Today's mailbag gets into the Gavin Lux trade, the Yankees' infield, the Giants' ability to add a bat, how the Orioles could trade for a top starter, what a Blake Street Bombers Part 2 lineup could look like for the Rockies, why some free agents don't sign in Toronto, why the Astros aren't getting more flak for trading Kyle Tucker, and more.
Kyle asks:
What's your take on the Lux trade to Cincinnati? As a Mariners fan I'm a bit irked they wouldn't beat the Reds offer (M's have comp A pick #33, Reds traded #37 and a prospect for Lux). Are the M's being too risk averse?
Leonard asks:
I heard on MLB TV that the Reds really like Gavin Lux’s versatility to play multiple positions. Isn’t that one of the reasons the Dodgers traded him? (Besides the surplus of middle infielders). Lux is an average 2B. He couldn’t make the throws from SS. He didn’t show that he could play 3B or the OF well enough, either. Comments?
Jeff asks:
After the Gavin Lux trade, how much playing time do you think Noelvi Marte gets this year?
Dante asks:
Do you think the Lux trade for the Reds was in anticipation of another move, something like a trade from infield depth for Luis Robert? I understand the desire to add good players, but they do seem to have stockpiled a lot of infielders, and the team seems to need some pop in the middle of the lineup.
Elliott asks:
After the Gavin Lux acquisition, who is the best fit for the Reds' next move? Probably a right-handed hitting outfielder at this point?
Colin asks:
I have always liked Gavin Lux although he has not yet developed into the star he was projected to be. That said, I wonder if the trade clears the way for Mookie Betts to return to his more natural position of second base with Rojas and Kim splitting duty at shortstop? I would note too that it clears a roster spot for Sasaki, if they are fortunate enough to sign him. Your thoughts?
Jason asks:
What do you make of the Gavin Lux trade? Did the Dodgers have enough of him or did they like Alex Freeland enough to platoon with Kim?
Lux is a 27-year-old platoon second baseman. He saved his season with a hot streak that I'd say ran from July 11th through September 4th. In that period, Lux posted a huge 181 wRC+ in 161 plate appearances. He then posted a 80 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances for the rest of the regular season, adding another 43 postseason PA with a .177/.286/.294 line.
Prior to his eight-week hot streak, Lux was one of the ten worst-hitting regular position players in baseball over a span of 264 plate appearances. On the season, Lux was heavily shielded against left-handed pitching, facing southpaws only 10.3% of the time. That's for good reason - he posted an absymal 17 wRC+ against lefties in those 50 PA.
In comments on MLB.com, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall pointed to this October 4th article from Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs to help explain Lux's second half efforts to swing harder and do more damage. Lux's changes were real; he clearly started swinging harder. You can read more about those changes in this August 8th article from Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic.
Lux has a 108 wRC+ against righties over 1,210 plate appearances in his career. The eight-week streak isn't enough to convince me he's changed, especially since he struggled again for the last 105 PA of his season.
All that said, Lux is a 27-year-old former first rounder. There is upside here where swinging harder leads to a 120 wRC+, he holds his own against lefties as he did in 2022, and he becomes a 4-5 WAR player and borderline star. Maybe he can become adequate at positions than other second base, too. I don't think the Reds are likely to get that out of him when the Dodgers couldn't, but perhaps being back in the midwest and out of the spotlight will help.
Defensively, Krall said Lux will play second base, some outfield, and DH, and the team would "give him a look" at third base and shortstop. Lux famously had issues making the throw from shortstop; it's hard to see how third base would be any better. He showed seventh percentile arm strength this year, probably ruling out right field. Lux dabbled in left field as recently as 2022, so I could see him getting time there. The idea of Lux being versatile is overstated the way it once was when Jurickson Profar couldn't find a position. So yes, I agree with what Leonard said in his question above.
As a second baseman, Lux was slightly below-average in Statcast's OAA this year. So I believe what the Reds have in Lux is two affordable years of a platoon second baseman who needs to be on the bench 27% of the time but is capable of a 108 wRC+ against righties. That's a useful player.
But what if I told you there was a free agent, also controllable for two years, who would sign for $3.5MM and could pretty much do the same things as Lux, but has also demonstrated he can play third base well?
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How is a GG 3B (Ramon Urias) with a career OPS equal to Willy Adames and no (Zero) seasons with an OPS+ below 100 a “bench player”? For the Mariners? He’s a somewhat above average MLB regular at 3B and 2B.
@Atl
Some of these writes don’t know what they’re talking about.
I debated calling Urias a bench player. Obviously he is for the Orioles and would not be for the Mariners. Never having played 120 games in a season, he seems something short of a regular.
What matters here is not labels but whether the player could serve as a centerpiece for a Luis Castillo trade. I assume you would agree two years of Urias could not?
I like Ramon Urias. He’s an above average hitter. Hasn’t exactly been used as a regular for the last two years or so. Added contact this year and barrels in the second half, relatively interesting as a hitter.
I’m not an OPS guy, so I can’t speak to that, but Urias has never played SS (or anything I guess) full-time in the Majors, which is a big part of Adames’ value.
Urias was an excellent 3B for about 70% of a season in 2022. I’m not a big Gold Glove guy though.
Urias has always had poor arm strength for a 3B. He had excellent range in 2022.
Since then, he has been the worst 3B in baseball by measure of OAA despite ranking 17th in innings at the position. He’s very bad coming in and going to his right.
It’d be interesting to read why Urias had great range in 2022 and terrible range in all other seasons. Perhaps injuries?
Significant knee sprain in Oct 2022
Hamstring strain in May 2023
Ankle sprain in Aug 2024
I think there are a couple moving parts in the equation that would be interesting to study for Urias (and others)
1. Defense partners on the left side
2024 – Gunnar Henderson had nearly all the time at SS (157 G)
2023 – Henderson was a 50/50 split between SS/3B, Mateo had 110 games at SS,
2022 – Primarily Mateo (149 G),
Mateo’s defensive #’s were also awesome in 2022, slipped in 2023 and 2024 to above average but not noteworthy. So maybe the combination just clicked defensively for both of them. Henderson’s not a bad fielder but he’s also young and very likely has different tendencies and a different feel for whoever’s playing next to him. Maybe his range shrank because Henderson is getting to more balls Urias would have gone to in 2022 though that wouldn’t impact Urias going to his right.
2. Outlaw of the shift
Offensively like many guys he does better with regular time and didn’t get much time early last year so he was struggling, down around .217 on 6/30. In the 2nd half he got much more regular time especially after Westburg got hurt. Outside his own injury in that period he hit .287 with .853 OPS, 7 HR in 52 games. He also cut down on the K’s this year.
The Aug 2024 ankle sprain was kind of fluky, he tripped over the bag on an awkward play trying to cover a steal attempt. Poor guy got HBP in the same game (was at that one).
Bc his defense has regressed to where he’s a negative at 3b, and his bat is basically average w last three years wrc+ at 106, 99, 115 and these arent even over full seasons. He might start for a bad team but thats it.
D metrics only liked urias in 2022 for his entire career.
I’ve always thought from watching him that he’s a perfectly capable 3B. I never thought he was spectacular but I really never pegged him be anywhere below average. Statcast data says differently though.
I think Urias could be a low end regular. I think he’d be best used in a lineup 4x a week and maybe those Abs would come at multiple positions. He has plenty of work and came up as a 2B. He could probably play 1B and SS in a pinch. Useful piece.
I am also tired of the high tax narrative in general, and particularly as it relates to California. If I’m making as much as these guys, the tax issue is a minor concern at best. Quality of life (highly subjective) is probably the more important concern outside the baseball specific considerations.
Agreed. The tax rate excuse is used much too often and not a valid argument. Those Players who sign contracts in the higher taxed areas are only subject to those higher rates for the days that they are in that location. Most would (or should) also be investing the majority of their money in long term tax sheltered investments that are protected from those same taxes. IMHO, the tax rate is not as important to the Player as the status of the franchise and the perceived ability for the Player to Win a WS. It’s also not as important as the location. A recent Player poll (last year?) named southern California and Toronto as favorite locations to visit when on the road. All Players have gone through Canada Customs at one time or another since interleague play began.. They are all familiar with the process. Clearance paperwork is sent electronically in advance of arrival at the Airport and a Custom’s agent is contracted to service the team at a private hangar at the Airport. It’s a 5-10 minute delay at the most. They do not wait in line like the General Public
As for Ricciardi’s comments from years ago…, he was an American running a Canadian Team for a brief period of Time. He failed and got fired. Probably because he listened to Burnett”s lame excuse for needing more money to play in Canada
Running the Blue Jays for nearly eight years is a brief period of time?
As if the rich in the U.S. pay taxes…
As a Dodger fan, I think I pulled harder for Lux to succeed than any player on the team last year. He had such a tough break the year before with that significant injury and it just seemed his potential and upside had the greatest amount uncertainty of any player on the squad going into the season. I was so proud of his perseverance and happy for him when his second half turn around seemed to go well.
Tim’s analysis of the trade and Gavin’s current strengths/limitations seem on point to me. Thanks for the write up and the best of luck to Gavin moving forward. Hopefully, the ballpark in Cincinnati and Francona’s tutelage will result in a great season for Gavin.
In my opinion, the theory that players and their families don’t really want to play in Canada only holds water for American players, as non-Americans have already experienced a significant culture shift coming overseas and would probably be more amenable to heading north.
However, Ricciardi’s comments are interesting and certainly seem applicable to recruiting some Americans, who obviously make up a good portion of the league. Perhaps the front office should consider those words when attempting to sign American born players and reconsider how they view free agents. Unfortunately, it seems that where a player is raised and their off the field beliefs can present a significant roadblock to just playing a game in almost any city, but especially in Toronto.
The Jays front office needs to target players that want to be there, not overpaid to play there.
Also, the current state of the team has to factor into a player’s decision making process, even if it is just a little bit. That wasn’t really addressed, but I think it is a valid point.
Assuming this will be an ongoing problem the Jays also need to take more of the approach that has worked so well for the Braves, of accepting the risks associated with signing very young players, even those who haven’t played in the majors, to extensions that at least buy out a FA year, if not several.
Build the best projection system for prospects in baseball, then bet on your best young players.
—The Jays were smart to get Giminez, especially for the price they paid. For a player who put up 16.7 bWAR since 2022 (compared to 12.2 bWAR for Vlad Jr.), the deal has gotten almost no press. And the extension that came with him is 5/100m for Giminez through age 30, with a 20m option for his age 31 season, versus the 400m+ it’s rumored Guerrero wants, that would take him through at least 35.
How didn’t the Jays win this offseason, particularly if they avoid overpaying for Guerrero’s year to year chaotic results?
Crane hasn’t been as consistent as stated. He definitely went to the top of the market on Hader last year. Not 6+ years, but certainly the top of the market.
I was going to mention that exception but didn’t. So thank you. Of course, the top of the reliever market does not require the money other positions do.
Love the imagining of a power-laden Rockies lineup, and I agree with most of it. Toglia, however, does not have defensive issues at 1B. He’s a great fielding first baseman but his defensive numbers last year looked bad when he was put out of position in RF.
Nice to get a fun Rockies question! I was just going off Statcast OAA, but I don’t know.
He graded out poorly at 1B per OAA. He only played 12 games worth of innings in the outfield.
OAA is a range measure though. He was -4 OAA at 1B. I haven’t seen enough Rockies baseball to know if he can pick it over there. Obviously more to being a 1B than range.