Hello friends.
The Gauts remain buried in Midwest snow and single-digit temps, but the good news is I've become super proficient in virtual learning/hiding from my kids to sneak away to write fantasy nerd stuff. They always find me, though...Always.
Regardless, let me warm up my fantasy soul with some regression-fueled hate. Wait! Hold on; just wait. I know "regression" can be a dirty word for some, as it's too often used as a crutch to explain both the good and the bad. Its disciples can go too heavy with their reliance while the detractors get set against all things analytical and too often throw out all the good with the bad.
Like most things, an extreme path is rarely best. Regression can be good and regression can be bad; it's all relative, baby. Just like we shouldn't assume that a 3.00 xFIP will translate to a 3.00 ERA in the future, we also shouldn't assume a 4.00 xFIP will equal a 4.00 ERA.
No individual number tells the whole story in baseball, but they can serve as markers, good or bad, pointing out areas that may warrant further examination. And while one bad flag doesn't necessarily mean disaster, worry should pile up as the number of red flags mounts.
Let's look at three starters who were excellent last season but have more red flags than a Turkish semaphore team. That's right -- a flag-signaling joke. Deal with it.
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I heard the semaphore joke before or else it would have had more impact.
Will Kyle Tucker have a better year now that he’s in the friendly confines? How does Pete Alonso’s value change now that Soto is in the lineup? Will vlad Guerrero Jr have another big year despite a bad blue jays team?
Regression simply means a return to a previous state. A player performing below his demonstrated ability and then returning to that higher level of play will have regressed. The problem with the term regression isn’t that performance can be measured in many different ways; it’s that the term is nearly always used to mean decline, when this is not its real definition.
Your comment doesn’t but does the definition include mean?
In statistics, yes, the mean is the previous state. On a scatter plot, it’s the line or curve that best fits the mean of the data values. From what I was able to read of this article, it takes an already much-abused term and abuses it somewhat more.
I would also consider that are considering and using multiple data-points. FIP is a much more complex formulas than ERA and shouldn’t be compared.
Mean people sux
Regression (and health) are why the Braves are expected to be better in 2025 than they were in 2024.
I can’t believe I just got Rick Rolled