Pirates To Sign Caleb Ferguson

The Pirates and left-hander Caleb Ferguson have agreed to a one-year deal, pending a physical, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Excel Sports Management client will be guaranteed $3MM, per Alex Stumpf of MLB.com. The Bucs have open roster spots and won’t need to make a corresponding move.

Ferguson, 28, has been a solid southpaw reliever in the big leagues for a few years now. He missed the 2021 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery but put up good numbers in the three seasons before that, followed by the three seasons after the procedure. Overall, he has logged 261 2/3 innings, allowing 3.68 earned runs per nine. His 9.4% walk rate is a bit higher than average but barely so, while his 27.5% strikeout rate is a few ticks better than par and his 45.6% ground ball rate above average as well.

His ERA ticked up a bit in 2024, though a deep dive on the numbers suggests he was as effective as before, with bad luck contributing to the extra runs allowed. Between the Yankees and Astros, he tossed 54 1/3 innings with a 4.64 ERA. But his 26.9% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 46.7% ground ball rate were all pretty close to his career norms. His .340 batting average on balls in play and 66.6% strand rate were both on the unfortunate side of average, which is why metrics like his 3.74 FIP and 3.43 SIERA were closer to his career ERA.

He’s a sensible pickup for the Pirates, who lost each of Aroldis Chapman, Jalen Beeks and Ryan Borucki to free agency at season’s end. The departure of those three southpaws left them with Joey Wentz, a September waiver claimee with a 5.56 career ERA, as the only lefty reliever on the roster. Ferguson immediately becomes the top southpaw in Pittsburgh’s bullpen.

That doesn’t mean he’ll be limited to a specialty role, as his splits aren’t too drastic. He has naturally been better against left-handed hitters, holding them to a line of .231/.333/.375 in his career, but righties have been only marginally more effective against him with a .245/.321/.381 line. He has earned six saves and 49 holds in his career, so perhaps he will step into a setup role, depending on what other moves the Pirates make for their bullpen this winter.

There also seems to be some possibility of Ferguson ending up in the rotation, as Stumpf reports that the Bucs will stretch him out in spring training. That would be an interesting pivot for Ferguson, as he has almost exclusively been in the bullpen in his big league career. He does have 14 starts on his ledger, but most of those were of the “opener” variety for just an inning or two.

He did come up as a starter in the minor leagues, however, so it wouldn’t be totally foreign to him. As mentioned, he has fairly neutral splits, perhaps allowing him to pitch through a full lineup. He also has a fairly diverse pitch mix for a reliever. Per Statcast, he threw four different pitches at least 9.8% of the time last year: a four-seamer, sinker, cutter and slurve. He didn’t lean on any one pitch too much, topping out at 43.3% usage with the four-seamer. Statcast also categorized 0.2% of his pitches as a sweeper.

Converting relievers into starters has been a popular trend in recent years, with guys like Seth Lugo, Michael King, Garrett Crochet and Reynaldo López some of the better success stories. On the other hand, the results with Jordan Hicks were mixed and the A.J. Puk conversion was quickly abandoned.

It’s an understandable gambit, given the high prices of starting pitchers, as even fliers on high-risk guys have been getting into eight-figure territory this winter. Walker Buehler got $21.05MM coming off a bad year. Guys like Alex Cobb and Justin Verlander got $15MM despite being fairly old by big league standards and coming off injury-marred seasons.

Making a $3MM investment in Ferguson and turning him into a passable backend starter could be a nice bit of business, but there are reasons to think it might not come to pass. As mentioned, the Bucs have an obvious need for a lefty reliever, whereas the rotation is the strongest part of the roster. They are going into the season with a strong starting core of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller, with guys like Bailey Falter, Johan Oviedo, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington all candidates for the back end.

The simplest and perhaps most likely outcome is that the Bucs simply use those guys in the rotation and move Ferguson to the bullpen, but there’s little harm in stretching him out in the spring to see what it looks like. It’s far easier to go from long outings to short ones early in the year, as opposed to getting stretched out midseason. The spring is the right time to do a little experimenting, as Ferguson can easily slide to the bullpen if it doesn’t work out.