As the offseason wears on, talk about a potential short-term deal for Pete Alonso only intensifies. The slugger is one of the sport's most prolific home run hitters, second only to Aaron Judge dating back to Alonso's 2019 MLB debut. He's a consistent 30- or 40-homer presence who's anchored the middle of the Mets' lineup from the moment he set foot in the majors. The "Polar Bear" is a former Home Run Derby winner who's leaned into the spectacle of that summer showcase, participating in the event for five straight years and taking home the trophy on two different occasions.
Alonso is a marketable, star-caliber player who'd improve any lineup -- even on the heels of a downturn in performance (relative to his lofty standards). After slashing .261/.349/.535 through his first four MLB campaigns, Alonso has dipped to "only" .229/.324/.480 over the past two seasons. He's still corked 80 homers in that time and been 21% better than average at the plate by measure of wRC+, but it's a notable departure from Alonso's first four seasons, when wRC+ pegged him 37% better than the average hitter.
For a player who just turned 30 and doesn't bring much to the table with the glove or on the bases, any dip in production is worrying. Alonso's strikeout rate has also crept back up. After falling from 26.4% to 25.5% to 19.9% and 18.7% from 2019-22, he's punched out at a 22.9% rate in 2023 and a 24.7% rate in 2024. It's not necessarily an alarming trend yet for a player with Alonso's prodigious power -- especially since he's also boosted his walk rate in consecutive seasons, reaching 10.1% in '24 -- but there's still some reason to be concerned.
Alonso thrived at making contact on pitches off the plate in 2021-22 when his strikeout rate was at its lowest, doing so at a 59.4% clip that was well north of the 56.5% league average across those two seasons. Over the past two seasons, Alonso's contact rate outside the strike zone has dipped to 54.6%. He's offset that by cutting down on the rate at which he chases -- hence the improved walk rate -- but when he does chase, he's swinging through the pitch more often.
Those red flags (of varying severity), Alonso's age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer all surely combine to tamp down some interest in him. He never seemed that likely to reach the heights that Freddie Freeman did in free agency (six years, $162MM), but there was some thought that a five-year deal (or six at a lower rate) could be there.
That said, the short-term developments were also foreseeable. We've kicked ourselves for moving off the prediction of a three-year, $90MM deal with multiple opt-outs for Alonso, which for awhile was our unofficial prediction for MLBTR's annual Top 50 free agent list. The market hasn't rewarded this skill set in recent years, and it felt very possible that Alonso would go out looking for Freeman money -- if not more -- and find himself in a situation similar to that of last offseason's quartet of fellow Boras clients who lingered on the market into spring training. We ultimately opted to bet that the market -- or at least just the Mets -- would show out for Alonso and predicted five years and $125MM. Maybe he'll still get there, but the likelihood seems much lower now.
ESPN's Jeff Passan, The Athletic's Will Sammon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio and a host of others have all reported on the possibility of Alonso taking a short-term deal in recent weeks. It's hard to imagine such an arrangement would happen anywhere other than Queens. But, if the Mets simply don't want to bring Alonso back on a premium annual salary -- they're nearly into the third luxury penalty tier; Alonso would catapult them to the fourth and highest tier -- others could certainly enter the mix.
Let's run through some potential landing spots under the assumption that Alonso has indeed softened his stance on a short-term arrangement...
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I hope he goes to the Giants, but he’s going to stay with the Mets.
The Giants know better than to sign Pete. If they were truly on to him he would have been signed by now. No team is knocking doors down to sign Pete because they know he’s clearly overpriced. Pete is on the decline and is a poor defender. His egg shaped body doesn’t help.
6′-3″ at a reported 245 lbs, which looks like an understatement.
3/60m to the 2.1 fWAR player in 2024, who some kindly predictions have putting up a 2.5 fWAR season in ’25. Standard aging curves have him as playable in 2025-2026 and not really worth a starting gig in 2027. That’s the typical basis for a 3-year deal.
Was that egg salad made this morning?
I don’t see the Giants pursuing Alonso with Bryce Eldridge probably up by mid-season. Plus, the Giants infield defense is now one of the best in MLB with Chapman at third, the addition of Willy Adames at short moving Tyler Fitzgerald to 2b, and LaMonte Wade is close to Gold Glove at first.
Alonso is a below average glove.
Don’t feel like reading this
Can someone give me a summary?
@Fletcher Fan
“What does Pete Alonso look like on a short term deal?”
Still mediocre….
Boras’ has the media in his pocket so he has them intentionally write about Pete in an attempt to get some reaction from Stearns. Stearns is going to field a winner in NY which does not include Pete.
We can hope. Players who hump the dugout rail, hump their fellow players on the field, and try to teach a million child fans the LFGM chant can break rocks.
Stearns front office doesn’t leak and it’s driving clickbait sports media bananas that they have to spew zany hot takes day after day
Mets 4 years with a couple opt outs for $120M. Man that was easy. Ahahahahaha!
My thoughts exactly… Sterns should just get it done.
Let’s incentive the player in steep decline with one modest skill to stick around at a high AAV. Makes sense.
The Bellinger contract. Same contract. That makes sense for both sides.
Pete should fire boras
It is also the case that he simply did not turn in the platform year that he needed to. Alonso isn’t an idiot, he should know that teams will look at him with some skepticism after 2024.
Twins are in badly in need of a RH bat, and a 1B. Boras and the Twins have quite the relationship (from the Correa saga). If they get sold as quickly as has been hinted at, could be the new owners “splash” signing of the off-season, with some sort of contrived, multi-optout type contract. With current ownership — not a chance in Hell.
Twins know better, they are staying clear away from Alonso.
Must be nice to say the words, “new owner.”
Signed,
Every long suffering Pirates fan
Can’t see the Giants taking on a second QO penalty for a player that will be a one or two year rental. They will probably stick with a Wade/Flores platoon until Eldridge is ready, likely next year.
The opt-out contracts listed all came under Zaidi. Posey is more focused on building a sustainable core.
@John Bird True, that. Also, the opt-outs were offered to very good players with high upside, where the chances they’ll stick around on your dime because they’re not playing well are fairly small. Those are the players you’re willing to entice by offering opt-outs to, as a kind of ‘break glass in emergency’ insurance policy for them.
A player like Alonso is the opposite of that. He’s not someone likely to overperform a $30m AAV. Something like 3/90m is already far more than he’s likely to be worth. Throwing in opt-outs only increases the chance he’ll stick around and continue to underperform the AAV for as long as the deal lasts.
Fans are like parrots. They learn about opt-outs, so they repeat “opt-out! opt-out!” whenever they find a contract situation confusing.
Pete is not worth anything north of 22mil AAV for more than 3 years. Until he realizes that he’s a flawed and declining player he will remain a free agent. Until then, good luck trying to find a team to overpay for this one dimensional player and poor defender. He’s a whiff machine that leaves countless of RISP, totally inconsistent hitter. He’s a player that teams looking at competing at the highest levels will stay away from.
It used to be that guys who had a disappointing walk year and were not at an ideal age had to take a 1-year pillow contract and prove their value. The recent trend towards 2-4 year deals with multiple opt-outs has given these guys a better option for sure.
Alonso’s big problem here is that he can’t force the Mets to bid against themselves. I’m proud of them so far – they have called his bluff with silence. They have been careful not to antagonize him, but the fact that he is the one now making “Mets only” proposals has really shown the weakness of his bargaining position.
C’mon, Pete – if you wanna stay with the Mets, you’re gonna have to look at a Bellinger-esque deal at this point. And you should be happy to get that.
This is the way. Pete is going to have to bet on himself, while still securing some kind of “bag”. Dude just isn’t worth multiple years at $20mil+
Stearns needs to sign Bregman and move Vientos to first base and be done with Pete. Let him spend the season at home looking for a contract just like Conforto.
In the “it only takes one team” category, someone will offer him $90m for 3 years. They will probably regret it.
No one is that desperate to offer close to 30aav for power bat only. There is also a perception whether fair or not that Mets will get the last look. If clubs feel like they’re just being used to bid up a specific player that isn’t worth such attention, the effort will be minimal to make a push.
So from the comments it seems like the article bottom line is there is no market for him. Too bad I can’t read the article, I’m logged in but I guess there is some new paid subscription level—instead of a link to pay for it however I got three different annoying video ads etc
Ok it wasn’t just me. I thought I was all ready a memeber.
I thought his original Mets offer was decent. 3/90. 30 million a year is decent stuff?
2/3 yrs $27.5 yr
Why can’t I read this? I’m a subscriber. Is it because I’m using the app?
Hey you guys might want to put a premium logo in the thumbnails for articles like this.