7:28PM: Alonso and the Mets “are said to be making progress on at least the structure of a proposed deal that’s expected to be for three years and include at least one opt out,” according to Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman. “While the sides appear amenable to that short-term structure,” Sherman and Heyman write, there’s still “a gap between offer and counteroffer,” with specific figures not mentioned.
5:15PM: The Mets and Pete Alonso have seemingly been in a staredown for quite a while and it’s still unclear who will blink first. Reporting from last week indicated that Alonso’s camp had pitched a short-term deal with opt-outs to the Mets but Alonso remains unsigned. Reports from both Andy Martino of SNY and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggest a pivot point is coming where the Mets may move on to plans that don’t involve Alonso having a place on the 2025 team.
It has long seemed possible that Alonso’s free agency could go this way. Last winter, the “Boras Four” lingered in free agency well into the new year and eventually settled for contracts below expectations. Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery all signed deals that only were guaranteed for two or three years, though with each player having the chance to opt-out after each season. There were reasons to expect Alonso might follow them down this road.
Alonso reportedly turned down an extension offer of seven years and $158MM back in the summer of 2023. He still had one arbitration season to go at that point, ultimately making $20.5MM in 2024, so he effectively turned down $137.5MM for six free agent years. There had been reports that Alonso was looking at the contracts of Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson at targets. Freeman signed for $162MM over six years, though with deferrals. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension when he was still two years away from free agency.
But Alonso isn’t as well-rounded of a player as those two. While his power is elite, his plate discipline and defense are both below Freeman and Olson. He’s also coming off a couple of relative down years. He had a career batting line of .261/.349/.535 and a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 122 wRC+ over the two most recent campaigns. That’s still strong production but it will naturally concern a club thinking about making a long-term investment.
Alonso is still unsigned with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in less than a month. There is apparent willingness to pivot to a short-term deal but a deal still hasn’t come together. There is still more time, as Bellinger’s agreement came together in late February last year, Chapman’s in early March. However, today’s reports both point to the Mets starting to consider other options.
The Mets have had a front office shakeup since offering that extension to Alonso. Billy Eppler was the general manager at that time but David Stearns is now running the club’s baseball operations department. Stearns never really dedicated a lot of resources to first base, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. A three-year, $16MM deal for Eric Thames was his biggest investment in the position for the Brewers. Milwaukee non-tendered Chris Carter after he hit 41 home runs in 2016, rather than pay him a projected $8.1MM salary.
Stearns is working with more resources now that he’s with the Mets but has continued to be measured in how he uses those resources, apart from the Juan Soto deal. Instead of signing top free agent starting pitchers, he has taken bounceback fliers on guys like Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning. He also signed Clay Holmes, hoping to get starting pitcher value for reliever prices.
The Mets do have some internal options for corner infield work. Mark Vientos had a great season in 2024, mostly playing third base, but his defense didn’t receive strong grades. It’s been suggested that he could be moved over to first base, with the hot corner then being open for a competition between guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. There’s some uncertainty in going down that road and there would be some sense in adding Alonso back into the mix, but it seems the Mets and Alonso’s camp can’t agree on a fair price.
Teams will naturally be attracted to a short-term deal as it lowers the chances of them being saddled with a player’s decline years, but the player usually looks to get a higher average annual value as a compromise. Bellinger’s deal guaranteed him $80MM but in frontloaded fashion, allowing him to opt out after one year with $30MM in his pocket or after two years with $60MM in the bank. Alonso is perhaps looking for something similar, which the Mets may not be keen on.
The Mets are set to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and RosterResource projects their CBT number at $276MM next year. Signing Alonso to something in the range of $25-30MM annually would push that close to the fourth and final tier of the tax, which is $301MM this year. The Mets would pay a 95% tax on spending from tier three to tier four, then a 110% tax for spending over the top line. As such, even employing Alonso for one year and then having him opt out would cost them something like $60MM. If he has a disappointing season and doesn’t opt out, as happened with Bellinger, they would be stuck with the deal for another year or two.
The Mets also stand to receive draft pick compensation if Alonso signs elsewhere. As a tax payor, their bonus pick wouldn’t be until after the fourth round. That’s not massively important in baseball terms but it’s not nothing and it would go away if they re-sign Alonso.
It’s a tricky calculation for the Mets to make with a franchise favorite, but it seems they are willing to play hard ball and move on to other options soon. Martino does mention that the Mets checked in with the Blue Jays about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also downplays the talks significantly, characterizing the fit as “fantasy baseball.” That aligns with public comments from Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins, who has often downplayed the likelihood of the Jays trading Guerrero or Bo Bichette.
Martino mentions a reunion with Jesse Winker or signing Anthony Santander as other possible pivots, though he adds that the latter is less likely to come to fruition. For Alonso, if he’s not destined to go back to Queens, he will have to do his own pivot. MLBTR recently looked at some of the clubs that could potentially sign him to a short-term deal, with the Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics and Tigers some of the options.
Should have taken the $ Pete
Boras strikes again.
Not sure Boras was his agent and whoever the agent is Pete could have said yes still right?
He wasn’t but regardless, neither was Stearns in charge. While we can’t go backwards, it would be nice to go back to see if there was an opportunity to compromise back then, Probably not given Pete’s attitude and possibility that he believed even then the all boats high tide theory and Soto’s pending 24 season ending free agency. No one knew how high it would get but he thought he was worth more based on his career at that point.
Pete didn’t educate himself. Maybe his agents failed him. Either way that was a offer if true you can’t turn down. He’s a 1 tool player. He can scoop but that’s not an additional tool. Doesn’t crush the ball.
He should have fought to keep a straight face and counterd for a bit more and said yes as fast as he could.
Pete employing Boras straight after turning the offer down, kind of indicates he wanted more….rather than negotiate. You don’t employ Boras for his ability to negotiate away anything.
“Boras Four” situation once again. This time Alonso & Bregman are paying the price for not signing earlier
Have they received bad advice from Boras or have they over valued their worth?
When, where & what they receive will shed more light on their free agency
I am seeing it reported on CBS Sports that Alonso hired Boras in October 2023, which is after the Mets made that offer and were rejected.
Almost hilarious to see how many of Boras’ guys have screwed the pooch
Conforto and Alonso, to name two.
Both had career worst years in a contract year.
Reminds me of when CHC made Anthony Rizzo an extension offer he turned down, and they decided to walk away. In the end it was the right thing to do, and Rizzo blamed everyone but himself. Sometimes both sides just don’t come to terms.
And to a greater degree….Baez and Bryant
He’ll sign a 3 year deal with opt outs in Toronto once the Jays trade Vladdy to the Mets
Ohhhh yes budddy I neeed the disappointment when this doesn’t happen
Pete needs to leave the Mets and go somewhere he is appreciated for the player and leader he is….
The hr derby
AAA
@Cambo
Isn’t it a little weird that the organism that boasts the multi- billionaire owner that just laid out $800 mil for A FA assassin who’s promoting we’re a family here in Queens is playing herbal with their home grown beloved star? Again, I know he turned down a $156 mil offer, but why play him so hard if “money ain’t a thang.” I wonder if they pulled that offer or if he would take it now?
It’s not Cohen, it’s more Sterns which I’m thankful for. Look at Jerry Jones and Cowboys, they like to sign homegrown/drafted guys that were fan favorites to above market $ and it hasn’t worked out too well for them.
but why play him so hard if “money ain’t a thang.”
===========================
That’s the way the world works. I get paid $x. I could be beloved, but I will still only get paid market wages.
And that line cuts both ways. Alonso could also come to his senses. Neither side is scraping by.
@Joe
Bad example, but I get it. Mets need another at bat and Alonzo has been durable.
Mets need another at bat and Alonzo has been durable.
=======================
Absolutely, it is a perfect match. My guess is that the offer was made prior to Stearns, and that Stearns considered that a gift and won’t go near it.
What they should do is to ask Pete to bring him the best offer he receives, and match it or say good bye.
Believe that $156Million ship has sailed. Probably trying to jack up the AAV on short term deal w/opt outs. To save face. Gotta think twice bout hiring Boras as agent now a days. Alot of his gazillion dollar promises have not come to fruition plus he’s persona non grata for some organizations where they don’t consider his clients. How much more is he getting his players than all the other reputable agents n agencies are getting for their clients. I remember when Jeff Weaver told em “no” to going into free agency cause he like being in Anaheim n didn’t need to milk every penny out of owners.
@Neikro
I don’t think they’re at teams that won’t sign a client if his. You can’t take this personal.
I would think they consider who is agent is in many instances.
He has probably pushed a trade decision or affect longterm planning at least a time or two.
KnicksCavs: Organism? Herbal?
Do you actually watch what you are typing or are you on drugs?
@Blue
Called a “typo”. my apologies. watching “Mayor of Kongstown” and was distracted.
Kingstown
“but why play him so hard if “money ain’t a thang.””
Because years are a thing. And by all accounts the actual hang up to getting a deal done.
Stearns isn’t married to Alonso in any way and is under no real pressure to cave on a deal.
Kniicks – Money is a thing with every team. Didn’t you see the Dodgers playing hardball with Teo? The Yankees playing hardball with Cole?
It’s like anyone with a budget, if you overspend here then you save there to offset it.
And Alonso has declined the past couple years, last year was by far the lowest SLG of his career. Between Lindor, Soto and maybe Vlad next year the Mets probably view Alonso as expendable.
I find it extremely disrespectful. Wanted the BIG TICKET item to sell tickets and look like big players while low balling their own homegrown superstar who has suffered through the bad times and been nothing but a true leader and huge for the community. I don’t buy the family crap for one second. Just another hedge FUND guy running a team.
Cambo: Calling Alonso a superstar is using the term very loosely.
Cambo – you are trolling and worse as it sound like you’re trafficking in canards. And you don’t know ball either. Alonso is not a superstar (just look at his WAR and OPS+ and the declines in those numbers over time) and not a clubhouse leader. He is not articulate or charismatic.
Agee – This commercial explains why some are so infatuated with Alonso.
youtube.com/watch?v=qLECMCargd8
Because the penalties for going over the final luxury tax apron for multiple years are extreme in terms of both dollars and organizational penalties, it’s not worth it to do that for a 1B for the next 6 years
Agreed
@cambo – he’s the farthest thing from being a leader. He’s no Keith and his little temper tantrums are exhausting. He’s needs to grow up.
So if the Mets give him a short term deal, he’s not appreciated but if another team offers him that deal then he is appreciated?
Men’s League
Alonso a ‘leader’?
I can’t stop laughing.
One clutch HR in October doesn’t offset his invisible man act most of the season. So caveat emptor NYM fans when he’s flailing at sliders over and over in important moments next year and beyond.
@10cent
162 games with 34 numbers and a near. 800 OPS is not nuthin’.
With no other value, it’s not $30m a year sumthin …
KnicksandCavs-An OPS+ a little north of 120 and two consecutive years with WAR trending down puts him in a very weak negotiating position. And his first year was, by far, his best. The pitchers have made adjustments and he has demonstrated that he has been unable to adjust to their adjustments. By turning down the Mets overly generous extension he bet on himself and he lost.
@Agee
12th in homers and 39th in OPS isn’t bad. Just saying
Knicks Cavs. Good point – he should be paid like he’s 39th in OPS
You are more likely to get paid on WAR than OPS. Over the past two years, Alonso is ranked #10 among 1Bs if fWAR, and #70 overall.
Im willing to bet 6 years from now he’s ahead of the 137. Whether it be one deal or two
I’d take that bet. Outside of hitting homers, he just piles up negative value in every other aspect of the game. At the end of the day, he’s barely better than a 2 win player. And his decline is obvious. As the homers drop year after year, he becomes less and less valuable.
At the end of the day he’s a 3.3 WAR player average in his career but let’s not let a little thing like facts get in the way of emotion
learn about the mlb aging curve. he’s a 30 year old unathletic K prone 1B who tend to age like poop
Learn about the game he put up a 24.7% k rate that’s not “k prone” in 2025. You see 170 k’s and poop. I see 695 at bats as well.
thats an above average K rate, which will only get worse as he ages into his mid 30s
@TheGr8One
…and trending downward.
Still an issue. In 21-22, he had a 2/1 K/W.
In 23/24, his K/W is 2.4.
I think he can still be signed, but not nearly for that long.
So we went from “k prone” to “above average” once facts were applied lol hilarious
he is K prone… liable or likely to K, shown by above avg K rates. arguing semantics to avoid the obvious issues with Alonso’s likely crappy aging
It’s worth pointing out that Pete’s increased K rate was the result of taking too many called strikes. His swinging strike rate actually decreased. It’s possible, however, that he knows he can’t get around on velocity inside, and was thus spitting on strikes on the inner third, which put him in bad counts. It’s also possible that it’s purely an approach issue. It’s also interesting that if you look at the heat map of sliders he saw last year versus prior years, pitchers located their sliders incredibly well against him last year. Seems to me that there’s a certain amount of randomness to that. ♂️
Gr8one- Here are a few relevant facts.
1. His first year was his best
2. His WAR has trended down for two consecutive seasons
3. Players with similar profiles with lifetime WAR around 20ish by age 31 get about another 6 WAR on average for the rest of their careers.
4. He has been unable to hit sliders down and away on a consistent basis
5. Most of his defensive metrics are well below average
6. He plays the easiest position on defense
7. His walk rate is not great, so his projected OBP will decline significantly in his early-mid 30s when he can’t catch up to the heater
AgeeHarrelsonJones;
Agree with everything except the part about 1B being the “the easiest position on defense”. Could go on about it, but 1B is the most underrated and challenging defensive position to play well on a baseball team. Since the 1B handles the ball more than any position other then P and C, a quality 1B helps his team quite a bit.
As for Pete…..
He’s the sort of lumbering, low-BA / HR-hitting 1B that often finds himself in his 30’s playing for a 2nd division team paying him as a gate attraction. A team like the Rockies would be a perfect fit.
@gr – sure, if you include his first couple of years. Remove those and he’s Dave Kingman.
You see plate appearances….not AB’s. You also see a decline in every important number for 3 straight years. That’s hard to ignore
I don’t think he understands that an above average k rate is bad. Reading comprehension is a quickly vanishing skill. At some point you have to realize that people that “don’t read good” also don’t think good.
Let’s go Rockies make it happen!
BR has him at 2.6 in 24. He’s not the same player he was a few years ago when he had his monster seasons.
WadeBoggsWildRide
I don’t think he understands that an above average k rate is bad. Reading comprehension is a quickly vanishing skill.
=======================
Wrong. K/W is much more important than Ks alone. De La Cruz lead the majors in Ks last year, and his extension cost will be $300M to start. Teo just landed $66M for his #4 in Ks. Some dude named Judge ranked #17 in Ks.
Don’t be so quick to criticize things you don’t understand.
All….yes everyone of those players you list…..bring other goodies to the table. Whether it be outstanding defense, SB’s, high average there is much more appealing aspects to their game. And to be clear, there is nothing more demoralizing than a HR hitter K’ing with the bat on his shoulders on a called third strike. That was Pete this past season.
Hitting is generally determined by K/W plus whatever power you have. A guy could strikeout 250x, walk 175x, hit 25 HRs and be an excellent hitter.
Then you add or subtract for fielding, baserunning, etc.
@TheGr8One
I’d keep your money in your wallet if I were you. He’s VERY one-dimensional. Below average glove as well.
Go ahead and Pivot. Vientos to 1b. Trade for Nolan or sign Bregman. Pete can come crawling back in March. They need a dh too. Just don’t bid against yourself on Pete. Or Nolan. Or heck even Bregman.
If only Bregman’s agent weren’t Pete’s agent.
Don’t see why the agent matters.
@Your
Would love to be on mute to hear that call.
Because Pete would core Boras is he found out his agent backfired his own client.
Nolan makes no sense. Nolan at 3B and Vientos at 1B is worth less than Vientos at 3B and Pete at 1B. Plus they would need to trade for Nolan. Bregman makes more sense if they’re going that route.
Trading for Nolan is easy. Just take most his salary.
Which is the very reason why he’s available. His production isn’t level with the salary.
His production is more at a level with his salary than Pete, at least what Pete is asking for. They both put up a little above 2 WAR last year and Arenado plays elite defense at a premium position. Pete hits more HR’s at the easiest spot on the field.
Let the kids play. Vientos to 1B and Baty to 3B.
You know it’s slow when mlbtr has to repeat the same stories every other day with basically zero new news.
Tomorrow it will be how do the padres shed payroll.
It was a new report with new information. No one forced you to read it. Also some people might not see every story so good to have uodates. Might want to relax your nasty attitude Mr. Non member who reads it for free.
Repeat away. Free agents have been thinned out. Brutally slow day after day. Hope they get creative with articles but until then repeats better than nothing.
Hence what I said…you know it’s slow when..
Thanks for saying the same thing.
Aaaaawwwwww. The poor Padres. They get such a rough deal from the media. Are you alright, precious ?
Small meat Pete will be washed in 2 years
@empty
cringe… dude, focus on a spot on the wall when you’re using the urinal.
boras made me look no cap
@empty nahhh… you’re a looky lou.
I really dont know what other teams make sense for Alonso if it isn’t the Mets. I think the Mets will end up with one of Alonso, Bregman or Arenado.
Giants. They have a decent 1B in Wade but he’s on his last year of control and would not block Pete. Plus they don’t have a regular DH, and they have the money.
Read up
Yeah I suppose the Giants could make sense. Wade probably needs to be platooned and he can play some outfield too.
agreed, giants should overpay another aging overrated free agent who will be washed in a few years, so they can reach 83 wins. Geriatric team with a geriatric fanbase.
Not a good park for him to hit in, just not a good fit in SF. He will regret it there.
Might not have a lot of choices
Giants have their first baseman of the future in Bryce Eldridge. They passed on one year placeholders Goldy and Santana in the hopes that Wade Jr. can hold serve until Eldridge is ready to be called up in June. Polar Bear has limited uses and definitely no place on this team.
eldridge is a bust
?
Reds
If a pillow contract, small market TB could use a thumper in 2025.
If that’s the case, he might as well just stay with the Mets.
I think they could be a surprise team now that they have a TV contract in place. They did say they could be active in the market now. Hitters ballpark. Win win.
not sure why mets declined pete’s short term offer with opt outs. either boras wants $150 mil for 3 yrs or the mets think they can swing a trade for vladdy making pete redundant. mets should grab pete for 2025, then either he’ll walk to earn a bigger contract or if he opts in for another yr or 2, mets can trade him and sign vladdy when he’s a FA
If they sign Alonso for 3 years with opt outs, and he doesn’t opt out, that will handicap their ability to go after Vladdy in 2026.
Vladdy wants much more than $30M a season
i guess you missed the part where i said mets will trade pete if he opts in after 2025
If he opts in it’s because he had a year worse than the open market will pay. Who’s trading for that?
@gr8
cubs traded belly didnt they ?
Yes and when Pete can play center they’ll get something for him. He’s unsigned now and available to 30 teams. None are biting so who’s biting after a down year with an opt in and if you name anyone why aren’t they biting now?
They had to throw in $ to do it.
Just because the Cubs made a mistake doesnt mean the Mets should do the same.
@John If nobody wants to pay him now, why would they trade talent for him next year and assume his contract after a potentially down season?
Boras Pete originally asked for over 200m allegedly. Turned down 150m or whatever extension allegedly. Chances are the 3 year is unrealistic allegedly.
Are we certain the Mets have declined this offer?
@johncoltrane It’s because the rumored 3/90m for a 2.1 fWAR player is idiotic.
Most fans don’t have the faintest idea why opt-outs are offered, and why they aren’t. Alonso’s an old 29 in steep decline, who was barely worth a starting gig notwithstanding (OMG TEH HRZZZ!!!! ) in 2024 and is now 30.
You give opt outs w/ high AAVs to very good players on short deals in order to (A) entice them to play for you, and (B) as an insurance policy for the player in the unlikely event he has a bad year and sticks around, presumably to bounce back and leave for FA.
Alonso is neither of these things. He’s not a very good player, and he’s very likely to have a 2025 worse than his 2024, meaning he hangs around at your expense.
He’s not worth 3/90m. He’s certainly not worth 3/90m with opt-outs which ensures that in the unlikely event he actually rebounds in 2025 and has a shot at carrying that into 2026, he’ll leave for FA. Opt-outs are absurd for a player of Pete’s type, a ‘slugger’ whose SLG was 40th in MLB, and who is below average at everything else.
I mean, he’s a solid player and more importantly, consistently healthy. I think he could be a good asset but he won’t get paid superstar money.
If I am the Orioles…I would jump all over this…I would love to have the Polar Bear in Bird Land
LOVE HIS POWER
LOVE HIS PERSONALITY
I don’t know about his personality.
I am a Cardinals fan. When Masyn Winn got his first hit Alonso had the ball. He sort of showed it off to everyone then threw it in the stands. It was weird I wouldn’t swear that he was doing it to be a jerk but it was weird I don’t know why he did it.
Haha I never heard that story
Maybe you can find a video of it. It was weird you can draw your own conclusions from it.
he showed the ump and pitcher the ball and neither wanted it back and threw it in the stands as a souvenir for the fans not realizing it was his first hit.not really weird just either forgetful or didnt know.
Fly by thats not exactly what happened. Not at all.
if you watch the video that is exactly what happened and he confirmed it in the interview after
No it’s not. I watched it numerous times trying to figure out what he was thinking. It was weird.
Um, you had better better production at about half the salary last year with O’Hearn and Mountcastle. Plus, with Mayo and Bassallo coming up, 1B/DH should be last on the Orioles’ list.
O’s ain’t giving up their draft pick. Already have as good 1b options. Could have signed or traded for someone as good.
I don’t see why any team would want to lose draft pick for Pete. And they didn’t because they all signed or traded for almost as good better 1b.
It’s not a big draft pick it’s like the 4th round. Doesn’t seem to be an obstacle to me.
It’s a obstacle to a intelligent gm. A big obstacle. Now if it was a 4th round pick that changes things. It’s more painful than a 4th round pick though.
Alonso is not enough of an upgrade over Mountcastle to be worth the cost.
He stays healthy though
I am a Lord Mountcastle fan….but he needs to stay healthy and Polar Bear stays healthy
Wall is moving back in. I bet Mountcastle hits 25 hrs this year. No thanks on Pete.
Lefty Orioles
YOU CAN HAVE HIM!
Signed,
Most reasonable Met fans
Hahahaha
Alonso put his trust in Boras, which has backfired so far. Both teams want each other, find that midpoint, and get it done already. But for the Mets, they should NOT bid against themselves. However, Alonso has earned it as a 6 year Mets veteran, so they should give a bit more to make it happen as well. Both sides, sit down and hammer it out already! LFGM!!!
He’s not going back to the Mets I don’t think. I know Cohen is loaded but whatever he pays Pete he pays in taxes as well. Sign him for 3/90 he costs 180+. I just don’t see that happening. It could sure Cohen has money but he didn’t get money by doing dumb things with it
Cohen doesn’t care about the tax. This is about Stearns. And you say he doesn’t go back to the Mets but well then exactly where will he be going? The Mets are still the best bet.
Boras is responsible for Petes hit data and results? I don’t think so.
No, Boras is just responsible for analyzing Pete’s hit data and overvaluing his market.
Overvaluing his market doesn’t matter. Boras wasn’t agent when Pete turned down extension. Asking for more than 200m makes owners gms laugh at him but didn’t hurt his market. Pete’s talent is reason for his market. Nothing Boras can do about it. They just need to wake up and realize his worth.
Thus overvaluing his market. Thanks for confirming.
Yeah it does. By the time they get down to his market value teams have spent their budget and moved on.
They moved on before free agency. Gms would rather trade prospects they failed to develop for as good or close enough players as Pete. Or rather have short term as good or close enough players. I said all along I’d rather have Goldschmidt Santana Walker Naylor Lowe than Pete. Gms agreed.
Now if Pete took something like Walkers deal 3 60m I am sure there would be a market. He didn’t turn down 150m and hired Boras to take Walkers deal. And if he was willing to accept it today I am sure the Mets would pay him. Other teams as well. Overvaluing his market didn’t hurt him at all. He can get his market value today February March. Mets will probably bid against themselves and give him over his market value. Asking for over 200m was ridiculous and made him and Boras clowns. But it didn’t hurt his market. Goldschmidt should be close enough to Pete and Pete was never going to sign for 12m 1 year. Cleveland Pittsburgh Seattle weren’t going to pay Pete. Houston probably rather have Walker. Arizona traded a comb b pick and failed prospect that’s better than spending$. If they wanted to spend $ they would have brought Walker back. Washington traded a old reliever. The problem always was there was much better options than Pete. Tampa had a better option for the right deal. SD has good enough option or options available. Someone could have just took on Bellinger salary. Arenado said he would be willing to play 1b. Or the better option is to keep him at 3b and move your 3b to 1b. He did and still is overvaluing his market but it didn’t hurt him. He can still get above market value right now. The only team who really wanted him still wants him and will pay not only market value but above it is my guess. His market was 1 team the Mets.
Jugg – Boras was not his agent when he greedily turned down the Mets overly generous extension. This is all Pete. Not a lot of self-awareness, apparently
What if nobody signs him?!?!
Then nobody will pay him!!
Hahahaha
Every year one or two guys. Think they are worth more then people will pay. Other teams think Mets have unlimited money . Yet they have not signed guy . Why? This has Atkins signing written all over it. Last empty chair is Atkins special. The genius probably offer more then he turned down from Mets.
Alonso should have taken the Mets 158 mill. MLBTR handwaves about how Alonso will beat that money by trusting in Boras. We’ll see about that bit of PR for the Mighty Scott.
If the Mets don’t want him on a short-term deal, Alonso is royally shafted. He won’t get anywhere near the dollars and years he wants from anybody else. A sluggish slugger with a bad glove and worse baserunning and declining offense. Just doesn’t appeal much outside New York.
Some folks said the same thing about Blake Snell and Matt Chapman the same time last year. Even in a down year, he’s got elite power for a 1B when only four firstbaseman hit 30+ homeruns this past season. If he wants to sign for an opt-out year, so be it. Odds are Pete Alonso will get paid very well this year or the next.
Yeah, he’ll get an okay salary for maybe a three-year deal with opt-outs. But he’s not a good all-round player and the slugging is starting to dry up. The trend in his SLG for 2021-24: .519 .518 .504 .453.
If the Mets don’t pony up he’ll have to take a smaller prove-it deal from someone else. Nobody seems inclined to sign this guy for any kind of major long-term money.
We could ask Jordan Montgomery how he feels about Scott Boras’s representation but he already told us.
I’m pretty sure Profar was with Boras when he was steered into opting out of his Padres deal and landed himself in Colorado for a season. Which went so badly that the Rockies waived him. He then switched agents, went back to San Diego for near the league minimum and had a career year.
For middle to lower tier players Boars is awful.
Someone will always get left behind. It’s the risk you take choosing Boras. They’re functions of the market and player performance.
It’s hard to see anyone wanting to sign Alonso at 3/70m, no opt outs.
You’d need an opening at 1B, with no one in the minors likely to come up for three years at an easy position to fill. It’s optimistic to think Alonso will average 2 WAR each season, and there isn’t a team in MLB who can’t get a win out of the position just by putting an OFer who can hit a little at 1B or by signing this year’s version of CJ Cron for 1/6m. The Mets could even put Tyrone Taylor at 1B or play Nimmo there and play two CFers in their OF and use the money elsewhere rather than overpay Pete
So you’re not really signing Alonso—what you’re really doing is paying through the nose for at most a 1 WAR upgrade each year of the deal.
4 years / $114M or $28.75M AAV over 4 years, which is a more than fair AAV and contract length that is the median between the original offer he declined and that Hail Mary contract he suggested to the Mets.
Meet in the middle. Why don’t teams and players meet in the middle like this more often?
Overpay.
Overpay and too long.
Because it’s a gross overpay for a minimally competent regular in decline.
You said it yourself. Why should the Mets sign an offer that’s ‘more than fair’ to the player?
In addition, 3/90m with 2 opt outs for Alonso is ridiculous. Alonso isn’t a player who should be getting a superstar AAV or anything close to it. If you offer Pete 3/60m, a fair offer, and he counters with 7/158m, why would you ever ‘meet in the middle’ when 5/109m is laughably more than his talent level and age warrant?
A few things to respond to folks who vehemently disagree with me:
Around the MLBTR comment section, you’ve got a lot of people who think basically every single player is overpaid, every single contract is too long, etc. and yet simultaneously you have equal numbers, often the same people, saying that these wealthy owners and ownership groups are being too cheap and need to spend more.
It’s not your money. It’s not my money. But debating, deciphering, analyzing, providing conjecture and compliments or derision of salaries and contract lengths and contract structures is like 50% or more of what we all clearly get enjoyment out of from baseball as a sport- the business side of things.
This is all monopoly money to us. And whether someone like Alonso makes $10M a year for 1 year or $50M a year for 10 years has little to no bearing on further budget decisions for virtually any team, with a few exceptions- and the Mets/Cohen in particular can afford it.
I also am of the opinion that baseball is a very lucrative sport, especially with all the broadcast rights deals that pump money into the game, to say nothing of merchandizing, ticket sales, etc.
Pete Alonso is a highly controversial player because of this debate over his true annual value and the schedule of his eventual decline as he ages and loses power, loses bat speed, etc.
He’s paid his dues. He’s right at the age where guys both peak in productivity and begin to taper off that productivity, which is why these are their best paid years, especially since it takes so many of them until about 30 or so to reach free agency and whether their production craters at 31 or consistently persists until they’re 41 is anyone’s guess.
I think Alonso has been a high profile player that has drawn eyeballs, attention and interest from the fans, which creates value in and of itself.
I am indifferent to him, personally. I couldn’t even pick him out of a line up if you asked me to, because I don’t watch the Mets- but the fact that I am so keenly aware of his stats, his performance history, his salaries, etc. says a ton about what he brings to the game- attention, interest, etc. that alone is worth something.
And the reality is, he is the prime example of a player who’s struggling to get paid for what people assume will be his future decline and not his current productivity levels.
2.6 WAR from last year at his level is still worth like $22M or so in WAR value, not that any of us can agree on the true WAR to Dollar Value ratio.
I see a lot of underwhelming players with low WAR totals and very up and down production get paid king’s ransoms (Bryce Harper) while others with more consistent value struggle to get more than 2 years per deal and struggle to get paid for the level of production they provide (basically most guys in their prime under team control/going through arbitration as they close in on 30 years old)
I also see a lot of guys begging for their teams to sign dudes to like 5 years/$150M or 10 years/$450M or any record breaking top dollar amount only to turn around a year or two later and describe the contract and player as an inevitable albatross simply because they’re doing that pesky thing where they continue to grow older.
Pete Alonso doesn’t matter to me. What matters to me is a guy in his position, at his age, with his history of production, being denied his bag of money because everybody is anticipating the drop off that comes for most players beyond 30 years old, when the game has always baked that into itself- there’s always an ‘overpaid veteran’ on a team with an ‘underpaid’ player under team control, with the veteran maybe having a good year or stretch of games here and there, but otherwise seen as an aged out former all star on a bloated contract, with some young guy who deserves $50M a year making league minimum or a paltry $7M or something under team control- and that bloated aging contract will eventually conclude, someone will sign that young guy to a deal worth tens of millions over half a decade or longer- and the cycle will continue.
I am simply in support of Pete Alonso getting his, in principle, because I think it sucks that guys are being denied their pot of gold due to increasingly harsh analytics when their predecessors would have absolutely gotten paid- maybe not for 7 to 10 years, but for a good 4-5 years and getting close to or clearing $100M, which they deserve based on what they produced previously.
Trillionaire – Nice to see the athlete worshipper writing an essay to defend the wealthy athlete against the wealthier owners. I’ve no doubt you put as much passion into supporting min wage workers against wealthy corporate owners as you do with these athletes!!!
There are still plenty of guys getting their pot of gold — Soto got a record deal, and including guys with lots of risk like Max Fried. Also Harper got his massive deal because of his age, similar to Soto being so young getting so much. If you want baseball players to start getting paid what they are worth, you should look to decreasing years of control, changing the arb process, etc… Because hoping that 30+ year olds are gonna keep getting rewarded for past production is foolish.
@emptybatavg:
I love your first paragraph.
Plus you articulated it, without making it, a novel lol.
I think the minimum wage should be a living wage (so like $75/hr w/2,080 hours guaranteed at minimum) and billionaires shouldn’t get 8 to 10 figure bonuses off the backs of underpaid workers and I think players should be paid as much as possible. Yeah I’m really against minimum wage workers… yeesh.
And baseball players are notoriously underpaid by the ownership relative to the money flowing through the game.
And this is a baseball comment section on articles about contracts. So that’s what my comment was about.
75/hr w/2080 hrs is 156000 a year, well above a living wage in most places I would think, but maybe you live in san francisco. Im curious why I haven’t seen any long essays of yours about payment under mlbtraderumors articles about a mid or low tier player signing — surely when Jesse Winker signs with a team (and very likely gets underpaid) ill see an essay under that article tho right? If you read this article, you’ll notice your boy Alonso was offered a contract extension that was effectively 137/6 years and turned it down, pretty close to ‘market value’ based on previous contracts to Olsen and Freeman.
Yeah, you’re right, I don’t track every single player.
I get it. You don’t like me. Cool.
The beauty of the first amendment is that we can all say what we want around here (as long as its not derogatory or truly offensive) and we can ignore or upvote or reply to each comment, unless someone’s been muted.
So if you hate me so much, just mute me… Unless…. you *enjoy* hating me and writing fairly detailed responses to my comments gives you some entertainment value… not unlike my comments on some but not every article about some but not every player.
Hmm…
2.6 WAR from last year at his level is still worth like $22M or so in WAR value,
==========================
I don’t think so. The issue is that teams like Seattle and BA get quality WARs from players like Raley and Mountcastle. It is not worth the marginal cost for a small improvement in WAR.
And other teams probably have “passable” prospects in the minors that will cost nothing.
75/hr w/2080 hrs is 156000 a year,
===========================
1-Every job will be automated or offshored.
2-Inflation will be 75% a year.
3-No one will go to college since 95% of all jobs will pay $75/hour.
4-US exports fall to about -0-.
5-A hamburger at McD’s will cost $50.
It’s a laughable suggestion. You’d be better off having the gov’t give $100,000 a year to every person in the country.
So are you like a socialist? Don’t understand the economics of the sport?
I live in an expensive state where that’s the minimum to be comfortable and not live in the worst neighborhood in a one room hovel where you have a close personal relationship with the transient addicts who live just outside your gate/underneath your window.
Also most folks I know in multiple states have told me they wouldn’t feel comfortable making less than $200k a year.
Now, do I think someone flipping burgers in high school should be making $156k a year? No. But anybody self sustaining and trying to save to retire as a full time worker? Absolutely, so long as you are working full time.
I get that it might be less in other states, but yeah.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
So are you like a socialist? Don’t understand the economics of the sport?
============================
I don’t know what that means, or to whom that is addressed.
1-If you doubled everyone’s income, someone will still live in that one-room hovel, just like I would still live in my house.
2-I never made $200k in a year, I live in NY, and between my wife and I, we paid off our kid’s very expensive education, paid off our house, and have mostly paid off our beach house. $156k goes pretty far in almost every area.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
I think it sucks that guys are being denied their pot of gold due to increasingly harsh analytics
===========================
Math is never harsh. And whether they realize it or not, everyone uses it. Do you pay the ask on a car, or do you go on-line to see what it is really worth.
Do you pay list price for a house, or do you first go see some comps to get a realistic range for the house, and then enter the negotiation on the low side?
It’s okay to admit it. Everyone does it.
Sign Bregman this year and Vladdy next year. Sorry, Pete, goodbye.
I thought the Mutts are a family team, what are they doing. They sign Soto and now they turn into the Rays.
Ignorant
You don’t think using the term “Mutts” is incredibly witty and smart?
@Logan1429 And here we thought Alonso “was desperate to stay with the Mets and remain a Met for life.”
And yet he turned down an offer a lot better than anything else he’s been offered.
As for the 3/90m, it’s a joke. Two opt outs kick the value up to at least 3/100m, and Alonso turned down 7/158m, which included his last arb year. Call it 6/137.5m, total, for his six FA years meaning the ‘deal’ Boras is currently offering the Mets leaves Alonso needing to only make 3/37.5m after 2027.
Tell us again how 3/90m with opt outs is ‘fair’??
Mets are waiting for Vlad Jr. Pete is a cooked, one trick pony.
Agreed.
Stearns couldn’t care less about the fat 1Bman on the Jays who’s looking for $400m-plus.
@JackStrawb
Why not?
“coming off a couple of relative down years” is a polite way of saying “has entered his decline phase”
It never ceases to amaze me that players don’t pay attention to the markets of their peers at their positions. Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman, both are superior defenders to Alonso and both are better overall hitters didn’t even hit the $180 million mark and Olson was younger than Alonso when he signed his deal.
Miguel Cabrera was on a Hall of Fame trajectory when he signed his extension and also had the ability to play 3B and the corner OF, which Alonso doesn’t. Team’s have shied away from the Pujols/Fielder albatross deals to one-trick pony’s in recent years and the fact that he seemingly only wants to play for the Mets are all working against him
I really don’t understand why these players never take a little bit less money to play where they want instead of holding out for every last dime of a payday. Alonso is a good player, but no way is he going to approach Freddie Freeman $$$. He seems to like playing for the Mets and he is somewhat beloved there, so take 5 years and $100m and call it a day. Better yet, if he had taken the extension they offered him and skipped testing the market altogether he would be miles ahead.
I think it’s the agents and managers who manipulate players from a young age. Hell even the parents during their youth. The message is just hammered into them early on. Everybody surrounding these athletes are relying on them for a meal ticket. They could care less about their happiness.
I think back to when Freddie Freeman left the Braves. Seemed pretty clear he did not want to go elsewhere but it’s like someone had him convinced if the Braves didn’t pay him every last cent that he wanted then nothing else mattered.
Pete Alonso spelled backwards is OnlyoneLeft
Yes Alonso ruined his chances. But this goes to show how much of a small market GM Stearns is. He’s been at the helm for two off seasons and a trade deadline and has left a lot to be desired. They made the same mistake at the deadline by not going all in. Instead he lived on the fringes and Blackburn and his reliever moves didn’t pay off. Yea you can say Winker was good. But look at his numbers since he was acquired. Cohen claimed they would be modeling after the dodgers but after these off season moves (save Soto who was all cohen) the look more like Brewers East.
Sterns got them into the playoffs in a step back year. Complain all you want.
Brewers Yeast
“single-celled microorganisms classified as members of the fungus kingdom…originated hundreds of millions of years ago…probably one of the earliest domesticated organisms” Wikipedia
I’d be a little careful about relying on Vientos to replace Pete. Vientos’s expected numbers (for what they’re worth) we’re nearly identical to Pete’s, except that they came with more Ks, AND in what might end up being the best season Vientos ever has, rate-wise. He’s a very obvious regression candidate. The team obviously has data that we don’t have, and I get not offering Pete a 5+ year deal, but they’re talking about a short-term deal, and it seems like Pete should be fine for the next 2-3 years (though he might benefit from a little more rest here and there). And who would play third if Vientos moves to first? Alex Bregman is entering his age-31 season, is also declining, and wouldn’t have the cozy dimensions of Houston. And they certainly can’t bank on any of their internal candidates. It’s weird.
Doesn’t matter who plays 3B. Internal or external, nothings guaranteed.
Please tell me why you think they can’t fill the position internally?
If your “that guy” Boras will get you the money. Unfortunately Pete isn’t that guy. He is average at best on defense and mid .200 hitter that last two season hasn’t come through when needed. One big HR in post season doesn’t award you a mega deal. I would like to see him stay a Met but won’t be heartbroken if he goes. He’s easily replaceable.
By rejecting Billy Eppler’s misguided extension, Pete Alonso will end up leaving at least 30 million on the table. He did the Mets (and Juan Soto) a solid. Pete, don’t let the door hit you on your way out. You had a sensational rookie year – one for the ages. But you over-estimated your worth and underestimated the inevitable decline in skills and athleticism that comes with age.
Alonso’s deficiencies are now perceived as more important than his talents are valued. It’s possible he ends up with a one year pillow. Possible
Alonso’s deficiencies far outweigh his one modest talent, a 459 SLG.
The question is whether he just had a bad year, or this is a secular decline, His lifetime OPS is .859 and OPS+ is 134–which is very solid, But take a moderate step back like 2024, and you do need to worry
It’s two consecutive years. He had a 140 OPS+ over his first four years, and a 123 each of the past two.
I see a lot of Dave Kingman in Alonso, albeit with a higher BA and somewhat better defense.
Yawn.
Mets should be on hands & knees thanking god pete rejected 7yrs/158mil
Huh I wonder why Jon heyman all of the sudden says that they are close to a deal…
I swear he’s got to be employed by boras corporation it’s not just a conspiracy theory anymore
Milwaukee brewers need to sweep in and sign Alonso. Much better numbers than Bregman, hasn’t shown decline yet. 3-5 year deal
I heard a rumor that he’s signing with the Mariners on a 4 year/$4 million deal with an option to throw fish in the off-season. However, that might just be a rumor.
Mets under no pressure to offer him any better than 3/60 with an opt out. Other clubs don’t want to be used by him and Boras when 1B doesn’t need to be an expensive part of most teams rosters.
Casual fans simply do not understand opt-outs.
Train is leaving the station Pete. Take it or leave it. Will we see Freeman like tears from Alonso? (Cue flounder)
I read often about the comparisons to Freeman et al First basemen contracts. Seems to always be mention of Bora$$ and ‘record ” amounts…the total or the AAV. Always more. Always more.
I understand being short change $6M seems pretty heavy, but getting $24 seem like decent income. And really, he isn’t losing any money if he signs for $22M. He is currently getting zero.
Bora$$ is the one who missed his record-seeking drive.
What is more important to Pete?,playing in Mets uniform or squeezing a few more million above a pretty good wage.
like: I won’t settle for$22M. I want $24M .Really ??
It doesn’t really matter, as the Mets don’t want Alonso. Fangraphs projects Baty + Mauricio at 3B at 2.0 WAR
For the same AAV Pete wants on a short deal the Mets can have either A or B. They aren’t picking A:
A) Alonso 1B + Vientos 3B
OR
B) Vientos 1B + Baty / Mauricio 3B + Flaherty SP + Tanner Scott RP
Same money, but B is far, far better. Granted, they’re not signing Flaherty, but it just shows there are vastly better uses for their money than Pete Alonso.
Silly, imo. I’ve turned down jobs that I knew I wouldn’t like. It is fair to make sure you receive fair market value, but if it is close, why leave? He’s made $43M. The NYMs offer would’ve taken that to over $200M. How much could he have gotten?
That was a great contract offer he turned down. Lucky to get 3 years $66 million now.
Alonzo turned down 22.5 million to 22.9 million a year and if I’m the Mets I offer him 64.3 million for 3 years with opt outs after 1 and 2 years
First year pay him 22.9 million, 2nd year 21.3 million and 20.1 million…he will decline and start sinking fast but get one more decent year and if he tanks then 21.3 million then 20.1 million protects the Mets and the Mets can still go after Vlad and split 1B and DH if he doesn’t opt out and if he does… he still isn’t going to get more than 23 million a year from anybody otherwise he would have signed already. 22.9 million for 2025 is better than what he has now which is zero, zip, nada, nyet.
Moving on and signing Mark Canha would be such a savage move lol
I’m a a Mets fan, but this saga is getting old. Sign him or don’t and move on. I’m thankful for everything Pete’s done in his time with the Mets, but it wouldn’t break my heart to see them go after a CI who doesn’t flail at every slider lie and away. If I was a pitcher I would throw him nothing but that pitch.
Low and away*
The Mets have to know that they’re essentially bidding against themselves for Alonso. I wonder if Steve Cohen would rather throw another money bag at VG Jr next off season than sign Alonso.
Comments about the Mets signing Vlad Jr all ignore a few important points
1. No team is going to have more than x long term (6+) contracts at any one time
2. Vlad Jr will get a long term contract
2. The Mets already have x long term contracts
X is 3 btw (FL, BN, JS)
A one year deal hitting behind Soto would make everyone happy.
Doesn’t Santander make total sense? A lefty/righty DH with lots of power. Does it not cover two roster positions with high value? What am I missing?
Maybe Stearns is the wrong guy for a large market with deep pockets… exactly the wrong guy?
Why didn’t the Mets get Burnes or Crochett, Fried or Buehler? Do you want to compete with the Dodgers or not? Seems like they are counting on lightning in a bottle… not too likely.
Why didn’t the Mets get Burnes or Crochett, Fried or Buehler?
===========================
Maybe because they paid $765,000,000 to Soto?
Bluejays should offer him a contract.DH this year and if Vladdy leaves next year they have a first baseman