If there’s one standout trait about the Mariners headed in 2025, it’s their elite rotation; Seattle has the most impressive collection of young, cost-controlled starting pitching talent in the majors right now. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo combined for more than 700 innings of 3.18 ERA baseball in 2024. Gilbert, who turns 28 in May, is the oldest of the group and the quartet has a combined 17 seasons of team control remaining.
That crop of talented young starters is the envy of the rest of the league, but if there’s a second standout trait about the 2025 Mariners it’s their questionable offense. Cal Raleigh is among the best offensive catchers in the game, but the lineup offers little certainty outside of him. Julio Rodriguez has superstar upside but didn’t show it for much of last year as he entered July hitting just .247/.297/.327. Randy Arozarena managed an excellent 11.7% walk rate down the stretch after being traded to the Mariners midseason, but hit just five home runs in 54 games and was worth just 1.9 fWAR overall last year between his time in Seattle and Tampa.
The trio of Raleigh, Rodriguez, and Arozarena all project to be above average hitters in 2025, but the rest of the lineup is well below average. Victor Robles enjoyed a career year after joining the Mariners midseason last year, but his elite performance in Seattle was carried by a .388 BABIP. Between that extreme good fortune with batted ball luck and his career .236/.311/.356 (81 wRC+) slash line prior to joining the Mariners, it’s hard to expect more than league average production from Robles in 2025. Dylan Moore and Luke Raley both posted solid numbers in 2025 but are platoon players who can’t be relied on in everyday roles, while J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver were all well below average hitters in 2024.
The club’s only addition to the offense to this point has been Donovan Solano, who posted solid numbers in 2024 but figures to join Moore and Raley as another part-time player. A combination of Moore, Raley, and Solano seem likely to be capable of handling first and second base, but the club’s lineup still has a gaping hole at the hot corner after non-tendering Josh Rojas and declining Jorge Polanco’s club option. MLBTR explored the third base market as it pertains to the Mariners earlier this month, but none of the free agent options that fit their budget and lower-level trade candidates available are particularly inspiring.
The Mariners have been hesitant to trade from their excellent rotation, only reluctantly listening to offers on pricey veteran Luis Castillo and seemingly shutting down discussions regarding their young core of arms entirely. But shopping a cost-controlled, elite starting pitcher could open up new possibilities for the club to add impact talent that wouldn’t have been available otherwise. The Red Sox reportedly dangled an impact youngster in first baseman Triston Casas in exchange for either Miller or Woo earlier this winter, and it’s easy to imagine rotation-needy clubs offering similarly impactful talent in exchange for a young arm of that caliber.
Dangling Gilbert or Kirby would surely land the Mariners an even more enticing package in exchange given their solid track records of front-of-the-rotation work in the majors to this point. The Orioles, for example, have a deep group of positional talent but are in need of an impact starter. It’s not impossible to imagine Baltimore being willing to part with an established young talent like Jordan Westburg as the headliner in a package for someone like Gilbert, perhaps packaged with a less impactful cost-controlled arm like Dean Kremer to ease the blow to Seattle’s rotation.
Turning away from the Orioles, Mark Vientos of the Mets and Matt McLain of the Reds are among the other high-end, cost-controlled third basemen who the Mariners could theoretically seek as a headliner in a package for one of their top starters, though neither is quite as valuable as Westburg. Of course, such deals are easier to propose than actually execute. While a team like Cincinnati packaging McLain with one of their own rotation arms like Nick Lodolo in order to land an elite talent like Gilbert could make sense on paper, the injury history of both players could give the Mariners plenty of pause about giving up one of their most valuable assets for little in the way of certainty and the Reds may be equally hesitant to offer up two established players with All-Star upside in exchange for one.
That’s just one example, of course, but it’s equally difficult to imagine the Mariners lining up on the right trade package for a player as valuable as Gilbert or Kirby with the vast majority of rival clubs. High-end, cost-controlled starting pitching is the single most desirable asset in the sport, and while fans of rival teams have long dreamed of their GM working out a trade with Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to bring one of the Mariners’ young aces to town they’d surely start feeling queasy about the possibility upon seeing just how much their team would need to part with in order to land such a coveted talent.
If you were in the Mariners’ shoes, how would you approach the situation? Would you take the same course Dipoto has and simply refuse to seriously entertain offers for your elite group of young pitchers, looking to upgrade the team in other ways like by dealing Castillo? Would you listen to offers while holding firm on a high asking price? Or would you compromise on the value of one of your top assets in order to help bolster an offense in desperate need of impact? Have your say in the poll below:
They should buck up and increase payroll. You don’t have to subtract to add.
Agreed. They could go add They could easily add a Bregman and Alonso and they have a nice balanced lineup with two vets. They get the added bonus of a pretty good defensive left side of the infield.
No they couldnt easily add those players. They are FA and FA don’t want to go to Seattle. They would have to offer them so much more than the Astros or Mets to get them to consider going to Seattle.
What’s wrong with Seattle?
There was a HUGE article on MLB.com’s front page about how T-Mobile Park is tougher on hitting than Coors Field is on pitching:
mlb.com/news/seattle-t-mobile-park-tough-hitters-p…
It’s only after 25 years that the team has come to the conclusion that they need to build the team around the ballpark (i.e., emphasize going up the middle and to the alleys).
Also, sad to say, I don’t think that there is a very favorable view of Seattle’s ownership group and front office throughout the player ranks. I agree with slund24 that the M’s would have to overpay top tier free agent hitters to come here because of the combo of the ballpark and the reputation.
Comcast/Xfinity moved the station from basic cable (where it had been for 30 years) to the premium sports tier, so residents had to pay an extra $20/month to watch them and Comcast turned it into a variable fee based on subscriptions instead of a flat fee. So they probably lost about about $10-20 MM in cash flow. As such, they’ve tightened the purse strings considerably.
Right now, they’re trying to thread a very skinny needle: hope the “core 4” starters can continue to dominate while their VERY young position prospect group (Young, Emerson, Farmelo, Montes, Ford, Celestin, etc.) matures through the system to either take their places on the MLB team or become trade bait to enhance the team. The problem is, those pitchers are starting to become more expensive and there’s always the possibility that one or more of them eventually breaks down. They really do need to augment the offense, even if only for a year or two, or else they just might finish behind the A’s in the AL West this year.
My suggestion: make a prospect-laden/poison pill trade with the Padres for Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth. Send San Diego Harry Ford, Michael Arroyo, and Ryan Bliss for those two, but attach the two Mitches (Garver and Haniger), who would actually fill holes on the Padres roster (namely LF/DH and caddy catcher). Also, the Padres would send $15 MM ($5/year) to cover some of Cronenworth’s bloated contract. The Padres would have a very short term salary hike ($3.9 MM or so) for this year, but then Garver and Haniger vanish. They would lose Arraez’s salary forever, and only partially subsidize Cronenworth, so they would still attain some serious savings long-term. Bliss and Arroyo would give them some infield depth, and Ford could be a bridge catcher until Ethan Salas is ready. For the M’s, they gain two LEFTY hitters (the ball travels much better to right and right center field at T-Mobile), one of whom is a 3-time batting champion who would fit the M’s new hitting philosophy to a T. Cronenworth is serviceable enough to cover one of the infield positions until Young and/or Emerson are ready to make the move to the majors.
Jerry Dipoto… you’re welcome! 🙂
The previous poster didn’t mention ballparks; the comment referenced cities. What’s wrong with Seattle when compared to New York and Houston?
The problem is the ballpark, not the city. Safeco Field kills HRs, especially to Left.
If a player has a problem with the city, it’s probably the long flights since Seattle is isolated.
The ballpark is what’s wrong with Seattle
Robinson Cano is basically the only big FA that has signed for Seattle and they offered several more years and over $50 million more than the next highest bidder. Thats basically what they’d have to do to compete with other teams. They had tried in the past and FA don’t want to come to Seattle. Jerry came in and realized they need to build through trades and draft and he’s done a solid job with what he can do.
In the spirit of “selling high” and “better a year too early than too late,” I’d be willing to dangle Cal Raleigh (especially right before robo-umps take away framing as an art) for a real 3B and top prospects. Elevate Harrison Ford a year early, knowing that if he’s not ready, you still have Garver to fill in. (Having seen him play, I think Ford will be ready.) There’s no way Raleigh is signing an extension anyway, as evidenced by his appropriate remarks excoriating the front office. And his value will never be higher.
So much for my idea… the Padres are re-signing Elias Diaz. That takes the backup catcher spot away, so the Padres won’t have any interest in Mitch Garver.
Sorry, way too much talent given up for those 2. Even with garver and hanniger thrown in. There’s only a year left on both of those contracts so ride them out without giving up talent. Garver could bounce back, and hanniger is a serviceable back up. If you’re gonna give up that much talent you need more impactful bats. Yes one is a batting champ,but no power, despite great BA no great OBP, and cronenworth is a slight improvement over Garver assuming Garver bounces back.
No Arraez, thanks anyway. Unathletic one-trick pony. I don’t want him plugging up the base paths with Julio behind him.
They could just ask Brett Boone for some of that 50 hr juice and refuse to lose.
John Olerud and Nelson Cruz would disagree
They accept losing or they refuse to lose??
Trout hits great there too. Anyway, these are the exceptions that prove the rule. Safeco’s a killer. Great if you’re a pitcher though!
FA hitters don’t want to take short deals in Seattle. However, if the Mariners offered either Alonso or Bregman 6+ years they’d strongly consider it as it’s their last big chance for a big payday.
Mariners ownership is just cheap and somehow views the Cano contract as a mistake even though he was extremely productive and they traded out the worst part.
“Safeco Field (actually T-Mobile) kills HRs, especially to left.” Curious then that it has a Statcast park factor of 99 for homers by right-handed hitters compared to 92 for lefties. And at 96 overall HR are the easiest type of hit to get there, it’s everything else that’s the problem (particularly doubles and triples).
Nelson Cruz hit 84 of the 163 HR’s he had with the Mariners at T-Mobile Park, so it is certainly possible to hit HR’s there.
Every team that doesn’t spend should do that
The athletics have spent 3 times as much as we have in the past 2 seasons!
The Mariners current payroll is 2.5x what the Athletics payroll is, sheesh
The mariners payroll actually isn’t even 1.5X the Athletics payroll right now .. around 140M to 105M
I think you need to brush up on your maths.
Athletics $106M (for CBT purposes)
mariners $160M (for CBT purposes)
I want DarkSide’s comment tramp stamp’d on me.
Sign Yoan Moncada to a 1 year incentive laden contract to play 3b.
That is very likely but even moncada might be too expensive
If you signed Moncada, you’d be signing him for half a year; that’s all he can manage before getting hurt.
Sign Bregman and Pete Alonso and go win a World Series.
Stanton and Jerry will never set their sights, or budget that high.
Absolute disgrace.
#profitsoverpennants
Jerry and Justin absolutely want a higher budget. There isn’t a GM, nor a president of baseball operations, that wouldn’t want a higher budget to work with.
You can fault Jerry for a number of things, but nobody should think he’s comfortable and cool with a restrictive budget.
I would think an owner would trust his general manager with his money and if the general manager told him that he needed to go out and spend money to make the team a championship contender, that owner would trust him to do it. I read today that MLB made 12 billion dollars last year. That’s over 300 million dollars per team before tickets parking concessions and anything else. This ownership group is absolutely lying to us if they say they don’t have the money. The mariner fans are getting lied to over and over by the ownership so if you want to support a bunch of liars have at it…
Of course ownership has the money.
And they set the budget. The point is that the GM isn’t setting the budget, nor would he say or suggest they don’t need to spend more.
And that’s not a free pass for Jerry or Justin, either. It’s simply an understanding that they don’t have ideal working conditions.
I’m not putting this at the general manager’s feet. Im Putting this at ownerships feet. They have enough money to get whoever they want to get hell they could have afforded Juan Soto if he wanted to come here. It’s a pretty bad indictment on this organization that they can’t get anybody to come here. And it can’t just be the ballpark. Hell, Sasaki didn’t even want to meet with them. So what is really going on with this group….
This is absolutely on ownership.
At the end of the day, money talks.
This is just my opinion here but I personally think the Seattle fans and even Jerry Dipoto to an extent, have been lied to by the Owners w their 2019 rebuild.
In 2019 the Mariners (via Dipoto) said the Org will spend $$ on impact talent from Free Agency to complement the young core of Pitching and players like JRod and Cal Raleigh.
In 2019 Dipoto went into more detail on the FA spending when he made reference to the hitting talent in the near future FA windows of 2022 and 2023. If you were to look at those FA classes as we Mariners fans did in 2019 you would see names like Lindor, Seager, Semien (2021) Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, M Chapman etc
Keep in mind, just before that 2019 Rebuild began the team had spent FA $$ on Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano. So in 2019 it was not an utter fantasy (like it would be now in 2025) to think the team would add someone from that list of INFers to be in their lineup.
Fast forward to the INFers who were actually brought in from those FA windows to make an impact: 1B Tommy La Stella. The 2 biggest contracts given out to hitters were $7M to AJ Pollock $20M for 2 yrs of M Garver.
Over the last few yrs Seattle has burned through a barge full of INFers acquired via trade- Kolten Wong, Abraham Toro, Adam Frazier, Jorge Polanco, Ty France, Shed Long, Josh Rojas, Luis Urias and Ryan Bliss. Only one INF made a positive impact – Eugenio Suarez (on $15M yr) but he was traded away last year in a salary dump for a pair of red shoe laces and a palate of microwavable Organic White Rice.
This is why we are so angry at Ownership
Don’t confuse revenue with profit. Having $300MM revenue doesn’t guarantee profit. Ask Kmart, and Sears.
I read today that MLB made 12 billion dollars last year.
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I’m pretty sure that’s probably $12B in revenue.
Dipoto has done very well, considering the budget constraints that ownership has put on him. Ownership could spend more, and still make money, but they don’t want to. The only way the Mariner’s will ever contend for championships is with new ownership
Overrated and cost draft picks. Beating their offers would be a overpay and not best use of $.
Saying they have a combined 17 seasons worth of control left is the most throw away comment Ive seen in a long time, lol. You use this example when you have 4 guys with a combined 50 years of experience on a job.
It’s interesting that of all people, Trader Jerry has the most coveted trade capital and massive offensive holes lasting multiple offseasons, yet all quiet on the northwestern front.
Pitching is so plentiful I imagine the prices aren’t to his liking. Too much service time to buy. Good year for pitching free agents and trade.
While the Mariners pitchers are good, teams probably feel it’s like trading for Rockies hitters. They may be good, but will they be just as good in a different ballpark? The ballpark factor plays into why players they trade for fail to hit well. It stands to reason that it also plays into why pitchers do well there. At the very least, it can lead to a gap in consensus when discussing trade.
Teams would only pay for their legit numbers. Seattle should know this. Years of control are expensive. That’s main issue. Cheaper and or better options available.
Mariner starters were among the best on the road last year. They would pitch just as well elsewhere. And teams DO want them
But the trade capital is only good if you are able to replace that which you trade. Personally, I’d trade Castillo for hitting and put Hancock in the rotation.
But if Hancock fails, then you are probably worse off than when you started.
I would trade Castillo in a heartbeat. We have a great rotation without him. If your #5 starter, which would be Hancock, fails, you aren’t losing a lot
The biggest problem Seattle had last year was they took an up and coming team and tried to tweak way too much. Suarez, Teo, Wong, Caballero, Kelenic all moved on from. Hitting in Seattle takes time to get used to and they blew up half a lineup because of missing the playoffs by 1-game. Last year they struggled to find rhythm until the end of the year and this year they’re looking to run back that same core from the end of the year (Raley, Arozarena, Robles will all be starters in April this year). Then they are trying to plug the gap at 3B with a temporary solution knowing that Cole Young, Tyler Locklear, Harry Ford, Ben Williamson and Colt Emerson are all going to good chances to carve out roles the next year.
Trader Jerry went too far last year and is making a wise correction
Sign Ha Seong Kim and put him at third base even though he won’t likely be ready until May 2025. Roll the dice on prospects for second base, if second base doesn’t produce with Cole Young and Ryan Bliss, made a deadline trade.
Sign an INF coming off Shoulder Surgery to play 3B? HSK might not even be ready by June. I’m all for the M’s signing him but he HAS to be Plan B. What they should’ve done is never trade away Eugenio Suarez (in a blatant salary dump mind you!)
Hard to hang on and build around when owners handcuff you
Vientos. Lolololololololol. No chance.
I wouldn’t trade any of the 4 for Vientos. He hasn’t proved it long enough,
With that logic neither has Woo or Miller.
Vientos has a little over 0.5yr of positive production. Woo has more than 1 and Miller nearly 2yrs.
Woo had an ERA+ of 94 his rookie year that’s not positive production that’s worse then average. Bryce Miller was similar ERA+ of 91. Vientos had over 400 at bats last years that’s closer to 3/4 of a season worth, so by your standards they are similar.
You saying Woo was worse than average?
That’s good because Vientos isn’t an option for you.
Yeah you don’t trade a front line starting pitcher for a hitter with career OBP < .300 to come to Seattle. That OBP drops to .270 at TMobile.
You’re right but you’re also forgetting that works both ways. Look at the home and away splits on Woo, Kirby, Miller away from home they all turn into pretty average pitchers but at home they look like all stars. Every single one has almost a full run worse on the road, HR% spikes, strike % drops, WHIP spikes and ERA+ drops.
other than the 3 game stretch on the road at end of May and beginning of June, Miller was solid on road. The 7 runs he gave up to KC hurt his ERA.
I’m talking careers not just last year, 2023 was the same results.
Fair, but the year before he was a rookie that had only pitched in 14 games above A+ ball. Last year Miller was the best pitcher on the Mariners after all star break and had a 1.75 ERA on the road
The poll should of included signing one of Alonso or both and go for it !!
Mariners should let the league know they’ll trade Miller, and let all the buyers out bid each other. First team that offers 2 top 100 prospect position players wins.
But its too late in the office season at this point to really make that happen.
Next off season they’ll have to look at moving Gilbert or Kirby in a Dylan Cease type trade…cause it doesn’t seem they’ll be able to retain both after they hit free agency.
@O’sSayCan — Kirby isn’t a FA until ’29 and Gilbert ’28 — they can hold onto Gilbert another 2 seasons and still get a ton for him, just like Cease was traded with 2 years of control. Gilbert is 27 now and will be 31 y/o (if I’m doing my math correctly) when he reaches FA, so they may want to offer him an extension coming up. Even then, they have him affordably during his prime. That’s some of the most value in MLB.
Mariners have 7 top 100 position players already. Why trade a front line starter for 2 more top 100 prospects? That doesnt help there offense today
Exactly! We don’t need prospects, no matter how good they look; we need proven hitters
Miller has nasty home road splits.
He also has a 2024 First Half Second Half Split that is ridiculous. His new out pitch- the splitter was the force behind that stretch of starts. His 2nd Half 1.89 ERA and astonishing 0.84 WHIP is something to pay attention to. He was one of THE best Pitchers in all of MLB over that 2nd half.
as well as a 1.75 ERA on the road after July 1.
He was LIGHTS OUT down the stretch, his improvement from 2023-2024 was unreal. He legitimately looked like a Cy Young Candidate over that 2nd Half. Cant wait to see the new cutter he’s been working on
I’d have them trade Woo for Westburg+Kremer in a heartbeat. There’s no point in keeping the rotation together while you’re both signaling how cheap the ownership is and showing that you won’t support them with a better offense. You can’t win being this unbalanced.
Westburg? I wouldn’t count on that one.
Woo for Mayo and Kremer.
Woo isn’t that good.
Woo might be the best of the 5. He has the best chance of becoming an Ace with his repertoire.
Then why would the Mariners trade him?
Gilbert and Castillo. Thats who makes sense to trade. Gilbert doesn’t have the same home road splits most of the other Mariner starters have. And Castillo was good for the Reds in that ballpark.
Woo’s pitch mix is a fastball, a different fastball, another fastball, then finally… one more fastball. Just different orientations. Not sure he’s got the highest upside of the bunch unless he can improve secondaries. Also has to put the vague injuries behind him
Woo is that good, but has health concerns over 162 game season.
If Miller continues like he did in the second half last year, he’s not only the best pitcher on the M’s, but one of the best in all of baseball
Castillo is the guy to trade. He throws too many pitches, and often only goes 6 innings
Maybe Miller could get Mayo and Kremer but certainly not Woo
The Orioles aren’t trading Westburg.
The author was specifically writing about Westburg headlining a deal for Gilbert or Kirby. Neither miller nor woo would be a sufficient return for Westburg. No chance
Westburg has the same timeline of being effective as Miller and Woo. Not saying it’s perfect but it doesn’t seem that crazy
The home road splits for Seattle starters is very dramatic. Their park increases Ks and decreases HRs at a very high rate.
Just like position players perform poorly in Seattle, pitchers perform better than their skill level.
I would say maybe they shouldn’t have let Teoscar Hernandez leave for the Dodgers but everyone wants to sign up with daddy Ohtani for an easy ring.
Teo probably wouldn’t have re-signed, since he felt the batter’s box was crooked and he underperformed.
It was the batter’s eye he didn’t like.
Did he specify the batter’s eye, or did we interpret it to implicate the batter’s eye?
He said the batter’s eye sucks. Other players have had similar complaints since they removed the shrubbery that used to be there.
Teo said he had A hard time seeing the ball in Seattle. Doubt that he’d resign with them
Or maybe they don’t look so great pitching outside of Seattle
It’s getting late in the offseason to make big deals. They should have traded Castillo earlier and got a back end starter, possibly an infielder and salary relief. Why they didn’t make that deal i don’t know.
Seriously. You’ve got to imagine the orioles would have given up Mountcastle and Kremer for Castillo. That saves the mariners $15 million while helping the offense a bit and giving them a more than adequate fifth starter. Then they could have taken those savings with the supposed $10-15 mil they had available and gotten Alonso or bregman. Instead they sat tight and have probably missed their chance.
The Mariners don’t want Mountcastle. Perhaps a different player, but not him.
They should have traded Castillo earlier
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It was crazy, imho. And I said the same thing at the last trade deadline. Castillo costs $24M, and he is their #5 SP. Replace him with Hancock, or some other fringy #5, and use the $24M for hitting. That’s in the neighborhood of Bregman money.
FanGraphs currently ranks Seattle sixth in the American League in projected 2025 WAR overall, including sixth in the league in position player WAR and only seventh in pitching WAR.
The Mariners can ill afford to trade away pitching.
Because of the T-Mobile Park effect, casual fans tend to undervalue current Seattle hitters and overvalue current Seattle pitchers.
We would have to have hitters to undervalue. We still don’t have a 1B, 2B, or 3B…
Westburg should not be included in ANY trade. He is too vital to the team. They can send Dean-O and Mounty over for Castillo
That makes Seattle worse. They wont do it.
If it makes them worse it’s marginally so. And more importantly it would have created $15 mil in savings. Whoever they added with that $15 mil + Mountcastle + Kremer would have likely vastly outperformed Castillo. The mariners FO seems to be frozen in inaction by fear. They need to do something different bc right now they’re just watching opportunity pass them by.
Who would they spend the $15m on? No major hitter is coming to Seattle. You might have to pay some of these guys up to 50% more just to agree. Thats what it took for Cano.
Maybe not. But, to me, that’s about as good an offer they could get unless they are willing to depart with one of the youngins. For that you could put up Mayo, Kremer, and choose a MiL OF/IF of their choice like a Dylan Beavers or something near that.
Again, you havent answered the question of why would Seattle do it? Castillo isnt worth nothing. If he is worth so little in trade, thats why they chose to keep him.
I think you trade Castillo if the return is useful right now. I think you only trade one of the others if the offer is too good to pass up
They could go into the season with the current roster and still be favorites in the division.
No, they probably will be 3rd. But its a tight race at the top.
Don’t think Houston has done anything to improve the team (specifically for this year), and while I don’t think the Rangers will finish 10 under again, I don’t really see a major improvement there either.
The Rangers will get better just from their young players taking the next step in becoming star players.
You mean “if” they take the next step. They could also take a step back. Player development is often not a straight line.
3rd place with this roster Texas and Houston are better..
Rangers are going to run away with the division this year.
We’re all wrong. Sacramento takes it.
They’re not the favorites in their division though. The sports books have Houston as a very large favorite with Texas and Seattle having nearly identical odds (+250 or 260 depending where you look).
Rotinick – Comedy, surely ?
The real dilemma is that this team really hasn’t done much of ANYTHING this winter. Pretty clear message to the fan base they aren’t serious about winning…
A free agent bat should be had. The owners need to step up.
There’s no hurry to trade any of the Seattle starters. There are concerns about Castillo declining, if he has a good 1st half he’ll be more valuable at the deadline than he is now. The young starters will be worth more (barring injury) next offseason than they are now, too. Of course it’s worth listening to blow-away offers, but the Mariners can do both: build on this core of pitching, and maximize trade value when the time comes.
The big question is when Seattle will kick off a rebuild and how. That will dictate who gets moved and when, and it’s not just the starting pitchers. That goes for Cal, Muñoz, and the corner outfielders as well.
Another f’ing rebuild??? WTF????
They have Raleigh, Gilbert, and Robles under control for three more years, including 2025. Crawford and Arozarena only have two more years of control.
What do you think the odds are of them extending all of them, or any of them?
If the budget is so restrictive, how are they going to afford to keep these players and contend? At some point they’ll have to sell high. If not, they’ll have to let players walk and hope for a draft pick.
Yes, they’re most likely going to kick off another rebuild. They have no clear long-term answers for catcher, first, second, third, and at least one outfield position. This is assuming one of the infield prospects can handle short and Montes can handle right field.
They can’t assume they’ll hit on all their prospects.
I mean, honestly, is there any hope for this team to ever get to the world series with this mindset? I’m not seeing it… You have to keep Cal some way somehow even if you have to overpay. And out of all the pitchers I would keep Kirby and Miller long term if possible but we can’t just tear it down to the studs again
You could look at Tampa and say ‘yes’, Seattle could replicate what they’re doing and eventually get there.
But I’m not convinced Seattle can develop hitters, so I have doubts about a rebuild being successful.
They got so close in 2022. Instead of splurging on just a couple of bats and a role player or two, they half-assed as golden opportunity.
I guess I’m trying to say I have no confidence in the organization finding a successful path to success. Not with these unnecessary budget restrictions.
I know every team can’t be a winner every eyar in sports. But sports is supposed to be fun and the Mariners are probably one of the most maddening franchises out there. So as fans it makes you thank what are we supposed to do to find a team that will make us happy and to watch a sport we love. It might not ever be Seattle…
None of these guys need extensions.. especially not on a mid market budget
Arozerena can go after 2 yrs. He might not make past the trade deadline
Gilbert can get traded with 1 year left
Cal you let his time run out and gain a draft pick
Robles/ Crawford we Will be happy to shed their salary in a couple years
“So close in 2022” ??
Mariners were swept 3-0 in the ALDS. Even if they had won, they would have been destroyed by the Yankees in the ALCS.
Yeah, they were close. They blew past Toronto and played Houston strong, which you already knew.
The fact that they did nothing in the offseason should have been a crime.
Then why continue to be a Mariners fan? If you’re that frustrated, go find a team that doesn’t disappoint you.
Trade Woo or Miller for Mayo like i have been saying for 2 months! It’s a great start to improving your offense long term and then go out and sign Turner to platoon at first then when the Mitches come off the books next year you have more money for a real bat(s)
There’s no way the orioles would trade Mayo for woo…but it’s certainly possible they would for miller.
Trader Jerry should go get Arraez and whatever else he can get from the Friars Fire Sale for cheap.
“we’re a draft, trade, and develop team… also we don’t want to trade anyone.”
If the Mariners are going to operate with this type of payroll, they should embrace trading players a year early for maximum return and playing young guys. Treading water will only lose you guys like Gilbert, Kirby, Raleigh for nothing when club control runs out. Not saying they should operate this way, but their current strategy seems stuck in between, which is a bad place to be.
Abreu from the Red Sox should have been a no-brainer. you have to give to get.
It’s a trade begging to happen. The problem is that he is worth a good bit more than Castillo, but less than any of the core four.
The Mariners, like I’ve said before, have a big class of young, super talented players on their way up, and need to hold onto their rotation and wait for these young guys to make it up here. Then they’ll be a pretty solid team. No amount of offensive talent brought in from the outside will truly help this team. There was just an article posted on MLB.com the other day that said TMobile park is the opposite of Coors field-great for right handed pitchers, horrible for hitters. Guys brought up in our system will fare better with our internal staff that we currently have, than outside players will. We MUST keep our pitching in tact. This has been a great offseason for the Mariners because Jerry Dipoto hasn’t been irresponsible with trades as he has in the past. Trading our pitching now will be a panic move, and there’s no reason to panic or be desperate. I’m trying to get a girlfriend and get married and have children. I can panic and lose what I have that is good by giving it up for the wrong woman who wont work out and cause a lot of suffering for me, or I can wait for my prospects to form into what they’re meant to be and between them, find and get married to the right woman. Women don’t like desperate men, just like the baseball gods don’t like desperate teams. Trust me. And also, Ron Karate, did you read the article that said Arraez is literally the worst player above a .300 average? He has like a 1 WAR, he’s horrible, trash. I wouldn’t trade my worst pitcher for him.
WAR sadly does not value the scarcest commodity in baseball today: Batting average.
What makes you think Seattle can develop hitters? They have two recent success stories (one being a generational talent) and a whole lot of misses. Most people don’t realize that most of the drafted hitters never even made it to MLB.
They absolutely can’t bank on filling 7-8 holes internally, nor can they wait 3-4+ years.
Here’s a list of Seattle’s position players drafted in the top 5 rounds from 2016-2022.
Kyle Lewis
Joe Rizzo
Bryson Brigman
Donnie Walton
Evan White
David Banuelos
Josh Stowers
Cal Raleigh
Austin Shenton
Zach DeLoach
Kaden Polcovich
Tyler Keenan
Harry Ford
Edwin Arroyo
Andy Thomas
Cole Young
Tyler Locklear
We saw a prep-heavy 2023 draft, with Colt Emerson, Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete, Ben Williamson, Aidan Smith, and Brock Rodden taken in the first five rounds, plus Josh Caron in 2024. Only two of them, Emerson and Farmelo, look like potential regulars They’re a good three years out and who knows how long any of these players will need to settle in–if they can settle in.
This may sound pessimistic, but the reality is that Seattle hasn’t shown they know how to draft hitters, let alone develop them. Single A and high A stats mean little and it’s worth noting Seattle’s once top prospect, Harry Ford, is trending down after a mediocre at best 2024 in AA.
I personally like Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo, but neither are close to MLB and Seattle needs help immediately.
Pitching has become so dominant in the majors. Having a great pitching staff yes is valuable but not quite as valuable as having a good lineup at the end of the day. You have to try to find something that will override a strength of another team. And like you said, most of these hitting prospects have not panned out. So you’re going to have to trade some of these guys that are maybes for solid proven MLB bat(s) You can’t win every game 1-0
Trade M Haniger to the Tigers. The Tigers just want Lazaro for taking on the whole thing. Aside from hiring the Superfife, the Tigers need a right handed bat. Seatle needs salary relief and gets a little something, something in return.
Ibanez
Why would Seattle gift the Tigers Laz? Haniger is gone after ’25 and who would they spend his salary space on?
$18 Million United States of America dollars.
Again, to do what with? Alonso and Bregman are not going to Seattle. Whose left to give that much money to?
? $18 MILLION UNITED STATES AMERICAN DOLLARS ?
What do you not understand?
Most bosses are pleased when you save them ~$16 million American dollars…..(Lazaro cost $2.5M)
Some don’t, I suppose. But I’ve never met them.
Before the Giants signed Verlander, I thought trading Castillo to them for a pile of spare parts could fill all the M’s roster holes. Eligible spare parts might include Wade, whose low SO and high OBP are what the M’s say they want; Casey Schmitt, with outstanding 3B defense and improving bat, Doval, Luciano, Villar a bunch of decent young starters like Roupp, Beck, Winn, Wisenhut, etc. for the M’s pitching devs to work on. Not sure the Giants have the same need now, but could afford to move a more established arm. Giants don’t seem to know what to do with many of the above anyway..
Dipoto/Stanton era for the Mariners has been the most frustrating & embarrassing M’s era is my lifetime. From Stanton’s deceitful statements to the media and fans, to Dipotos’s decade long failure, has severely fractured the love I once had for the Mariners franchise. M’s have never had a more open window for success than they have since 2022, and they have squandered it at every turn. Dipoto, limited financially or not, has neglected to improve the team by even 1-game offseason after offseason. That is defined as a failure, no matter how you look at it. The M’s farm is stocked, so PICK A LANE. If you won’t or can’t spend now to a moderate payroll which would still be #4th in the AL West, than pick a lane and trade the starters for a haul of highly touted prospects who can be called up in 2026 with the M’s other highly regarded prospects & aim for future success. Doing so though would not allow Stanton to make as much profit as he would like as less fans would attend the games. So keeping the team around .500 ensures ticket sales and a mediocre club where Stanton & the ownership group, who values the Mariners as just another investment in their portfolio, can continue to make profits season after season. If Dipoto can’t or won’t upgrade the offense, than upgrade the relief pitching so the great starting staff won’t have to see their leads be destroyed by another bottom of the barrel bullpen with waiver claim pickups everywhere. We know Dipoto refuses to spend on relief pitching, either by arrogance or jealousy as he was a failed RP himself, so he chooses to spend $30MM on two players who aren’t even regular everyday starters. For a team with $$ issues, maybe be better with the $$ you do have. Embarrassing, and I’ve had enough, personally. Fans need to speak up & voice their displeasure and their feelings about being lied to by Stanton who has said over and over he will do everything he can do bring a championship to Seattle, LIAR! It’s PROFITS OVER PENNIES IN SEATTLE. If I were a Mariners current player, I would be counting down the days to free agency so I could get the F away! I don’t blame them one bit. The Stanton/Dipoto era since 2016 have tarnished Seattles legacy & the irrefutable harm done will forever go down in M’s history as one of the worst tandems in franchise history. Not even including the blatant deceitfulness and racism allegations which were quickly paid to quiet them and not get them too much publicity. Sad, immoral, appalling, disgusting, incompetent morons!
Fans call and email Dipoto, Stanton, and the M’s as it’s time to put pressure on them, maybe it’ll help maybe it won’t. But God willing, Stanton will put the team up for sale ASAP!
“Dipoto/Stanton era for the Mariners has been the most frustrating & embarrassing M’s era is my lifetime. ”
My Brother, have you recently revisited the draft picks of the Jack Z era?
Oh, no. The recent history before JD is so much worse. Jerry is one of the greatest, if not the greatest GM Seattle has ever had. This ownership group….just like all the rest of them. In fact, I’m starting to miss the Nintendo ownership. They never wanted to make money on the team. While they would NEVER extend a penny beyond the budget, they also didn’t hold it back to make cash off of it.
Don’t call the Mariners. Call their sponsors.
Keep the pitching and spend on Bregman and/or Alonso.
i think they should keep it together and push hard now. having 4 international pitchers for dirt cheap pitch like #1-3 starters is is why the astros had such a long and successful window just as much as the altuves and alvarezes (though him being cheap has been an incredible boon) and bregmans and tuckers (though he’s been criminally underrated and cheap until the last couple years).
ok so there’s several reasons, but the cheap elite rotation was a major factor and with julio as a reasonably priced jumping off they should’ve (still should) gone big and try to win one here. the AL’s available for the taking right now
As a Mariners fan, this poll is the most exciting Ms related news I’ve seen this offseason.
You obviously haven’t been following the Tyler Jay saga.
Mariners are cheap either way. This is one of the best young rotations in baseball yet each year they surround them with garbage players. Soon they will be free agents and move on to teams that want to win. I’ve been an Ms fan for 40 years, but ownership is all about making money with giveaways and fireworks. Sell the team please!
Total dis to Raley- only looking at his splits vs lefties-yep he’s a platooner. YET: looking at his #s as home, his slg at home, his #s in Aug and sept- he’s a guy you want in the line up. Let’s give Raley some love and not this “platoon…” dribble
AND this “players cant hit in T-Mobile… WELL, Raley can
Mariners rotation is not elite, their home ballpark makes them much better than they actually are.
Maybe…. Like with Rockies hitters, Mariners pitchers are much better than their road splits.
Damn Ryan. You got one right. Thanks for the compliment in cutting and pasting my comment. I appreciate it.
Damn Ryan. You got one right. Thanks for the compliment in cutting and pasting my comment. I appreciate it.
Damn Ryan. You got one right. Thanks for the compliment in cutting and pasting my comment. I appreciate it.
I’d keep the Starting Five. Safeco makes the offense worse and the pitchers better. Each side was around 10th best in MLB on the road.
While they have some offensive holes, they have prospects to trade. If teams are reluctant to trade for prospects now, the M’s can be aggressive in season when some teams begin to give up.
But they need to have a good 1st Half!
Unfortunately, with so many teams making the playoffs, VERY few teams are sellers, even at the deadline. This is no longer a good strategy.
There are some, and the Mariners have a lot of prospects.
A Baltimore outlet was touring a Castillo-for-Mayo trade. Didn’t seem enough for the M’s: another untested prospect infielder that might break out. I know they don’t want to “Dustin Ackley” any of their kids (Emerson or Young especially), but this infield looks weak. As far as trading from the current rotation, I think you don’t do that unless you’re also fixing the batter’s eye, reorienting the field to avoid sun glare, and moving the fences OUT to increase doubles. In other words, make the place more attractive to hitters, even at the expense of the remaining pitchers. Watch what happens to former M’s pitchers once they pitch all their games in even an average ballpark.
Castillo for Mayo is an overpay for Baltimore trust me Mayo is going to be a stud
Trust me, so are Dustin Ackley, Evan White, and Kyle Lewis.
Well see…
Scott Kingery (paid $24 million?)
Jarred Kelenic (passed up $24 million?)
Does Seattle have money issues??? As a Twins fan I know there isn’t much in the way of local revenue, the cheap ass Pohlads are finally selling but not in enough time to help 2025 and most fans like myself will stay way until they do. The Mariners should be going after Alonso and Bregman all it costs is money add those two to the line up of J-Rod, Big Dumper, Arozerena, Robles would improve them more than most teams.
Starting pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball. Lean into this strength; focus on pitching, speed and defense. Julio and Randy A will have better years and the division isn’t exactly full of world-beaters. Stay the course.
Hope is not a plan.
They didn’t plan to fail, they failed to plan.
Second reply!
Desperation is not a sales strategy.
“Starting Pitching is the most valuable commodity in Baseball.”
I honestly think there is just about enough data accrued now to make the argument that good MLB hitters who can reach base, have above average chase rates and create Runs at a 130 wRC+ or higher is the most valuable commodity! Just look at what Juan Soto got in FA this yr. He doesn’t even play good defense!
Pitching is so utterly dominant right now, BP’s have made the Complete Game stat almost disappear entirely. The ML median avg OPS last yr was 0.717!! The median BA is now .243
Good Hitters are more valuable than ever imho
Yamamoto got $325 million before throwing a pitch.
If you think they have a load of elite talent in the minors now, just wait until next year. Everyone from the young pitchers to the prospects are going to be worth more in a year. The MItches will be off the payroll. This may not be popular but they are wise not to give away what payroll space they do have for the nest five years to an aging star from another organization. Bregman or Alonzo are not going to get you into the world series. We need much more than that. The M’s will never be able to compete with the bankroll of the Mets, Yankees or Dodgers. They have to allow their kids to develop. Have some patience.
Some players will be exposed and just be Dustin Ackleys. You can’t assume that player development is a straight line that just keeps going up. Some will be injured, some will hit a ceiling, some are Jesus Montero. You can’t just hoard prospects and wait for 26 of them to come up together and beat the Dodgers. Cashing in some of those “lottery tickets” for known performers is how championship teams are built.
Looking at our list of minor leaguers, we ought to have 12 -15 guys in the top 100 next year. Rather than them being at the A+ level. Many will advance to AA or AAA.
Sure. Some will wash out. Knowing which ones are which is what makes good or bad franchises! Trading some that have hit their ceiling before they are exposed is how the Yankees send us Jesus Montero. That is my point. No team has 12-15 all stars in their AA and AAA teams.
Stop with the prospect talk. It’s that way every year and look what it has gotten this team over the last 50 years…Never a world series!!! Jesus
The Mariners have the opposite problem that hitters have after playing at Coors.
T-Mobile Park was the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball in 2024. Their pitchers are only mediocre on the road. Teams don’t trust that they can be as good elsewhere as they are playing in T-Mobile park so the Mariners are not getting the offers they thought they might.
I also think that Tristan Casas is overrated, and Boston keeps offering him up like he is Clint Frazier.
I don’t think Boston has ever offered him. I read something like that. It’s pure media conjecture if you ask Boston’s PBO
Except Bryce Miller had a 1.74 ERA on the road from July 1 onwards. His 2nd Half was ridiculous.
I also think the Road splits are deceiving for Logan Gilbert. He had a couple bad Road starts where he got yanked early in the game. Those 2-3 starts completely bollocksed his away splits. I remember watching his worst start in BOS where he gave up 7 ER in 2.2 ip. Even in that one he was a victim of atrocious balls/strikes calling imo and bad defense. Twice he should’ve been out of the inning unscathed after throwing strikes on 3/2 counts with 2 outs. I don’t think theres a single MLB FO out there that wouldn’t want any of those young studs.
There is no dilemma. Spend money on position players.
I think Seattle may want to think twice about trading with Baltimore.
It must still hurt to have traded Adam Jones and Chris Tillman, among 5 total bodies, for Erik Bedard. Jones alone created something like 30 WAR for the Orioles, Tillman 5-10, and Bedard got hurt and did little for the Mariners.
I think it is time to trade some pitching for offense. It’s pretty clear for a variety of reasons that the M’s would be hard pressed to sign a meaningful free agent. Trade seems like the only way for that impact they need. They’ll have to trade some of them eventually anyway…
Your choices should be the same for all teams on all trades…
Deal Castillo to the Cubs
For who?
Not sure. But that’s the move the Cubs need to make at this point. There’s some players on Chicago’s end. I really don’t often make suggestions on here. Probably a Nico Hoerner.
Mariners have to get rid of Castillo salary. Budget is going to get tighter and tighter the next 3 years leaving little room to improve.
He’ll also be harder to move later the older he gets
His 3rd year of the contract there might be a strike anyways prolonging his time with the the club