This week's mailbag covers how free agent righty Jack Flaherty might approach his current situation, whether Alex Bregman makes sense for the Nationals, accusations of the Dodgers having a predetermined deal for Roki Sasaki, low-cost right field options for the Pirates, how the Giants could fit in a bat, a comparison of Jordan Montgomery, Taijuan Walker, and Marcus Stroman, why the Twins collapsed, and much more.
Lance asks:
It's somewhat surprising to see Jack Flaherty kind of iced out, up to this point, in free agency given the urgency and value placed on quality starting pitching. Would he be in line for a 'better' contract if he opted for a long-term (5-yr) contract at a lower AAV than expected/preferred versus opting for a short-term contract that could see him saddled with a Qualifying Offer next offseason?
I'm seeing a bit of a Carlos Rodon parallel here. Rodon had an awesome breakout 2021 with the White Sox and hit the market without a qualifying offer, but with a dubious health track record. So he took two years and $44MM from the Giants with an opt-out, had an even better season, got the QO, and still landed a $162MM deal.
Rodon's Giants contract came after the lockout, and that was an unorthodox winter for all free agents. But he was only 29 at the time, and I imagine he had lower-AAV longer-term offers like you mentioned for Flaherty. If so, he made himself a lot of money by not taking that type of deal.
That worked out so well for Rodon because he dominated in 2022. Flaherty would need to stay healthy and pitch well in 2025 to get the $100MM+ deal he's likely seeking. He doesn't turn 30 until October, so he's in a good position to take a short-term deal (with opt-outs if it's multiyear) and go back to the market even with the QO. If he really wanted to be strategic, he could sign with a team that is likely to trade him at the deadline, and dodge the QO again. If Flaherty's 2025 is decent but not great, he could also consider accepting a QO.
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in other words, the Bucs are going the cheapest route which has become the norm for this franchise
Bringing in players who can’t hit their own weight
Counting on never has beens or never will bees to play right field
And all by the tightest wad owner in baseball
Had a friend that worked in video scouting in the minors for them and he said the owner still drove around in a 2005 junker, but either way point being as long as Nutting owns the pirates they will not spend money and that is sad for one of baseballs oldest and most storied teams.
I think the Sasaki thing isn’t anything more complicated than he only wanted to play for the Dodgers. Wolfe doesn’t have to be lying to say ‘I think these things are true but we didn’t talk about them’, which is what he said about Sasaki’s preferences.
Is that anti-competitive? A little. But what can you do? The only way to fix it is some complicated international draft.
What could the Dodgers have offered him so far in advance that it would’ve mattered? There isn’t anything secret about the estimated amount of money they could spend, the roster, the player development, endorsement opportunities, etc.
I don’t like it because I wanted my team to sign him, They didn’t and now I hope all his Chipotle orders get delivered cold.
Good points. Plus, if an international draft were in place and Sasaki knew he had no choice over his team, he might then have waited until he’s 25.
Rather than tie revenue sharing to improvement record-wise (which is inherently random), I’d rather see owners split the revenue share pot to direct team payments and then a “player pool”, which any team can use to pay for QO players.
It would cover the first year of payments (CBA value) for a QO player contract, and in doing so, would soften the blow of losing draft picks and international FA money, incentivize signing QO players quickly (the pool is limited, so first come, first served) and potentially help lower revenue teams sign quality free agents.
Teams paying tax (or teams whose payrolls are too low) can’t access the QO player pool, only teams that would normally receive revenue share.
Yes, interesting! Not too different from the Competitive Balance Subsidy we talked about on the pod:
mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/mlbtr-podcast-debating-…
Teams that are unwilling to spend their share of revenue to improve their respective teams should be punished by a series of penalties
First time, loss of draft picks
Second time, reduced revenue
Third time, no revenue
No one’s paying Flaherty what he wants. No one.
Even in 2024 he had 14 very good starts followed by 14 bad ones, where his HR allowed rate was 1.78 per 9, i.e. horrendous. An illusory 3.43 ERA but a 4.29 FIP, followed by an abysmal postseason where all by himself he nearly pitched the Dodgers OUT of the 2024 postseason—giving up 18 ER in 22 innings.
It took Rodon coming in 5th and 6th in the Cy Young vote in two seasons to get a big deal. Flaherty doesn’t have even one season since 2019 that’s close to what Rodon did in 2021-2022, and look at how Rodon’s pitched since then.
Good point about Flaherty looking at something like the 2/44m deal Rodon signed with the opt out after the first season, albeit scaled to
a) Flaherty’s lesser performance in 2024, and
b) the increase in the cost of competent or better SP.
I wonder if Flaherty would accept an incentive-laden contract with the Angels for a few years with mutual opt outs after year one and two? I’m sure he wouldn’t prefer “mutual” opt outs but he may have to consider that soon.
I have a nit to pick about your unqualified statement that Lamonte Wade “has no platoon issues.” I like him as a player/hitter, but the fact is that he has been give very few opportunities to face lefty pitchers over his 6 year MLB career, and he did absolutely terribly against lefties for most of those years from 2019-2022. In 2023, he improved against LHP but only to an average 100 wRC+ in 81 PAs.
Despite that improvement, he was only allowed 43 PAs against LHP in 2024. In that small sample, he did have a wRC+ of 143, but that was an uncharacteristic performance and it did not result in his team treating him as something other than a platoon hitter. It would be nice if he was given more opportunities and continued to hit well against lefties in the future, but to state that he has no platoon issues is inaccurate.
You’re right. 124 PA against lefties over the last two years isn’t really enough to draw that conclusion, and he was shielded quite a bit against lefties (possibly tougher ones) during that time. Good point.
As to deferrals having to be accounted for, I was watching David Samson’s podcast and he said that after the initial showing they had the money, MLB never took further notice of it.
One thing to add about the Twins season. Prior to the All Star Game, they had the benefit of having faced the woeful White Sox 13 times with a 12-1 record against them. They also went 6-1 against the lowly A’s in the first half of the season, while going 3-0 versus the Angels, 2-1 against the Rockies and 2-1 versus the Nationals. That 25-4 record against the various 90+ loss teams in the early part of the season made the team look better than it was.
The Twins only had 6 games against 90+ loss teams down the stretch (2-1 vs the Angels and 1-2 vs the Marlins), and the tougher competition likely played a factor in their end-of-season decline.
Vagiants are a fourth place team at best! A total rebuild is what they need but they’re content at being .500 at best! Dodgers, Padres and Dbacks clearly head and shoulders above them!
If you want a conspiracy theory about Sasaki, how about this: Dodgers, Sasaki, and Chiba Lotte Marines agreed to set this in motion when Sasaki threatened to go directly to MLB when he was 18.
Marines get a few years of his service and a little money instead of none, and then look generous when they let him go.
Sasaki gets to play in Koshien tournament and sign with a quality West coast team that has a history of 2018 international amateur corruption (never resolved after Federal grand jury indictment).
Dodgers get their pitcher for next to nothing relatively speaking.
MLB didn’t know and obviously no one is talking. MLB may be asking the wrong questions, focusing on 2024 rather than 2019.
Wade is consistently platooned. Not sure what you mean by no platoon issues.