The Padres and Dylan Cease have avoided arbitration, as reported by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The right-hander will earn $13.75MM in 2025. That’s $5.75MM more than his salary last season and just a hair over his $13.7MM salary projection, courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Cease, 29, was everything the Padres could have hoped for in 2024 after they sent Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, and Steven Wilson to the White Sox last March to acquire him. In a league-leading 33 starts, Cease pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 3.46 SIERA. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. The Padres went 20-13 (.606) in his outings.
The 2024 campaign marked a resurgent bounceback for Cease following his disappointing 2023. After finishing runner-up in the AL Cy Young race in 2022, the righty lost velocity on his fastball the next season and finished with a 4.58 ERA. The underlying numbers suggested Cease was the victim of some rotten luck (and some terrible defense), but no matter how you sliced it, he didn’t look quite as dominant as he was the year before. In addition to his declining velocity, his strikeout rate was down, his hard-hit rate was up, and his 4.10 SIERA ranked 25th out of 43 qualified pitchers.
In 2024, Cease put all concerns to bed and proved he is still a frontline starting pitcher. His velocity was back up on all his pitches, and he even toyed with a new sweeper – to good results (.218 wOBA, 38.5% whiff rate). He ranked among the top 10 qualified pitchers in SIERA, FIP, and xERA, while cementing himself as one of the most durable starters in the league. Over the past four years, no one has started more games. Even the diminished version of Cease on display in 2023 would be well worth a $13.75MM salary. If he’s at the top of his game again in 2025, he’ll be one of the more underpaid aces around. Fortunately for Cease, if he can do that, he’ll be putting himself in a strong position to cash in big as a free agent next winter.
As for the Padres, they’ll be even more reliant on Cease in 2025 after losing fellow All-Star righty Joe Musgrove to a UCL injury in October. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Musgrove will miss the entire 2025 campaign. That makes it all the more surprising that Cease’s name has come up in trade speculation this offseason. While there is no indication the Padres are actively shopping their ace, teams have inquired about his availability, and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has not said anything to shut down the trade rumors. As ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote, teams that have called the Padres about Cease “haven’t been rebuffed entirely.”
The Padres are reportedly trying to get their payroll down to somewhere in between last year’s $169MM total and this year’s current estimate of $208MM (per RosterResource). Trading Cease and his $13.75MM salary could allow the Padres to accomplish that. He’s not their most expensive player, but of the nine Padres set to earn eight figures in 2025, he is certainly the most tradeable. Still, the Padres are planning to compete this season, and it’s very difficult to imagine them trading their best starting pitcher to trim payroll without significantly hurting their chances in the NL West. It’s hard enough to find a pitcher of Cease’s caliber at any price, let alone on a one-year, $13.75MM deal.
Bargain.
Yeah, no kidding. That’s kinda how team control works
Yeah, when people talk about free agent salaries being too high, they need to remember the bargains teams get for every player’s first 6-7 seasons.
gbs – Well, not with international free agents.
Yamamoto, Yoshida etc were no bargains ;O)
FPG,
International free agents have to be at least 25 years old to sign a major league contract, so their prior teams certainly got them at rock bottom prices.
gbs – Agreed, I didn’t realize you were including Japanese etc teams.
FPG,
Yeah, my point is that pretty much every player is underpaid before they hit free agency.
Arraez 14 M
Cease 13.75
Gallen 13.5
Lmao
Verlander 15 mill
Lmao
You left off verlanders social security
Some really good social security pay. If we were all so fortunate to have that in our senior years playing a kids game ⚾️. I’ll take it.
The only thing higher than Verlanders era last year
His draft number?
Yeah. We are just going to have to hope that a united and
professional ownership group can direct us through the Justin Verlander $15m crisis. Worrying times for sure.
Should be easier to handle than the Arson Judge to the Giants debacle and all those years of “failed physicals” nixing deals.
Hardly the teams fault, but righto, I’ll cop that.
How about owning what is widely regarded as the 2 most debilitating long term contracts in the game.
Give it up mate. Your team is a hot mess. Padre folks would be dancing in the street naked if Verlanders $15m was their biggest financial problem.
Yeah, people also said Padres wouldn’t compete if they traded Soto and wound up winning the second most games in franchise history, even with those “debilitating” contracts.
Some teams can compete regardless of circumstances. And then theres the Giants who somehow manage to underperform with a healthy roster.
You maxxed out the piggy bank and won nothing, other than the second most games in franchise history. Hopefully they mocked you up a trophy for that outstanding achievement.
Giants go alright. They compete most of the time.
I’ve seen them win 3 titles. How many of those have you seen ? Just curious.
Pretty sure they won entry to the playoffs and won the first round. And lost to a team that outspent everyone. More than the Giants can say they’ve accomplished last year.
Oh no the piggy bank is maxxed! While we literally watched them win series after series playing tyler freaking wade and former giants cast off brian freaking johnson while Bogaerts and Tatis Jr were injured lmao. Still found wayst to win.
Living in the past. Cute. Cause you cant hang in the present. Go watch reruns while rest of us try to compete this year.
Ha ha. Dude. That’s awesome. You had a nice little run and that’s good, but it’s about rings. You have still won nothing. Nada, zip, zero. Yes, rings last forever so we get the pleasure of reruns ! It’s cool the way that works.
Hopefully you will get to watch a rerun one day. In the meantime, enjoy those awesome 2nd most wins in franchise history. Good times !
FMD. I swear padres fans think they are the Dodgers.
Look rerun. Go clean the stains off your VHS tapes last time giants were competitive. Be better use of your time than expecting giants to go anywhere this year.
I got them converted to digital. Easier access for when I’m feeling a little romantic. If time is of the essence I’ll go 2012. If I have time on my …umm….hands….I’m rolling with 2014. If I want the hot flush of feeling like the first time, I bring out 2010.
Yeah baby. Thanks Giants.
I’ve got the love scenarios covered.
Black lights are banned in your household aren’t they
No. Why ?
Are you trying to tell me you don’t masturbate ?
Not to reruns of championships my spurs and cowboys won no.
Ha ha. Bice come back.
Bro, loosen up and live a little !
Cheap. NYY should take notes.
NYY
Soto
Torres
Rizzo
Lmao
This is the pitcher the NYY should have don’t anything to get last year.
Good… but hope they don’t trade him unless somebody is willing to offer a LOT in return. Need Cease at the top of the rotation to have a shot at the playoffs. Would love to have Roki sign with the Padres (which I still think is possible), but either way it’s going to be challenging getting enough quality innings from the current (and “projected”) starters.
I doubt that Sasaki is going to sign with SD. To much drama going on with the ownership. He’s better of with the 2024 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS. No drama in that organization
You are correct by signing with the Padres he will get the better of the Dodgers.
Lol, he will still likely go Padres or elsewhere.
He certainly may do that and if he does, I still wish him the best. But with a current rotation of Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani (when he’s ready) and Kershaw when they likely resign him plus Gonsolin, May, Knack and Sheehan behind them even with all the typical Dodger rotation injuries that impact them it makes you wonder what Sasaki will do on the Dodgers. Get Gatorade for Shohei and Yoshi when they need it?
If Sasaki signs with the Dodgers, will he be a starter? Considering the Dodger’s rotation, he’s likely to work as a long reliever, which might be O.K., to ease him into dealing MLB hitters, and the MLB game schedule.. However, he appears to be a man who wants to “go go now”, considering that he left Japan early sacrificing a $fortune if he’d waited another year or so.
I think those to believe Sasaki will be deterred by the intra-family ownership intrigue are just hoping he falls to their favored team. The Padres ARE “go now”, he’d definitely be starting (unless he forgets how to throw a baseball on the way over the Pacific). Between Niebla, the Padre’s funded USD baseball lab, his idol, Darvish, and the team make-up, the Padres are the IDEA place for him to start. Put another way, there’s more than one team who could be a great fit for Sasaki, such as the Giants, Dodgers, Mariners, maybe even the Rangers or Yankees, but the Padres are better fits than each of those.
Sasaki’s velocity being down last season would have me worried that Tommy John isn’t too far away.
Dodgers sure hope they don’t trade him….
Why wouldn’t the Dodgers want Cease trades?
Guess you dint watch the games….
Dodgers honestly are probably the only MLB team that couldn’t care less what other teams do. When you’re one of the richest (the richest?) teams in the league, you simply buy whatever you need whenever you need it. I don’t think the Dodgers are too concerned even if they lose to the Padres when Cease pitches. But that’s ok… I remind myself of Bill Murray’s speech in the old Meatballs movie “It Just Doesn’t Matter!”. Hoping the Baseball gods do what they always do to teams who think they can buy a World Series. Good luck to all the teams this year… because maybe it does matter. Also, on a very serious note, I’m praying for all the people in the LA area affected by the fires. I have friends in the area and so far they’re ok.
The Dodgers don’t have the most or spend the most. They just the smartest….
They only had the third largest payroll in the league next to the Mets and the Yankees, AND spent over a BILLION dollars last offseason, but they don’t spend the most, riiiiigggghhhhttttt.
Maybe… But then again a couple years ago they traded for a clearly gassed Lance Lynn and with an injured Kershaw against the DBacks in the 2023 playoffs got swept. Enter 2024 and someone shook the money tree and financial “deferrals” (totally legit) and bingo, bango… much better team.
die defunctorum, they won 100 games in 2023
Mets and Yankees spent more and still lost. Feels good, man….
Hey I’m not dissing the Dodgers or calling them stupid. Andrew Friedman is very good at his job. Congrats to the Dodgers on winning the 2024 WS… but they still got swept by the DBacks in the 2023 playoffs. Nothing is guaranteed… although I would argue the 2025 Dodgers (if healthy) have a very good shot at exceeding the 2023 regular season wins. Still gotta get through the playoffs again though. It will be fun to see how it all plays out.
It feels good to buy a championship? Lol ok Boo Boo, whatever floats your boat. You’re the type of guy that brags about bagging a baddie but fail to leave out the part that you had to pay for it lol.
Why do they want to trade this guy again?
The media wants to trade him, the Pads aren’t marketing him for trade
Hon Jeyman says Dylan Cease for Marcus Stroman plus int’l pool money (for Sasaki) make lots of sense. What is Preller and Cashman waiting for?
Hahahahahahagahaha
ill ask them over dinner tonite
Hon Jeyman is so full of $h¡t his eyes turned brown! >.<
@YBC, for Arson to get involved.
Because he’s a free agent next year and is gonna demand 35 million per.
Will be interesting to see how Drew Thorpe does with WSox this year. Iriarte? I had high hopes for him but so far meh. Zavala isn’t looking like a MLer, but is still young
Cease’s trade value is “sky high”.
Top of the rotation Starters making 13.75M per year are rare in MLB.
If the Padres get the right package of great young major league players and almost major league ready prospects, then they have to seriously look at making a deal.
Remember, the Padres instantly became a BETTER TEAM/WON MORE GAMES AFTER THEY TRADED SOTO.
You’re not mentioning though that he only has one year of control. So that also limits the value they can get in a trade as well. As messy as things seem there, I’m not even sure if they’re looking to move him.
I agree with the idea that trading Cease could bring back a nice return of prospects, but if you do trade him, it is certainly a setback in terms of competing in ’25, the Padres rotation is already short of quality starts, and they don’t have many options on the farm. A Cease trade is one year of Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts and Arraez lost. If you trade Cease you have to trade Arraez too.
Which, generally speaking, suggests it ain’t happenin’!
That’s why they will only trade him for an overpay
You really shouldn’t be dealing either one of them with Darvish near the end and Machado and Bogaerts turning 33 but if there’s no money coming in from ownership—Preller has to.
Catcher is the biggest black hole though. Going into the season with just Campusano is horrible. They need to at least sign a vet who plays defense. Punt the offense completely if you have to.
Padres can save money if they want dealing others.
Last year for Machado at a discount, his salary goes up to 25M in ’26 and 39M thru 2031, Tatis on a similar deal, his AAV goes up to 36M in 2029. You have Musgrove for three more years at 20M.
If your the Padres this is looking like the year to spend with Arraez and Cease on team friendly deals. I can’t see them trading either, might as well make a run at it this season.
They also have about 60m + coming off the books next year.
This is the year because you have some reasonable priced players that will either see the prices rise or be free agents.