Jack Flaherty is the top unsigned starter as the calendar flips to 2025. While there haven’t been a ton of teams publicly linked to the right-hander, Flaherty was tied to the Orioles before their agreement with Charlie Morton this evening.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote this afternoon that the Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants and Tigers are among the teams that “remain in the mix.” Feinsand also listed the Orioles as a suitor, though his column was published before the Morton signing. It’s not clear if that’ll take them out of the running. In an appearance on Foul Territory yesterday, Baltimore Baseball’s Rich Dubroff suggested the O’s could be reluctant to meet Flaherty’s asking price.
Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote earlier this week that Flaherty was believed to be seeking a deal of at least five years. That’d probably be the necessary term if he’s to get into nine figures. MLBTR predicted Flaherty for five years and $115MM at the beginning of the offseason. The market has been favorable to starting pitching, but Flaherty has yet to find a deal to his liking.
He’s coming off an excellent season. Flaherty combined for a 3.17 ERA while striking out nearly 30% of batters faced between the Tigers and Dodgers. He walked fewer than 6% of opponents while getting swinging strikes at a strong 13.3% clip. It was easily his best season since his dominant finish to the 2019 campaign when he was a member of the Cardinals. Flaherty battled injuries between 2020-22 and struggled in ’23, when he allowed an ERA just below 5.00 across 29 appearances.
The inconsistency is a concern, as is Flaherty’s injury history. He’s been generally durable over the past two seasons, but the Yankees reportedly nixed a deadline trade because of concerns about his back. Flaherty went to the Dodgers instead and held up for the rest of the season. He didn’t pitch well in the postseason, but there’s no indication he wasn’t at full health during L.A.’s World Series run.
Flaherty’s fantastic regular season gives him a solid case for five years. He just turned 29 and isn’t attached to a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason. There hasn’t been a four-year free agent deal for a starting pitcher this offseason. Max Fried and Corbin Burnes got six-plus years, while Blake Snell signed for five. Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi and Yusei Kikuchi all signed three-year deals. Flaherty should beat that group and presumably expects to top the four years and $80MM which Eduardo Rodriguez received last winter.
That’s without many clearly interested teams, however. Baltimore has added Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano on one-year deals, suggesting they may be reluctant to make a significant pitching investment. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote at the Winter Meetings that while the Cubs had some interest in Flaherty, they were hesitant to meet an elevated asking price.
San Francisco didn’t make as strong a push as many expected for Burnes. President of baseball operations Buster Posey recently suggested to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic that the club was optimistic about its young starters and searching for offensive help. The Tigers might be in a similar spot. They’ve been tied to Alex Bregman and Anthony Santander recently. Detroit GM Jeff Greenberg indicated after they signed Alex Cobb at the Winter Meetings that they weren’t likely to be big factors in the rotation market aside from a long shot push for Roki Sasaki (link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). Toronto has been linked to essentially every free agent but remains in the Bregman/Santander markets and could prioritize free agency’s top relievers.
5 years? Yeesh
I think, because he’s relatively young, he’ll get it.
I dunno. Maybe a 1 year prove it deal.
He just did that…and proved it.
Where were you in 2024?
Flaherty tailed off as the season went on and I think that is giving teams pause. Nobody wants to pay him based off his first half 2024 performance if they’re going to get results closer to his previous couple of years
He “got real gone”
If by “tailed off” you mean “put up a 7.36 ERA in 22 postseason IP…
Only an idiot would put that much stock in an arbitrary 22 inning sample.
So a pitcher who hadn’t pitched a full season in a while, tired slightly near the end. Who would have expected that could happen in his first year back?
Unless his back is screwed he is worth it. He not only pitched well last year, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Check his stats.
The Tigers should know his medicals better than anyone. If his back is good I hope they go get him to fill their #2 spot. It seems like they are waiting out the market in all their targets.
Apparently not the O’s
I get the feeling the Tigers ARE concerned about his back. I don’t think they are seriously interested.
Also, I am wondering if Scott Harris’s philosophy is to not get locked into long contracts with ANY pitchers, and to make do with youthful pitchers and reclamation projects only.
Flaherty’s regression started before the postseason. His strikeout rate went down and his walk rate went up after his move to the Dodgers. Only an idiot would disregard 3 months of declining performance
I think more than one team would put stock in 22 bad innings if they were all in the postseason.
That seems to be what he’s shown so far. I guess if you have to choose between a young guy like Jobe or Sasaki or signing Burnes of Fried for 6-8 years on a contract that could hamstring your ability to address other areas, it makes some sense. If that’s the case it doesn’t bode well for them signing Skubal long-term. The fact that he signed Maeda to a two year contract would seem to indicate a willingness to explore longer deals. I think what they do this offseason at 3B will be telling as to whether they will spend in the future or not.
A market without NY NY LA not desperate for you isn’t ideal. Teams signed and traded for pitching already so if you are still here they didn’t think you are worth what you want and refused to sign for what they want. Not a great place to be in. Someone will sign him but just because he is the best available doesn’t mean they will overpay. And any team that thinks you will say something that will turn off fans won’t even give your baseball worth. Marketing pr is a big part of contracts.
Looks like a pretty steep drop for the next best so I am pretty sure somebody is going to have to overpay.
After the one good year since 2019? Just set the money aflame.
Maybe a three year – 35mm type deal… He is a risky buy…
Easy addressed with a “if you get injured (back), team gets a cheap year” clause.
I might do three. Or four with a mutual opt-out. Five is crazy talk.
Crazy Talk: youtu.be/XXQ58P4e7Cc
He can wait until March and get his deal. My prediction is 4/85 and an opt out after the first year. The Giants and Angels would be the best match.
The inconsistency is a very valid concern. He may have to settle for a series of short term deals.
I would not characterize it as inconsistency. He was ascending toward elite territory, then injuries hit. He spent a couple years trying to regain his form—not uncommon for pitchers coming back from significant arm/shoulder injuries. Thenin ‘24, we saw him healthy and back on track.
I understand your point but what you’re saying is that we should trust his 2 strong seasons over the 4 seasons he was hurt and/or just a bad pitcher, enough to be non-tendered? Also, we can’t discount that he landed on a sneaky good team (DET) and was traded to the best team in the league. He pitched in 2 very pitcher friendly parks and had strong offense behind him. This wasn’t like when Cal Quantrill was putting up all-star numbers pitching for the Rockies.
I just think that I wouldn’t feel good about my team giving Flaherty a 5 year deal right now. I would like to see one more year similar to this one in 24 to convince me that his health issues and poor play are behind him.
But as the post says, the cost of pitching is absurd right now. Where true #3 guys like Manea are getting $25M/yr. But at the same point, if one team is stupid with their money doesn’t mean others should be.
@jumps Just so. Flaherty is in line for Zack Wheeler’s FA deal, and it took Wheeler two consecutive years of excellence and a peak likely higher than Flaherty’s to get 5/118m during the 2019-2020 offseason.
I appreciate you referring to the Tigers as having a “strong offense”. No one else has claimed that. The year end stats don’t agree.
Yeah, that offseason was crazy. At the time, that Wheeler contract was looked at as an overpay. The Nats outbid the Phillies the year before for Patrick Corbin and watched them win a WS after the Phils signed Harper. Apparently the only 2 teams that offered multi year deals were the Phillies and White Sox. The Sox offered 5/125 but apparently Wheeler’s wife and family is from Delaware and live in the greater Philly area. So the slight drop in salary was worth living closer to family. That’s when BVW was the GM of the Mets and in between sniffing his own farts, he (in his own way) called the Phillies stupid for offering that kind of money.
I also think that worked out because Wheeler finally got healthy. But also, he landed in a spot where he was pitching to one of the top 3, if not, the best catcher in the last 6-8 years in Realmuto. Plus their pitching coach is fantastic and surprised he hasn’t gotten any managerial offers.
I guess for me, there’s no next gear I see with Flaherty. Like you could see in 2018 and 2019 Wheeler something wasn’t quite unlocked at that moment. Flaherty looks like a good pitcher. If he’s healthy, he’s imo better than guys like Manaea and Severino (when he’s on) but not at the level of a Burnes or maybe even a Snell (although Snell can be hit/miss).
The strong offense comment was more directed towards the Dodgers. I mean, with that offense, if you keep the other team under 3 runs, you win 80% of your starts. But the Tigers flew under the radar last year. They were a sneaky good team in hindsight, just seems like the general baseball population didn’t know whether to believe it in or not.
It was a tale of two halves for the Tigers. Their pitching was wicked in the second half, likely due to their youngsters settling in, but their offense was still bad on paper. What seems to have made up for that was opportunistic hitting and being aggressive on the base paths. Getting Carpband Greene healthy again and having young guys like Meadows and Sweeneyvstep up was key too. Hinch definitely got the most out of the team in the second half. Everything clicked.
@moonlight… you could say the same thing about Severino and he only got a 3-year deal.
From a desperate A’s team.
By a “couple of years,” you appear to mean “four.”
Flaherty had a half season of truly elite pitching in 2019. The first half of 2019 was very mediocre.
In 2021 he had a 3.32 ERA in only 79 innings pitched. His FIP was 4.22. The noticeable difference might be explained by 5 gold gloves behind him plus a gold glove finalist catcher, a shortstop with 16 outs above average, and a right fielder with 3 defensive runs saved. That elite defense helped him quite a bit in 2021.
Last year was mixed between the first and second half for Flaherty again. That seems to be a pattern for him. He needs to prove his consistency if he wants the long-term contract with a high AAV.
Cubs’ defense is pretty elite – maybe that is the best fit for him.
The Blue Jays being “in the mix” is to the Dodgers actually signing guys
Unless they can get Santander it doesn’t even seem worth it to invest in anything else.
It would somehow seem fitting for the Jays, a team in obvious need of offensive reinforcements, to trade away their second best offensive player from last season for a glove only infielder, and then overpay for a starter, and call it an off-season.
Starting to wonder if Atkins has been trying to get fired all along and Shapiro just doesn’t want to can his friend.
Funnily enough they’ve been trying to get him since he was a weee lad. Before the cards got Arenado there was a potential trade that almost happened that would have sent him to Toronto for Donaldson but shatkins decided to keep him and dealt Donaldson for a bag of magic beans in Julian Merryweather which to me was one of the first big warning flags of the shatkins era.
Is “funnily” a word that adults use?
It’s odd the Blue Jays never adapted to their geographical situation by gambling on prospects / young players very, very early in their careers by offering guaranteed money and buying out at least a couple of FA years.
That HAS to be more productive / constructive than having to offer Geiorge Springer 6/150m to come to Toronto.
He has obviously had some excellent seasons, but buyer beware at 5 years, lots of red flags with inconsistency and health. Some team might get desperate and pony up.
But I could see him ending up being on a short term high aav deal with opt outs. Like a 3/80 or 3/86 with opt outs.
One good year since 2019. But, sure, 5/115m.
You never want to give a player like Flaherty or Alonso opt-outs. The chance is too good their careers are about over and that’s why they stick around, rather than someone like Bellinger who at least gave 2.2 WAR and will probably do something similar in 2025 despite the high price tag.
At least you get something.
Five years? Good luck to whomever inks him. He hasn’t been signed for a reason. His best season since 19 was compromised by his playoff failures. Granted it is just one season but what the Red Sox saw from Buehler in the playoffs was key. Unfortunately for Flaherty, it works both ways.
Truly horrific throughout the postseason. And he’s not a 180 innings guy, more a 140-160 innings starter at this point.
They seem to be moving that way with many pitchers now. How many guys pitched 200 IP this year? That used to be the norm for starters.
Four guys reached 200 innings across MLB and Wheeler hit it right on the number.
I think a slight overpay on a one year via a substantial buyout on a slightly modest AAV multi year club option and an even more modest, shorter length multi year player option would be best.
1 year/$20M w/ a $10M buyout on a 2 year/$40M player option vs a 4 year/$110M club option would make the most sense.
This is a player i wouldn’t want to give an opt out to. Because he’s got upside and downside both he’s risky. If you take the risk you should get the reward here.
So you would rather have the injury risk for the entire contract, than take one good year and have someone else take the risk after that?
The injury risk is not my concern. All pitchers are injury risks. It’s his performance and focus that seems to come and go. I wouldn’t want to sign him and watch him outperform the deal and then he opts out.
Why not? You got more than your moneys worth, and he can now lose focus or get injured elsewhere, plus a QO pick. I was hoping for two quality years from Baez, and an opt out. Aren’t the Tigers lucky he didn’t opt out?
There is risk and reward. Baez is a bozo. I think Flaherty could be like Zack Wheeler and take that next step.
5 years? Wow. But, why not shoot for the moon? The worst that can happen is a team not meet your demands. He’d help lengthen the Cubs’ rotation. He’s not a #1 but, he’s a solid 2-3. Let’s go Cubs. How bout fewer years and more AAV?
@mindseye15 Dicey situation he’s in, but with above average pitching in such short supply he can afford to sit until a few days before ST.
If he waits any longer, though, some of those offers are going to disappear given his history and the bad starts from Montgomery and Snell.
Very injury prone.
Buyer beware. Injuries throughout his career and has his best season entering free agency
So Baltimore got half of his best season? Then the Tigers signed him as a FA?
But Jack was funny (sad) being drunk through all the post-parade interviews.
pitched pretty well in that first game . but yeah I saw him almost fall at least twice. went to the parade and he was pretty happy. so was I and like 200k others. thanks for the memories Jack.
I still think it’ll be the Tigers (as long as his back is good) or possibly San Fran who end up with him. He pitched really well in Detroit and fit with the team as their #2. Run it back Detroit!
The Tigers signed him because he was willing to take a short term deal… i don’t see where they sign him to 5 years even though he did well in Detroit in 2024.
IMO Signing Cobb put the nail in the coffin on his tenure as a Tiger.
Now if he takes a two year deal they might take that chance.
Beyond Skubal there are no sure things due to injury or performance concerns. Cobb, Mize, Olson all have trouble staying on the field. Maeda, Mize, Manning are inconsistent, although i think Mize boub es backni. His 2nd year after surgery. Hurter, Jobe, Madden, Montero are unproven still. I really like Hurter as a starter.
Even without Flaherty I think they have a decent rotation with Skubal, Olson, Cobb, and two of Mize, Montero or Jobe. Madden and Hurter likely end up in the pen providing bulk innings and fill in starts. Manning and Maeda should be shipped out. There will no doubt be injuries and for some innings limits as there always are.
A no doubt #2 starter like Flaherty takes that group from decent to really good and raises their chances of going further this year than they did last year. Pitching wins.
Think of what the bullpen for Detroit could do with 5 starters regularly providing 5-6 innings, rather than 2-3 bullpen games a week.
I haven’t seen many mentions of Faedo when articles discuss Tigers pitching in 2025. He may not be a starting candidate any longer, but he’s a valuable bulk reliever still, IMO.
I would be hesitant to give up on Faedo, Mize or Manning as some seem to want to do. All those hours working on those guys go down the toilet if they are given up on. If they have options left, stow ’em in Toledo if there aren’t openings on the 25-man roster.
Maybe if I perform well at my job for a couple months I’ll get a raise and that’ll erase my four years of no-shows and repeated call outs on Mondays.
That’s how baseball works dude.
Can you throw 95? Or are you some very easily replaceable schlub?
Seems like an exaggeration to say “he didn’t pitch well in the postseason.” He had a couple of good quality starts along with the duds.
People enjoy the negative more than the positive. The glass is always half empty with these people.
18 ER in 22 IP, 6 HR allowed, 7.36 ERA in the postseason? It’s like he was being paid by other teams.
In fairness, though, he somehow went 2-1.
Hopefully the giants so that beef with Machado can continue in 2025
I don’t see the Tigers sinking 115M into Flaherty. Maybe three years for 75M with an opt out after the first year?
That’s how I see it too.
Something like 3/80 with an opt out. Problem for Flaherty though, if he opts out he’ll be given the Qualifying Offer.
What, the downside on a guy with one good year in his last five isn’t enough, so you want to ensure he can opt-in if he’s lousy?
He’s 29 so five years only makes him 34 at the end of the contract. If his back is good why not? Chris Fetter obviously helped him get better and he was comfortable and produced in Detroit. He fits in nicely there as their #2. If they get Sasaki then sure, maybe pass on him but we all know thats not happening.
Yes, because Sasaki is a sure thing. (really?)
I think I ended with “we all know thats not happening.”
Baltimore has added Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano on one-year deals, suggesting they may be reluctant to make a significant pitching investment.
That is other than $250 million they offered Burnes
I think Flaherty gets a bad rap, but his two really good seasons in STL were REALLY good, and then some injuries obviously were going to derail him some, especially shoulder ones, but when you look at it he had one ok injury shortened season, two others were mediocre, and his “comeback” season in 2023 was bad overall (but he had minor injuries there, too), but this past season he returned to that 18/19 form. I mean the pedigree has always been there. Injuries are unfortunate, but he’s battled back from it, and LAST year was his one year prove it deal. He should at least get three now, he’s still 29.
The Tigers were generally careful with Jack Flaherty and he missed some starts in midseason. Knowing his injury record, there was a sigh of relief when he was traded. You always feel like you’re walking on eggs. I do t think Flaherty ends up in Detroit. Hes not accepting a one year deal and if he does, it’s going to be too much for the risk.
The sigh of relief was finding out Harris could actually complete a deadline deal.
He sure likes to leave it to the last minute. It backfired big time with Erod but worked out well with Flaherty. Liranzo especially looks like a core piece for the future.
So glad his first deal with the Yankees fell thru.
I don’t have much use for Warren. It definitely didn’t sound like a better return.
If they aren’t looking at him then it makes me wonder if the Yankees had sone value concerns about his back. The Tigers would know his medicals as well as anyone. He fits perfectly as their #2 IF he is healthy.
You know who needs Flaherty? The braves! You know who’s not getting Flaherty? The braves! All these teams got better and the braves have done absolutely nothing. We sit idle and wait for our players to get healthier or have positive regression from this past season. Meanwhile that isn’t always the case and we could end up with another year of injury and underperformance! Just at the beginning of last year we were talked about as the best competition for the dodgers in the NL now we aren’t even discussed as best in the division. Mets got soto and resigned manea. Phils got luzardo, the braves? Some minor league deals, and oh Bryan de la Cruz, another player we’re banking On for positive regression. We need Outfield, shortstop, starter, and relievers, and we do nothing. It’s so annoying that we are one of the highest paying teams in the game but make no measure to comPete against the big dogs! We can’t trade cause our farm sucks. So get out there and spend some damn money! We’ve let fried, Morton, and minter go, and we’re relying on prospects that may or may not pan out to fill out our rotation and bullpen! We are not acting like the top flight team the braves absolutely should be and have no excuse not to be! Bring back minter, sign a solid starting pitcher, and sign ha seong Kim, we have arcia to lean on until Kim gets healthy. It makes too much sense! Or trade for bichette! I know they had injury down years as well, but they are proven and will add to a braves team in desperate need of their skills. Not everyone will come back healthy and playing at an all star level but at least we could saying we’re trying instead of doing nothing while everybody laps us!
tldr
Too repetitive, didn’t read.
And I don’t give af
Its called a budget. They spent in previous years, and now have less remaining to spend. Atlanta has public books. No reason to not be aware.
Yikes. Maybe – I don’t know, spitballing here— maybe unplug the console, walk outside the basement compound for some fresh aire, take up a hobby or four, find a pet, partner. It’s freaking January, even Jimmy Fallon didn’t go full on crazy until spring
I have a wife and 6 kids and work outside all day so your argument is invalid, I’m mad at the braves and I have every right to be, I was on the bandwagon of how good we were and can most definitely be, but while every other team gets better the braves sit idle and we will expect more of the same this year if we don’t do something!
Nah, we hear ya, you’re every frustrated fan when the going rate for Mike Freaking Sororka is 8 digits. Just welfare check. Hang in there buddy
I mean wellness check. Tho with so many mouths to feed, maybe welfare check too would assist
Cubs should add to the ‘pen.
Craig Kimbrel
I can see Hoyer getting Craig Kimbrel and calling it a day, good luck to the bullpen in 2025!
2 years @ $18 million with a team option for 3 more years at $22 million.
I’d do 2 at $23 with team option for 3@ escalating by $2MM each year if healthy for majority of the season, or same if not.
How is Flaherty worth less than Manea in AAV?
3-year 90mil plus a couple options seems fair…
I take it back that’s probably too rich…. 3-75mil with options?
Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants and Tigers. The sad trombone club. Welcome to Arby’s!
Perhaps you should look up Kyle Tucker, Dumpster. And while you are at it, had you heard which teams from the AL Central were in the playoffs last year?
Are you a White Sox fan?
It’s amazing to me that nobody learned from last year. Agents ask for ridiculous numbers and then have to settle for one year contracts a week before spring training. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery really paid the price. Flaherty is gonna be this year‘s mistake
Should go to a no disclosure program for contracts. Bet all these guys would sign a lot quicker.