The Tigers agreed to a one-year, $10.15MM deal with reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. It’s a massive, nearly 300% raise on top of last year’s $2.65MM salary for the 28-year-old, handily topping the $8MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Skubal, who’s under club control through the 2026 season, will be arb-eligible one more time next winter.
Skubal unanimously won American League Cy Young honors after a dominant breakout showing in which he paced the AL in wins (18), ERA (2.39), strikeout rate (30.3%), K-BB% (25.6%) and virtually every form of wins above replacement (6.3 bWAR, 5.9 fWAR, 6.5 RA9-WAR). The left-hander tossed 192 innings, punched out 228 opponents against just 35 walks and held opponents to only 15 homers. Skubal completed at least six innings in 25 of his 31 starts and held opponents to two or fewer runs on 24 of his 31 trips to the bump. He was as consistently dominant an arm as the sport had to offer, registering an ERA no worse than 3.05 in any individual month of the season.
That dominant performance from Skubal played a major role in Detroit’s surprise run to the postseason — and in the team’s upset win over the Astros in the American League Wild Card series. Skubal was flat-out dominant in the first two playoff starts of his career, tossing a combined 13 shutout innings with 14 strikeouts, one walk and just seven hits allowed in gems over Houston and Cleveland. He took the mound for the decisive Game 5 in the intra-division ALDS showdown against the Guardians and cruised through most of his start until being tagged for a backbreaking grand slam off the bat of Guards outfielder Lane Thomas.
It was a sour note on which to end an otherwise storybook season for both player and team, but Skubal has nevertheless entrenched himself among the game’s elite arms. The Tigers and their fan base would surely love to extend the star southpaw, though as a 28-year-old Scott Boars-represented ace who’s just two seasons away from reaching free agency and a potential $200MM+ payday — perhaps more, depending on how the next two seasons play out — Skubal seems decidedly unlikely to sign a long-term pact.
Looking ahead to the 2025 season, Skubal will get the Opening Day nod and front a staff also including Reese Olson and free-agent pickup Alex Cobb. Presumably, top prospect Jackson Jobe, who debuted late in the 2024 campaign, will have the inside track on a job as well, though at just 22 years old and with minimal experience above the Double-A level, he won’t simply be handed the spot. He’ll need to earn it in spring training.
Former No. 1 pick Casey Mize, rebound hopeful Kenta Maeda, right-hander Keider Montero and former top first-rounders Matt Manning, Alex Faedo and Ty Madden will all be in the mix for rotation work as well — at least as things currently stand. It’s still plenty feasible, whether by free agency or trade, that the upstart Tigers add to the rotation in a meaningful way between now and Opening Day.
This isn’t the deal they should be giving him…
There is likely no deal that would get Scott Borass’s approval.
It’s not Boras’ approval that’s needed, it’s Skubal’s decision.
Fair enough, but retaining Borass as one’s agent suggests subscribing to his approach which is that you are going to get the best deal shopping to 30 teams than to 1. Borass is going to recommend against just about any extension opportunity, and most players will listen to him because they like his philosophy.
I assume you’re intentionally misspelling his name as a dig at Boras, correct? You know he’s not reading these comments, right?
Plus, he’s just good at his job. .
Clearly it’s not when you hire boras
He has an agent for a reason. The team doesn’t negotiate directly with skubal.
I agree. A player doesn’t hire Boras then not listen to him. I doubt most players know what they’re worth. They know what would make them happy, but it’s like hiring a real estate agent to sell your house. Agents (doesn’t matter whether it’s baseball players or real estate) are paid to get you the most that they can.
I’ll be very surprised if the Tigers can sign him to a long term deal.
lol. It’s not when u sign w boras. Theres a mutual understanding you are both after as much money as possible
whiffa,
What player and agent aren’t after as much money as possible?
Also, Corbin Burnes (his agent is Boras) likely took less money to sign with the Diamondbacks.
There are rare occasions (very rare these days) when a player will give a “hometown discount” to play somewhere they are comfortable vs the highest bidder.
In fact, someone just this offseason said they had larger offers elsewhere but a picked a team, I believe, bc they offered a better chance to win. Apologies, totally blanking on who that was at the moment, but I bet another fan of this site could recall.
Any player signing an extension is giving up the potential for a bigger payday in free agency
Burnes would have taken more money and played elsewhere, he wanted a longer deal and said that publicly but the only team offering was the Jays. So he Arizona over the money
Robert,
Burnes’ situation is about the only time a hometown discount makes sense.
In general, expecting a hometown discount for a player who had no choice in what his “hometown” team was is ridiculous. I’d be more inclined to expect the team to pay a “hometown bonus” to a player they developed to entice him to stick around and reward him for his past, below-market-value contributions.
Boras’s guys have extended any number of times (several with the Nats alone). But the clubs’ narrative that Boras is always unreasonable (because he’s their best opponent) has really taken hold. They like bargains & to extend players cheaply because agents want to cash in, and Boras is too successful to coerce his players into taking well-below-market deals.
The Tigers payroll is one of the lowest ones in baseball. I would make him an offer that makes him the highest paid pitcher in MLB and buy out those 2 arbitration years. If he turns it down then we have no choice but to trade him at the deadline of his walk year. Go Tigers!
No options to opt out either. I would go 7 years including the remaining 2 arb years.
Hot Corner,
7 years might get it done, but of course it depends on the dollar amount.
I think it’s more likely he gets the free agency, and considering he’s almost 3 years younger than Max Fried, I could see him looking for a 9-year free agent contract.
Agree on years. I would go 5% to 10% over the top of the market today including arb years. If they don’t take it then we know he is walking after 2026 and he should be put up for auction after Skubal/ Boras decline the offer.
The Tigers rate somewhere around 21st in projected 2025 payroll. Not exactly in the middle, but not too far from it
Tigers need to immediately lock down Skubal to a long term extension
Given the pricetag of mediocre or worse starting pitching this winter, it isn’t a surprise that his deal “handily topped the $8 million projection.”
Free agent prices have almost no effect on arbitration salaries.
Yeah. I don’t know if this was a good faith offer or what.
Regardless, he’ll be pitching his booty off the next couple seasons to get that 9-figure deal….
Exactly. the process is really flawed.
In real estate we take a look at what all the similar homes in your area have sold for to determine your value.
In arbitration they only look at the salaries of other arbitration eligible players to determine your value.
The MLBPA player reps are long term veterans looking out for long term veterans, though, and made this trade off to keep the free agent money booming.
I agree JJ. And it affects pitching different than hitters with pitchers getting screwed. When they go down w Tommy John it effects 2 years of trajectory so they’ll never hit a Soto type number in arbitration
The greatest determining factor should be market value based on what you accomplished last year
Getting maeda money
Yes, from all the stats and my memory of his season, I’d say the Tigers got an incredible bargain.
Bargain. They should be working hard to extend.
Prolly take $200 mil to get the ears perking up….
300
I love it! Good that the organization is sowing some goodwill with Skubal. Hopefully, it pays dividends down the road.
I always wondered how players felt about clubs that paid them chump change as long as they could and weren’t willing to pay them what they deserved until they threatened to walk.
Me, I’m a different breed. I’d be like”you paid me like that and now you want me to sign this extension without even testing free agency? Yeah. No.”.
Dude isn’t taking a discount no matter how much they pay him to avoid arbitration….
Arb isn’t chump change for the best of the best. If they don’t want to extend/bet on themselves no matter what, they are looking out for #1 for maximizing $ in FA and so too should the club in saving $. It’s a 2-way street.
cws,
It’s a one-way street for 6-7 years, then the player finally gets some say in where he’ll play.
Get some say in how much they earn….
MLBPA and owners negotiate that this system works for both of them. If players want to sacrifice something to reduce the control period, so be it. There is no binary good guy/bad guy in the owner and union chieftains looking out for their financial interests.
Sounds about right. With the way pitching has gone this off season 10 million isn’t bad at all. Can you imagine going through arbitration with him? Great way to hurt feelings…
Good point. The “he really stinks, he’s fragile, our private analytics indicate he’s not worth what he’s asking, even though we’d tell potential trading partners the exact opposite…”
Just a guess, but there’s a risk in going to arbitration that maybe the Tigers wanted to avoid–that whatever the projection, he was going to ask for more–and might get it, given his 2024 season. So you settle without rancor, he’s effectively signed, and you still have the capacity to trade him if you can’t reach an extension. A slight overpay (f that’s what it is) is worth it.
2 years of control left. Unless they get a crazy offer, they’ll wait til the ’26 deadline to trade him….
They might get a crazy offer, and it would be higher with the ability to at least QO him. At least it gives us a chance to see trade proposals that include a bunch of busted prospects
Players get shredded apart by their own front office when they go to arb. While it’s just business, some players take it personal which is completely understandable. No team wants to take that chance of creating bad blood with their star players.
YBC,
Remember the Dellin Betances situation? Oof.
I wonder if the Tigers would be open to cashing in some of the pitching depth for Cease and the QO he will command.
Skubal, Olson, Cease, Cobb, Mize/Faedo starting 5
Say Padres get a depth package similar to Soto
2B Hao Yu Lee
RHP Madden
RHP Manning
OF Justice Bigbie
LHP Lael Lockhart
That’s a lot of lottery tickets to give for one player. It is probably too little value, though, given that as a Tiger fan I find some appeal in the deal!
I wonder if the Padres are really seeking salary relief?
Arraez and Suarez.
Expecting only replacement level returns, is it worth just one baked bean?
So he’s a Boras client and has one more season of arbitration? Pretty sure if he has himself another stellar year, he’ll be looking for a 7 or 8 year-deal for well over 200 million. Skubal isn’t signing any extension, he’s definitely testing free agency.
7 or 8 years for $400 Million is more likely what they will require.
If he continues to pitch like last season or even near that level, he should get a much better contract than Fried or Burnes.
I think he will cap out at around 35 mil per season through age 36. So that’s around 250 mil
Tigers should be looking to trade him asap ! If he dominates again, his arb number next year will diminish his value
I’m expecting more like 8/300
It’s what I figured it would cost, and it was a fair price. They’ll get another discount next year as well. The dead ball era should make him quite rich with his stuff. The Tiger will have to go way above market next season to keep him, and if that don’t work, then trade him for a great pick.
Tigers rotation the way I see it:
Skubal
Olson
Hurter (he is the second best pitcher)
Cobb
Mize
I don’t think Manning has the stuff needed for sustainable success. I don’t think Montero does either. And I think Maeda is washed up and will never be reliable again.
Tigers pitching alone is probably good enough to get them to around .500 but the offense is still majorly lacking in power and I think Alonso is undoubtedly the guy they should be after but aren’t. I don’t think Keith offers enough offense to play 1B as a regular and it’s a mistake moving him there. Time will tell, I hope I’m wrong.
If not Alonso, I’d be looking into Santander. They badly need a 30-40 home run hitter.
@Luke:
What about the reports that have them linked to Bregman in a strong way?!?
Until there’s a signing, I don’t believe a word of it.
I agree with much of what you say but except for Keith. I think he’s going to be better. Is a .280 hitter with 20 HRs…and .800 OPS good enough to hold down 1B?
Also, Tigers have a couple of minor leaguers, Briceno and Liranzo that might be ready by ’26, that will allow Keith to go back to 2B.
Don’t sell Jung short either. I see Clark in the ML in ’26 too.
No to Alonso. I’d like Bregman, but won’t be disappointed if they don’t get him.
2025 is NOT a WS year. Playoffs are doable. 2026 is the make or break year.
Personally, trade Skubal next off season for a pile of prospects. I don’t believe in $40 million/year pitchers. JMHO.
Nice that the Tigers decided to give him more than projected and just get him signed before arbitration. Done with quite a few guys today. This is why teams like players under control. Very little leverage and a guy like Skubal who put up Cy Young numbers last year will get 1/3 to 1/4 th as much as a someone who has Cy Young stats but has signed the big FA deal. Of course, Skubal will be looking for that big deal in 2 years.
Skubal’s situation is Max Scherzer 2.0.
Players hire Boras to get maximum money and contract at the free agency auction.
Skubal/Boras will not accept any Tigers offers and will not extend his contract and/or give home team discounts.
The Tigers should not make the same mistake that they made with Max Scherzer and Boras.
Once the Tigers final/best offer is rejected by Skubal/Boras,
then the Tigers should trade Skubal (either this year or next year)
in a blockbuster deal for top young players and prospects before Skubal hits free agency.
Trading Skubal makes many teams World Series contenders right away
(Baltimore, Boston, Cubs, Brewers, Rays etc)
This was my same position after Scherzer/Boras rejected Mike Ilitch’s final offer. If the player is not coming back and no deal can or will be done and he and his agent are intent on testing free agency, then have a team/player auction and trade him for the best package of top young players and prospects you can get.
Think Juan Soto to the Padres type return for Skubal
that could set the Tigers up for long term contention.
Dinner is on Tarik tonight.
If he puts up two more seasons anywhere near as good as his 2024 season, Tarik is going to be Daddy Warbucks in free agency!
I don’t know but I’ll be interested to see if the way Boras managed Spencer Turnbull’s last 1+ years in Detroit will affect how Harris deals with Skubal.
Turnbull exploited the injury/minor league option rules (which I’m sure Boras explained to him) to get out of Motown a year ahead of time. Harris, to his credit, didn’t invoke the rule that would have kept him under team control for 2024. Will Boras remember? Harris?
At that salary, $10M/1yr, it seems $20M/3yr would be economically equivicable.
Why did that not happen?
By the way, PomPomBum and Stymenot – your Langford arguments really will rest on the careers of Carson Rucker and Paul Wilson? No? Two cats in a bag.
Hire the Superfife.
Next season his arb number will be 20 or so. It goes up closer to free agency and production
That’s exactly what I am saying. He must be thinking he will get a lot more than $30M/yr in free agency and also wants to get there ASAP, sign that long term deal to lock it in.
He is not taking a chance on missing out or diminishing his opportunity by lingering an extra year or so. An injury or poor performance would do just that.
Smaller market team should all refuse to budge on inflated salaries. Soon….the FAT BOYS VOMIT.
Tigers need to unload skubal asap ! This is his peak value and his return will never be greater. He’s not likely to repeat last season and if he does – he will make like 25 mil in arbitration.
Trade him to the Mets or Red Sox or cubs for a slew of stud prospects before you can’t anymore
Or just make him a reasonable extension offer for fair market value.
So boras can wipe his ars w it ?
Boras will want free agent money and years. So reasonable extension is not an option. Skubal will pitch for Detroit in 2025. Then he will be shopped in the off season. If they punt the first half, he could be shopped at the deadline.
Looks like the Tigers gave Skubal 10M as a good faith gesture. They probably don’t want to feud with him over a couple million bucks, when they’re trying to get him to sign an extension.