Cristian Javier Targeting Second Half Return From Tommy John Surgery

The Astros figure to enter the season plagued by a number of rotation injuries this winter. Both Cristian Javier and J.P. France underwent season-ending surgery last year and are locks to start 2025 on the injured list, while reporting yesterday revealed that both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are also slated to miss at least the start of the upcoming campaign. France indicated earlier this month that he was targeting a return from shoulder surgery in July of this year, while Ari Alexander of KPRC2 reports that Javier suggested during the club’s FanFest event yesterday that he’s eyeing a return at some point in the second half.

That’s a somewhat vague timetable, though it could still fall within the 12 to 14 month timeline that’s typically associated with UCL surgery. GM Dana Brown indicated back in October (as noted by MLB.com) that Javier could return as soon as late July. That would be shortly after the All-Star break and roughly 14 months after he went under the knife, though Javier’s more general second half timetable suggests at least some possibility of him returning later than previously anticipated. It’s surely not how the Astros were hoping things would go when they signed Javier to a five-year, $64MM extension prior to the 2023 campaign. The righty is due to make $10.4MM in 2025 as part of that contract before his salary jumps to $21.4MM for the final two years of the deal.

The Astros are surely hoping the right-hander will be able to return to the form he flashed in 2022, when he posted a 2.54 ERA (150 ERA+) and a 3.16 FIP in 148 2/3 innings of work before turning in a strong performance during the club’s championship run in October. He hasn’t been quite the same pitcher in the years since then, with a pedestrian 4.44 ERA (95 ERA+ and 4.61 FIP in 38 starts since the start of the 2023 season, but it’s not hard to imagine the soon to be 28-year-old hurler getting things back on track once he’s fully healthy. With Framber Valdez set to hit free agency following the 2025 season while both McCullers and Garcia are schedule to enter the open market the following winter, it would make sense if Houston decides to take things slowly with Javier as he works his way back from surgery given his importance to the long-term outlook of the club’s rotation.

Fortunately for Houston, they figure to be reasonably well-equipped to handle an extended absence for Javier should his time on the injured list bleed into August. The club’s projected Opening Day rotation figures to feature Valdez, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and freshly acquired youngster Hayden Wesneski. Reinforcements should become available to the club throughout the season, as well. While Garcia and McCullers are no longer expected to be ready for Opening Day, Alexander notes that the latter has already resumed throwing off a mound and GM Dana Brown indicated yesterday that Garcia has resumed throwing as well. That would make a return early in the season feasible for both players, with France also seemingly likely to return over the summer and buy Javier extra time to rehab if necessary.