Dodgers To Sign Tanner Scott

The Dodgers and left-hander Tanner Scott are in agreement on a four-year, $72MM deal according to a report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. According to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, Scott’s deal includes deferred money and a signing bonus. Robert Murray of FanSided reports that the signing bonus is $20MM while the contract includes $21MM in deferred money.

Scott was ranked as the #14 free agent in this winter’s class in MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where we predicted that the lefty would land a four-year, $56MM deal. His deal with L.A. comes in well above that mark, but that’s not necessarily surprising given reports earlier this month that indicated Scott could land a deal with an average annual value in the $20MM range. Ultimately, this deal doesn’t go quite that far, though his $18MM AAV is still quite the premium for his position. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Scott is tied for the third-highest AAV for a reliever in free agent history alongside Liam Hendriks’s deal with the White Sox with the pair trailing only Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. Meanwhile, it’s the fifth-highest total guarantee a reliever has ever landed in free agency behind only Diaz, Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen.

The $21MM in deferred money in the deal could lower the contract’s net present value below this tier of elite closer, but it’s hard to deny that Scott belongs in that elite company based on his incredible numbers the past two seasons. He was among the very best relievers in the sport last year with a 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 28.6% strikeout rate. His peripheral numbers were even stronger in 2023, as he struck out an eye-popping 33.9% of opponents and posted a 2.31 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Among qualified relievers over the past two seasons, Scott ranks fourth in ERA and fifth in FIP. Only Félix Bautista of the Orioles and Cade Smith of the Guardians rank above Scott in both categories, and neither pitched in both the 2023 and ’24 seasons at the big league level.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Scott is necessarily completely infallible. The southpaw struggled badly with his command earlier in his career, and those issues were a key factor in the lefty surrendering a pedestrian 4.61 ERA and 3.91 FIP over his first six seasons in the majors. That’s left Scott without the lengthy track record of many of his peers in late-inning relief, and even this past season saw Scott walk 12.2% of his opponents. Scott managed to stay elite despite that hefty number of free passes by keeping the ball in the park the past two seasons, and the changes he’s made to improve his batted ball outcomes appear to be sustainable. Opponents barreled up 5.4% of their batted balls off Scott prior to the 2023 season, but the past two campaigns have seen that number drop to just 4.0%. Likewise, Scott’s Hard-Hit rate dropped from 36.2% in his career prior to 2023 down to just 26.7% over the past two seasons.

The Dodgers are clearly betting on his performance to remain as elite as it has been the past two seasons. L.A. got an up-close look at Scott’s dominance during last season’s NLDS, when he pitched three scoreless innings against the club for the Padres and garnered five strikeouts- four of which were against Shohei Ohtani. Looking ahead to the 2025 season, they’ll add Scott’s high-octane arm to an already strong bullpen that also features Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, and Alex Vesia in the late innings. With Scott presumably taking over as the club’s closer, the Dodgers will now have the flexibility to use those leverage arms earlier in the game. That’s particularly useful in the case of Vesia, as he was the Dodgers’ only late-inning relief option from the left side last season.

Per RosterResource, the signing of Scott has pushed the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 up to just under $369MM, with a nearly matching luxury tax payroll of just under $371MM. Those figures don’t factor in the deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that still puts the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 more than $40MM higher than 2024, which was already a franchise record. They’re the only team spending even $300MM in payroll this year, and one of just three teams (alongside the Phillies and Yankees) with a luxury tax payroll above that marker. The upper limit on the club’s payroll capacity is unknown, but signing Scott (and Roki Sasaki last week) appear to have checked the final boxes the Dodgers were known to be pursuing upgrades for this winter. While further upgrades to the roster certainly can’t be ruled out, the club’s roster has very little uncertainty and it would hardly be a surprise if the Dodgers mostly stood pat over the final weeks before Spring Training beyond perhaps a long-anticipated deal to bring franchise stalwart Clayton Kershaw back into the fold.

With Scott off the market, right-handers Carlos Estévez and Kirby Yates are perhaps the two best options still available in free agency for clubs on the hunt for bullpen help. Jansen, David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, and Tommy Kahnle are among the other late-inning relief arms available. The Red Sox, Braves, and Cubs were among the other teams that have been connected to Scott throughout the winter, while the Rangers and Diamondbacks are among other clubs known to be in the market for late-inning relief help at this point in the offseason.