A lot can change in a year for a baseball team. Around this time in 2024, FanGraphs gave the Tigers a 28.9% chance of making the playoffs and had the Cardinals as the favorites to win the National League Central.
Detroit had a middling first half and sold at the deadline, trading Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers for prospects. They surged to the playoffs without Flaherty, then re-signed him this winter and now enter 2025 as clear contenders. The Cardinals kept their hopes alive through most of 2024, acquiring Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham and Shawn Armstrong at the deadline. But when that fell short, they decided to hit the reset button and don’t seem to be planning to compete anytime soon. Even their offseason reboot plans were scuttled, with various players using their no-trade clauses to block deals the front office surely hoped to make.
Going into 2025, the Blue Jays are perhaps the club with the widest spectrum of possible outcomes. On the one hand, a lot of the roster is the same club that played at a pretty consistent 90-win pace over the 2020-23 period. They had an injury-marred season in 2024 but bolstered the roster in the winter in an attempt to return to contention in 2025. With the expanded playoffs, getting back into the mix this year is entirely possible.
The American League East seems wide open. The FanGraphs Projected Standings have all five clubs with a 35-71% chance of getting a postseason spot, with the Jays at 38.3%. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are somewhat similar, with the Jays at 48.5% and no club higher than 72.3%. For the entire American League, both projection systems have 12 clubs in the 19-71% range, with only the Angels, Athletics and White Sox lower than that.
The other side of the coin is well known at this point. The club is losing its grip on several of its key players. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most notable, as he’s an impending free agent that the club hasn’t been able to sign to a long-term deal. The same is true of Bo Bichette, the club’s other longtime core piece. Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Chad Green and Erik Swanson are also slated for the open market this fall. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk are on pace to be free agents after 2026. José Berríos can join that latter group by opting out of the final two years of his deal. All could be trade candidates this summer if things aren’t going well.
That situation extends beyond the roster. President Mark Shapiro is reportedly going into the final year of his contract. General manager Ross Atkins is reportedly only signed through 2026. Manager John Schneider is signed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. Around the baseball world, there is an expectation that a poor season will lead to significant changes. If the Jays are bad again in 2025, no one would really be shocked if Shapiro, Atkins and Schneider are all gone.
Even if the team does manage to put together a good season in 2025, there will be questions to be answered about the future. As mentioned, several players are set to qualify for free agency in this coming winter or the one after that.
Whether they can replace some of those players internally is tough to say. Industry evaluations of the system as a whole are not strong. Baseball America ranks the farm system 23rd in the league. Keith Law of The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN recently put them 24th.
That’s not necessarily shocking, as the club has been putting a priority on the big league roster lately. Bassitt and Springer had rejected qualifying offers, so the Jays had to give up a draft pick for each of those deals. The same is true of the upcoming draft, as Anthony Santander also rejected a QO.
Of the club’s five first-round picks from 2018 to 2022, they eventually traded three. They sent Jordan Groshans to the Marlins in the Anthony Bass/Zach Pop deal, Austin Martin to the Twins in the Berríos trade and Gunnar Hoglund to the Athletics in the Matt Chapman trade. The other two, Alek Manoah and Brandon Barriera, are both recovering from Tommy John surgery right now. Other notable prospects like Ricky Tiedemann and Landen Maroudis are also working back from TJS.
That has left the club with a clear lack in top-end talent. Baseball America has just one Jay on their top 100, with Tiedemann having literally the last spot. The lists from FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and Law all have two or three Jays on them but no one in the top 60.
A person looking for optimism could focus on the volume of guys who are either borderline top 100 guys or just outside of that designation. In addition to their recent top 100 list, Baseball America also released a list of every player who received at least one vote from one of their writers. They build their top 100 by having several contributors submit a top 150 ranking, then use a points system to combine those different lists.
As mentioned, the Jays ultimately only got one guy on there with Tiedemann taking the final spot, but he was one of seven different players to receive a vote. That means that at least one BA staffer considered Jake Bloss, Arjun Nimmala, Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, Orelvis Martínez or Trey Yesavage to be a borderline top 100 guy. Some of those guys appeared on the other linked top 100 lists. Only one club had more than 11 players on that vote-getter list from BA, while some clubs had as few as three.
The volume of the Jays’ system also appeared to show up at ZiPS, the projection system from Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. ZiPS had five guys on the top 100, six guys in the top 200 and 20 in the top 500. In that latter category, only three clubs were ahead of the Jays. The Rays had 24, with the Reds and White Sox at 21.
This quantity-over-quality assessment probably aligns with the observations of anyone earnestly following the club. They have an army of guys who are not really considered top prospects but seem perhaps capable of being major leaguers in the near future. This includes guys like Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Charles McAdoo, RJ Schreck, Adam Macko and Lazaro Estrada. They also have some guys who are no longer prospects and aren’t fully established but still have some future potential, such as Bowden Francis, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, Leo Jiménez and Addison Barger.
Perhaps a few nice developments in there could make the future look a little better. But even if that comes to pass, there will still be the unanswered question of the club’s star power. The club’s attempts to sign players like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and others have come up just short. As mentioned, their overtures to Guerrero haven’t worked.
The one benefit of all those misses, and the large slate of impending free agents, is that the future payroll is fairly clean. By 2028, only Santander, Berríos, Andrés Giménez and Yariel Rodríguez will be guaranteed deals. Berríos has an opt-out after 2026. Santander and Rodríguez can opt-out after 2027, though the club can void those opt-outs by triggering club options. The Giménez deal is guaranteed through 2029 with a club option for 2030.
Though Guerrero hasn’t signed a long-term deal yet, he did leave the door open to consider a future offer if the club circled back to him. It’s also possible that he could reach free agency and re-sign, the same way that star players like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso re-signed with the Yankees and Mets respectively. The Jays could also pivot to some other notable free agent next winter, such as Kyle Tucker, Munetaka Murakami, Dylan Cease or Zac Gallen.
While starting this piece, I considered using cliches like “shifting sands”, “fog of war”, “up in the air”, “multiverse” or “over the horizon” in the title. The point I was hoping to make is that there’s almost nothing that can be known about the Jays right now. It’s entirely plausible that they’re good this year, but also just as possible that they’re bad. Making the playoffs is totally within reason, but everyone could be traded and everyone could be fired. They could see a few of their many young guys step up and cement themselves as future pieces, offsetting the upcoming free agent departures. The system could look barren as they kick off a yearslong rebuild. They could sign a franchise-altering mega contract or they could not.
Many fans have already made up their minds about the Blue Jays but it seems like everything will be on the line this year with so much to be determined. Regardless of the outcomes, it should be interesting.
They should trade Guerrero Jr and Bichette for some top prospects.
Like who
Good point, Tom. I wonder if Bichette possesses negative value.
1 yr commitment to a dude with an .800+ OPS for three straight seasons in 2021-23… definitely has positive value
On an expiring contract with the likelihood that he chooses to test free agency over signing an extension (barring a massive overpay) coming off of an injury plagued season i doubt too many teams are willing to deal top flight prospects for this particular rental
Toronto wants to keep their season ticket holders and tv subscribers. That $ is so much greater than the worth of any prospects. 1 year rentals. One off a poor season. Another a 1b. Might as well make that $.
Now Houston traded Tucker and SD traded Soto and it’s business as usual. They extended their window and kept fan excitement high. But Toronto won’t spend the $ to bring in other players. They just got reported they were interested in everyone and kept their 2 stars. Fans should fall for it and they should make their $. What are they going to do next year? Yankees lost Soto. But then went out brought in a bunch of big name good players. Excitement high. There’s a way to keep things going but you gotta do the work.
I don’t think you’ve been keeping up. Toronto offered on almost every free agent. Offered 700 for Ohtani, and for Soto. Had a high payroll last year. Their fans used to cry about their ‘cheap owner’ every year but the truth is that’s not the case. The top rung of players who have lucrative options just don’t want to go there.
Whatever way you look at it, they were outbid.
YourDreamGM
Now Houston traded Tucker and SD traded Soto and it’s business as usual.
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Perhaps the top-market teams should change their focus from prospects to more pedestrian players with some control. SD only received one prospect, and flipped him immediately. And Houston only received one prospect.
But both teams got some regulars who figure to contribute immediately, and not at a level far below that which they were giving up.
JoeBrady
Take best return available but if it’s veterans to help now and you aren’t rebuilding sure. I love what SD HOU did. But you can also do CLE. Traded Naylor then signed Santana. Nothing new. Pirates trased Giles for Bay, closer for future closer like half a dozen times, Cole for Musgrove.
Trade Vlad Jr. to the Yankees. Should net something like Dominguez, Pereira, and Warren.
Don’t think the Yankees would do that
Wake up! The Blue Jays would never trade him within in the division, nor would the Yankees risk losing the prospects and Vlad in free agency.
They have one of the best owners in the game, a huge media conglomerate, own and control all media/tv rights and the stadium, they have the support/fanbase of an entire country, recently very nicely upgraded the stadium. Winning in the majors is hard. They’ve shown a willingness to spend money, albeit, attracting high end free agents to Canada is a bit of a handicap. There are a couple banners hanging from the roof. Lots to be positive about.
I wouldn’t have paid Vlad as much as he wanted either.
$ attracts players. Being interested in doesn’t cut it. You need to cover the high taxes. Then you need to pay more because of location. Then you need to pay more because you aren’t a winner. You go to NY LA you knkw they are going to spend and be world series favorites every year. Toronto is just interested in getting Toronto is interested in news. Pay these guys 3 4 or 5 million more a year and they will gladly come. Problem is taxes so it’s much more than that. Small price to pay when you are the only team in the country.
None of what you say has much connection to reality. How do you pay more to overcome location to someone guaranteed 700 million? Do you think they’re gong to spend 10 years of their life somewhere they don’t want to be for 750 million? Or 800 million? Heck I don’t think many people making 500 thousand in the US would pack up and more to Canada if they were offrered 2x that amount. We only have one life.
Canada so bad people would turn down making twice as much? I never lived there but never thought it was that bad.
YourDreamGM
You need to cover the high taxes.
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How much are we really talking about?
1-If Soto makes $51M, the road share of his tax obligation is probably identical no matter where he plays.
2-That leaves the taxes on only $25.5M, and I don’t think the difference between the TO obligation and the CA, NY, MA tax obligations to be that big.
Guys who have made it to free agency and are desirable free agents can play for hundreds of millions wherever they would like. Such as Corbin Burns, he wanted to be close to family, and I’m sure the warm weather year round doesn’t hurt either. This is the reality. Besides, you can only sign so many big ticket guys, and if they really don’t want to play for you, why bother offering them more money. They offered him the most according to reports, he turned it down. That’s not the front offices fault at all. The jays have a huge fan base, lots of opportunities to make extra income, and great major league and minor league facilities, top notch. Lots of free agents have spoke about how much they enjoy Toronto, but, not everyone will want to play here.
JoeBrady
No idea. Reporters always mention them as a factor so figure they are high. That universal health care needs paid for.
California NY has to make up for taxes as well and they do.
jaysfan77
Burnes was just doing marketing. What’s better to say I love Arizona and my family is here or I took the biggest pile of cash?
If the other teams actually offered a better contract they would leak it. Jays offered more is all that was reported. How much more? Did it give him a fantastic player opt out? It can’t be 213 215 220 225 it needs to be drastically more. Arizona super low or no income tax. Awesome weather. And his family is there. So if you pay extra to cover taxes and a few million more he would still pick Arizona. When you are getting 200m whats a few million more. But there’s a tens of millions more number that would make the family willing to live in Toronto for half the year or not see Daddy as much.
If Baltimore offered 210 and Arizona only offered 150 do you really think he loves living in Arizona that much? Wouldn’t even have to stay there the entire time he could opt and go to his beloved Arizona.
At least Toronto offered him more $ before taxes. Baltimore only offered him biggest contract in franchise history aka much less than other teams.
Speaking of opt out. If he LOVES living in Arizona so much and it wasn’t about them paying him the most $. Why would he care about getting the opt out as it is only there so he can opt out and get what he truly cares about the most $
Positive about a poor farm, poor hitting team over the luxury tax lol. Players don’t want to play for woke used car salesman types. AA got JB and EE to sign for under market value, these two can’t players more.
Both those players didn’t break through until there late 20’s. Both were designated for assignment on multiple occasions. They signed them both without a proven track record, after one breakout season. Not the same thing at all
When utilizing a projection in an article it is helpful to also tell what that system’s historical margin of error is. With most its greater than +/- 20%. Pecota provides a range which is as high as 50% for a single team, so +/- 25%. That is why few people put much weight on projections.
Best to just look at the last 3 years and weight the seasons with most recent weighted heaviest with some common sense to account for injuries affecting performance.
Uncertainty is fundamental. The standard deviation of a 162-game season is 6 games. Hence, even if the projection system was 100% accurate, the spread of nearly all outcomes is 24 wins, say from 70 to 94 for a team predicted to win 82 games. The Jays are better than most teams. However, the AL East is wide open.
It will be interesting to see where they go from here. An entire country is literally waiting to find out.
or not. You must only watch Sportsnet? there are many many Canadian baseball fans can’t stand Toronto. The Red Sox , Yankees , Mariners , Cardinals all have huge fan bases
And millions of us Blue Jays fans in the USA and other countries around the world (particularly in the commonwealth where they tend to be the default pick). Living in California I run into more other Jays fans than you might think.
millions of Jays fans living in the US? That is a ridiculous statement .
Jays should trade Shapiro & Atkins.
Yep. Atkins for sure. The weak farm system is a result of his math based system. I am sure other teams use math too. But Atkins system doesn’t work. Too many low power, low strikeout hitters who are no good at defence in the system.
The Blue Jays are rumored to be interested in their future.
Sadly, their future ultimately decided to sign with the Dodgers.
30 Parks – “Jays should trade Shapiro & Atkins.”
Could be a pretty tough trade. I think they may have negative trade value.
Throw them on Fox news. Trump will trade for them!
The Blue Jays: One and only MLB team in ‘Murica’s 51st state!
-er, weren’t you a “star” in a 1960’s comedy?
Two of ’em!
Shatkins are wokies would fit perfect on CNN
Barring a miracle where everything magically comes together and goes just right for the Jays this season the window with this group is closing. Vlad Jr. is as good as gone, Bichette probably too (though it could be argued whether or not he’s ever lived up to his prospect hype). The current management literally can not give money away, while the Santander signing was a nice bet hedge against Guerrero leaving, it might be time to retool
didn’t Bichette lead the league in hits the year before last?
He led the AL in hits two straight years and had a shot at three in a row, before the first leg injury got to him.
I believe that Vladdy will resign.Boston will be their main competitor but they already have an above average 1st baseman.They would have to listen to Ortiz.
600m over 12 years and I don’t see why they would do that.
Their country could be invaded by a lunatic, or it could not.
People are saying it’s what we should.
Being invaded can’t be much worse then tampons in men’s washrooms trudeau
It’s time to let this front office go, in 10 years on the job their accomplishments are…
Zero division titles.
Zero playoff wins, not one game.
Zero core players extended.
24th or worse ranked farm system.
Aside from the Rogers Centre being remodeled I can’t think of anything this FO has done.
Conclusion, if you’re looking for an interior decorator give this FO a call, if you want a winning ball club with a future, keep looking.
I get your point but their team won playoff games in 2016
And that was the last time they ever won a playoff game.
Fair enough, so the only playoff win this FO has achieved is with a team AA built.
The zero core players extended is probably a good thing. Since the core was all sons of major leaguers, they weren’t the kinds of players who’d be offering a discount for security or lacking confidence in their future earnings.
The playoff struggles are frankly not something a reasonable person would argue a GM/President has control over. Although John Schneider certainly has some responsibility for mismanaging some playoff games, I’d like to think he’s been learning from those mistakes and he’s still young for a manager so I don’t think it’d be smart to let him go over that specifically.
The farm system is what Atkins deserves blame for. And meddling in the baseball side of things is what Shapiro deserves blame for despite the great job he’s done on the business side.
Just because the core is harder to lock up doesn’t mean that they couldn’t or that it’s a good thing they didn’t. Part of being a GM is knowing how and when to negotiate. Only 2 of those players you’d want to lock up are sons of major leaguers. In the case of Vlad Jr it could be the difference of 100mil or more, so no it’s not just about discounts, it’s about when to negotiate too. It’s also about being able to flow with the changing market values or making your move before the market moves beyond your comfort zone, such as before other players sign new massive contracts and reset the market.
As far as making the playoffs and playoff wins, after 10 years of failure in doing so a reasonable person could easily infer that it’s a team building issue. Every year this team is short something, SP has no depth, bullpen has no power or lockdown arms, or the lineup has no punch, or continuing to employ coaches that aren’t getting the most out of the players they’ve been handed. That comes back to the FO once again as those are team building issues.
After 10 years of failure, all roads lead back to the FO.
I’m not saying this FO has done nothing good, most trades they make seem to slightly fav the Blue Jays, and let’s not forget the aforementioned Roger’s Centre interior redesign.
Enjoy the last 6 months of vlad in blujay uni
Next year queens
While I don’t think he’ll be back in a Blue Jays uni, I dount he goes to Queens.
What exactly is different or worse about the Cardinal roster that has you changing from winning the NL central in 2024 to “not planning on competing” in 2025?
Future? They’ll stink until that loser FO is gone.
Future of Blue Jay’s, as in are they moving? Maybe Portland or Charlotte or Montreal?
Yeah…I think they should just can the whole Canadian experiment and ship the team down to Arkansas where the real fans are.
Problem is…the other teams wouldn’t appreciate the decrease $ due to reduced revenue sharing. But this difference could be made up just in beer sales and tariffs on domestically produced uniforms.
Keep the game within the borders of the US, and forget about games in other countries (like Japan). Just think of the trillions of dollars that could be saved in travel, as the teams could use buses instead. The teams (and fans) could be filthy rich with all the money saved. Cleats should be manufactured in Florida by retired ball players instead of paying foreign ladies and children to sew them. Hats could be made in the DC area by people that are now unemployed. But think of the wheelbarrows of cash they would be taking home daily! They could make extra money on the side by hand sewing in slogans on the front. Gloves could be made by ex-Hooters waitresses…just because they can. All tax free! The waitresses could all be millionaires!
Just some thoughts from a dumpster fire watching Jays fan.
Well said, everything goin Murican so as to avoid tariffs. Like hockey too, Houston and Atlanta getting the jump on Quebec.
Winnipeg. It’s centrally located so you could draw attendees from both coasts.
Now, the question is “What does Ed Rogers want?”
One of the main points of the Shapiro hire was of him being brought in to oversee stadium and player development/spring training facility upgrades. Not having seen any concerns expressed in those areas, that can be considered a success.
You could have included their Cleveland results to emphasize the fact that Shapiro/Atkins are not Championship builders. He has to know the impact on ticket, merchandise, SN subscription, and ad sales a winning team will have. Given that the timeline extends to twenty years or so, I would say it’s time for Ed to end their opportunity to deliver on that.
Until the Lousy GM shapiro and his useless lackie atkins are fired , the Jays are going nowhere !!
With Vladdie likely not returning next year, if I were Atkins I would get Orelvis Martinez a trapper, and have Mattingly work with him.
@Wawa Nimoosh
He’s made 50-summin errors in his past 190 games. I know errors aren’t the best of stats but tossing in his 20/80 defensive grades and the only glove this guy should have are batting gloves.
Jays should have asked Vladdy before last years trade deadline how much $ that he wanted. They could have traded him for a haul at that point.
When Shapiro took the job he ripped Alex for dipping too deeply into their farm system to make back-to-back playoff pushes (where they made it to the ALCS both years). He noted that rebuilding the farm system as one of his priorities.
That farm system is worse now than it was then. Enough said.
Until the Shatkins is gone and the front office is in capable hands, little else matters.