The Padres have yet to make a significant move this offseason. San Diego hasn't made a single major league free agent or trade acquisition. It's clear they're hamstrung financially. The complaint filed by Peter Seidler's widow against the late owner's brothers only adds to the overall organizational uncertainty.
If San Diego is going to make any upgrades of note, they'll need to first offload some money. It seems the Padres intend to get below the $241MM luxury tax threshold. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $244MM. There are a few ways they could try to accomplish that. The ideal scenario would be to offload some of the money owed to Xander Bogaerts or Jake Cronenworth, but trading an underwater deal isn't easy. San Diego could move Luis Arraez but seems to want more value in return than other teams are willing to offer.
As a result, Dylan Cease has been at the periphery of offseason trade rumors. Reporting at the Winter Meetings suggested that the right-hander was available. There hasn't been any indication that they've moved close to a deal in the past month. It seems they're mostly status quo. ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Padres have been willing to hear other teams out on Cease, though he doesn't suggest that San Diego is actively shopping him.
Unlike Bogaerts, Arraez and Cronenworth, Cease holds immense trade value. The Padres could demand a significant package while offloading his entire salary. They'd need to weigh that against subtracting arguably their best starter from a rotation that comprises Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and a host of question marks.
If the Padres decide they're motivated to move Cease within the next two months, what kind of return should they expect? A few trades over the past two offseasons provide some indications about how the market could value him.
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…to fall further behind the Dodgers?
I hope we don’t find out! A WC is realistic with him assuming rounding the roster out with at least average guys.
If traded, he better bring back immediate quality hole filers or why do it?
I’ll sum it up as…
A lot.
Equally random, what can the Astros expect for Framber?
A very, very decent haul… or they won’t do it. Similar sitch!
*submit best offers here*
Padres would do well to keep Dylan cease and compete in 2025. Arraez is more expendable even if they get very little in return. If they trade Arraez, they could probably pick up one of Anthony Rizzo, Ty France or Donnie Barrels at one year/$2 million.
A player with a .370 OBP over the last 3 seasons is never expendable..
There is literally no reason the Padres would want any of those players.
In 2024, Cease had a 4.2 WAR, so my point is that he is much more valuable than Arraez who had a 1.0 WAR, which is what Donovan Solano (aka Donnie Barrels) had in 2024, a 1.0 WAR. Rizzo had a down year being injured. I do not know that the Padres actually want to get below the luxury tax threshold, but my point is if they do, they should keep Cease rather than Arraez. In fact, Solano had an OPS+ of 112 to Arraez of 106, and Solano an OPS of 0.760 to Arraez 0.739. Even 2024 OBP was 0.343 forSolano and 0.346 for Arraez and Solano had double the home runs in half the at-bats.
Cronenworth and Bogaerts are not movable without eating too much money better to take advantage of having them.
Arraez’s WAR was a function of what positions he played with the Padres. Look at his WAR the previous 2 seasons.
Since the theme of the article is the subject of arbitrary trade rumors with no basis in reality, what can the Mets expect for Lindor?
Web
But Arraez’ value will stay lower as he would be expected to be deployed as a 1B or DH if retained in 2025.
Not saying Padres will want to stay under luxury tax, just saying if they do, Dylan Cease is much more valuable than having Arraez as a 1B or DH.
Brew
RE: Imaginary trade rumors
Lindor is 31 years old and getting $34 million per year for the next seven years. He has 18.5 WAR over the past three years.
Maybe Logan Gilbert? He has only 9.0 WAR over the past three years but makes only ten percent as much in salary.
80% of the quality Milw got for Burnes rental?
Pads fans know better if that’s worth it relative to a comp pick.
Seems like they should go for WCard with him or trade him at deadline if the club is struggling.
Gotta think they can dump 10mil of Arraez salary-just don’t hold out for a prospect as far as shedding some payroll.
No point in trading for Arraez at all (or Cease for that matter) if they’re just going to trade them not even 365 days later.
Relating to the article’s whimsical theme, what can the Phillies expect for Zack Wheeler?
How about Samuel Zavala, Jairo Iriarte, Drew Thorpe and Steven Wilson!?
Career ERA much closer to 4.00 than 3.00, a career WHIP 1.25…
Sure, he strikes out a lot of batters, but that is about all that you can say is in the SP Two range.
Cease has also been putrid with nearly a 13.00 playoff ERA.
A good mid-rotation starter, but he certainly should not command that much with only one year left on his contract at a bit below market value.
Dylan Cease over past 3 seasons
SO – #1 total and K/9
WAR – #5
ERA – #10
FIP – #7
IP – #10
He is the definition of an Ace.
Your jealousy is showing. But you do you Boo.
Do you remember how Cease pitched in the postseason?? From what I recall, it wasn’t that great. How one pitches in the postseason matters, and is what separates the boys from the men.
S.S.S.T.
Do you remember how Kershaw did in his 2 starts in 2009? How about 2014? How about 2018 WS and 2019 playoffs?
Do you remember how Tarik Skubal did in his 2 starts on 6/14 and 6/19 this season?
How about Chris Sale in his 1st two starts of June? Or Wheeler on June 6th and July 29th?
How a starting pitcher performs in one or two starts in the playoffs has no bearing on a player’s worth over a season. It is too small of a sample size.
But what I want to know is, what can the Red Sox expect for Devers?
Dylan cease to the orioles would give back basallo (solution at first base) and bradfield and mountcastle
Or Jordan westburg???
Bradfield is a maybe. But forget the rest you have here. They would not want to take on Mountcastles salary anyway. Defeats the purpose.
Basallo won’t be traded. Period. Bradfield will replace Mullins. Mountcastle, McDermott, Beavers and Fabian are all possibles. McDermott is no sure thing, but SD could view him as a younger Cease. If SD wants budget relief, a package of McDermott, Beavers and another prospect is something SD might accept.
Mountcastle will make around $6M. SD doesn’t want to pay that. Defeats the purpose of what they are trying to do. It will be prospects or pre-arb players.
Think Orioles would be better off keeping those dudes and signing Sasaki, Bauer or Scherzer.
Perfect world the Padres could get something like Kjersted & Rogers depth from Baltimore but would work in SD but odds are that won’t happen
Pads can still contend if they can unload Arraez and Suarez which would allow some cash to fill out roster. (Around 24 mill).. Would probably have to take very little in return unless they pay down some of Arraez.
If they trade Cease as well you are not looking at a viable path to a wildcard.
Bingo
Padres can’t contend if they give up those two.
Here is reality. The Padres are still a top 10 offensive team and have as good of a 1-3 in the rotation as anyone and a great bullpen.
They have two guys coming that will fill in nicely in LF Ornelas and IF Rosario. If you don’t know their names, you should look.
They need a catcher, a #4-#5 starter, and possibly a LF. That is it.
They have no need to trade Cease or Arraez or Suarez.
This is oddly familiar to this time last year when Jakob Marsee was your next great Pads OF.
The Pads will potentially not have payroll space available to them to plug all those holes. That’s why they’d look to move on from Arraez’s $16MM salary. But you know that.
Pads, it is Ryan. You have gotten really good at picking out his new names. Great job.
The old swap the username for backup!
You are worse than Ryan with that. I’m an O’s fan though. Maybe you and your 3-4 accounts can do your due diligence and figure it out!
Wonder what the Reds can expect for de la Cruz?
You are Ryan and that is what is so sad about your posts.
I don’t love the Burnes comp. Burnes had four straight top level years at the time of the trade. His last three years then were top 5 caliber. Cease had a monster 2022, terrible 2023, and very good 2024. He’s not consistent, and for a one year rental, that introduces more risk than came with Burnes. Even Cease’s performance last year was up and down month to month more than you’ll see with a traditional ace. Plus, he got rocked in the postseason afterward. He’ll bring back a lot, but Burnes has been a better pitcher by all measures.
Dylan Cease over past 3 seasons
SO – #1 total and K/9
WAR – #5
ERA – #10
FIP – #7
IP – #10
He is the definition of an Ace.
But on a similar note, what can the Yankees expect for Gerrit Cole?
Your numbers are off. Last three years for qualified SP, Cease is 26th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 4th in K/9, 43rd in WHIP, 31st in xFIP, 5th in WAR. He’s durable and strikes guys out for sure, but isn’t the ace you’re making him out to be. He does have that upside when completely right. But he also has had a year where he was barely startable, and was very uneven month to month last year. He’s not equivalent to what Burnes was the previous three seasons before his trade. He was 7th in ERA, 4th in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, 4th in WHIP, 10th in K/9, 2nd in WAR.
The numbers I posted are for SP that have 450 IP or more over 3 seasons.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
I don’t include SP as “qualified” if they have less IP than that because it means that in multiple seasons out of those 3 they would not have qualified for things like the ERA title.
If you think a qualified starter is a guy that throws 25 starts and 120-125 IP per season, more power to you. I don’t.
I use the actual definition of qualifies IP as everyone does. Its not a preference, its the way its categorized. My numbers are where he really ranks vs where burnes ranked w same criteria. He’s a low end ace, i know that, but he doesnt have same value now that burnes had same time last year.
Ma, what Fangraphs counts as qualified for multiple seasons is not what it would take to be considered qualified in a single season multiplied by three.
To be counted as qualified (Rate Stats Qualifier) for one season a SP would have to have 162 IP. That is 486 IP over 3 seasons. Pads Fans was a little low in his sort, but Fangraphs doesn’t have an option for 486 IP.
Your numbers do not account for what qualified actually is every season of the last 3, so they do not represent where actually qualified starters rank over the past 3 seasons.
Even Pads Fans numbers add 5 pitchers that would not have qualified in at least 1 season out of the last 3. Your count includes 86 that would not have qualified in at least one season and 41 that would not have been qualified in 2 of the 3 seasons.
Hope that helps clear things up.
The actual definition of qualified for a SP is 162 IP per season. 1 IP for each game the team plays. Over 3 seasons that would be 486 IP. So your numbers are no where close to where he really ranks among qualified starting pitchers.
On the list of 106 “qualified” SP you are utilizing there are only 24 that would actually be qualified over 3 seasons. Here is your list. fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
That is why I used 450 IP. I wanted at least most of the SP on the list to have qualified all 3 seasons. Cease is near the top of the list for all of the categories I listed. At a minimum top 10.
Burnes over the 2021-2023 seasons
SO – #2 total and #5 K/9
WAR – #3
ERA – #2
FIP – #3
IP – #4
Burnes was also the definition of an Ace over that period.
Cease is a top 5-10 SP in MLB over the last 3 seasons.
Burnes was a top 3-5 SP in MLB over 2021-2023.
Value is based on two things. What the selling party wants and what the buying party is willing to give. We know that the Padres wanted Mayer, Abreu, Fitts, and Gonzalez for Cease. To get him, your team is going to have to come up with something similar or he will stay a Padre.
The Brewers received a MLB ready #63 overall/55FV prospect, a former #90 overall prospect who had a 3.26 ERA in his first 18 games in the majors, and a #34 overall draft pick.
The Padres asked for a top 10 overall/60 FV prospect who is a year away from being MLB ready, a glove first platoon RF, a back of the rotation/swingman MLB SP, and a MLB ready SP prospect outside the team’s top 10.
Should have scrolled down. You had answered that pretty well already Web.
Nobody knows what the padres are going to do payroll wise. They seem to only be willing to trade cease or Arraez if someone overpays.
I think the Padres are waiting on Roki to decide. I’m sure Preller has a plan either way.
Lots of padres fans panicking over the lack of spending. Go look at what they did last year from this point on in the offseason.
The ownership drama may even lead to the team doing more to not lose fan support.
Time will tell, I have full confidence they will be a serious contender again next year.
Bingo!
The Bingo of optimism. Good for mental health.
Since we’re on the subject of capricious trades, I wonder what the Phillies can expect for Harper?
Or the Red Sox for Devers. I heard that discussed on MLB, which I’ve been curious about since they have a surplus of young quality LH bats and Devers may profile long term as a DH.
Team is the 2010s Giants without the rings. Can only compete in even-numbered years.
Padres have no chance this year sell the team
Could’ve resigned Perez for a basket of warm biscuits
Or 2 fish tacos. Damn…
Padres 2025 moves:
Trade Dylan Cease to Mets for:
SS Jett Williams
2B/SS/OF Ronny Mauricio
RHP Jonah Tong
Trade Luis Arraez to Yankees for:
RHP Clarke Schmidt
Trade Xander Bogaerts and $72M over 9 years to Red Sox for:
1B Tristan Casas
Trade Jake Cronenworth to Guardians for:
C David Fry
Sign RHP Roki Sasaki
Sign LRP Tanner Scott 4yrs/$54M
Sign LF Jurickson Profar 3yrs/$36M
Sign LHP Jose Quintana 1yr/$13M
Sign INF Donovan Solano 1yr/5M
2025 starting lineup:
Jett Williams
Fernando Tatis
Jurickson Profar
Manny Machado
Jackson Merrill
David Fry
Tristan Casas
Luis Campusano
Eguy Rosario/Ronny Mauricio
$2025 starting rotation:
Michael King
Yu Darvish
Roki Sasaki
Jose Quintana
Clarke Schmidt
Lay off the booze
Living on a pink cloud
It’s all pink on the inside
Replace Jett with Gilbert and Tong with McLean, and I think it’s more realistic. Gilbert (#74 MLB top 100), Mauricio (#73 BA top 100), McLean (top 10 Met prospect).
I think Padres could make McLean into a number 2-3 SP with the huge spin he gets on his slider and success they’ve had with others. Mauricio big upside, very toolsy. Gilbert is going to be a solid OF, and then you wouldn’t need Profar who had one good year so can’t really count on him.
If the Pads trade Cease to anyone, they will want major league ready players in return. Gilbert isn’t that. I agree that the Mets will be hesitant to include Tong, and agree on McLeans upside. I’d swap those two, but Jett will be the mainstay in any Cease trade to NYM, imho.
I just dont see a top 50 and a top 100 in a deal for cease. 1-2 good months and jett is back to top 30 status. I dont think jett is any more MLB ready than gilbert is though.
Plus, couldnt SD use the LH bat more?
Just look at the strikeout numbers. Jett is way more MLB ready than Gilbert, and will be a nice replacement for Arraez leading off. Plus he fills a key area of need at SS. Jett is also a lefty. And I think you may be overvaluing him a bit. A singles hitter with little to no pop, and good hands but not great range or arm at SS (his future is more than likely at 2B)…he will make or break his stay at the mlb level with his speed and obp. It’s a good fit for the Padres. And where exactly does he fit on the Mets? The Mets need an Ace now, to make their run in 2025. They have plenty of money to sign Cease moving forward.
Jett is a RH bat. He has power potential for sure. His 13 HR in 2023 shows that upside. Theres a reason he was a top 30 prospect before his injury riddled year last year. He has altuve upside and i dont see the mets letting him go.
Jett is not enough as a headliner. Padres asked for Mayer as headliner from Red Sox.
Padres don’t have a need at SS. They have a need at C, LF, and SP.
Maybe, they really want to move Xander to second.
They play Jett in CF now as they see that as his future since lindor is there. They also tried him at 2b. He has the athleticism for both. He’s more than enough as a headliner. Asking for mayer doesnt mean they were close to getting him or that it was a realistic ask.
I dont think they trade cease now anyway bc theyll ask for too much, so why trade him if they dont need to. Arraez i think definitely gets moved.
When the Red Sox came calling, the Padres asked for Mayer, Abreu, Fitts, and Gonzalez. Gonzalez was subsequently part of trade for Crochet.
So Preller wants
a top 10 overall type prospect,
a platoon OF,
a 5th starter,
and a MLB ready SP prospect.
Start your discussions there.
I would think that with the inflation we have seen in pitcher salaries and trade costs this offseason, slightly more than the 2 Top 100 prospects and a #34 draft pick that the Brewers got for Burnes.
This. And cease is making less than burnes was.
$2M less won’t move the needle much.
The ideal scenario would be to offload some of the money owed to Xander Bogaerts or Jake Cronenworth, but trading an underwater deal isn’t easy.
========================
Y’all need to think outside the box. SD will take a negligible loss on Cro, but doesn’t move the needle. They would take a huge loss on Bogaerts, and might be better off hoping for positive regression.
IMHO, the best trade candidate would be Machado. His performance is weakening, but still good. You could probably trade him without a huge loss. If they wait just 1-2, he might be untradeable.
Preller has said he doesn’t see Cronenworth’s contract as underwater and will not treat it as such in a trade.
Joe,
Preller has said that he does not view Cronenworth’s contract as having any negative value. He would not take a loss of any kind on a trade for him. He would just keep him instead. His 2 WAR was worth $18-20 million and he made $7 million.
Machado is not being moved at all.
This morning on WFAN they were discussing trades for NYC teams. Two involved the Padres. The one I thought that made sense was Stroman and $18 million, Schmidt, Pereira, and Vivas for Cease, Cronenworth, and a pitching prospect whose name I don’t remember.
If I was Preller, I would take that. In that scenario, Stroman is free for the Padres in 2025 and if he throws 140 innings in 2025, that means he pitched well enough to be a #5-#6 in 2026 or to be traded in the offseason. Who proposed that trade?
How come the article’s printing towards the end starts to fade?
How come the article’s printing starts to get faint at the end?