Free Agent Faceoff: Jose Quintana vs Andrew Heaney

The starting pitching options available in free agency have begun to dwindle with the start of Spring Training less than a month away, but a few interesting options still remain available. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta are the top names still available in free agency at this point, though they figure to come with a high annual salary in the case of Flaherty and cost their new club draft capital as a qualified free agent in the case of Pivetta. Meanwhile, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer stands alone at the top of the market for veterans likely to accept one year deals after Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander all found homes earlier this winter.

Overlooked in this free agent class, however, is a pair of solid mid-rotation lefties. Veterans Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana have garnered little if any buzz in the rumor mill to this point, but at this late stage in the offseason they stand out among the remaining crop of starters as some of the more reliable options still available. Ranked #25 and #31 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, Heaney and Quintana figure to be among the best arms available for clubs looking to bolster their rotation that don’t have room in the budget for a player like Flaherty or Pivetta. Even Scherzer could land a higher annual salary.

Quintana and Heaney have a number of striking similarities. From 2019 to 2021, both players posted an ERA north of 5.00 in less than 300 innings of work as they struggled to stay healthy and effective. Both players then appeared to take a major step forward in 2022, however, and since then have proven to be a reliable mid-rotation option despite occasional injury issues persisting. In Heaney’s case, his 2021 breakout came as a member of the Dodgers. While he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings of work due to injuries that year, he was dominant when healthy enough to pitch with a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and an incredible 35.5% strikeout rate.

That breakout led Heaney to sign a two-year deal with the Rangers in free agency and, though he hasn’t quite reached that level of elite production since then, he’s managed to stay healthy and provide solid results to Texas. In 307 1/3 innings for the Rangers over the past two years, the lefty has pitched to a roughly league average 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His strikeout rate has dipped to just 23.2% during his time in Dallas, but even in spite of that, he’s shown positive signs for the future. That’s particularly true of the 2024 season, when he cut his walk rate from 9.4% to a career-best 5.9% while his barrel rate dipped from 10.2% down to just 8.3%. Those improvements in batted ball results and walk rate allowed Heaney to post a 3.95 SIERA last year, good for 32nd among starters with 160 innings of work last year and sandwiched between Seth Lugo and Sean Manaea on the leaderboard.

By contrast, Quintana continued to get above average results this year with a 3.75 ERA (105 ERA+) in 31 starts for the Mets but started to show troubling signs in terms of peripherals. Quintana struck out just 18.8% of opponents for the second year in a row in 2024, but saw his walk rate climb to 8.8% while his barrel rate crept up to 6.7%. All that left Quintana with a 4.57 SIERA that ranks just 53rd among qualified starters. Father Time is also on Heaney’s side, as he’s roughly two-and-a-half years younger than Quintana, who will celebrate his 36th birthday later this month. Of course, that aforementioned barrel rate is still better than Heaney’s figure from 2024 and his career-best 47.4% groundball rate suggests he may be able to continue limiting damage and outperforming his peripherals going forward.

It’s also worth noting that Quintana has the stronger overall track record than Heaney. Although he experienced a blip in productiveness from 2019 to 2021, he had seven above-average seasons under his belt prior to that and since then has posted an excellent 3.39 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP in 411 2/3 innings of work. Though he’s struck out just 19.4% of opponents in that time, that ERA is tied for 22nd among qualified starters since the start of the 2022 campaign, on par with the likes of Dylan Cease and George Kirby. While it seems unlikely that Quintana would be able to replicate that elite production going forward without improving on his strikeout and walk numbers, it’s possible his grounder-heavy profile could work quite well in front of a strong defense.

If your club was looking to add a veteran southpaw to its rotation, which would you prefer? Would you value Heaney’s relative youth and stronger peripherals in his platform campaign? Or would you overlook Quintana’s age and concerning peripherals in favor of his more consistent track record and knack for keeping the ball on the ground? Have your say in the poll below: