The Red Sox made one of the biggest trade acquisitions of the winter, landing Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for four prospects. Boston apparently has interest in keeping their newly-acquired southpaw for the longer term.
Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox and Crochet’s camp at CAA have had at least preliminary discussions about a long-term deal. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures on salaries for the 2025 season. That doesn’t preclude the sides from continuing to negotiate, but it stands to reason they’ll attempt to hammer out a deal to avoid an arbitration hearing for this year.
Crochet is coming off his first full season as a starting pitcher. His early-career injuries and usage out of the White Sox’s bullpen limited his arbitration earnings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the southpaw for a $2.9MM salary. He’s controllable for one additional year and is on track to reach free agency after his age-27 season.
For the next two seasons, Crochet should offer immense surplus value. He turned in top-of-the-rotation numbers on a rate basis last year. Crochet worked to a 3.58 earned run average with a massive 35.1% strikeout percentage. Chicago limited his workload within starts down the stretch. He finished the season with 146 innings despite taking all 32 turns through the rotation. Boston presumably won’t have any qualms about fully unleashing Crochet in his second season as a starter.
Crochet’s contract status was a key issue heading into last summer’s deadline. The southpaw seemed an obvious candidate to move as the ace of a team that was headed to the worst season in modern history. Chicago held onto him instead, in large part because his camp indicated he wanted an extension to pitch into October. To be clear, there’s no indication that Crochet would take that stance again now that he has a full season under his belt. At the time, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote that the asking price would’ve been above nine figures. Passan noted that Crochet’s camp could compare him to Tyler Glasnow, who signed for four years and $110MM in new money on his extension with the Dodgers.
It’s not a perfect comparison. Glasnow was one year from free agency and had banked significantly greater earnings. Crochet is an extra season away. However, Crochet’s second half probably pushes his asking price higher than where it had been at the deadline. He finished the year healthy and is a few months closer to free agency. Even last year’s capped innings tally is above Glasnow’s career high of 134 frames in an MLB season.
Jacob deGrom holds the record for the largest extension for a pitcher with between four and five years of service time. deGrom secured $120.5MM from the Mets covering his age 32-35 seasons. That was an anomaly, as deGrom was a late bloomer but was coming off a Cy Young season. Crochet would certainly look to top more recent precedents like Pablo López’s $73.5MM deal with the Twins and the $71.5575MM in new money which Mitch Keller got from Pittsburgh last spring. A four- or five-year term would seem the most likely midpoint if the sides can reach an agreement. That’d allow the Sox to buy out two or three free agent seasons while Crochet would still have an opportunity to cash in as a free agent at 30 or 31.
Prunella Vulgaris
Good luck, Garret.
Fever Pitch Guy
Prunella – I also wish Crochet the best, I really hope he performs up to expectations.
But I have to ask this question: What did Tony mean by this: “Crochet’s second half probably pushes his asking price higher than where it had been at the deadline. ”
Here’s his first half numbers thru June 30th:
18 Starts
101 Innings
3.02 ERA
.570 OPSA
Here’s his second half numbers after June 30th:
13 Starts
44 Innings
4.84 ERA
.788 OPSA
One would expect him to have BETTER numbers in the second half considering he pitched 56% fewer innings, but instead he pitched far worse.
How does anyone utilizing logic not see that as a major red flag? Based on the horrible second half numbers and the team’s decision to slash his workload in the second half, doesn’t it look like the ChiSox believed something was wrong with him and they slashed his workload to protect his trade value?
all in the suit that you wear
Or the White Sox and Crochet were both concerned about the future. The White Sox likely slashed Crochet’s innings to protect his trade value. Crochet was likely concerned about his innings being way higher than ever before and may have dialed things back. We know he wanted an extension before pitching in the postseason.
Sagacity
With the enormous wealth of Prospects that were given up to get Crochet the extension needs to be at least through the 2030 season to hope to break even on the trade.
Dumpster Divin Theo
They’d better they bet. And it won’t be cheap
Lionoflambs
The guy Crochet is good, but my goodness they gave up so much. Larry Anderson comes to mind
all in the suit that you wear
The Red Sox gave up two guys that may be above average (Teel, Montgomery) and two guys that may be average (Meidroth, Gonzalez). Their future has risk just like Crochet’s future has risk.
demian
The same was being said about Sale and what happened to that wealth of prospects? The red Sox were more than break even
That’s why the call them prospects
Poolhalljunkies
Sag..2030 is reasonable that eats 2 arb years..so 6 years at whatever rate is fair seems like a good deal for both sides. And as far as prospects i will say this in any transaction you get what you pay for and in often times you overpay if you can afford to if there is competition ..at the end of the day crochet has more to prove but none the prospects have proven anything at the highest level yet so its a gamble both ways with like both white and red sox come away feeling like winners
Millar101
Get it DONE!
juggernaut
Agreed % Crochet is worth it, Boston!
soxfan4381
He is worth it? Is that based on him being injury prone or his lack of track record? I’m confused on how he is worth it at this point.
Fever Pitch Guy
soxfan – Red Sox Nation agrees with you, a 6-figure extension right now would be insanity.
But I’m afraid because the Red Sox have backed themselves into a corner, they will feel compelled to do just that. And the end result could severely impact the organization for half a decade.
all in the suit that you wear
What kind of mental problems does one have to think they speak on behalf of an entire fan base?
rememberthecoop
Red Sox Nation applauds your statement.
danumd87 2
I just can’t imagine a nine figure extension. There has to be a discount here given he’s only done it once and has injury/disability concerns. He’s projected around $3 mil at arbitration this season. Let’s assume a strong year and lock him in for $10 mil in ‘26. If they paid him Glasnow money for 3 years after at $25 mil per we’re still talking sub $90 mil for 5 years. That’s a big commitment but nothing that should scare the Red Sox given current salaries.
Fever Pitch Guy
Coop – Thank you!! Haha!!
Fever Pitch Guy
dan – Red Sox Nation agrees, a 9-figure extension right now seems absurd for someone with virtually no track record.
Unfortunately the desire of some here to immediately give him a huge extension is a symptom of knee-jerk reaction and instant gratification.
As just one example, a year ago some people here were clamoring for the Sox to give Casas a massive extension. And now the team is already actively trying to trade him.
Can’t help but laugh at the hilarity of those who always say “Give him what he wants and give it to him right now”. Haha!
demian
Based on what the dodgers gave glasnow, just read the article
demian
No red Sox nation doesn’t agree
Fever Pitch Guy
demian – I read the above article, did you?
In the article Tony clearly states Glasnow had just one year remaining before free agency, while Crochet has two years remaining.
And Glasnow was far more proven than Crochet is now.
Glasnow had a 3.20 ERA and 1.025 WHIP over 71 starts and 388 innings pitching for the Rays in the very tough AL East.
Crochet has just 32 career starts (really just 31) and 146 career innings pitching in the weak AL Central …. and his numbers are a bit worse than Glasnow’s.
So no, Crochet doesn’t deserve as much as Glasnow got from the Dodgers.
WaitTil2026
Speak for yourself, Fever. I would like the Red Sox to sign Crochet to a $140M/6yr deal.
WaitTil2026
Ran the numbers a little more carefully — I think $160M/6yrs with two club options at the end would be fair. The club options are key, as that reduces the uncertainty that would be in an 8-yr guarantee while more or less guaranteeing that Crochet remains in a Red Sox uni for the rest of his prime.
Fever Pitch Guy
Wait – I respect your opinion even though I don’t agree with it :O)
Fever Pitch Guy
Wait – I’ll ask you the same question I asked another, you think Crochet would accept that deal without any opt-outs?
So he gets paid far more for the first two years than he would under arbitration, and then he bounces? How is that a good deal for the Red Sox?
Rsox
6/$120 with escalators seems more than fair for a reasonably unproven commodity
ChetLemonaid
Lol
oldgfan
Ya, what’s a loosely knotted doily worth ?
Pedro Martinez’s Mango Tree
That offer gets laughed right out of the room
Dorothy_Mantooth
There are 2 ways to address the Crochet extension. The first would be to buy out 2 FA years and allow Crochet to return to free agency at age 29. Since Crochet is only projected to earn $20M over the next 2 years ($3M this year and $17M in 2026), an offer of 4/$80M would be reasonable provided that this new contract begins now (2025). That would be buying out 2 free agent seasons at $30M a piece, giving Crochet some life changing money and allowing him to return to free agency at age 29.
The second option would be to lock Crochet up until his age 33 season, which would be an 8 year term. An offer of 8/$200M should be able to get that done, again, provided that the contract starts in 2025. This would average $30M in new money over his 6 free agent seasons. Crochet will have to give a little on AAV in order to secure his fortune now, vs risk waiting 2 more years and hope he’s 100% healthy (and effective) to maximize his AAV and contract term as well.
Fever Pitch Guy
Dotty – Are you saying no opt-outs or deferred money for the 8-year contract you are proposing?
cwsOverhaul
@Mango: That spitball offer isn’t silly for dollars. Crochet will only make around 12 mil or so in next 2yrs “combined”. Tacking on 4/108 is a whole lot of security for his strong debut year of starting. Extensions aren’t full retail price.
That aside, probably best for both to have good but less security and Crochet reaches FA at strong age to earn a monster deal by performance. Perhaps 4yrs/65mil as example with some tier incentives for CYA winner/top 3/top 5.
Joemo
20MM AAV for a guy who has one good half season starting and had TJ as while handling a reliever workload is more than a fair price.
If he doesn’t want that, then let him pitch out his deal and go to FA and risk getting hurt before then which would completely kill any big long term deal.
Fever Pitch Guy
Sure, rush into an extension for a guy with literally 10 career good starts. What could possibly go wrong?
Definition of insanity…
YankeesBleacherCreature
I was going to say maybe let the guy get to 175 IP first before taking the dive. I understand that it would be deeper pool then but at least you’ll know the water isn’t boiling hot.
Pedro Martinez’s Mango Tree
No you’re right, let him win the next 2 Cy Youngs and hit free agency where he’ll cost you double what you can get him for now…
Fever Pitch Guy
Mango – I’m totally fine with waiting just one year, his potential earning value will not double after just one year.
Then it would be two consecutive injury-free seasons and proof he can give at least 180 innings in a season.
Look at the history of highly touted starting pitchers with virtually no track record, most flamed out due to performance and/or injury.
Handing out contracts based on FOMO is not a smart way to do business, it was just 6 years ago when the Red Sox gave Sale a FOMO contract and that obviously blew up in their face and set back the organization for half a decade.
letitbelowenstein
They extended Bello and he doesn’t even have 10 halfway-decent starts.
Fever Pitch Guy
let – Exactly! The Red Sox have had this weird fixation with trying to emulate other franchises, except they mess it up by not copying every aspect.
They gave an Acuna-style extension to Rafaela and a Strider-style extension to Bello because the Red Sox wanted to be the Braves, except the Red Sox foolishly didn’t realize the Braves waited until both those players had a very solid season in the majors before giving those extensions …. the Red Sox didn’t wait for Rafaela or Bello to do the same.
It’s like the Red Sox have OCD and went off their meds.
all in the suit that you wear
Only a troll out to bash the Red Sox would conclude that things are messed up one year into the Bello and Rafaela extensions.
Yaz'sOldBattingGloves
Totally agree. Both Bello and Rafaela are young and both will be better this year.
WaitTil2026
The Braves gave Acuna $100M/8yrs. The Red Sox gave Rafaela $50M/8yrs. Not even remotely similar.
Also a gap between Bello and Strider’s deals.
I expect both of these will work out very well for the Red Sox. Talk to me in six years and we can assess them then.
Fever Pitch Guy
Wait – I totally agree it’s too soon to impose a final verdict on each deal, just like it’s too soon to impose a final verdict on the Grissom trade or the Yoshida contract. Time will tell.
WaitTil2026
I’m definitely not closing the book on the Grissom trade.
The Yoshida deal has less of a chance of recovering. Early-career players like Grissom, Rafaela, and Bello have a better chance of improving on what they’ve already done than guys in their 30s. The question isn’t so much WHETHER Yoshida declines but HOW FAST?
Fever Pitch Guy
Wait – I understand you detest Yoshida, but he’s proven during his brief 2-year Red Sox career he’s at least an .850 OPS hitter when he’s at 100%. As for playing the field, I will take Cora’s word that he didn’t play the field last year because of his health. Of course now there’s no room for him in the outfield, which is why he’s better off getting traded.
Actually, if you want a friendly wager on Yoshida’s performance this year I’m game. I say he improves on his 2024 OPS this year as long as he stays healthy.
Speaking of Cora ….. kinda hilarious Winter Storm Cora is heading across the country. Who ever heard of Cora as a first name? I never have.
WaitTil2026
I’m more interested in overall numbers than in focusing on hot streaks. Yoshida thus far has averaged a .775 OPS, and I’m not seeing much upside to that. Sooner or later his bat speed will fall off and his career will be over — happens to most hitters in their early 30s.
If Yoshida matches/exceeds his 2024 PA and beats on OPS, I’ll happily give you props.
Winter Storm Cora?!? Geez, I thought I only had to worry about him during the summer months.
Yeah, it’s a first name. Not all that common. And reminds me of the film, “Coraline”?
Fever Pitch Guy
Wait – Yoshida’s bread and butter is his plate discipline, that’s something that doesn’t decline much. He’s an on base machine who rarely strikes out and has the ability to make contact, it’s not like he relies on power with exceptional bat speed. Remember the comparisons to Soto not that long ago? And Ichiro had an .851 OPS at Age 35.
Haha …. I learned something new about the Cora name ;O)
Coraline the animated horror film? Yep that’s appropriate for the current Red Sox manager. Haha!
WaitTil2026
Maybe our Red Sox manager has a new nickname?
Yoshida’s plate discipline simply hasn’t been all that good. He chased on 29.2% of pitches outside the zone, ranking him #72 out of 207 hitters (min 400 PA last year). If that is his carrying card, that’s a really bad sign.
I don’t believe I’ve ever compared him to Soto…
Bat speed matters for all hitters. When you can no longer do damage, pitchers stop giving you walks.
Fever Pitch Guy
Wait – I was speaking of others referring to Yoshida as the Japanese Soto :O)
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/37858918/boston-red-sox-ro…
I’m with you on Cora’s new nickname!
dasit
no guts no glory
red sox showed with bello and rafaela they’ll roll the dice
Fever Pitch Guy
Dasit – That’s the problem, Red Sox do far too much gambling just to try and save a few bucks and they’ve been burned many times doing it.
Waiting one year won’t cost them that much more money, and could save them over $100M if he gets injured again.
Shoman5
Fever….Or wait another year and he pitches great. Then they pay double and he could still get injured again. It’s a gamble either way.
Fever Pitch Guy
Shoman – His value will not double in one season.
Gambling is fine on proven pitchers with solid track records like Skubal, but not on a guy with just 10 good career starts coming off TJS.
So what’s the riskier gamble, giving $180M right now or giving $250M after this season?
In the first scenario they are risking $180M, in the second scenario they are paying just $70M more for a lot less risk.
The better business decision is to go with the second scenario.
WaitTil2026
One year isn’t going to change the injury picture significantly.
A deal today would likely be in the $140M to $160M range over six years, and the Red Sox could likely get a couple club options at the end of that. Makes sense to have the option years later in the deal, when he might or might not be worth the money, rather than the arbitration “option” years that will definitely be picked up.
Harder to justify $250M a year from now, no matter what happens. He could win the Cy Young award and that would still be a stretch.
Fever Pitch Guy
Wait – I agree, those who think his asking price will “double” after a good 2025 season are kinda silly. I used $180M-$250M to appease those who think he’s that valuable already.
But yes, one year will make a huge difference. I want to see him pitch 180 innings of sub-3.25ERA ball this year. I want him to prove he’s healthy, durable, and can pitch in the Boston environment.
I want to see proof that his horrendous second half last year was just a fluke. Ten good career starts is insane.
Maybe I am the one who should have “WaitTil2026” as my handle ;O)
YankeesBleacherCreature
@Shoman5 Obviously Crochet passed the physical muster for the Red Sox to make the trade. They’ll have several more months to track his pitching data and make a longer-term health assessment and projection. It’s no guarantee either way like you’ve noted.
We have no idea what numbers both sides have spoken of so there’s no correct answer here.
Fever Pitch Guy
YBC – True that the dollars will be a big factor, which we just don’t know yet.
I wouldn’t put too much stock in the physical though.
Obviously Giolito passed his physical when he was signed.
As did Sale at the time of the extension.
As did Paxton at the time of the trade last year.
Etc etc.
WaitTil2026
Gave my numbers below (above?)… $160M/6yr guarantee with two club options. I believe that would work for both sides.
If the guaranteed money were to approach $180M, or if the option years weren’t included, then I’d be more inclined to wait a year.
Joemo
Bello and Rafaela locked up pretty team friendly deals. A nine figure deal given crochets injury history and performance isn’t going to be team friendly.
It would be a very risky move that could easily backfire.
Letsplaytwotomorrow
The Sox better be sure they didn’t give up four prospects for an unhappy pitcher.
Fever Pitch Guy
Lets – Without question the huge prospect haul the Red Sox gave up resulted in Crochet getting all the leverage on an extension.
Now the Red Sox are basically forced to extend him, otherwise they gave up a ton of young talent for just a 2-year rental.
When Dombrowski traded for Sale, he gave up less in prospects and he got a proven star SP with 3 years of remaining team control. That’s the difference between a HOF executive like Dombrowski and a newbie like Breslow.
WaitTil2026
At the time, the prospects traded for Sale were seen as superior — akin to the Red Sox trading Anthony.
I think you are overrating the talent given up. Perhaps they blossom and prove me wrong, but there is no certainty of that.
Fever Pitch Guy
Wait – Moncada was rated slightly higher than Teel, but prospect rankings don’t take into account positional value, Teel’s value as a potential quality catcher would exceed Moncada’s value at the time as a potential quality 2B/3B. Not to mention the fact catching depth is now extremely thin for the Red Sox, whereas the Red Sox had plenty of talent at 3B/2B when Moncada was traded.
Montgomery is definitely the better prospect than Kopech was at that time. I am neutral on the other two traded for Crochet, time will tell.
TheGr8One
Honestly don’t know how to value this guy dollar wise. I see how the Sox valued him prospect wise but there’s just not a lot of track record to toss silly money his way.
dasit
this is why gm’s get paid the big bucks. breslow could strike gold and be a hero or end up with another kung fu panda
deweybelongsinthehall
While actual discussions beforehand could not be done, hopefully backdoor discussions through indirect channels gave both sides a loose framework of an expected deal. That said, there are no guarantees and the prospects were exchanged knowing this.
Fever Pitch Guy
dewey – Food for thought … when the Red Sox evaluate how much to offer him, how many projected innings are they using in their calculations and how much would a 6-man rotation impact their extension offer?
If he’s gonna pitch 18% fewer innings with a 6-man rotation, I would think they offer him 18% less than market value …. right?
TheGr8One
This is also how GM’s get fired. I hope it works out but so many questions.
Fever Pitch Guy
dasit – Panda was a mistake not just because of his weight issue, but also because his numbers had drastically declined for 3 straight years. His OPS went from .909 in 2011 down to .789 in 2012 and .758 in 2013 and then .739 in 2014. I’ve said a million times, stay away from players who have declined consecutive years. I said this about Story, I said this about Giolito, the list goes on and on.
It was one of the dumbest mistakes the Red Sox could possibly make, I strongly argued against giving that contract. It’s a perfect example why fans shouldn’t always assume the front office knows what they are doing …. quite often, they do not.
Joemo
I would offer him a deal near top reliever money, at or just under 20MM a year. Add in an injury clause like the Lackey deal and it isn’t awful. This way, if he does get hurt (which given his previous work load and injury history is likely), the Sox aren’t paying top starter money for a guy who might be in the bullpen.
A NYer
Every pitcher simply needs to make sure they self imposes an innings limit until he gets a free agent contract. A team will have no problem cutting him loose if he gets hurt due to over usage. Example: Matt Harvey, who the old Mets ownership unleashed a negative PR machine against when his agent attempted to do exactly that despite the player wanting to pitch irrespective of the risks.
explodet
Well, yeah. He’ll refuse to pitch in the playoffs if they don’t.
Fever Pitch Guy
explode – That says a lot about how Crochet feels about his own health, the fact he was so concerned about his health last summer that he demanded an extension as a condition for pitching in the postseason. It was a major red flag to many teams, and a big reason why he wasn’t traded last summer.
all in the suit that you wear
Crochet’s innings were way higher than they had ever been last year. So, I’m not surprised Crochet was concerned.
Quinnap89
While I appreciate the Sox trying lock him up before it costs them a fortune let’s pull the brakes. This is yet another SP with former injury issues that just completed his first season as a starter. Let’s chill before we go and give him 6 more years or so as we haven’t even seen him pitch for us. At least give it this season. You’ve got 2 years before he hits FA. What is going on in that front office?
Fever Pitch Guy
Quinn – Excellent post! I really enjoy your posts and appreciate how you utilize logic, it’s a welcome sight here.
olmtiant
Again I hope for the best… when we gave the farm for Sale he had a much more proven track record.. I hope GC can bring us WSC like Sale.. as for extension ?? If you do and he’s hurt/ brutal etc your burned … if he’s sandy K junior and you don’t he skips town after 2 years like so many others… 5 Year’s 100 million.. how could he say no with his health history ( or something close to those numbers)..
Fever Pitch Guy
olm – There’s also a third option, wait until after this season and then decide to give him an extension.
The fact he was so concerned about his health last summer that he demanded an extension as a condition for pitching in the postseason was a major red flag to many teams and a big reason why no team traded for him last summer. He wouldn’t bet on himself 6 months ago, I wouldn’t be surprised if he pushes for an extension now out of fear another TJS is on the horizon.
ghostofmookiebetts
I hope he either says no thanks I’m betting on myself or demands a huge salary. Make them pay.
Joemo
“However, Crochet’s second half probably pushes his asking price higher than where it had been at the deadline.”
38.2IP, 8HR allowed, 5.12ERA, 1.397 WHIP
I don’t see how this increases his contract demands from his first half. If anything, it should decrease it because he was significantly less effective in much shorter outings.
fivepoundbass
I believe it was more about him staying healthy and adding innings. It is pretty common for pitchers to tire and regress when they reach new innings totals, but then improve the next year when their new baseline has been established.
Joemo
Just because he pitched some innings in the second half doesn’t mean he’s healthy.
The Red Sox already have a pitcher who had a great first half of a season with the CWS,ineffective 2nd half, was acquired by the Red Sox and then promptly had TJ. Lucas Giolito.
Yes, handling a starters workload is very difficult. That’s why it is very risky to give Crochet a 9 figure extension given his performance and injury history.
all in the suit that you wear
Giolito went through a divorce in the second half of 2023 before the Red Sox signed him.
Joemo
Did the divorce also lead to his TJ?
If Crochet isn’t going through a divorce, what’s his reasoning for his abysmal 2nd half of 2024 numbers?
all in the suit that you wear
LOL! Joemo replied to me and put on me on mute and ran away.
Joemo: I don’t know the answers to those questions and neither do you. So, I choose to stay positive.
Joemo
You’re right, I don’t know the answer. But I base my opinions on evidence. Crochet had a very good first half of baseball and then a very sharp decline in the second half in abbreviated innings. Does that warrant a 9 figure extension given his injury history? No.
Look at Jesus Luzardo. If the Marlins gave him a 9 figure extension after 2023 they’d look quite foolish right now.
I hope that Crochet comes out and kills it for the Sox in 2024 while handling the workload of an ace, but all evidence points to that being very unlikely.
all in the suit that you wear
Joemo: You should really take me off of mute, so I don’t have to keep replying to my own comments to answer you.
There really isn’t a lot of evidence about Crochet. So, I think predicting his future is a bit difficult. If Breslow and Bailey like his mechanics of think they can improve his mechanics to where they like them, I think he has a bright future. Let’s see what an extension looks like if it happens.
all in the suit that you wear
or think
Joemo
You aren’t muted, if you were I wouldn’t be able to see your comments and reply 🙂 so not sure what’s going on there.
And I’d be fully on board for an extension that gives him top tier reliever money, but it sounds like crochet will want more than that.
If they could get him for say 20MM AAV with an injury clause like Lackey it’s win-win. Add in some escalators based on cy young votes, IP, etc.
So 5/100 + injury clause + escalators. I’d want to keep one of the arbitration years at least as well. So that gives him long term security while mitigating the risk for both sides.
But if he wants to get paid top starter money, I just think that’s far too risky.
all in the suit that you wear
OK. Well, I have no option to reply to you. I’m not really sure what a good extension for Crochet would be at this point. Maybe they are really low balling him now and will increase their offer as he proves more durable.
WaitTil2026
Here’s a simple framework:
Start from Burnes, $210M/6yrs. Crochet has a (much) better strikeout rate and is five years younger. Burnes is more “proven” and thus far durable. To some extent those two factors balance.
Knock the next two years down from $70M to the $20M that he would get in arbitration. We’re now at $160M/6yrs. Add a pair of club/vesting options at $35M each. Easily worth it if he is healthy and effective at the end of the prior period, but not part of the guarantee. This makes up for the risk that the club is taking on in giving him a guaranteed deal early.
That’s the offer – $160M/6yrs with two options potentially bringing the total deal to $230M/8yrs. I believe that is *much* better than waiting two years and then trying to land him as a free agent. At the very least the Red Sox would need to guarantee those two option years — and most likely a couple more after that.
It isn’t the next two years that are the most uncertain, it is how Crochet ages into his mid-30s. I don’t think the next two years will tell us much about that.
Fever Pitch Guy
bass – You are 100% correct about tiring and regressing, in fact that’s exactly what happened with Crawford and to a lesser extent Houck.
However the ChiSox drastically cut Crochet’s workload on July 1st …. that’s really early for a pitcher to start tiring. I think most would feel more comfortable if his workload had been reduced in August or September. And his performance wasn’t declining going into July, in fact it was improving.
It’s almost like the ChiSox had major concerns about his health, and that’s why they decided to slash his innings so quickly.
swanhenge
I think you sign the stuff.
He has an awesome repertoire and is young. He’s only posted one pretty good year, but I think you move forward with the big contract and trust that he will continue to ascend. Trust that Bailey will keep him moving in the right direction.
LordD99
5/110 with escalators based on starts and Cy Young votes. He gets that first big contract that protects him from injury with a 22MM AAV, with the escalators offering the potential to get it up to a 28-30MM AAV. The Red Sox are guaranteed to have him for five years, with the only way he gets up to the $30MM number is pitching as a legitimate ace. He’ll still be at a below market AAV. The underlying numbers indicate he was as good Skubal last year, but throttled by innings restrictions and by playing for a really bad team.
As a Yankee fan, I hope he bets on himself and is a free agent in two years, but there’s likely a number here that works for both sides.
YankeesBleacherCreature
The innings restrictions didn’t allow him a third time through a batting order so I would approach those numbers with some apprehension.
Mikenmn
Right now the risk is on the player. Until he gets the longer-term contract with guaranteed money he’s just one tight forearm away from trouble. He obviously knows that–that’s what his stand last season meant. He’s controlled until 2027–that’s two years of risk unless he signs. Both sides know that.
baseballguru
Extend him sure, SIGN BREGMAN AND SCOTT! SPEND THE MONEY
Quinnap89
lol it’s very hard when Breslow and Henry are shopping at goodwill and also seeing which color the sale is on the junk too. They need to go
all in the suit that you wear
Spending around the luxury tax threshold every year is not shopping at goodwill.
Quinnap89
I hear you, but it is when the only guys were picking up are unprovens, injured, soon to be injured, have injury pasts, or used to be goods. It’s unfortunate but in order to win it all the Sox do need to spend some money
johncoltrane
Sox better hope & pray crochet remains healthy & stays in boston bc they gave up a ton of offensive talent for a questionable sp
AK sox fan
Its a gamble either way with any pitcher now a days….If he pitches 200 innings and wins the Cy Young then I think his value would double. Im sure you can bet on it some where….He defiantly has the upside but these guys can be done after one pitch. Look at DeGrom he was just Dominant and cashed in and hasn’t pitched for two years and that guy Strasburg is retired early and making Millions. Basically roll the dice!