This week's mailbag gets into Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Pete Alonso, whether the Mets should move on from Alonso, whether any MLB trade was as shocking as the NBA's Luka Doncic deal, those who feel this MLB offseason has been dull, how much the Red Sox would have to eat on Masataka Yoshida's contract, possible Sandy Alcantara suitors, and much more.
Jed asks:
Why is the general expectation that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will get over $400m in free agency next winter for 10+ years despite being a defensively limited, slow-footed, right-hand batting first baseman. With Pete Alonso, I've seen so much coverage about how he may not get more than a $23m AAV from the Mets for no more than three years total. Obviously Pete is 4 years and three months older than Vlad Jr., and would be playing his age 30-32 seasons on a three-year deal. But Vlad Jr. will be 27 in 2026, the first year of his presumptive 10+ year mega deal. After those first three seasons on Vlad's hypothetical 10+ year mega deal, he will also be playing his age-30 season in the fourth year of such a contract, presumably at a $40m AAV.
Aside from getting his age 27-29 seasons, why are pundits convinced that an expensive, long-term deal for Vlad Jr makes more sense than a short-term deal with a $23m AAV for Alonso (especially considering that since their 2019 debut seasons, Alonso has hit 66 more homers and posted a higher slugging percentage)? Why is everyone convinced that Vlad Jr represents a better long-term bet to succeed than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and all the other countless examples of RHB 1B who failed to produce in their 30s?
I can't speak to general expectations; only my own. I encourage you to re-read what I wrote on this on December 10th. A key point was, "So much depends on which Guerrero shows up in 2025."
I strongly prefer the wRC+ stat to home run totals and slugging percentage. We need to account for offensive contributions other than the home run, and in a more logical way than slugging percentage (a home run is not worth four times as much as a single, for example). Guerrero has two elite seasons with the bat: 2021 and 2024. In those years, he hit so well that his defense was an afterthought and he was worth 5-6 WAR. Juan Soto had six 5-WAR-ish or better seasons under his belt prior to free agency (extrapolating his rookie year and the shortened 2020 season), and it's because he's never posted worse than a 143 wRC+.
Guerrero sandwiched a 132 and 118 season between his 160+ ones, and hitting in that more human range can drop him all the way to 1-3 WAR. That's a guy you very much don't want to be paying $40MM a year. But Vlad always has the batted-ball data to back up elite offense, and with another 160+ season I do think offers reach $400MM+.
Alonso's best season was his rookie year with a 144 wRC+. His second-best was 141 in 2022. He's been at 121 over the last two years. He's a 2-3 WAR player who's shown a ceiling of 4 WAR. Guerrero has shown more variance, but his ceiling has been 6 WAR and he nearly reached it in the recently-completed season.
In comparing age, I'd look at the Opening Day difference of each player's first year under a new free agent contract. In other words, comparing age at 4-1-25 for Alonso to 4-1-26 for Guerrero. Using that approach, Guerrero is 3.27 years younger. Those being prime years, they're incredibly important when it comes to free agent contracts.
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“A home run is not worth four times as much as a single”
Really?
I’d take 4 singles over 1 HR any day – I get a run guaranteed and the bases loaded at worst 99% of the time. Over thousands of innings and games the 3 singles will produce more runs than 1 HR with a random number of baseball runners between 0-3.
I think you are making stuff up.
When you hit a home run with men on base all those guys score when many wouldn’t score if you only hit a single. A home run is a guaranteed run every time no matter what else happens. A single gets wasted all the time with the man left stranded on the bases. A home run never gets wasted.
Look at it another way – A random game where you don’t know the outcome has occurred. Your team hit 2 HRs or 8 singles – which will produce a victory more often?
Look at the box scores of really high scoring games. It’s remarkable how many don’t have lots of homers. I’ve noticed this for years.
BITA only comes here to argue.
There are lots of “wasted” home runs. A-Rod used to be the king of hitting a solo HR in a game the Yankees were winning 8-2. Now its 9-2. Big deal. I know you are about to say a single in that situation is wasted as well, but it puts the pitcher in the stretch and makes him work harder. Maybe you work the bull pen over and eliminate some arms for the next couple of games. Not trying to argue the value of four singles vs one home runs. Just pointing out that a home run can be wasted.
I think the easier way to understand this is to look at how many runs singles and homers are worth on average. This varies slightly by year, but in general a single is worth .7 runs more than an out and a HR is worth about 1.65.
These are averages that are computed every year. Sometimes a single leads to 0 runs and sometimes it leads to 1, 2, or occasionally even 3 runs. A home run can lead to 1, 2, 3, or 4 runs.
On average, 4 singles will be worth more runs than 1 home run. This has been mathematically proven.
I would disagree. Let’s look at Griffey compared to Ichiro. Griffey accounted for 3498 runs in his career. Ichiro accounted for 2200 runs in his career. Ichiro had plenty of those 4/4 games while Griffey hit home runs. You can say anything is mathematically proven if your predetermined outcome is swaying your math to come up with that outcome.
OMG….Please tell me you didn’t just do that. Those two players played in vastly different times. And their primes both were on the Mariners when each played in a completely different ballpark. Runs created by individual players is the exact way you can cherry-pick data just like you accused Ben of doing.
What difference does the ballpark or era have in valuing a single or home run. I’m valuing run production. You are making the case that a home run is even more valuable because the ballpark or era limits runs and once again the home run is guaranteed runs. At the end of the day the point is to score as many runs while limiting the least.
A home run should be worth more than 4x a single. A home run is guaranteed runs while a single is not. The point of baseball is scoring runs and preventing runs.
Slugging percentage values more hits than home runs as it is an indicator of the number of bases a hitter gets per at bat, that was part of the example given.
A better way to put the above example is that a player who goes 4/4 with 4 singles is much better than a player who goes 1/4 with a home run. By OPS (which also isn’t a great indicator, but it’s widely understood) that’s a 2.000 player vs a 1.250 player.
The best way to win in baseball is to avoid outs offensively while obtaining outs defensively.
In the micro environment of a single game won 1-0, the home run can be more valuable, but over a larger sample of games it isn’t close.
would disagree. Let’s look at Griffey compared to Ichiro. Griffey accounted for 3498 runs in his career. Ichiro accounted for 2200 runs in his career. Ichiro had plenty of those 4/4 games while Griffey hit home runs. You can say anything is mathematically proven if your predetermined outcome is swaying your math to come up with that outcome.
And rinse repeat, your cherry picking.
Apples to oranges. If you’re assuming Griffey = HR and Ichiro = single, your equation would be 1 Griffey (3498) 1 single.
My post got all messed up. For brevity, the comparison should be 1 Griffey to 4 Ichiros. In which case 3498 < 8800.
Well there isn’t a single player that only hits home runs or only singles. I’m just giving more value to a home run by more then x4 then a single. Of course it all gets put into the overall equation . I’m just valuing a .260 hitter with 40 hrs more than a .300 hitter with 20 hrs.
I think the question referring to the logic of Alonso vs. Vlad Jr. is in response to the perception that the Mets are all in on Vlad next off-season. That’s the way it’s been consistently framed through nearly all media. Sitting here today, I’d rather have Alonso short term than Vlad long term. I’m not even sure that a big 2025 season from Vlad would change my mind. History would almost guarantee that Vlad would be well overpaid for half or more years of a 10 year deal.
Mets will not sign another future DH, another unathletic slug. Nope. Media = clicks.
Chris – That a justifiable stance, especially considering Cecil Fielder was done at 34 and his son was done at 32.
Panda was done at 34 too.
I wonder why Jose Ramirez wasn’t able to attain a no-trade clause in his extremely team-friendly contract with the Guardians.
I am 99% sure he does because he took a big discount. He must really like the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
According to Tim’s answer, Ramirez does have a no trade clause.