This week's mailbag gets into Alex Bregman's possible landing spots, Boston's failure to add a right-handed bat, potential contracts for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker, Jarred Kelenic's trade value, the Tigers' relatively quiet offseason, the Marlins' rebuild, and much more.
Mark asks:
Logically, which team makes the most sense to sign Alex Bregman? I see awkward fits in HOU and BOS. And while TOR has a logical fit roster-wise, DET just makes the most sense to me. A need for veteran leadership on a young team, need for a 3B, and room on their payroll. I'm not a DET fan, but an STL fan who wants to find a team for Nolan Arenado, which I doubt happens until Bregman signs! Thanks.
Troy asks:
Big Astros fan here, what is your feeling about where Bregman goes? I'd love to have him back with the team but to me it may not be a good fit anymore with the other moves that have already been made, plus with a win now team such as this I'd rather them take the money they saved trading Pressly and get a true outfielder.
On Tuesday, Astros GM Dana Brown said, "I would mostly say it’s all internal conversations as to what we would like to do in terms of Bregman." Asked a few days earlier whether the door is shut, Brown hesitated and replied, "I would say it's cracked." At another point he said it's a "long shot."
On Monday, Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Bregman "maintains interest from five teams and is no closer to a decision now than before Pressly’s departure." They added, "All winter, sources have indicated Astros owner Jim Crane is unwilling to pay the tax for a second consecutive season." Estimates have the Astros' CBT payroll at $4.86MM shy of the first tax threshold, or $4.68MM short.
Crucially, the Athletic reporters said the Astros' six-year, $156MM offer to Bregman "remains on the table." If that's true, then Crane absolutely is willing to go over the tax threshold again, since Bregman could theoretically just accept their offer right now.
It seems fair to guess that the Astros will not be increasing their offer much if at all. In our early November contract predictions, we gave Bregman the Kris Bryant contract: seven years, $182MM. Bryant, however, was about nine months younger than Bregman will be on Opening Day this year. Plus, Bryant had to join a poorly-run, typically non-competitive team to get his maximum contract.
I don't see why Scott Boras wouldn't just accept the Astros' offer. It's true: if he finds Bregman a bigger offer elsewhere, he wins. I'm not sure Bregman would be happier; I don't know what's going on in his head. But accepting $156MM to stay in Houston would hardly be a disappointment, and it'd still be more money than Matt Chapman received on his recent extension.
Dana Brown might have a great poker face, but I saw nothing to indicate he's bluffing and a deal is right around the corner. On the other hand, if that Astros' offer is indeed on the table, one word from Bregman and the deal could be done.
It's true, the fit is mildly awkward now that the Astros have Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes. But as MLBTR's Steve Adams has said, it's really not crazy to take one of the game's worst defensive second basemen in Altuve and stick him in left field to make the pieces fit. Plus, it wouldn't be surprising to see Yordan Alvarez miss a month or age start to catch up with Walker (34 in March) or Altuve (35 in May). The odds that one of these guys gets hurt are pretty strong.
So I do still like the Astros as the best fit for Bregman, but let's look at the other suitors.
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If Bregman truly feels he should get more than $156M over 6 years and the Astros won’t budge on that offer in terms of extra years or dollars, then it doesn’t matter if the offer stands.
And lets say Detroit wants to make a splash, wants to offer Bregman the chance to be the Franchise Player of the Tigers for the time being and would go to say, 7 years/$210M or something- I don’t see how this is a choice.
Either you want to compete a bit more than you want to make money, or you want to make money a bit more than you want to compete.
Which is it?
Because the two options are a pretty simple this or that for Bregman, at this point.
It matters because if the offer doesn’t stand then he cant take the offer anymore. Also, if the offer doesn’t stand, then who is to say any team is offering 7 years, or even 6 years anymore.
I highly doubt the Tigers are offering 7 years 210.
Bregman is just being greedy at this point. As an Astros fan I’m fine with him signing the Bryant contract with a bad team, since money seems to be his only priority at this point.
FRL – This is a classic case of confirmation bias. Bregman is looking to Boras, and Scott is convincing him he can get what he’s looking for because Scott has gotten many other players what they wanted.
If I was Houston, I wouldn’t budge on my offer.
If I was Detroit, I wouldn’t budget on my offer.
If I was Toronto, I would withdraw my offer – especially if it’s 6 years – and go all out for Alonso instead.
Bregman has always been viewed as a jerk, not surprising considering his involvement and closeness to Cora.
It’s more complicated than just the number because the bottom line matters too. Players are taxed in a complicated manner, with each game location played entitled to the tax.
But even if we oversimplified, at a base level half of that 156m offer in TX isn’t subject to state income tax. That’s 78m state tax free. In BOS for example, you pay a 5% base tax plus an extra 4% millionaires tax on amounts above $1m. Over the life of the deal, thats about a $7m haircut off the top, before you realize that in thr AL east you also play far more games against the Yankees and Jays per year than you would in a different division, adding their higher tax burdens as well.
So just from income tax perspectives, it could cost easily a good $10m plus in value differences to the bottom line, and that’s before figuring in cost of living differences to maintain residence in one city over another.
My gut instinct is that there’s a handful of offers than when they crunched the net value on them after costs/expensies are all very similar, but, the player doesn’t understand why the more expensive areas/clubs are valuing him so much more and theyre trying to leverage things to pull the offer value up in a lower cost market so the player doesn’t feel ‘undervalued’ by the new team compared to the base dollars being thrown around.
It’s ADORABLE that you think the rich pay anything close to even one-third the stated tax rates.
The top 1% of earners pay 50% of all income taxes collected.
#s that matter most to’spro athletes are years/total $ bc thats what gets printed in the news.
dugmet – No offense but you kinda sound like the guy in yesterday’s deferrals comments who insisted Ohtani could have gotten $70M annually right away but agreed to deferrals out of the goodness of his heart. LOL!
Players who choose Boras as an agent are all about as much net income as possible. Taxes are absolutely a factor, going back to ARod choosing the Rangers because there’s no state tax.
Taking the money and going to Detroit would indicate he was impressed with how they swept out his Astros and what a great job Hinch was doing
Ready to market shirts in SD.
“I’m down with the CBT oh you know me!”
Such a fan of the CBT!
Hey Padres fans, are you down with the CBT?
Going to be fun to explain the CBT to casuals when they ask where and why Profar and Kim are gone.
Really going to enjoy conversing with Padres fans at games about the CBT, market size, debt service rules and a little about the TV deal.
Going to love explaining to the youngsters with their gloves and HSK and Profar jerseys about the CBT constraints when they’re asking what happened to HSK and Jurickson.
Going to be a blast!
If anyone was offering 7/210 to him he would have signed already. The facts of the matter are that no team out there thinks that’s in any way a reasonable contract to offer him.
Ken – Boras typically doesn’t end the bidding until the offers stop increasing. If he was offered $210M I guarantee Boras would have given other teams the opportunity to top it.
I would love for Houston to pull their offer, that would motivate Bregman to make a decision.
Whoever signs him will regret it.
Depends on the term. He’s a good athlete, good plate discipline, able to hit to all fields, and a plus defender. I don’t want him for 6 or 7 years either, but if somebody is able to convince him to sign for 3 or 4 (going short on years might be able to push him into the AAV he’s looking for – I think if he was going to get that AAV for 6 or 7 he would’ve already) he should hold up just fine.
An interesting tidbit from looking at his batted ball profile: His hard hit rate has actually been going up in recent years, but it hasn’t translated to much because it turned into too many grounders and fly balls. I barely watched any Astros in 2024 so I can’t say for sure from watching firsthand, but pair that with the fact that his K rate stayed within career norms (though did go up slightly), his BB rate pretty much cut in half, his barrel rate was normal, and his swing rate jumped way up – all those things taken together sound to me like a guy who was pressing and trying to do too much. His production was lesser but the only big changes I see in some of the underlying indicators were in the swing and walk rates, so I believe narratives of him beginning to rapidly deteriorate are overblown. In my opinion I see enough of a well rounded player who can remain a 4-ish WAR player for a few more seasons, as long as health permits.
I watch the AL West games a lot and Bregman will make any team he is on better. If Houston wants to ace the ALWC, they should sign him.
Dirty – My understanding is Bregman walked a lot less because Houston’s offense really struggled last year so they wanted him to focus less on getting on base.
They scored 87 fewer runs than 2023, falling to 11th.
Tucker missed most of the season, Alvarez missed 15 games, Altuve had a horrible season (for him), so Bregman changed his hitting approach.
100% way too much to pay for a player that will most likely give you one or two years of average or slightly above average numbers.
butch779988 —
I don’t know why you’d bet against Bregman, even if you think he’s declining a bit. It’s the years that a team has to negotiate that’s the major issue, because I believe—based on his career—that Bregman is an asset for the next 2-3 years.
I think that is main issue teams looking at a 2-3 year window not a 5 year guarantee.
Bregman’s best bet might be to take a Matt Chapman-type deal from last winter with an opt-out and hope for a better season to opt-out. As team’s financials settle as more teams their tv contracts settled there will potentially be more teams willing to spend next winter
Why would more teams be willing to spend next year?
Local RSN TV money *isn’t* going to get better. *Ever.* This isn’t “just” about the Diamond Sports bankruptcy. With a few exceptions (the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Cubs) the days of RSNs are rapidly nearing the end regardless of who owns them. MLB quite clearly knows this, which is one of the reasons they were/are skeptical Diamond Sports is going to remain viable for very long.
The problem is MLB owners have never thought of themselves and their franchise as only one part of a larger whole like NFL owners, and therefore what’s best for the league as a whole is also what’s best for them.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Nats, O’s and the Cubs at least partially own their RSNs. The Dodgers own 50% of SportsNet, and that deal pays them $334 million per year through 2038. They are *not* giving that up so MLB can create a streaming package that includes the entire league. Ditto for the Yankees ($100+ million a year), Mets (at least $88 million a year) and Cubs (around $100 million a year.)
Teams financials will “settle” but they’re not going to improve. The local TV money is what it is for most teams. It’s just going to get worse. The best everybody can hope for is it doesn’t fall off a cliff quickly.
Interestingly, today the Rangers launched their RSN which, funny enough, will be called RSN.
Yes, they did. But it will still be a drop in revenue for them. This just gets them off the “will they still be around next year?” train that DSG has become.
The whole 2023 saga of AT&T SportsNet is sometimes forgotten amid the focus on DSG.
Seemed telling that Warner Brothers Discovery was so eager to get out of the RSN business – and saw such little value from trying to sell its RSN’s to a 3rd-party – that it threatened to put the 3 RSN’s it fully owned into Chapter 7.
The Mariners are good example of the problems with the RSN issue. They are the only team that owns 100 percent of theirs. They have lost several large local teams that broadcast on it. One being the Kraken.They own the rights to the northwest. I live on east side of state and refuse to pay ridiculous cable or satellite rates to get RSN. When a game is on national TV it is blocked. MLB baseball is not a option. With people cutting the cord it is impacting ratings. One of the main reasons they use for controlling salaries.
Ultimately, while the Astros remain a logical fit, the article might underestimate how much Bregman and Boras are willing to wait for a better offer.
Alex, ask not for whom the Tigers bang the trash can, the Tigers bang the trash can for thee.
It takes someone particularly obsessive-compulsive to maintain that database of Tommy John surgeries (by hand)
Bregman will end up reuniting with Hinch in Detroit. 4 yrs/$115m or thereabouts, with opt out after 2.
Or with 2-3 player options based on games played for his 6-7 year deal.
Detroit Tigers make the most sense if Bregman wants to play for a contender and be a leader of the great young core of players emerging in Detroit.
Has Bregman seen that some services rate the Tigers farm system #3 in all of MLB?!
After graduating 3 young players to their team this past year, the Tigers still have 6 players rated as #1 level outstanding prospects and 4 rated as #2 some of whom will be upgraded to #1s next year.
The Tigers went on a torrid run after the All Star break finishing the season with a 36-11 run?
And Bregman has a great relationship with Tigers Manager AJ Hinch from their time together with the Astros.
Bregman and Boros made be “overplaying their hand in this negotiation.
If they have doubts, then sign a deal with opt outs after year 2 or 3.
The job and offer could be pulled if and when some of those highly rated, young Tigers prospects start to wow in Spring Training.
At that point, the Tigers may just cut bait and pull their offer to Bregman and let their top young kids take over @ major league minimum.
The Tigers should already know if they have minor leaguers about to break into the majors and obviate the need for and cost of Bregman. ST PAs against a very mixed bag of ST pitchers won’t tell them anything.
ST rarely settles anything teams haven’t already decided on. You can play your way OUT of a job, but only rarely play your way into a job in ST.
Defensively, the Tigers don’t really have a good option for 3B. Kreidler is the best glove, but without a bat. Vierling is probably next best, but its a bit of a drop off. Hes also an excellent OF so his value doesnt get maximized when playing 3B. Jung is trying to learn the position but his arm is questionable. McKinstry doesn’t look good there. He’s better up the middle. Ibanez can fake it. They need someone who can p!ay 3B.
McKinstry is probably the best defensive option the Tigers have at 3rd….and the worst bat. Vierling is merely OK at 3rd and around average at the plate. Jung, is the worst of the 3 defensively at 3rd. He should be at 2nd. However, if patient, his bat is probably going to end up the best.
Bregman is a solid player but not elite. He’s not worth 6yr 150 million.
Do you really consider $25MM “elite” money? I suggest you look at the players making that per year and reconsider. If the Tigers gave him $25MM per, it would make him the 2nd highest behind Javy.
$25M for one season is not the same as $150M/6. Duration counts.
Kelenic will either be traded or demoted soon; teams are running out of patience.
Mariners figured that out. Lots of talent definitely mind games
Kelenic is a head case, need to fix his mind first.
I’m beginning to think that the Astro’s offer is out there to keep his other offers high. I don’t think it’s a real offer at those numbers or else he’d have taken it.
I think if you’re bidding against the Astro’s you’re really just bidding against yourself
One thing I’ve only seen mentioned in one article is that Bregman turned down the Astros’ offer because the AAV was 26 million. In the last two years in Houston, Bregman was paid 30.5 million. He viewed their offer as a pay cut. Just to match that AAV, it would take 6/183.
Or 4/122
This new layout sucks, change it back.
Not a fan… in my opinion a real tool… in 18 the Astros led by AB really did Nate E raw with putting game he got shelled vs them earlier in year as Nate warmed up… no one with the exception of Mrs E was happier when he struck his azzzzzzz out his last at bat of 18!!!
Boston has not failed to add an impact right hand bat. IT is a calculated risk designed to add to the bottom line. With the expanded playoff in MLB, getting to the playoff with younger less expensive players is JH’s goal. As revenue figures come in , one understands that this is a business. We would love our ownership group to have the same passion level as us fans. Welcome to the new reality . Highest ticket prices, and a payroll somewhere in the middle of the pack. Sign Buehler and Chapman, and let’s see how far we get. Once fans stop buying tickets and merchandise, they ownership will wake up. Until then, a different member of management will attempt to gaslight the public. Kennedy this past off season. Werner the year before. “we’re comfo rtable going over the CBT” They’re comfortable staying well under it too.
“Plus, Bryant had to join a poorly-run, typically non-competitive team to get his maximum contract.”
Absolute truck stick job towards the Rockies.
Bregman fits best on the Yankees, where there is a gaping hole at 3B… not sure why they aren’t involved. (Or are they… *cue Dr. Evil laugh*)