Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. spoke with reporters on Monday afternoon to conclude the organization’s Winter Warm-Up weekend. Unsurprisingly, he touched on the team’s biggest offseason storyline: the Nolan Arenado trade discussions.
Most notably, DeWitt said that the team wasn’t motivated to cut payroll in another area if they can’t line up an Arenado deal. “No, I don’t think so,” he replied when asked if a failure to trade the third baseman meant they needed to slash spending elsewhere (link via Katie Woo of The Athletic). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak made similar comments over the weekend, suggesting that ownership was supporting a higher payroll than the front office initially expected “because we haven’t been able to accomplish what we thought we would by now (on the trade market).”
Much of that is due to the no-trade rights of the Cards’ most expensive players. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray each indicated they preferred to stay in St. Louis rather than waive their no-trade clauses. Arenado was more open to a trade in theory, though he nixed a deal to the Astros. That confirmed he’d be particular about his next destination if he were to move.
The Cardinals are on the hook for $64MM of the $74MM owed to Arenado over the next three seasons. The Rockies are responsible for $5MM annually over the next two years. A combined $12MM in salary over the next two seasons is deferred, reducing the Cardinals’ portion of the contract’s remaining net present value to around $60MM.
St. Louis has primarily focused on salary relief. The Astros were reportedly set to assume at least $45MM of the remaining money had Arenado not vetoed the trade. With Houston quickly moving on, talks have quieted over the past month. Mozeliak made clear over the weekend that the Cardinals are still trying to line up a trade that makes sense for everyone involved. That has been more challenging than the organization anticipated.
Nevertheless, there’s still a chance for a late-offseason deal. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that there are multiple teams that would be open to circling back on Arenado if the Cardinals are open to paying down a bigger portion of the contract. It remains to be seen whether St. Louis will eventually be willing to do that, but they’re generally downplaying the need to make trades to cut spending at this point. There’s also the matter of free agency delaying the trade market. Alex Bregman remains unsigned and there’s surely some overlap between the teams involved on the two players.
Goold adds that some teams have called the Cardinals to see whether they can talk Gray off his opposition to waiving the no-trade clause. There’s nothing to suggest the righty is reconsidering that stance, though there’s no harm for other teams in trying to change his mind. Gray is owed $65MM over the next two seasons on his backloaded three-year free agent deal. He turned in a 3.84 ERA over 28 starts during his first season with St. Louis.
Fleet Admiral Ackbar says, “It’s a re-build”
The Cardinals should just keep Arenado. He is still a fine player, just not a #3 in the lineup hitter anymore. Move him to 7th in the batting order, and then his offensive stats lineup better plus he will provide above average defense at 3rd base.
You’re right. The money isn’t that bad and Arenado still offers value. If we are stuck with him, just stop batting him 3rd or 4th. He is no longer that hitter. Marmol will prob do that anyway since he bows to the vets.
DeWitt is a billionaire. Of course he doesn’t have to cut payroll, he is choosing to. Maybe he is just tired of Arenado sulking and wants him gone. I still think he will be traded to a team that misses out on Bregman. Either way, there is no justification for not making any other moves while this plays out. They have the money to do more, a lot more. May be a long season unless Gorman and Walker surprise us all and figure things out.
For whatever reason this sounds more like a save face quote in that the returns aren’t what they hoped for. Why a team rep would announce certain things unless misdirection is a question I’ve often asked myself. I know when I negotiate professionally, I don’t spill my hand as it gives the other side leverage.
Do you really think a team is going to offer the Cardinals less just because they publicly said they were shopping him?
Either someone wants him or they don’t. And if that team wants him he has to say yes. It’s not about leverage because the team doesn’t have to trade him and frankly I don’t think they even want to.
BITA, when someone publicly says they want to reduce payroll, yes I do think they get at least at first lower offers to see how bad they want to get rid of a contract. I negotiate sometimes very large construction accidents and typically use a mediator to funnel back and forth discussions. Instead of just making a counteroffer, I’ll ask the neutral what he or she recommends. They’re privy to discussions with the other side and sometimes their suggestion is less than what I was going to offer. I can always counter with less than the mediator’s suggestion but once the higher amount is put out there, it affects all future negotiations.
Cardinals front office has gone back and forth on so many things. Contreras moving off C, buying at the deadline and taking on more $, insinuating a large payroll reducing, now little to no payroll reduction is good enough. My prediction is we will be buyers next month and sign Bregman and Alonso
DeWitt in essence saying we have no one else to trade that would save us on payroll so we are going with a larger payroll than we expected. We suck at getting trades done so we will just have to suck it up for a year.
It’s simply untrue to state the Cardinals don’t have anyone else to trade to save on payroll.
There’s no single player that would save as much as Arenado, but Helsley ($8.2 million in 2025) and Fedde ($7.5 million) both have positive trade value.
Matz is making $12.5 million in 2025. That’s underwater, but I think another team would take on some of that (maybe $5 million?) in a pure salary dump by the Cardinals.
So that adds up to ~$20 million in 2025 payroll, and all 3 of those players are FA’s after 2025.
The team appears to be pursuing a middle-ground of neither a big teardown, nor making any significant outside additions. I have my doubts that’s a wise strategy, but it seems to be their plan.
You are correct about Fedde. Helsley does have trade value, but Mo has said the Cardinals are not trading him. Matz has so much negative trade value that they could not save money by trading him. They would have to attach a prospect to get rid of him.
That adds up to $7.5 million. Not enough to bother. Just run it back and see if they can win a weak Central.
Why they take on the contract if they couldn’t afford it? Everyone else in the league knew his numbers were inflated from playing at coors
His best offensive season (149 wRC+) actually came with the Cardinals in 2022. But he’s about to turn 34 – age comes for us all.
Goldschmidt won the MVP at age 34.
Dude they aren’t trying to trade the contract because they can’t afford it. They are trying to trade him because he asked to be traded.
The Cardinals are trying to trade Arenado to reduce payroll, either to save money OR to use the savings elsewhere on other team needs. Arenado is willing to be traded if he were to go to a team of his choice (seems to be the Red Sox but may be other teams as well) where he thinks he can win. Contreras and Gray both said they were uninterested in waiving their no-trade clauses, so moving Arenado is their only option to open salary space.
From Cardinals PBO:
“We both remain optimistic that both parties will remain happy somehow,” Mozeliak said during the Winter Meetings. “[Arenado remaining with the Cardinals] is a possibility, but I’m not sure that puts us where we want to be. From a financial standpoint of trying to move our payroll – there are certainly other ways to do that, but [trading Arenado] would be a big help. It’s financial, but it also creates a runway for someone else.”
“These decisions are not something we ever take lightly, but when you understand the profile of what this team looks like, and after meeting with him in Colorado, he’s not demanding a trade or telling me that I have to do it, but in the best interests of both sides, I’d like to try and find him some place,” Mozeliak said.
Arenado came to the team and asked for a trade. After he did that the team figured they wouldn’t mind the salary relief. But if Arenado hadn’t asked for a trade I don’t think they would be trying to trade him.
And since that quote the owner just came out and said something a bit different. Thats why this post exists.
I don’t believe the team tried to trade Contreras or Gray. I think thats a made up report. And why the heck are the only options to save salary space those 3 guys???? That makes no sense at all.
In the quote I posted above, the Cardinals PBO said he went to Arenado in Colorado to discuss moving him.
Here is a quote from the PBO from 2 days ago:
“Well, I’m hopeful,” Mozeliak said of an Arenado trade that the club hopes will improve its financial standing while also opening up playing time for younger players. “When you say ‘confident’ or ‘putting odds on it,’ I think it’s still a flip of a coin. I know that it’s a top priority for the organization and myself. So, I’ll be laser focused on that until it’s not.
“I think priority one, two and three is still [trading] Nolan.”
MLB.com, and many other reputable sources have reported that Contreras and Gray are unwilling to waive their no-trade clauses. Gray has made multiple statements this off-season which support this.
Those 3 have the biggest remaining contacts on the Cardinals. The only other two with salaries over 10mil are Mikolas and Matz, both of whom are on the last year of their deals. The Cardinals apparent lack of effort in moving those two is likely an indicator that the moving of payroll isn’t about the 2025 season as much as it’s about future seasons.
Yeah Arenado asked to be traded and they went to Colorado to discuss it with him.
No credible report says Contreras and Gray refused to waive their no trade clause.
Making up narratives based on “indicators” is your mistake.
Clearly Credible insider Joel says that no credible sources have said anything about the cardinals this offseason! (Well unless it was something positive!)
They have been so hard to watch for the last couple years. Looks like a lot of the same for this year.
They can keep the team as is. That’s not really much of a revelation. They just shouldn’t do that if no other holes are going to be patched up.
Holding Fedde in particular makes no sense to me. Why risk injury or performance decline on him?
Fedde wasn’t all that good for the Cardinals in 2024. What the heck do you think he’s worth?
People keep talking about making these trades but for what? What prospects are the team missing out on?
He’s a bargain at his salary.
They’ll get nothing at the deadline for him if he’s hurt or regresses. You talk about all these Cardinals pitchers that you want to see start—-there’s a rotation spot opened up. Fedde will get an actual prospect back today.
Matz/Mikolas’ will not be able to be dumped off without attaching something of value.
If cutting payroll was such a priority then why has the team traded ZERO PLAYERS? And why would they be trying so hard to trade a guy with a NTC?
Arenado wants out. That is a fact. Whats not a fact is the team wants him out.
If Arenado does get traded i think the favorites are the Mets and the Red Sox in that order. The Red Sox would be a little complicating because they would have to move Yoshida in a separate deal and they would have to move Devers to 1b. The Mets i think will sign Bregman or Alonso or trade for Arenado. And it sounds like they have moved on from Alonso. The Mets also have a right handed hitting center fielder to trade which the Cardinals need and that could convince the Cardinals to pay down the salary.
If you think the Mets want Arenado, you know nothing about David Stearns and how he operates.
He won’t trade for an older player to block guys like Luisangel Acuña, Brett Baty, and Ronny Mauricio from showing what they can do.
Baty is on his way out. He’s shown what he can do and it isn’t much.
Acuna can play a lot of positions
So can Mauricio. And I wouldn’t mind the Cardinals taking Mauricio back in the deal.
The Mets are trying to win and have a huge payroll. All they have done this offseason to their lineup is swap Alonso for Soto. Thats an upgrade but thats really about it. I think they make another big move.
0% chance he goes to the Mets, especially if the Mets would have to trade prospects of any value.
“Mets also have a right handed hitting center fielder to trade”
I’m not sure who you’re referring to here but if it’s Jett Williams or even Acuña, you’re delusional. Cardinals would have to pay Arenado’s entire salary for the Mets to consider this. And I’m not overvaluing prospects here, just illustrating how reluctant the Mets have been to part with any prospects.
Tyrone Taylor isn’t a prospect.
The Red Sox don’t need to trade Yoshida. They are ~31mil under the CBT (and may choose to go over) and Yoshida should be able to play the OF again after his labrum surgery (he played all last season with the injury and couldn’t throw a baseball). If they did trade Yoshida, then Devers would DH (which would make him unhappy) as it makes no sense to move Devers to 1b then Casas to DH.
Arenado would be a part time player on the Red Sox, a useful part time player, but his salary is quite high for that role and he’s about to turn 34. So not a perfect fit (the no trade clause creates issues as they would need to make room in 2026 when they go after VGJ who seems to have picked Boston as his top destination – if the money is right).
The Red Sox need to trade a left handed hitting outfielder. They have too many lefty hitters. Anthony and Campbell are top 10 overall prospects and ready to play soon.
Part time player? Dude I usually don’t mute someone for lack of knowledge but I am thinking about it. Arenado would be the 3b. Devers and Casas would split time between DH and 1b. Why is that so complicating?
I would think the Dodgers.
Net present value. Oh Yeah !