitches well, most will believe it’s due to the park. He got his guarantee . Good for all involved.
That happens all the time. One good year in San Diego and he almost certainly tops the rest of that guarantee.
Petco isn’t the dead ball cavern it used to be, moved the wall plus climate change
Homers are up, sure. Petco’s still absolutely a big pitcher’s park. Its park factors for home runs are still barely above neutral and it is still the second most pitcher-friendly park by Park Factor the last 3 years.
He’s struggled with keeping the ball in the yard his whole career. While Fenway hasn’t been playing as a particularly homer-prone park in recent years, it is an extreme environment for doubles, triples, and run scoring generally. So when Pivetta got tagged at Fenway it’s more likely to be a back breaker with runners on base. The way Petco has been playing for offense, yeah his homer number probably doesn’t meaningfully go down, but they’re also more likely to be solo shots and thus stuff you can survive.
He’ll also probably get to pitch a few times in San Fran and Arizona. San Fran is the least homer-prone park in the league by a decent margin, and Arizona is in the bottom 10. Fewer games at Rogers Centre and Yankee Stadium and more games at Oracle Park and Chase Field is huge for keeping the ball in the yard. The way he’s pitched the last 2 seasons, just that marginal difference could be enough to push his ERA below 4. And that’s before factoring in the fact that the Padres are just one of those teams that always seem to unlock the most you can get out of their pitchers.
I don’t think it’s climate change as much as all the buildings now built around the stadium. Holding the marine layer back.
The old SD climate is now in Santa Cruz. What we have now is central Baja’ clim
A couple of more big wildfires and be there will be a permanent upward vacuum that’ll take any pop-up all the way to Old Town!
Petco is a better litters park for HR than Fenway.
Fenway is a better hitters park overall.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-f…
Yes, that is exactly what I said.
Climate change??
@brew I have property in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Julian has never seen the atmospheric rivers and accompanying chaos that we get.
@Scream. Nice! I have a place near Julian too. I
I didn’t say they are the same climate now and perhaps Santa Cruz was not the best example (San Luis Obispo?), but Julian in the central Peninsular Ranges now seems to be exhibiting the climate we used to see of the Sierra de San Pedro Martir of Baja, with fewer Pacific winter systems making it down that far south and summers lasting 5 months instead of 3.
Hope you can get fire insurance in Santa Cruz Mtns. I spent my Jr High years in the hills above Los Altos but the house we once lived in burned in 2020.
@Brew I think it’s probably a little bit more complicated then the warm weather slowly moving northwards but I know where you’re coming from. The good news is the last time a fire moved through the SC mountains all of the redwoods on the property handled it no problem! And baseball is back! Go Padres!
Wsc – He spent time on the IL last year with an injury that usually is a precursor to TJS, so having $55M guaranteed is a much better deal. And if he pitches great, he gets a much bigger deal with no QO attached.
Fever, let’s say he pitches well. Only clubs like the Giants, Mets and Mariners will believe he can do it in their parks as well after how he pitched in the AL East and in Philly. I love the guy as an inning eater but he’s not another Eovaldi. Glad he got his guarantee and hopefully he enjoys living in the best weather all year round there is.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-f…
Which teams again?
Is he another Michael Wacha?
@stymeed, that or Lugo, Martinez, King, Snell, and all the other guys who flourished under Niebla the last couple of years. Excited to see what he does with him…
Clearly, you fail to realize that securing a deal at 2.5 times the size of the QO is worth the lower AAV. He won’t earn as much IF he had played on the QO and had a very solid or better year next year, but a down year or injury could have meant much lower total money for the rest of his career. This is how a longer-term deal is SUPPOSED to work for non-stars, trading the security of the total deal for a more team-friendly price per year.
Cleary there are two legitimate sides to this argument and the take the guarantee take isn’t the only one.
Some people take the bag some people bet on themselves.
Garciaparra turned down a 4 year $64 million contract with the Red Sox at the end of 2003. At the time it was one of the larger AAV salaries. He got hurt, got traded to the Cubs, then signed a free agent contract with the Dodgers. In the same 4 years ended up only making $32 million. His decision to turn down the Red Sox cost him $32 million and two World Series appearances, lol….bad decision. I would take the $55 million if i am Pivetta!
Given Pivetta’s age and past earnings, this should be a win-win-win. SD gets an inning eater who has upside, Pivetta banks security with an opt out and Boston gets the pick. Hopefully Breslow does as well with it as Bloom did. Say what you want about Bloom but he was held back by ownership. While I would like to have had pitching developed, Breslow is reaping the benefits of Bloom’s ability to eye talent.
What are you talking about? He just got $55 million guaranteed. Do we need a remedial math class here? Do you not realize that 55 is more than 21? He just got 162% more money.
RIP Cease
No, not at all.
Cease to Mets or Baltimore
TAKERDBACKS: Boston, to complete the 2021 White Sox’ top SR/BP of Giolito, Hendriks and Crochet. White Sox East.
That would be pretty funny!
Preller would have to lower his previous asking price quite a bit for the Orioles to re-engage on Cease and I don’t see that happening, which is fine with me.
They’d be better off trading Arraez or Suarez anyway.
Pads needed this move. They can’t really slip under the tax without multiple moves now. Unless they suck @ the deadline they should hold. If they’re within a game or 3 they need to sell then but otherwise they should stay the course.
BOL pads!
Yeah, given prellers asking price I doubt he is traded.
Padres starting pitching looks much better with this signing.
Simm, with Pivetta as the #4, this is once again a top 5 or 6 rotation. I don’t think Preller is done.
They’re now $17M over CBT first threshold. And trading Cease to stay under isn’t isn’t possible. I suppose the insistence of a Padres are broke narrative was just smoke, or click bait vape. I agree they’re not done.
Idk, they maybe done. Though Preller did say a starter or two. So perhaps he can get another pitcher who is inexpensive in 2025.
Though I currently doubt it given he started last year with nearly the same type of rotation as this year. I’d still like one more starter but can live with not getting another.
I would like one more good bat. Though unless they are willing to clog up the DH spot with Martinez I don’t really see that coming. I know they don’t love the idea of that.
So barring a trade I feel like this is the team we will at least start camp with. Most padres fans like the upside of Tirso and Eguy but I’m not sure Preller does. Preller seems to be out hunting now so we shall see.
They might be done with the rotation, given Shildt just said they were stretching Kolek and developing a competition with Waldron and Vasquez and Brito for back end. With horses Cease, King and Pivetta, I doubt they go with a 6 man rotation, but we’ll see.
By not being done, I was thinking adding/trading for another bat or pen piece more than SP. and nothing major. if they do add another SP, hope it’s a lefty.
Most top GMs are never done. If an opportunnity presents itself to improve their team now and for the future, then they will usually jump on it.
Trading Cease and All Star Closer Robert Suarez would get the Padres under and land them a top young starter, a catcher who can hit too, a 1b/DH or LF also !
Your wish is granted. A #5-#6 change of pace lefty coming your way in Hart
That is not happening. More likely that the Orioles step up and give value for Cease or even more. AL East will be vastly more competitive this year. Orioles rotation has not kept up with the NYY, Red Sox, Tampa etc…Orioles have Great position player talent, but the pitching is not enough to win the AL East and/or make it to the WS.
Orioles have a truckload of draft picks this year for all the players who have walked. So the Orioles giving up 2-3 of their prospects could be balanced off by all their draft picks this year.
AL Wild Card race in 2025 will be brutal with many new, more competitive teams that have emerged: Royals, Tigers, Guardians,Twins Yankees, Red Sox, Rays,Orioles, Rangers, Astros Mariners and more. The Orioles, despite their great position player talent, need starting rotation help for #1 and #2 Starters. If not, then the Orioles could be the best team that misses the playoffs in 2025.
SF0000- Preller was reportedly asking for Westburg, Mayo, or Basallo plus other pieces for 1 year of Cease earlier in the offseason. There is no chance in hell Mike Elias agrees to that.
Cease is staying put if Preller is still expecting a return like that from anyone. He probably isn’t really looking to trade him anyway now that he’s actually gotten the go ahead from ownership to spend a little money on rounding out the roster, which looks a lot better now than it did a week or two ago. I doubt he wants to downgrade it again right after finally making it better.
Which is fine. It means that no way in hell are the Orioles going to get Cease in trade and he is at the top of the Padres rotation all season.
And I agree that it’s fine.
The Padres shouldn’t trade him if they are serious about contending this year (and they clearly are) and I don’t want the Orioles to overpay for a 1 year rental either.
Preller said today another pitcher is likely even if it’s a minor league deal.
He also said he is looking at getting another bat
Simm- Glad to hear it. A lot of people seemed to see the Pivetta signing as evidence that Cease getting traded was now more likely when I took it the opposite way.
King- he was asked about cease today. He answered slightly weird to me. Saying nothing had changed on that front. Then went onto talk about the top 3 cease king darvish being a solid top 3. Of course he didn’t talk about Pivetta because it’s not official.
So nothing changed as in he has a high asking price, or he isn’t trading him. Idk for sure based on his answer.
He did make it very clear he isn’t done trying to add. He actually sounded pretty sure so my guess is he has something in the works.
These moves by Preller for Pivetta and Kyle Hart signal that Preller is in the drivers seat and will deal Cease only if he gets the right deal. A cost controlled young position player who can hit well and a young major league ready starting pitcher is the likely price. Spring Training, injuries, under performance in teams rotation competing for a playoffs spot will get Preller’sphone ringing about Cease.
Mike Elias (Orioles) would be foolish to not upgrade his rotation either with Cease or some other #1 Starter. Top of the rotation starters with relatively low salaries are as valuable as diamonds.
“Cease to the Orioles” isn’t happening.
Stop trying to make it happen.
King- more wish it to happen but good point.
I don’t see Cease being traded but if they did trade him the O’s look like a better landing spot now than they did before the Pivetta and hart signings.
Though I could say the same about the Red Sox, cubs and Mets.
Nice pick up change of scenery is always good
Now that pivetta signing with padres, how about all those rumors of cease and/or king being traded because padres cutting payroll?
Someone is probably still getting traded
You may be right looking at the structure of that contact
LMFAO.
Those rumors were all thrown out there by, you know, actual baseball writers…
With the addition of Pivetta the Padres can now trade King/Cease and save 3.75mil-9.75mil for the upcoming season.
Regardless whether they do, or don’t, the contract structure indicates they expect those guys to be gone by 2026.
What the structure indicates is that prior to this signing the Padres had only $137 million in guaranteed contracts and another $25-26 million in arbitration eligible players on the books for 2026.
Dealing Cease and relief pitcher Wandy Peralta may get them under the luxury tax.
They are paying $4 million so definitely short cash.
Padres lose 70 mil after this season. No panic. No need to trade either of their top pitchers. We’re good.
But, they will since Cease will give them at least a couple of players that will help them in the pennant race this year. After this year, they will only get a draft pick for Cease ready for MLB in 2-4 years. KIng is staying since the Padre have a better chance of extending him.
Nobody from the actual organization actually said theyre cutting payroll. They were planning to keep it at a certain level. Everything has been based on assumptions.
Signing PIvetta could be the signal that AJ Preller is close to a blockbuster deal or deals moving Cease and Suarez most likely in separate deals bringing multiple young, cost controlled major league or major league ready talent back a starting pitcher or 2,
a catcher/1B who also hits,
a young LF who hits and defends well. etc.
Listen to his press conference today. The Padres are adding, not subtracting. Based on what he said, Cease won’t be moved.
Preller said that Arraez was the 1B and that Shildt had said in their morning meeting that the Padres were best team in baseball after Arraez came on board May 5th.
Preller did say that they were looking to add a bat and LF would be an obvious place, but the 3 headed platoon of Ornelas, Joe, and occasionally Heyward would be an effective one.
Of course Preller is saying that. He is a great Poker player. GMs cannot sound desperate to deal a player or players or they get low ball offers. They will gamble on keeping King, extending him or taking the draft pick after issuing a QO.
Cease is more likely to be dealt because he is definitely walking and will be harder to extend (Boras).
Effectively a 3 year 34.5mil contracrt for Pivetta as he turned down the 20.5 mil QO, and the Pads lose 2 draft picks. Still looks like a questionable decision on his part.
Splitting hairs, but QO is 21.05 or 21.55 depending on which site you prefer
MLB has the QO at $21.05 million.
Not remotely questionable. He got 2,5 times the total guaranteed rather than a better single year total with complete uncertainty beyond that. Both would have been sensible for him, and there’s nothing weird about taking the much bigger total.
Padres will lose their second-highest selection in the following year’s Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. They were under the CBT in 2024.
The only way this makes any sense based on what they could have done earlier for better pitching is that they have something pretty far along deal wise to move some payroll and get prospects back that offset the loss of a high draft pick and international $. I mean the farm is awful and he wants to make it more difficult to fix? Gotta be something in the works to make this make sense.
The farm is lacking depth. At the same time it has to highly ranked prospects that could be ready as soon as 2026/27.
If you are able to add a high end prospect in those years to the team the farm is doing what it needs to.
It really only hurts their ability to make trades. Which they don’t have a bunch of holes to fill anyways. Even if they lose king and cease next year they will have darvish, Pivetta and Musgrove as their top 3. With plenty of money coming off to add another quality starter. Padres are in a good spot where they can rebuild the farm over the next 2 years.
I won’t make it to Peoria this spring, but I like to attend the A-AAA games when I can. Looking forward to watching Mayfield, Bateman, Rodriguez, Nett, Cruz, Fountain, Tears, etc… I think the farm will grow and mature in a big way this year with some high ceiling guys emerging.
Padres will be getting extra draft picks since they have multiple free agents and opt out candidates.
Wth!?!?!?!
Good signing, have to believe the Padres are going to hold onto their pitchers now. Got Pivetta cheap achieving a huge goal. Preller to the rescue again.
Pivetta would be the 10th starter on the Dodgers and here SD fans are giddy. Lolzzzzz
padres fans are weird but they’ll take whatever they can get at this point
Kewldude: Or their top starter when the 10th Dodger P goes on the IL.
Cool story except the Padres were using the same number of starting pitchers in the playoffs.
So when the Dodgers dont win the series, and probably have trouble winning the season series against the Padres, what will your excuse be then????.
My answer was you were wrong and the dodgers won the season series.
He would be the #4 starter on the Dodgers behind Snell, Glasnow, and Yamamoto to start the season. #2 by the time Ohtani makes it back. Ohtani won’t pitch until late May at the earliest according to Roberts.
pretty sure May and Gonzo sb ready for ST as well. not to mention Miller and CK later on.
May is coming off his 2nd Tommy John. He has a snowballs shot on a Yuma sidewalk at noon in August of making it through the season with an ERA better than 4.00. Only 3 out of 54 have done it so far. See Beuhler for recent example of dodger pitchers who have failed to do it.
Gonsolin has a shot. He is 15 months out from his 1st TJ surgery. He is coming off a 5 ERA, so a return to form doesn’t bode well for his 2025 season. Roberts saying he would get most of his early appearances out of the pen does indicate that they are not counting on him in the rotation. That doesn’t knock Pivetta out of the #4 slot.
CK will start the season in the 60 man IL.
Miller had an 8+ ERA last season, a 5+ career ERA, a shoulder injury that cost him a huge chunk of 2024, and is expected to be in Oklahoma City to start 2025 if he is ready to go opening day. I don’t think I would count on him helping in Chavez Ravine.
sounds like you’ve got it all figured out who should have dirt thrown on their careers. would like to see May in the bp and I’m bullish on Ferris and am rooting for him in Boston. Miller is going to be around some of the best in the game. fine seeing Pivetta in SD and glad they aren’t throwing in the towel on their season.
Dodgers need 10 starters. Dodgers have more injured pitchers than I have ever seen from a team.
Dodgers need at least 10 starters since they have record numbers of their pitchers always hurt.
Really good deal for both sides almost no matter what.
No matter who the Padres sign, they can never beat the Dodgers
You look slightly less twinkish when you flex your inflated Blue muscles… on a Padre post no less. I’m telling your mom.
Spoken like a true trashy Padres fan. Cry about it next year in the playoffs- if you make it that far
🙂
Damn dude, you win a Mickey Mouse title and then are gifted one by the better team, the Padres, who happened to lay a 24 inning egg, and you talk smack??? Let me guess, you are only Dodger fan for maybe 3-4 years?????
Vermont
In the morning if you see a school bus no matter where it’s going just get on. The first time through clearly didn’t take hold
Saying the Padres were a better team than the Dodgers is the most laughable homer bs I’ve read and I read Trumps memo on paper straws!!!
Do you think he realizes that the Padres were 8-5 against the Dodgers last season and that the Padres knocked the 111 win Dodgers out of the playoffs in 2022?
But they can never beat the Dodgers? .
Dragonslayer 2.0
LFGSD
Let ’em gloat. Classless Dodger fans are worthless fans. There are some pretty good ones that show up here to actually talk baseball. Ya know, the mature guys, kind of like real MEN? This “Dogs Rule” kid? Let him go finish high school, lol.
Padres have a chore ahead of ’em, because the Dodgers have put together a fantastic squad, ON PAPER. Ya know that ol’ saw but battle plans not surviving first contact with the enemy? Well, the Pads have the right manager and right coaches to build the 2025 team to compete against anyone.
Padres came within 1 game of knocking the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 2024 also. Padres played the Dodgers better than any other playoffs team including the NYY.
In 2021 the Giants took the Dodgers to a 5th, and final game in the NLDS, and lost 2-1 on an egregiously bad check-swing call on Wilmer Flores in bottom of the 9th, with the tying run on base.
I’ve been a fan my entire life, and it’s been a rough path but I’m glad I’ve watched them develop into the powerhouse that they are now. The Padres are not the better team, and the Dodgers will continue to prove this. Trashy teams produce trashy fans.
Takes one to know one! Have fun DR42, we’re all enjoying ourselves here.
Tthe Dodgers have class but no hate. It’s always enjoyable to watch them play each other, I would efinitely consider the Padres the second best team in baseball and the budding of a great rivalry. The NLCs were very fun to watch despite all the tension.
Cheers DR42, give ’em Helena if we’re out of the Postsrason. I’m a big proponent for the NLW always winning the Piece of Metal. Keep it in the Division! We just need to start contributing some rings to feel… ahhh… relevant? Later brah
Assuming I’m a male withers your otherwise good insult
Padres have played the Dodgers very tough every time.
Padres came within 1 game of knocking the Dodgers out of the playoffs last year
and knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs a few years ago also.
do they have some sort of flag for that?
Nope, not yet. Hopefully this year though!
Great move for Padres,especially the salary structure
But for Pivetta…he will make in the first two years the SAME AMOUNT he turned down for a 1 yr qualifying offer at the end of the year.
That’s GOT to sting a bit
Stings, yes.
But OTOH to find $55M guaranteed on Feb. 12 in your one big shot at free agency is a pretty fair escape job from what could have been a bigger wipeout.
Or, if he pitches poorly or gets a major injury, he’ll lean back secure in the knowledge that he grabbed much better money for 2027-2028. That’s the natural tradeoff of passing on an overpriced single year for a medium-term deal.
Maybe there’s more to it (the initial one-paragraph post is still up as I write this), but seems odd that if he opts out after two years he’ll have made barely more than the QO would have given him in one year. The opposite of betting on yourself.
Isn’t that true of every player who signs a multi-year deal?
Pivetta turned down the QO because he wanted the security of a multi-year deal. It may turn out to be dumb, as many suggest, but if he suffers a serious injury, it will quickly reverse to being smart business.
It’s not odd. It’s a sensible setup, as it discourages him from opting out after only two years while still keeping the door open for him to make extra bank if he kicks butt the next two seasons. If not, he plays at least one more year in SD, and if things don’t go so well with him he can play out the whole deal and make very good money.
Hosmer money will come off books after this season probably why it’s back loaded
Doesn’t this mean Dylan Cease is going to be traded.
Nah brah
Likely Suarez or Arraez, I’m guessing….
Suarez, maybe. I just don’t see a trading partner for Arraez.
Very likely, but only if the Padres get the deals they want at the prices they want trading teams to pay.
Not sure id trade from the rotation, since im not neccesarily sold on them even with pivetta. Much rather trade arraez or saurez for depth outfielder or depth rotation.
Rotation and outfield is fine now, plenty of depth
Show those Dodgers you can write up some fake contracts too!! Nice.
Pivetta turns 32 in two days and has never been better than average. I don’t understand the excitement over this signing.
By the way, 623 innings in four years does not make him some kind of workhorse.
Averaging 150+ innings a year for nearly half a decade, can be considered “workhorse” by today’s standard imho.
EL, some of the innings was due to how he was used in Boston. When effective, he went deep in games and saved the arms of others. His inconsistency and HR rate are why he remained available.
2024 – 103 ERA+ 4.14 ERA 4.07 FIP
2023 – 113 ERA+ 4.04 ERA 3.96 FIP
That is better than average.
2024
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg…
2023
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg…
Anything else you care to comment on without knowing the facts first?
@ElKadouche Is absolutely another clueless LA Defergers fan.
Congrats Padres fans!
Hoping that they trade Cease to the Mets. Perhaps Jett Williams and Jonah Tong?
If you want Cease, it starts with Acuna, then tell us the other 2 prospects you’re adding?
Acuna isn’t very good. People are going way too overboard after a few games.
Preller has been asking for a top 25 or so prospect from everyone else that asked about Cease. Acuna is not close. Never was.
Sproat, Megill, Mauricio, and another player was what was the rumored asking price at the Winter Meetings. I see no reason that it would have gone down since then,
Today Steve Adams said pretty much exactly what I said about the price for Cease to the Mets. Starts with Sproat.
Looked at the Mets top prospects and their 40 man roster and I did not see a fit for a trade that would meet the Padres needs.
Good for Nick and good for the Padres
That’s a lot of money for a garbage pitcher.
And just why are we talking about Jordan Montgomery here?
Nice signing.
not sure about that. Cease and maybe King are leaving after 2025. Pivetta is staying. SD wants to compete this season.
Cease and King are FAs in 2026, definitely leaving
Unless one of them signs an extension. After tax day, that extension counts towards CBT in 2026.
King maybe
I think King is the likelier of the two also. He is a year older and has less history as a starting pitcher.
King likes SD and the Padres and could re up for the right deal.
Padres will try to extend King and trade Cease.
Suarez could be traded also since Padres have bullpen depth.
Don’t like Padres. But solid move for them. Unless they ditch Cease because of it. It’s also an indicator their budget seems tapped. Which we knew as Connor Joe and Jayson Heyward combine for only about 3.5 million.
Padres lose 70 mil in payroll next year. No need to ditch anybody
They have to get to next year, first. This fiscal year, they may need to ditch somebody.
Or just exceed the CBT just this one year, which FO said they were open to.
Padres don’t need to “ditch anyone”, but I can see them trading Cease and Suarez to make them stronger this year and in the years to come.
@echopark. They could always trade pivetta, and only cost them three million.
And nobody has ever said theyre cash strapped…..
Joe and Hayward are “bench pieces”.
If Cease is traded, I expect the Padres will get a young rotation pitcher and a young LF or C/1B.
Solid move. Friar rotation good if current group stands
I wonder if his agent was able to secure a $17m loan (repayable over the 2nd-4th years) for Pivetta to get him back to the QO cash amount?
Didn’t think this move was possible. Very nice pickup!!
Ah, u been listening to Jon and Jim and other negativity SD podcasters?
@brew. I’ve been seeing the 3 articles a day since the offseason on this site. Also I’ve been reading fry ohtani’s, and bita’s informative comments. Ok joking aside It definitely wasn’t only Jon and Jim saying that. I guess acee did say the padres wouldn’t be spending this offseason after joe and heyward, unless preller gets creative so I guess he wasn’t wrong. You can’t deny it’s been half right. Definitely have a spending limit this year.
The sky is falling was the narrative buzz in all local SD media, not just Jon and Jim (more Jon than Jim). Everyone wanted Roki or big splashy moves. Kim and Profar were liked so I get the disappointment from fans. But they really don’t have as many holes to fill this year than they did last. And there is a general opinion that smallish market teams like the Padres have no business keeping up with the big boys, so a fire sale just has to always be around the corner.
My credo has always been to judge the team at the end of Spring training because we never really know what AJP will do in advance. I was thinking they might grab Junis or build via trades and he often works late. so this FA signing surprised me a bit. It wouldnt surprise me if AJ does a trade or two in the next 50 days, and not necessarily to lower payroll.
I figure AJP and Padre owners have a very dynamic salary cap. What level of pain they will endure for what purpose, only they know. No way do I see them cashing in the chips to make bean counters happy. A year above the lux tax won’t kill ’em, money’s coming off next season, and AJP could still do creative things before the end of the season to get the team AAV below CBT threshold, like moving Cease or others at the trade deadline. Cease will be worth more at the trade deadline, particularly if he’s performing well, then teams are willing to offer now. So, let him play.
Why would a guy coming off a successful season be worth more at the deadline than right now when he’s lost 2/3 of his remaining club control and his QO eligibility?
I am counting on it especially when Spring Training play and injuries exposes holes in some pennant contending teams’ rotations.
good pick up
That’s one way of getting around a payroll crunch lol.
The noise outside doesn’t echo the tunes from inside!
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Low aav so that helps
Exceeding the CBT was always in the cards, will now say every writer saying otherwise entire offseason
I’m not sure what that means (maybe I’m too old?), but it’s a very creative contract that solves the issue of needing another decent starter but not really having a ton of money to pay for one right now.
Hope he has a nice year for you fellas!
If you look, its a guy holding his hands up and shrugging
Cease to O’s incoming. O’s love their non-commit starter deals. Flaherty, Burnes, and Cease incoming.
I doubt it unless Preller lowers his previously reported asking price from the Orioles.
I think they’ll hold on to Cease now anyway.
Oh wow. The Padres lose a draft pick too? Gotta love Preller!
But, but, but…623 innings in four years. That qualifies this mediocre pitcher as a “workhorse.”
Can you find 15 SPs who pitched more than 623 in last 4 years?
Or 23?
This is a very good move by Preller. Limited budget in 2025, gets him for extremely cheap I. 2025. The padres have a bunch of money coming off the books next season so they can afford him them. Plus Musgrove will be back.
Good overall money for Pivetta.
Nice starting 4 of
Cease
King
Darvish
Pivetta.
A number of guys who can fight for the 5th spot if they don’t sign another guy.
Can’t imagine an offseason without a Preller trade.
Yeah he could still make a move. Perhaps he moves Suarez still. I don’t see cease being traded.
Suarez for just about anyone position wise is fine at this point. I’d still like a LF, starting pitcher, Catcher or 1b.
Same needs they have had all offseason. They have some depth there now so it’s not a huge need but you can still upgrade each one of those positions.
They might just hold pat now. AJ likes a deep pen. But then again a few trades over the next week wouldn’t shock me either!
If AJP makes ANY trade moves, they’ll probably be shockers, because … Spring-Season-Gunslinger-Preller.
Does this increase likelihood of a Cease or King trade?
If this is a precursor to moving Cease, I do not abide.
I’m guessing Suarez or Arraez instead of Cease
Looks around for Gwynning…. did he see this and stroked out or something? hope he’s alright! 🙂
Cant a brother watch a sunset in peace? Ha cheers
What is this “watching a sunset” you speak of? Cheers as well.
Yeah the beach was socked in, just got dark quick is all!
We need the rain even more than we need SP depth!
How does this fit the media narrative that the Padres are broke and need to cut payroll? They’ve yet to trade a single player for payroll relief.
Media narrative? You realize they’ve been embroiled in an ownership dispute, right?
Cease/Arraez/King being traded and payroll-cutting rumors have persisted since their offseason began.
They might happen. Trade rumors are hardly a media narrative.
You would think that would happen before players report to camp while other teams are signing starters under $5M to fill out their rotation.
It’s nice to have players that are wanted, that’s the way I’ve seen it YBC.
I would suggest a substantial- if not predominant- amount of rumors we hear are a media driven narrative, Kabong.
Find evidence that the Padres have shopped any SP? It’s all media driven click bait
No you wouldn’t. If no one meets your price, you would wait until the spring training pitcher injury bloodbath gets underway. Hope someone gets forced to pay up. You would be stupid to accept less than what you want prior to ST. Especially after what happened last year.
Only for the control person.
No one from the Org ever said they had to trade players to lower payroll.
SD was 17th in revenue last year..and has a top 10 payroll in ‘25.
Doesn’t sound like a fire sale to me.
@MrPadre….. totally agree. Laughable everyone seems to know the inner workings of the organization when no word has actually come from that organization. Big difference between not wanting to spend, and not being able to. Padres can spend if they want.
YBC – I doubt it was Pivetta who asked to be paid only $4M this year.
Preller is not done.
Expect Cease to be traded.
Maybe Suarez also,
Terrible decision on Pivetta’s part declining the QO. Even an average season with the Sox he’d still have easily been able to beat the effective 3/$34m he gets on top of the QO. His opt=out after two years is essentially the same as the QO so he’s giving away a year for free by declining the Sox’s offer.
And if he pitched poorly or got hurt?
He’d lose out on $30+ mil.
I voted for them in the poll!
SD fans are pretty excited over a guy that has a 4.76 career ERA.
If you look at his most two recent years, he has shown a pretty good improvement in both ERA and whip. He has learned to keep less runners on base and is a different pitcher than his early years. Will he have any issues as he gets older? Maybe but the price they paid him is justified.
Yeah, because what he did in 2017 is projectable in 2025. Idjit.
The guy is going to get rocked in the NL. You’re all excited for a guy that has never had an ERA and under 4.00.
A lot of teams can use a #4/5 SP at ERA 4 who can eat 150 innings. The Pads needed that slot filled. But yeah, no illusions he’s Darvish, King or Cease.
@JackStrawb Anyone who must go straight to name-calling loses all credibility.
Also, it’s Petco, and we have Ruben Niebla…….
Better deal than I thought he’d get.
LOL bob melvin’s rotation…
Lot of dollars for a number 5 starter
A #4, and it’s the going rate
Hey, a bona fide free agent signing. How ’bout that.
Did you really doubt?
@Brew88
Yes. This is a surprise to me. A pleasant one.
I thought they’d tool up the roster via trades rather than FA so I’m a little surprised too. But I have had some confidence that the CBT line wasn’t in ink
Happy for Nick. Always liked him even if he wasn’t the most spectacular pitcher you’ll ever see. He was always a pro even when his role was getting switched around, and was always willing to do what the team needed of him. He had some painful stretches but also had some really really fun ones. Including the unexpected 2021 playoff run when he was a total stud that October. San Diego seems like a good fit for him – also what I predicted the other day in the poll MLBTR posted. Best of luck to him and the Pads this year.
“Pivetta slots fourth on Bob Melvin’s rotation depth chart for the moment”. Wrong team, wrong manager my guy.
Arraez + $14M = ?
Hopefully they’re not making this pivetta signing with the expectation ok competing against the dodgers for their division because it’ll be hopeless for them and a big waste of time and money!
They just need to get into the playoffs, and anything can happen.
The dodgers are going to win the division, have the best record in baseball and win the World Series…
That is a given…unless they don’t.
And if they win 125 games and the WS, it might be the preferred outcome that generates enough momentum for MLB to consider a more NFL type model that motivates payroll ceilings and caps.
If they win 125 and get eliminated from playoffs, how embarrassing.
Great day for the Pivetta family. Congrats dude!
Good to know that Bob Melvin is still determining the pecking order in the Padre rotation.
Is Cease watch on now?
Better get a lot back if so
“Backloaded” = Making it harder to sell the team
“Backloaded” = Kicking the can down the road.
The deal will be particularly bad if he sucks or is injured.
If he’s great, they’ll lose him.
If he’s great, they got great production for $1M.
Bob Melvin’s rotation? lol no thansk
But the Padres are lowering payroll.
“Slots in fourth for Bob Melvin” Hahaha Franco
Careful, Jimbo…there are guys that are quick to defend the posters of these articles. They will find a way to justify the typo in hopes of endearing themselves to mlbtr…hahahaha
Yeah ! Damn those people who show respect to the writers on a free website !
You go get em, girl !
Bob Melvin ?
Can someone please explain why a guy with a caeer ERA of nearly five is getting a four year contract worth up to 55 mil? This makes no logical sense.
I’ve always liked Pivetta, so I dig this signing. First it shows some smarts from the Padres on the salary structure if they’re having issues this year with cash, though they are kinda stuck with him on the back end should he not opt out as it seems like a tough contract to move.
That said, this works for both. Pivetta gives them a solid mid rotation starter that can really K batters. Pivetta banked on himself and it’s paid off. Those still saying he screwed himself as he left more money on the table aren’t looking big picture. He’s 32 and the future is always murky. Security means a lot to some of these guys and if he likes it there or is injured or ineffective, he doesn’t have to move at all for the next four years. There’s no guarantee he was going to make more on the market next season if he accepted the QO.
They should really hold Cease and everyone else now, at least till the break. See what y’all got, Padres!
Might be nothing but a Red Sox fan friend told me he was a clubhouse cancer.
Lol
If true, that is AJ Preller’s type. Kemp and Pham are the top two…
Thr Padres re-hired Bob Melvin?
lol pads. Hope a WS won win this year
Nuts! Career ERA is close to 5!!!!!
-Kikuchi is a career 4.75 era, under .500, 33 years old, and signed for $21 per.
-Maenea 4.0 era, 33 years old, $25 per
-Eovaldi 4 1 era, 35 years old, $25 per
Pivetta getting average $13.5 per as a 32 year old with a 4.75 era. It’s not horrible……
His career FIP is 4.36. When you are pitching in Fenway and Philly, you have to discount the ERA significantly.
I’m happy for Nick, but I’m kinda glad he didn’t sign with the Braves at that price. He’d put them over the threshhold, and I don’t think he moves the needle enough. I’d rather the Braves go with their younger guys and hope for the best.
If he stays all 4 years he got 13.75m aav. That’s literally nothing.
That’s odd. You were pretty certain $15m for Verlander was crisis time at the Giants. That extra 1.25 makes it something ?
In Darrugh’s article earlier this afternoon, “Per Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Shildt said that right-hander Stephen Kolek will be stretched out as a starter but fellow righty Bryan Hoeing will stay in a relief role this year.” So naw, AF…Hoeing isn’t pitching for a rotation spot and Bob Melvin manages up the coast, kiddo.
lolPadres
Big spender preller. Who paid for this?
Lonely days are gone
I’ma going home
Preller,just signed Pivetta!
Gimme a contract thru 2028
Ain’t got time before it’s Spring Train ( then your part)
Don’t get it. $55M and give up a draft pick for him when better was available earlier. Don’t understand what it is they are doing.
55 divided by 4 aint bad for a pitcher. Draft picks aren’t that painful unless you are drafting high or have comp picks. They factor in their value before making offers.
Better was presumably not available for so cheap in 2025.
He is making nearly nothing this year. Which is the year that payroll was tight. His structure was a great fit and likely not one others wanted to do.
He is a good pitcher and the others signed for a higher aav and more money in 2025. All n all this is a good deal for the padres.
Anyone else notice that there were absolutely no rumors that the Padres were even interested in Pivetta?
Uh huh.
Unlike some GMs who talk too much, leak too much to the press and end up sabotaging themselves and their teams.
Think it’s also a little amusing (not to Kevin A though) that they told Acee just yesterday they were stretching Kolek for SP role leading him to wax poetic that Kolek would be it for the rotation.
Last night there was an article on Google anticipating this signing. MLBTRs isn’t always the fastest and throwing Melvin in there sounds like a stroke
Sports Illustrated just this morning had a click bait prediction
passan actually wrote about it yesterday stating the padres were a fit for pivetta and if he signed with them it could give them flexibility to deal cease or king if they so chose.
“The Padres have been hamstrung all offseason by payroll restrictions”
Yet they have added nearly $40 million to the CBT payroll and $44 million to the opening day payroll.
I thought you were better than that Anthony. Why do you keep trotting out that tired narrative even though it has been proven wrong over and over and over?
He pulled a hammy
lol.
Yeah Anthony. Over and over….proven wrong….every time ! You just got to be better, mate.
Ha ha. Most emotionally fragile group of fans on the face of the planet. It’s such a highly entertaining clown show.
You have to admit the Padres are broke fire sale daily narrative hasn’t panned out in reality. Thats the real clown show?
How much of that $40m they added to the CBT payroll is from guys who were not already on the Padres last season?
Hmm, some of their big contracts are backloaded, right? Is the AAV used for the CBT figure recalculated after each year of those contract pass?
No. Unless the contract has deferred money, the CBT is based on the AAV regardless of how the money is paid out. So a 3 year deal that’s $8M in year 1, $10M in year 2, and $12M in year 3, carries a CBT hit of $10M for each of all three years of the deal.
Even though SD is only paying Pivetta $1M this season (with the $3M bonus), the CBT hit is $13.75M every year, based on 4 years/$55M, since that’s the AAV
They can’t really trade any of their core pieces away without taking a hit in the standings. So I say they should just say “screw it” and pay the luxury tax this year. But preferably don’t go over by more than $40m so as to not have their top draft pick lowered 10 spots in 2026.
Suarez wouldn’t hurt to trade, their pen is stacked.
He should’ve taken the qualifying offer. As long as his value doesn’t massively tank this upcoming season, he should be able to beat $34M over 3 years next offseason had he taken the QO.
This is a rare situation where I think he should have taken the QO, taken an insurance policy on himself, and banked on himself. In this situation, if he came out healthy and pitched well this next season, all he would have to do is sign a 2 year $34 mil contract to break even ish. Which I think he could easily have done considering he wouldn’t have had a QO attached to him and the pitching market has been horribly overinflated. Worse case scenario he signs 1 year contexts the following two years that easily get him past that. So yea. He might lock his money down, but I think he handicapped himself a good bit here
He signed a 4-year contract, so he’d have 3 years to beat $34M rather than just 2 years, which would be even easier.
Otherwise, I agree.
“gives up a lot of hard contact”
But also missed a lot of bats.
“flexor strain in his elbow”. Oof.
When professional franchises have to pay with Klarna
Good move by SD. Pivetta is nothing special, but delivers delivers #3 innings every year. It looks more like a $54M/3 contract, but still better than some other SP signings.
Classic Poker Move by Preller.
When another MLB team. inevitably, has a major starter go down to injury and/or ineffectiveness(Spring Training or after),
then Preller will still take calls on Dylan Cease
and either
1) Get the Padres high asking price for Cease or very close to it
Or
2) Just hang onto Cease and issue a qualifying offer at the end of the season
and take the draft pick.
Some of the proposed payroll cuts are likely still coming. It has only delayed until 2026
(unless the Padres have a late developing trade.
Closer Robert Suarez could be the odd man out).
If the Padres don’t resign King, then King, Cease( if not traded), Arraez and a few others will be allowed to walk out the door and into free agency.
It’s a cool signing, if only because ownership no longer looks like a lame duck. I like Pivetta pitching in Petco, and with Niebla, he seems like a Lynn type (great peripherals but with lots of hard contact). That contract structure is a boon for the team this year and gives them an okay top-3 in 2026 with Musgrove and Darvish.
Took a bit but glad he passed his physical.
Padres rotation is looking pretty dang good.
Should be a good battle to see who claims the 5th spot.
Hart (leading candidate), Vasquez, Waldron, Kolek, Nunez, Brito and a few others will be in the mix. None of them may seem great but one of them could surprise.
What is it SD needs other than salary relief?
Say they trade Suarez and Arraez, full salary relief, what do they want back?
Prospects, position players ,Sp, relief?
Breiske? Ibanez? Biggio? Perez?
Well, Suarez would be less of a hit than taking Arraez’s .300+ bat out of the line up. With Arraez gone, they’re short one first baseman and a lot of hits and bases. With Suarez going out, pitching coming back is always a plus. LF is still a work in progress (no guarantee that the platoon of Heyward/Ornelas/Joe works out). Then there’s restocking the farm …
Like every other MLB team, the Padres want/need everything, lol. The obvious problem is that the Padres are not rebuilding. They’re playing for “now”, and need MLB level talent coming back as well as cash. It does happen but it’s rare, that a “like for like” trade of MLB level talent occurs, between two teams on the same competitive timeline. It kind of worked for the Soto trade least, which in turn fed a win/win trade with the Yankees. It’s just difficult to match up on these kinds of trades, as AJP always says. That’s what makes Preller such an amazingly successful GM. He figures out how to do innovative deals that most other GM’s don’t even try to get done. There’s risk, of course, but that’s the name of the GM game.
Now that they’ve added Pivetta, Heyward, Joe, Hart and a few other back up options (at C etc…), they don’t have any glaring needs. IF they traded Suarez at this point, which doesn’t make a ton of sense (other than payroll reduction and they also doesn’t seem such a big deal either), they’re dealing from a position of strength (they have a deep bullpen) and might consider a power bat that can help at 1B/DH. But they might fill that need internally or via FA signing.
With the Pivetta signing, the Padres have just set a MLB record for personnel moves over a three year span. The Padres have made 416 personnel moves over the last three seasons. 12 more moves this season, and the Padres will have employed half of the league at one point or another.
Still no rings.
Beats rooting for a team which doesn’t try any day.
And to think, the biggest complaint about the Padres from most media and many of their own fans is that they weren’t making any moves this off season. A fickle species we are.
In last 3 seasons there have been 938 hitters and 1309 pitchers on a MLB roster.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
Those are the pitchers.
BTW, the Dodgers have outspent the Padres on MLB payroll by $1.37 billion since the start of the 2013 season and only have 1 ring in a full season. They have outspent the Padres by more than $100 million per season more and that is all they have to show for it. That number will go up by $140 million this season.
If the Dodgers don’t win the WS with the highest payroll in history in 2025 it will be the biggest failure in MLB history.