The Twins and Padres have both been fairly quiet this winter but could be ramping up to make some moves before the season starts. Per reporting from Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the club have discussed trade scenarios involving catcher Christian Vázquez but the Twins are also among the clubs that have interested in San Diego right-hander Dylan Cease.
That’s not to suggest that a one-for-one swap of Vázquez for Cease is at all feasible. Vázquez is going to make $10MM this year, making him a bit overpaid as a part-time, glove-first catcher. Cease, on the other hand, is an excellent starting pitcher who is going to make $13.75MM this year. That gives him tremendous surplus value.
That the Twins would be interested in Cease is not surprising as just about any club would be, since he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past four years. From 2021 to 2024, he has made at least 32 starts in each of those seasons. His 716 innings thrown in that time is seventh in the majors behind only Aaron Nola, Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, José Berríos and Kevin Gausman.
That quantity has also come with quality, as Cease has allowed 3.52 earned runs per nine while striking out 29.7% of batters faced. His 9.7% walk rate was on the high side but not by much. His 17.2 wins above replacement in that time is sixth in the majors, behind the five the aforementioned pitchers but ahead of Berríos.
The best free agent pitchers generally get over $30MM annually, with Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes both getting over that line this year. Even older pitchers coming off injury-marred seasons like Alex Cobb and Justin Verlander will outearn Cease this year, with each getting a $15MM salary for 2025.
All those factors make him very valuable to the Padres but they might be boxed into a corner where they have to consider making him available. RosterResource projects them for a $208MM payroll this year, which is well beyond last year’s $169MM figure. They can reportedly push a little higher than their 2024 number but not by too much, so cutting some decent money seems to be necessary. They will have to do that while also filling holes in left field and behind the plate, as well as the rotation.
There aren’t many great options for clearing money. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove all have no-trade clauses on their contracts. Jake Cronenworth only has an eight-team no-trade clause but his deal is tough to move regardless since his production dropped off after he signed that deal and there is still $71MM to be paid out over the next six years. Robert Suarez only has three years left on his deal but the opt-out/player option a year from now complicates trade talks.
All that leaves Luis Arráez and Cease as the best trade options. Each is going into his final arbitration season and set to make an eight-figure salary. However, Arráez may not have tremendous trade value, despite his elite batting averages. He’s not a good defender, baserunner or power threat, limiting his overall production.
It all leaves the Padres and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller with a tricky tightrope to walk. Cease is probably their best option for doing a trade somewhat resembling the Juan Soto deal from last offseason. In that deal, the Padres took one great player and his notable salary, trading him and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for a five-player package. One of those players was Michael King, who bolstered their rotation. Another was prospect Drew Thorpe, whom the Padres used to get Cease. The additions of Kyle Higashioka, Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito also bolstered the catching and pitching depth.
Flipping Cease to help in several areas might be the best option for the Friars now but it would also likely weaken the rotation that already looks like a soft spot. With Musgrove set to miss the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the rotation currently consists of King, Cease, Darvish and question marks. Guys like Vásquez, Brito, Matt Waldron and Adrián Morejón are potential back-end guys but it’s not a strong overall group. That would be even more true without Cease.
The Twins have their own financial concerns but could perhaps make it work with Cease. Recent reporting has suggested that the Twins don’t really need to cut payroll but don’t have much room to add at the moment either. Trading part of the $10MM owed to Vázquez would help, as could moving the $7.5MM owed to Chris Paddack or the $6.4MM for Willi Castro.
The Twins currently project to have a rotation consisting of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Paddack. Swapping in Cease for Paddack would obviously be an upgrade, considering Paddack hasn’t pitched much over the past few years due to elbow issues, including Tommy John surgery, and has had middling results when on the hill.
The Twins also have some young and affordable pitching that would surely interest the Padres. Pitchers like Zebby Matthews and David Festa debuted in 2024 without much success but both were notable prospects last year and could still have plenty of success ahead of them. The fact that each still has six years of cheap control available would be great for the Padres, but the Twins would have to think about whether that’s a fair price for just one year of a pitcher like Cease. The Twins also have arms like Marco Raya, Travis Adams and C.J. Culpepper in their depth mix.
As recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, the Padres might look to last winter’s Burnes trade as a decent comparable for Cease. The Brewers flipped one year of Burnes for two notable prospects in DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Both were top 100-type prospects that had cracked the majors but hadn’t been established yet.
That is perhaps the kind of return that could work for the Padres. Subtracting Cease for pitchers like Matthews/Festa would lower their rotation certainty but give them more options at cheaper prices. The Twins may not be keen on such an arrangement, however, as the report from The Athletic indicates that they “would prefer to provide a value-laden package to replenish the Padres’ depth as opposed to the higher-upside talent Preller likes to hunt.”
Though Preller has been exceptionally quiet this winter, it’s possible that it’s time for him to pounce. The Padres were one of the finalists for Roki Sasaki and he would have been a massive help for their current predicament. As a plug-and-play ace who will be making the minimum salary this year, he would have been a great fit for the club both in terms of roster construction and their financial situation.
Perhaps Preller was waiting for clarity on that massive decision from Sasaki. Now that the young righty has officially signed with the Dodgers, Preller has to pivot to other options. Given his constraints, a Cease trade might have to be on his to-do list. If so, the Twins are surely not the only club interested, so Preller should be fielding plenty of calls.
San diego doesn’t know what it wants. first, a trade for a player, and now they want to unload him. Are they all in or not??
The MEDIA doesn’t know what the Padres want. Read the article in the Athletic. There is one sentence about Cease at the very end and it says they are not likely to trade him.
You realize you contradicted yourself right? The media does not know what they are talking about but check out this article…….
Nope. You have reading comprehension issues. The article itself says that he will likely not be traded but this site seems to say in every article regarding the Padres that he will absolutely be traded.
Pads- this is true. This site has mentioned the padres cutting payroll w Rey time they say their name.
We don’t know for sure what will happen but it is possible that they will.
It is also probable that they won’t since the guys that know for sure have said they won’t.
Pads Fans is right. There have been some times where this seemed like an absolute sellers market this offseason, so dangling a guy like Cease, Cortes, Castillo, or whoever makes sense even though they’d help a contender…..but only if it’s a massive haul in return. If Cease returns a haul without hurting the Padres chances this year, they’ll trade him. If not they’ll keep him. It’s simple but it’s not a yes or no.
There is no Cease trade that doesn’t hurt the Padres for 2025. He’s a rental which means only surefire contenders will have any interest in him at all and those teams won’t trade their core pieces.
Agree. The Media is pushing for a trade.
If it has been floated by the Seidler Bros run ownership group than, unfortunately it has teeth to it.
The Seidler Bros are on a quest to undue everything Peter Seidler built.
I was unaware that the Seidler brothers were running the Padres. The website says it’s Eric Kutsenda and MLB announced they had postponed a vote on a new control person.
Why is the media pushing for a trade ? That seems weird.
Is it because of all the hate they have for the team ? You know, Rosenthal has it in for the padres, Lin has it in for the padres, Acee has it in for the padres, MLBTR writers have it in for the padres. Is that why they are pushing for this trade ?
Could it be the Padres don’t want to add, instead of subtract payroll for the next few seasons. They are going to start building up the farm system like the old days.
Sure, to the detriment of the Padres fan base.
Dawg, how? The Padres have quite a few long contracts that can’t be moved. Their window of contention is open right now.
The Padres are not all in lol. They’re actually disgusting. Record attendance last year, and they respond by lowering pay roll again. Once Seidler passed the entire methodology of the old cheap Padres has returned. Will not spend a dime, let everyone leave. The difference is, they have hundreds of millions tied into awful contracts. This team is making no effort to compete and will be trash for years to come.
Payroll is actually way up from last year due to the acceleration of backloaded deals and arb increases.
No thanks
I’d take Ober and Festa or no deal… and I’m sure Minny isn’t too entertained with that idea!
Agree, Zebby would get lit up in the NLW
AJ leveraging Cease between MIN and BAL.
True dat!
Dodgers. Seriously.
We thought the dodgers didn’t need anyone else so many times
Until they signed the next guy
The Dodgers pounded Cease in two huge games (one a playoff) at the end of last year. They are not impressed.
Twice in the playoffs. Combined 8 ER 10 H 3 BB in 5.0 innings.
Well i mean it was the Dodgers. He’s still be an upgrade over what they have at the #7 starter slot.
@taran7 and highflyballintorightfield – Hmmm, very interesting. And yet the mighty Kershaw has had some stinky playoffs in the past and they sign him again… and again… and again. I think Smaug would like to add Cease to its treasure one day too. Time will tell.
Cubs could flip Assad, Rea and a big Mac with fries. Take the contract and extend their draft pick
Done
The Cubs are especially adept at flipping asshads
I’d assume any arm the dodgers would trade the padres is about to fall off. Dodgers can wait a year to take Cease as a depth starter behind the other 8.
Cardinals ought to be putting a package together with Arenado and whoever else it takes to get Cease. Maybe Arenado and Jordan Walker would be enough to get it done. Cardinals need someone like Cease in the rotation. Give the BFIB something to cheer about!
The Padres don’t want to add money. Not sure Walker alone moves them enough to take on Arenado’s $$
Padres already added money. $40 million. They will also have to add $1.5 million more at a minimum to fill out 26 man roster which isn’t full. Preller said today that they are targeting a MLB LF, so its not done.
You have to keep in mind that the Padres did much of their heavy lifting AFTER January 22nd last season. Other than the Soto trade, only Matsui and Go had been added by this point. Profar, Peralta, and Cease were added in February and March.
Take a look at the opening day roster that included Avila, Mazur, de Los Santos, Cosgrove, Azocar, Pauley, Rosario, and had Wade as the starting 3B. Arraez, D. Peralta, Solano, Scott, Adam, Hoeing, and Perez were added after the season started.
@Pads Fans – I wish it were so but the 2023-24 offseason was a different animal than the current one. Trading Soto yielded a treasure trove of players including Higgy and King. As we know they spun some of that and other prospects for Cease, Arraez, Scott and Adam. The prospect cupboards are mostly bare now and they still need players unless they’re confident in Campusano, Ornelas and some of the young pitchers to have breakout seasons. Preller claimed they made a “competitive offer” to Higgy but he walked. They claim they really wanted Profar back but now he’s in ATL for a reasonable contract. I’m thinking maybe just try their current young players again in ST and see if any have improved and look like they can “stick”. Their lottery ticket on Profar worked out incredibly well last year but there isn’t much else left but more lottery tickets in free agency and those don’t often play out well. Any good starters that they can trade actually subtract from their roster other than possibly Suarez and Arraez although if they’re going to try and make the playoffs, I would argue both those guys are very beneficial to have.
Is the BITA and PITA steel cage match scheduled yet?
@laynestaley. It’s the same person. He’s like the movie split and argues with his 30 different accounts.
I’m rooting for a Double KO!
Have you not been paying attention to the Cards strategy? Trading for a guy under contract for only one year and including Walker would go against their plan and would be a terrible trade even if they got rid of Arenado’s salary.
And where is Arenado going to play in SD? DH/Bench?
He would play 1b,but they aren’t trading for him.
Typical Cards fan posting dumb stuff that makes no sense.
Good job making the rest of the posters look smart
Just when you thought they would cease talking about trading Cease.
If Mariners were smart they’d acquire Cease for Hancock & locklear, then ship Castillo for Casas or Boehm
Hancock and Locklear? Yeah probably not…
More like if jerry dipoto hit his head
Cease would post insane numbers in Seattle but leave after a season to sign with the Mets
Unless we get another starter back (like Jordan wicks or one of the Boston guys) I doubt a trade happens
Why would the Padres want the Mariners #6 starter or a 1B. Especially one that is not close to a top 100 prospect. That is a pretty bad proposal that doesn’t fill the Padres needs.
Red Sox aren’t trading Casas for Castillo straight up Mariners would have to take Masa and all his salary for the Red Sox to do that trade they already told the Mariners that.
Rather acquire Heather and Locklear
Remember, there’s more to life than good looks & attractive features (but not a lot more.)
I might not hate being a Twins fan as much right now if the Twins acquired Cease.
True That
@PITA. Padres are getting rid of salary not adding. My guess is the twins will pay off the Vazquez deal.
Rex, is that why they have added $40 million in salary this offseason already?
Cots has their CBT number up from $227..8 million to $246.8 million, but all of that is due to contractual raises and arbitration increases for guys like King, Arraez, and Cease. Darvish got a $5MM raise, Tatis $9 million, Cronenworth $4MM, etc.
The increase doesn’t mean they aren’t trying to get rid of salary.
40 man payroll is up $40 million. The increase doesn’t mean they ARE trying to get rid of salary. In fact, its pretty solid evidence that they are NOT trying to get rid of salary.
@pads fans i was responding to the arenado offer. That won’t happen. They are about 16 million over the soft number, that’s been thrown out, and that’s cease salary roughly. Wouldn’t surprise me if this was a plan, but with roki taking his spot
Oh. BITA must have commented. I don’t see his garbage anymore. Sorry about that.
What are you talking about soft number..padres are about 1.5m over the tax
The padres would still be shedding money trading cease and eating Vasquez. It would consist cost the twins more talent in return.
@simm. Twins could eat 5 on Vasquez, and he would essentially be replacing higgy.
Pads- I know what you are saying is factual but I think the writing is on the wall that the padres are going to reduce payroll from where it’s at right now.
When I say the writing I’m talking about reports from Acee and Lin. I know what you think of those reports but I believe they are going to shed some payroll. At least enough to get j see the Tax.
Eat $5 million and add what top prospect to the trade? Maya? Morris? Probably have a deal then.
Acee was wrong about his pronouncements last season and the Padres added more as the season went along. Why you would believe him over Kutsenda, Greupner, and Preller I have no clue.
The Padres have made no indication that they are trying to shed salary. None. The chairman/control person, the CEO, and Preller have all said this offseason that they are shooting for a payroll somewhere between 2023 and 2024. They have been adding salary so far this offseason. If they actually shed anything, get back to me, but until then that is not the case.
@pads. They signed nothing, but minor league deals, and floated cease, and saurez everyone has been saying they want to get around the 170’s. It would put them around that. Look not trying to argue I’m currently watching Jon and Jim, and they are saying the samething. Just reading the tea leaves.
Rex- I don’t know about 170 but lower then they are now I do believe.
I would think the total lack of moves despite clear needs is a pretty big indication that the money concern talks have real merit.
Then you factor in A.J. Preller whose decade long tendencies of making sometimes too many moves and I imagine he’s somewhere climbing the walls.
Him parting with around 15 prospects (i.e trade currency) in the Cease, Arraez, Scott and Adams deals further ties his hands. The farm system is another year away before he’ll be able to for lack of better words, blow his wad.
I think he’s cashing in Cease and we’ll probably be better off for it.
Padres haven’t floated Cease. They have said the opposite. They are not shopping him. They have answered if people have called and we know what kind of deal it would take to get him.
No one has said that they want to get to $170, not even Acee and Lin. The only people that matter have said that payroll will be between 2023 and 2024.
Jon and Jim said that Profar was resigning with the Padres. If they are the tea leaves, then you might want to reconsider your brand.
The Padres last large FA signing was in Dec 2022 when they signed Bogaerts. Other than that it has been all trades.
Hot-headed Jim Russell of Jon and Jim is prone to unimformed angry rants spewing sky is falling at every turn and yet seems unaffected by eating a steady diet of crow. I turned off the show the other day when Jim was asserting that Padres FO just didn’t care about the fans because they are not spending as much as the Dodgers. He berated a long time loyal listener for saying most teams couldn’t do that and remain solvent. If that’s his yardstick, them 29 teams don’t care.
@brew88.i was just using them as a reference as far as them not spending. Probably wasn’t the best.There was several reports from writers confirming that on this site. They signed nothing but minor league deals so it looks like that is the case. As far as trading players they could be gauging interest for the deadline.
This site just reports what others have reported. Then give their spin.
I wouldn’t read much into Jon and Jim. That doesn’t the padres aren’t going to move some players that will reduce their payroll. I fully expect them to do that.
@simm. I know. I agree most of this is 25% true.i got into this debate, because pads fans is believing what the seidlers are saying, and that’s probably bs as well. Trust me I’m a angels fan and constantly hear the garbage arte spews for the last decade in a half.
There is literally one sentence in that article from Lin and Hayes about Cease. The article is all about Vazquez. Darragh, did you even read that article before you changed the headline on this one?
Cease to ATL for Waldrep, Baldwin and De La Cruz.
That’s an overpay for a season
*underpay
Yeah it’s an underpay most likely. Waldrep was awful last year. De La Cruz is nothing special. Baldwin would be the prize of the deal I guess, but Padres could probably do better.
For the Padres, yes.
Morosi told us all the type of package it would take to land Cease. That one would not come close.
Even adding Caminiti to the top of that trade proposal, the Braves top prospect but at the back of the top 100, would not come close.
Definitely an overpay. Cease is not enough to win a WS championship for the Braves in one season
Not only no, HELL no!! The Braves should in no way give up any of their prospects for one year of Cease. There is zero chance that he will sign an extension with any team he is traded to, and zero chance that the Braves would sign him back as a free agent.
Yeah if you’re looking for a playoff stalwart keep looking, Dylans a nice rotation piece but has struggled to get out of the 2nd inning in several playoff starts. Maybe he’s Mister May and June
For one year of Cease?? No thank you! Unless Braves knew they could extend him. And he’s a Boras client…hmm…nope!
My guess is Preller will do a deal for cease that is a broad package. One good prospect mlb ready and two three serviceable players with control.
More if they take back all of Vasquez contract.
Doesn’t save a ton of money for the padres and doesn’t add much back to the twins. Padres will get an outfielder, Catcher and a pitcher back in return (not paddack). This is to me is why they were willing to let Profar go. I get he got paid but likely would have taken some form of a discount to come back. Which the padres could have free’d up with a couple of trades.
Fill in the blanks on which. Catcher (Vasquez), outfielder and pitcher.
If the Padres are going to trade Cease why wouldn’t they trade everyone else?
Because they can’t. Too many NTCs.
Start trading away the ones without the no trade clause. Then I bet the others will waive them.
But they have plenty of guys to trade that don’t have a no trade clause. Plenty.
Who else? Arraez? They might. Suarez? They might. King less likely but if he isn’t going to be extended then maybe him as well.
Think the padres are going to trade cease and get back a controlled pitcher and try and still compete. Perhaps they go deeper than that but they aren’t going to going to not compete…
Why would King be a maybe? He would have a ton of value and he’s a soon to be free agent. You think the Padres are handing him a huge contract?
I don’t think they can compete without trading away what’s left of their farm or spending money they don’t have. In the NL Central sure they could win the division. But they look like a 4th place team in the West.
As of now I think the padres would battle for second with the dbacks. Even if they used their farm hands to fill in the holes, guys like Tirso and Eguy.
If they traded Cease and King which I highly doubt they would want young controllable pitching in return. That would be very risky as their season would depend on them being good.
So I think the padres minimize the risk and just trade one.
I think the Padres need to rebuild. They aren’t good enough in 2025 and it’s going to get way worse after that.
Definitely would need to also shop King and Arraez, as both will walk after 2025. After that, I’m sure some big market team would be interested in Tatis. Other than that:
Darvish – Owed 4/67 at age 37 coming off an elbow injury
Bogaerts – Can’t see anyone touching this contract
Musgrove – Tommy John, owed 3/60. ouch
Machado – Who needs a 3B that can take this deal on? Maybe call Arte Moreno
Cronenworth – stuck with this guy
Suarez – Is anyone comfortable taking on 5/60 for a soon-to-be 34 yo reliever?
Suarez has 3 years left at 10m in 25’, opt out or opt in to two years at 8m per.
Suarez has real trade value.
Ouch scary roster construction when you put it that day. As u-boat apt to say: dive dive dive
Darvish deal is perfectly fine. After this seasons he is base paid 15m a year. Which is nothing for a starter at any age these days. Think he showed in the playoffs bs the dodgers he is healthy and still very good.
The issues with Xander, manny and cronenworth are the years remaining on their deals. These contract may not age well but they are fine for the next few years.
Daahhh!
Simm, you don’t have to guess. We already know what type of package Preller is asking for and have known since the winter meetings.
The Twins will have to eat all of Vazquez’s salary if they are to have any chance of getting rid of him. He has had 2 seasons below replacement value. Even eating all of his deal they will have to add a good prospect just to get a low level prospect back. That is the reality of the Twins situation regarding Vazquez.
Trying to include him in a trade for Cease increases the Padres already substantial ask for Cease even if the Twins eat all of his 2025 salary.
Pads need to reset this year.
Trade Cease, Arraez, Suarez and see if there’s any takers on Crone. Also, see if someone would overpay for King.
King should be one of the first to go. He’s got some good trade value. And he’s probably moving on after 2025.
Yeah. No!. Padres have one of the highest payrolls in the game and more top players on the roster than they did at this time last season. So just stop.
Would love to see Padres keep everybody and just go for it in 2025. Fans deserve it. And if they make it deep into the postseason there should be financial benefits to that which will help them in 2026. I really don’t get this idea that they need to trade every last player of surplus value on their roster.
FO has been fairly quiet this offseason but Preller’s trades are rarely hinted at prior to happening. Hard to say for sure what direction the team is going, but the “idea” you elude to seems to be a media construct and ranges from a fire sale to a major payroll reduction. But those directions would seem counter intuitive given the longterm payroll commitments to many stars on the roster, and are not supported by any statements from the FO to date. A lot of fans are impatient but I’ll wait to see what the opening day roster actually looks like before rendering an opinion on team direction.
I agree with this but they are going to trade some players this offseason. Even if they keep payroll near where it is now they still will move some players.
The question is after they move some players are they better or worse. On paper it may not look like it because they will be likely trading for young players. You just don’t know how they will perform until we see them.
I agree Simm a trade or two coming for sure.
Both the Twins and Padres are trying to do the same thing which is compete on a limited payroll. How does a deal with these 2 teams make any sense?
The Padres should be selling. They can’t come close to competing in that division and things are going to get worse before they get better.
The Twins need to do something. The AL Central is wide open and the Twins have a good team if they can stay somewhat healthy.
Padres have a much better chance of being a wild card in 2025 than the Cardinals have of making the post-season on some capacity. No reason for Padres to move Cease or King. If they trade anyone it will be Arraez or Suarez, but most likely they do nothing and use kids for their depth and vacancies.
I don’t approve of the Cardinals offseason so far. If I was in charge I would be selling.
The Padres are a 4th place team with a bunch of soon to be free agents who they could get a lot of value back for now and will get nothing but picks back later.
The Padres were all in. It’s time to be all out and rebuild.
@BITA
4th place team? They won 93 games last year and almost best the Dodgers in the playoffs. Who’ve they lost other than Profar? Who’s overcoming them? I don’t think the Dbacks or Giants have enough to blow by them? The same way you might think those teams might pass the Padres, then logically, they shouldn’t be as much pushover vs. the Dodgers.
They did lose Scott and Higgy as well.
BITA
I think the Padres have a good shot for the wild card in 2025.
Cease-King-Darvish is a solid front three. Tatis, Merrill, Machado are three elite hitters. Bogey and Crony are bad contracts but both are still good players. If they keep Arraez, he is a solid bat though the most expendable of someone has to go. Suarez-Adam-Estrada is a top five bullpen trio in MLB. This is easily a 84-85 win team. Will Snakes or Mets or the Central runner-up do better, I don’t know but it will be close. I see Dodgers, Phillies and Atlanta (WC) as likely. I see the Cubs as a game up on the Brewers and two on the Reds, but really any of those three could win the Central on the mid 80s. No reason for Padres to trade Cease or King unless they are way out by the trade deadline IMHO. Really, the only player that I think Cardinals should move quick is Helsley and only if they get an elite return including two top 100 overall prospects or one such prospect and a MLB ready starter.
They lost Kim. And Scott. And Profar. And a catcher i think. And they have done nothing to replace them.
And the Dodgers got a LOT better.
I guess the Padres could wait until July to trade their guys. But they can’t even field a team the way it stands right now. The Cardinals have a team even if it’s not as good. I think the Cardinals have a better chance of winning their division than the Padres do.
Knicks
They lost Snell (huge), Profar and Higgy.
I see that as going down from 93 wins to maybe 85. I see the Padres as a WC 2 or WC 3, definitely better than the Giants. Comparable to the Dbacks. Comparable to the Mets. Now, Mets probably aren’t done shopping.
Typo in my above post
Giants lost Snell, so my point is that Padres are still way ahead of Giants. My post reads like Padres are the ones who lost Snell. LOL
Who’ve they lost other than Profar?
========================
Kim
Musgrove
Scott
They are worse this year than last, but not by much. I’d say they are roughly tied with Atl, Philly, NYM, and AZ.
I did not count Tanner Scott because they did not have him at the beginning.
But yes Profar, Ha Seong Kim and Higgy.
Musgrove was 6-5 in 29 starts with a 3.90 ERA. And they have Jason Adam for a whole year rather than just part of it.
And Musgrove.
BITA
“win the division”
I agree that the Cardinals have a better chance to win their division than the Padres
I strongly believe the Padres have a better chance of being a wild card than the Cardinals have or either winning division or being a wild card combined
That is solely a factor that the Dodgers will likely win more games than any NL Central team in 2025
19 not 29, not a full season
Padres opening day lineup 2024 included the following 9 players:
Profar
Bogaerts
Tatis
Machado
Cronenworth
Kim
Merrill
Wade
Campusano.
Without making any additional moves 2025 OD roster might look like this:
Arraez
Tatis
Merrill
Machado
Bogaerts
Cronenworth
Campusano
Ornelas/Rosario
Ornelas/Rosario
So they gained Arraez, Ornelas and Rosario and lose Profar, Kim and Wade from lineup.
But I think upgrades are still coming at C, DH and LF, or at least 2 of those 3.
I’m good with running that lineup out there. Let the kids play. Forget about the high mileage retread catchers and get a plan going for the future. If it’s time for another fire sale then spark it up. It’s been over 30 years since the last one. Life goes on…
To be fair Arraez did join the team in May so he was here most of the year. The padres as of now have lost about 15 war from last year. A little less because Scott wasn’t here all year.
Some of that war will likely be replaced with guys who fill in those holes. Though there is a chance they could be even or below war level fill ins.
Yeah the lineup and pitching staff changed during the season too. I guess my exercise was to show that what we see today, or even at OD, can change quickly, though early season trades such as the ones for Arraez are not common. Right now the lineup isn’t necessarily worse than OD last year, but I would be surprised if they don’t work a trade to upgrade or add vet depth at DH, back up C, LF
Never trust the Padres when they are trying to trade a pitcher. You will get burned.
Padres are the strangest franchise.
Not bad at all
Cease for OF Keaschall and either RHP Woods Richardson or RHP Andrew Morris makes more sense. Similar to the Burnes trade of Joey Ortiz DL Hall and a draft pick.
Padres should also extend the deal and offer to take Vasquez at full price but twins have to attach RHP Corey Lewis and 2B/SS Payton Eeles
Cease to the Braves. Georgia native.
Only if the Padres would take Anderson and Elder and nothing more
Cease will wind up with LA.
Twins are very high on Festa. I don’t see him going anywhere
Padres have to go back to the pre Siedler days before the big tv contract came. No way they can keep their payroll anywhere near the 200 million. Just not good business, as long as they have MLB running their TV situation can’t really see the present Padre ownership expanding payroll from where it is now. The Padre market is small no TV money to speak for with the Dodgers right up the road spending 2 to 1 payroll, plus the best TV deal in baseball along with the Yankees and Mets.
Padres tv deal is definitely killing them.
They guy who is in charge said that a payroll between 2023 and 2024 is sustainable. I am guessing that he knows far more about their situation than you do.
Pads Fans
I think some posters are unclear what they mean about the Padres “cutting” salary.
Will the Padres cut salary in the sense 2025 payroll will be less than 2024? Probably.
Will Padres cut salary for 2025 compared to where they stand right now? Unknown, maybe not.
That’s not true. They are at 208m now and 169 last year.
They would have to knock it down by ~ $6M to get under the cap. There is no reason to not reset if it only costs you $6M.
Actually 1.5m they are over the tax atm
Last I checked, to get get under the CBT first tier they need to knock it down by $1.5M, not $6M
“As a plug-and-play ace who will be making the minimum salary this year, he would have been a great fit for the club both in terms of roster construction and their financial situation.”
Twist that knife.
Think Matsui has a full no trade clause so switch him with Wandy Peralta.
This is about an even money trade.
Not saying I’d do this deal but the money is about right.
Pods would trade Cease for Vazquez if Twinkies would pay all of the latter’s compensation. Plus a mid level prospect to SD to make it look slightly less suspicious.
No they wouldn’t
MIN improving their starting pitching is a good goal but it doesn’t really make sense if the rumors they were shopping Pedro Lopez and Paddack who they both need as well as an offense that doesn’t spend so much time on the disabled list (I ‘m gonna use the old name)
Plus there were rumors they wanted to sell the team by the end of ST So?
Rumors are incorrect or they keep changing their mind OR they freed up some TV revenue or something..
If they trade him they will be de-Ceased.
Dad, got any jokes?
That joke is funnier than it has any right to be.
Why haze
Cease and desist
To pun or to punt, that is the question
its funny another year another batch of articles and comments about how we have to cut payroll and posters saying we are doomed.
I think its funny that our roster is perfectly setup to graduate young guys, like the plan is completely in place and working. We know AJ sticks by his guys, and hes left LF wide open for Tirso. Catcher, middle infielder, hmmmm.
Wow. Ever since the third inning of game three there hasn’t been much good news for the old pads. Ever since Tatis hit that big old slam Diego and preened around the bases.
Twins better not trade Zebby Matthews. He has elite command and a pretty good 5 pitch mix. He will stick as a starter, the question is where in the rotation.
If Preller tells teams to stop asking about his pitcher, is it a Cease and desist order?
San Diego deserves to squirm after giving Xander that ridiculous contract.
Twins get Cease, Tatis, and old friend Arraez.
Padres get Vazquez, Festa, old friend Paddack, and former USC star Sam Darnold.
Huge overpay by Padres who would surely reject such a deal.
Lol what position is Sam gonna play?
Good question. Without much thought, he went from starting QB to backup QB to starting QB in the NFL so I’d expect a similar projectory in MLB being SP to RP to SP.
Payton Eeles is untouchable
Cease will get the Padres an excellent package of players and prospects back
Arraez has value also
Closer Robert Suarez (All Star)
Those 3 players traded in separate deals
would get great returns to patch all the holes on San Diego’s team.
Trading Cease for a net savings of $3 million is not a great business decision. That’s assuming the Pads dump his $13mil and absorb Vasquez’s $10mil. If they’re going to pinch pennies that much, save money on everything from office supplies to stadium paint to coffee service. There’s no chance the on field product produces more wins without Cease on that pitching staff.
Cease for C Vasquez, 2B/OF/1B Luke Keaschall, and RHP Andrew Morris. Twins eat $5M of Vasquez’s salary. Come on now, Cease is the best starting pitching bargain, even at $18.75M . Twins will more than make up that paltry $5M, on one nights playoff attendance, and then some. Get ‘er done
San Diego should trade Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez to the Minnesota Twins for former World Champion catcher Christian Vasquez, All-Star Infielder/Outfield Utility man Willi Castro and starting pitcher Chris Paddock. Perhaps the Twins would throw in a lower level prospect as well.
This would save the Friars nearly $4 million in salary, and put three players who would fit right into the Padres’ starting lineup. For the Twins, it would give a slight upgrade in the rotation and fill the open First Base spot.
I would do that