This week's mailbag covers how free agent righty Jack Flaherty might approach his current situation, whether Alex Bregman makes sense for the Nationals, accusations of the Dodgers having a predetermined deal for Roki Sasaki, low-cost right field options for the Pirates, how the Giants could fit in a bat, a comparison of Jordan Montgomery, Taijuan Walker, and Marcus Stroman, why the Twins collapsed, and much more.
Lance asks:
It's somewhat surprising to see Jack Flaherty kind of iced out, up to this point, in free agency given the urgency and value placed on quality starting pitching. Would he be in line for a 'better' contract if he opted for a long-term (5-yr) contract at a lower AAV than expected/preferred versus opting for a short-term contract that could see him saddled with a Qualifying Offer next offseason?
I'm seeing a bit of a Carlos Rodon parallel here. Rodon had an awesome breakout 2021 with the White Sox and hit the market without a qualifying offer, but with a dubious health track record. So he took two years and $44MM from the Giants with an opt-out, had an even better season, got the QO, and still landed a $162MM deal.
Rodon's Giants contract came after the lockout, and that was an unorthodox winter for all free agents. But he was only 29 at the time, and I imagine he had lower-AAV longer-term offers like you mentioned for Flaherty. If so, he made himself a lot of money by not taking that type of deal.
That worked out so well for Rodon because he dominated in 2022. Flaherty would need to stay healthy and pitch well in 2025 to get the $100MM+ deal he's likely seeking. He doesn't turn 30 until October, so he's in a good position to take a short-term deal (with opt-outs if it's multiyear) and go back to the market even with the QO. If he really wanted to be strategic, he could sign with a team that is likely to trade him at the deadline, and dodge the QO again. If Flaherty's 2025 is decent but not great, he could also consider accepting a QO.
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in other words, the Bucs are going the cheapest route which has become the norm for this franchise
Bringing in players who can’t hit their own weight
Counting on never has beens or never will bees to play right field
And all by the tightest wad owner in baseball
Had a friend that worked in video scouting in the minors for them and he said the owner still drove around in a 2005 junker, but either way point being as long as Nutting owns the pirates they will not spend money and that is sad for one of baseballs oldest and most storied teams.
I’ve worked for Nutting, by proxy. Drafted, signed, etc. Nice guy by all means, but definitely ‘seemed’ cheap on all accounts. I can’t speak to the larger scope, but the ins-and-outs of daily Minor League life was held together with duct tape and prayers.
Do any owners spend on minor league? Until technology required them to buy fancy gadgets it’s wasn’t glamorous for anyone I ever talked to.
Good point, but sometimes things were so bad that we’d (players) come out of pocket to buy or repair stuff. It was so much easier than waiting for an “approved” fix.
Unfortunately if it doesn’t make you a better aka more valuable player they aren’t concerned about fixing it. If it was some key piece of equipment then it was a huge mistake. If it was a comfort or pleasure item I wouldn’t expect them to be concerned.
Daily driver is a awful investment. Certain lost. No need to drive a brand new car unless you enjoy losing $. Driving new cars is for lower middle class trying to look more wealthy. Nuttings already wealthy.
Idk Dream, I’m a Porsche guy through-and-through, but I keep a daily grocery-getter on hand just cuz ig? Good wheels, in it’s own right… but it’ll never be my fav! haha
I’m a poor mans jay Leno. Got problems. Just don’t care about having a brand new vehicle every few years for personal use.
No hate on people that do. Life is too short. Too short to be driving older vehicle every day. I just really hate losing $. Clothes from thrift stores. Used furniture. Life’s short though so buy what you want. It’s just me. And only on things I don’t care about. I’m not drinking tap water and Milwaukee best. Even I splurged on a car once. I wanted the mid engine vette. And a good friends father owning dealership helped justify my decision. So yeah I won’t throw stones. Totally get Nutting driving a beater though.
Gwynning
Idk Dream, I’m a Porsche guy through-and-through
=========================
Please tell me you have a 1995 928S4.
I took a job that relocated to NJ. I bought a new Civic knowing I was going to run it into the ground. I preferred the certainty of a new car over saving a few bucks buying used.that might have a pre-existing condition.
OTOH, when I buy my retirement car, it’ll probably be a 2018 Charger or Challenger. No reason to pay for miles I probably won’t use.
I’m a jack of all trades so know enough to get a good used car if I had to. But I’m just trying to save 10 grand and not 30. Something that has some warranty left. I’m open to buying a new car. I’d just drive it to 200 300k miles. If they make it that long still.
Frickin’ wish, JB! Those V8s were solid and schmexy af. More of a rear engine, rear drive guy here. Won’t catch me in a 4 door Porsche, well, unless it’s my hearse!
That grocery getter I mentioned is a Lexus, still silky smooth and close to 240k. Might need a tranny “soon” but that is, by far, the largest work it will have ever been through. Solid coach!
JB, rewatched Weird Science recently with the old lady and she called me out for drooling over that ridiculously hot…
928S the boys have Lisa conjure up. Quite the worthy rewatch just to see that thing peel out!
youtu.be/u-YcEMcv-qc?si=JxoEjRs5u4oUyCfS
YourDreamGM
I’m open to buying a new car. I’d just drive it to 200 300k miles.
=======================
I remember when I was a kid, when you hit 100k, you were considered lucky. The first new car I got was in the late-80s. I got about 230,000 on it, and gave it to the babysitter. I think she got about another 35,000, but unfortunately, pieces started falling off from where someone hit me.
Next car was all highway miles (Civic). It was at 170,000 and I had to put my hand on the hood to remember whether I had turned the car on. It was that smooth.
Also a lot of stupid people. And even smart ones who just put things off forget. Not changing oil soon enough. Never changing other fluids. And auto industry using terms like lifetime transmission. I been guilty myself. Fortunately I go Japanese. I think if you take ok care of anything you can get 100k.
I haven’t been around that long to know how bad 50s 60 70s cars were. Rusting away seems like a issue. I like the room you have to work on them and no computers. Seems 80s and early 90s trucks were built better. I see many more of them than late 90s 2000s and few I seen are rusted away. I always wanted a truck but the prices today are crazy. It’s a little cabin and the rest is all bed. I guess the charge so much because people will pay. I bought 30 year old one and love it. Probably closer to 40 years now.
Cheapest route is doing Nutting. They been calling lots of people so whoever no one else wants will probably be a Pirate. I’m hoping Grichuk wants the most playing time vs most $. Realizing if he proves he can hit rhp a full season he will actually get more $. At very least gotta get a Canha Pillar type.
Gotta hope he doesn’t demand to be on winner also.
Fortunately people like $ more than winning. But a true winner will realize his value and Pirates won’t be able to compete.
Some 11-year-old from LA pulled the Paul Skenes debut Rookie Card. The Pirates are offering 30 year season tickets etc
I think the Sasaki thing isn’t anything more complicated than he only wanted to play for the Dodgers. Wolfe doesn’t have to be lying to say ‘I think these things are true but we didn’t talk about them’, which is what he said about Sasaki’s preferences.
Is that anti-competitive? A little. But what can you do? The only way to fix it is some complicated international draft.
What could the Dodgers have offered him so far in advance that it would’ve mattered? There isn’t anything secret about the estimated amount of money they could spend, the roster, the player development, endorsement opportunities, etc.
I don’t like it because I wanted my team to sign him, They didn’t and now I hope all his Chipotle orders get delivered cold.
Good points. Plus, if an international draft were in place and Sasaki knew he had no choice over his team, he might then have waited until he’s 25.
Further you go in playoffs the more share you get. More fame for endorsements. Japan has its eyes on LA already. For endorsements and winning there is no better place for him. It was the easiest choice a free agent ever made. Oh and there’s no doubt LA can and willing to give mega extensions. Would have been a idiot to go anywhere else.
To me, Toronto would have made a lot of sense too. You have an international city which might have made the transition a little bit easier for him.
Rogers Communication is huge and if RS hits like everyone thinks then he could be a hero to an entire nation.
Toronto has also shown to have deep pockets for the top of the FA market so retaining him would not be a problem monetary wise.
Rather than tie revenue sharing to improvement record-wise (which is inherently random), I’d rather see owners split the revenue share pot to direct team payments and then a “player pool”, which any team can use to pay for QO players.
It would cover the first year of payments (CBA value) for a QO player contract, and in doing so, would soften the blow of losing draft picks and international FA money, incentivize signing QO players quickly (the pool is limited, so first come, first served) and potentially help lower revenue teams sign quality free agents.
Teams paying tax (or teams whose payrolls are too low) can’t access the QO player pool, only teams that would normally receive revenue share.
Yes, interesting! Not too different from the Competitive Balance Subsidy we talked about on the pod:
mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/mlbtr-podcast-debating-…
Teams that are unwilling to spend their share of revenue to improve their respective teams should be punished by a series of penalties
First time, loss of draft picks
Second time, reduced revenue
Third time, no revenue
So if a team drafts really well ala the Orioles and therefore has a low payroll for a few years, they should lose draft picks
They intentionally tanked for seasons. They are not the model anyone should use. Yes they should lose draft picks. Nothing worse than intentionally losing.
tell the players on those teams they intentionally lost. I wonder how they would react?
Does tanking equal success? Nope. Plenty of teams lose a lot and never rise. The whole “tanking” argument is so nonsensical and not realistic.
They didn’t intentionally lose. They just got bad. They got old, their farm sucked, and their signings sucked.
The mistake they made was not shutting down sooner. They held onto Machado and their pitchers too long. That only dragged out the rebuild.
They must have something as A’s are spending $. If it’s not enough the richer owners will come up with something or starve them out. If your loser brother in law says he is starving and takes your $ and buys drugs or goes on vacation or something with it you don’t want to keep giving him $.
No one’s paying Flaherty what he wants. No one.
Even in 2024 he had 14 very good starts followed by 14 bad ones, where his HR allowed rate was 1.78 per 9, i.e. horrendous. An illusory 3.43 ERA but a 4.29 FIP, followed by an abysmal postseason where all by himself he nearly pitched the Dodgers OUT of the 2024 postseason—giving up 18 ER in 22 innings.
It took Rodon coming in 5th and 6th in the Cy Young vote in two seasons to get a big deal. Flaherty doesn’t have even one season since 2019 that’s close to what Rodon did in 2021-2022, and look at how Rodon’s pitched since then.
Good point about Flaherty looking at something like the 2/44m deal Rodon signed with the opt out after the first season, albeit scaled to
a) Flaherty’s lesser performance in 2024, and
b) the increase in the cost of competent or better SP.
I wonder if Flaherty would accept an incentive-laden contract with the Angels for a few years with mutual opt outs after year one and two? I’m sure he wouldn’t prefer “mutual” opt outs but he may have to consider that soon.
I have a nit to pick about your unqualified statement that Lamonte Wade “has no platoon issues.” I like him as a player/hitter, but the fact is that he has been give very few opportunities to face lefty pitchers over his 6 year MLB career, and he did absolutely terribly against lefties for most of those years from 2019-2022. In 2023, he improved against LHP but only to an average 100 wRC+ in 81 PAs.
Despite that improvement, he was only allowed 43 PAs against LHP in 2024. In that small sample, he did have a wRC+ of 143, but that was an uncharacteristic performance and it did not result in his team treating him as something other than a platoon hitter. It would be nice if he was given more opportunities and continued to hit well against lefties in the future, but to state that he has no platoon issues is inaccurate.
You’re right. 124 PA against lefties over the last two years isn’t really enough to draw that conclusion, and he was shielded quite a bit against lefties (possibly tougher ones) during that time. Good point.
Of course part of Wade’s stats include the caveat that his legs have let him down for several seasons. It’s a shame because his defense at 1b is near Gold Glove. This will be the year—given BoMel’s comments about batting Wade leadoff and JHL batting third—to see if he can stay healthy.
On he other hand, with Bryce Eldridge waiting in the wings it wouldn’t surprise me if Wade gets dealt before the start of the season. He can absolutely be a plus on many teams.
I think they wait until the second half to trade Wade, there’s no way Eldridge is going to win the 1B job out of spring training..
As to deferrals having to be accounted for, I was watching David Samson’s podcast and he said that after the initial showing they had the money, MLB never took further notice of it.
One thing to add about the Twins season. Prior to the All Star Game, they had the benefit of having faced the woeful White Sox 13 times with a 12-1 record against them. They also went 6-1 against the lowly A’s in the first half of the season, while going 3-0 versus the Angels, 2-1 against the Rockies and 2-1 versus the Nationals. That 25-4 record against the various 90+ loss teams in the early part of the season made the team look better than it was.
The Twins only had 6 games against 90+ loss teams down the stretch (2-1 vs the Angels and 1-2 vs the Marlins), and the tougher competition likely played a factor in their end-of-season decline.
If you want a conspiracy theory about Sasaki, how about this: Dodgers, Sasaki, and Chiba Lotte Marines agreed to set this in motion when Sasaki threatened to go directly to MLB when he was 18.
Marines get a few years of his service and a little money instead of none, and then look generous when they let him go.
Sasaki gets to play in Koshien tournament and sign with a quality West coast team that has a history of 2018 international amateur corruption (never resolved after Federal grand jury indictment).
Dodgers get their pitcher for next to nothing relatively speaking.
MLB didn’t know and obviously no one is talking. MLB may be asking the wrong questions, focusing on 2024 rather than 2019.
I’ve had the same thoughts for awhile, but classified them as too “conspiratorial”… we’ll never know the real deal, unfortunately?
Thanks, Gwynning. We won’t unless someone talks. And baseball has long had a thin red-stitched line.
Orrrrr, Sasaki wanted to play for the Dodgers, for a variety of reasons and chose that organization. Nah, that’s too Occam’s Razor stuff. Sorry I wasted your time.
Wade is consistently platooned. Not sure what you mean by no platoon issues.
Yeah, I addressed that above. It was a stupid thing to say.
As Oddvark said, it would be nice if he were given opportunities to try to continue hitting lefties as he has in recent small samples, but Bob Melvin and Gabe Kapler have not done that.
Small samples are usually for a reason. Like can a guy not hit any lefty or just ones with good change ups etc. Some pitchers have reverse splits.
Tim, since I was critical of your recent poll on how the CBA might need to change, I feel even more compelled to commend you for your thorough and factual response to Jonathon’s conspiracy laced and fact-free assertions related to the Sasaki signing.
All we can ask of a moderator of any site such as this is a commitment to providing fact-based information. Thank you
oh, and a “double thank you” for your careful and meticulous unmasking of the professional fraud and malpractice practiced by Jim Bowden!
Tim you really need to get over the heartburn you have for the Dodgers.
I’m not sure what that means.
Shhhhh….think of the endorsement possibilities. “Tim For Tums”, etc.
blogs.fangraphs.com/sick-of-the-dodgers-signing-al…
If I were the Pirates I would focus on giving the internal options playing time. Don’t spend any more money. They don’t need any more last hurrah players who should have had the last hurrah 2-3 years prior.
Why spend money when you have the best pitcher in the world on your team making the minimum?? Or, maybe they can sign or trade for someone who’s actually good?
They will most likely trade Skenes for prospects in the next 2-3 years.
Deferred money won’t be addressed in next CBA. If it’s good for Owners and it’s good for Players, it’s good for baseball. Who cares about what us fans think? Not those guys.
Yup, it’s a bit like some random dude at the bar not liking an arrangement I made with my employer.
But is it?
MLB needs an international draft but one where you can trade the picks. In that way the white Sox would get to select him but could trade the pick to the dodgers if that’s what the player wanted.
I’m ok with them trading picks, but only if they receive a major league rostered player in return as part of the package. They should have to show immediate improvement to justify the hit to their future.
No they don’t. If I were a WS fan, I wouldn’t want major league player for at least three years.
Referring to a rule change, not the White Sox specifically
You trust Bob Nightengale? You trust Heyman? That explains so much.
“And that’s what we have here: no evidence, and a conspiracy theory that Sasaki entertained all these teams as a farce and MLB swept it under the rug.”
MLB doesn’t need to be complicit. Sasaki wanted to play for the Dodgers. He went through the farce of having teams court him, knowing full well he had no intention of going anywhere but Los Angeles. He can say the correct things publicly–and he has–but we all knew where he was going. All of the public statements, by him or his agent, are of a “doth protest too much” variety.
He supposedly considered smaller markets because of the media in Japan: he ended up in the 2nd largest market and did not even consider any of the smaller markets. He supposedly “wanted to make sure he would be embraced in a city”: he spurned many cities that fit this bill and barely considered the Angels who play in (essentially) the same city as the Dodgers. He wanted each suitor team to detail how they would fix any of his pitching issues (vis a vis injuries): he chose the franchise with the most pitching injuries. And so on.
There doesn’t need to be an explicit, secretive deal. He wanted what he wanted, the Dodgers facilitated it, and the whole courting process was a charade meant to throw off any suspicion of a secret deal. We’ve heard more about why he chose the Dodgers than why Ohtani chose them. Why?
This is pure conjecture, and it also implies a lot of people directly lied.
I watched his press conference yesterday. He said very little of substance and the whole thing was 16 minutes, so I don’t see how he’s in the “doth protest” camp. I assume Wolfe spoke on this because it’s a direct shot at his integrity.
All of the supposedly stuff either comes from anonymous reports or things Wolfe said, most of which was taken way out of context.
“We’ve heard more about why he chose the Dodgers than why Ohtani chose them. Why?”
Disagree
Tim, you seemingly always have an open mind – except in this case.
You were absolutely correct when you said people were frustrated that “the rich got richer” – and especially with the potential for Sasaki to be an ace in a few years.
The problem with the situation is that the charade tour was clearly a sham. It’s insulting to everyone that
You’re never going to convince anyone without addressing the true problem: anyone who feels as though there was a desired destination (which there probably was… MLB would never self violate or report any impropriety because then they would lose money) before the entire thing started is being told “LOOK, HE WENT THROUGH THE PROCESS AND HE CHOSE THE DODGERS!”
We all know he didn’t go through the process. The issue was that Joel Wolfe played it wrong from the beginning. There was no pre-cut deal, but Roki was ALWAYS going to go to the Dodgers. To pretend otherwise is both insulting to our intelligence and condescending from the mouthpiece.
All that said, I still love your writing and analysis. Keep it up!
Even if you are 95% sure you have made a choice, an intelligent person will check out the other employment options. It’s called due diligence and rules out the possibility that there is something in the other 5%. People do that all the time. It prevents the person asking themselves “I wonder what the other place was about”. Why wonder when with a bit of extra work, you don’t have to wonder. Leave him alone. The fans create the circus. He was just being professional and smart.
This still feels like conjecture to me. How open was Roki to non-Dodgers teams, in his heart of hearts? We have no idea.
Did he have some Dodgers preference before this whole process? I don’t know, but is that actually a problem?
Well, you cited an ex-teammate and FO execs essentially saying the deal was predetermined. This isn’t court, they’re not innocent until proven guilty. There are clearly enough signs something happened that they’re investigating again. It’s not the fact he wanted to sign with them – obviously that’s his right. But to have other teams essentially waste time and resources and perhaps hold off on making other moves because they thought they had a legitimate chance is inexcusable. I don’t know how you prove this as there’s likely nothing written or documented, but it seems more likely than not it was prearranged. Doesn’t seem speculative at all. There would be more mental gymnastics involved in trying to imagine it didn’t happen.
All really good points.
I share your opinion that it’s *his* choice to sign with the Dodgers. I don’t think that’s what people are wholly upset about. I think the backlash is that others are trying to make us feel like (as you said) it was NOT “more likely than not it was prearranged.”
Heard from someone with the dodgers and he confirmed it was a deal from the beginning seeing as he and Ohtani share an agent. Intentionally leading others to wait it out hoping for a chance? Would think the runner up would sign flaherty but they just not trust him
Investing time and resources in courting Roki was voluntary though. Any exec who was certain they had zero chance should’ve sat out. That some didn’t is proof they felt they had a non-zero chance.
while you’re revamping the app, please consider revamping login protocols. I get logged out pretty frequently, if not every time I close and reopen. thanks. (p s. this is my Android but I have same issue on work iPhone)
I’ll second this comment.
We will indeed! We will also be inviting people to beta test, so that we can hopefully iron things like that out before it’s available to everyone.
Third(?) this. I don’t even see notifications when logged in on the ios app. Not sure if the bell is in a different place or not but I am forced to use the mobile website on my phone instead (which hasn’t been a problem until recent frequent log outs)
I appreciate the description of how you evaluate sources. Perhaps for the reporters who are prone to error *cough*Nightengale*cough* you can call out the source in the headline or at the start of the post so we can start raising our eyebrows right away.
This is a sad day in Pirates history
Former Pirates pitching coach, Bobby Cuellar died yesterday . He was only 72
My condolences to his family
Responding to Dream and the conversation about our preferred vehicles
I was always a Mustang guy, having owned 5 in my life
Always either an 8 cylinder ( 289) or a 5 liter. Never an automatic transmission
My first car was a 1966 Mustang with a 3 speed transmission and a 289-2 barrel carburetor
My next Mustang was a 99 5 liter with a 5 speed transmission
Next a 2013 Mustang GT Convertible
5 liter with a 5 speed transmission
This past October I sold a 2012 Mustang GT convertible with a 6 speed transmission
It was my favorite as it only had 11500 original miles on it and was in mint condition
I sold it because in the 3 years I owned it I only put 1100 miles on it and someone else needed to drive it.
In 2020 I bought a 2020 Ford F 150 supercab and it will be the last vehicle I ever buy
Duh
I forgot about the 2017 Mustang GT coupe with a 5 liter engine and 6 speed manual transmission
Only women drive sports cars with an automatic transmission
Who will sign outfielder Jurickson Profar? I am praying he will sign with the Houston Astros. They need to update their outfielders and they need a Lefthanded bat.
A two year with an opt out with Detroit would make sense .
Flare isn’t going to get remotely what he wants because at some point, he’s going to need more surgery.
Im happy for him that he got to where he did and was good last year. But my guess almost every team views him has an injury risk which is why a high dollar, long term deal is off the table.
I wish him well. But he’s a 2 year with a vesting year guy at this point. Regardless of the dollars.