Latest On Tanner Scott’s Market

Tanner Scott remains unsigned as the top reliever in a slow-moving free agent class. The hard-throwing southpaw and right-hander Jeff Hoffman have been the best bullpen arms available all winter.

There hasn’t been much recent chatter on Scott, though that doesn’t appear to reflect a quiet market. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the All-Star closer is expected to receive interest from multiple big-market teams. Cotillo’s MassLive colleague Sean McAdam indicates that Scott could receive something like $20MM annually on what would surely be a multi-year contract.

The Dodgers have been most frequently linked to Scott. He was reportedly on the Yankees’ radar before they orchestrated the Devin Williams trade. The Athletic’s David O’Brien adds another team to the mix, reporting that the Braves have done background work on Scott. Cotillo indicates that the Red Sox are exploring the top of the reliever market generally, though that report doesn’t firmly link them to Scott in particular.

If Scott were to hit the $20MM AAV marker, he’d join rare company. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there are only two relievers who have signed for that amount — and those each come with asterisks. Nick Martinez accepted a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the Reds this offseason. That’s a one-year commitment and Martinez is capable of starting. The only reliever to land $20MM+ on a long-term deal is Edwin Díaz. He signed a five-year, $102MM extension with the Mets two seasons ago. That came with upwards of $26MM in deferred money, though, dropping the net present value closer to $93MM. By that measure, Díaz’s true average annual value could be in the $18-19MM range.

By measure of NPV, Josh Hader set a new standard for reliever contracts with his five-year, $95MM term last winter. Hader has a longer track record than Scott, so it’d be a surprise if the latter got five years and an AAV around $20MM. A four-year deal should be in play, though. MLBTR predicted Scott for a four-year, $56MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. McAdam’s report may indicate that the bidding has pushed beyond that number.

Scott brings rare velocity from the left side. He averaged 97 MPH on his four-seamer and sat in the 88-89 range with his slider. Scott has topped 70 innings with an earned run average below 2.50 in consecutive seasons. He fired 72 innings of 1.75 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate between the Marlins and Padres last year. Scott added 4 1/3 scoreless frames with seven strikeouts in October, including a handful of punchouts of Shohei Ohtani during their Division Series matchup with the Dodgers.

The price tag complicates the Braves’ pursuit but doesn’t necessarily rule them out. Atlanta’s only free agent activity this offseason has been a trio of low-cost split contracts. They’ve rearranged the Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López contracts and offloaded the final two years of the Jorge Soler deal. Whether that’s to reallocate payroll space to a major acquisition or a reflection that they’re simply working with a tight budget remains to be seen.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves weren’t wedded to staying below the luxury tax threshold. Atlanta has paid the tax in consecutive seasons. RosterResource estimates their CBT number for next season around $218MM. That puts them $25MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. They could sign Scott and remain narrowly below the tax line. Atlanta could lose A.J. Minter to free agency. They’ll be without Joe Jiménez for most or all of next season. Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee project as the top setup arms in front of closer Raisel Iglesias.