Reports back in December suggested that the Orioles had trade interest in Dylan Cease, and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko wrote today that the O’s and Padres indeed had some level of discussion about the right-hander’s availability. However, it isn’t clear if talks have gone anywhere, as Kubatko reports that San Diego “checked on” some notable Baltimore players who “weren’t on the table,” including All-Star infielder Jordan Westburg and top prospects Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo. The nature of the trade discussion aren’t known, but presumably one of these three would’ve been the headliner of a trade package, with Cease (and perhaps other players) heading to Baltimore in return.
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is said to be looking for “significant major-league value” in exchange for Cease, and it is only natural that Preller would aim high when discussing perhaps his top trade chip. Landing Westburg would have filled San Diego’s second base position for years to come, Mayo could’ve become the Padres’ first baseman of the future and very likely a contributor in 2025, and Basallo projects as a keeper at either first base or catcher. San Diego already has one of the sport’s top catching prospects in Ethan Salas, but further adding to the future depth chart would’ve given the Padres an embarrassment of riches at a notoriously difficult position to fill.
For many of these same reasons, the Orioles obviously have no interest in dealing any of this trio. As Kubatko notes, it is particularly unlikely that Baltimore (or perhaps any other team) would trade away premium controllable talent for Cease, who is slated to enter free agency next winter.
It should be noted that the Orioles did swing a big trade for a rental pitcher just over a year ago, when the O’s moved Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft (Baltimore’s Competitive Balance Round selection) to the Brewers in exchange for Corbin Burnes. That trade package has been suggested by many as a possible comp for what the Padres might realistically hope to land in a Cease deal, though the fact that the Orioles already depleted their minor league depth for Burnes might make them unlikely to make another splurge for a pitcher with one year of control.
The Twins, Mets, Cubs, and Red Sox are among the teams who have also been linked to Cease’s trade market at various points this winter, though reports have suggested that Minnesota and New York are unable or unwilling to meet the Padres’ demands. The Red Sox already dealt away some noteworthy young talent to obtain Garrett Crochet from the White Sox, and might not want to move even more players to also add Cease.
With several weeks to go before Opening Day, it is certainly still possible any of these teams or the Orioles could re-emerge as possible trade partners, should the Padres lower their asking price. On the flip side, pitching injuries in Spring Training might well bring some new teams into the mix, perhaps with some increased desperation that would make them more willing to cough up a bigger trade package that would come closer to meeting San Diego’s needs.
Since Burnes was entering free agency and ultimately headed to the Diamondbacks, an ace pitcher was widely seen as perhaps the top need on Baltimore’s offseason checklist. While the O’s were known to have at least had some talks about some top free agents or trade targets, the club instead made more moderate pitching adds, signing Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to one-year contracts. Sugano and Morton join Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer as the Orioles’ projected starting five, with Albert Suarez working as a swingman in the bullpen, and the likes of Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers, and Chayce McDermott at Triple-A as further depth options.
With Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells also hoping to make late-season returns from UCL surgeries last season, the Orioles might end up having a surplus of rotation options if everyone is healthy. In theory, it would make sense if the O’s offered one of the younger big league-ready arms as part of a Cease trade, as the Padres could then use that pitcher to take Cease’s spot in their own rotation. But, with Eflin, Morton, and Sugano all free agents next winter, Baltimore surely hopes to dip into its depth to reload what might be a very different-looking rotation in 2026.
You can dream preller but this isn’t. A good look in your post Soto tenure.
Punctuate much ?
Phones a mess right now. Need a new one honestly. Sorry if my grammar offended you.
NP, we love doing decipering work here…
As long as Grandpa didn’t offend you, it’s all good.
I’m trying to decipher “decipering”…
Spell much? It’s deciphering.
It’s very easy to type quickly, get autocorrected and leave the screen before you even have a chance to edit. Happens to me all too often because tbh sometimes you don’t even have the time to check.
Roe Jogan
You gotta respect your elders. I’m not 40 yet but I’m pretty close.
I don’t think anyone even knows what you were trying to state. Don’t get so bent out of shape. Also by “Phones a mess right now” did you mean to write “my phone’s a mess right now” or do you have multiple phones that are “a mess”?
My phone is awful right now. I’m not losing sleep over the comment. Prolly need some calibration work done or time for an upgrade.
You are young lol
I’m young enough. I’ll be 36 in April.
Space before the comma? Just sayin’…
It’s traderumors. Not tradegrammerly. That’s all I’m saying.
@hehehate
Didn’t you know this is English 101 and traderumors. Sponsored by Carl’s Jr.
I’m actually a fantastic writer in my own right, but never take it seriously with everything else I do. Super busy guy myself these days.
I’d never win a spelling be though I’m dead in the water there for sure.
@hehehate
Lol wasn’t questioning your writing skills just being sarcastic, I’m the last person on this site criticizing someone’s English when I barely passed hs English myself. I too get irritated by the “English” majors here too, like you said it’s trade rumors not English 101
@HEHEHATE
That would be “tradegrammarly”. With an “a”.
me fail english? that’s umpossible
Learned from the best. Coach John Mcguirk is my spirit animal.
If I were the Oriole’s front office upon hearing the ask of those 3 players for 1 year of Cease? Prellar’s ear would still be ringing from how loudly the phone was hung up.
Natural-It didn’t say AJ asked for all 3. Perhaps you misunderstood the article?
Perhaps. But perhaps you did as well
Re-read it. Especially the part right after those three’s names were listed.
If he asked for one, it would be one too many. Cease for a year does not net you any of these 3.
No. You just didn’t read correctly. He was inquiring as to one of the three. But even one is a preposterous ask.
At first I thought that cease for westburg would be a good deal since if the O’s keep him then mayo is blocked
Then I saw for one year of cease??? Good for Baltimore for not doing a desperate move and keeping resources for a better deal
They would have never considered Westburg. His value over the next five years of team control at a relatively low rate is at least five times a year of cease. The orioles likely had a nice long laugh over that one.
The White Sox couldn’t even get that for 2 years of Cease. Of course, Getz is an awful GM.
Can’t wait to see SD get a better return for 1 year of Cease than the load of crap the Sox got for two.
Thorpe was pretty good until his elbow started acting up. He and Iriarte have a shot of being a decent return.
Kudos to AJ.
Set
The
Bar
High.
For one year of Dylan Cease???
The fact that he even mentioned Westburg’s name as a potential return for 1 year of Cease is freakin’ hilarious. Dude’s out of his damn mind.
Orioles asked, Padres responded. No one is out of their mind here. Clearly the Padres aren’t willing to trade Cease unless blown away because the Padres aren’t undergoing a budget slashing as some believe (mostly media-enhanced), and they plan to compete for a playoff spot. So, Cease for prospects isn’t likely a compatible swap.
Where does it say that the Orioles asked for Cease? The Padres just as well could have been the team reaching out.
Brew- They might not be undergoing a payroll reduction, but they are clearly strapped for cash, which made the idea of trading Cease’s final year of club control for multiple cheaper pieces pretty logical.
I hope they hold onto him though, and after the Diaz, Joe, and Heyward signings, it seems like they are much more likely to now. They are definitely better with him than without him.
“Strapped for cash”
Not really.
You do realize as you increase payroll you pay more in taxes right? CBT charges you a percentage based on how much you’re over.
Already being over the 1st tax lines every dollar they spend they pay a certain tax percentage on. So Diaz costing 3.5 mill actually costs 4 mill or 4.5 mill or how ever much they pay in taxes.
And once you pass the 2nd and 3rd tier penalties you start getting hit with harder taxes and harder penalties. The first penalty line is 241 mill. Not sure what 2nd or 3rd are but 260ish and 290ish would be my guess but not 100% sure.
Mets for instance hit the 320 mill mark and their 2025 tax bill is already at 80 million.
So are padres strapped for cash? No
Do padres want to be tax payers and go over 241 mill? Probably not.
Do padres want to break 2nd or 3rd tax lines again? Absolutely not.
@brew – so that’s why their top two pitchers are on the market? I think money is an issue, although some of that may be resolved based on MLBs decision on ownership.
@Red. The lead line kind of gives that info away.
They’re on the market cause they don’t want to pay taxes.
People do realize that when you sign players while in cbt payer territory it costs you more money than just the agreed to amount right?
Like signing Diaz to 3.5 million costs the padres 3.5 million plus somewhere between 500k-1mill in taxes
Signing Hayward signing Joe costs them their salaries and however much they’ll pay in taxes.
It amazes me how people assume padres are broke or poor or financially in trouble cause they’re willing to move ceases 14 million plus somewhere contract but 250 mill- 14 mill is 236 mill or 5 mill below the 241 mill 1st tax line
Last year padres traded Soto but then added Cease Scott Arraez etc but didn’t go over the first tax line.
And that’ll probably be the case again
They trade cease
Get under the tax line so they’re not paying extra money in taxes when acquiring guys via free agency or trade
And shoot for additions but not go over 241 mill.
Padres are out of their minds. Don’t overthink it. It’s very simple and transparent.
Do padres want to act like a small market team again and be well under the 1st luxury tax apron like most teams? They probably don’t want to but could do because of the new siedler bros
I agree with your sentiment. But with the Trevor Rogers and Corbin Burnes blunders, it was worth a shot.
Burnes wasn’t a blunder though?
It became a blunder when they didn’t win a WS, didn’t resign him and then decided to replace him with 41 year old Charlie Morton.
That’s not how it works.
The Orioles traded for an ace and got an ace. Just because they didn’t win the World Series doesn’t make it a “blunder.”
The Burnes trade was never a blunder, bud. If he had underperformed, gotten hurt early on last season or even trash-talked the org on his way to AZ, then you might have a point. But you don’t. He did exactly what he was supposed to as an Oriole and then wanted to play close to home with his family. It’s not complex and was a great trade for both orgs.
Joey Ortiz will produce more WAR for the Brewers than Burnes did for the O’s. It’s not some complex formula. Ortiz is 26 and pre arbitration still. You would have his prime years of production extremely cheap. Instead you have an early playoff exit, no ace and now Charlie Morton.
Burnes trade was the right call absolutely
Ortiz had nowhere to play in Baltimore. He was heading into his mid-20s and would have been wasting away as a bench player in Baltimore.
It was a good trade for both teams.
King – I totally agree with you. I’ve made the same defense of Preller trades for years but so many (not all) on this site just can’t comprehend that you trade value for value for what you need to increase your chance of achieving a goal. All of that being the case, only 1 team wins the WS!
What are you saying? He objectively had a better 2024 than every single one of your regular infielders.
I’m sorry, did you just say Joey Ortiz had a better 2024 than Gunnar Henderson?
Because Gunnar Henderson was our regular SS and I’m pretty sure that SS is still considered an infield position.
@BITA, the O’s made Burnes what would have been a franchise-record contract. Burnes took less money to play where he wanted. If the O’s walk on negotiating with Burnes, there’s your blunder; but they are playing with the big boys, in some respects, when it comes to signing players they
Iike.
“Contract offer”
Heck, Westburg got hurt and still had nearly the same WAR as Ortiz.
You’re right he didn’t have a better season than Henderson. Now what about 2nd and 3rd base? It’s a rough argument to convince people you’d rather not have him than have him in 2025.
Bita – keeping Mayo May not be the plan. Just haven’t found the right match to pull the trigger. So, you logic isn’t wrong but application of it may be.
Ortiz doesn’t pitch, so how does that help the O’s pitching staff? They have abundant INF guys so you’re comment if very confusing.
Gunnar, Holliday, and Westburg are our non-1B starting infield.
Ortiz would have been a bench player in Baltimore.
Wrong again, BITA.
Mayo isn’t blocked. He still has to prove he can play a position, any position, at an acceptable MLB level, which he has not done yet.
Because the Orioles think that they have to hold onto both Mountcastle and O’Hearn for some reason. They love blocking the prospects as much as any team.
Burnes was fantastic for them. There weren’t really any aces with multiple years of control available last offseason. You take your shot.
Hank- The Orioles are trying to win a World Series and both Mountcastle and O’Hearn are firmly above average hitters that have clear roles on the roster, while Mayo is an unproven 23 year old with no established position currently. Giving him some more time in AAA to try to learn 1B or RF is a perfectly reasonable choice, especially since we’re also going to be breaking in Holliday this year and handing 2 opening day lineup spots to unproven rookies is a bit risky.
So, because he has no place to play right now, we should trade a brand new Maseratti for the use of a Lamborghini for 1 year? Wow! Just wow.
Men Behaving Adley — Love the name!!
…and agree w/ comment. But double thumbs on name.
Hammer — Mayo will have to earn his job…like folks used to do. He’ll be given plenty of opportunities.
Just like ROY runner-up, Colton Cowser didn’t have a job this time last year.
This is the way.
Because he is not good enough to force his way onto a roster filled with Ford Mustangs, he is more like a Honda Civic Si. Still a sporty model, but not enough to impress the ladies.
Well just give him to SD if that is your way of viewing. How about just maybe, I haven’t gotten an offer that I think equals his value so, I still have him.
If it’s Mayo you are referring to, he’s not a Civic. More like a Lotus Evija
That’s not a blunder at all. Words have meaning. A blunder is a stood or careless mistake. The orioles made a calculated decision. The outcome was unfortunate but there’s nothing they could have done last year. The team was decimated by injuries. It was a lost season. But that post hoc analysis of yours is infantile and inaccurate by even the most orioles-critical measure.
That’s how trades work. You do have to give up something to get something. But looking at war of Ortiz over six years vs 1 of burnes is…idiotic and not the metric by which any person with a brain (or rudimentary understanding of the sport) would assess the trade.
Mayo was 4-for-41 last season and Basallo hasn’t even reached the majors. The Padres are perfectly sane in asking for that return. Westburg is the only lock of the three they’d get in return.
Prospects are all suspects. High percentage of top 10’s never pan out so get off your high horse.
Just another example of prellers asking price.
It’s fair for people to say it’s a ridiculous asking price but it also shows that preller is only willing to trade him for a very high price.
Will see if someone pays up, the padres keep cease or if preller lowers his asking price.
So far it looks like they will be keeping cease.
Preller would sell his own mother for 5 minutes longer of control. I’m dead sure of it.
The organization is so chaotic today they have to default to him wether he is the right/appropriate party or not.
Looks more like a concession to the fans that the Padres, who’ve had plenty of bad press lately with the ownership/running the team stuff out there, that the team is trying…..Cease has been very vocal that he’s going free agent so for the Rock Star GM to ask a ridiculous return isn’t setting the bar….its showing the league not to even engage until/unless he lands back on planet earth with any trade demand…..
I think Cease would be the perfect addition for the Red Sox. At the price Preller is asking that will have to wait for free agency. Mayer plus Abreu, Fitts, and another pitcher is just too much.
I watched Cease’s interviews at their fan fest and on Hosmer’s show hoping to pick up clues as to what his thinking is about the impending free agency and got nothing. When asked, the only thing he said is that he loves San Diego and is focused on this season.
As for Preller, its clear that he doesn’t want to trade Cease. When teams like the Red Sox, Cubs, and Oriole called he set a price high enough that no team would accept and he has apparently not budged.
Cease hasn’t said squat about FA. He has said he would be willing to talk to the Padres about an extension, but because of the way the CBT rules are written, the Padres cannot do that until late April. Most players don’t want to have distractions like contract negotiations during the season.
It shows Preller has realized he depleted his farm system and is trying to get a sucker to replenish it for him.
Mets- nah he isn’t looking for farm hands he is looking for guys who a have upside to help the team in 2025. This isn’t about increasing the farm ratings.
Preller will fix the farm over the next year or so. He always has.
You do realize he can’t be the same GM that had tons of money to spend. He now has to be creative and can’t just overspend for free agents or huge trade packages. If he doesn’t adapt then the Padres are screwed.
Mets- he adapted pretty well last season and they won the second most games in franchise history.
He isn’t going to not try and compete in 2025. He has already said as much. So any moves that go against that he will not make.
Said he will add a bat or two and a starter or two. He added a couple of bats yesterday, look for a couple of starters soon.
He doesn’t need to sign some mega free agent. They already have top talent on the team. They just need to fill in some depth.
Things don’t work out he can unload at the deadline.
Do you really consider Joe and Hayward bats? Padre fans can act happy about those signings but did they move the needle at all?
Mets- they replace Solano and Peralta. At least as far as war value.
So they provide better depth on the team.
Neither will replace the season Profar had last year. There aren’t any free agents left that will.
They will need tatis, Mann, Xander, Arraez, cronenworth types to replace Profar. Which none of them has a great season last year. So there is reason to believe one or the majority of these guys will have a better season in 2025. The big thing will be health.
They are missing about 3-4 war offensively vs a year ago. I think those players can provide that.
Then you have young guys like Tirso and Eguy who could add some additional value.
If they can add some starting depth I feel like this team can be as good as a year ago.
They had 3 regulars in the starting lineup last year that were picked up off the scrap heap for a mil or less and it turned out great.
The Mets had guys like winker and iglesias make big contributions. Almost every team has to cobble together at bats at a position or two.
These things have a way of figuring themselves out.
Are you high? You saying Tatis Manny and arraez had bad seasons last year?
Sure Manny started slow, as usual, but in no way did he arraez or Tatis have poor seasons
Joe is serving as Donovan Solano and Hayward is serving as David Peralta. Are they considered bats? Yes. Platoon bats or bench bats.
Dama- that’s not what I said.
I said none of them had a great season. That’s a fact.
Tatis had a nice season and playoffs, if you exclude missing 55 games. But if healthy he can go far beyond
They’re all projected for better years than last
All 3 of them have had better seasons, Damascus.
That’s the argument. Machado is the only one of those 3 where you’d factor in potential age related decline.
A good part of the depleting was from the soto trade. He gave up let’s see gore,abrams,wood,Hassel and Susanna. Would have been happy with any 3 of the 5.Think everyone except Hassel will have long mlb careers.
And suckers always show up after someone gets injured in ST
Replenish it with a premium prospect? If he wanted to replenish a farm system Preller would ask for a quantity package for cease instead of a quality package.
One elite prospect doesn’t replenish a farm. 5-6 good prospects do.
Give us the good
works on commission? no, money down!
No, money down…
Or no money down!
The O’s can prospecthug all they want, it’s their prerogative.
Until Baltimore actually trades one of their desired prospects, we won’t know what they consider reasonable. They can’t play everyone.
Elias has traded prospects DL Hall, Joey Ortiz, Jackson Baumeister, Mac Horvath, Matthew Etzel, Trey McGough, Zack Showalter, Drew Rom, Cesar Prieto, Seth Johnson, Moisés Chace, Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers in the past year and a half. He also traded the A’s top prospect, Darrell Hernaiz, a few months previously. Busts that “prospect hugging” myth to hell.
Contingency.
That explains why Cease is still on the Padres.
Almost seems like Preller doesn’t want to trade Cease.
Preller must have been smoking that top shelf stuff if he ACTUALLY thought he was getting any of those guys for a 1 year rental lol.
He answered a phone and gave his honest answer when asked what Cease would cost. I doubt that he wants to trade Cease (despite what the media is telling you), and teams are finding that out. But any GM will listen to offers.
Again, where does it say that the Orioles called?
1st sentence.
It could have just as well been an email or text.
In all likelihood, it was a call. These guys have their secretaries set-up the speed dials for a reason…
Saying a team “had interest” in a player does not establish they were the ones to initiate the conversation.
San Diego could have had an intern reach out to the other 29 teams asking: “does your Organization have interest in Dylan Cease?”
If the Orioles responded: “yes” it makes the first sentence of the article true, without them having reached out to anyone.
That’s a rabbit hole, Rogue. I’ll go with Occam’s razor- GMs talk to each other. More often then we might think. A lot more.
Yes, it’s called due diligence. I find the unsubstantiated narrative of “you guys called our guys” disingenuous. Like “your team is desperate, so they called my team, but nothing happened because your team was cheap!”
No one here really knows who called who, or when. Frankly Preller should be calling everyone and their brother, due diligence, if he’s willing to part with Cease. And Elias should be calling everyone with an available top of the rotation guy. Due diligence.
Remember “revocable waivers” back in the day? Cal Ripken went on them every year after the streak ended. Would have been blasphemy if the O’s traded him. Still had to go through the motions. You never know if someone will come along and knock your socks off.
100%!
Come on Os swing a deal. You still have more players than spots. Where you going to put mayo? 1st? Then where you going to put basillo? Can have a rutchman/Basillo catcher DH combo? Os still have plenty of players to offer.
This isn’t how things work. You don’t pay more than you should just because you can
Then explain the Trevor Rogers trade. They paid for years of control instead of talent.
Easy, years of control have cost and the Orioles (wrongly up to this point) thought they could tweak a few things to get his upside back. They did the same thing with Cole Irvin. Lastly, the trade deadline inflates the value of players. I’m not saying to avoid Dylan Cease, I’m saying to not bid against yourself
No one can explain that ridiculous trade.
sadosfan — Tell you what, Cease and Tatis Jr for Westberg. Come on San Diego, you don’t have the budget for expensive players. What are you going to do, go bankrupt? Do you know how pissed Manny will get if he isn’t paid?
(not having a role for rookies and unproven players is not a problem…it’s prudent.)
Orioles dont got the budget either.
They have plenty room to add more salary. They are only ~ $150MM.
Rutschman seemed to really wear down last year so I see a path where Basallo and Adley time share split time probably on 60/40 with both guys also sharing time at DH and possibly 1st especially with Basallo. I think Baltimore sees this and wants to keep Adley fresh. I wouldn’t trade any of those three for Cease if I’m Baltimore certaintly not Westburg. Cease is good but he’s no Burnes and doing a deal headlined by one of those three would be more than the cost for Burnes the superior pitcher.
Way too much for a one year rental. Got burned last year.
No they didn’t.
They didn’t just get burned they got Colbin Burned*
Westburg, Mayo and Basallo.. how about throwing in some ca$h as well.. Reasonable price for a TOR SP with one year remaining before becoming a FA seems to have risen…
Found Preller’s burner
Why not toss in the deed to Oriole Park while we’re at it?
Only 1 of those 3 would be the headliner in a package. I’d do it when you’re as close as Baltimore is, but even 2 of those particular 3 I wouldn’t. Especially Westburg. He’s already an all-star.
The trade request obviously wasn’t for all 3. One would be the headliner along with 1 or 2 other, lower ranked, prospects.
Westburg is more valuable than Cease on his own. I would be asking for Cease and King for Westburg and the Padres might still have to throw in a kicker with them on one year deals.
That makes no sense.
Cease and King for Westburg, Povich, and Suarez would probably be “fair” but I don’t think either team would do that.
Why would it be fair?
Neither Cease nor King alone are worth Westburg, but both together are worth more. Povich and Suarez are a couple of decent arms that would allow them to immediately backfill the 2 newly opened rotation spots, albeit with much lower ceiling guys than the ones they’d be trading away. I think it’s “fair” or at least pretty close.
Like I said though, I do not think either team would seriously consider making that deal, nor would I want the Orioles to and I’d expect most (if not all) Padres fans to feel the same.
Sorry King. That is not close. Westburg was league average last season. A very good hitter whose bad defense dragged his value down in his 2nd season in the majors. He could be a piece in a trade for a TOR starting pitcher. Not the only piece.
BIB- I doubt that any team in baseball would trade Westburg for a 1 year rental, much less Westburg+.
He put up a 129 OPS+ in his first full season (with excellent batted ball metrics and 91st percentile speed) and has 5 years of control left. Yeah, his defense isn’t good now, but he’s extremely athletic and likely to improve with more experience.
As this article and the ones about the Red Sox and Cubs have stated, Preller has been asking for 2-3 MLB players with multiple years of team control plus one Top 20-30 prospect.
Stat_head- This is why one’s choice of words matters. And =/= or.
And before you say “people should have known better,” there are absolutely preposterous proposals posted here all the time, and when the Orioles are involved, “Mayo and Basallo+” is a pretty common one. In fact, prior to the White Sox trading Cease to SD, there was a White Sox fan here who thought Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo+ for Cease was a completely reasonable ask.
Unproven prospects for proven players is how trades work. There were people saying Mayo and Basallo was too much for Skubal last year near the trade deadline. Two guys who have proven nothing for a Triple Crown winner. Fans overvalue their prospects and teams go into prospect paralysis when trading. Being terned “highly rated” as a prospect is no sure things…just look at Torkbas a great example.
He wasn’t according to Harris, but show me a GM who wouldnt at least listen. My point was people on here were going on about it during trade season and overvaluing unproven prospects vs 2.5 years of a Triple Crown/Cy Young pitcher.
This is the way.
They can always just go into the season with a good team, and top of the rotation.
They can trade Suarez, and be right where they want to be payroll wise.
A year of a top 10 pitcher, and a comp pick is better than taking a sub par package.
More likely to repeat the 2023 season and then all free agents leaving at seasons end. No farm to replenish the team and the team in ownership limbo. They should be looking to trade as many of these free agents to be for realistic returns and give the team some sort of competitive chance for the next few years.
lol. You say this as a fan of a team competing with them for a wild card spot.
As currently constructed, they should be right in the wild card mix.
If the offers aren’t good, then holding out, trying to win, and worse case holding him for a bidding war between the desperate contenders at the deadline is not a bad option. Look what the Os paid for a bad pitcher in Trevor Rogers.
We’ve heard people chastise Preller for blowing up the farm, for him to turn around and rebuild it quickly about 3 or 4 times already in his tenure.
You have no idea if the offers were good. People are hanging up the phone as soon as he gives his ridiculous ask. I don’t want the Padres to be bad. I want them to give the Dodgers as much problems as possible but their current roster construction is not going to do that.
This is mostly the same roster that was the only team to take the dodgers to an elimination game.
Good on the Padres for a mega ask.
Good on the Orioles for not engaging madness.
Still think Wilyer Abreu + Kutter Crawford from Boston gets it done for Cease. It’s a more MLB-ready version of the Burnes return and neither are foundational pieces for the Sox
If they’re not foundational pieces… why would we want them?!? Granted, I’m unimpressed with both players “alone” for Cease to begin with…
Proven big leaguers making pennies with 4+ years of control who fill needs for the Padres I guess is my thought. Maybe throw in another Vazquez/brito-esque depth guy?
I guess I’m of the opinion that it’s hard to get teams’ foundational pieces for a 1year rental not named Juan Soto. Even then, we took a chance on King becoming a foundational piece
If the move was consumated, I’d be ok with it if only because I trust AJ, the Scouting Dept. and the rest of the coaching staff to do right. As is, I don’t like it. Just me!
That actually sounds reasonable.
I was going to comment with this exact trade. Kutter could benefit from a more pitcher friendly place which I think Petco is. Abreu has some good potential and had a good rookie season but the Sox have an OF logjam.
I’m not sure what the Padres really need, but I think the trade benefits both teams.
Abreu just won a gold glove and put up a decent offensive season (114 Ops+, 3.4 bWAR).
Abreu may not be seen as a foundational piece (ie Anthony, Mayer, even Campbell) but he should be a solid major league for years to come. He’s good enough to make a few all star games.
If it would have gotten the deal done, we would have seen Cease at Fenway Fest. Morosi said during the Winter Meetings that when Breslow called about Cease, Preller asked for Mayer, Abreu, Fitts, and Gonzalez.
Well we went like 2-3 days this time that’s a little better.
To be fair, this is actually news, not just speculative clickbait.
I think we discussed this potential ask earlier, Flocher… and as we both stipulated previously- perhaps a no deal is a good deal. Keep your youngins if’n y’all got the 40 space… but at some point you might be hugging ’em too much! Cheers fellas
Gwynning- Yeah, I just don’t see a good match here, no matter how hard MLBTR writers try to make something happen.
What has he done for ’25? Who has he moved? Which top prospect went where? Again, I’m not critiquing the man, he seems to be running his own team fairly well, and more power to him. Keep who you wanna keep, that’s your (his) prerogative. As long as you got the 40 Man space and you don’t have a roster squeeze coming…
Gwynning I think you’ve just become very accustomed to the AJ Preller GM’ing style. Elias has traded a lot of prospects relative to the rest of baseball. It’s just not comparable to Preller who is 1 of 1 on that front.
Elias is right up there with the other clubs not in SD w/ prospects that he’s dealt away over the last year.
It’s news about old news about the most clickbaited rumor of the season.. And with recent FA signings, the odds of the Padres listening to trade offers for Cease, especially for prospects, is now fading even more. Clearly the Padres are not desperately broke as everyone insisted, and if anything, seem to be competitive and willing to exceed the CBT a bit.
@king floch. Speculative news from early December not saying they didn’t call. Obviously they moved on. The padres told them no without saying it straight up. The rumors every day come from this.
Prospects so rarely work out that if I’m as close as Baltimore is, I’m coming off one of those. They have Ruschman so the catcher I’d offer as a headliner. Better than sitting on them and going nowhere significant
I’m not 100% opposed to trading Basallo for a starter, but no way in hell does he get traded for a 1 year rental.
But a young, controllable SP like Jared Jones? Yeah, that might work.
Let’s be real. Very few to zero fans of other teams would agree to what Preller has been asking for. Basallo is one of the best prospects in the game.
Never hurts to ask but I don’t even think Preller expected them to trade any of those guys. Though if any it would be Mayo. Teams have to make a decision on prospects if they feel they will reach their ceilings or trade them before their value falls off.
For example the padres traded snelling and lesko last year. If they traded them the year before they would have had more value. This is one of the hardest jobs for a GM.
I dont think Mayo will be the big star Baltimore fans keep acting like he will be. Its early, but honestly only gunnar has lived up to the prospect hype. If adley can bounce back, great, but that second half was embarrassing. Westburg, cowser, Grayson, all good, not great so far in their young careers. Holliday and mayo looked lost, but that can happen to anyone early on. Cue oriole fans berating my views.
Why would they trade Jones for a prospect who is a future DH and has proven nothing yet?
Simm- That certainly could be the case.
MCBB- Basallo is one of the top prospects in the game right now. He’s done nothing but excel against much older, much more experienced competition.
Exactly. He’s a prospect who has been awesome in the minors. Just like Tork was. Jones has proven himself in the majors and is worth way more.
Yeah, I’m thinking a better trade for the O’s would be to get Castillo or Alcantara. They’ve got the prospects to get either one of those and gain reasonable salary control on either one for a few years. As much as I would like to see the Padres get another haul for trading Cease, I think for the O’s it doesn’t make as much sense. I think the Padres should be knocking on the Mets door about Cease if they really want to trade him but then again that’s offering a TOR pitcher to one of their playoff competitors. Mets might take the risk with the thought they can pay whatever Cease wants to be a long term asset.
It’s almost like MLB teams use actual math to determine the probability of a range of outcomes for each prospect/player.
Hint: top 10 bats at age 20 do not “rarely” work out.
Using Baseball America lists of Top 100 prospects and a definition of “work out” as having 3 or more seasons of MLB average WAR prior to becoming a free agent, 102 of 310 top 10 prospects or 33% have met that criteria.
I used Baseball America because they have been doing top 100 lists since 1990. MLB.com started doing a top 100 list in 2004.
I used 3 or more years of MLB average WAR because that is the definition of an impact player used by sources including Baseball America and MLB.com in articles discussing their top 100 prospects list.
I would offer Kjerstad and Kremer for Cease. SD would most likely say no, and that’s the end it.
The Orioles should say no to that offer.
I’m a Pads fan, and I’d accept that deal.
Kjerstad, Kremer and Brandon Young for cease and Boston Bateman.
Orioles would actually get a high upside 19 year old starting pitcher that they won’t draft.
Again, I’d accept that offer. Seems like a slight overpay by the O’s, but if the Pads added someone like Kolek, it seems about right.
They don’t draft HS pitchers because they don’t want to use talent acquisition capital on them.
They don’t draft pitchers in the first 5 rounds at all.
Kiefer Lord and the traded Jackson Baumeister is all. That’ll have to change at some point or we’ll be buying pitching like Sugano and Morton forever.
Counterpoint, it is more efficient to buy the arms.
I think that used to be true (more efficient to buy arms) but I think we are seeing a shift. Pitching prices have gone through the roof recently and I think teams will need to actually develop their own or pay a premium for them.
I don’t believe a minor league pipeline that doesn’t develop pitching is sustainable over the long term. Elias inherited arms from Duquette and has obviously made some nice deals himself to get some in. But I don’t believe we can avoid that in the draft like we have.
Which I think will be evident next season.
Kittredge, Dominguez, Soto, Sugano, Eflin and Morton will all be free agents. There’s not nearly enough internally to replace all that. Pitching will be a significant expenditure next offseason.
Jbigz12 — Sure, Elias hasn’t drafted pitching early in draft but he has been remarkabley dynamic in acquiring MLB level pitching. From trades, to waiver wire, to lost cost diamonds in the rough.
While he hasn’t drafted pitchers, he has been buying the International arms. The lower levels of the organization have a bunch of young arms.
The ‘method’ of getting arms may be different, but the ‘results’ are arguably better than any previous GM regime.
Check out Nestor German and Michael Forret. They draft these guys, just not with Day 1 picks.
Forret is good. But again there’s not enough invested at this point.
I hear you guys talking about IFA’s but it’s the same strategy there too. The larger bonuses we hand out are to hitters in that market also.
At some point in time you have to put some more investment into the pitching angle or we’re going to be buying free agent starters in perpetuity. I don’t believe that’s going to be extremely successful.
The O’s aren’t going to spend $200MM on a TOR starter in all likelihood. If we are—it’ll happen once. We won’t have multiple $100MM arms in a rotation.
To get guys with that ultimate TOR upside I believe we’ll need to invest in that more heavily. Pitchers are inherently more risky but so are some of these position players we invest heavily in.
Guys like Honeycutt and Fabian had/have huge hit tool question marks. Very risky players that might become absolutely nothing. That was known when drafted. Even though our OF situation is much stronger organizationally.
I believe we need to use some of those bullets on pitching prospects with that kind of upside. They bust at a higher rate but we’ve set ourselves up nicely with a position players base.
I wouldn’t do Kjerstad and Kremer for Cease, but if I had to choose between having:
A. Cease, Stowers and Norby
Or
B. Rogers, Kjerstad and Kremer
Well… I’d just say I think Elias picked the wrong one.
I would cough up Rutschman….but you gotta be kidding me about anything else really
Seriously? Fine, we’ll settle at Rutschman for Cease. This might be a Burger King cuz you’re gettin’ it your way today.
Hahah I am serious…maybe more would need to be involved…but I would do it
More like Lefty your brain in the car.
I’m driving Dylan to Lindbergh Field right meow… red lights be damned!
Why Sorengo?
I would rather trade Rutschman rather than Westy and basically the prospects that the Padres inquired about
Dylan is on Flight 875 direct to Dulles. Please provide adequate transpo… oh and don’t forget to bubblewrap Rutsch for the trip west!
Hahahaha I had no idea you were such a Rutschman fan Gwynning
@gwynning. I’ll give you some chicken fries if the padres accept merrill for trout. My guess is cease will get a burnes return for a deadline trade. Kikuchi got a big return for the jays, and he was a half season rental. I know you this but nothing is uniform it’s not mlb the show, and yes trade simulator is about the same.
You had me at chicken fries, Huddy! Haha
Concur about the TDL “scenario”
Let’s just get there and see what’s up!
Bruh.
It’s a done deal Flocher. You should have gotten out of bed sooner if you didn’t want Lefty trading away the best catcher in the game!
Well, poop 🙁
At least we still have the Sanchise…
And a new Ace, albeit in rental status. Extend this one! 😉
Cease, Suarez, Peralta, Cronenworth, and Salas for Adley, Mayo, Suarez, and Kremer. Get it done AJ lol!
Remove Salas and Mayo and I’m down. Sucks for the Pollos Hermanos but fire when ready…!
Wouldn’t need Salas if we got Adley though..and Mayo would plug right in at 1b..plus, the Pads would get their 4 and 5 starters, and the O’s get their “ace”, bullpen help and a Swiss Army knife in Cronenworth.
It’s clearly a justifiable trade, but I wouldn’t do it. Just a gut call! And you always need catchers. Plus all 3 (including Campy) play a good 1B.
Ron — All due respect,…nobody wants Croneworth.
That’s a bed y’all are going to have to sleep in.
Oh yeah, and the Orioles would decline that trade offer. Emphatically.
Tigers have enough top end (ML ready) depth to do a deal. I just don’t think Harris would for 1 season of Cease. Doesn’t matter to me as a Tigers fan. I like our pitching depth myself
Before they signed Flaherty it would have made sense. Unless there is a path to trade a pitcher for a good young 3B and sub Cease into the rotation.
Did they think they had blackmail photos on Elias?
Could’ve prevented this by extending Burnes, Orioles.
Dark side, Burnes was never – ever going anywhere but AZ.
They should have realized that before trading for him. They need pitchers that are around for a few years.
@metsin4, I’m sure Burnes et al are so dumb they’d let other GMs know what they’re really thinking as far as future negotiations go so that they can dummy down their ability to earn a competitive salary. But thanks for participating.
Hey news flash. Organizations should do a little research before acquiring a player. They new they had zero shot at resigning him.
Ah, yes, the Orioles could’ve simply forced Burnes to take more money than he got in AZ, where he wanted to be with his family.
I still think a Braves package around Ian Anderson and maybe Smith-Shawver makes a lot of sense for both teams. Think that would put the Braves just over the tax line, which they probably don’t want to do at this point.
Ian Anderson has almost no value at this point. He’s a third/fourth piece in acquiring anything.
Though he still tours and can leap into the air and catch the flute behind his back like nobody’s business
Well, he’s Too Old to Rock ‘n’ Roll & Too Young to Die!
“My team’s fringe spare parts for your TOR arm.”
The lack of situational awareness in these comments is staggering.
Sorengo, When I first started commenting here a couple of months ago that was my thought too.
sorengo99 & Baseballisthebest;
Most of the posters on here think MLB is all about statistics and narratives. It’s basically rotisserie league for real.
Doubt many watch games, just highlights.
They think every off-season is similar to a rotisserie league draft, so all that matters is getting veteran players…..that will never have a bad season or get injured.
It’s comical and not worth arguing over.
Ian Anderson’s stuff just wasn’t there last year. There’s a reason one of the best playoff pitchers in modern history was passed over for other arms last year. You cant really say he was out with injury at that point, either, because he was logging starters innings in AAA.
Hes certainly young enough that you hope for a bounce back after a normal offseason. But you don’t pay for that, you ask for it to fill out the bottom of a trade package or inexchange for another equally distressed asset.
Good lord, some of you are completely missing the fact that AJ didn’t ask for all three for Cease..He just checked in on each of those three players.
Ron — …or, maybe you missed the point. None of those players will the Orioles trade.
Each of those players is greater than the Burnes deal.
It’s laughable to expect any of those players.
AJ just answered the phone and was asked who it might take
You don’t actually know that. For all you know he called. “Hey, you want Cease?”
“Sure, we’re interested, what’s the ask?”
“I’m thinking a deal headlined by a guy like Mayo or Westburg.”
:click followed by dialtone:
Even if the Friars added an additional player or players. That’s a big overpay for a rental.
Quite a stretch to claim Baltimore “depleted” their minor league depth for Burnes. They’re quite well stocked with talent
Biggest impact on their farm rankings is graduations.
AJ Preller is out of his mind if he’s thinking the Orioles would give up any of those three for one year of Dylan Cease. They got one year of Corbin Burnes for less than that no offense to Ortiz and Hall. You might be able to get Dylan Beavers or Jud Fabian and Chance McDermott for one year of Cease but unless Cease agrees to more than one year you are not gonna get Mayo or Kjerstad let alone Basallo and Westburg.
No one is out of their mind. AJP picked up the phone and was asked what Cease would cost. The Pads are competing for a playoff spot, last thing they want to do is deplete their rotation of an ace unless they’re completely blown away. Orioles probably need a more realistic trading partner.
Ethan Salas is overrated
Lol
He hit .206 last year….Padres mismanaged him and over-promoted him. Hopefully his psyche isn’t permanently damaged.
Lol
more LOL
Very overrated. Shouldn’t even be sniffing top 100 prospect list.
Lol, y’all are comedians again! I like it.
Bro, he’s 18. Cracking the top 100 is a testament in itself to his unrefined tools.
Or that prospects shouldn’t really be ranked until they do something especially young players out of high school or international signings. A .599 OPS in the low minors is not good even for an 18 year old. He is exactly the same as Cartaya. Heading for a DFA and release.
Lol
I’m ecstatic that you don’t like him, metsin4000. That means he’s going to be great! We’ll take that.
Wonder if Preller would take Acuna, Butto and Tidwell package if he can’t pry away a top prospect?
Given his asks from other teams…I’d say zero chance.
Rumors be asked for sproat, Jett and acuna from the Mets.
This may sound crazy to you but it’s no crazier than his asks from other teams.
Nah, Stearns isn’t doing that. I was thinking something along the lines of Acuna, Megill, and Gilbert. Of course Preller wants more but I doubt anyone offers better than that, and if they do, it’s too much. This is one year of a very good starter but not a Cy Young winner. Burnes was a better pitcher than Cease when he got dealt last year.
Simm, on NESN they were saying Preller asked for Sproat, Megill, and two other MLB ready players.
I don’t think he wants to trade Cease.
I’d do Cease and Suarez for Peterson, Butto, and Acuna with a prospect or two also heading to the Mets. The Mets could easily re-sign one, if not both of Cease and Suarez, and the Padres get two mid-back end starters, plus allow Arráez to DH full time, and slide Cronenworth back to 1st.
A top 10 SP and a Top 5 closer for back of the rotation filler and a prospect that won’t make the opening day roster? I’m sure Breslow could top that offer. Craig! Make the call.
I think Peterson and Butto both have #2 starter upside..and as for Acuna? I see him more as a depth piece with some upside. As a Pads fan, I’d take that deal in a second.
(Keep in mind the Pads would be saving about 20m)
Read what this site said about Peterson. Worse than average SO%, BB%, EV, and HH rate in 2024. His FIP points to regression in his ERA in 2025 and as a starter in his 5-year MLB career, he has a 4.17 ERA and 97 ERA+. He is just below league average. A #4 starter that can occasionally pitch like a #3.
Butto is listed as a reliever on the Mets depth charts. Enough said.
Acuna would be the throw in on most trades and Preller is asking for top of the organization prospects.
Sprout, Megill, Mauricio/Acuna, and Parada gets it done.
Have the Dodgers been suggested yet?
Yeah, FTD.
Trade conversations with Orioles seem to be:
Other team: we have the cost-controlled ace you want. All it’ll cost is one of your top three prospects…and another of your top 7…and of your top 10.
O’s: Interesting. Counterproposal: Our 6th best prospect, a pitcher who hasn’t done anything yet, and a sandwich pick.
O’s fans: That’s ludicrous! Each of those pieces are more valuable than their so-called ace will be! I wouldn’t give them an actual sandwich for this bum!
Later, O’s fans: Hey, why is Kjerstad still here if we’re never gonna use him?
Bingo bango bongo, hyrax!
hyrax — Huh? What Orioles fan here is saying Bradford Jr, Beavers, McDermott, Povich, or Fabian AREN’T available, or, are to valuable to trade. (Those #4-10 prospects)
All I’ve been reading is Orioles fans having a pretty good grasp of value.
Non-Orioles fans keep saying Kjersted, Mayo, Basallo…and every piece of news and has indicated they are not being talked about within the Organization for Cease.
Did you read the article?
O’s- you called, we answered, you asked, we said what it takes, you winced at the ask, we kindly said call us back if you change your mind, you said goodbye and so did we. We’re all friends here.
Gwynning — Friends indeed! We on the same page.
I didn’t cotton to the O’s fans reaction comment. Not too many silly Orioles posters these days. Used to be a vipers nest on here among O’s fans. Just saying anything positive about the Orioles used to get snarky “Warehouse Employee”, “Orange kool-aid’ comments.
But yes, Orioles and Pads talked, and there wasn’t a match on values. No harm no foul, everyone just doing what’s good for them and their teams/Organizations. Play Ball! 🙂
Good luck in ’25 amigo! We love your Orange Birds around these parts… cheers!
Thanks man back you! Big fan of the Pads (as a lot of Marylanders are) because of Manny and now Jackson Merrill!! ((Even though Merrill grew up a Yankees fan which, obviously, has put his mortal soul in jeopardy.))
Padres are easily the most likeable NL West team. Give heck Pads!!
Seems the article wants to tell us who isn’t available but not who is. They probably don’t have the information. I just don’t see two GMs talking trade without getting to names that might work. Obviously, they didn’t agree instantly, but I’d be surprised if the conversation didn’t end with something along the lines of “let me think on it” or “I’ll get back to you.”
Your interpretation of what I said is baseless speculation, no? Either way Ra, perhaps you’re reading into it too much. The talk happened. If that’s how you’d rather discuss this then so be it.
Mayo for cease isn’t that far off surplus value wise. Mayo probably has a bit more, but this is the only cheap, top of the rotation arm on the market. You have to expect Preller to win on surplus value.
Mayo has no where to play.
vpsd — Colton Cowser last year “didn’t have a place to play” until he hit his way into the line-up, and finished runner-up ROY.
Other than Jackson Holiday, the Orioles have slow played/not handed a job to their prospects. They earned their roles.
Mayo will have to earn it, like he should, and then he’ll have a job.
Letting top prospects just have a full time job hasn’t worked out that well; from Jackson Holiday to Spencer Torkelson.
Worked ok for Jackson Merrill though…?!? Perhaps there is no “set” way to go about this stuff! I’ll kindly repeat this here, but all prospects are suspects until proven otherwise.
The Cubs have put themselves in a tough position by trading a premium prospect for a rental in Tucker and to do that again for another rental like Cease would be reckless. if Hoyer is sacrificing the future just to save his job, he should be fired.
That’s the thing about being pot committed. When you’ve already paid the price on Tucker, and he’s no guarantee to return, you pretty much have to go for it.
Give up, Preller. It’s February 8. The widow of Peter Seidler interfered with the Roki Sasaki and Jurickson Profar negotiations. She’s trying to extort the team.
Sooo… just give up? Sage advice from the resident Hall of Shamer!
Clearly the teams made a mistake by not asking the know it all fans to arrange the trade with all the dumb fan trade ideas
Pods won’t trade Cease absent a huge haul. That would accelerate decline in attendance expected now in 2026 as Seidlers convert team to the Pirates of the West
Towinagain, that you buddy?!? Get tired of talking to nobody on your blocked account?!?!
I feel like Dean Kremer should be part of offers for high-end SPs. Not 1 for 1 necessarily but he can have value. The Os have like 8 #4 or #5 SPs. Dean is cheap, which SD needs and he can step onto a team who wants to contend and deliver something for multiple years. I mean I think SD should not want to trade Cease but they are talking. Its about money. So Dean gives them financial relief and years and can make the roster. Not like you can trade an ace for another ace with 3 years of control. SD needs a replacement SP and better to have an MLB ready guy if you are trying to win. With a new SP, Os need him less. They can always sign a 1 year #4 or #5 next year if there is a hole which seems to be the preference over extending or signing front of the rotation starters.
Mountcastle can be a similar MLB ready chip with 2 years of control where the Os have a lot of other options and guys they can try at that position with Kjerstad Mayo Basallo.
Think those two and 1 or 2 non top 100 prosepects is a nice pull for SD. I would even see if there is appeal for SD in major salary relief by including Arraez. Think he can be flipped between 1st 2nd on a Jackson off-day and DH. Maybe Mayo in the discussion for the two. He does not have a spot and his first look was not impressive. I get that many start rough but many prospects dont realize the potential and guys like Westburg Kjerstad clearly can play at the MLB level.
Judging solely from current payroll, it seems to me that the Orioles need cheap more than the Padres.
@baseball Lol Padres need cheap! Connor Joe and Heyward baby!
More likely would be something like Mountcastle, McDermott and a prospect like Austin Overn and Padres throw in a prospect like Lamar King.
For a 1 year rental of a Boros client? LOL
Tigers should offer Tork and Mize, steep price but would make the Tigers a tough opponent for everyone in baseball with Skubs, Flaherty, Cease, Olson, and Cobb etc. to face every night! Old timers say that you win with pitching and defense, and with their bullpen and this rotation, plus the defense they possess, they should be amazing. If the offense picks up a little bit, they could be hard to beat.
It’s pretty clear that San Diego is intent on moving Cease, and I doubt Preller will wait until the deadline since the return will be lower than what he’ll get right now. I expect something to happen here in the next week… Orioles, Mets, and Cubs are likely matches.
Not unless he backs off his asking price.
Seems pretty clear me Preller isn’t going to trade Cease unless he finds a ‘can’t say no’ offer from a team.
That Preller asked for those prospects from the Orioles makes sense given that we already knew that he asked for Mayers from the Red Sox and Shaw from the Cubs. Judging from the level of prospects that Preller has asked each team for, its evident that he has no intention of trading Cease.
Personally, I would say that’s a bad decision on his part. They almost certainly won’t win that division and there are lots of NL teams better set up for success this year. I guess they could get lucky and sneak into a wild card spot, but the odds are long and watching Cease and King leave after the season, in addition to an expensive and aging roster, is gonna put them in purgatory for awhile.
They rolled the dice last year and it almost worked… I think if the Pads had won that Dodger series they would have ended up as the 2024 world champs. Oh well.
If they don’t win the WS—-letting Cease and King walk at year end and also being over the luxury tax is a nightmare situation.
They’ll get 2 picks after the 4th round and have the worst rotation in baseball next season (with guys under contract)
They won’t be over the CBT
Vpsd, I don’t think there is any way the Padres get under $241 million this season. With the 2 additions yesterday, trading Cease alone would not be enough.
First of all, all of the different payroll trackers have different numbers. None of them are very good, and I’m betting the one you’re looking at has some incorrect line items in there.
Secondly, Suarez is 9m on his own.
You can deal other contracts with prospects if need be around the deadline. It happens every year.
We’re talking about AAV for CBT purposes. It’s 9.2 bc you factor in the 2 additional years at 8m if he does not opt out.
No other team in MLB (other than the LAD) could expect to win the NL West, all other teams would be playing for WC spot. Such is the Padres goal in 2025 while they have 9 allstars on the team. They’re not rebuilding now so they won’t be trading aces to contenders like Baltimore. Contenders will likely only offer propects in trades so I don’t see these two teams being good fits on a trade.
Camikey, the Padres are 6th on MLB Power Rankings. They are a very strong team. Better than my Red Sox. They won’t have to get lucky to be in wild card round. That is the expectation.
With the current playoff setup, just getting to the WS is a crapshoot.
I think there are a few other NL teams that would differ with you statement of “they won’t have to get lucky to be in the wild card round”….the NL East and Central have strong contending teams….in the NL East, the Braves, Phillies and Mets will have something to say about playoffs, as will the Diamondbacks in your division, as well as the Central with the Brewers and improved Cubs teams…..you can puff your chest out all you want about the Pads as that what fans do but the NL wildcards will be a hotly contested contest with no guarantees as to who’s getting in…and with the Daimondbacks and Dodgers in your back yard the Pads have their work cut out for them……Power rankings get clicks….there’s a 162 game schedule that determines who gets there.
Pads have such a top heavy team that if one of King or Cease goes down you’re completely screwed. Then you’re relying on older players like Machado, Darvish, and Bogey. So things could obviously goes south there.
Worse case scenario for them is that they’re hovering around .500 in July and they don’t duck under the line. That’d be brutal to not get any decent comp back for their QO’d players.
Take the time. Do a comparison position by position. Padres are a team that is expected to make the playoffs.
LMAO
The Orioles prospect hoard like no other. Must be tough to be on the farm but blocked. If only some of their upper level prospects were pitchers, they’d be set.
The Orioles need a TOR guy but really? This is when you need one of those old AT&T rotary phones you could really slam the receiver onto-KABLAMM!
That said, for a team’s GM who hasn’t been to the Green Dragon apparently as much as Preller, the Orioles need a TOR guy, and Kremer, Mountcastle, Mullins all there for the taking. I would only consider Kjerstad, Mayo, or Basallo if an extension was signed. Hell, throw in Mateo…
The Orioles can’t play everyone, either. Kind of shooting themselves in the foot for competitiveness blocking all the MLB ready talent while they are highly desired. Prospects can play their way off the platform with an injury while rotting an extra year in AAA.
Thornton — Nobody is being blocked. They’ll be called up for a taste, and assessments will be made. If they can play at the big league level, they will play.
Westberg and Colton came up and got sporadic playing time until they earned it. Even Holliday they gave a taste, he wasn’t ready, and he went down.
These aren’t the 2019 Orioles where kids could play through mistakes and learn on the job.
Nothing wrong with (and arguably something totally right with) making players earn it. Competition is the name of the game, in a game of competition!
I would argue that Kjerstad has been blocked, and still might be. Elias is def playing depth, because of what we experienced last season. But the thing with promising young guys is that they get stale after a while, esp if their clock started and they don’t deliver.
None of Kjerstad’s performance thus far is really his fault. Most of it is fluky stuff to do with pandemic years, myocarditis, concussions from beanballs to the face. But it doesn’t change the fact that, at some point, for other teams they see a 25+ yr old prospect and they’re comparing it to the latest hot wave of 20-23 yr old prospects. And they’d rather pay the high price for the guys they have more time on. So the leverage wanes. At some point we have to make a decision on guys, or else the market makes it for us.
The guys you mentioned had sporadic year, and then followed it up with an effective breakthrough season. Kjerstad can still do that, but he needs to get that chance.
Rising — I think a decision has been made; they are keeping him. When he plays, he performs like the #2 overall pick with LH 70 grade pop.
I’d counter that prospects lose their value when they don’t perform.
Can you offer an example of a player that was blocked, lost their “value” even though they did perform well?
There is still the DH, and Heston isn’t blocked by anyone playing that. He then plays the OF when someone needs a day.
This narrative about ‘wilting procpects’ is just noise. Productive players have roles and value.
Rising — I should say too, he isn’t untouchable/untradable…just not for 1 year of any pitcher in the League.
A young, controlable, and productive Starting Pitcher, then sure there’s a discussion.
Have no doubt that Heston will play as many games as he’s productive and healthy.
DL Hall and Joey Ortiz was about the same age range and similar mixtures of lack of playing time, none of it their faults. And they got dealt. I’m not suggesting Kjerstad isn’t a good player, or couldn’t be great one day.
I’m just saying that, there is an imaginary psychological barrier, supported by the pre-arb/3 yr arbitration clock, where players who reach around 25-26, and they’re perceived value starts to work against them if they haven’t yet broken through. We have a lot of great stories of young guys who come through on the Orioles, but there is a point where all those stories start working against themselves. Like, the Westburg’s, Cowser’s, Gunnar’s, etc..they start to occupy spots, and less chances are left for someone else to pop.
I’m not someone who says we need to deal Kjerstad. I’m just saying there’s a point where your great super prospects start to work against you. And you need to convert them to capital that helps the team, or else you’re just losing value, and you end up letting them go for less than you want down the line, when you have no choice. The bigger picture should be about the overall team, not just one particular prospect.
No he wasn’t.. Kjerstad didn’t start everyday. If you mean he played as a pinch hitter later in the game, then maybe. But I don’t think he ever started a single week straight in 2024.
I understand why some want to push back on the narrative that the Os have to trade Kjerstad and that he’s blocked. I think they can find him ABs. And he just needs to get hot and force the issue. But I’m also not going to deny reality. Last year Kjerstad didn’t start everyday. He may have had stints in the majors where he’d start 2-3 games a week, but no more than that.
Where do ya’ll want me to take this one?
They’ve got something against Kjerstad. They went and got Tony Kemp at the last minute last spring for no reason and were still holding onto freaking roster spot occupier Ryan McKenna. Then they pushed Hays out of the way after bringing Cowser up but then go and get roster spot occupier Austin Slater. Now O’Neill replaces Santander and they’ve picked up Laureano who can play OF along with O’Hearn.
Norby was MLB ready last year, and it was smart to trade him to get Burnes before he lost value either sitting on the bench or wasting in AAA. Mayo has nothing else to prove at AAA but has Mountcastle and O’Hearn in front of him at 1B, those two, Rutschman, and Kjerstad fighting for DH at bats.
Contending Orioles teams have given hot prospects time to play through mistakes and learn on the job: Manny Machado 2012, Cal Ripken 1982, Eddie Murray 1977.
I don’t call Mountcastle, Mullins, or O’Hearn irreplaceable, and not worth blocking Mayo and Kjerstad for if someone wants to give up pitching for them. They are slightly above average players who bring something, but they are not world beaters. Let alone roster spot occupiers like Laureano, or those guys they always seem to have like McKenna or Kemp or Ryan Flaherty or someone like Mateo who we all know can’t hit.
I almost feel like they are trying to 1996 this season. Try and do everything they can on offense (which was #2 or 3 last year) because they know they don’t have – and refuse to get – the pitching. They were very average (#6-8 in most metrics, 10 in ERA+) and the bullpen was better than the rotation. They were able to batter enough opponents in 1996 to make the playoffs and (GASP) win a series.
Elias is just burned by being caught without lineup options and lack of depth late last year.
He’s obviously trying to stack up that card for Spring Training, and going to stash as much as he can in the minors. The reason why a lot of these guys feel like projects or fringe, is because those are the only types you’ll likely get thru the waiver without being claimed once Spring Training cuts and roster spots start moving around.
Every now and then you do run into a Cano or Suarez with these moves. In fact, Elias has run into a hidden gem every year he’s GM-ed the Os. So I give him the benefit of the doubt here. If he’s good at one thing, it’s being a strong evaluator of baseball talent.
This is getting pretty close to the price tag you place on a player that you don’t want to trade.
Yeah. Agree. A real trade that is realistic should feel like it hurts a lil for both sides. This feels very lopsided to me for a walk year rental.
If the Pads were to get one of Westburg, Basallo, or Mayo, they’d deal a walk year guy in exchange for settling a key position for the future w a solid major leaguer, with potential for All-Star caliber performance. The Os dealt less for Burnes last year who was in the same walk-year scenario.
@Ra. You are absolutely incorrect. A team that trades for a player that is helpful now might lose a player that might be helpful later when they could have used that younger player. You sometimes sacrifice the future for the opportunity you have now. That’s the pain that is being thought of. There is nothing apparent but deceptive about that. It’s just obvious.
@ra Semantics. Losing Joey Ortiz and DL could be described as being “hurt”to some, esp. in coming years. Don’t read it so literally. The larger point is that you have to give up value to get value. That’s all he was saying.
Despite your statement of semantics, your sound like you agree more with me. I said there is hurt in a trade that might go back and forth. You describe it as losing value to gain value. He described that hurt as a myth. It sounds like to me it’s you playing with semantics.
I do agree with you. That’s why my comment was addressed to Ra. Not you.
Orioles like a good garage sale and treat retail as if was on the front lawn.
Not sure what this exactly means. But ok. I like a good analogy.
Lol
Samuel Basallo is considered the best catching prospect in baseball right now. Ethan Salas is an excellent prospect, but if they were to acquire Basallo, he should be the lead guy since Basallo is close to MLB ready at age 20, and most of his value has been demonstrated performance, not just potential.
If the Padres were to hypothetically have both Basallo and Salas, long term Salas is the catcher. Basallo isn’t terrible defensively, but his ranking is about the bat. He keeps growing and he’ll end up at first, anyway.
His arm is seen as a 70 grade and defense is considered above average, and potential to be pretty good. That’s not nothing.
That said, it’s certainly would be an embarrassment of riches. That that said, there’s no way he’s dealt.
Basallo has a 70-grade arm, 45-grade defense. 50 is average. Hitting, especially for power, is his calling card. Most in the scouting business think he will be a 1B in the majors. He is listed as a C/1B on all the prospect lists.
If what a catcher does behind the plate was all he had to do, Salas would be in the majors today at 18. His defense, game calling, and preparing his pitchers is off the charts good.
His hitting needs to come around, but we have seen in spurts that he is capable of hitting as well.
@websoulsurfer Your scouting report feels a little old. His recent defensive grades is actually 55. He’s improved a lot the last year. Considering the rest of that package, I’ll take that. There’s a reason why many regard him to be the best catching prospect in baseball.
He’s listed as C/1B because he’s literally playing 1B for positional flex. The Os have a franchise cornerstone guy named Adley at C. And they’re trying to find a way for Basallo to have more ways of getting into the everyday lineup. Targeting probably late this season, 2025. Also, the current 1B Mountcastle is going to reach free agency a year after Basallo arrives.
i dont know what preller is smoking. but id like some of it.lol.the orioles dont need cease that bad.we will find somthing at the trade deadlline.i might give up mayo and a lower prospect.but the other two are off the table.however i still say id like some of what they r smoking in san diego.
OMG yes and move Cronenworth to…first base
thats basically what the white sox asked the orioles for when cease was making less money and had more team control.
not sure the orioles are at the desperation level to make this kind of move.
I think elias missed some opportunities to make trades. They still have a great young core but after basallo and mayo the system is pretty weak.
If they had packaged norby, kjerstadt and povich in the 23/24 off season they could have gotten a big haul.
Now they are in a situation where they have a few untradable pieces and pretty mediocre pieces they would trade
They’ve pretty much promoted a massive haul of guys who all have seemed to hit the last 3 years straight. Any farm is going to diminish with that kind of production.
Not sure what the mediocre pieces you’re talking about.
Cease was also coming off a season with a 4.58 ERA, not one with a 3.47 ERA.
Agreed. Cease has a lot of value right now, but before he was traded by the white Sox, he was coming off a season where he showed some weakness. Last year was his comeback.
Negative. The Burnes trade did nothing to the depth they used to have. They depleted their minor league system (or at least the illusion of a deep system) at last year’s horrific trade deadline and by not trading some of their prospects before letting them get exposed. After all the struggles they’re not nearly as intriguing as they were before.
They only made the Burnes trade because the cost like everything else they do, was cheap. SD isn’t going to do them any favors. But again it would be the Orioles trading for a number one with no years left.
So hypothetically if they make this trade they’ll be scraping the bottom of the barrel and crying broke all over again with even less prospects to play around with. Because after all you know they’re not resigning player x, y and z. None of those letters are used to spell Ryan O’Hearn BTW so he’s safe, always safe.
IMO they’ve already blown it. This is the Oriole way. Win in spite of yourself and not commit to win regardless of the ownership group. It’s pathetic.
The only thing pathetic is the amount of replies I see that you left on this page. And in regards to the ignorant comment that’s just your hurt showing. You do love your team don’t you? Awww. Isn’t that sweet.
You do know that you’ll still have to buy a ticket to get in the stadium right? There’s no free admission for being a simp in the comment section. But while you may not like my opinion it doesn’t make it any less true. What I said is exactly what’s going on.
THESE are the 3rd basemen types that the Brewers should have acquired for Corbin Burnes. Not settling for Baltimore’s 4th-best guy at the hot corner, plus an injury-prone AAA arm.
I think we can cease the trade speculation on cease.
When “but” begins the sentence, it shouldn’t have a comma after it.