This week's mailbag covers the Rafael Devers situation, potential Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scenarios, fits for Anthony Rizzo, whether the Braves should've traded Sean Murphy, and questions involving the Mets and Phillies.
Clarke asks:
Devers says 3B is his, Story is at SS, Campbell at 2B and Casas says he's at first and Bregman is at 2B and to heck with the kids. Meanwhile, Yoshida insists he's ready to DH and play outfield. Sounds like an accident waiting to happen. What say you?
Elden asks:
What would be the outcome of a player refusing to accept an assignment decision made by the club management? ex: Devers refusing to give up 3B or Stroman refusing to work out of the bullpen. Would it be grounds to void a contract? suspension? other remedies?
It's a mess, and it's why I didn't think Bregman was a good fit for the Red Sox. Here's a potential 2025 plan:
- Alex Bregman at 3B
- Trevor Story at SS
- Kristian Campbell at 2B
- Triston Casas at 1B
- Rafael Devers at DH
- Masataka Yoshida traded or in a part-time role
I think there's a fair chance Bregman misses 20 or so games due to injury. Third base would well-covered in that case with Devers, perhaps Campbell in a pinch, and maybe Marcelo Mayer when he's ready.
Story is 32 and hasn't topped 94 games in a season since 2021, so the Red Sox may need to cover 40+ games at shortstop. He could be backed up by Mayer, Campbell, or even Bregman.
If Campbell falters as a rookie, various options open up for Alex Cora given that the team still has a bunch of other second base possibilities beyond Bregman.
There's a pretty good chance Casas misses 20+ games due to injury. It makes tons of sense for Devers to work at first base in spring training, as he could get 40+ games as an infield corner backup even if Bregman and Casas are the starters.
A lot of different injury scenarios push Yoshida into more playing time, though Cora will probably want to sit him for Rob Refsnyder against most lefties. Wilyer Abreu needs a platoon partner as well.
What about a scenario where everyone is healthy and the younger players are hitting to their projections?
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Injuries before opening day will probably keep Devers at 3B unless he is the one who gets hurt. LOL
Devers contract is bad enough. Bogaerts’ contract is a true stinker. Boston would be insane to take that on. And I still don’t get the affinity for Suarez. The guy will be 34 a week from Saturday and has had one solid season. I’d offer Devers, Yoshida, Crawford and maybe a decent prospect for Cease and Tatis.
Stupid
Injuries make it MORE likely that Devers will move, in my opinion. They have depth at 2B more than elsewhere.
Wait – How so? Let’s say Story and Grissom are stuck in Groundhog Day with Bill Murray and have an injury-plagued season like last year ….. who is gonna cover SS & 2B? Even if Campbell becomes a starter, are you thinking Rafaela will move to middle infield? Or are you thinking Mayer will take over SS?
Where does Devers play in San Diego? Not very likely that the Padres would consider letting Machado play SS so you’re just moving the problem to another team while simultaneously bringing in the problem of where would Bogaerts play?
Love being an O’s fan where every player is:
1) In incredible shape
2) Motivated
3) Team-first attitude
4) Athletic AF
5) Cute
6) Still haven’t won anything
7) Lost more than they added this winter
8) The likelihood of their prospects breaking out to create a perfect storm for winning is lower than everybody wants to believe
@cash. Your list doesn’t work with the sentence. I’ll give you justs number three doesn’t work, but at least it was player related.
Yeah, but are they cute?
@avenger. Not knockin’ @justs yum.
I love how the author says that he thought Bregman was a poor fit for Boston due to how he doesn’t just seamlessly slide in to a single given spot, and then lays out reasonable missed time projections for various players that points to why his defensive flexibility could be extremely valuable in managing over the course of the season.
It’s remarkable how undervalued this sort of thing is. I’m an ardent believer that “avoiding the awful” can be as important for regular season success as the value above replacement good players bring, and in recent years the Red Sox have be saddled with some big chunks of “awful” at spots due to insufficient flexibility.
A team can’t go overboard with this, and surely the fact that there would be some inefficiency in adding Bregman if everyone stays healthy and has a personal quality season is part of why Boston wasn’t looking to pay full freight to land him. But he’s a very helpful add for the price he cost.
Bregman doesn’t currently have defensive flexibility, Kristian Campbell already does, and they’ve created a distraction with Devers. I think the Red Sox also don’t find the fit ideal, which is why Bregman wasn’t their first choice.
I get what you’re saying, but Devers is awful defensively and there’s no way around that fact. I’m glad he likes playing the position but at some point it also becomes part of his job to accept reality that continuing to pencil him in as the starter is a liability. On that grounds I love the fit for Bregman, because he is an actual third baseman.
Dirty – The bottom line is we don’t know the overall impact Devers moving to fulltime DH will have on the entire team.
We don’t know if he will be able to accept and adapt to the new role, his offensive production could take a dive.
We don’t know what will happen with Yoshida. Does he get released resulting in approx $55M of dead money sitting on the books thru 2027? Or does he play LF a lot which I don’t think anyone here wants.
And what if the combination of Campbell/Hamilton/Grissom at 2B doesn’t work out? All three are unproven and could end up weakening the position a lot more than if Bregman played there.
I mean, sure, but there’s risk in everything. Every single personnel decision you make could go wrong, but that’s not a reason to sit on your hands and not do anything. It’s the front office’s job to find a better infield alignment that gives the team a better chance to win. They did their part in acquiring the personnel to make it happen. We know beyond even a shred of doubt that Raffy is not a good third baseman, that’s why signing Bregman was a necessity in the first place. Now it’s the coaching staff’s job to determine who is best situated at each position and the players’ job to accept what is best for the team and play their role in winning ball games.
Devers is a poor defensive player, and those don’t tend to last at 3B beyond mid-career. He is a lot closer to Edwin Encarnacion than he is to Adrian Beltre.
The Red Sox needed a 3B this year at least as much as they needed a RHH bat. Bregman was the only player available who filled both needs.
Wait – Assuming the whole point of acquiring a RHB was to have better production against LHP, how does Bregman fill that need with his reverse splits in each of the past three years?
Again, here’s his numbers vs LHP:
2022 – .703 OPS 99 SOPS+
2023 – .696 OPS 89 SOPS+
2024 – .712 OPS 98 SOPS+
This is a good point. Bregman does not really address the left/right imbalance with his reverse splits. However, he does rake at Fenway which does make up for that. Also, I view it probably as a tacit admission that they expect Anthony to force his way into playing time at some point this season, which is going to force either Abreu or Yoshida out of the lineup if not traded away. Anthony can hit lefty pitching, so despite being a LHB himself will help correct some of that imbalance. I think if they were more worried about that balance or unconvinced Anthony was very close to ready, they would’ve prioritized trading for Arenado over signing Bregman.
I think the Red Sox also don’t find the fit ideal, which is why Bregman wasn’t their first choice.
============================
I wasn’t a fan of signing Bregman since I wanted to extend the kids. And I was with some errors at 3rd and a learning curve at 2nd.
But Bregman is absolutely a perfect fit. A great glove with middle of the order RH power.
Redsox – Versatility is a good thing when the player can actually play well at multiple positions.
It’s a bad thing when the player plays multiple positions, but not well.
The short bench that’s common these days results in too much of the latter, and it becomes costly.
You don’t expect a bench player to be good defensively, given the number of different positions they have to cover. Devers was arguably not the worst Red Sox defender at 3B last year. The backups really struggled defensively.
Wait – Exactly!
Since you mention 3B last year, look at the players who filled in there:
Valdez
Rafaela
Gonzalez
Dalbec
Sogard
Reyes
Westbrook
Short
Most of those guys had no business playing 3B.
If Cora insists on a 4-man bench, there should be one for OF, one for both corner infield, one for both middle infield, and one for catcher. A healthy Yoshida could be the emergency second backup OF’er.
Even those here who love Rafaela have said his constantly moving between CF and SS hurt his defense at both positions … and I agree. The only problem is he’s best in the OF but needed more in the infield.
OF is Refsnyder, IF should be Hamilton (Campbell needs to be starting). But they don’t really have a backup CI, so they might double up on backup MI and use the Bregman/Devers/Casas combo to cover needs at 1B/3B. Ought to work.
As we found last year, Devers/Casas simply isn’t enough to cover both positions.
Wait – Romy did a decent corner IF job last year.
But yeah I’m thinking if Campbell makes the OD roster, Romy is the one who is gone because he can’t hit RHP.
As we all know, injuries and performance will be the biggest factors in determining how everything shakes out.
The silver lining with all this uncertainty is we should be seeing familiar players taking up a lot more playing time in ST than usual. …. which is fine with me, it’s a lot better than watching players whose names we never heard, who doesn’t have a picture for the jumbotron, and doesn’t have a number on their uniform.
Romy struggled badly at 3B. He did hit, though.
Another possibly disturbing aspect of the Devers situation is what kind of pressure will it put on him if he does remain at third? With Bregman right there, it seems like Devers will feel like he has to play defense flawlessly… which we know he can’t in the best of times.
Devers has had 8 years at the mlb level, and, hasn’t gotten. His defense in gear yet. I see no reason for that to change. His a hitter who plays poor defense, and, it’s all he will ever be.
My problem is that the #9 hitter was only 8 RBIs behind. And that’s a glaring sign about the meat of the order, which Devers was a part of most of the season when he wasn’t in the two hole. I think expectations for Devers is very high, due to his salary.
GaSox – I think part of the problem is under Cora he hasn’t felt the need to work on his defense as much as he should have. You know how Cora is, not exactly one to push players into improving. Players like playing for him because he’s so easy to play for. The only player I can recall him EVER giving a kick in the pants is Dugie.
But now maybe this is all about Cora lighting a fire under Devers?
Fever- if we believe what you say is true, what about all the BS we’ve been fed for *years* about how Devers takes so much pride in his defense and is really trying to make strides and put in reps?
You’ve got two options:
1) Devers tries his best and simply cannot learn to play good D.
2) Devers is a lazy mooch who coasted along and didn’t work on his D because he wasn’t pushed hard enough? Even though he saw how it cost games, made pitchers work harder, and cost his team and teammates? Making him not just a bad teammate but also not a good team player or anyone you should want around because he has no work ethic.
Which is it? Because those are the only two options.
I choose the former
GaSox – I do think he takes pride in his defense, but I’ve read and seen enough videos to know his hitting is far more important to him and he enjoys hitting more than fielding. It’s just another similarity to Manny, I’ve compared Devers to Manny for many years.
As for the talk about him working hard at improving …. that’s as open to interpretation as all the “shown interest in” articles. They exaggerate to put a positive spin on it, and they know it can’t be proven otherwise.
I mean come on, who is gonna say “Devers doesn’t work hard enough on his defense”? His teammates won’t, his coaches won’t, his manager won’t. And as we all know he’s not in the best shape, which obviously impacts his fielding.
To answer your question, I choose Option #3 …. he wants to do well, but it’s a combination of lack of athleticism and lack of focus/dedication that’s holding him back from doing well. He’s kind of immature for his age, wouldn’t you agree? Some players do need that kick in the pants. Heck, I was right there behind the dugout when Febles grabbed him and slapped him in the face.
And you know how much I’ve supported Devers over the years, it’s not like I WANT to say his work ethic is lacking but it’s the truth and unlike others here I keep it real whether it’s good or bad.
So do you disagree that Cora is usually too easy on his players? Do you disagree that’s part of the reason why they’ve collapsed so many times in the second half?
BTW – Devers has bailed out pitchers with his offense far more often than he’s cost them.
GaSox – And one other thing. You say Devers just isn’t capable of learning to play good defense.
Then why was all 2,929 innings he played in the minors and foreign league at third base only? Why did nobody, whether it be coaches or scouts or managers on several teams, even attempt to have him try any other positions?
Sorry my friend, if he didn’t have the natural ability to play 3B he would have been moved off 3B long, long ago.
Devers has had 8 years at the mlb level,
===================
100% correct. This isn’t like promoting a hitter with a rough glove, or even promoting a GG with a rough bat, and hoping they develop. I’d be fine with that.
He’s had his chance and now we move on.
What I find truly funny about this whole thing is it is absolutely no different than when the Yankees acquired A-Rod and Derek Jeter adamantly declared he wasn’t moving off of SS for the obviously better defensive player, yet I don’t remember the days long trashing of Jeter in the media over it.
your memory is short. Jeter certainly took some criticism but mostly from the same crowd who love to criticize
King – yeah this Devers bashing is super weird, bregman is also good, but he’s not ARod level lol.
What if Bregman follows Arenado’s path and his bat falls off the face of the earth – it’s already trending that way. Then it’s 120MM for a gold glove 3B.
I fully understood the Soto pursuit, because that’s a generational player who should be entering their prime. That’s a free agent that you make a big stink to sign. I didn’t love the pursuit, but I understood why they did it.
that’s because Jeter was the proven team leader and golden boy who could do no wrong in the eyes of the media and most Yankee fans.
Hell, his dive to catch that Trot Nixon popup in Yankee stadium against the Sox in ’04 that bloodied his nose is what led the Sox to trade Nomar (whose not playing that game was conspicuous)- then the Sox’s golden boy.
Devers is no clubhouse leader nor is he the golden boy in Boston, and his attitude isn’t helping his cause at all.
his dive to catch that Trot Nixon popup in Yankee stadium against the Sox in ’04 that bloodied his nose is what led the Sox to trade Nomar
========================
I’ve always maintained that Jeter, by virtue of that great play, was the RS MVP.
Great analogy. At some point, you are with us, or you are not.
I think you can file this under expectations for what he is being paid. Just saying!
JD – Not from Yankee fans, who all respected and appreciated Jeter’s history with the team.
Yankee fans didn’t have full-on hatred for DJ like some Sox fans have for Devers. That’s the difference, not to mention Cora and Company breaking an extension-signing promise just one year after the extension took effect.
And you’ve even got some Sox “fans” bashing Casas for simply backing his friend and teammate Devers when a reporter asked Casas who should play 3B.
Yeah and Casa’s just needs to shut up. He seems so desperate to make headlines. And after turning down an extension offer, this is not helping him at all in the RedSox eyes or the rest of the league that’s hearing all this. In layman’s terms, he is shooting himself in the foot big time!
Smk – I didn’t want to bring up Nomar, but since you did … Nomar, Clemens, Boggs, so many great Sox players treated like crap by Sox “fans” while still with the team … not a good look for the Fellowship of the Miserable.
But i do believe real Sox fans will support Devers. I don’t expect to hear any boos this weekend, and I will be cheering loudly for him as always.
Fever- agreed vis a vis the fans turning on players on the team, and I admit I was one of them in terms of Nomar, but I will argue that Nomar did little that season to endear himself to the fan base- or the owners.- who probably didn’t help themselves by leaving his future in Boston in doubt after the ’03 season.
I know he had the Achilles’ injury, but he could have been playing that day- the game went 12 or 13 innings, as I recall. He should’ve been in there at some point, but just sat there- and the TV cameras caught his every move- or lack thereof.
He made his intentions clear.
Obviously, what happened in Chicago- the torn groin- the following season was horrible, as were the steroid allegations.
Looking back, I was a typical Sox fan in 2004- waiting for the sky to fall or the team to find a new and exquisite way to break my heart. the Boone homer off of Wake (RIP) in ’03 was as painful (if not more) than Bob Stanley’s wild pitch and the surreal moment of Billy Buck in ’86 or Dent’s homer off of Mike Torrez in ’78.
It’s easy to find scapegoats, right? (though my anger towards Torrez will never fully go away. He should’ve been throwing warm-up pitches after Dent fouled the ball off his foot), and Nomar was mine in ’04….until they won, and I felt bad he wasn’t there to share in it…
I will support both Devers and Bregman. I questioned the Bregman signing, but what’s done is done. Things will work out as they will.
smk – Great post, thank you!
As for Nomar, if you have Netflix they go into great detail about him and his 2004 situation. Maybe he was truly hurt during the dive game, or maybe he was just in a bad place with everything swirling around him.
He was a target by the media because he disliked the media, disliked talking to the media, and was a bit moody. When the Boston media pounces, a portion of the fanbase often follows. The media loves controversy, and there’s nothing more controversial than a Red Sox star suddenly being demonized.
I guess this Devers thing is a sign the Red Sox are becoming relevant again. Too bad Netflix chose to cover the team last year instead of this year. LOL
Fever-
In terms of Nomar, I think of the 2 options you opined, the latter is more accurate.
He played in every game after that leading up to the All Star break- had 3 hits the following day in Atlanta- and had 7 hits in the 3 game series, had 4 hits including a homer in a 3 game set against Oakland, then 7 hits in a 2 game series against Texas- and fell a triple shy of the cycle in the 2nd game. So, was he THAT hurt physically? Perhaps, but the evidence doesn’t support it, or he would’ve sat at least 1 of those games out.
My anger came because as the Sox had yet to overcome the Yankees in any way, shape, or form at that point, and we were still a few weeks away from there wonderful Varitek v A Rod fight (Nomar did play that game and had 3 hits) which ultimately changed everything. So to that point, every game vs the Yanks seemed like a “do or die” situation, so why isn’t your team’s arguably best player (Manny was evolving and Ortiz wasn’t PAPI yet, right?) playing against their most bitter rival?
In the end, he had a superb career and all is long since forgiven.
Fans will be fans, and Boston fans are as neurotic as ever. It will take a Bregman slump or injury to hear the boo birds or the “Fire Henry/Breslow/Cora” chants, just like Bruins fans are calling for Sweeney’s head on a pike.
It’s the nature of loving your team and the allure of sports that the average person thinks they can do better than the product on the field. lol
Bad – Devers hasn’t been any worse on defense since signing the extension. So you give a guy a huge reward and longterm security promise for the job he’s done, and then shortly after you yank the guy’s job away for performing the same as he’s always performed? Just saying!
The new guy has to change positions. Incumbent stays put, even though the defensive alignment makes the defense worse. Go figure. Bregman, Arod, Stanton, there’s likely many more examples.
bruce – You are correct, but versatility also comes into play.
Devers has never played any other position except 3B in his entire 11-year professional career. Other than maybe 1B, there’s really no other position for him to move to.
Bregman has played other positions, some quite well. If Devers can’t be the fulltime DH for whatever reason, it makes sense to move Bregman not Devers (or they trade Devers).
Devers has played 3 innings at both 2b and SS, which is kind of meaningless, but he has appeared at those positions.
Doesn’t matter either way. He can’t play OF. He’s not a catcher. If he can’t field 3b he’s definitely not going to SS or 2b. Only choices are DH or 1b fat boy!
truth – I know, I just felt it was unnecessary to point out the 6 innings. LOL
Team control, If a team ask a player to change positions I would think it’s in best interest for both parties, Devers is already signed and nothing to lose, Texas did this with Michael Young twice. Young took the challenge and was an all star and Gold glover, but then again Devers was promised his position. Glad I’m not the GM or Manager. Who’s better at the position. We know.
We don’t know what the discussion was with Devers during contract extensions, or the depth of promises by execs no longer in the organization.
That said, between the facts starters usually play partial games in ST, and all the split squad opportunities, I say Cora lays down a gauntlet.
Devers gets some reps at 3B and 1B. Bregman gets some reps at 3B and 2B. Whoever proves better defense all spring gets the 3B job. Whoever loses, either winds up at their alternate 1b/2b tryout or dah in the case of Devers.
It’s simple. You want the job, you *earn it*…. and if during the season your performance craters? Same rule. You’ll be moved.
Let devers earn it if he can.
It’s gonna be interesting to see how it plays out to say the least, If Bregman plays third this year they will have a better team. My belief only, plus it will give a rookie a shot at 2 nd as well, but I like your reply, the manager is gonna have to step in.
Ranger – So what you’re saying is the guy who created the fire (Cora) now has to put it out.
This is gonna be really interesting, because even though Cora has been close to Devers for a long time …. he’s the one who pushed HARD to sign his BFF.
Devers and Cora are total opposites, Cora and Bregman are exactly alike.
If Cora doesn’t have Devers’ back and nothing happens to make it an easy decision (such as Devers’ health), it could get really bad.
FPG: You have no idea what you are talking about. You don’t know these people and you are not in the clubhouse to know how things are gong. This may not be that big of a deal in the clubhouse. Devers will likely get some time at 3B this year to keep him happy.
GA: Agreed. Cora has said he will do what is best for the team and not what is best for a particular player. I think Cora will handle things. The media will likely keep trying to play up that there is a controversy to get clicks and trolls will continue to use it to troll.
This is above my pay grade plus I don’t care where Devers plays. I just find the whole situation funny and my team is the A’s where everyone is in harmony with the goals of playing winning baseball. A’s camp everyone is ready to play their role whatever that my be.
Everybody but the owners who tore down a playoff team to save a buck.
If you own a team with -0- fans willing to buy a ticket, you have to occasionally rebuild.
I agree but you don’t dismantle a playoff team already constructed that makes no sense. That will drive off fans even more.
A real general manager would have this ironed out before the trade was made. Evidently there is no communication between gm and player and he used to be a player himself. Hard to believe. You traded for a gold glover for a team with a bad defense and now you want him to play a new position. Good luck.
I agree, but add in “that we know of”.
This just in Devers has said thru his interpreter that he will make out the line up and where everyone plays. He has put his foot down says his interpreter. If does has to DH or play 1b he will not wear a Red Sox uniform. He play naked or in street clothes lol
Yes
I think you’re on the wrong burner accounts, John Fisher… Time to log off.
i love devers but he needs to focus more getting his shoulders good again and his body healthy, and less chattering about 3B
I smiled.
Is it too far fetched of an idea to have Bregman play SS and Story at 2B??? Bregman was obviously blocked at SS with the Astros having Correa in place. Why not put him at SS and have Story, whose arm strength had been in question, at 2B?! I don’t agree with Devers’ stance on 3B being his, but if he’s not be the everyday DH, why wouldn’t a lineup like this work? Yoshida should’ve been offloaded; whether it would have been in a trade for Arenado or taking back a SP on a similarly poor contract. Devers got his payday and if he’s to be the top earner on the team speaking in total contract money, he SHOULD have a team-first mentality and cede 3B to Bregman. Maybe Big Papi should come in as a mentor/Sox legend and set Devers’ mind right.
Because Campbell is better then all of them.
Mcp – If Bregman doesn’t perform as well at 2B, I’m on board with him at SS and Story at 2B because we KNOW both can play those positions.
Why should Bregman and Story play out of position to appease E-5 Devers? Devers has two choices. DH or go home. Or, of course, he could request a trade. Good luck with someone taking that contract.
let – They wouldn’t be playing out of position.
Story has played 1,157 innings at 2B and absolutely mastered the position.
Bregman has played 2,110 innings at SS and performed quite well at the position.
We’ve usually been on the same page in the past, it’s unfortunate we don’t agree here but I will always respect your opinion.
Nobody will touch it.
The supposedly “vast” defensive difference between Devers and Bregman at 3B is being wildly overstated. Per Fangraphs Bregman’s Def was 8.4 runs above average in 2024 and Devers’s was 1.7 below average. The net difference of 10.1 runs, per Fangraphs, equates to exactly one win over the course of the entire season. Not nothing, but not much. And certainly not enough to justify destroying Devers’s value by converting him to a full time DH. Overnight his contract would go from being over $20MM above water (see Baseball Trade Values) to one of MLB’s worst contracts owing the the market’s dramatically lower valuation of DH’s owing to their adding zero fielding value. This is turn would overnight turn Devers from the face of the franchise into a financial albatross for the 9 remaining years of his contract, which would be lunacy. The reality is that Devers is worth way more as a slightly below-average 3B than he ever could possibly be worth as a DH, so the Sox should shut this idiotic talk down immediately and commit to playing Bregman at second. Campbell starts the season at AAA (thereby ensuring he his under Sox control for an additional year) and gets plenty of opps as injuries and performance deficiencies occur during the season. This is really a no brainer.
Doug – Fantastic post, where have you been!
Not sure I agree about Campbell though with the service time manipulation. He needs to develop at the MLB level, AAA won’t help much. Maybe him or Anthony can get the Sox an extra pick for ROY votes.
Thanks FPG! Re Campbell my thinking is that from a pure cost-benefit perspective the odds of his winning ROY are so remote (look at what happened to the 2024 ROY favorites) that the cost of giving up that draft pick opportunity are minimal compared to the benefit of the extra year of control that will flow from that give up.
Also let’s remember that Campbell has played a grand total of 19 AAA games so to me it goes too far to say with confidence that further AAA time would not benefit him. But even if that further time would not benefit him, it surely would benefit the Sox.
Moreover, even if it made sense to start Campbell in MLB, then get him in the lineup by platooning him with Yoshida at DH and/or Wilyer in RF (Campbell can play anywhere right?). Don’t accomplish that by moving Devers to DH, which would demonstrably be nuts.
Doug – Well said!
One problem with statistics, to anyone who has watched the actual games, is that Devers commits what *should* be charged as errors, but are instead scored as *hits* due to the mlb memos and directives to official scorers to always look for an excuse not to charge an error on a given play to boost offensive statistics and theoretically interest in the game.
GASox – Very true, although last year MLB scaled back on calling errors hits.
But whatever the year, Devers never got any preferential treatment from the scorers. All fielders had errors covered up by the scorers.
Hey my first game is Sunday, can’t wait to see my friend Hazel …. good memories ;O)
Fever, let me ask if you would agree with this however…
If all ballplayers benefit equally from the scoring decisions regarding errors, statistically you’d expect it to be at some certain rate, correct?
But, a player who commits more errors, will also recieve more benefit of the doubt calls as well right?
So, a player that might make 2 errors based on their talent level would only recieve 1/5 the amount of judgment call benefits as a player whose baseline ability was for 10 errors, yes?
Because the idea is the worse skills puts them in more situations where that benefit comes into play.
GaSox – Of course you are 100% correct there, which is why I don’t pay attention to Errors and Fielding Percentage.
With all the defense discussions this offseason, I’ve been using the following metrics that are certainly not perfect but probably give the best indication of a player’s defensive skills:
DRS
DEF
UZR
RANGE
OAA
FPG, Devers had plays other players would have stopped called hits because his range is measured in inches not feet.
Hi I believe all of the modern fielding statistics, including Fangraphs’ “Def” statistic, account for the issue that you raise by weighting every fielding opportunity against the likelihood that the average MLB player at that position would have turned that opportunity into an out. So while I am not saying Def or its analogs like OAA and DRS are perfect, they do try to address the issue you rightly raise, and those modern metrics are the best we currently have. And based on all of those metrics, the difference between Devers and Bregman at 3B is about one win per season, which is real but not “vast” as the MLBTR correspondent asserted. And no way does that difference justify turning Devers from a 3B worth $30MM a season into a DH worth maybe $20MM a season. That would be insane. Also, for all we know Bregman will be worth more then one win a season defensively over Campbell at 2B, making it even more insane to move Devers off 3B in favor of Bregman, since he might well give you the exact same defensive pickup at 2B. Again if you look at the analytics this is an easy call.
Doug – Great minds think alike, that’s exactly what I said earlier!
I had posted that whomever covers 2B, and it could be a combination of Hamilton/Grissom/Campbell, could very well generate a lower WAR than Bregman at 2B.
And also, what about Yoshida? is he going to be a $18M bench player? Is he going to play LF a lot which means a lower WAR for that position?
And how do we know Devers will adapt well to fulltime DH? Not every player is suited for it.
No matter how much the better defense at 3B with Bregman would help, you could have 2-3 other positions/roles in which the move could hurt.
It’s like people here can’t see the forest for the trees.
To me one cannot say with confidence that, defensively, Bregman at 3B and Campbell at 2B is better than Devers at 3B and Bregman at 2B. But at most the difference is one win per season in favor of Bregman/Campbell. So to me the real question is not the defensive alignment, but rather whether you’d prefer to have Campbell’s bat in the lineup over Yoshida’s. Not sure myself on that one, which is why my thought is a Yoshida/Campbell platoon at DH to start, but even if Campbell needs to play full time, just make him the DH, not the 2B.
Devers is not a slightly below-average defensive third baseman; he’s one of the worst in all of baseball. OAA ranks:
2024: 16th of 17 (min 750 innings)
2023: 19th of 20
Devers’ DRS from 2023-24 is -18, by far the worst in baseball. Bregman ranks fourth.
So I’d say the swing is at least 1 WAR, which is one of the largest possible defensive swings you’re going to see, and possibly as much as 1.5 WAR.
I think you are saying the Red Sox should sacrifice 1+ WAR this year because…why? 1 WAR is massive for a team projected to win 85 with a 56% shot at the playoffs.
I think it’s incorrect to focus on how Devers’ individual WAR would be affected. All that matters is team WAR. If you’re saying Devers at DH rather than being one of the game’s worst defensive third basemen is extremely inefficient, then I suppose the best move would be to trade him (or just not sign Bregman).
The Red Sox want Devers to move because they feel their team WAR is higher with Bregman at 3B. I agree with that. That can be the case even if some inefficiency is introduced for Devers.
Devers, IMO, actually represents a double upgrade in team WAR.
As a DH, Devers 2024 output would’ve amounted to greater WAR than he recieved as a 3B, and, also would have been a greater total than Yoshida generated at DH. However you slice it, Devers himself gains WAR by the move to DH by eliminating the penalty for his defensive work – despite the weighting being different for DH vs 3B.
Simultaneously, Bregman at 3B would also be worth more WAR than Devers, as although you do lose some offensive production, you see a massive swing in defensive output.
With that one move you’re actually getting a double upgrade in WAR as two positions improve.
While there becomes a question of what exactly to do with Yoshida AR that point, he has yet to return to health and its mainly a financial concern. He isn’t a necessary part for this team, could serve as emergency depth or dh on rest days for Devers, etc. But at every position Yoshida could occupy, there is already a superior option on the roster.
Hi GASF with the utmost respect I have to disagree. WAR is calculated in significant part by factoring in a positional adjustment that takes into account that the same offensive production is worth more (or less) towards winning (and in the market) depending on what position generates that production. So a 3B with the same offensive production as a DH will always have a higher WAR than the DH, regardless of how good or bad he is defensively. You can see this in the Fangraphs 2025 projections for Devers. His projected 3B PAs project to 4.5 WAR extrapolated over 679 PAs whereas his projected DH PAs project to only 3.2 WAR over 679 PAs. The 1.3 difference in projected WAR illustrates that even below-average defense at 3B still has substantial value compared to the zero defensive contribution made by a full time DH. Which of course is why in the market clubs pay way more for a 3B (even one that is below average defensively) than they pay for a DH with the same offensive production.
“Devers’ DRS from 2023-24 is -18, by far the worst in baseball.”
Tim – With all due respect, don’t you think cumulative defensive stats should be looked at on a per-inning basis?
Looking at the 32 players who played at least 800 innings at 3B during 2023-2024 combined:
Devers has a negative DRS for every 135 innings.
Senzel has a negative DRS for every 62 innings
Burger has a negative DRS for every 111 innings
JD Davis has a negative DRS for every 92 innings
Candelario has a negative DRS for every 132 innings
Vientos has a negative DRS for every 103 innings
Yes Devers is bad at his position, but equally bad players aren’t better than him just because they’ve played fewer innings and therefore have a smaller cumulative negative DRS.
That’s like saying Skubal pitched worse than Reese Olson last year because Skubal gave up more earned runs.
Hi Tim thanks so much for weighing in on this I really appreciate it. It seems like we agree on the fundamental point — viewed in isolation Bregman would be worth one more win (my conclusion) or one more WAR (your conclusion) than Devers would be, defensively, at 3B for the Red Sox. You characterize that pick up as massive and I characterize it as marginal; both characaterizations are subjective and neither is proveably right or wrong, but I do feel there is a lot to support characterizing as “marginal” a pickup that amounts to barely more than 1% of a team’s projected win total, especially given that all these projection methodologies have standard deviations of many multiples of 1%.
But I do think your post raises an issue that we both have largely overlooked and that is the really important question: would the Red Sox projected 2025 WAR as a team be higher with (1) Devers at 3B, Bregman at 2B, and Yoshida at DH or (2) Devers at DH, Bregman at 3B, and Campbell at 2B? Fangraphs does not provide an easy way to do either calculation, as it currently is projecting Devers for a lot of PAs at 1B. But it does give us some help. Regarding Devers, consistent with our joint view that he would take a WAR hit by moving to DH, Fangraphs projects that over 679 PAs he’d generate 4.5 WAR as a 3B but only 3.2 WAR as a DH, for a loss of 1.3 WAR between calculation (1) and calculation (2).
So the question then becomes can that 1.3 WAR loss be overcome by having Bregman at 3B and Campbell at 2B instead of Bregman at 2B and Yoshida at DH. Regarding Bregman, Fangraphs projects him for a basically identical WAR-per-PA at each position, so no countervailing pickup there. Regarding Campbell and Yoshida, however, Fangraphs projects Campbell for 1.2 WAR over 252 PAs and Yoshida for 1.0 WAR over 399 PAs, and extrapolating both numbers out over 679 PAs projects Campbell for 3.2 WAR and Yoshida for 1.7 for a pickup of 1.5, slightly more than enough to offset the 1.3 WAR loss of moving Devers to DH.
So all of this suggests an expected WAR gain for the Red Sox of 0.2 from moving Devers to DH, assuming Campbell delivers a 3.2 WAR season at 2B, which would be pretty spectacular. To me a projected overall WAR gain of 0.2 that is predicated on a rookie with 19 games at AAA delivering a 3.2 WAR season is the epitome of “marginal” and does not come close to justifying the cost inherent in turning Devers from a 4.5 WAR player into a 3.2 WAR player by moving him to DH.
Would love to hear any further thoughts you have on this Tim.
Doug, it would be 4 win or more swing because Devers play would be worth more wins at DH than at 3B. His defense is so atrocious that it lowered his WAR by a half win last year.
Hi B as per my earlier post that isn’t how WAR works. Whatever Devers’s defense did to what his WAR otherwise would have been had his defense been “average”, WAR still values his defense way more than the zero defensive value of a DH. You can see that by looking at Fangraphs projected 2025 WAR for Devers, which extrapolated over 679 PAs projects him for 4.5 WAR as a 3B and 3.2 WAR as a DH, with the same offensive production in each position. WAR has a positional adjustment built in that recognizes that an average 3B contributes more to winning than a DH assuming identical offensive contributions.
Its exactly how it works. Do the math.
I disagree with this premise because unless they have designs to trade him, the only really relevant measure of value to a long term contract that’s already been signed is whether the production lines up with the financial outlay. We know Raffy swings a helluva stick. By the defensive numbers you cited, that means his poor fielding is destroying about $10 million worth of value by sticking him out there every day. And who knows how much wear and tear (and the decline in production that comes with it) would be spared on top of that if they took his glove away? I see no reason to believe freeing him up to focus solely on the thing he does best would do anything but make him more valuable to the team, not less.
The most iconic player this franchise has had since Yaz was a DH. He absolutely does not need to be in the field every day to be the face of the franchise.
No the numbers I cited show that his fielding — below average as it is — add 1.2 WAR (about $10 million) to what Devers’s WAR would be if he did no fielding at all as a DH. You guys are all overlooking the positional adjustment that gives an average defensive 3B more WAR than a DH even with identical offensive numbers. A below average defensive 3B like Devers will have his WAR reduced, but that reduction won’t treat his defensive contribution as worthless the way a DH’s defensive contribution is treated. This is why Ortiz, great as he was offensively, never got paid what positional players with comparable offensive contributions got paid.
Also DW I respectfully suggest that you are underweighting the disaster created by an underwater long term contract. That situation puts a club in a horrific position where it either has to absorb the loss year in, year out, or do some stupid trade (like the Betts trade) to offload the underwater contract (like the Price contract). Locking yourself into paying your DH $30MM a year for nine years would be about the stupidest thing you could do. If that happens with Devers, we’ll see where Baseball Trade Values comes out, but I predict the Devers contract would instantly become one of the ten worst in MLB making Devers an untradeable albatross for the Sox.
Thanks for your replies. I’m going to address both in one comment.
1. There is clearly a difference between how we’re defining value, methinks. As has been pointed out, Devers is objectively one of the worst defensive infielders in all of baseball by pretty much any measure. DRS had him as the worst third baseman by a wide margin, UZR/150 only had him as the third worst but he, Paredes, and Rojas were all at -5 or worse while the 4th-worst, Austin Riley, was only a -0.5 and nobody else was negative. Statcast also had Devers as the worst 3B in terms of range and fielding run value. So sure, Devers’ personal value as calculated by WAR gets an adjustment to give him some credit for playing a tough position, but what value do the Boston Red Sox as a baseball team get from that? Zilch. Statistical adjustments are nice and all but they don’t help win baseball games. His individual WAR calculation is irrelevant. He has already gotten paid and his contract is guaranteed. He never has to worry about what positional payscale he’s on ever again, that’s set in stone and over with. For better or worse he is with the Red Sox for life, which means the only lens that matters anymore is maximizing his contribution to winning baseball games. There is not a single defensive metric in existence that one could point to that suggests Devers playing third base advances the cause of the Red Sox winning baseball games. So yes, from the team’s perspective, that value (call it roughly $10 million) is being destroyed by Devers’ glove because it is blocking a capable defender like Bregman from playing there.
2. I get what you are saying on the financial value vs. the economic value of the contract. But again, this only matters if they have plans to trade him. The point, ostensibly, was to make him a lifer. Who cares what the trade value is for a guy you have no intent or desire to trade? And this also ties in to my first point. It doesn’t matter if it’s smart to lock in a DH on a 10 year deal or not, or if the salary is fair, etc. They already did, so that part of the conversation revolving around whether they should have done it is over because the fact is they already did it. The only decision left is what can they do to maximize the output they’re paying for. Clearly, he is not ever going to provide any positive value in the field. If you move him to DH and tell him to only focus on being the best hitter he can be, we’re talking about a guy who can hit .270 or better with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI every year. If he does that for 10 more years, we’re talking about a guy who finishes with around 500 home runs and a .280 career average when it’s all said and done, which would put him squarely in the hall of fame discussion along with certain odds of his number being hung up next to Ted Williams’ and Jim Rice’s for the rest of time. Any fan who says they wouldn’t want that, or would be upset to pay such a player $300 million over 11 years for that career, is either a liar or cares way too much about statistics over the actual baseball being played. But if he insists on trying to play the field that entire time, the wear and tear that’s going to inflict on his body pretty much guarantees that outcome won’t be within reach, so that’s how you really ensure the money spent on him ends up wasted.
Dirty – I enjoyed your post, but I disagree with at least one aspect of it.
The Red Sox never intended for Devers to be a lifer. His extension runs only thru Age 36 and they didn’t even bother to tack on any team options. They also didn’t allow any No Trade Clause which is highly unusual given the contract and player involved here.
Now I agree Devers converting to fulltime DH now wouldn’t impact his earning power at Age 37 because he will DEFINITELY be a DH from Age 37-EOC.
But preserving his trade value absolutely is important, especially if he becomes angry and hurt by the way they treat him going forward. I know some people are like “who cares how Devers feels”. Well, anybody who has worked in management anywhere knows if an employee isn’t happy their performance will suffer and they could create a ripple effect of negativity in the clubhouse. In other words, it’s 2004 Nomar or 2008 Manny all over again.
And we know how the Red Sox handled 2004 Nomar and 2008 Manny.
That’s a good counterpoint. I guess the point on the deal making him a lifer is me assuming he’ll be done when his contract runs out. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t. Also true that they could always do something to piss him off that results in having to trade him. But you don’t sign him to a 10 year deal thinking you’re going to do stuff like that. You never know how certain guys will react to certain things, surely, but if they knew they didn’t want him around they would’ve traded him just like they did with Betts and Benintendi.
Dirty – Yeah it’s impossible to predict whether he can DH into his 40’s like Ortiz, and Nelson Cruz, or whether health issues will end his career sooner. Good offensive players do tend to last longer as DH’s. than position players who are good defensively but not that great with the bat.
Sure I’ve been saying for a long time they could have traded Devers instead of Betts, but Devers actually had a pretty good defensive 2019 season … shockingly good actually.
I think they simply deceived and lied to him during negotiations because they needed him, not just his offense but they didn’t have anyone in the pipeline to take over 3B.
Still giving a massive infielder contract to a guy that has been quite bad defensively throughout much of his career and then suddenly deciding they can’t live with him as a fielder, that’s a horrendous look for the organization.
Hi DW thanks for your above two comments, and I apologize for my inability to communicate clearly my thoughts on those two points. I will give it one more shot.
Regarding what to do with Devers in 2025, I believe the numbers show (as detailed in my response to Tim’s post) that there is no good argument for moving Devers to DH for 2025. As I explained in that response, that is because from a total projected WAR perspective moving Devers to DH will reduce Devers’s projected 2025 WAR by an amount that would at best barely be offset by the projected total WAR pickup of having Campbell at 2B rather than Yoshida at DH. Nobody has posted any disagreement with that analysis, which is not surprising because it comes straight from Fangraphs’ projected 2025 WAR numbers.
So if the Devers/Bregman/Yoshida alignment and the Bregman/Campbell/Devers alignment are a wash from a 2025 projected WAR perspective, it seems obvious that the right move is to keep Devers at 3B so as to not lock yourself into paying $30MM a year for your DH for the next nine years, and send Campbell to AAA and lock in an additional year of team control over him. FPG has pointed out how disastrous hugely under water contracts are for a club, not just because they wipe out the trade value of the player in question but also because they constrain the club’s ability to spend on the rest of the roster. Any time you are wildly overpaying one guy, the amount of the overpayment gets taken away from $ you could productively spend on other players, since no club has infinite spending capability. If the Sox are paying $30MM for a $20MM DH, and another club is paying $20MM for a $20MM DH, that discrepancy gives the other club a $10MM purchasing advantage over the Sox for the rest of the roster. That is a very bad place to be, which is why no club is ok with having a hugely under water contract on its book. That is what the Sox immediately would have on their hands, however, were they to move Devers to DH. So they absolutely should not do that unless there is a compelling 2025 advantage to doing so — which the numbers show there is not.
You are using UZR, which is based on an arbitrary zone on the field, not actual performance and because of that is no better than using errors as a measure of defensive performance.
I will go with that anyway since you used it. 4 runs is 1 win. That is a 2.5 win difference just on defense.
Moving Devers to DH also increases our wins because Devers is a better hitter than Yoshida. Last year if he had been strictly a DH, Devers would have had a WAR a half point higher than playing at 3B and would have been worth 3 wins more than Yoshida.
A 3 win improvement from Devers at DH and a 2.5 win improvement from Bregman playing 3B and the Red Sox are a 90.5 win team instead of the 85.5 win team they are with Devers at 3B and Yoshida at DH.
Hi B — with utmost respect I am using Fangraphs Def not UZR. And per Fangraphs Def the difference between Devers and Bregman defensively in 2024 was 10.1 runs, which Fangraphs equates to one win. Tim Dierkes’s post responding to mine agreed the defensive difference between the two was about 1 WAR.
The real question, as I said in my reply to Tim’s post, is projected TOTAL WAR for each of the two proposed lineup alignments. My reply showed that there would be little or no pickup in projected total WAR by going with Bregman at 3B and Campbell at 2B and Devers at DH, instead of Devers at 3B and Bregman at 2B and Yoshida at DH. That being the case, the sensible move is to stick with Devers at 3B so as to avoid destroying the value of Devers’s contract by converting him into a DH and to send Campbell to AAA to get the added year of team control.
The reality is that the numbers simply do not support the idea that the 2025 team would be stronger with Devers at 3B. I know this conclusion does not square with the popular narrative, but it is what the numbers show.
4 runs = 1 win.
Doug- the voice of reason! well put!
Fat boy is a terrible 3B!
Well I feel like maybe I am spitting into the wind here but the numbers just do not bear that out. For starters, 3B is the third or fourth most important defensive position in MLB, behind SS, CF, and C, and a tossup with 2B after that. As a result, nobody gets to start at 3B in MLB unless he is, objectively, a great fielder. That much is definite. So if you are a merely average 3B defensively, you are an amazing fielder, objectively speaking, even if you are only average, relatively speaking. That is why 3Bs make so much more money than 1Bs and corner outfielders (and light years more than DHs) who generate the same offensive numbers. Case in point: what kind of deal would Santander gotten this offseason with those numbers had he been a 3B?
Which brings us to Devers. He is, defensively, a slightly below average starting MLB 3B (1.7 runs below average, PER YEAR, according to Fangraphs). Would he be more valuable if he had Bregman-like defense? Yes, just like Bregman would be way more valuable if he had Devers-like offense. But Devers’s slightly below average 3B defense still has huge value, because very few human beings can deliver both MLB-level offense and slightly below average MLB 3B defense. For the Red Sox to throw away that value by turning Devers into a full time DH would be absolute lunacy. Overnight he would go from being fully worth his current $30MM a year to being worth more like $20MM a year. His remaining nine-years would go from being $20MM+ above water to nearly $100MM below water, making his contract one of MLB’s worst contracts — worse than Xander’s.
The clear answer here is to leave Devers at 3B and continue to get maximum value out of him. Alternatively trade him to a club that sees him as a viable 3B (they all would). Under no circumstances to you destroy the value of your most precious asset by turning him into a DH.
Devers has a -62 DRS over parts of 8 seasons. He has averaged a -9 DRS, -6 OAA, and a -1.75 WAR on defense. Over his career he is the worst 3B with a qualifying number of innings played in MLB. Over the last 3 years he is the worst in 2 of the 3 metrics. Last year he was the worst in all 3.
Tim, this one article makes my subscription worth the price. I know you have a run going on but I would love to see more of your take on baseball.
“Tylor Megill is probably better than any of these guys, possibly including a healthy Montas.”
The word “probably” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this sentence, ha. I really hope you’re right, as he pitched pretty well down the stretch after returning to the Mets at the end of August.
Not sure how your math works Doug, but Devers was paid for his bat, not his glove. He was the was the worst defensive 3rd baseman in baseball last year and Bregman was top 5. Devers as DH makes Boston better so it doesn’t devalue him. If Campbell is the player he’s projected to be,
1b Casas
2b Campbell
3b Bregman
SS Story
BY FAR Boston’s best infield
I love Casas and believe he will be Boston’s best hitter this year, and I while he probably should’ve just expressed belief that Cora would put everyone in the position that would give the Red Sox the best chance to win, I don’t think he should get bashed supporting the guy he’s actually played with. I’m extremely optimistic about this year’s team, and truly hope Devers doesn’t blow this situation up
“Devers was paid for his bat”—actually, Devers was paid to atone for the perceived sins of the FO and ownership in their dealings with Bogaerts and Betts. He was the last fetish from the 2018 WS club. There were commenters panicking on this very website, writing nonsense like “pay the man what he wants.” Why? Devers always had obvious negatives to accompany his prodigious hitting. The FO so disliked being put in the position of having to acquiesce to Devers without having a replacement at the ready that it cost Bloom his job.
Horace – The whole reason why many here were adamant about extending Devers boiled down to just one thing – age.
Remember the big debate here was who they should keep, Xander or Devers.
People overwhelmingly said keep Devers because he was only 26 whereas Xander was 30. They believed a Devers longterm contract would age much better than a Xander longterm contract.
But I find it absolutely fascinating how the Red Sox gave a 10-year $292M contract for Devers to play 3B longterm, and then “change their mind” only a year into the contract. It really shows how crappy the team has been run since Dombrowski left.
And there is zero chance that this change in plans is being driven by only Breslow.
Cora, Henry, Kennedy etc were all involved in the extension decision and are all still here.
For the life of me I can’t understand why a smart baseball guy like Dave Dombrowski gave Castellanos $100mm.
I’m not saying it is the case here, but ownership of clubs sometimes intervene, and it is the GM’s job to wear it like it was their decision. Whenever some puzzling move happens, it is something I always wonder about.
Devers and Casas to Bluejays for Vladdy
Win win for both sides
For a rental? Insane.
Bregman is a substantially better defender than Devers and it isn’t close. Devers hasn’t put up a plus defensive season since 2019 and is regularly among the league leaders in errors at that position. If I were the Red Sox, I would push Devers off of 3B.
Newsweek “predicts” that Devers will be traded to the Mets for Starling Marte, Brandon Sproat, and Drew Gilbert. They also call it an overpay. I’m thinking that article/idea was written by a Mets fan…
I just noticed those Newsweek baseball articles and they look like rehashed Fansided takes, with even extra gossip, drama, and fantastically absurd speculating out of their arses.