The Cubs are among the teams that have discussed right-hander Dylan Cease with the Padres, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. There’s no indication that the two sides are close to any sort of deal or that discussions were anything more than exploratory.
Cease, 29, has been bandied about the rumor mill for much of the winter as a payroll-crunched Padres club struggles to find ways to address myriad roster holes. A free agent following the 2025 season, Cease is slated to earn $13.75MM this year. Trading him for a controllable, lower-cost outfielder could affordably plug one lineup hole while also freeing up more than $13MM to backfill the rotation. Alternatively, the Friars could build a Cease deal around controllable, low-cost (and also less-proven) rotation pieces and look to reallocate Cease’s salary to a bat that’s yet to find a home in free agency or a trade target in the outfield. The Padres have at least gauged interest in impending free agents like Michael King, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez (signed through 2027 but with an opt-out next offseason) under similar rationale.
The Cubs already have a deep rotation featuring Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad. Free agent signee Colin Rea gives them a veteran sixth option, and Chicago has younger names like Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian on the 40-man roster, with prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell climbing the minor league ladder.
Given that stock of arms, the Cubs don’t necessarily need another starting pitcher, but there’s an argument that some of that depth and their impressive stock of high-end position prospects could be condensed into a front-of-the-rotation arm like Cease. Morosi highlighted top outfield prospect Owen Caissie as a potential piece of a Cease trade in an on-air segment this morning, albeit in fairly speculative fashion.
Coupling Caissie or another touted outfielder like Kevin Alcantara with a controllable arm that lacks Cease’s ceiling but could be a third or fourth starter (e.g. Wicks, Assad) could hold some appeal to a Padres club that lacks rotation depth, a clear left fielder or designated hitter, and has a shaky-at-best collection of options to fill out manager Mike Shildt’s bench. Anecdotally, a trade involving Cease and Caissie would send each player back to their original organization; Cease was a sixth-round pick of the Cubs who was traded to the White Sox in exchange for Jose Quintana, while Caissie was a Padres second-rounder who went to the Cubs as part of the Yu Darvish trade.
Outfield is an area of depth for the Cubs, who have Ian Happ in left field, young Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and trade acquisition Kyle Tucker in right field. The acquisition of Tucker has pushed slugger Seiya Suzuki into a primary DH role, though he’ll surely still see some corner time depending on injuries or off-days for other members of the outfield. Tucker is a free agent at season’s end, but Happ and Suzuki are both signed through 2026 while Crow-Armstrong can be controlled all the way through 2030. Both Caissie and Alcantara are generally viewed as MLB-ready pieces who could step into the majors as soon as this season after posting big seasons in the upper minors in 2024. (Alcantara made a brief MLB debut late in ’24 already.) Infielder and fellow top prospect James Triantos also got a bit of work in the outfield in 2024. He’s on the cusp of his MLB debut as well.
The circumstances surrounding a potential trade of Cease are fairly similar to those of Corbin Burnes one year ago. While Cease has had a bit more volatility in terms of year-over-year results and doesn’t have a Cy Young Award to his credit, he’s a top-end starter with a relatively reasonable salary and one season of club control remaining. He’s unlikely to sign an extension, as was the case with Burnes, but could net a new team a draft pick if and when he rejects a qualifying offer next winter. That holds some inherent value and helps to offset the prospect loss required to pry Cease loose in a trade. The Orioles sent two MLB-ready players who’d garnered top-100 fanfare — infielder Joey Ortiz and lefty DL Hall — to the Brewers along with a 2024 competitive balance draft pick (No. 34 overall).
That was a steep price to pay, and perhaps Cease’s value isn’t quite to that same level, but it shouldn’t be far off. At the very least, it provides a rough blueprint for what San Diego could reasonably seek in exchange for a power-armed 29-year-old who landed second in 2022 American League Cy Young voting.
Payroll-wise, the Cubs have more than enough space to add Cease’s salary while still remaining comfortably south of the $241MM luxury threshold and leaving space for in-season acquisitions. RosterResource projects Chicago at a bit more than $207MM in luxury obligations after their recent acquisition of Ryan Pressly, giving them about $34MM of cushion between their current standing and that tax barrier.
NL Central Title is on the menu ladies and gents
No doubt. Just head a bit North to Milwaukee to get served.
I’m a Cubs fan but that was a good zinger, well done
Yup! Wrigley North. The only time the Bob Ueckers sell out ever is when the Cubs visit Wrigley North. The same can be said about Wrigley West aka Coors Field. Fun fact: The Rockies raise the prices of their tall boys a dollar only when the Cubs visit.
At Wrigley we fly World Series Champs flags not nl central flags
The Cubs are looking to be significantly better than last year. Perhaps as much as 5 games. Do you believe that the Brewers are likely to be as good as last year?
Amen
Only took mlbtr 3 hours to post yet another article about Cease trade as a rumor. Will they? Wont they?…..3 hours later. Will they? Won’t they? Tomorrow am: will they, wont they? next week: will they? won’t they? Let’s do another poll
@brew this deep into the off-season and it feels like I’ve read some of the paragraphs a couple of dozen times already.
That’s a compliment to the Cardinals ya know..
Have discussed doesn’t mean much.
They had him, traded him for crap and will now give up something from the over rated farm system, So, still crap.
Trade the farm and keep him for one year too! No way they would resign him in 2026
Go Jed gooooo. Go Jed gooooo. Hey Chicago whaddaya say, if Dylan Cease was headed your way?
The cubs? NO, a thousand times NO!!!
Aaaah the rumors never Cease to amaze me. Will the rumors never Cease? I still am hoping for a Braves blockbuster to acquire both Cease and King, then to somehow miraculously extend them as AA tends to always do. Sometimes convincing a player they can get paid now versus waiting a year when they might be injured or have a down year before free agency can be difficult, but not impossible. Still hoping AA can do this. If he can, it will be like DeNiro says about Stallone in Copland “that cupcake makes a mess, we got a case again.” In this case, winning the World Series again.
Ralphus: I wouldn’t mind the Braves getting Cease, but Cease and King? What would AA have to give up to get both of them? Probably prospects or lower salaried players since the Pads are cutting budget.
a boat load of prospects
The Braves have the worst farm system in baseball. They would have to raid the MLB team to trade for either Cease or King. They are not a fit.
I would give up Bryce Elder, AJSS, Kelenic and Vernon T Waldrep a.k.a. Hurston from O Brother where are thou. is this enough?
The Natural
Actually, I like where the Cubs are right now. They traded Cam Smith but that was palatable with Matt Shaw being ready. They kept Horton, Caissie, Ballesteros, Triantos, Alcantara and Brown.
Trading Cam Smith to make the Cubs competitive for the division in 2025 with a Kyle Tucker rental was a move that I like a lot. Trading for Pressly was ok.
But if the Cubs want to get another starting pitcher then spend the money and sign Flaherty as a free agent. I don’t see trading multiple prospects for a one year rental of Cease or King.
The minimum cost would probably be Alcantara, Assad and Wick. More likely, the Padres would want Caissie (who they drafted) back in the deal. I prefer to keep both Caissie and Alcantara because I don’t see them re-signing Tucker.
All of this even assumes that the Padres want to trade Cease or King, and I have no idea if that rumor is valid or not.
I humbly disagree with your logic. We can’t possibly protect everybody. 7 prospects in top 100 with their clock ticking? It’s unfathomable to think we keep all. Some must be traded soon or lose value, as in lost for nadda.
Don
Appreciate your thoughts. Again, I am thinking that Caissie, Alcantara and Ballesteros will replace Tucker and Suzuki.
Triantos will replace Hoerner or play if Hoerner or Shaw are injured.
Horton will slot into starting rotation to replace Assad.
None of those five, if retained, will be wasted or lost value.
Don….it’s not only unfathomable to keep them all, it’s more unfathomable to think that a majority of them will have sustained success in the majors. Sure, it’s a guessing game (Shaw over Smith) but if there’s a combination that gives you a solid #2/3 pitcher like Cease in a walk year, you pull the trigger.
But if Tucker will be gone, having Caissie and Alcantara better ensures that one of the two will be very good in case the other falters.
@Don Both Cease and King are in last season prior to free agency. While I agree with the sentiment of can’t keep all prospects, I also believe and I on future is necessary.
Considering Tucker is going to hit free agency after the season as well, I’d say trading for a pitcher with multiple yrs of team control would be more ideal. They already look to be in good position to land a WC. I don’t see adding Cease or Kimg increasing there chances of being able to surpass Dodgers. With that in mind, I d say more rentals would be kind of a waste of prospect capital.
Now if they aquire a pitcher with a few years of team control, that’s more $ next offseason and better positions them to resign Tucker or fill his void.
Cubs are 7th in NL on power rankings. Fighting with the Brewers who are #8 for the Central or with the Diamondbacks who are #6 for that last wild card spot.
I’m not saying they should punt on the season by any means. Trading valuable prospect capital for numerous rentals is more of an all in on this season approach.
Now that they re on the cusp of the contenders I think they should add, but do so with an eye on staying and climbing that contender list in the next few seasons.
I’m not sure where they re at now as far as the luxury tax. If signing a player like Flaherty puts them over the top, trading for a rental could be the better option. That would make it less painful exceeding threshold in seasons to come. How they missed the mark by so little last season is mind boggling. Had to be someone on 40 man they could ve moved at last min of deadline for next to nothing that someone would ve been all over.
Don’t forget that Happ is very likely not resigned after his NTC is over. Hopefully Caissie or Alcantara proves to be a better fit.
I agree with going after Flaherty instead, but I’m not sure off hand what his contract demand is. Perhaps it’s too rich.
However, the Cubs should have enough to get it done unless they’re still entertaining nabbing Bregman.
Cubsin25
If the Cubs signed Bregman, I assume Shaw would move to 2B, and Nico would be traded for pitching. I don’t like that. Better to spend the Bregman money directly on pitching. But if the Cubs really have the money – and Ricketts gives the green light, then offer Tucker ten more years at $38 million per year. I just don’t believe Ricketts will be inclined to do that.
@MLB Top 100
Agree about Shaw to 2B if Bregman signed. We don’t know for sure if Hoerner is gonna be good to go, but we’ve got Triantos coming up soon too, so I wouldn’t want to get locked in long term with Bregman. The reports keep surfacing about a possible Bregman signing, so I’m not sure what’s going to happen. I’d rather spend on another high end SP too though.
10 years for Tucker would be nice. I’d buy a jersey to support it LOL
MLB Top, Sign Flaherty instead of Bregman?
Baseball is the best
Actually, I think if I am the Cubs I stand pat and feel confident that I have $20 million in space for the trade deadline if Cubs have the division lead or are within a game or two.
But if I was going to spend, yes, Flaherty would be the target, not Bregman or Scherzer.
MLB Top, sitting waiting for this state legislature to come back into session so this is going to be a long one. Hold onto your hat. A month ago the Padres asked the Red Sox for a top 10 overall prospect, two MLB players including our starting RF, and a starting pitcher that spent last year in AAA fit Cease. Morosi was the one that reported that trade possibility too.
The Brewers got the #63 prospect, a MLB pitcher with a 3.26 ERA in his 1st taste of action that was a 1st round pick and a top 100 prospect before being called up, and a supplemental 1st round draft pick. In essence 3 Top 100 type players.
Why do you think the Cubs could have a guy at the bottom of the Top 100 be the headliner of a trade for the same guy? I don’t see that happening unless they were including Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and a MLB position player as well. Brown and Wicks are two guys at about the same level as the two pitchers the Padres asked for from the Red Sox. The Padres are not a fit for Shaw, but that is the level of prospect that they asked the Red Sox for as the main piece in trade.
To answer your question at the end of your post, I think the Padres don’t want to trade Cease but they are willing to trade him if some team overpays for him. We saw that in what they asked for him from the Red Sox.
I don’t see any reason to think they are going to make a trade just to dump payroll. At this point to do that they could not take on more than $1.7 million in return for Cease. If they traded King they would still be over the CBT if they took on no MLB salaries. That ship has sailed for the Padres and unless the trade is helping them win this year, there is no reason for them to make a move at all. Run it back and if they are not in contention get what they can at the deadline for multiple players knowing they have at least a $55 million lower payroll in 2026.
Haven’t spellchecked, so if you see a fire where a for would fit better, you will have an idea of what I have been talking to this state legislature about.
Hope this is a good read. Have a great day.
Baseball is the best
I agree with you – in so far as what I would ask for if I was the Padres – exceeds what I would pay if I were the Cubs.
Padres are sitting at about 246m in tax payroll. Trading long or cease would drop them below.
Simm, with Diaz, Cots has the Padres at $249.5 million and Roster Resource has then at $248.9 with 24 players on the roster. Their minimum payroll is $250.6 to $251.2 million. In the past Cots has been closer in their CBT calculations than Roster Resource so I quote them in any posts I make.
Trading King would reduce that by $8 million and require adding a minimum of $760k. They could not get under the $241 million CBT by trading him alone.
Cease is at $13.75 million. Trading him for 3 players that make the major league roster at the MLB minimum like the asking price from the Red Sox would put the Padres $1.7 million under the CBT.
I dont know how much that matters anyways.
If they are good they will likely add at the deadline and be over. If they aren’t good they will be trading players and be under anyways.
The only issue with going over is if they keep players like king and cease. Not getting the 1st round QO for them would suck. Perhaps that’s also why they may trade them.
Cubs wouldn’t only be getting cease but a pick around 34th as well if they don’t keep him.
Sometimes that’s easy to forget.
Simm
Good point, if you acquire a QO pick by not re-signing Cease, that is a decent asset.
Not enough for me to trade away the outfielders who will replace Tucker and Suzuki though.
I could even see Suzuki to the padres if they trade for Suarez and Cease. He didn’t see to happy about being the dh. Maybe a Suzuki, Brown Assad.
Though I don’t think they will go after Suarez after the Pressly signing. He seems to have an issue with not being the closer. Perhaps Matsui or Wandy Peralta…though the wouldn’t do all that for them. Just throwing out other names.
This keeps getting regurgitated on this board.
Where did Jon Morosi say this? I haven’t seen any of this from a reputable source that the Pads asked the RS for that package.
I’m all for this trade, but the Cubs’ seem to be trying to load up with players on the last year their contracts. Then-he gone.
Brown, Assad, and Caissie!
Two of those guys, not all three.
Maybe so. Guys with hit tool question marks typically bust at a much higher rate.
Caissie feels like a potential platoon bat to me with those issues. Assad is a generic back end arm.
I really like Brown and think he’s a potential Michael King type find. I’d make sure he was in.
Jbig- I think you are right. Assad is like snell but never has the second half snell. Good stuff can’t go very deep because of his pitch count.
Brown seems a little better.
Cassie K rate isn’t good and probably worse in the majors. His power is very intriguing though. If you can bat him 7-8-9, he would probably fine.
Probably Canario and a top 10 prospect. Canario is out of options. He is a likely trade candidate to a team that needs OF options.
Assad and Alcantara Especially Caissie. He’s on the untouchables list. Or should be. Not Brown either.
If the Cubs want Cease they will have to give up something good. Thats how this stuff works.
That’s true but he’s also a rental. So guys like Caissie, Horton and Brown are not on the table and jed needs to block Preller’s number if he wants any of those 3.
If the Padres want to shed payroll, they’ll have to make some – possibly large – concessions. They already showed their hand. That’s how this stuff works.
If Cease is available there are tons of teams interested. If the Cubs want to get him they will have to compete with the rest of the league.
Why can’t you have a realistic conversation about this?
And giving up their 3rd best prospect for a rental is not worth it for 1 year of Cease.
The Cubs gave up the number 1 prospect in all of baseball for a rental once upon a time.
Was that worth it? Pretty sure that’s the only championship you have seen in your lifetime. Unless you are 130……
Desperate times call for desperate measures, but he was the Cubs top prospect ranked in the 20s overall. At the end of season, Gleyber was top 5.
Yeah I can’t see including Caissie for yet another rental that will walk next winter. Are the Cubs a Dylan Cease away from contending w the Dodgers? No.
Canario and Assad/Wicks. MAYBE Alcantara instead. Possibly throw another low level guy. If they can expand the deal to include Suarez then the Cubs are really talking about actually contending for the pennant.
theres about 5 other players that they can shed payroll with besides Cease/King. Reports are they’re just looking to stay under the CBT.
Other teams want these guys, and they’ll probably only deal one of them.
Pitchers of Ceases caliber got 200+m in Free agency. He’s cheap. He will net a haul.
If the Cubs can’t compete with the Dodgers then why trade for Tucker?
Remind me again how many WS the Pads have?
i agree- these are the 2 pieces they can trade and get something in return. Cease makes 13.5m- on a 1 year deal he would easily get 25m and whomever gets him at least gets a pick too if they give him a QA. So the excess value is about 12m on the contract (arguably up to another 10m or so). Then the pick is worth another 5-10m if it is after the 1st round.
So you need to offer about 20-30m in excess value- that is a top 25-75 prospect in value.
Dude Cubs fans shouldn’t be talking trash about championships lol.
Neither should SD fans.
Cease easily would get more than 25 million a year. But thats not the only thing to consider here. You don’t have to commit long term to him that’s a big benefit toast team that acquires him. His surplus value i think is about 35 million. And trade simulator thinks it’s 33. And that’s either Cassie or Horton plus Wicks.
Pads are no longer as concerned with shedding payroll, according to recent reports. Just seeing what they can get for players headed to free agency, to fill a hole or 2.
Ah yes, the good old “according to recent reports” without a citation. I always believe those reports.
Cubs25- Are you blaming the Pads for *trying*?
Huh?
Cease probably gets 40+ on a 1 year deal
Log, Morosi reported that the Padres asked for Mayer, a much better prospect than Cassie, in discussions with the Red Sox.
James, that breakdown fits with what Morosi reported that the Padres asked for from the Red Sox. Mayer, Abreu and Fitts, and a SP prospect that was in AAA last year.
To edge Milwaukee and crush the dirty birds
gotta give something to get something
I would do Assad, Wick and Killian for one year of Cease or King. I think the Padres would say a quick “no” to that package
Cubs are unlikely to fork over $400+ million for Tucker so I think the smart move is keeping BOTH Caissie and Alcantara for the outfield, Triantos for the infield, and Ballesteros for DH. My near untouchables are Horton, Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos and Ballesteros.
When you trade for 1 year of Tucker you are playing to win it all. You don’t then cheap out when you can add a top of the rotation starter who is under paid.
Prospects are prospects until they prove otherwise. Plus Jed is trading for his job.
Trading one good prospect (Smith) to win the division is acceptable when Smith plays the same position as Shaw. Yes, the Cubs would need luck to make it past the Dodgers, but in a seven game series upsets do happen.
Trading several prospects sets the franchose back for years. Tucker probably is a one year rental, Suzuki may only have two years left. They need those outfield prospects. I could even see trading Brown, Assad, Wick and Killian, but I would hold the line firm on not trading Horton, Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos and Ballesteros.
You aren’t getting cease while not trading Shaw, Cassie or Alcantara.
Brown, Assad types are secondary pieces.
I may be thinking of someone else, but wasn’t Cassie a Padres prospect at one time.
Comparing that to what the the Padres asked the Red Sox for Cease, add another position player prospect that the Padres could add to their bench at the very least and that is a solid possibility. Maybe someone like Aliendo who came out of the same CJ Baseball Academy in Venezuela as the Padres Ethan Salas?
Not a bad move for the Cubs. Good fit between club’s needs and player profile. Also could be a very good candidate for a quickie extension on his new team.
Good old fashion trade and extend.
He’s a Boras-repped Cy Young runner-up who’ll be a free agent at 30. It’s obviously always possible he signs, but I wouldn’t call him a good or likely candidate to do so.
Fair enough- but it also seems like a good fit even with free agency being a feeding frenzy of competing offers.
Obviously the benefit of free agency is that if the baseline agreed upon value would be, say, for simplicity’s sake, 5 years/$100M, someone like Boras knows that playing the long game could get that number to 8 years/$200M with teams successively outbidding each other by $5M per year here, an extra guaranteed year there, etc.
But also, Boras hasn’t been as slum dunk effective in recent past as he has been historically, so I kind of wonder if someone like Cease, whose profile has weakened a bit since 2022, might go for the sure money over the gamble of free agency, if a club were to trade for him and then set forth a very competitive free agency style extension offer.
Seems that it’s generally an agreed upon sentiment that Cease is looking at a 5-6 year deal in the $23M to $30M range, depending on how aggressive the market is for his services.
I could see the Cubs just taking that Bellinger-level money, plus inflation and offering it to Cease for an extra few years. So like 6 years/$172.05M.
I genuinely can’t see him topping that on the open market, even with Boras as his representative.
Cubs should ask the Padres what prospect they would want from the Orioles to pair with what the Cubs have for Tallion. The Cubs have too many starters already. Either that or ask them if they’ll take Steele and a prospect for Cease. Which makes the Boyd and Rea signings all the more perplexing to me. Now they’re looking at Scherzer? Does Hoyer really have a clue? He’s playing Fantasy Baseball.
Unclemike….you literally, in print, suggested asking the Padres if they would take Steele AND a prospect for Cease and you’re asking if Hoyer has a clue?
And you also said the Cubs have too many starters. In what baseball world does ANY team have too many starters? Didn’t the Dodgers have like 13 of them last season.
You’ve thrown out some pretty biased things against Jed, but you just crowned him as a genius with this post.
Aloha uncle, again does ole Jed have a plan? I think SD saw what Hoyer coughed up for a rental(s) from Houston and they want to get in on the action. See how desperate Jed is in his walk off year. I wish Jed would sign Robertson for 1 year, only costs $$$ and go into ST with what they have now. The ask for Cease is too high and we don’t want Jed draining the farm on rentals. I think the starting rotation is good and strengthen the BP helps greatly after all the blown saves the past 2 seasons. Mahalo!
Well there Cubby I’ll explain it to you if you want. Hoyer just signed 2 FA P’s. Not sure if you know this but you can’t sign a guy and trade them so that makes 2 guys you’re not trading. Also not sure if you know that Steele is also older than Cease and was a late bloomer. You’re not dealing Imanaga, So that leaves Tallion or Steele if you want Cease. So it’s either move Tallion and hope you get something back that you can add to the kitty to help get Cease. Or you just include Steele in the trade and the Pads get a cheaper but solid P back with a year of extra control, Or you do what I’d do and forget about Cease all together. The Cubs still have without Cease or Steele in 2026, Imanaga, Tallion or Steele, Boyd, Assad, Wicks, Brown, Birdsell, Wiggins, Noland and whatever FA the NEW POBO wants to add when Jed gets his walking papers and we hope for better days. Hope I spelled it out for you to comprehend dude.
Unclemike…including the traded pitchers you reference I think you listed 14 guys….clearly, without a doubt, Justin Steele is the best pitcher on the list
You do not trade Steele AND a prospect for Dylan Cease, which was your statement above.
The whole story is about Cubs talking about Dylan Cease….you’re the guy lighting up the Cubs for trading for one year of Kyle Tucker so now you’re trading a better pitcher with an extra year AND a prospect for Cease????
@Trill –
Maybe that’s where Cease’s market will settle, but I think it’s almost certain that Boras will advise Cease to hit FA with a plan to match or top the contracts for Burnes (6/$210) and Fried (8/$218).
If Cease has a 2025 season roughly in-line with 2024, there’s at least some chance he’ll get that much. Cease has pitched 165 to 190 innings each of the last 4 years. His 2023 down year looks better by peripherals (3.72 FIP vs. 4.58 ERA), so I don’t see it impacting Cease’s market at all, especially since it will be 2 years in the past by then.
Unless something really bad happens performance or injury wise during the 2025 season, I don’t see any chance that Cease signs a 6/$172 extension before hitting FA.
SO trade Steele- a pretty good pitcher in his own right for a pitcher with one year left on his contract. NOT.
Why can’t Cubby read. I clearly stated that what I would do is FORGET about Cease. It’s not worth it but Hoyer is an idiot and is chasing UNICORNS. Any shiny object and he follows it round like it’s gold. he’s already GOT ansolid staff and deep prospects. I HIGHLY DOUBT that Wicks, Horton and Brown will ALL go down again. Wicks lost 20 lbs and put on pure muscle so his core problems should be gone. He’s in great shape. If Hoyer wants to do something shore up the bench.The guys they’re planning on using are no better than the D-Bags they had last year. different names, Same crap. Why is he bothering to worry about Cease and Scherzer? Really?
@uncle
Honestly, your proposal of trading Steele AND a top prospect – is probably the lamest comment you have ever come up with. And I agree with Cubby, you have no right to ever criticize Hoyer again.
Steele is cheaper, has a year longer of control, and most of all, Better than Cease!
Aloha dog bone, forgive me I thought unclemike was being sarcastic and trying to say why if one even contemplated a trade of Steele it made no sense and he listed why. Then went on to say he’d keep things like they are and strengthen the bench a bit. I could be totally wrong.
For my part, I like where the rotation is right now without a Cease, King or Flaherty. I’d rather Jed, who already traded away players/prospects for rentals in Tucker and Pressly, to now spend some money on a BP arm like Robertson. Really sure up the back end of the pitching staff. And to uncle’s point, possibly pick up Canha who would be good when Busch needs a rest. Our Cubs have the funds to do this. We’ll see. Mahalo!
Hey KG, all is well.
No, I didn’t think the good uncle was being sarcastic about Steele. Seemed to me that not that long ago, he made this same suggestion. Anyone, in my opinion, who would even suggest trading Steele for Cease, should stop forever ripping Hoyer endlessly – as uncle does. Uncle is like a broken record. Or a broken clock, because he is right a couple times a day.
Aloha dogbone, I’ll speak for myself. I was a big supporter of Jed when he first became pobp. I knew he was left an organization in a rough place and Theo bolted a year early. Some say because the owner is “cheap.” But I felt even though Theo made some good transactions, he had some really bad ones that affected the team from the WS til he left.
So, Jed was going to pick up the baton on the development of the farm system. Theo began the process in his last year. Because Theo didn’t trade away certain players ie KB, Javy, Rizzo, etc when their value was at it’s highest, Jed had to deal with it. I give him credit for being able to bring back so much young talent at that 2021 trade deadline.
I’m in the SF Bay Area. I blessed to be in ball through college. Many friends/colleagues made it to the “show” and some into FO across the country. One such case is/was the Oakland A’s. When they signalled after the 2021 season they would start to trade off some of their core players, I thought what a great opportunity for the Cubs! Might have to trade Brennan Davis, Howard, Killian who they just got from the Giants for Matt Olson! A great replacement for Rizzo, plays GG defense and has pop/produces at the plate. Olson had controllable years and I hoped the Cubs would extend him. But no, nothing. Then the following year Sean Murphy becomes available and same thing, nothing. Yes Jed made some notable signings but no impactful trades for very good players that weren’t rentals.
At least Theo in 2014/2015 was making moves, had a plan to get the team positioned to make a post season run. Then during the 2016 season when Theo made a big impactful move for a rental in Chapman giving up Torres and other players, it made sense. The thinking was that the Cubs were 1 relief/closer away from a championship opportunity.
Fast forward to today, the team before the off season began was no where near good enough to make it into the post season, let alone going deep into the playoffs. And no where near a championship team. So, with a stronger farm system, some on the verge of coming up, many thought the FO strengthens the BP because of so many blown saves the past 2 seasons. Get a catcher to pair with Amaya and a 1B with some pop that can fill in for Busch when needed and DH. The only exception would be a Soto but look at the Cubs, largest contract since 2016 was JHey’s. So I didn’t expect much there.
The next thing you know, before Cody has been traded, Jed has traded away our current 3B, future 3B that was only drafted 4mos prior with a higher ceiling as well as Wesneski for a rental in Tucker. I know he makes the team better but they are not “one” Tucker away from a championship like they were with Chapman. Do you you honestly think the ownership is going to extend him for $400mil+? This is a question I’ve asked myself.
Then it hit me, Jed who I had supported, was in his walk off year. He hadn’t made certain moves in the previous years but now is trying to do it all in 1 off season. What’s his plan?
Sorry for the long post. I’m not confident in his judgement now, especially if he trades Assad plus a Caissie or Shaw away for another rental in Cease. Why build up a strong farm system, just to trade it all away for rentals? I cannot speak for uncle Mike or anyone else, just myself: I think Jed should stop trading away talent, spend $$$ if they need another starter or BP arm and that’s it. Then let the new pobo take over. May need a new owner too. You take care now. Mahalo!
Since they deleted My reply for the horrific term Dumb a** while describing Hoyer I’m out on this whole thread. Adios. The woke carries on.
Uncle Mike and Cubby2025
I agree with Uncle Mike to forget about Cease and agree with Cubby2025 to definitely keep Steele.
You build up the farm so you can then makes trades to make it a championship caliber roster. Every team has done it including the dodgers, Yankees ect.
Also these rentals will also return a 1sr round pick back. So it’s Ceaae and a first. That has a lot of value. It’s not just one year’s worth of value. They also would be trading some of the mlb team and a prospect. It’s not like they are trading Shaw, Cassie and Alcantara. It’s likely one of them with a guy like Assad/brown/wick types. We also don’t know if a guy like Suarez would be involved.
Aloha Simm, I hear you. I must correct something you mentioned, if I am mistaken please let me know. Per the current CBA agreement if a team takes part in revenue sharing, then depending on how much the departing player signs for dictates if they receive a comp pick right after the 1st round ends or right after the 2nd round ends. Having said that, the Cubs are not one of these revenue sharing teams.
So a non revenue taking team, like the Cubs can at best receive a pick after the end of the 2nd round. But if the Cubs go over the CBT threshold which they did this past season, then that comp pick comes after the 4th round ends. Thus it does matter for a non revenue team, whether or not they trade away for players that would qualify for a qualifying offer. In this case, Cease does qualify for a QO and the best the Cubs could receive if he signs with another team would be a pick just before the 3rd round starts. So, trading away a Shaw or even Caissie would hurt because both were picked above the start of the 3rd round. And again, if the Cubs go over the CBT threshold the comp pick comes after the 4th round. So a non revenue taking team has to think hard about trading for a rental, even if they qualify for the QO offer. Hope that makes sense. Take care now. Mahalo
Thanks MLB Top….but it needs to be noted and is easy to see that Uncle clearly said to forget about cease AFTER his ludicrous Steele and a prospect for Cease was called out.
He pivoted quite quickly to deflect the purpose of my post, telling me about the signings the Cubs can’t trade.
My post was the trading steele and anything for Cease is dumb and is beyond anything jed would even cook up.
It wasn’t until he realized the his foot was in his mouth that he need to say to forget Cease.
Cease is a definite ‘max effort’ guy. He’s also not the biggest built guy around. And he’s also already had TJ.
I’d steer clear of any long term desires, when thinking about trading for him. I’d limit my package value with that in mind.
Cease had the preemptive TJS when Cubs drafted him out of HS, yet he is the most durable SP in all of MLB. Don’t believe he has missed any start since WSox called him up for rookie debut.
Makes more sense to wait a year, sign him in FA and keep the prospects.
Just what are the Cubbies up to this year? They’re seemingly looking to whip up a One-Year-Wonder-100-win-team again to simply dismantle it and lose 100 games the next 4 years…
dougjay: That would give the city of Chicago over 200+ losses a season. At this point, doable.
200 already happened in 2024.
Hoyer is going to lose his job if he doesn’t make the playoffs. This off-season definitely has little long term planning . Trading one of Alcantara or Caissie makes sense if you extend Tucker otherwise it’s pretty stupid.
You trade one of them and the other one can replace Tucker. Can’t play them all. And then they could sign Cease long term.
Nope. Keep Caissie and Alcantara. Tucker extension is fantasy. Caissie can play RF and slots in for Tucker. Suzuki is only signed through 2026 and Alcantara can play CF (if PCA falters or is injured) and Ballesteros can DH.
I think that takes Cubs out of the running for King or Cease. Open to offering Assad, Wicks, Killian, maybe Brown. Not open to trading Caissie, Alcantara, Horton, Triantos and Ballesteros.
Cubs can sign Flaherty or (less likely) Scherzer as a free agent if they want to add a starting pitcher. They already have Steele, Shota, Boyd, Taillon, Assad and Rea, with Horton, Brown and Wicks possibly available in the second half.
I’m not sure that Cubs need to do anything at this point, they are in position to compete for the division without having gutted the farm. I only liked the Cam Smith deal to rent Kyle Tucker because 3B was already a position of strength with Matt Shaw ready.
@dougjay:The Cubs have lost 100 games only twice in the last SIXTY years. The most recent being 12 years ago. Keep it just a skosh real.
Cubs lost 80+, white Sox lost 120+
its called Jed’s contract year.
Padres need to move Suarez before they look at King or Cease. Suarez off the books saves you MORE than King for 2025 and you have Adam or Estrada who can step in and close games. Matsui may take a step forward and be an option at the back end too.
Don’t forget Peralta was a solid pen piece for years until last year, and could be a bounce back candidate.
Actually I think 2025 he’s still cheaper than Cease, but next year bumps to $16 million or so. Definately worth trading now though.
Next year Suarez if he opts in is paid 8m a year for two years…total of 16m.
I only said Suarez saves more than King, not Cease. Regardless, the Padres need both Cease and King more than Suarez for 2025. Whoever ends up with Suarez’s contract the next three years, at some point, will be upset they have it. He had arm issues in 2023, then in 2024 either couldn’t or wouldn’t throw his changeup.
The clowns who “own” the Padres right now should just be pushing all in for 2025 though. Sure they’ll exceed the CBT but after this year they get loads of payroll coming off. They could shed Arraez, Cease, King, Suarez if he opts out and Hosmer’s money (finally) comes off the books. Just suck it up, spend a few bucks on 2025 and don’t risk ruining your fan support. As it sits, these guys are going to see a significant setback in the perception of the team among fans.
Where’d they get Estrada from anyway? He’s lights out.
I think he came up with the Cubs shortly and they cut him.
That’s a lot of words spent on something “exploratory”
Cubs trade for Cease, then trade Taillon to the Orioles.
Everybody wins!
Orioles have no room for another starter. And they need their prospects so they can compete in 2030.
Sure we do, Kremer can move to the bullpen and work as a long/swingman to start the year and then slide back into the rotation when someone inevitably gets injured or pitches their way out of the rotation.
Easy peasy.
Put Kremer in the pen and that would devalue him and hurt the Orioles chances of getting a draft pick in a few years. Fat chance of that happening.
What are you even talking about?
Are you day drinking?
lol what??! Kremer in the pen hurts our draft pick? That’s some ridiculous stuff.
I don’t see any guarantee that Sugano is better than Kremer either. We gave him $13MM but he’s completely unproven and I’m highly skeptical of guys with very low K rates from foreign leagues.
I am optimistic about Sugano being able to adapt his deep repetoire to MLB hitters, especially with a smart, analytical FO like the Orioles have, but I don’t disagree that he could wind up a total bust.
He would definitely get first crack at a rotation spot over Kremer if another, obviously better SP was added though (i.e. Taillon).
Not brown plz!
Cease and Suarez for Horton and alcantara.
Not Horton. Definitely not him. Alcantara and a non ranked prospect would get it done. He’s a rental. It he was 26 and had 3 years of team control that might be worth it.
It wouldn’t be Horton and Alcantara. One of those guys and someone else.
Nah. Too much for one year contracts. Cease is a top 40 pitcher not a top 10.
CY – 2 and 4 in the last 3 years while getting MVP 22 votes.
Not a top 10 – whatever.
He was also terrible in 2023 so he’s not the sure thing other top sp tend to be.
You mean he was league average in 2023?
Top 4 on CY 2 out of 3 years – run that by whoever you think is a “Top 10” and see how many you find.
And then, look at the year that they didn’t make top 4 and see how that 3rd year went.
Then get back to us.
League average by what, ERA+? 4.58/1.42, a 2.71 k/bb, it’s not a good year. Which is fine, but can’t ignore that he’s capable of laying an egg.
Burnes didn’t have that kind of year in his three years before FA, so Cease shouldn’t command as much. Also, he was 4th in NL CY last year more because the better sp performances were in the AL. It was a good year, definitely, but not outstanding. 2022 was a much better year. And he did also get shelled in his playoff starts.
He’s just not on the level that Burnes was after 2023, basically bc of consistency.
I agree as to Burnes but still, they just 1 – not 40.
ANY pitcher is capable of laying an egg.
Cease’s 2023 was much better by FIP: 3.72 FIP vs. 4.58 ERA. Good for 3.6 fWAR, which uses FIP rather than ERA in its WAR calculation.
And there’s an easy possible explanation for some of that difference in ERA vs. FIP, because Cease was pitching in front of a White Sox team whose fielding ranked among the 5 worst teams in MLB (per both Statcast and DRS).
That’s all I heard from white Sox fans last year at this time.
Ma you are trying to use one season in which he was still in the top 10 in most categories but not in ERA to try to discount 2022, 2022, and 2024 when he was top 5 in most?
In his four full seasons from 2021-2024 including the 2023 season Cease was 5th in bWAR and 6th in fWAR. He was top ten in every major pitching category other than ERA. He played on one of the bottom 5 teams in defense each season prior to 2024, so that makes sense.
Swing, Cease was in the top 10 in nearly every category last year. FIP, SIERA, K%, K/BB, WHIP, IP, WAR. He was 20th in ERA.
But but what about 5 years ago?
Cease was in top 5 voting for Cy Young multiple times in the last 5 years…value is high.
2022 Cease was 2nd in Cy Young Voting
2024 Cease was 4th in Cy Young Voting
Plus his 2023 looked worse because the white Sox can’t field the ball. Not saying he was good that year but he wasn’t as bad as his era.
SD is desperately looking to shed payroll, so including anything other than an Alcantara and a bag of balls might be an overpay unless they kick in some for Cease’s salary..
So desperate that they’ve made all of zero moves by the end of January
If you include the list of departing free agents that SD had no capacity to resign, then the point stands…and January aint over yet
If you mean they had no interest in over paying then sure. I also don’t see the big market cubs making splashy moves either
And?…I don’t think any Cubs fan would try to argue that Jed is a big spender in FA, but to say no splashy moves?? Tucker, much?
Well, Kyle Tucker is like a top 3 RF in MLB.
Cubs, the Padres have shown no signs of, in your words, desperately looking to shed payroll. Not one trade so far and when asked about players like Cease they have asked for a return that was a serious ouchie for my Red Sox.
Other than the player options for Suarez and Peralta, the list of potential free agents for the Padres are Cease, King, and Arraez. They will no longer be paying Hosmer $13 million so they have $55 million less payroll and the CBT going up to $247 million.
While they can’t extend any of those three this season if they want to keep payroll close to the CBT, they definitely can sign a couple of players at that level next offseason while staying under the $247 million CBT in 2026.
Best- the question going forward for the padres as manny and tatis earn more in the future the tax line will start to match the actual payroll number. Be interesting to see if they are willing to have an actual payroll back up to 240-250m range.
The CBT line is $244 million. I missed that.
That is the big question.
Best, that is a nice breakdown. I think the Padres are going to re-sign at least one of the 3 FA they have and pick up a couple of draft picks for the other 2. I trust Preller to track down the best possible talent with draft picks. His scouting department is second to none.
If you think Alcantara for Cease is fair you are wrong.
Ok…thanks
If you think Cease for Alcantara, Caissie, and Wicks/Assad is fair, you’re very wrong
Who said that? I didn’t say that you made that up.
Cassie and Wicks for Cease. Real simple.
It was in the article above, which is what my initial comment was based on.
Caissie is too much for a rental “above average” inconsistent pitcher.
On MLB Network Morosi implied a 5-player trade with Cassie headlining the Cubs offer with at least 2 starting pitchers with MLB experience and another prospect going to the Padres for Cease.
I have heard that the offer from the Cubs at the Winter Meetings was Cassie, Assad, and Wicks and the Padres countered with Shaw, Assad, Brown, and Canario. As far as anyone is reporting, there have been no talks since then.
There are multiple people with cub “sources” saying prellers as for Shaw+.
Shaw is the bat that likely is the most stable. May not have the upside of Cassie but it’s the most likely to be a solid mlb player.
The Cubs need Shaw. They don’t need all those outfielders. And the Padres need outfielders more than infielders.
Cease threw 189.1 innings of 4.8 fWAR baseball last year and hasn’t had fewer than 165.2 innings or 3.6 fWAR since 2020. The Padres could be the most desperate team in baseball history and they’d STILL get a great return for that level of pitcher. The demand for that level of quantity and quality innings is incredibly high.
If Cease truly was “that level of pitcher”, I’d agree with you. However, 3.6 to 4.8 is really good, but not elite level. Number of innings pitched mostly just speaks to durability, not effectiveness. I’ll give you that he had a really good year last year, but only arguably one elite year in his entire career.
The Cubs gave up a haul for their Tucker rental trade, but he’s elite level year-over-year.
As far as payroll shedding, it happens, especially when a team is having ownership issues (not to mention the 2023 $50M loan). I think getting a 5-tool top 100 prospect for a one year rental seems reasonable.
How many pitchers do you think produced more WAR than that over the last 5 years?
I bet it’s less than 10 without looking it up.
It doesn’t matter the exact number. Feel free to look it up.
Are you saying 3-4 WAR is elite? A WAR of 2.0 for a starting pitcher is considered “average”, so 3-4 is what? Good? That’s not worth trading away a high end prospect for a “good” rental pitcher.
He’s 7th. Highest ranking pitcher who is currently a Cub is Steele at 39.
If he’s not elite then who is????
I can cherry pick stats too. He’s only had one season with an ERA+ above 118. Lifetime ERA+ is 114
Justin Steele’s lifetime ERA+ is 129
You’re not making much sense. Cease is a good pitcher. He relies on the K and has some control issues (wild pitches, elevated BB rates, etc.) and is very inconsistent year over year. He’s worth a decent prospect, but he’s not “elite”
Cease isn’t just good he shows up and takes the ball every day which Steele does not.
I didn’t cherry picking anything. Cease is a stud pitcher. One of the best in the game.
Ok. I’m not going to argue with you. Live your fantasy dude. Huge victory for you arguing in circles. Congrats.
Your team is talking about getting one of the best pitchers in baseball and you showed up here to tell everyone how he isn’t that good and all the prospects the Cubs have are great.
Nice job
@Cubsln25 Guess you didn’t read this? mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/padres-expect-to-carry-…
Haha. Good try. I read more than just the headline, which is clearly what you did.
“…unlikely to increase payroll beyond its current level, a thought that Acee more or less confirms by noting that the club does not appear to be able to add payroll without first making room in the budget elsewhere”
It goes on to talk about how Preller has a lot of holes to fill on the roster and they don’t have the funds to do so without dumping salaries elsewhere. So, what’s your point?
Do YOU read? Because you’re dead wrong. Unless you’ve been reading SI AI generated nonsense. Payroll is currently projected to be $40M more than last year, so by “current level”, it’s $40M more than last year. Acee also interviewed by AJ Preller and Erik Greupner in late fall, and they stated “our payroll for 2025 will be somewhere between 2023 and 2024. Not exactly “desperately looking to cut payroll” as you say. And there is no evidence anywhere to support your claim.
I’m not a Brewers fan, I brew beer. Man you’re dense
The padres did sign a catcher 2 days ago. I doubt they will add another catcher.
They have a “hole” in LF. Could also use another starting pitcher and perhaps DH/untilty guy.
They have some in house options as well. If they trade cease who they need it will be for a lot. The cubs may not want to pay it, perhaps the O’s, Tigers or Mets decide to. If not they can just keep him. If they really want to shed payroll they can trade Suarez.
I was giving you an excuse, but just being that dumb and not a Brewers fan, I guess you don’t have one.
And BTW, your username starts with Brew on a baseball site…uh, definitely easy to assume that’s your team.
I’m a Cubs fan
Padres are not doing a fire sale or they would have already dumped all the higher salaries players.
If the Padres do nothing, their payroll drops down to 136M range in ’26.
So let’s look at the list of departing players:
Profar
Scott
Kim
Solano
Peralta
Higashioka
Now.you want to trade Cease or Kinog or both?
How much WAR can you lose as well as jettisoning fan favorites an expect fans to pay top dollar for tickets?
They’ve lost a rental, an injured player, a flyer that had a career year and three replaceable bench guys. The sky has definitely fallen
Out of that group Profar is the biggest missing piece. Though he just had a career year, in 2023 Profar was the worst player in the game. We picked him up on waivers then gave him 1m. So it’s fair to think he wasn’t worth that deal the Braves have him. I hope he does well as I like him but the padres weren’t giving him that contract even if they had a ton of extra money.
Two articles in one morning, tells me Ken Rosenthal must be in charge at this site,
This is the 8th article on rumored Cease trade since Saturday and yet: “There’s no indication that the two sides are close to any sort of deal or that discussions were anything more than exploratory” is the story
Trying to will it into existence
This happens with the media every year, whether the Pads are winning the offseason, or quiet. The opinion is that they will dissolve ASAP because well, SD is just too small a market to compete with the big boys.
Really don’t think this has much validity. Cubs probably just kicked the tires, at most.
Maybe but rumors about king and the cubs and now cease and the cubs.
Jed is under the gun to win. They could sign Flaherty but that’s a long term commitment.
Owen Caissie should absolutely not be traded back to San Diego. I’m okay with Kevin Alcantara and another low end Single A player going back. He’s a rental so Caissie would be a massive overpay.
Agreed. And I don’t think Alcantara or Cassie are MLB ready. Canario is out of options and probably the most ready. Could be looking at Canario and Assad, plus a lower level.
Canario and Assad?
Come on dude. You Cubs fans are delusional.
You’re right. That was delusional. Cubs would be overpaying, so no thanks.
I like assad, he can’t seem to go deep into games as he tends to build a high pitch count early.
But he gets guys out and if he can start getting ahead in more counts in the early innings and get through 6-7 innings instead of 4-5, he could be an all star caliber pitcher imo.
Personally I’d rather keep the prospects if that’s what it takes to get cease.
I think assad had a bright future.
You’re gonna have to part with
1 of Caissie, Ballesteros, Horton as the center piece and another mlb player
1 of Wick, Bowden, Killian
and possibly another lower level prospect like Jonathan Long.
Burnes netted the Brewers a 63rd overall prospect in Ortizz, a young controllable pitcher in Hall, and a 1st round draft pick.
So a deal for Cease will be similar in nature.
Not like the Cubs are the only one who’s expressed interested in Cease this off season with Twins, Orioles, and Rangers having known interest and other teams such as Red Sox and Tigers who’ve been looking to add to the rotation this off season. So lack of suitors isnt an issue for a pitcher making 14 million (well below marktet value) and who you can QO at end of season.
If that’s the case and they want ONKC. Then Friars can keep Cease.
Thats fine he will look better in a Twins, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Orioles uniform anyways pitching in the AL.
Id rather have Vasquez, Keaschall, Morris, Lewis, and Eeles from the Twins for cease. Better prospects.
The Twins definitely aren’t trading Keaschall or Lewis for Cease. Morris could be the headliner. It’s also laughable that you’d rather have a 34 year old backup catcher with swiftly declining skills. I don’t know who Eelese is even referring to.
Keaschall for Cease is fair. Twins might not do it but thats very fair. Twins probably need to include a starter as well.
“my team isnt paying market rate for one of your best players, theyll pay less and youll like it!”
lol
Cease for Keaschall and Morris is a fair trade. Markets already been set for 1 year of an ace cy young caliber pitcher with 1 year of control when Brewers dealt Burnes.
Why would I want a defense first catcher who the twins are looking to off load his contract? Cause padres need a back up catcher and Lewis and Eeles would be the price to pay for Padres to take Vasquez and his 10 mill contract.
BA had him 63, MLB pipeline had him 99, and MLB is the “official” ranking. He was a low ceiling prospect and most i know think Milwaukee could have gotten more.
Cease is not the sp burnes was though, track record not as strong. But still a top 15 sp. I could see a top 75 prospect, one outside it w top 100 upside, and a decent MLB player.
Maybe Alcantara or Triantos, Wiggins, Busch… i dont see cubs giving that much for a rental though
mlb pipeline had him 63rd
99th… they keep the archive so you can look it up
63rd.
They also have archives of articles still posted to this day where mlb itself says he was the 63rd prospect at mlb pipeline at time of the deal.
Here you go
mlb.com/news/corbin-burnes-traded-to-orioles#:~:te….
“ On Thursday night, Baltimore swung a blockbuster deal, acquiring the right-handed Burnes in a trade with Milwaukee. In return, the O’s sent infielder Joey Ortiz (MLB Pipeline’s No. 63 overall prospect), left-hander DL Hall and a 2024 Competitive Balance Round A Draft pick to the Crew.”
Wanna try again?
OF Caissie
Wick LHP
Brown RHP or RHP Killian
Jonathan Long 1B/OF/3B
Cease is on the table a bidding war will surely begin.
Twins Red Sox Tigers Orioles Rangers could all throw their hat in to the mix
I think we posted our suggestions at the same time. Cassie and Wicks alone is pretty good i don’t think the Cubs would have to add anything else. That fills an extra roster spot and saves the Padres a lot of money.
Padres are serious about trading Cease theres plenty of teams that will drive up the price. Which is why I included 1 of Bowden or Killian and Jonathan Long. Cubs will have to up theit initial offer (minimum Caissie and Wicks) in a bidding war which will likely take place. Its a nice problem for the Padres to have but if cubs want to walk away with Cease, or whoever, youll have to have the best offer of the bunch.
Caissie is better than any prospect that would realistically be available from another team. There’s not going to be a bidding war for a 30 year old pitcher on an expiring contract who has Boras as his agent.
Kjerstad ranked higher than Caissie who could be the center piece of an Orioles deal given their OF depth after signing O Neil
Rosario ranks higher who could be center piece in a Texas deal
Tigers could offer Jung as the center piece who’s made their debut given their depth on the infield after signing Torres
Twins could make Keaschall available with both Rodriguez and Jenkins mlb ready to pair with Larnach Wallner who have a few years of team control themselves so not like Twins are hurting for OF options
Cassie and Wicks is probably fair. The Padres could use a lefty starter the Cubs certainly have one of those. Also Padres could use an outfielder.
I like the fit. If the Cubs had Cease to go with Tucker that’s a big upgrade.
Cubs get: King & Cease
Padres get: Caissie, Assad, Alcantara, and a low A player to be named later
Who says no?
Cubs say no and block the Padres number. Caissie is Tucker’s replacement when he walks. Would be a total fleece to give up him for 2 rentals. Replace Caissie with Triantos
And add a couple lottery tickets.
Lol King and Cease both?
Dude you are delusional.
King had one year of success as a SP and he’s a rental. Cease is inconsistent and a rental.
Caissie is a future middle of the lineup hitter. Alcantara is a potential 5 tool player. Assad is a lower cost middle of the rotation pitcher. San Diego thinking long term would salivate at this offer.
Delusional is not doing any research and clinging to players on their final year under control and resorting instantly to name-calling as a response to a reasonable question.
Dude you couldn’t be a bigger homer if you tried.
lol. Again. That’s your one-dimensional response? Congratulations on having the mental capacity to respond like an adult (using my sarcasm font).
@cubs25 cease, saurez, and morejon for Suzuki and some mop heads
I think the Cubs would take that in a heartbeat. They have a few $ to spend, so Cease & Suarez’s payroll hit (assuming Cease’s arb amount ends up being up a bit over last year) would only be a minimal increase if they shed Suzuki’s. It’d give him a chance to play RF I’d assume, which makes him happy, and the Cubs get a 2 or 3 SP this year and a solid 8th or 9th inning RP for the next 3 years.
That being said, I don’t think SD goes for it
Seiya Suzuki would have to approve of any trade. And he’s the cubs 2nd best hitter. He’s on board doing the majority of DH. I’d pass on that. Suarez probably wants to close. And Pressly waived his ntc to be the Cubs closer. Having a backup when he’s not available isn’t bad but the Cubs have Hamilton Porter Hodge and potentially Ben Brown do back Pressly up.
Good points. Though, Jed’s pushing now to build up the bullpen. Suarez and Morejon instantly do that. Also, watch the video if you haven’t where Pressly talks about “just wanting to win” and being open to have to earn the closer role. He may happily defer to Suarez if it means the team is primed to win now.
Plus, an improvement in the rotation with Cease…I’d take that..
I think Suzuki would accept a move to the West coast, especially if RF was open. I’m sure he says DH is ok, but it’s clearly not his preference.. Yeah, we’d lose his bat, but I think this scenario builds up the rotation and bullpen in big ways. We could always slot in Canario or another AAA big bat whenever needed in the DH role.
It’s all theoretical anyway, but I think this would definiely benefit the Cubs.
@cubsin25. I thought the mop heads would be the dead give away that I was joking. The padres won’t be giving cease away. It would definitely start with wicks, caissie. Preller is very much familiar with him plus he knows cubs prospects are usually busts.
You didn’t use your sarcasm font….How am I suppose to know? LOL
…and I agreed with you anyway. I said the Cubs would take that in a heartbeat and SD wouldn’t go for it.
“I think this would definitely benefit the Cubs”. There, direct quote.
Done
Padres. They still need a rotation.
I can see that. Assad mitigates that a little, but they’re still have to back fill with another low end starter. Fair enough.
According to MLB Network the Padres asked for Shaw, Assad, Brown, and Canario at the Winter Meetings after the Cubs offered Cassie, Assad, and Wicks.
You are far underestimating the value of Cease. Remember who the Cubs gave up for a rental in 2016?
The author suggested Caissie and Wicks for Cease. BITA and others agree that is fair. Padres fans want more, Cubs fans want to give up less. That is exactly how fair trades are supposed to work.
Yeah Cassie and Wicks sure seems reasonable. The Cubs don’t need Wicks at all and they still have Alcantara and Triantos for their outfield. Long term it wouldn’t hurt the Cubs all that much.
I love it that you agree to the offer that Javla135 says you want more from. By that logic, it’s definitely NOT a fair trade.
Oh, btw, Triantos is an infielder, but accuracy isn’t necessary is it?
MLB.com says Triantos can play outfield. Who am I gonna trust them or you?
I can play outfield…doesn’t mean I’m any good at it.
MLB.com says the white Sox are an MLB team.
Who you gonna trust? MLB or your eyes?
If we are cashing in both
King should bring back Caissie, Wick, and Jonathan Long
Cease should bring back Ballesteros instead of Alcantara and Killian
Im fine trading both but padres could certainly net more trading both elsewhere individually but Caissie fills their LF need and Ballesteros fills their 1b need with Wick and Killian offering replacement rotation options and pick up a super utility bat in Long
Ballesteros is a catcher that is destined to be a DH only. He does not play 1st base.
AJ Preller would fall on the floor laughing @ that low ball offer
for two, young, cheap, top of the rotation starters.
Cubs would only get one of those starters from the Padres.
OF Caissie, Horton and more for Cease.
One year of Tucker …one year of Cease..contend for a year and then it’s back to 75 wins again!!
“The circumstances surrounding a potential trade of Cease are fairly similar to those of Corbin Burnes one year ago.”
“One year ago” is vague—does it mean when Burnes was traded or when he was rumored to be available?
please make this happen just include alcantara
Trade simulator just so happens to have the Padres and Cubs both available as their free teams to view today. It says Cease is worth 33 million. Has Caissie at only 12 i think thats far too low but thats what it says.
I can understand the O’s interest in acquiring another starter. You can never have enough.
Look what happened to their staff last year. But I cannot see them trading for a pitcher that will be only another one year rental. So unless either Cease or King will agree to commit to staying in Baltimore, I don’t think it will happen. Especially if the Padres want the likes of Kjerstad or Mayo for them.
I can
One year rentals aren’t as expensive as guys that come with multiple years of control and by acquiring a 1 year rental they can QO him and if they leave orioles net an additional first and extra draft pool money with the extra draft pick.
For a team that’s built their success off draft picks and QO pick types it’s right up their alley
I just don’t get it.
You’d think when you back up the Brinks truck to sign Machado/Tatis/Xander/Darvish, etc etc etc, you would be happy to have relatively inexpensive arms like Cease and King. The window is always closing so just freakin go for it. I would hate to be a Padres fan.
The Padres have no good choices. The window is probably already closed. They can either trade soon to be free agents for long term help or let them walk and get a lot less help back.
The Padres were all in. They had a good run. Most exciting time in Padres history these last few years.
I’m starting to wonder if they’ll put Tatis on the block in the next year or so. He’d get a massive haul, and clear tons of salary.
If your SD you have to get Cassie back in a deal for cease, alcantara is toolsy but how often do those guys never pan out, Cassie can flat out hit, get him and one of the pitchers and another piece that helps the big league team, canario or similar
Cease needs to be in atlanta. Wake up aa bring cease home
Caissie is somewhat interesting, but the contact is terrible. Horton’s shoulder injury gives me pause. I’m not interested in Alcantara; toolsy-OF types as the primary return doesn’t excite me, especially because it would cut into Merrill’s value. Assad would be okay as a secondary piece. I would do Cease for Shaw straight-up, but I doubt the Cubs want to move on from their 2023 1st-rounder so soon. Cubs don’t match up great with the Padres’ needs.
The Cubs line up great with the Padres needs. And no clue what you are talking about with Caissie having a bad contract.
Reading is hard for some people. Contact and Contract are two different things.
I said, “contact”. I do not see a great fit; the Padres’ needs are SP, LF, utility IF, and bench depth (primarily lefties). If they’re subtracting from the first group (their greatest weakness), they’re going to need better solutions than what’s available internally or what can be had cheaply on the FA market. Yes, the Padres, are cash-strapped, but they can save $5M trading Cease mid-season, which might come close to covering the salary of a Cahna or Verdugo type. If Cubs wanna float Brown (or more), then yeah, I think it’s a good fit, but I don’t see them doing that either.
Yeah, Shaw straight up and the padres include suarez.
Otherwise its gonna have to be brown ++
Cassie and Alcantara are ok, but have rather obvious flaws. They can’t be headliners.
Cassie’s contact rate is a bit worrisome. Alcantara has a lot of upside but a lower floor.
Brown, Assad, wick would be of interest. My guess is one or two of them. Perhaps Alcantara since preller likes high toolsy players.
I could see next week something happening. Probably waits until after fan fest this week.
Yeah, I don’t think Shaw moves (nor do I think Padres would bundle Cease and Suarez), but he’s the closest I could get to the Burnes return. Cease and Burnes are exceptionally fair comps for a 1-year rental with Cease having a better “platform” year. I see Caissie and Alcantara as low-floor/high-ceiling types, whereas Ortiz is more like a mid-floor/low-ceiling… Padres would want someone they can plug in immediately. Otherwise, they’re back to square one in LF for 2025. Shaw looks like a total stud, though, so I can’t blame the Cubs for taking a wait-and-see approach.
I’m still not sure he trades anyone now. If the Padres are out of it come ASB, he can possibly flip two premier SPs at the deadline. I don’t know how the lawsuit clouds things, but the Padres held their trade chips in 21/23, so I’m doubtful there will be any changes unless it’s a Soto-esque deal to trim payroll and address multiple roster spots.
Alcantara seems like a low floor high ceiling guy to me. If the padres got back either him or Cassie my guess is they would be given the chance to start. Especially if they have a good Spring.
I really don’t think the cubs would have any interest in Suarez after signing Presley.
I would vastly prefer Caissie to Alcantara as a secondary or tertiary piece. The former seems like he could be a platoon LF/bench lefty as soon as next year. Alcantara has some loud tools, but he is very raw and only has one option left. It’d be better to take a chance on one of the vet outfielders floating around.
Hearing the padres asked for Shaw plus.
Hell yeah, shoot for the stars.
70% contact rate and 30% SO rate over the last 2 seasons.
Shaw, Assad. Brown, and Canario. Huge ask like the one from the Red Sox.
We heard about this in early December at the winter meetings from the same writer. The Cubs were one of many teams reported to have asked about Cease at the meetings.
Morosi was also the one that reported that the Padres were asking for Mayer, Abreu and two pitchers from the Red Sox for Cease at that time. All except Mayer were MLB players. The Cubs don’t match up well with the Padres asking for that kind of return.
Cubbies going all in after trading Bellinger. Good for them. The fans deserve it. Hopefully, Tucker is a long-term piece. If not, add him to the Dodgers Outfield next year.
If I had to guess I would say that Tucker will go to the Mets or Yankees.
Well Cease isn’t bringing back a top 10 baseball prospect ++ if that wasn’t obvious.
I’m not sure I’d want this either way. The Cubs have a lot of minor league talent that is just barely not ready for the majors, and trading away major league level players for another rental to completely buy in is something I don’t want to see right now. The Pads are also looking like they have one more shot at going for something big, and if Cease leaves they are, in all likelihood, not making another push, and that would suck so much energy out of the Padres’ fanbase. I wouldn’t make this deal.
San Diego ownership obviously doesn’t know what it wants from one year to year.
Possible trade proposal: Cease for Alcantara/Canario, and Wicks,. That feels fair to me.
Both caissie and alcantrara would welcome the trade because they’re both blocked here as it currently stands. However, hoyer lacks initiative and aggressiveness to get it done.
The wrong Cade Horton Baseball Reference page was linked.
It should be this one:
baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hor…
Wow why all the hate?
“payroll-crunched Padres“ – top 10 payroll just announced by ownership
“myriad roster holes” – we have space to add a veteran 1b/dh type and a backup outfielder, and thats about it.
“ lacks rotation depth” – 6 mlb quality starters including Cease, King, Darvish, Waldron, Vazquez, and Brito – all had +WAR in 2024. Look for a reliever to try to move in as well due to our stacked bullpen.
“shaky-at-best collection of options to fill out manager Mike Shildt’s bench” – wow, Wade, Brosseau, and Eguy Rosario might surprise you
#4 onward are not “mlb quality” starters. Those 3 are #5/6 guys at best. Padres clearly need at least 1 starter.
all were better than average in 2024 and can certainly get better. how can you say positive war players are not mlb quality?
Starters?
Waldron & Vasquez were the only 2 who started and had an 84 ERA+
I’d rather not pencil either one in my opening day rotation. Those are 2 guys who wind up getting starts when your top 5 hits the IL. Waldron was really really bad in the 2nd half.
I don’t love Waldron (who save the season with his 11 high quality starters but did fall of the second half) or Vasquez but they were two of the pitchers that battled for the 5th spot last year. They combined pitched a decent amount. The padres still won 93 games with them pitching as much as they did. So it’s not the end of the world if they pitch a decent amount again.
This is why a pitcher like cease is so valuable. The guy pitches every 5th day. That plus he is a good pitcher makes him very valuable to the padres.
positive war is above replacement level not above average, there’s a difference. the average mlb player war is about 2 (that’s just a quick google search so might not be completely accurate but should be close)
interesting, i thought replacement level was average, will have to read how they define replacement level.
I think it’s critical we find out about these guys this year, and make moves if its not working out. But, the difference in 1-2 era can easily be mitigated with a great bullpen.
I wonder how an era+ of 84 compares to #4-6 starters across the league.
Brito got sent down to start, but he looked like he had stuff.
Watch out Tyler. They don’t like Padres fans that speak common sense on here.
Reports are Preller asked for Shaw +
13 million being considered expensive for Dylan Cease is wild, man. Wild. What outfielder are you going to get that is going to match Ace production at anywhere near that price? Just… wow.
Anyone….i use this on a mobile device, and all of a sudden today, all sports went to desktop version and my button to switch back is now missing???!
Thank you in advance for any help. Blessings, Tom
Posted this on Mets article. It belongs here.
At dinner tonight we were trying to talk about anything except the legislative session we had just come out of and I brought up the rumor from earlier about the Cubs and Padres. One of the other attorneys said don’t be daft, look at the type of trades both of these POBOs have made the last year or two. They were big splashy deals. Think bigger. So I did.
Padres send the Cubs Cease and Jason Adam. Cubs rotation and bullpen are set. Among the best in the NL.
Cubs send the Padres Suzuki + $9-10 million, Assad, Brown, Aliendo who is a catching prospect that is close to the majors but blocked by Ballesteros, and a lottery ticket of your choice. Melendez? Cepeda? Padres get LF, backfill the rotation, get more depth at catcher, and a wish upon a star prospect. Padres spend about the same in 2025.
The Padres had been asking for Mayer, Abreu, Fitts, and Gonzalez from the Red Sox for Cease alone so this is in line with that proposal but involves the Cubs getting both Cease and Adam.
This helps both teams. Cubs trade Suzuki who is a poor defensive outfielder but very unhappy as DH. Cubs get an Ace. They also get a top setup man with 2 years of team control who also has closing experience. Both Assad and Brown would not have made rotation with Cease there and the 2025-2026 offseason has a huge number of good starting pitchers hitting free agency.
Interesting trade idea.
I don’t love the padres adding Adam’s. I agree he would fit the cubs but he really fits the padres. I’d rather swap Suarez for Adam but with Presley there that fit is probably gone. The padres don’t really shed a lot of money on this deal either. Perhaps if the cubs pay more down on Suzuki.
My guess is the padres if they trade cease won’t want to take on cash back.
Padres wouldn’t shed much if any payroll in that deal.
Judging from things their GM has said about having payroll flexibility and their actions so far this offseason, I see no evidence other than the insistence of the rumor mongers in the press that the Padres need or intend to make any moves that are focused on saving money and not only on improving the team on the field.
My judgement is that both Padres fans and members of the press are conditioned by decades of low budgets to think the Padres have to fall back to earth on payroll because they are a small market team not taking into account the evidence that belies that belief in that the Padres have been a revenue sharing paying team for the last 3 seasons. In other words, instead being one of the bottom 5 teams in revenue like they had been for the first 60 years of their existence, the Padres are now in the top half of MLB in revenue and are spending like it.
The Padres already have a good team with few holes and their moves this offseason are evidence of just how strong that they believe the team is. They addressed catcher in the same manner they have the last 4 years. They need a couple more veteran players for the bench. Another starter would be a luxury, not a necessity. With a rotation fronted by Cease, King, and Darvish their staff is stronger than the majority of teams and definitely stronger than it was coming into spring training last season.
Sorry, have to cut it short. Heading back into legislative session.