While free agent starting pitchers have done quite well for themselves this winter, free agent relievers aren’t exactly flying off the shelves. To that point, only two relievers from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list have signed so far, and both of them joined their new teams to be starting pitchers: Clay Holmes and Michael Soroka. It was particularly interesting to see Holmes sign as a starter. For one thing, he hasn’t started a game since his rookie season in 2018. What’s more, he has been one of the top relievers in the game over the past four seasons, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and 2.83 SIERA with 74 saves in 264 appearances. He was an All-Star in 2022 and ’24.
Jeff Hoffman is one of the aforementioned unsigned relievers from MLBTR’s Top 50 list. Like Holmes, he’s coming off an All-Star season out of the ’pen, but he is reportedly drawing interest as a starting pitcher. Indeed, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported in mid-December that Hoffman had received “more interest from teams” as a starter. That helps explain why Hoffman seems to have set his sights on a deal in the same range as the three-year, $38MM contract Holmes landed from the Mets, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic.
It’s not hard to understand why Hoffman would compare himself to Holmes. They’re both right-handed relievers with closing experience, and they’re less than three months apart in age. Then again, while Holmes has a longer track record of success, most metrics suggest Hoffman has been the better pitcher since he broke out as a high-leverage reliever partway through the 2023 campaign. In particular, he’s coming off a stronger 2024 season in almost every single statistical category, including strikeout rate, walk rate, innings pitched, ERA, SIERA, and all versions of WAR.
That’s precisely why MLBTR ranked Hoffman ahead of Holmes on our Top 50 list, predicting a four-year, $44MM contract for the former and a three-year, $30MM deal for the latter. Considering that Holmes was able to beat his predicted contract by $8MM, one might have thought Hoffman would be seeking even more – perhaps something closer to the four-year, $56MM deal we initially predicted for fellow free agent reliever Tanner Scott.
However, Hoffman and his agents have now had a couple of months to gauge interest on the open market, and one wonders if he’s discovered that teams aren’t valuing him significantly more than they valued Holmes. After all, it doesn’t seem as if the Mets vastly outbid every other suitor for Holmes’s services. Mere hours before he signed, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reported that Holmes was still choosing between numerous offers and that he had been in negotiations with several contending teams. Maybe one of those suitors could pivot to Hoffman instead, especially if he’s seeking a similar deal.
The Phillies were one of those contending clubs. They are also the only team that has been formally linked to Hoffman this offseason. Yet, after adding reliever Jordan Romano, starter Jesús Luzardo, and swingman Joe Ross, they’re almost certainly out on Hoffman.
Evidently, Hoffman has other suitors, but it’s not yet clear who they are. Other teams that were reportedly in on Holmes include the Orioles, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. The Orioles were interested in Holmes as a starter, but they’ve since signed Tomoyuki Sugano, likely filling that hole. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, were interested in Holmes as a reliever, and they have since signed Yimi García. It’s harder to say if that would preclude them from pursuing Hoffman. As for the Red Sox, it’s unclear if they wanted Holmes as a starter or a reliever, but it’s worth noting that they have added three starters since they were linked to Holmes (Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Patrick Sandoval), and they already have two potential closers at the back of their bullpen (Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman).
He’s worth at least that much easy. Surprised nobody has signed him yet if he’s willing to take that.
He’s a career 4.80 era guy. Hardly the ace caliber arm teams are looking for.
Look at his last 2 years. He’s become an elite reliever,
He’s turned the reliever corner, don’t really get why teams want to turn him into a starter. Probably it’s a Hoffman want because how much starting pitching is going for this offseason. Probably why he hasn’t been signed. The teams who want him as a reliever aren’t offering him the prices he’s hoping if he was converted to starting.
Hoffman stated he prefers “closing out games in a big spot.”
Yeah he’s been elite the last 2 years. He’s a different pitcher than he was early in his career.
THIS…..Reds fan and I remember how bad he was. I said the same thing about Robert Stephenson. another overpaid reliever.
Well another thing, and I don’t mean any offense to the Reds, but pitching coaches matter. He really changed the last 2 season. I think when a guy is still in his prime, and he just put together two very solid seasons, that you could sort of ignore his previous stats. I would absolutely prefer him as a reliever, but he may have just found it. He might succeed as a starter now. Who knows?
True…and the Reds have had 3 mediocre pitchers in Hoffman, Stephenson and Weaver who have pitched a lot better after leaving he Reds. That being said I will maintain that there will be regression to his mean for Hoffman. I would be money on it…
Cotham pitched for Vanderbilt under Derek Johnson. DJ seems to be held very highly regarded by players past and present. Looks like he hired Caleb Cotham with the Reds before he moved over to the Phillies. All this to say that he probably just put it all together more so than a pitching coaching change.
“The Reds hired Cotham as their assistant pitching coach before the 2019 season, where he worked with Derek Johnson, his pitching coach at Vanderbilt. The Reds gave Cotham the added title of director of pitching, following the 2019 season”
Is Hoffman jelly of Holmes?
It’s a telling sign of how thin the talent pool is getting when a guy like Hoffman, a failed starter who converted to successful reliever, is back in demand as a starter. It’s true he’s figured out a way to get hitters out but that doesn’t mean it will translate into being able to get through a lineup 2 times.
@TheStevilEmpire1 It should, though. Hoffman’s good enough that he pays no statistically significant penalty the second time through the order.
You know we keep track of all this and you can look it up, right?
Good luck.
I’d give Hoffman 3 at 35 to be a starter or Closer option. I think his value is as a Closer but a versatile arm like that is worth having on your team.. You could do worse. Hoyer should be all over this guy if he’s too brain damaged to get Tanner Scott. 40 million isn’t out of the question if you’re in for 35.
My thoughts exactly. Id sign him to be a setup/closer this year. Then give him a look in the rotation next year if Ben Brown and/or Cade Horton don’t claim the spots first. If they both pan out as starters, great, cant have enough pitching. Assad is depth or long relief or trade bait for ‘26.
3 yrs and $36M should be nothing for the Cubs.
Shoot. One would think Hoffman is seeking more than Holmes, like four years/12ish million per year, so mid-to-high 40’s. Dude could close, setup, or maybe even start. I think he’s best as a late innings reliever…
Hoffman took off as a Philly thanks to B. Harper. I wish we could retain him but he deserves to be paid. He is way better than Holmes.
my prediction- The Bluejays offer Hoffman 10 years and $125 million but he signs with the Marlins for 3 and $27 million
Not the Marlins, but money sounds right
No it doesn’t. He’s been projected at $12 mil + by most publications. No way he can be had for 3/27. Not a chance in hell.
If the big markets are done shopping, that puts him in FA purgatory. He will take the best deal offered. Toronto has money to spend, but Vlad won’t be impressed by relief pitching. I don’t see Toronto looking that direction until after they get a bat.
Wanna bet?
Considering his performance results as a SP and his age, he’s better off staying a closer. Closers also she better than SP.
He’s evolved since ’21 – higher K/9, lower BB/9, and less HR/9. A team can always place him back in the pen if starting doesn’t work out.
Well, there goes that…..slight chance for coming back – over.
Glad he was able to have his career rebuilt in Philly. That’s always a good story.
But, grab that guaranteed money sir. At 31 this IS his shot for the big contract. Hope it works out for him, just not as much@the Phillies.
Reliever market must be hollowed out with the best names chasing starter jobs to make more money.
This must be an effect of teams lowering expectations on innings pitched. It seems like it is causing some disruptions, however, the long term is unclear. It could cause more spiraling or teams might turn around and expect more from their starters. It’ll be interesting to follow.
Starters in AAA aren’t even averaging 5 innings. Expect all they want, poor development leads to poor results.
No one is going to sign a competent SP with a league average ERA whose bucket is 150 innings a year at something like 4/70m (think Taijuan or Jameson Taillon) after telling him.. “we’re going to see if pushing you to 180 innings blows out your arm, because we really want to get our money’s worth.”
That’s a Fred Wilpon move.
Why would you try to insist SPs who have to go all out on every pitch in order to succeed, and who are routinely injured while doing so, should suddenly have to add 10-25% to their workloads?
Wherever the insistence comes from, the players have been complicit in implementing the higher efforts along with those higher risks. The players have control over how much effort they pitch with. If things are going to change, it comes from them.
The teams are trying to work around it by converting relievers into starters. It is clearly a low-cost measure to fill in those innings their starters can no longer cover because their starters are overexerting and getting hurt more often. Sadly, this patchwork only causes the issue to permeate deeper.
Only until starters realize that just pitching more innings will get them paid more will it shift incentives to lower the effort.
Clay Holmes and Hoffman both throw the Roger Beshens Football Slider. Think about what it would be like if they didn’t have it.
Well they wouldn’t be considered for starting roles. They’d probably also have problems with ED.
Both of them help make the Roger Beshens Football Slider work well.
These guys are both all stars and clay twice smh. They gotta change the allstar game to the end of the season
Hoffman would have been an all star no matter when they had the game this season. Granted he needed some injuries to get in, but his collapse wasn’t until the postseason.
It’s a weird point considering Hoffman was great all season. The post season is another story.
LOL
Cleveland had the best bullpen in MLB last year. They developed their own…..
Closer Emmanuel got $2.9m in salary. Nick Sandlin got $1.075m. He’s due $1.25m in 2025….so they traded him to the Blue Jays. No other bullpenner got over $1m – very probably none of which 95% of people reading MLBTR ever heard of. Most will be back in 2025.
All the MLB FO geniuses….The pitching coaches. The assistant pitching coaches. The FO analysts looking at statcast data and who knows what else. Meanwhile a quality MLB relief pitcher seldom throws 3 pitches…..oftentimes 2, and even Mariano Rivera threw one.
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Add to all this that MLB is now a bullpen game. Hoffman and Holmes would be considered successful if they get 3 innings in most starts, and if they can get through the 4th in a half-dozen others it would be a bonus. And the inept large-market teams are paying them $12-13m a year on a multi-year contract?….when the odds are that they’ll have numerous injuries during the length of the contact so if they pitch 80% of the time they’re scheduled for the FO will consider that a great signing. ?
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So here’s what will happen……
In the 2025 season all the semi-contending large and bigger mid-market teams will be looking for bullpen help a month before the trading deadline – as they always are – and will fight over so-so bullpenners available in trade that are unexpectedly having a good year. They’ll trade some overrated prospects for them. Meanwhile – small market teams that win – Cleveland, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Detroit, and Cincinnati (Francona knows how to build a bullpen and will work with pitching coach Derek Johnson) – will have cheap, mostly unknown guys coming out of the pen that will get the job done for a fraction of the cost.
When is the last time Cleveland, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Detroit, or Cincinnati won the WS? That’s alright, I’ll wait…….
Just for the record: 1990 (Reds)
3/36, signed, sealed, delivered.
Holmes has a longer and a better track record. Hoffman should get no more than 3 years/$30M.
Holmes is in new territory as a starter.
Mets giving Holmes money was a cheap way to find a starter. But opened a can of worms because he was overpaid as a reliever. It sends the wrong message. Players are trying to make more money by becoming things they aren’t.
Hoffman is a failed starter in the bigs. Holmes hasn’t had the chance to fail as a starter in the bigs, because he failed in the minors.
Reynaldo Lopez comes to mind. Teams can get throwers to throw multiple innings and they do it because it costs them less than a starter. Teams are starved for innings pitched.
I think he’ll be headed (on a plane) to the 51st state in a matter of days.
Along with the rest of the team, he started to fade the last 60 days of 2024.
What’s funny is his splits as a starter and as a reliever are relatively the same if you take into account that he’s pitched 8 more innings as a starter than as a reliever. The biggest glaring number is the difference in Home Runs allowed (47 as SP, 25 as a RP).
“two relievers from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list have signed so far, and both of them joined their new teams to be starting pitchers: Clay Holmes and Michael Soroka.”
Michael Sorka __is__ a starting pitcher.
That’s debatable.
Reliever 36 IP, 2.75 ERA
Starter 43.2 IP, 6.39 ERA
Granted he was a starter in… 2019, but he didn’t look remotely like one in 2024.
Probably the kindest thing you can say is, it’s a tossup, given he went 0-5 in both roles.
Tales of Hoffman
Both Hoffman and Holmes gained advantages from using the Roger Beshens Football Slider. This should not be overlooked.
I would feel better about the Phillies resigning Hoffman if he hadn’t collapsed in the playoffs. For 10+ million it’s a pass for me. Money could be better spent elsewhere.
“Meanwhile” has to begin the sentence. It can’t come in the middle, set off by commas.