Just before the holidays, the hot stove roared to life for the first base and DH market as a host of players all came off the board over the course of a matter of days. Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe changed hands via trade, while Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Joc Pederson, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Bell all inked deals in free agency. The boom in this corner of the market even impacted depth pieces such as Darick Hall and Matt Mervis, both of whom found new homes in minor league free agency and via trade respectively. Even after that run of deals coming together, however, plenty of interesting first base and DH options remain available. Pete Alonso is of course the top free agent first baseman available this winter, while Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha are among the more interesting bounce-back candidates who could still be had on the open market.
Among the most notable options available at this point in the winter for those looking to fill a hole at DH are a pair of aging right-handed bats, both of whom are World Series champions with decorated resumes: Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez. Both players appear to be in the twilight of their careers but managed to put up above-average offensive results last year and are looking to extend their careers in free agency this winter. Those similarities come with noticeable differences in their overall profiles that give each certain advantages over the other, creating an interesting contrast between the pair.
Turner, who celebrated his 40th birthday back in November, is a free agent for the third consecutive offseason. The longtime Dodgers stalwart was among the game’s premier pure hitters during his time in Los Angeles, and in nine seasons with the club he slashed an excellent .296/.375/.490 (136 wRC+). No one should expect that level of production from Turner at this stage of his career, but even though his days of All-Star appearances and top-10 finishes in MVP voting appear to be behind him he’s remained a consistent and solidly above-average hitter in two seasons since departing his longtime club. He’s split time between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners since leaving the Dodgers, and in that time has slashed .268/.349/.422 with a wRC+ of 116 while accruing 2.2 fWAR.
Digging a little deeper, Turner gets to his production in largely the same way he always has, with a high-contact approach and strong plate discipline. He’s struck out at an identical 17.6% clip in each of the last two seasons, just a hair behind Juan Soto’s 17.5% strikeout rate. In 2024, he paired that with an excellent 10.9% walk rate that placed him alongside Carlos Santana and Yordan Alvarez in a tie for the 27th-highest walk rate among qualified hitters this year. That’s not to say Turner is flawless as a hitter, of course; the veteran has never been much of a power threat, and 2024 saw him hit just 11 homers as his ISO dropped to .124. That was the 16th-lowest figure among qualified hitters last year and is Turner’s worst finish in the category since he arrived in L.A. back in 2014. His 4.6% barrel rate and 32.5% Hard-Hit rate were similarly bottom-16 figures in the majors this year.
As for Martinez, the six-time All-Star spent his peak years in Detroit and Boston with a brief sojourn to Arizona in the middle. From 2014 to 2019, only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge topped Martinez’s 151 wRC+ as he slashed an incredible .307/.373/.581 with 207 homers in 816 games. Of course, those peak years are now long behind him. Since the start of the 2021 season, Martinez has slashed .268/.334/.486 (122 wRC+) with noticeable peaks and valleys in his production based primarily on his power output. The slugger mashed more homers (33) in 2023 than he did in the 2022 and ’24 seasons combined (32), and depending on his power output can oscillate from a roughly replacement-level bat to a slugger still worthy of an All-Star appearance.
With that being said, Martinez’s plate discipline pales in comparison to that of Turner. Over the past two seasons, Martinez has struck out at a hefty 29.8% clip while walking a solid but unspectacular 8.5% of the time. It’s also worth noting that, while he’s three years younger than Turner is, he provides even less defensive value than his 40-year-old contemporary. Turner played in 139 games and started in the field for just 44 of them in 2024 (almost exclusively at first base), but you’d have to go all the way back to 2018 to find a year where Martinez started that many games in a season.
It should also be noted that Martinez’s platform season is far worse than that of Turner’s, as he hit just .235/.320/.406 (108 wRC+) in 120 games with the Mets and started losing playing time to deadline pickup Jesse Winker late in the year. While he posted a strong .417 on-base percentage in a limited role during the club’s postseason run, he hit for surprisingly little power with no extra-base hits. Turner, meanwhile finished strong down the stretch with the Mariners as he hit .264/.363/.403 (126 wRC+) in 48 games after being traded to Seattle over the summer.
On the other hand, Martinez’s underlying numbers suggest a resurgence could be in the cards for 2025. His 14.7% barrel rate last year was just a hair behind those of Austin Riley and Teoscar Hernández, while 45.5% Hard-Hit Rate places him squarely between Elly De La Cruz and Joc Pederson. That contributes to a .356 xwOBA that was nearly 40 points higher than his wOBA last year. Meanwhile, Turner’s profile is more or less maxed out, with his .327 wOBA in 2024 nearly matching his .330 xwOBA and his 2023 production actually outstripping his expected numbers noticeably.
So, if your team needed a DH, which veteran would you rather bring in for 2025? Would you value Turner’s consistency, discipline, and limited ability to play the field? Or are you more drawn to Martinez’s power, upside, and relative youth?
J.D. Martinez because of his uniform having his full name on the back.
Padres should be in on both…but they won’t.
Conditioning fans to accept less.
New ownership’s frugality notwithstanding, it’s just tough for the Padres to fit a full-time DH into the roster with Arraez. Not sure either Martinez or Turner can play 1st. They definitely need to lengthen the lineup 6-9, though. Better fit would have been Goldschmidt or Naylor. Perhaps Arenado with tremendous salary offset paid by STL?
I also think Preller would be crazy to trade Arraez. Perhaps I’m in the minority, but I think he’s the best pure leadoff hitter in the game and a great clubhouse guy. Don’t care what the stats nerds say; you just need to watch the game to see his impact
Watching the Mets last year, by the end of the season JD had lost all his power and couldn’t catch fastballs. I think he’s done.
Agree with this.
Yeah, don’t think he has anything left in the tank.
I’d bet that xwoba difference came about largely in the middle of the year when he hit into some incredibly bad luck, despite hitting the ball hard.
Fell off a cliff in the back end, so despite having not seen Turner much, I’d still take him over the guy who might be done.
Have to agree. He was horrible in the second half and only got worse as the season went on. Surprised he’s not retiring, honestly.
Yup. I watched every Mets game. I agree with all 3 of you guys. He’s toast.
He may yet retire. He said in an interview last year that he was going to retire had he not gotten a major league offer, and was not willing to take a minor league deal. He’d already prepared himself mentally for that reality until the Mets offer came along.
geofft: You say “He may yet retire” as if it’s up to him.
But the game has a way of forcing the issue.
That’s how I’ve felt watching Paul Goldschmidt but the Yankees gave him money
The best contribution JDM made to the Mets was as an extra hitting coach. That’s what I would try to sign him to do, maybe in the minors or as hitting coordinator.
He’s boon done for a few years.
Turner can actually play 1B or 3B. This shouldn’t be close.
He’s also a total clubhouse guy.
If you’re putting Turner at 3B regularly, then his bat returning is the least of your team’s worries. He’s logged 90 innings at 3rd the past two years combined for a reason
Yeah…he can spell your regular @ 1B, but that’s about the size of it at this point.
The Dodgers should consider JT before re-signing Kike Hernandez
Ridiculous
..and play him where, exactly?
Red Sox could always sign Kike. They’re looking for right handed punch. LOL
The Mariners seriously need to bring back Turner.
Justin Turner technically had the better season last year. Not by that much though. But I’d definitely like to have him back with the Mariners, whom he did pretty well with by the way.
Neither.
Martinez disappeared in the second half if the season. It was brutal to watch.
I like Justin Turner, I’ll be interested to see if Juan Soto is still hitting as well as Turner at 40. That .296/.375/.490 isn’t too far from Soto’s numbers and Turner was a gold glove third baseman. Underrated? Or is Soto’s deal that terrible of a overpay?
Turner will win another WS Championship before Soto gets a whiff of it.
Silly take. Turner has a year or two left and championship caliber teams aren’t calling.
Soto has been to the World Series 33% of the time in the Majors. He’s joining a NLCS team. Got anything more ridiculous to say?
Soto doesn’t disappear in the post-season, either. He seems to like the bright lights.
I like Justin Turner but Justine Turner was pretty rad.
Martinez’s barrel rate was 3x Turner’s and hard hit rate was nearly 1.5 times that of Turner’s. If I were betting on which to have a better 2025, it would be Martinez
It’s funny. Their Baseball Savant page is the inverse of each other.
Martinez still has all the physical tools. He is hitting the ball hard and barreling everything up. Meanwhile, he whiffs a lot, chases a lot, and Ks a lot. Turner on the other hand is not hitting the ball exceptionally hard, he never has really. Nor is he barreling up a lot of balls. But his discipline is carrying his numbers above where the raw tools place him. He doesn’t chase, he doesn’t whiff, he rarely Ks, and he still walks a lot. Combine that with getting the absolute most out of his power with his launch angle, and you have a productive hitter.
So I guess it comes down to do you you think Martinez’s can out talent his poor approach? Or can Turner out approach his fading talent?
Or which approach ages best? It’s an interesting comparison.
The Quad A’s of West Sacramento would be wise to sign JT to play 3B/1B/DH.
Yes let’s replace Rooker with Turner. Genius move.
Rooker should be playing RF or LF. Turner is an upgrade over Seth Brown,
Or the Quad City DJs. Yay 90s!
Make JT Player/Manager for the Quad A’s of West Sacramento.
It’s been too long since player/manager was a thing
Lou Boudreau’s ghost is calling.
Definitley JDM. Above the 85th percentile of xwOBA, xSLG%, 94th percentile of barrel rate, and 78th percentile of exit velo. I like Turner, and he makes contact more frequently, but at this point, both have to rely on their bats to do the talking, and Martinez has the stronger engine to potentially do more damage.
In recent off seasons, similar players with even better last seasons than these guys have found themselves locked out of the league, not offered anything from anybody worth taking and quietly walked away from the game, even if it wasn’t on their terms.
I think it’s about that time for Martinez and I think Turner will have that time in 1-2 years unless he throws in the towel himself.
J.D. Martinez has, ever since going to the Red Sox and getting that extension, felt like a player everybody has been anticipating dropping off to the point of having negative value and he’s basically there, since he’s fairly one dimensional to begin with.
Justin Turner can still basically field and has a better overall performance in his all around play, so he can still plug in somewhere and be a solid platoon member.
Neither of them deserve Big Money anymore, both of them have essentially made their Big Money at this point anyway.
I think if Turner still wants to play just to play, he could potentially get paid a commensurate $2-$4M as a veteran to do it. Someone could pick him up- like, say, the Oakland A’s of Sacramento of Las Vegas. I genuinely think that’d be a fun pairing in Justin Turner’s professional playing twilight years.
But J.D. Martinez? Even if he wants to keep playing just to play, I think he’d have to accept a minor league deal with a very easy path to being called up to the majors or as a bench player or on a team that doesn’t need him and won’t be able to pay him, but will give him playing time. But he should not and likely will not get Big Money anymore.
And BTW- at this point, for Martinez, Big Money means like, $1.5M guaranteed, $500k of which is a buyout and $1.5M in incentives or something like that..
Turner has a season or two of veteran presence left in him and Martinez is cooked.
Very true. Owners think, when you can get almost the same or slightly less production from a player earning $760,000, why pay the $5-8 million Turner/Martinez would want? However, someone might drop $3 million to see if Martinez rediscovers his 2023 surge one last time, and Seattle really should resign Turner to split time with Raley. Seattle especially seems to be in a rut when it comes to developing hitters.
Old and slow vs old and slow….
I’m taking Brandon Belt
They should create an expansion team of only the guys who didn’t consider themselves retired but got shut out and forced into retirement:
Brandon Belt
Brett Gardner
JD Martinez
Manny Ramirez
Robinson Cano
Etc.
And then see how that team does overall.
Joey votto sadly
Votto was given a chance in Toronto, but his body gave out.
Adam Jones can be added to that list.
Neither.
This shouldn’t be close, JD was non-existent in the second half last year and is clearly done. Turner can still hit and has the ability to place some defense.
These faceoffs should be done during actual games and see who performs better it would bring live debates in here
I think the best answer is neither one. Both are getting old and in decline. Why spend money and waste a roster spot on either of them?
Turner to Boston makes sense
I remember when Turner batted just behind Ruth. Deadly duo.
Remember when Turner was paired with Hooch. Made quite the keystone combo
Both has-beens. Both need to retire.
It is interesting that the is not a ‘Neither’ option on this poll.
Turner for sure. Especially if it were give Matt Shaw a chance to establish himself. He can give michael Busch a break at 1B vs. Lefties. I would have Turner in the field no matter what the position he’s at over Patrick Wisdom. It’s sad that Wisdom at 33 is more of a defensive liability than Justin Turner at 40 and almost 41.
JD way better. Plus you’re getting his high baseball IQ
Whoever says Turner doesn’t know ball and are the casuals
Difficult to compare since Turner can still play the infield and has pitched an innings or two.
I like Turner but with J D being younger I am taking him.
Both are washed. They might be able to get crumbs from cheap non-contenders. Time to call it a day….
Toronto is a fit for both, both individually and together as they have DH/3B AB’s to give (though Turner playing 3B every day is probably a nuclear option).
Minnesota could use either/or. Kansas City says they are looking for another hitter. Colorado probably should DH Kris Bryant full time but could go with one of them. San Diego or the A’s could be possible (though the A’s probably less likey)
As a Twins fan, if Turner can play a competent first base, I say go with him. Martinez may have some more offensive upside, but I doubt he would fit at first base at this point.
Turner
Turner can still field at 3rd or 1st if need be and is not totally tethered to the designated hitter non-position game and can’t be a true catalyst JD Martinez never was a great fielder and really no team would even let him feel at this point. Thev more you play him the less you can rotate other players into the designated hittter.
Turner J D. Face/off? Like over acting Nic Cage swapped for over acting Travolta? Yes plz!
Not sure I’d say Turner has “never been much of a power threat” lol… don’t get me wrong he wasn’t ever JD Martinez level power but he his 27 HR twice (even if once was 2019) but he also just recently hit 23 HR for the Sox in 2023
In the poll, I chose Turner. It could just as easily been none of the above.
“Meanwhile” has to start the sentence. It can’t come in the middle between commas. How do you get this right once in the article but then screw it up a second time?
Martinez is only younger according to the calendar. He looks old and slow. He’s said to be a great clubhouse guy, helping teammates regardless of his own current abilities, but he’s clearly lost a step. Turner was never a speed defense guy but he’s no less so than he’s been in the past. For a one year deal, he’s the clear pick.