The Braves finally made their first significant move of the offseason this week, coming to terms with Jurickson Profar on a three-year, $42MM contract that’ll install him as their new everyday left fielder. Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos confirmed in chatting with the Braves beat yesterday that Profar will be ticketed for regular work in left field, with Jarred Kelenic and Bryan De La Cruz (who signed a split major league deal earlier this winter) competing for at-bats in right field (link via MLB.com’s Mark Bowman).
Profar told reporters via Zoom this morning that landing with the Braves is a near-ideal scenario. As a native of Curacao, he grew up idolizing countryman Andruw Jones and watching him with the Braves. He’ll now be united with friend and countryman Ozzie Albies with those same Braves. Profar indicated that as soon as free agency began, his top two preferences were to remain in San Diego or sign in Atlanta (via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). The Padres, who are dealing with a payroll crunch and ownership infighting, never came close to Atlanta’s offer at any point in free agency, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
With Profar slated for everyday work in left field and Michael Harris II in center, that leaves right field as the only place for Kelenic and De La Cruz to get playing time early in the season. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be back to man right field eventually but is expected to miss more than a month of the season as he finishes off rehabbing last year’s torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. A platoon is possible, but Anthopoulos made clear that Kelenic “will get a lot of reps in right field” this spring and “will have every opportunity to be that guy.”
Kelenic, 25, came to the Braves by way of a convoluted series of salary dump trades last year. The former No. 6 overall pick and top prospect was effectively purchased from the Mariners, with Atlanta taking on the underwater contracts of first baseman Evan White and lefty Marco Gonzales to get Kelenic to Atlanta. Gonzales was subsequently traded to the Pirates, who took on about $3MM of his $12MM salary. White was shipped to Anaheim in return for another pair of underwater contracts: David Fletcher and Max Stassi. The Braves quickly flipped Stassi to the White Sox for a player to be named later, agreeing to pay the bulk of Stassi’s salary. When factoring in the dead money they absorbed and the associated luxury tax hits, they spent around $32MM to acquire Kelenic.
Suffice it to say, year one of the gambit didn’t play out as hoped. Kelenic got out to a decent start in April, slumped in May, had a monster showing in June, and then tanked for the majority of the final three months. On the whole, he hit .231/.286/.393. His 15 homers were a new career-high, but he also fanned in almost 30% of his plate appearances while providing slightly below-average defense in the outfield and slashing only .206/.236/.279 against lefties.
That anemic performance against southpaws is where De La Cruz could come into play. The longtime Marlin and brief Pirate was non-tendered earlier this winter and quickly scooped by by Atlanta. De La Cruz makes for an odd platoon partner for Kelenic, however. His right-handed bat is very clearly more productive versus lefties than the lefty-swinging Kelenic, but De La Cruz has still been a below-average hitter against southpaws in his career: .270/.315/.390 (92 wRC+). Considering Kelenic has only been about average versus righties in his career, it’s an underwhelming platoon unless one or both players take a substantial step forward.
That shouldn’t be a long-term issue, of course. Acuña should be back sometime in May or June. At that point, the Braves can rely on a Profar-Harris-Acuña alignment from left to right. Kelenic, whom Anthopoulos praised as an option capable of playing all three outfield spots, could then slide into more of a fourth outfield role with De La Cruz serving as a depth option in Triple-A.
With the outfield largely settled, the question of what’s next for the Braves naturally arises. Anthopoulos said last night that he has the flexibility needed to add to the rotation and/or bullpen (via David O’Brien of The Athletic). No deal in either department is close, however, and the veteran baseball ops leader emphasized that any rotation arm that’s brought in would need to be a decisive upgrade over in-house arms like Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson. Both are out of minor league options and thus very likely ticketed for roster spots to begin the season. O’Brien speculates that Atlanta will add a reliever and forgo a prominent rotation acquisition.
The Braves currently have Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach in the top three spots of the rotation. Spencer Strider will return at some point in the season’s first half after undergoing UCL surgery last April. Depth options in Triple-A include Davis Daniel, Bryce Elder and prospects Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver. Once Strider returns, that’s a lot of arms for what’s effectively one rotation spot — assuming good health for each of Sale, Lopez and Schwellenbach.
As O’Brien suggested then, a bullpen addition makes a bit more sense. The Braves will likely be without Joe Jimenez all season after the right-hander underwent knee surgery, subtracting a key piece of their late-inning relief group. With Raisel Iglesias, Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee all on board, there’s still a strong high-leverage foundation, but there’s plenty of room to add a reliever and still remain under the luxury tax threshold, if that’s a goal.
RosterResource currently projects the Braves for a bit more than $230MM of tax obligations, leaving them nearly $11MM from the $241MM threshold. Notable unsigned relievers who could fit into that budget include Kyle Finnegan, Phil Maton, Andrew Chafin, Danny Coulombe, Tim Hill and injury rebound candidates such as Kendall Graveman, Lou Trivino and Keynan Middleton. If the Braves are willing to cross the tax threshold for a third straight season (or engineer a trade to clear up a bit more breathing room), names like Carlos Estevez and David Robertson remain available on the market.
Good for Pro. Now let’s see if that lightening in the bottle he captured last year is still there.
Padres notes:
towinagain: Do you own a tow truck? What are you towing and why are you towing it again?
Towin again at your service haha
Queue up the Blindly Faithful to complain about ‘the media’ having it in for the Pobres.
‘The team has not said it’s cutting payroll!’
‘93 wins LAST YEAR!’
‘In AJ we trust!’
…siiiiiiigh
The Padres have increased payroll by 18.8% from last season. Did you miss that?
What were their big free agent signings last season? A couple of relievers. Were you commiting seppuku last offseason?
Not sure which Padres player slept with your mom, but you have got to let it go. Its affecting your mental health.
The point is that every baseball journalist in existence takes their turn with the mothers of padre fans. Apparently.
I think they’ll trade Kelenic, especially if Acuna’s rehab gets ahead of expectations. Perhaps to the Padres for a pair of low level minor leaguers and a bucket of balls
thats a little much for Kelenic unless the bucket of balls are used
Given Acuna’s injury history…highly doubtful Kelenic goes anywhere.
Trade Kelenic for who exactly? His trade value is all but gone since he hasn’t shown the ability to cut his strike out numbers. It’s crazy to think that far he has fallen, he was a consensus top 5 prospect in baseball.
Kelenic has a trade value of almost $11M, it should be more, but that is still decent.
Not that the Braves are trading him anyway
Looking at his career, it’s a stretch to think Sale will have another 2024. Especially with the way 2024 ended in back pain.
Sale and Lopez performances for that matter were either lightning in a bottle, AA genius, pure luck or all of the above.
Respectfully, you looked at Sale’s career? Did you start at 2019?
I get the IP, but if Sale is healthy, like DeGrom, he’s going to perform. He made some changes to his repertoire that isn’t so reliant on the FB and change of scenery. Regression will happen, but he doesn’t have to win the pitching Triple Crown to be an ace or even worth the acquisition price.
Respectfully, you don’t know ball. This time last year, you were telling me you knew more about Kelenic than Mariners fans and that ATL would fix him. Your takes are consistently wrong.
Thanks for the follow, Brettlez! Only need to be right 3x outta 10 to be HOF worthy. 🙂
@Run I did see 17-18 as well as 13-14, but Sale from 19-23 was a shell of what he was when he had that success. He was in his 20’s in that time period.
It’s too hard to ignore 2019-23 and his late season back tightness in 2024.
@Lasagna: Is it “too hard to ignore” Sale’s statements that he was going to pitch in the playoffs if the Braves had gotten by the Padres because his back wasn’t an issue?
Well Jeff, I hope you are right, but I’m not believing in Sale being a shadow of his 2023 self until I see it.
@Lasagna: Hope I’m right too. We’ll both see soon.
This is all nice, but who did the Dodgers sign today?
Dodgers living rent free in a Yankee fan’s head?
Because it’s far fetched for a young Curacao kid idolizing countrymen and the teams they routinely play for?
Curacao is 1/5 the size of Cobb County GA. Albies played little league with Profar’s brother. Profar grew up a Braves fan because of Andruw Jones. You can’t tell me that it doesn’t matter since the Braves end up with such a high % of the players from that tiny Caribbean country.
But if that kid has a choice between the Braves and any other team, that Curaçao native kid will.choose the Braves
Pinkie,
Two separate things can be true. It’s not a binary situation.
Braves still probably a 3rd place team as is. That pitching is thin.
Behind NYM with that proven rotation and Nimmo hitting clean-up.
Mets aren’t done. I still say Alonso is going back there. And Stearns seems to know what he’s doing with starting pitching. He showed that last year. I think they can use one more top starting pitcher but he seems to know what he’s doing.
Frankie says relax.
I was right about Alonso.
Lou, so dumb that it hurts.
Sale, Strider, Lopez and Schwellenbach might be the best top-4 in baseball. It’s certainly top 5. And I think the Braves end up trading for a starter too.
@Fowlerrc: Agree w/your assessment of the Braves top 4 starters, but as the article noted, both Holmes and Anderson are out of options. Imo, the Braves aren’t likely to deal for an arm better than those two for a couple of reasons. One is the cluster of young arms in the top two levels of the Braves mil system. Don’t believe the Braves will block all of them by trading for a lesser option than Anderson, Holmes, Elder, Waldrup, AJSS, Hackenburg, Burkhalter, Braun, Lara, and Ritchie. Second is the Braves being $11M or a bit less under the 1st luxury tax. Have to be a big name like Cease or Pablo Lopez for the Braves to go after another starter while going over the tax and blocking so many MLB ready arms—imo. Agree w/the article’s suggestion that the Braves are more likely to seek pen help (in a lower cost range.)
I’m of the opinion that they could go get another starter and not block anybody. Injuries are going to happen. We’re probably going to need 8-9-10 starters this year. Ian Anderson being out of options isn’t going to stop me from upgrading the rotation. Holmes can just as easily start the season in the ‘pen or be a 6th starter as we ease into the season. With the volatility of relievers, you’re just as likely to catch lightning in a bottle signing a bunch of guys off the trash heap for middle relief as you are paying one of those guys $10 million. Go get a starter and figure out roles for everyone else afterwards. Both Waldrep and ASJJ might be better out of the ‘pen anyway
What you are saying makes sense, but I don’t see the Braves doing it. They want to keep some room under the CBT (IMHO) for a mid-season acquisition. I get “Anderson being out of options isn’t going to stop me from upgrading the rotation”, but name an arm out there that will ‘definitely’ be an upgrade that fits financially. There are none unless you talk trade, and then there is only one that we all know is available and I don’t think the Braves pull that for a rental.
I think they go with Sales, Lopez, Schellenbach, Holmes and Anderson to start the season with another internal as the 6th if needed. If Strider comes back and Anderson is pitching in the same ballpark as Holmes, then they slide Holmes to the pen. If not, maybe vice versa, though they might try to move Anderson to someone needing an arm at a cheap cost that has rotation room.
I’ve been talking trade this entire time. And there are a bunch of possibilities. Everyone keeps saying that Braves wanna stay under the tax line, but nobody from the Braves had actually said that, and AA has come out and publicly said that it won’t stop him from making moves. I don’t think the luxury tax is the reason Profar was the Braves 1st big move this offseason. I think the reason is that everybody’s been throwing around contracts like they’re gonna be paying with Monopoly money and AA is never gonna play that game. He found value in Profar. I think he can find value in a trade for a starter too, as we inch towards spring training and teams start to get more desperate
To sign Holmes to be a starter and then move him to the pen without giving him the opportunity to fail first would do a lot of damage to the Braves ability to negotiate with FAs in the future. That’s just not going to happen.
Are you thinking of Clay Holmes signing with the Mets? We’re talking about Grant Holmes with the Braves who was a wingman 5th/6th starter long relief guy last year too. He has never been promised a spot in the rotation, I can pretty much guarantee you of that.
I’d take Mariners top 5 over anyones
But would you take them if they weren’t pitching in that ball park?
yes
Speaking of thin pitching rotations, have you looked at the Mets? Ace Manaea, injury-prone Senga, Montas, Peterson, and Holmes. For a team spending as much as they are that’s weak. I’ll easily take Sale, Strider, Lopez, Schwellenbach, and whoever they roll out as the fifth starter over that.
You really think Sale is gonna pitch as well as he did last year? There’s some good arms there but plenty of injury concerns as well.
Why wouldn’t he? The stuff is obviously still there. And most of his injuries with the Red Sox weren’t really arm related and actually more just freak stuff that happened all right after another. If the Braves are smart about giving him extra rest, just like they did last year, I don’t see any reason why couldn’t be close to as productive as he was last year. Lopez hasn’t really dealt with any Major injuries. Schwellenbach is a kid, plenty of juice left. And Strider didn’t actually have Tommy John. He had the brace surgery which has a completely different rehab and completely different (shorter) timeline for recovery. AA said the other day he’s already throwing bullpens. And the elbow issue didn’t come from too much stress from a flaw in his mechanics, it came from a bone spur that made it’s way to his elbow.
Why wouldn’t he? Because Sale is going to be 36 years old with a sketchy health history. You can say they’re freak injuries, but the guy still has a fairly extensive health history. He also had some health issues towards the end of the year. I’m not saying it’s impossible he pitches as well as he did last year, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it. I’m just saying, if if someone’s going to look at the Mets and say look at all these questions marks in their rotation, even though a lot of those pitchers have had good track records too and have had at least had some solid pitching seasons in their recent history, be fair and acknowledge the question marks for your own team too.
But, all things being equal, assuming health, just based on talent, the Braves have probably a top 3-5 rotation in all of baseball. The Mets are middle of the pack probably, and Mets starters are going to get injured too. I’ll take a rotation of 4 studs over a rotation of five 3’s 100 times out of 100. You rationalize it however you need to.
Right, you can say all that and you probably said it last season too and who made it further? You can take whatever rotation you want however many times you want, but the facts are both are good teams either one can go further than the other. Meaning the Mets absolutely can go further than the Braves as they did last year. So you can rationalize that anyway you want. And the Braves have been riddled with injuries so it wouldn’t shock me if they don’t meet expectations again as a result.
Hahahahahaha. Notice how, not once, did you argue the Mets were the more talented team? That’s all I need to know. But you go ahead and keep cheering for injuries.
Talent is subjective. Would you said the Braves were more talented last year? Who got further? You seem to be holding onto something that doesn’t mean all that much.
Like a lot of fans, you’re incapable of looking at the flaws on your own team and you think all the best case scenarios will work out for your team which is foolish. I’m willing to say either team can beat the other because both teams have strengths and flaws. It’s hard debating with someone like you who thinks their team is perfect yet is clearly not.
Yes, they were. They lost a Cy Young level pitcher and the reigning MVP and finished with the exact same record as the Mets. If you need all of a team’s best players to go down to just be on the same level, it says something about the talent in your team. Your argument is entertaining though. I’ll give you that.
Once again, you only look from your own perspective. You know the Mets didn’t have their best pitcher, Kodai Senga, for the entire season last year outside of a handful of innings. This is a guy who had a 2.98 ERA in 166 innings the season before. You might find my argument entertaining. I find you anything but entertaining. I find you glib.
You’re seriously comparing Kodai Senga to Spencer Strider. That’s amazing. Who are you gonna compare to losing Acuña for the last 5 months of the season? Or Albies for about 2 months total? Or Riley for the last 6 weeks of the season? Or Harris for 6 weeks in the dog days? You SURE you wanna compare Mets injuries to Braves injuries last year? You SURE you wanna do that?
Here you go again. Yeah the guy pitched like an ace in his rookie season. So why would I not make the comparison? Furthermore, it’s not about Senga versus Strider, even though Strider had an ERA of almost four in his last healthy season. It’s about a team having lost its best pitcher for the entire season who had a sub three ERA the season before. And now the Mets get him back. How about adding Juan Soto for an entire season when having not had him the season before? And all these players you cited, are they all going to be completely healthy next season? Some of those guys have injuries every year and they’re probably going to keep having injuries every year. That’s not me wishing that’s just reality. Guys on both teams will get injured. Even guys we don’t expect. So at the end of the day you seem to think you have a crystal ball, but I don’t think so.
Which of those guys have gotten inured every year? I’ll wait. My argument has only ever been that if both teams are 100% healthy, the Braves are a considerable better team. Your argument is that all the Braves best players will inevitably get hurt, while none of the Mets best players will get hurt, for some weird reason that I can’t wrap my brain around. But hey man, you do you.
Are you kidding? When is Acuna ever healthy?Albie‘s has missed a lot of games in his career. I mean, how are you just going to disregard those facts? Those are two of the guys you mentioned! So you didn’t have to wait for long did you? My argument isn’t what you stated but again you’re very biased and you cannot get through a post without being biased. My point is that talent is a subjective thing. And we never know how healthy either team will be. So you want to go on the premise if both teams are healthy next year the Braves will be better. We know both teams won’t be healthy next year. It’s just a matter of how many health issues each team has. And I’m saying that the Braves last year had a ton of health issues so I wouldn’t expect them to be completely healthy. That seems very unreasonable to think they will get through the season without injuries, especially with the guys that I cited who miss a lot of time. You also have no idea of the talent of the Mets because let’s be honest you don’t watch a lot of Mets games.
Acuna’s been injured all of twice in his career. Both ACL injuries. He’s missed a couple games here or there after being hit by pitches. That’s literally it. You’re just making stuff up and then claiming I’m biased. Enjoy the season man. I’m done here.
Acuña’s torn his ACL twice. That’s 2 injuries. He debuted in 2018. That’s literally it. You’re just making up BS and then accusing me of being biased. Hi pot, I’m kettle. Enjoy the season man. I’m done
In the last four years, Acuna has played 82 games, 119 games, 159 games, 49 games. That’s one season out of the last four where he played nearly a full season. Two of the seasons, he played half a season or less. Yeah sounds like the picture of a guy who’s out there every day. Yeah it really sounds like “a couple games here or there.” So who’s making things up? And of course you didn’t even mention Albies. I don’t care if you’re done here. You’ve put up a terrible argument after terrible argument, and I combat you every time.
Tires his ACL-Started the season late recovering from the same ACL injury-Won MVP doing things nobody’s ever done before-Tore his ACL. Are you just trolling at this point?
Oh I thought you were done here? It doesn’t matter if it’s the same injury. The point is he’s injured and misses a lot of games. Why can’t you accept facts? That’s three out of four seasons where he missed a ton of games. And don’t you think at this point his legs are going to be compromised going forward? You don’t think he’s at risk of further injury? You act like two ACL injuries is no big deal. Lol.
It doesn’t matter if it’s the same injury. My god.
It doesn’t? Why because you said so? What in the world are you talking about? What matters is how much time he misses and how significant the injuries are. As you said yourself two ACL injuries and he has missed a ton of time. Of course it matters! Did you just escape from the insane asylum?
NYM are clearly a third place team, which may them a spot in the October tournament.
Jose Quintana would be a nice, cheap pickup for the Braves if they’re looking for rotation help. I honestly don’t know why more teams aren’t in on him unless he’s asking for the moon.
Back of NYM’s rotation includes Braves legend Griffin Canning, Paul Blackburn, Tylor Magill’s 3rd chance at landing a rotation spot — not sure why they aren’t in on him, especially if the Clay Holmes SP experiment blows up.
I totally agree. I would have just brought him back instead of bothering with Canning or worrying about Blackburn. Still time, though. Stearns and AA don’t broadcast their respective moves until they happen.
There was some thought by David O’Brien (I think) that Braves look to stay under threshold and reset. With the rehab of Acuña and Strider, they won’t be 100% in 2025. Go all out in 2026 with them at 100% and tax penalties anew. Sounds like a nice strategy. And if 2925 works better than expected, good for them.
GA-native Dylan Cease becomes a FA. Does he get the Nola $$$?
I really think the Braves are likely a playoff team as is. They ca do the reset and still make it. In the NL, you basically have the Dodgers are an almost certainty, but after that it’s a crapshoot.
Phillies
Mets
a single NL CEntral team
Padres (look for regression)
DBacks (I think they should be better)
Braves
That’s it.
The Central might get two in just due to the fact they get to play each other a ton and maybe two teams beat up on the other three, but I doubt it. The Giants and Rockies are crap. The Nats and Marlins are crap. I mean, you have almost 8 teams with no real chance right out of the box. Sure, lightning in a bottle and all that, but looking at it seriously, you can pretty much write off 8 teams right now.
Mets rotation is ok at best. No true ace and the depth is ok, just ok, not the rotation of a championship team — that’s not to say they couldn’t win a championship with what they have, but it doesn’t “wow” on paper.
Stearns not wanting to give FA pitchers long deals analytically I’m sure looks sound to his analytics team, but giving Corbin Burnes a reason not to go to Arizona would have changed everything about the NY rotation.
The Mets are going to be fine. As we’ve seen the last few years, you don’t need to win the division to go deep in the playoffs, you just need to get a wild card berth.
And for all of those disgruntled Mets fans out there who are still complaining that Kelenic was included in the Diaz/Cano trade since they thought he was a “can’t miss prospect”, well….you never know what you’re going to get out of a prospect.
Ditto for the Braves. Too many non-contenders in the NL.
@pinkiepink: Shouldn’t you be off somewhere trolling your nemesis BITA/blackpink/Joel P? You know, before the MLBTR censors figure out who you are and ban you again?
Someone sounds like they’re having a bad day. Get over here for a big hug, you rascal!
from the article:
De La Cruz has still been a below-average hitter against southpaws in his career: .270/.315/.390 (92 wRC+).
That didn’t sound too bad to me so I checked his #’s from last season vs LHP:
.285/.309/.425
Not bad for a guy making only 860k.
How abt a 6 man rotation to ease strider back?
Shawver & waldrep at the end there
Anderson and Holmes will almost certainly be in the rotation to start the year. Too cheap and too much potential to not slot them in. Unless they move one that is. AJSS and Waldrep will almost certainly be in season call-ups or sixth starter at some point as they shuiffle guys though.
holmes is more suited to be a long reliever
and ian hasnt pitched in the majors since 2022, and had a 5era when he did
waldrep + AJ are more likely to be called up and given a shot in my opinion
All of them will be given a chance to start in spring training, and whoever looks the best will win it. I’m still convinced they don’t go out and trade for another starter, but even if they do, they’re gonna definitely use a 6th starter for while, easing Sale and Lopez into building up longer starts, then doing the same thing for Strider when he gets back. I think AA said yesterday Strider threw his 4th bullpen, and should have a relatively normal spring training. They’re just going to give him plenty of time to get built up and will start the season on rehab
Well Padres fans, that is a lot more money than the 1/8 with an option that your GM offered him.
Yes it is, but it doesn’t mean Preller was wrong with his offer.
pinkie,
Sasaki could admire Darvish while choosing to play for the Dodgers. Where is the lie?
Still, that statement doesn’t make Sasaki a liar.
Owners and front offices lie to appease the fan base, too. “We can’t afford to spend more. We need the public to help us build a new stadium.” Yeah, right.
I agree, your posts are all nonsense ya weirdo.
How about Klenic for Stroman Yanks eat $8mil of the deal
Not sure Stroman is noticeably better than their young in-house options, of which they have a lot.
Darvish pitched for LAD…