When the Tigers took Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick in 2020, Baseball America described him as “the safest pick at the top of the draft” and a potential “middle-of-the-order force,” à la Pete Alonso. And keep in mind, they weren’t talking about present-day Alonso, who is struggling to find a market in free agency, but rather a younger version who had just set the MLB rookie record with 53 home runs in his debut campaign.
Torkelson tore up the minor leagues in 2021, rising from High-A to Triple-A and mashing at every level. Ahead of his rookie season in 2022, he was a consensus top-10 prospect in the game. Most sources, including Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and The Athletic’s Keith Law placed him in the top five. The only players who ranked ahead of him on every one of those lists were Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Suffice it to say, the future was bright for the young first baseman.
Yet, the bright lights of the big leagues proved too much for a 22-year-old Torkelson. He didn’t just fail to reach his sky-high ceiling. Rather, his supposedly sturdy floor completely collapsed. In 110 games, the righty batter barely managed a .200 average and a .600 OPS. He hit just eight home runs, and his .117 isolated power was well below average, especially for a first baseman. While his expected stats were slightly more promising, a 34th-percentile xwOBA could hardly assuage the very real concerns about his lifeless bat. What’s more, a mid-season demotion back to Triple-A did little to help. He was surprisingly ineffective in the minors, too, posting a .738 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 35 games.
Torkelson got off to a similarly poor start in 2023, but he turned things around late in the year. Through the end of July, he had a .707 OPS and 94 wRC+, with 15 home runs in 104 games. Those were better numbers than he posted in 2022 but still disappointing for an MLB first baseman and well below expectations. Then, from August 1 through the end of the season, Torkelson finally seemed to tap into his full potential. He crushed 11 doubles and 16 home runs in 55 games, good for a .282 ISO. His .855 OPS and 133 wRC+ were similarly impressive, and his .364 xwOBA was right in line with his .362 wOBA. The sample size was small, but considering everything Torkelson had done in college and the minors to become a top-10 prospect, it was hard not to think the powerful slugger was finally becoming everything the Tigers hoped he could be.
Then came 2024. Over the first two months of this past season, Torkelson looked like his rookie self again, slashing .201/.266/.330 with a 71 wRC+. That led to another minor league demotion, and things didn’t look much better at Triple-A. The man who terrorized minor league pitchers in 2021 was nowhere to be seen, and he put up a .799 OPS and 108 wRC+ in 58 games. Torkelson looked better upon his return to the Tigers in August, but his late-season performance wasn’t as convincing as it was in 2023. His 125 wRC+ was powered by a high BABIP and a wOBA more than 20 points above his xwOBA. While his 11.3% walk rate was a promising sign, his 32.5% strikeout rate suggested he was still often overmatched against big league pitching. That certainly seemed to be the case in the playoffs, when he went just 4-for-21 with an 82 wRC+ in seven postseason games.
Three seasons into his major league career, Torkelson’s top prospect shine has worn off. In close to 1,500 plate appearances, he has failed to establish himself as an above-average hitter, let alone an everyday first baseman. The Tigers could afford to let him play through his issues during their rebuild, but now that they have eyes on contention, it will be harder to justify giving regular reps to such a mediocre bat. To that point, they seem to have already replaced him on the roster. After signing Gleyber Torres to play second base, Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that Colt Keith will be the team’s primary first baseman in 2025. With Keith at first base and Kerry Carpenter at DH, it’s hard to see how Torkelson fits in. Torkelson was once a more promising prospect than either of them, but Carpenter has mashed at the major league level (career 136 wRC+), and the Tigers showed their faith in Keith with a six-year, $28.6425MM extension before he’d even made his MLB debut. Without a guaranteed contract or much big league success, Torkelson is on the outside looking in.
If Torkelson plays well this spring, the Tigers could still find a way to get him in the lineup. To that point, Harris says he told Torkelson, “If you have a big offseason and a big spring training, there’s a role for you on this team.” At the very least, the righty batter could be the short side of a platoon with the lefty-batting Carpenter. Last year, manager A.J. Hinch tried to shield Carpenter from southpaws, against whom he has a career 69 wRC+. Meanwhile, Torkelson has a 111 wRC+ in 357 career PA against opposite-handed pitching. Keith is a left-handed hitter, too, so Torkelson could also spell him at first base with a tough lefty on the bump. If top prospect Jace Jung struggles (and the Tigers don’t add another third baseman in free agency), the team could be forced to move either Keith or Torres over to third, freeing up playing time for Torkelson at first base. Finally, Detroit could also consider giving Carpenter more run in the outfield if Torkelson is hitting well enough to deserve the reps at DH.
Of course, that all relies on Torkelson doing enough to convince the Tigers to give him another serious chance. An alternative route, and perhaps the best possible outcome for everyone involved, would be trading Torkelson to a team that can offer him a more regular role. Not only might a change of scenery do him some good, but consistent playing time at a consistent position can only help as he tries to figure things out at the plate. One can understand why Detroit might be hesitant to sell low on a former first-overall pick. On the other hand, it will be hard for him to increase his trade value when he isn’t playing every day. If the Tigers trade him now, at least they could guarantee some sort of return. A true rebuilding club like the Marlins could offer Torkelson the most playing time, but other teams that could be looking for an inexpensive right-handed first base/DH bat include the Mariners, Padres, Pirates, and Twins. Torkelson still has an option, so sending him back down to Triple-A Toledo is another possibility.
So, where do MLBTR readers think Spencer Torkelson will be come Opening Day? Share your thoughts by voting in the poll below!
Depends largely on if they end up with Bregman or Alonso. Obviously he stays if it’s Bregman but i do think the leash is short and this is a make or break season for Torkelson
I def do not think so. It would be ridiculous to give up or sell low on tork. Many elite talents never pan out in bigs but there is reason they are drafted so high and many of these guys go on to have excellent careers after very slow starts. Like the 1st baseman from the Yankees, he was a faltering top prospect for years before he finally put it together in Chicago.
Keep him until the very end. Go hire him new hitting coaches and psychiatrists
Tork might find a spot with The Monkees.
When I heard this guy’s name, it was the first thing I checked. Considering how many Torkelsons there are. I know Pete’s son kept the whole name…
If the tigers already had a first baseman then he would be traded
Unless a lefty starter is on the mound tork will probably platoon with Keith on opening day
I would take tork on the mariners though
Andy Ibabez backs up at 1B and they were going to get Malloy some time with a 1B glove too. Barring a massive turnaround in the spring or an injury he is likely ticketed for AAA or a trade. I think he needs a change of scenery unfortunately.
Mariners….
Reds. M’s a great fit too ! They need him
Bustalson.
Please. It’s Torkelbust.
Torkelsingle.
I recently mentioned Turner as an inexpensive move for Boston. Perhaps Detroit too where Tork can learn from the bench. Turner can’t play everyday and is more of a DH now but he could provide leadership.
Rob Deer 2.0
Rizzo 2.0
That’s a decades old throw back right there.
Tork is cooked, people who think he still has a chance at success are delusional weirdo fanboys who don’t understand basic baseball. At best, Tork is a platoon player against LHP, him and Keith at 1B if they don’t sign anyone else.
So aggressive.
Why do u feel that way ? History favors him. Also Keith seems legit ! He had success at every minor league level and put it together at end of season. He’s gonna be alright
Tork and Mize are both perfect change of scenery guys. Their potential is still sky high. I wish Arenado would waive his NTC and let the Cards swap him for one of these guys. Everyone loses if these organizations don’t do something to move these guys to places where they can play peak baseball.
There is no such thing as “the safest pick”
For every paul skenes there’s brien taylor
For every adley rustchman there’s henry davis
For every gerit cole & bryce harper there’s mark appel & brady aiken. And many more examples. Tarik skubal just won a cy young & he was a 9th round pick (254 players were selected ahead of him). The point is nobody knows a dam thing
Insert “Price Is Right ” loser horn!
“damn”
Davis was a stupid pick ! He didn’t even have a position
I 100% agree with you thou ! Who has a deeper prospect history than BA yet their assessment was terrible on the top guy smh. Then they have the audacity to call themselves experts. Rotf
The Mickey Moniak Fan Club is an ardent follower of this Torkelson fella..
Well in RL, being a Phillies fan since birth, I do tend to follow these type of guys. Guess I’ll go with the safe “he’s a change of scenery guy?”
And grab some popcorn?
Just strange in today’s world of waaay toooo much information things can still go wicked sideways?
One of the special features with Moniak is that he never really experienced any minor league success either – at least that which comes anywhere near his lofty draft status. He only got promoted due to the fact that he was a #1 overall pick, and what else were they going to do?
Nice kid for sure, but just an awful pick even at the time.
You’re right. Moniak and Royce Lewis can play, but hardly at the level their draft position suggested.
Royce Lewis can definitely hit, his awful slump to end the year notwithstanding. (And as a Guardians fan, it couldn’t have come at a better time.)
His issues aren’t talent related. His issues stem from the fact that he’s made of glass and held together with baling wire.
Tork as a Met would be nice to see.
Baty for Torkelson. Keep Vientos at 3rd base. Sign Rizzo as mentor and platoon partner. Trade away paid down Marte. DH Torkelson at times.
Love that change of scenery trade!
@EnriqueRomo I’ve been saying this all offseason. If the Mets can’t get Arenado I’d be happy with giving Torkelson a shot. He can bridge the gap to Guerrero Jr
Baty for Tork. Tork has higher ceiling, Baty has higher floor.
If Tork recovers his promise, keep Vientos at 3B.
Enrique Romo was my favorite player as a kid! Seattle mariners closer!
From what I saw last year, he has completely forgotten what to swing at and what to let go by. So many foul balls hit from out of the zone and so many takes in. I’m curious if hypnosis or something to that effect would help cause it’s all mental with Tork. He also needs to stop trying to hit every pitch 500 feet. I hope he figures it out somehow while still a Tiger.
Tork to the Cards as part of a deal for Arenado? Hmmm…
The Cards already have a pricy, unmovable, RH-hitting first baseman. I also doubt Arenado would approve a trade to Detroit.
Tork needs a change of scenery as AJ has messed him up bad. He’s apparently been working his a$$ off in AZ this offseason which will give the Tigers the ability to showcase him in Spring Training where a trade for a SP will likely be made. Otherwise, he starts the season w/ the Mudhens where he’ll rake AAA pitching and is off loaded by Memorial Day. It’s a move they’ll end up regretting, but a move they’ll need to make
Arizona you say! Well perhaps Tork and Monty can form the framework of a deal. Monty is a prime rebound candidate and if he fies get fill the #2 spot in the rotation nicely.
Sweet, Tork to MN for Paddack, the Sherriff,
AJ had nothing to do with it. Nice try, Senor Smoke.
AJ didn’t mess him up. He was rushed and wasn’t ready when he made the team out of spring training in 2022. Prior to that, he played at 3 minor league levels in 2021 and only hit .238 at AAA Toledo.
rangers
I’ve been reaching out to Torkelson since 2023 about throwing the Roger Beshens football slider. All I want for him is success, and yet 2 years later look where we are. Sometimes you simply need to open your eyes to new possibilities. I wish him the best
And I have told him that if he takes up the Mookie Betts backward spin bowling technique it will almost certainly help his hitting results. That would turn him into Torquelson which is the hitting equivalent of the Rumple Burger Slider so enjoyed by platoon players around the country.
And other nonsense.
Perhaps a road trip to Arizona to show him this wonderful product is in dire need of happening choof. Or if someone knows how to make a voodoo doll I’d be good with that too.
Arizona is exactly where Torkelson and I met regarding this. We also discussed the Mookie Betts bowling technique and the burger sugar slider or whatever the heck is happening and he just utterly refuses. I’ve told him that the ability to succeed is in his hands and he is so stubborn. I think he’s still bitter about losing that lawn darts match with me in high school
Meat darts are cooler.
Your mother enjoyed my meat dart last night
Ummhh she’s dead so that’s gross.
Who says I’m not dead too buddy don’t assume things
Since he’s cheap and has an option remaining, I think Detroit is best off using him as a platoon option at DH/1B and see if he can boost his value. If he struggles in that role, send him to AAA and re-evaluate this question.
I bet Spencer will be for hire.
LMFAO!
I can’t see them trading him right now for nothing, and they’ve got too much invested into him to just give up on him. I think it’s obvious what they intend to do with him. He starts the season in Toledo, hopefully he hits well and rebuilds his value. Torres is easily tradable at the deadline, Keith could easily shift back to 2B to make room for Tork if it appears he’s ready. If not, he spends the season in Toledo and they reassess next winter and his service time isn’t affected.
Harris certainly has put himself of on the spot. He signed Keith to a long term contract, but then change his position twice. When has that ever worked out? Then he signed a 2B when he already had Keith, Ibanez, McKinstry, Lee, Jung all available for the position. The Tigers biggest need is a RH power bat, and the closest thing to that is Torkelson, but now there is no place in the lineup for him. Signing Torres was not a well thought out move.
Torres is a right handed power bat capable of 20+ HRs and who hits well at Comerica. Half the 2B options you listed are minor leaguers who a one year deal doesn’t effect. Why would you even list McKinistry and Ibahez who are backups?
They are still very much in the running for Bregman, another RH hitter and there’s a month to go.
Tork did NOT play well last year. He has to prove himself if he wants at bats. He could get some between DH and 1B but only IF he proves himself.
You complain every time they cut or bench a .200 hitter or underperformer and you are just Harris hating as usual. If they cut Baez you’d probably complain about that.
Jays should trade their surplus AAAA infielders for ST. Torkelson’s prospect pedigree will buy him some runway for other organizations who think they can fix him.
Padres need a 1B.DH type.
Tork is from California (Petaluma).
And Tork played college ball @ Arizona State a few hours drive from San Diego.
Get him comfortable, coach him up, take the pressure off him and maybe he “breaks out” or at least hits enough to earn his keep with the Padres.
The Padres have some players that the Tigers might be interested in especially down on the farm.
The problem with Torkelson is he thinks he doesn’t need coaching. The Tigers tried getting him to adjust his swing and Tork believes he’s been successful with his swing and it’s just a matter of time. If you watch him, he can’t hit a fastball. He swings at junk. He strikes out and he doesn’t seem phased at all. Just another day at the office.
Maybe he will open his eyes and he worked over the winter, but I doubt it.
Tork has a problem with squaring up breaking pitches. The last 2 seasons he struck out on breaking balls more times than on FB even though he has faced 18% fewer breaking balls than FB, he has a 30+% whiff rate on them, and an average EV that is 6-7 mph lower.
An interview with Hinch last year, without mentioning Torkelson, told me everything I needed to know. A guy who checks his swing all the time is easy to get out. Hinch was talking about his experience as a catcher and how he views hitters.
Nobody checks his swing in the Tiger lineup more than Torkelson.
It would figure that Tork led Tigers in checked swings. That’s a great sign of indecisiveness, Tork’s usual mindset. So many people have been inside his head trying to fix him, his brain has become frazzled. I tend to think only a change-of-scenery back to his stomping grounds in AZ or SoCal will get him back to his college form..
If it’s true he’s resisted changing his approach, I wouldn’t blame Tigers brass for being fed up.
I think your take is spot on. This same issue came up the last two off seasons.. I believe that is why Harris said if he has a big Off-season AND Spring Training – whoever says that about evaluating a player?. My best guess is that Harris would only say that because once again Tork is doing it his way and not what his coaches want him to do.
Trade him to the Rays so we can actually see him fulfill his potential
If he went to the Rays he’d become a superstar.
Looks like a Mariner to me.
Throw him a fourseam or a slider, and you’ll strike him out. And EVERYBODY throws a fourseam and a slider.
For the Tigers, he’s this year’s Keston Hiura. Toldeo depth. If he rakes, bring him up, showcase him and he either makes it or he leaves at the trade deadline.
Torres is a one year deal so we should probably not make any conclusions based on that
The Tigers don’t seem to cut bait with mistakes, Casey Mize is still on the team, Javier Baez is still on the team, so I think they’ll keep Torkelson as long as they have control left.
speaking of top tigers prospects
what do ya’ll think is in store for Jace Jung in 2025?
They should have hired the Superfife.
There are lots of other thing the Tigers should be doing.
He’ll be given a chance this year, why not ? If he can be a platoon .300 hinter he’ll have great value. Full time might not be in his cards, but he should be given a platoon chance in the regular season at least.
Yes, he had that big first round bonus money, so why not play him at the low cost with a new style. If he don;t find a niche it’ll be hard to trade him anyways. The team has Baez, and they are stuck with him so why not give Tork a chance to platoon ?