Marlins left-hander Braxton Garrett will undergo a revision surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow with an internal brace, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The southpaw will miss the entire 2025 season. Mish adds that the Fish are looking at free agency as a way to replace Garrett in their rotation.
It’s another unfortunate development in the health department, both for Garrett and the Marlins. The lefty had Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer in the summer of 2017, which led to him missing the back half of that season and all of 2018.
After recovering from that surgery, he got back on track and made it to the major leagues, serving as an up-and-down guy for the 2020 to 2022 seasons. In 2023, he seemed to establish himself as a viable big league rotation member. He tossed 159 2/3 innings for Miami that year, allowing 3.66 earned runs per nine. His 23.7% strikeout rate was around league average but he had a solid 49.7% ground ball rate and excellent 4.4% walk rate.
But 2024 was a challenge for him, as he made multiple trips to the injured list and only made seven starts. A left shoulder impingement put him on the shelf to start the year. He was back by the middle of May and made his seven appearances over the next few weeks, but then was back on the IL due to a left forearm flexor strain. He was rehabbing in September and seemed ready to come off the IL but suffered a setback when he “felt something” in the back of his elbow. He was diagnosed with an elbow impingement in October and seemed set for a mostly healthy offseason, but that prognosis has apparently changed.
It’s unfortunate for Garrett on a couple of fronts. He’s 27 years old, turning 28 in August of this year, so he’s now set to miss a full season of what could have been his prime. It will hurt him financially as well. He just qualified for arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player, meaning he’ll get four passes instead of the normal three. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $1.8MM salary next year. After missing all of 2025, he’ll likely be slated for the same salary when he hopefully returns to the mound in 2026. Even if he comes back healthy and effective, he’ll be nudging up his salary from a lower foundation than if he had stayed healthy.
For the Marlins, their rotation picture has frequently changed in recent years. The Fish managed to sneak into the playoffs in 2023, partially thanks to a starting staff consisting of Garrett, Sandy Alcántara, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez and Edward Cabrera. But all of those guys were either hurt or ineffective in 2024, causing the club’s competitive chances to fall apart.
There was a chance of having that whole gang back together in 2025 but Luzardo was recently traded to the Phillies and now Garrett is going to be on ice. Miami isn’t planning to compete in 2025 anyhow, based on their lack of offseason additions as well as their trades of Luzardo and Jake Burger, but it’s still less than ideal for Garrett to go down like this. Given his age and years of club control, he was in line to be part of the club’s next competitive window. That could still be the case but the path ahead is a bit foggier now.
Going into 2025, they could still have a rotation core of Alcántara and Cabrera. They could welcome back Pérez midseason, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer, Valente Bellozo and Adam Mazur are candidates to take the ball as well. Prospect Robby Snelling isn’t yet on the 40-man but could push his way into the mix.
Given the club’s lack of offseason activity, both in the previous offseason and the current one, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they just rolled with that group and let the chips fall where they may, but it seems as though they will look to add a veteran via free agency. That is perhaps related to recent reporting that they may need to get their competitive balance tax number up to $105MM in order to avoid a grievance from the MLB Players Association related to the usage of their revenue-sharing funds. RosterResource currently pegs their CBT number at $83MM, so it seems they will have to find ways to bridge that gap.
Acquiring a player making decent money from another club would be one way to do that, but free agency is obviously another. The starting pitching market has been hot but guys like Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta Andrew Heaney are still out there. It would be a surprise if the Marlins went after those guys, who are surely looking for notable multi-year deals, but the market also has guys that will likely be limited to one-year deals such as Kyle Gibson, Patrick Corbin, Chris Flexen, Lance Lynn, Ross Stripling, Jose Quintana, Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, Spencer Turnbull and more.
That Luzardo trade looms large now…
Terrible timing in the first place.
Really too bad b/c Garrett has a lot of upside when healthy.
As a Phillies fan, I am certainly willing to add Taijuan Walker as a late-breaking player to be named later to the Luzardo deal, as long as the Marlins pay 75% of the remaining deal.
Ya’ know – just to be a nice neighbor and help a friend out in their time of need.
Sooooo generous. 🙂
It’s a gift…
Big loss for the Marlins. Garrett is still young enough to turn in a good run of seasons but it has been a rough beginning to his career.
I’ll drive him to the airport
I don’t think the Marlins even care about being competitive this year. They just need warm bodies to start.
No way guys you definitely want Stroman…cmon
Stroman for Norby, let’s go.
Cards should try to send them Mikolas with 80% salary retained. He lives in Jupiter, FL, where the Cards and Fish both have ST. He might OK a trade to be close to home.
He’s not good but the Marlins are going to be terrible anyway and he’ll eat 175 innings.
If the Cardinals are going to eat 80% of the salary they could just keep Mikolas.
I think the idea is to give the fish something to spend on so they can avoid a grievance.
Not if they’re going to give him the ball every fifth day. Give that rotation spot to a rookie.
Plus even shedding 20% is like $3.5 million or something. Apparently DeWitt is on the brink of bankruptcy, so every penny counts.
What are you talking about? Weirdo……
Apparently you don’t get out much. Like the A’s, the Marlins need to increase their luxury tax payroll for next season to avoid a grievance from the Major League Baseball Players Association.
So how does trading for Mikolas and have the Cardinals pay 80% of his salary help?
It’s clear the Marlins are really concerned about this issue. They have been signing players left and right. There was……then there was…….
They will be concerned if they lose revenue sharing.
I don’t know about 80%, but I’d love to see Mikolas and at least half of his salary off the Cardinals roster.
Yeah maybe half. He’s got a NTC i believe and Matz doesn’t so i think Matz is more likely to be traded but Mikolas needs to go too. Pretty sure McGreevy can replace his production.
Kyle Hart might be a good solution to fill in on a two year deal as Edward Cabrera might be better suited for the bullpen going forward/non-tendered after this year
Cabrera is extremely talented he’s not going to the bullpen
Cabrera is a talented hot mess. He’s running out of chances.
Josh Hader was extremely talented as a starter, now he’s an extremely talented closer.
If Cabrera can’t get his control issues under…well, conttol, then he’s absolutely ticketed for a bullpen role. Hard to succeed as a starter when you’re walking more a batter each time through the lineup.
Cabrera will go to the bullpen if he does not reign in his command.
He won’t be non tendered w/o an injury though. He has too much talent and hasn’t been given a bullpen look yet.
welp
there goes the marlins chances at winning the WS this yr
Marlins can have Jordan Montgomery for a song. In fact, the Dbacks will pay you to take him. Good bounce-back candidate who could bring back a good prospect at the deadline. Just make sure he gets a spring training this time!
Not a chance the Marlins trade for Monty. They want to keep prospects, not trade them. They’re not going to contend so what’s the point of gaining a few pointless marginal wins?
All the more reason to take Mikolas. He won’t cost them prospects or help them win.
The free agent market to replace 7 starts and 37 innings is deep.
If they also want to spend a lot to ensure they qualify for revenue sharing, Max Scherzer is probably perfect. He will cost a lot and probably won’t pitch much at all. Good fit.
Red Sox will sign him
Can’t until he is off the DL right? Definitely going to the Sox at some point though!
It’s been the IL for like 5 years now, and they can’t because he’s still part of the Marlins organization, not because he’s hurt.
Was disabled list not PC enough?
Hopeless franchise ! They need to relocate…..out of the NL East
The Marlins need to just contract their team and begin as a new expansion team if they want to succeed in Miami. Some curse is placed on that organization.
Name the teams with more WS championships than the Marlins since they came into the league. There’s only 3 if I’m not mistaken. If a curse gets you 2 ‘chips in the first 30 years and only 10% of the league has more, then sign me up to get hexed.
People graduating from college weren’t alive the time you speak of. Maybe Loria sold the teams soul to win then and become cursed for decades afterwards.
so flags only fly for 18-22 years huh coulda sworn it was forever
You’re right the Marlins have been the pinnacle of success for 20 years. My apologies
So cross the Marlins off the list for Roki Sasaki. Not only can they not develop pitchers, but they seem to have the absolute worst track record of pitcher health in all of MLB.
#SnakeBitten
Yeah I am sure this is what will convince Sasaki not to sign in Miami.
This line “Miami isn’t planning to compete in 2025 anyhow, based on their lack of offseason additions as well as their trades of Luzardo and Jake Burge” Ouch
Keeping Jake Burger evidently was a sign of them competing? He sure helped the White Sox compete!
Martin Perez and Michael Lorenzen both signed extremely affordable deals the Fish could’ve topped. Try harder, Miami!
It is not just Miami in that leaky boat.
Being a Marlins fan has to be one of Dante’s circles of hell.
They have the payroll capacity to sign a starter or two that can be flipped at the deadline if all goes well. I’d even be on board to acquire Stroman if Yanks willing to throw in a prospect or two.
if they flip the starting pitcher his whole salary doesn’t get counted on the CBT payroll at the end of the year. Which is when they have to be at 104M.
This is what worries me about the Pirates and teams who put all their faith in starting pitching. Laugh all you want but this team had a top rotation when healthy, but lost nearly the full rotation for most of the season. And Garrett, Luzardo, and Cabrera were bad when they did play.
Gee, I wonder if the Orioles might be willing to send back Trevor Rogers?
…again, could have traded him in November 2023, could have traded him before that actually, and a couple of times since…I said this would happen over and over…it is what it is now
I may be crazy, but Quintana seems like the best pitcher on the market, including Flaherty.