Where Will Alex Bregman End Up?

December saw four of the top six free agents on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list come off the board. Left-hander Blake Snell (#4) went to the Dodgers on the final day of November and was followed by shortstop Willy Adames (#5) and Juan Soto (#1), both of whom signed just before the Winter Meetings began. Max Fried (#6) then signed during the Winter Meetings, and Corbin Burnes (#2) snuck in a deal with the Diamondbacks just before 2024 came to a close. That leaves just one free agent in the top six on the board as we turn towards 2025: infielder Alex Bregman, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #3 free agent at the outset of the winter back in November.

Over his nine years in the majors with the Astros, Bregman has made his mark as a two-time World Series champion, a two-time All-Star, and a winner of both the Gold Glove (2024) and Silver Slugger (2019) awards at third base. While Bregman hasn’t managed to recapture the 8-win form he flashed at his peak in the years since then, he’s remained a well above-average regular in recent years: from 2022-24, Bregman slashed a solid .260/.349/.449 (127 wRC+) with 14.0 fWAR and 13.6 bWAR. An average of four-plus wins a year should make any player a fairly sought-after commodity in free agency, and Bregman is no exception. The Red Sox and Tigers have been frequently connected to Bregman this winter, while other suitors of note include the Blue Jays, Mets, and Phillies. It’s a market that seems fairly robust, with multiple big market clubs interested.

With that being said, however, Bregman’s leverage in free agency may not be as strong as it was even a few weeks ago. The most obvious suitor for the veteran’s services for much of the winter was naturally the incumbent Astros, but a reunion between the sides appears to be off the table at this point as they’ve since signed Christian Walker and traded for Isaac Paredes to cover the infield corners. Meanwhile, the Yankees are seemingly distancing themselves from the top of the third base market, as reporting last week threw cold water on the possibility of the club landing either Bregman in free agency or Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado via trade.

Even some of the suitors who haven’t been explicitly ruled out for Bregman may have seen their interest wane somewhat in recent weeks. One such team could be the Tigers, who were reportedly becoming more serious about their pursuit of Bregman as recently as last week… but signed second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year deal shortly thereafter. While the addition of Torres certainly doesn’t outright preclude the Tigers from signing Bregman as well given their wide-open payroll outlook and the club’s relatively unsettled third base situation, the addition of another veteran right-handed bat certainly seems likely to ease the pressure Tigers brass might have otherwise felt to add Bregman.

Another potential wild card who may or may not still be in the mix for Bregman could be the Phillies, who reportedly has interest in him earlier this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently suggested the club is likely to be done with major additions, but those comments were followed shortly thereafter by Philadelphia swinging a trade to land left-hander Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. The Phillies would likely need to move on from third baseman Alec Bohm before they could seriously consider adding Bregman to their lineup, though it’s worth noting that Bohm has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this winter.

Still, some of Bregman’s suitors remain clear fits for his services. The Red Sox have been among the teams most frequently discussed in the rumor mill this winter after taking a relative backseat in recent years. While rumored pursuits of big-time free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes have not yielded fruit to this point, they’ve found other ways to be aggressive and revamped their rotation to include Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. With the starting five seemingly addressed, the club’s top priority going forward this winter figures to be adding a righty bat to the lineup who can both improve the offense while also offering some balance against the club’s many lefty hitters. Bregman would fit that role perfectly,  so it’s no surprise that the Red Sox have been frequently connected to him this winter.

The Mets and Blue Jays, meanwhile, haven’t seen their situations change much in recent weeks. New York seems likely to prioritize a reunion with first baseman Pete Alonso over adding Bregman, who would slot in at third base and kick youngster Mark Vientos over to first while likely eliminating the possibility of a reunion between Alonso and the Mets. Still, it’s hard to find a better fit for the Mets than Bregman when looking for contingencies in the event that they’re unable to bridge the current gap in negotiations with their longtime slugger. In Toronto, the addition of Andres Gimenez to the club’s infield would mean that signing Bregman likely pushes Ernie Clement to the bench (at least barring a trade of Bo Bichette), but the third baseman would be exactly the sort of middle-of-the-order hitter the Jays have long hoped to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in their lineup.

As is often the case with high-end free agents who linger on the open market, Bregman’s price tag may be giving some teams pause about more aggressively pursuing him. The infielder has seemingly been on the hunt for a $200MM deal in free agency this winter, and MLBTR’s own prediction prior to the start of the offseason was that he’d land a seven-year $182MM deal. It’s a price that seemingly made both the Astros and Yankees squeamish in their pursuits of Bregman, and the Tigers have also seemed unwilling to go to that level based on previous reports regarding their interest.

If interested clubs are hoping to land Bregman on a deal closer to the six years and $156MM Houston reportedly offered their longtime third baseman or a short-term, high-AAV deal littered with opt-outs similar to the one Carlos Correa signed when he departed Houston a few winters ago, they’ll likely have to wait out his market until closer to the beginning of Spring Training. And the possibility of a “mystery team” swooping in to land Bregman (as happened with Corbin Burnes just last week) cannot be ruled out, either.

How will Bregman’s free agency play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or a different club? And will he reach the $200MM deal he appears to be seeking, or wind up regretting turning down Houston’s reported $156MM offer?