The Mets are signing left-hander A.J. Minter, reports Andy Martino of SNY. The terms of the deal, which is pending a physical, is worth $22MM over two years, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The Bledsoe Agency client can opt out after the first year, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Mets have roster vacancies and won’t need to make a corresponding move.
Minter, 31, has been a strong performer in recent years. However, there is at least some uncertainty due to his health. He went on the injured list twice in 2024 due to left hip inflammation and eventually underwent surgery in August.
It’s unclear exactly when Minter will be fully healthy again but the surgery doesn’t seem to have hurt his market. He’s been connected to the Blue Jays, Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox over the past couple of months and now has a strong pact with the Mets. Perhaps that indicates clubs aren’t too worried about his recovery from the hip procedure impacting him in 2025.
Just looking at Minter’s results, the robust interest makes plenty of sense. From 2020 to 2024, the lefty made 267 relief appearances, allowing 2.85 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 30.1% of batters faced while limiting walks to a 7.8% clip. He was a key relief arm for Atlanta, who let him earn 16 saves and 92 holds in that time. Even while pitching through the hip problems in 2024, he managed to throw 34 1/3 innings with a 2.62 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate.
Despite the hip surgery, it was fair to expect Minter to be one of the most popular relief arms in this winter’s market. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $16MM pact but almost all pitchers have been outearning their projections this winter, with Minter no exception. He gets a $22MM guarantee and also an opt-out, meaning he will have the ability to become a free agent again next winter if he demonstrates his health and has a strong season.
The Mets are a sensible landing spot for Minter, as their bullpen is in a state of flux. At the end of the 2024 season, they saw Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith and Phil Maton become free agents.
The club also came into the winter particularly shorthanded in terms of left-handed relief. Raley was one such member on the 2024 club, though he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of May, well before he became a free agent. Jake Diekman was released during the season. Josh Walker was traded around the same time. Alex Young was non-tendered at the end of the year.
All of that left the Mets with Danny Young as their only southpaw reliever on the roster, so an addition made plenty of sense. They signed Génesis Cabrera to a minor league and have been connected to free agents like Tanner Scott and Tim Hill. Signing either Scott or Hill could still be an option but the lefty contingent of the Mets bullpen now looks much stronger with Minter in it. Per Mike Puma of The New York Post, the Mets are unlikely to continue pursuing Scott with Minter now on board.
For the Mets, perhaps this is yet another move away from their relationship with Pete Alonso. As recently as yesterday morning, it seemed possible that the Mets and Alonso would work something out. But reporting from yesterday afternoon indicating that the Mets didn’t want to have a prolonged staredown with Alonso. Since they had other players on their radar, they planned instead to move on and spread money around to various different players. In the past 24ish hours, they have agreed to new deals with Jesse Winker and now Minter.
The deal with Minter pushed the club’s payroll and competitive balance tax number up to $297MM and $293MM respectively, in the eyes of RosterResource. Last year, those numbers were $336MM and $346MM. If they are willing to get to similar levels in 2025, they still have lots of space to work with. That could be enough room to bring back Alonso but the Mets might also look to make further bullpen upgrades.
They are already between the third and four tiers of the CBT, which are $281MM and $301MM this year. As a third-time payor, they will be facing a tax of 95% for any more money they add up to the fourth line and a 110% rate for spending beyond it. Since Steve Cohen became owner of the team, the tax has never really seemed to be any kind of obstacle for the Mets.
LOL!!!
$22MM over two years,
Win-win deal
Youre surprised? Seems right in line with everything else this off season.
Yeah way too low for sure.
$43MM after tax!
little do they know that the Braves already paid Minter to pitch for the Mets and sabotage their bullpen.
Damn good signing. I may be more jelly of this than Soto, Metropolifans!
ohhhh that is good
Good for You AJ, hope it works out for YOU.
That’s a bold move
With an opt out. Good deal for both.
This dude ends up back in a Braves uniform before his playing days are over.
Oh wow. Amazing gift to see the future like that. If only you could place a bet on that somehow you’d be a billionaire. Lucky you. Thanks for letting us in on the secret info.
Lower K/9 and a much higher FIP last year, but the Mets desperately need bullpen help. This money plus Winker yesterday is almost $20 million spent on 2025. Have to believe the reports yesterday that the Mets have pivoted from Alonso.
@rct,
Minter had hip surgery last year – the injury likely accounts for the change you cited.
Pete Who? Great moves, Winker brings energy and swag, with Soto Mets have it going. Minter will be a set up man, pitch 7th or 8th inning. Still think Mets may still try to go for lefty Tim Hill, low cost move…. Also, Mets eat money trade Marte contract, for possible bullpen depth. Let’s Go Mets!
The Mets seem to be assuming Edwin Diaz is a contender’s closer, but I’d rather they were in the market for Tanner Scott than for Minter.
Does that necessarily take them out of Tanner Scott? I wouldn’t mind two lefties in the bullpen. I need to look up their splits against right handed hitters.
Mets desperately needed left handed pitching out of the pen
This is a start for sure
I like the signing
Definitely need another lefty
Maybe it is Scott
Yes, Mets need another lefty, Scott or Tim Hill, whoever they can get….
@Miken31 They’re roughly the same, 65 to 75 points better, career, on OPS against vs. LHH.
—Might also be that, given Diaz’s strong 2nd half, it just wouldn’t work to try to inveigle Scott aboard with a closer already on the team.
Jack
Yeah, I was just looking at the splits. I’m not sure how Scott feels about sharing the closer role or outright giving it to Diaz but I could see where that could certainly be a point of issue. Id love to have both and can see it benefiting both Scott and Diaz if they can look beyond being concerned what their individual save total will be. If not, Scott though, Minter is a good start, but they absolutely need to add at least another high end reliever. Honestly, I’d like to add another two but I don’t necessarily expect that.
+1 for inveigle.
Yeah I would think Scott would want to be the closer wherever he goes
@Miken31 you are 100% right. I couldn’t have said that any better myself
@Miken31 A Diaz-Scott tandem is the kind of pairing that can roll right over a postseason. I’d love to see it.
If that doesn’t work for the reasons we suspect, though, what do you think about David Robertson?
Tbh given Stearns habits I’ll be pleasantly surprised if after Minter the Mets add even one more reliever in the $8-10m AAV range, and I wouldn’t expect that to be on a multiyear deal, unfortunately, though after the fiasco of missing on 1/4m last offseason to Ottavino, Fujinami, and Diekman, maybe Stearns will unlimber and shoot a little higher in the pen?
Jack
I love David Robertson. The only thing that concerns me is you never know when an old guy like that can suddenly just lose it. There’s been no indication of that. But that would be my only concern is that he’s pitched so well at such an advanced age, if the wheels suddenly fell off. Again, no indication of that so I would definitely be open to that. We know he can pitch in New York as we’ve seen with the Yankees and the Mets. And I totally agree with you about the philosophy of Sterns with the bullpen. I’m not against what he’s done because I definitely think you can find some gems on the cheap and we know the fluctuation of many relievers. But I would think he would want to try to avoid having to constantly try to build a bullpen on the fly. The bullpen initially was terrible last season and it was rebuilt quite well during the season, but I think it would be nice to try and start the season with a little more certainty, as much as as possible with the bullpen.
Great points, Mike.
If the Mets had missed the 2024 postseason by a game or two, the long, long struggle to assemble a competent bullpen, a contender’s bullpen would have been the proximate cause.
As high variance as relievers tend to be in small samples of 50-60 innings, plus the fact that most of them are failed starters, it’s nonetheless possible to limit that uncertainty, particularly if you have more money to spend rather than less.
This is a good Mets team, but it’s not a great one. Those marginal wins in the 85-92 range are critically important, every win making it meaningfully more likely we see the postseason. I’d hate to see them fall short because of skimping on the pen or on the bench.
if i’m a met fan i would hope cohen’s desire to win takes precedence over stearns’ mid-budget “habits.” you don’t get extra points for winning with less money than the owner is willing to spend
Dasit
Yes, I still don’t understand why Stearns acts like he’s spending his own money. I understand about financial flexibility, but they could spend a lot more money and still have financial flexibility. I understand penalties of being over the luxury tax with getting knocked down in the draft and losing international pool money. Maybe that’s his concern but part of me gets concerned that he’s just trying to prove how smart he is with these low budget signings. Otherwise he’s a really smart guy who should use these finances more to his advantage, in my opinion.
I’d say it indicates Scott wants to close, not be set up relief.
Me too…
Who doesn’t think Diaz is a “contenders closer”??
Everyone paying attention, in 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024….
6.4 BB/9 career, postseason…
He didnt pitch in 2023. He was fine second half 2024, and was coming off a major injury so i cut him slack. His postseason overall has been very good, 0 runs in 7 of 8 appearances. Lots of walks, not a lot of hits, lots of K. Hes still one of the best closers in baseball.
This is why it’s taking so long for the relievers to get signed. They are going to get paid.
To a division rival no less.
If he’s healthy
Solid deal
22 mil is a lot, but Minter is familiar with the NLE (and vice versa). Mets need bullpen arms. This is a decent get.
I hope his hip is ok.
The medicals must look good. This is probably THE Mets big offseason bullpen signing. I don’t think they’re going to roll the dice on it any more than they have to.
Big bucks for a Minter. Scott loves that signing for sure!!!
Bank it!!!!
Another one correct
Now get David Robertson and the bullpen doesn’t look half-bad.
The Athletic projected Mets to have 7th best bullpen before they signed Minter
@D2323 I think you’re right about the need for one more big arm at the back end. DR seems like a Stearns kind of guy despite his age, or maybe because of it—Stearns picked up 3 relievers in the 2023-2024 offseason on one year deals at 4m each and they all bombed. Otto was 38 and Diekman was 37. Might be a lesson in there.
DR requires a one year deal, probably, has an issue (extreme dotage) that will tend to suppress his market, but it’s an issue that’s fairly superficial given the underlying performance in 2024.
Still, his HR suppression in 2024 looks a lot like good luck, and the Rangers home park played as an extreme pitchers park in 2024. Statcast also has his expected ERA at 3.19 for 2024. Add to that he’s turning 40 and he might well be nothing special in 2025, an ERA in the 3.40-3.60 range.
If the Mets are willing to spend $10m on another reliever they may well be better off going with a younger pitcher and accepting that a multiyear deal is probably both necessary and a better bet for someone 5, 8, 10 years younger at that AAV.
No Robertson, was on Marlins for half a year, a homerun magnet… pivot to younger reliever… at this point in his career he has zero consistency…
Excellent signing. Dude’s got an absolutely sick change up and an excellent arsenal across the board.
Great move by stearns. More coming
I think this tells us Scott is looking for $15-20 per year and probably 3-4 years.
@Trotski Makes sense. He’s limited by the BB rate going back up and by the K’s ticking down, but he’s the best arm on the market, has two consecutive seasons of great results, and a strong career health history. I’d guess because of those (fairly mild) negatives and the FIP jumping up by 3/4 of a run in 2024 he’s more in the 4/60m range than something like 4/76m or up.
Hard to know what the reliever market looks like this offseason, but Minter was projected in a lot of places incl MLBTR to get in the neighborhood of 2/16m. Instead he got 2/22m plus the value of the opt-out. That’s at least 50% more than he was projected for.
Decent move. Lots of familiarity within the division.
Jed Hoyer- Strike 37!
Seriously, Jed is just annoyingly sitting pat dumpster diving again.
Leclerc- Strike 38!
Jed’s much too busy doing important work. Like driving a guy who hasn’t been around for 25 years to the Cubs Convention while all the relievers get signed. Great to have a POBO who has his priorities in order and the best interests of the team in order. Atta Boy.
Great sign. Much cheaper than Scott and likely will be as effective. I think they will go hard for Bregman or Arenado at this point and then may trade a couple minor guys for starting pitching
I don’t see that. I think they’re pretty much rolling with this lineup outside of trying to dump Marte, and the longshot Vlad Jr trade.
Agreed. It’s an awkward window for the Mets, tough to straddle particularly after 2024 established the expectation that they’d continue to contend on their way to being a perennial juggernaut.
As tempting as it is to add Bregman, this is a team whose farm system is taking longer to generate a steady stream of talent than they probably expected after the 2022 season. Adding another 31 yo for 2025 is adding another 33-34 yo for 2027-28, just when you were hoping the farm system matured.
I think Stearns is taking the right approach, and as poorly as Baty’s done so far, between Baty and Mauricio the Mets should be able to muster 1-2 WAR in 2025 at 3B even if neither excels.
I don’t know if other people look at it this way, but I tend to see an expensive FA addition here not as adding 3-4 wins, but given the Mauricio-Baty floor of 1-2 wins, more like a 1 to 3 win addition for a $25-30m AAV. That’s a very high cost now, and every year until Bregman’s deal expires in 2030 or 2031.
11 MILL a year for a NON closer with some health concerns? Wow. Stupid money.
Well think about how much money the Yankees are choosing to pay at 110% over to guys like Brubaker, Effross, and Johnny Lasagna to continue rehabbing. Not even a given that they will step on a MLB mound while under contract.
Either you haven’t been paying attention to the relief market or you’re just trolling but either way you’re wrong here. It’s a good deal for both sides, objectively.
Better than 13MM for an almost 38 year old 1b that just had the worst year of his career.
Here again is a signing without a preceding rumor. Stearns FA doesn’t leak at all. Driving the NY writers, bloggers and WFAN bozos batsh*t crazy that they don’t have the glengarry leads. So they flagellate day after day on breadcrumbs Boras is putting out there.
And yet, we’ve gotten every bit of info on Soto and Alonso. I get that they’re higher profile. I think, to your point, Stearns FO only leaks what they want to leak.
You assume what your hearing about Alonso is what’s really going on behind the offices @ Citi Field there Von
It’s both impressive and, as a fan, annoying.
It’s Boras doing all the leaking as usual because it serves his agenda.
Creature – spot on. Amazed some folks fail to be clear eyed about this. It’s all in plain sight
Good he can give up late inning HR for NY now
This is the comment I was looking for lol. He cost the Braves at least 4 games last year with walkoffs or late innings cough-ups. He was lights out in 2023 however.
Another raspberry in the general direction of one Pete Alonso.
Did we ask the Padres fans if this is ok?
Pitching is LU-CRA-TIVE!
That is an absolutely massive AAV and guarantee for a guy with his numbers. Insanity.
He’s been around a 1 WAR pitcher the last 3-4 years depending what site you use. That’s about 9 mil AAV so it’s really not that much of a an overpay.
And the fact that he’s a lefty might add a g=bit to that standard AAV valuation.
@Trill At some point, you’ll need to accept that these are the standard salaries today. Otherwise, you’ll start sounding like the guys here constantly whining because they’re stuck in the baseball world from two decades or more ago.
Minter, 2022-2024:
11.2 K/9
2.5 BB/9
0.9 HR/9
6.9 H/9
1.041 WHIP
2.89 FIP
2.82 ERA
150 ERA+
The hip didn’t impair his rate stats and the surgery was successful. He’s as close to elite as you’re going to get without paying 18-20m a year, and the Mets appear to have reasonably decided that Diaz is their closer in 2025, so they can’t offer that role to another reliever.
Great signing. This probably takes them out of the running for Scott but him and Minter were my top two relievers that I wanted in the offseason. Finally a good pickup by Stearns. We still need 2 more above average relievers for this pen to be feasable. Outside of Winker and Soto, this has been my third favorite move
Really nice addition to that bullpen.
The fact it takes him away from a division rival is a bonus.
Braves don’t need him; they got Jesse Chavez.
The problem for the Mets is not the money penalties but the other penalties being over 281. Stearns said so himself earlier in the year regarding those penalties.
I hate hate hate this move. I actually think he’s worth this contract if he’s healthy. But the thing I hate most is he is a brave through and through and seeing him in a met uniform is just the worst imagine one can possibly imagine. Not quite as bad a Tom Glavine but lord…
I am so glad they poached him from the Braves; Great to see him in a Mets uniform. Great signing and look!
Still hope the Polar Beer signs somewhere else!
@bravesfan,
I’m a Mets fan but I feel for you. Always so hard to see a homegrown, long term successful player from a favorite team sign with another, especially division rival.
Daniel Murphy to the Nats – that was rough and he owned the Mets.
Braves in shambles lol. That team has no chance this season.
@Lou Sassoll Not an old team, they’re but one year removed from a team 125 OPS+, which was a hair under that of the 1927 Yankees, suffered a spate of nasty injuries in 2024 that don’t give evidence of lingering…
Unlike the Cardinals, who just had to keep Wainwright around until he exploded, the Braves sensibly moved on fr the 40 yo Morton before he turned into a pumpkin. Smith-Shawver will be around most of the year. Fried’s a lot to lose, but it’s not peak Fried they let walk, but the 3 WAR version with the hinky arm. —And they won 89 when a lot of things went awry.
They’re serious contenders.
I wish him and the Mets the very worst of luck.
His WHIP last year was quite excellent
David Stearns isn’t messing around with Pete any more… Maybe he will let him come back for 1/25.
The problem with going into the fourth tier again for Cohen is not paying it. It’s the penalties.