As several of the top free agents of the offseason linger on the market with spring training now under a month away, some have reportedly pivoted to consider short-term/opt-out laden contracts. Pete Alonso and the Mets are reportedly discussing a three-year arrangements with at least one opt-out. Both Anthony Santander and Jack Flaherty have recently signaled willingness to consider similar structures. As for third baseman Alex Bregman, however, agent Scott Boras tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that his client remains focused on a longer-term pact and suggests that there’s ample interest to make that happen.
“Bregman’s a championship player, teams know it,” Boras tells Nightengale. “It’s really a matter of his decision-making and theirs, about how you can close up that gap. There’s substantial interest (in long-term) deals.”
Nightengale adds that the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Tigers are among the teams still “engaged” with Bregman. The Cubs showed some cursory interest as well, per a recent report from Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, but that was more a matter of due diligence to see if Bregman is open to the precise type of short-term arrangement against which Boras is pushing back.
One element of the slower-than-expected market for Bregman (and perhaps for Alonso, Flaherty and Santander) posited by Boras is a simple decrease in the number of teams willing to spend. For a second straight offseason, there’s a group of clubs that is looking to reduce payroll or at least not add to the budget in a meaningful way — largely due to concerns regarding the in-flux status of their television broadcast rights.
While there are some clubs this offseason who’ve spent after a quiet winter in free agency last time around, there are indeed quite a few whose ownership groups have handcuffed the baseball operations staff. The Padres, Twins, Cardinals, Braves, Brewers and Marlins have yet to sign a free agent to a fully guaranteed big league deal. (Atlanta, Milwaukee and Miami have given a handful of split major league deals to players with minor league options remaining.)
Each of those clubs other than Miami has been a notable buyer, to varying extents, in the free-agent market as recently as one or two years ago. Several others — Mariners ($3.5MM), Rockies ($9.75MM), Rays ($8.5MM), Pirates ($8MM) — have spent under $10MM in total. That’s one full third of the teams in MLB whose combined free agent expenditures total $29.75MM — or just barely more than Max Fried will earn annually with the Yankees.
Not all of those clubs would’ve been players for Bregman, Alonso and others with a normal offseason of spending permission from ownership, of course. But their lack of activity has lessened the demand for mid-tier and lower-tier free agents, leaving a larger supply of options for the offseason’s actual spenders to peruse.
Bregman has received at least one long-term offer, as the incumbent Astros put forth a reported six-year, $156MM deal early in the offseason. That pact is surely no longer on the table, as Houston pivoted first to an effort to acquire Nolan Arenado — a deal that Arenado blocked with his no-trade clause — and then to sign Christian Walker at first base. Having already acquired infielder Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as part of their return for star outfielder Kyle Tucker, Houston now has Paredes at the hot corner, Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base and Walker at first base. They’re also just north of the luxury tax threshold, and there’s been talk of potential trades to dip back under that number. Suffice it to say, $26MM per year for Bregman no longer feels plausible in Houston.
Boras screws the pooch once more
turned down 6/156 so boras needs to find something he can spin as better. good luck with that
More than I would offer him. He allegedly loves texas. Seems like a mistake. I’d still rather be him than Pete. As long as Cohen doesn’t get stupid Pete is gonna cry like Freddie Freeman.
I struggle to see a larger deal making sense for the Red Sox, Jays, or Tigers here… His best bet is probably to take a short-term deal with opt outs and try again next year — will help if his hitting rebounds after the atypically poor plate discipline he showed last year.
It’s been widely reported that the Tigers won’t go longer than five years on a deal, but that Bregman/Boras are seeking a minimum of six…
Wait – Yeah seems like Bregman is walking in the footsteps of his former teammate Correa.
@West: Tigers can probably be around 5/140 and opt outs after year 3 & 4 (no sooner). The tired “saving face” term is it’s slightly more AAV than Hou offer and the opt outs.
RSox/Mets/NYY could sneak in last second if he tells Boras to get one of those heavyweights to match it…..but no control for Det there.
The NYY Will not spend at the 110% penalty amount for Bregman. Boston can’t get Devers to move off of 3B. Sterns likely wants to see what the youngsters can do at 3B, but the Mets are still unpredictable. TOR is still looking for a bat to take their money. Detroit is just waiting it out.
Just here to say I’m also in the West Village. Parkhurst. Cheers.
Parkstone. I’m across the street!
I’m known to get a Happy Hour burger at the Metropolitan fairly often.
Likewise. May have to grab a beer or three sometime. Go Lions.
I bet 6/$156 is sounding real good to them now…
I thought 6/156 was reasonable for everyone there. Seems like Boras gets caught filling these guys heads up with huge numbers and when his evaluation is off it really looks bad for the player.
tigers – Once again the biggest remaining free agents with less than a month until Spring Training (Alonso, Bregman, etc) are Boras clients.
Perhaps Scott’s ego was re-inflated after the Soto signing?
At this point teams have already either allocated their budget to other players, or are prepared to head into the season with what they’ve already got. I simply don’t see why teams would substantially increase their offers this late in the offseason. It’s a tactic of Boras that has failed far more often than it’s worked.
But what does Scott care? He’s already made a fortune this offseason. Too bad he wrongly convinced Alonso and Bregman they are worth far more than they actually are.
To be fair Boras represents more MLB players than any other agency. He is also one of the main reasons players can get as much money as they do now. I thought it was absurd that Soto would get more than $600 million but Boras got him $765. But I do agree with your points.
Boras doesn’t need the money like you alluded to so I think his ego gets in the way sometimes and he believes he is so good at his job that he will always win and get what he wants.
I’m a Astros fan and Bregman is a player that’s hard to determine his worth. He is credited with turning around Hunter Brown’s season last year by telling him to add a slider and Brown looked like one of the best pitchers in the bigs after that and this wasn’t the first pitcher Bregman has done this with.
Bregman needs to face reality. His market for a long term contract & $$$ is dwindling.
Bregman needs to make sure Boras isn’t leading him down a path that may alter his career
Probably crosses The Motorcitykitties off the list…..
Bregman no longer playing in Houston “a homer park” especially with the Crawford boxes will impact his power numbers big time! We are looking at no more than 20 hrs and 80 RBI’s on a great year playing anywhere else! Having signed a contract giving up his first potential free agent opportunity is dramatically impacting his longterm value now signing at age 31. He will be lucky to get 5/125M at this point! Having Boris as his agent has cost him with Boris’s style of negotiating!
Most free agents have made less than 40M in total money prior to signing their big FA contract but Bregman is already earned over 100M with the 5 year deal he already got from the Astros early in his career. Even at 5/125M his career earnings would be over $225,000,000!!!
Another Boras causality.
Riiiiiiigggghhhhtttt…..
Well then he’s not coming to Detroit. Sorry fellow Tigers fans, or am I?
If Mike illitch wasn’t dead then bregman would be a tiger
I agree with that.
Would agree he’ll end up with the Tigers as they’ll win this waiting game of chicken. It’s to be on their terms not Boras or Bregmans as they do not want to block Jung’s McGingile’s or Rainer’s path to MLB within the next 3 years. Believe he’ll end up agreeing to a 3-year $100M deal with opt outs at years 1 & 2, but signing won’t happen until February 15th timeframe once the Super Bowl parade is done in Detroit
That’s a helluva overpay…
That’s what it’s going to take to get a short term deal done
Love the confidence on the Super Bowl. My squad is out of it but one of my best friends grew up in Detroit so I’m on the wagon.
The lions have that “it” factor but their entire defense is injured and they now have to use Gibbs as full time running back
Analonze was back last game. And Montgomery is going to be playing in Saturday’s game
The Lions will be fine as long as Campbell doesn’t gamble with too many 4th down situations
Like I said before – In free agency, you better hope the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Giants or Padres like you enough because you likely aren’t getting paid well by any other team
I agree. All the spenders have spent.
The Red Sox have yet to be the big spenders this offseason and don’t have the right handed bat they are supposed to be looking for, but it does not appear they have any intentions of spending. Not sure that Bregman would have the impact that his asking price should bring, but he certainly is still an option if they decide to make a splash. Not holding my breath on anything more significant from them.
Think you can take the Padres off that list
Yeah, maybe the Angels instead
Yeah, but it looks like the Angels are finally sticking to a rebuilding plan of sorts.
It has been quite a while since Arte went full Arte on a huge deal.
Corbin Burnes says hi.
… who signed for below his projected totals. At least he got the opt out.
You said “paid well”, he definitely was.
Spin it how you want though…
Projected by whom?
Burnes signed for more than the total projected for him by this site and Fangraphs.
Maybe he’s considering retirement?!?!
The big stall on Bregman is also what Bora$$ is asking for him. No one wants to pay it and it seems we are down to 3, maybe 4 interested teams that do not seem to be too anxious to up their bids. A big game of chicken. We’ll see who blinks first but this one might take quite a while longer to get settled.
Yep. Boras and Bregman have been shooting for deals along the lines of what Rendon(7/245) and Arenado(8/260) signed. But they’ve ignored the fact that 1) both those guys were younger when they signed those deals than Bregman is and 2) neither of those deals has aged well at all. That second factor is one that Boras never wants to acknowledge with any of his comparable, but many Front Offices are starting to pay more attention to.
Bregman will end up with the Tigers on a shorter term deal but Bora$$ will make them pay for it by screwing them to the wall on the Tarik Skubal negotiations as he won’t give them an inch or room for a “hometown discount”
Boras only gives hometown discounts when the players really want it. He was pissed at Weaver for leaving money on the table to extend with the Angels.
If a player really wants it, Boras will get it done. Which makes me think Bregman turning down Houston’s solid offer might be as much on Alex as Scott.
The odds of Skubal signing an extension with the Tigers before FA are slim and none, and it appears Slim is already saddling up and leaving town.
current asking price + giving up draft pick = no deal
If Bregman could let go of his ego long enough to learn the Roger Beshens football slider, he could easily get the payday he’s been searching for
You aren’t helping my earnest and ardent quest to avoid that rabbit hole.
His asking price to what he is actually going to get has the exact same trajectory of the football slider.
Through the roof? Yeah I’d have to agree. No coincidence that when players adopt the ol slide, they get rich and famous. Heck, I started throwing it and lost 35 lbs. and my wife came back with the kids!
“The Roger Beshens football slider changed my life and it can change your life too!!!”
All you have to do is enter the 16 digits on the back of your mom’s debit card!
His power and range are about to fall off a cliff. I’d be looking for a long-term deal too.
bore ass
Short man syndrome at it’s finest.
Who’s short?
Isn’t he 6-foot? That’s not tall but I wouldn’t say it’s short either.
“Isn’t he 6 foot”…The internet says Bregman is 6 ft, but I do admit he looks shorter than other players on tv. I always thought Bregman was about 5’8”, because I’ve seen various reporters seemingly tower over him.
He played with Altuve, so he looks like a giant compared to him
Three inches above average is tall imo
he’s listed at 6 feet but he’s at least 2 inches shorter
If Bregman is 6 foot then I’m sober
The fact he’s listed at 6 feet tall is short man syndrome at it’s finest.
He should absolutely consider everything at this stage. Outside of the big boys Soto/Sho/ect, the trend seems to be for shorter deals with higher AAVs. He’s already 30 so it makes sense on his end to get it while he can but if he was worth it, he’d have a new team by now.
Say he’ll play at C as well as 2B? 😉
Play in Japan or Korea?
The problem is that shorter deals with opt-outs are death for guys who reject a QO because of the draft pick loss. It looks like Bregman (and Alonzo) might have made more money in the long run by accepting the $21M QO and hitting the market next year without any draft pick issues.
Maybe he should go to the padres they like overpaid overhyped long term contracts
wonder if he’ll feel differently in 6 weeks? couldn’t happen to a nicer guy
Teams realize he’s not worth paying for the decline phase of his career. Meanwhile…
Aside from the shenanigans he very clearly took significant part in, he’s been more of a good than great player. Would he make most teams better? Yeah, probably. But not at the cost of a long term deal with the kind of AAV he’s looking for.
I would be happy offering 5 or 6 years. The glove is excellent and he has great bat to ball/on base skills. All of that ages well.
Maybe Scott Boras should market all his players as “transcendent”. That “generational” thing is getting a little old.
The Boras: sign after spring training and have a down year
This is ridiculous that every off season now players, teams, agents wait and wait until basically February for changes. I honestly don’t know who to blame. I feel like baseball needs to enforce a deadline all free agents Sign by February 1st before Spring Training or some other deadline.
Boras trying to blame teams. No. The obviously explanation for the slow markets for these players is that he pushes for too high a salary for too many years. If these guys would consider reasonable lengths, the desired salaries would be there, and likewise if length and total guarantees is the priority then accept a lower AAV that reduces the long-term risk of the deal ending up completely underwater. The push for full market yearly value for 1-2 years beyond what anyone things is reasonable may work out for some, but Boras keeps holding out to get that for ALL his clients. Know when to cry “uncle” and budge.
I would have thought Bregman would have signed by now. But Bora$$ is being stubborn as is Bregman.
Be a miracle he signs by opening day or start of ST.
He is 31. Or will be and that. He should have signed with Astros but glad they have moved on if going to be stubborn and more. I do not see strong push for him. Have seen interest but if someone wanted him think would have stepped up or something. Wish Houston could get Santander for outfield or someone. Chas/Meyers are not worth it. Granted we had all the trips to playoffs with them but they are not great offensively. Defensively I would take Meyers. But we shall see in time where Bregman ends up if at all.
Santander on 3yr deal would be niiiice especially after Mets signing of Winker.
Maybe Houston throws Bregman 5/$125 w opt-outs though?
I personally love these rumors of Bregman going to the Cubs when Hoyer just balked at giving Kyle Tucker the extra 2.5 million he was asking for and won’t spend more than 2 bucks for a Closer after that’s what killed the Cubs the last 2 years. There are too many mice running around in Hoyers head. With the Minor League system they have and the money they still have to spend the Cubs should be in the mix every year. As my dad used to say” F me to tears. Cry or laugh Hoyer needs to be gone. There’s no excuse. Colin Rea? That’s a joke right?
Jed Hoyer thinks similar to David Stearns has but has Tom Ricketts as his boss instead of Steve Cohen. Just saying…
Long high dollar contracts are not a right, they are a privilege to be earned.
Whether or not you or I feel he has earned it is irrelevant. And yup we are on MLBtr to discuss.
However it is up to the front offices, yes the ones who have frequently gotten burned, to make those decisions. Funny how Boras thinks he can “guilt” those offices into spending. As a Phillies fan, the team I root for has been on both ends of those contracts.
Bregman has been more good than great imo and am happy the Phillies are out on him. Wish him the best, just not in Philly.
I would have been happy to have Bregman in Philly, but not at anything approaching even what he turned down from the Stros. Agreed – a very good player, but the signs are there already.
If they could pay for him as an above average 3B with a solid hit tool and above average defense, then terrific. Paying for him as an elite 3B for 6 or 7 years as he enters his age 31 season however is just silly.
I agree that, outside of those very elite FA, teams are going to be a little sharper when it comes to these risky deals. The odds have not worked out well in the long haul.
There is a sucker out there from time to time.
Machado got the Pads to take on another 5/$150MM. Kris Bryant got a stupid deal from the Rox. These deals aren’t any good and if one of those teams isn’t giving in then you’re screwed like Bregman and Alonso.
I literally forgot Bregman was still out there, which can’t bode well for him
Bregman is not aging well. His OPS has been declining the last few years. He’s still a good player, but in three years his new team may regret the signing
The life on his bat in terms of power would be extended in a hitter’s park. And the defense will age well.
You mean like the park he’s called home his entire career?
Yes. But also other places like AZ, Philly, Toronto, or Boston come to mind as well.
He will be this years Jordan Montgomery. Let him sit…
Good luck with that, bro.
Jays are desperate and prime to jump in on a bargain. Might be their only option
Maybe, but they won’t go five or six years on Bregman – look at what’s happening with the George Springer contract and you can easily see why.
I don’t get it. Did Bregman and Boras not pay attention at all last season (the last 2 seasons really) when Diamond/Bally went belly up and several teams didn’t know where their tv revenue was going to come from? As Boras said there is a group of teams unwilling to spend which means there is only a small group willing to and Bregman doesn’t fit many of them
Every year I wonder about some of the overpriced FA and how they will get megadeals. Yet every yr there is always a new sucker or suckers that go for them.
Do they give long term contracts in Japan?
Not to Gaijin they don’t
Crazy that Chapman will in all likelihood walk away with a bigger deal than Bregman when the dust settles.
Don’t see the big deal, guy has a .272 career BA, meh!
The Blue Issues just seem like an obvious choice. Why not go to Boras and try and get a deal find for Bregman and Alonzo? Play Alonzob as the DH and fetch with Vlad once or twice a week to give him some rest, but keep his bat in the lineup?
Jays seems desperate to spend money and send a message to others. Offer Bregman 6/$180 and Alonzo 5/$160. Both overpays, but that’s what they need to do to draw FA to Toronto. GMs are likely on the hot seat. If they get fired, then it’s someone else’s problem. Maybe Vlad will see this as a great sign, and maybe he signs an extension around 8/$400. Vlad gets fewer years than Soto but gets the distinction of being the first $50 mil man. Maybe add escalators based on 7th or 8th year games or plays appearances.
They might need to sign both just to continue being competitive once Vlad leaves. If Bichette bounces back, he’s probably gone too. New core of the team would be Bregman, Pete, and Gimenez. That at least sells some tickets after all the stadium upgrades. Plus the AL is so bad that might even get them some wild card entries.
Scott Boras is learning(again) that teams set the market, not ego driven, mercurial player agents.
He should’ve never accepted that $100 Million extension from the Astros then. If he was 28, he might’ve gotten between Xander Boegarts, Anthony Rendon or Marcus Semien money. But two of those deals are basically milk atp and he had a down year in his contract year. Bregman’s last elite year was 6 years ago, which was the year of the juiced ball among the Astros sign stealing issue. This is why you don’t hire Boras if you are in the middle tier between good and great, bc Boras clearly told Bregman he could clear 200 easily.
One concern I’d have about Bregman is his steep walk-rate decline. Is he swinging earlier to “cheat” (not “cheat-cheat) a little because he’s having trouble handling speed or movement? I know BA isn’t the whole story, but OBA is important. A guy with a .315 OBA who hasn’t been below .350 since his rookie year….that’s a missing part of his game. And, if he is cheating a little how’s he going to approach things as he ages more?
I think you are on to something. He hit just .246/.318/.415 on fastballs, the weakest performance of his career. His wOBA on fastballs has trended from .399 to .365 to .319 over the last three years, and none of those hold a candle to the .484 that he put up in 2019 at his peak.
@mike
I read somewhere that when bets start to lose bat speed they sometimes adjust by singing more aggressively to try and catch up on the fastball. maybe that also means not being a selective. they get into 2 strike counts and they chase to protect the plate.
Has anyone in these comments ever bought a house thru a real estate agent? Did the agent five you to make your ultimate decision? yeesh. These are grown men. Unless Boras didn’t present an offer to you then he’s done his job. The most he can do is advise you.
Funny thing is after Chapman signed his deal, Bergman basically had the whole 3B free agent market to himself, and yet here we are
Cmon Boras, where’s the MYSTERY TEAM rumors to drive up his price??
“Where’s the MYSTERY TEAM”…Scott Boras is rapidly finding out, that this year’s “mystery team” is located in South Korea or perhaps Venezuela.
Japan.
he’s in decline, of course he wants a long-term deal.
Cracks me up that people blame Boras for the decisions of players. It is their choice, as adults, to go along with whatever Boras plans out. They could just go to some other agent if they want, but they obviously go with Boras due to his overall track record?
Unless you’re Jordan Montgomery
It worked for Soto and many others who get the monster cash. He tells them all that he can get them more money.
Soto would have gotten monster cash even if he was his own agent.
Donations, Donations – I Thought It Was The Trash, Don’t Be Hittin’ On Me
Boras needs to be fired by everyone..
Usually Boras wins and gets teams like the Mets to overpay for Soto. I hate the guy and Davi Samson on his podcast has so many funny stories about him. Teams have no self control. Boras always seems to find a sucker. You only need one sucker, after you tell the others how the bidding is going to the moon.
When will the Nationals start spending?
Mr.Bregman Chicago Cubs would be a great choice.
Bergman made a bad financial decision during down the Astros offer. I will guess that in the long term, he will lose about 50 million by turning it down.
Ifbhe continues to be stubborn, he may be forced to take a 1 year and hope he doesn’t continue his downslide.
Boras loves the Blue Jays. They help him get the other suckers to bid more. I think most of the freee agents will still get strong deals, but there may be 1 or 2 that get screwed by him.
Using what Devers is going to get from age 31 is a reasonable benchmark.
At 31 y/o, Devers is going to make over $200mil/6yrs
I’m not sure sure Devers is going to age as well either.
Devers has a career 25.5 WAR
At the same age, Bregman had a 25.6 WAR
Can’t look at it that way — the bulk of the value of Devers’ deal is in the first half of the contract. If somebody were just signing him for those last six years, he would be getting much much less.
Production varies over the course of a contract, typically falling off as a player gets into his 30s. Yet the payouts are typically steady over the life of the deal. You can’t meaningfully pro-rate a long term deal like this.
Yeah, I doubt he eclipses $200mil, but the years are reasonable
I don’t think it is an easy call on who you’d want post 31 y/o – Bregman vs Devers?
My vote for those post-age-31 years would be “neither”. The difference is that is the price of getting Devers for the years before that.
I also expect Devers’ offense to age a little better due to his profile. Bregman is toast at the point he can no longer play a strong defensive 3B.
Rolder – There are some very questionable factors in comparing a horrendous fielder with an above average fielder. Just because somebody is claiming using voodoo calculations that a negative war is a specific number, there is no proof that the negative number should not be twice as big. If it is then Bregman blows away Devers as a roster spot and Devers value is significantly less than his current WAR suggests to those simulation geeks that didn’t play baseball.
I’d take Bregman over Devers in a heart beat and I could pay him roughly Devers salary because Devers in my opinion makes around $8 to 13 Million more than his true value because he plays in the field. If he goes to DH, Devers value will rise by $5 to $8Million over his current value. You can’t misplay 50 balls and not be costing the team a ton of wins and a lot of extra stress on the pitchers.
One other point about Bregman. In 2017 Houston thanks to Cora, Hinch and Beltran won far more games than they should have. Cora was only a bench coach for one year in 2017 so if we look at what Bregman, Altuve and others did prior to 2017 and subsequent to 2018 we might learn something.
Bregman in 2016 only played 49 games after his call-up. He hit .264 with an OBP of .313 and SLG of .478 for an OPS of .791.
He was 22 years old.after being the second pick of the 2015 draft. He played 157 games in the minors and hit roughly .300. His minor league career was over before the 2017 season when Cora joined the Astros and the cheating happened. During Bregman potential sophomore slump in 2017 he actually raised his average roughly 20 points thanks to the garbage cans. The funny thing is, he hit over .300 at LSU his 3 years of college. So he had a stellar college career.
Bregman had 3 years in his career where he hit over his normal .260 to .265 average and they were 2017, 2018 and 2019. If you remember the timing of the scandal in Houston, 2017 was when Cora introduced the cheating technique to Hinch and November 2019 was when the cheating was exposed. That time frame coincides with Bregman’s elite seasons. Coincidence or not? Once it hit the Astros were harassed by fans, the media and the general public. There was a huge impact to Bregman’s numbers. He went from 31 and 41 HRs to never hitting over 26 again (2024 amount). With the loss of Tucker for a major portion of the season Bregmans numbers fell from 103 to 79 runs and 98 to 75 RBIs despite his HRs going up.
So there are a couple of things you can read into this history.
1 – The two year explosion purely happened thanks to the cheating Cora introduced to the Astros in 2017
2 – After they got caught, the Astro players fell off not from a lack of cheating but rather a desire to prove they didn’t get helped by the cheating and as a result, they tried so hard to prove it didn’t matter their numbers fell off during COVID.
If what I have above is true, then Bregman’s NORM despite being a .300 hitter in the minors and College is roughly a .260 average and a roughly .700 to .800 OPS much like his Hi-A stats in 2015 and his MLB stats in 2016 prior to the cheating.
Now it’s been 4 years since COVID and verbal abuse the question is how good is Bregman really? He was hurt in 2021 and only played 91 games and he hit .270 with a .777 OPS. Then in 2022, fully recovered from the injury, he hit .260 with an OPS of .820. 2023 was similar so that may be his new norm. In 2024, however, he lost a key team mate for nearly the entire season so he was counted on more. It didn’t change anything except lower his totals not his hitting performance. Productivity dropped due to Tucker but he still put up .260 and 770 OPS.
Digging in this deep one has to question of that was he real ability at age 22 through now and the cheating tweaked his numbers until their plot was uncovered. It makes sense
So here is his norm – .260 average, walk rate of .095 so an OBP of .355 and an isolated power of .190 making his slugging percentage .450.
Devers was just ranked the #2 3B on the MLB channel thanks to his PR people and lets compare their numbers.
Devers has hit roughly .270 the last two season so he’s 10 points higher. Devers walk rate is .080 or about 10 points lower. Devers isolated Power is roughly .235 and Bregman’s is roughly .195 or 40 points lower. Devers makes roughly 50 misplays in roughly 300 total chances each year and Bregman makes about 20 in 350 total chances.
This is where we get to see that while Devers is a slightly better hitter, the gross difference on defense more than off sets the small hitting advantage. If Devers moves to DH then the two players might be comparable with Devers winning the hitting and Bregman the fielding since he is an above average fielder.
Here is fun fact we dug up. Bregman has been incredibly consistent in his hitting for the last decade. In 2015 he had almost the exact same numbers as now and if not for the cheating years, his trend would be completely flat. No rise and no fall. Bregman has no physical issues, or cultural eating issues or physical body type issues like Devers. So with 3 years difference in age, who will fall off first? Devers compared to greats like Pujols and Miggy say his 32 year is his max good hitting years. Will Bregman continue at his current pace until age 35? There has been no drop off until now so there is nothing in his history that suggests he can’t continue at his current pace until 35. Devers could exceed expectations but is that likely he will out perform Pujols and Miggy. I say no. So his 32 could actually turn out of be 30. We’ll have to watch his conditioning and his injuries going forward. Over weight players tend to get hurt more easily and more often but nobody knows the future so there is just a great CHANCE that it could happen, it’s not guaranteed.
So if Bregman gets the edge in providing value thanks to Devers defense, how do we evaluate him when Devers makes $30Million but is only valued at around $18 to 22Million when you subtract his defense? Does Bregman deserve over $30Million? I say yes if it’s Boston hiring him since he adds more value than Devers but in the open market I say no. Like Devers who is at least $8 million too high, Bregman would be fair at $22 to $25Million for up to 5 years.
Yes, Bregman at $125M/5yrs is a fair deal. Whether or not Devers is overpaid doesn’t really change that, in my opinion.
Really want to see the Mets sign Bregman, if not for any other reason than to finally close the book on Alonso. Vientos is 6’4″ and 185 lbs. Let’s start getting him to bulk up and make him a long term 1B. Alonso is going to be a paperweight in 2 years, tops
If alonso cant even get short term deal , how the hell is bregman, a cheater on the decline , expect to get long term deal???
Bregman > Alonso in every facet of the game except power.
And Bregman is going to get a long term deal. Maybe not for $200mil but he’s going to get one.
I hated to see Alex leave but his agent screwed up by not accepting the Astros offer … I’m happy with who the Astros brought in and still hopeful they can land another big bat for the outfield.
The Bregman-Alonso Podcast, coming Spring of 2025
A Boras comment filter for all related Boras articles would be a nice add.
No short-term deals. Good for you, Alex! Show ’em who’s boss. Much better to have a long-term retirement. Buh bye.
“Long-Term Deals Not Considering Pete Alonso.”
If teams were willing to meet his price long term, it probably would have happened by now.
Could the Astros do 5/$125MM with opt-outs?
Teams that miss out on Bregman would surely be interested in Paredes.
Not beating up on you personally. That said, as a fan, I’m sick to death with all the player ‘opt-out’ nonsense. All the jumping in and out kills continuity. Teams get something going and then it all changes. Just sign your contract and play out the terms of the deal.
The problem with a 3 year 100million dollar deal with opt-outs is for the team. You’re basically saying I’ll pay the player a very large sum for 1 year. If he does well, he’s off to FA again. You do get your “money’s worth” for one year. If it’s not up to snuff, you’re on the hook for another year of what you just had. These guys are getting to their payday too late. And if they take any security blanket and take a team friendly deal early on? You just about have to be so good a team with pay you into your 40’s and have 3/4 years where they can’t compete at the back-end of these montrocities. And like someone already said….Boras already made a fortune this off-season. What does he care? He can simply say the teams should spend. And it’s them, not me! The agent, who is supposed to read the market for each and every player. Turning down 26 million
For 6 years at age 31 is DUMB!
Wish they would stop linking any high price talent to the Tigers. 2 one year contracts this offseason with one flat out telling you he won’t play a position of need so now moving Keith to 1st base. Circus front office with a clown owner.
I’m starting to think I may be relieved if the Tigs miss out on Bregman. The thought of a 30-plus player w/declining production moving into Comerica Park for 5 or 6 years at Javy Baez dollars is getting scarier and scarier.
Collusion or just finally getting smart, the next players contract will be a beaut but the owners will lose again and the lopsidedness between the haves and have nots continue. The 5 or 6 should all fight it out in one division and let the others fight over the leftovers.
Done. 200 years, $200m. Flat rate of $1m per year.
That should work. He gets his $200M and more than 5 years!
He better take what he can get
Whoever signs him will regret it.
Rubbish. In addition to his stellar play at 3rd (Just won a GG) and his undeniable postseason credentials, his baseball IQ is off the charts. In 2024 he took on the added roll of helping the pitching staff game plan opponents. He’s a leader on and off the field. A consistent 30 HR/100 RBI guy? Maybe not. However, he is steady and reliable. And he will definitely benefit any team that signs him. I’d certainly love to have him back in HOU. And with interested teams dwindling and the calendar getting short, their once maligned offer of 6/156 is looking better and better if he wants a long term deal.
I wouldn’t want the Red Sox to commit to Bregman for ages 34-36 (i.e. years 4-6 of a new contract) at a premium rate. He needs to be tradable in a few years if he’s underperforming, so we’re not right back where we are now with Devers. If he was making, say, $20mm per year in those years and playing part time (platoon, or b/c of injuries) at about league average, he could be traded with a portion of the contract paid by the Sox.
So I’d consider a moderate overpay for 2-3 years, maybe $35mm, with an opt out, and then $20mm per for years 4-6. That ends up being $165mm over six years, but it doesn’t risk becoming a long-term albatross.
bcjd = Check out Bregman’s history of performance. It’s level. No rises and no falls. The 3 year aberration is from the cheating. He’s put up the same numbers since 2015. No reason to expect a drop off soon or increase. Devers on the other hand, is a drop off waiting to happen. His comps of Miggy and Pujols both joined the MLB before 20 and played until their early 30s at a high level. Their last good years were age 32 and 33. Devers has 5 years left IF he’s as good as Miggy and Pujols and at no time so far has he been comparable to either of them by his current age so I’m guessing 32 is an aggressive guess. 30 seems more reasonable so he has 3 good years left and Bregman is in great shape so there is no reason to expect a drop off since none have happened so far. He’s probably looking at a drop after his 35 season but it might be later.
As a Tigers fan I was truly excited about the possibility of Bregman coming on board and being a leader and mentor to this young squad. But we cannot sign this guy to a contract that will run into his late 30s. I loved Miggy more than any other player ever, but that contract was AWFUL as it aged. Outside of the Baez debacle of a contract, we are free from any large expenditures. So if Bregman won’t budge, let him become the Red Sox or the Blue Jays aged 3rd baseman of the future. We can roll with what we have and see what Jace Jung can turn into.
Anything over 4 years would crazy. If I went 5 would be on option maybe last 2 years combined games played.
I wonder if this has to do with teams finding younger guys that contribute enough to not warrant spending BIG on these guys?
Local media revenues- yeah, but the real stickler is the upcoming labor agreement/stoppage. None of them want to be committed to spending on a deal that gets grandfathered into a new system. The players want to continue on and grow without acknowledging the major losses in revenue more than half of the clubs are facing Big changes are a coming.
Chris ilitch and Scott Harris need to quit missing around and hurry up and get the bregman and Santander deals done already especially if they ain’t going to get another pitcher the are going to need to get both bats shouldn’t be hard give bregman 5 years 175 opt out after year three and give Santander also 5 years at 100 maybe 125 opt out after 2 maybe 3 years
5/125 for Bergman. Give him an opt out after 2 and hope he takes it.
I don’t know about this Bergman guy but if you’re willing to pay 5/125 for him, a virtual unknown, then Bregman should be easily worth 180/7 lol
I call B S.
You mean to tell me Alex Bregman is willing to sit out an entire season if nobody gives him a longterm deal??? If Boras can’t sign him now, imagine how hard it’d be after a year of not-playing??? There’d be more question marks after that than there is now and he can’t get an offer now… Baseball should ban Scott Boras, and Shohei Ohtani, the Los Angeles Dodgers front office and Robert Manfred from baseball history. Theyre all horrible for the game of baseball…
I think Cashman is exhausting all avenues to move both Stroman and DJ money to sign Bregman. The timing will be the key! If he pulls this one off the Yanks are the team to beat in the AL.
He’d have to give up something like Spencer Jones + Hampton to offload Lemahieu.
& Honestly that might not be enough.
“There’s substantial interest (in long-term) deals.”
BS. GMs know this is a contract that won’t age well, despite the potential for some immediate results. The most I think he’d get is four years and not sure he’d go much further than $25-27M per.
Padam – Clearly stated but without a why you think his future is so limited.
Check his stats. Other than the garbabe can banging years, he’s been incredibly consistent. No drop off and no gains. He lost production last year because Tucker was out so long but his fundamentals came in consistently with those of the previous decade. He’s a .260 hitter with an OBP around .355 and an OPS of 700 to 800 with an expected value around 750. He makes roughly 20 less misplays on defense so his fielding percentage is significantly higher than Devers. It’s above league average not 20 to 80 points below league average depending on whether you count the bogus error totals or actual balls misplayed by Devers.
I like your $25-$27Million estimate because it seems fair based on his stats. I think he’s a safe bet to be just as productive as now when he’s 35 so I would lean toward a 5-year $125Million offer and I guarantee his numbers in 5 years will be better than Devers on offense. If Devers is still playing 3B in 5 years, Bregman’s contribution to the team will be double that of Devers since his defense costs Boston so many games directly and indirectly through the impact of the errors on the pitching staff.
Bregman’s wRC+ over the past 3 yrs: 137 in 2022, 126 in 2023, and 118 in 2024.
Biggest red flag I see in his 2024 numbers is that his OBP declined to .315 because his walk rate dropped to 6.9%, barely over half what it was in 2022 and 2023.
That’s all fine if for a team if Bregman stabilizes for a few years at a level close to his 2024 production, because he was a 4 fWAR player in 2024.
But the trendline has already been down, and the normal aging curve is that. a guy who turns 31 in March will continue declining.
Last year he had some trouble against fastballs. Still hit them decently, but below his overall numbers and far below his history of feasting on fastballs. (Back in the trash can days he absolutely slaughtered fastballs, though I guess that shouldn’t be too surprising?)
real – Nice gross generalization. People don’t necessarily decline based on age. That shows your understanding of the game is not based on playing it, you are a simulation nerd.
You read stuff you don’t understand and spew it back like you are an expert. Have you ever broke down the components of ONE METRIC to see if it’s accurate? It’s not but you blindly trust the numbers that are normalized data in a world that can’t be accurately normalized.
Why do you believe his fWAR number? Have you broken it down and understood all the faulty assumptions that go into the number? I’m guessing no. It’s a lot easier to simply believe the BS.
Wait – Throw out 2017 to 2019 they are tainted based on the data.
If Tucker doesn’t play most of the year what do you think chances in the pitches selected for him? Would you guess that part of last years lower production could have something to do with the best or second best hitter on the team who bats behind him or ahead of him had a major injury and missed most of the year? Now he’ll be in a completely new environment with new hitting coaches. How do you guess that will pan out? See why predictions are so complicated? Without a team and it’s line-up, all we can guess is that his 10 year trend will continue because we know it’s the least likely wrong prediction but it’s not accurate because there are too many variables. Metrics don’t care. They assume and there are no consequences for being wrong.
Sure, I’ll throw out 2020 as well. That season shouldn’t count in any analysis.
You keep bringing up Tucker’s absence… But of course you realize that Bregman hit .284/.338/.475 during the three months that Tucker was out. He hit .229/.286/.405 before the Tucker injury. Bregman was ice-cold over the first two months of the season, and that cannot be explained by a later injury to Tucker.
I fully understand that predictions are complicated and uncertain. That said, you are predicting that he will rebound. And any team signing him is implicitly doing so with their own expectations of how he will perform. I disagree that hitting his career averages is the “least likely wrong” prediction for a hitter going into his age 31 season.
Sometimes you just gotta take your best guess and go with it. I thought we disagreed on Bregman, yet your $125M/5yr contract seems about right to me. So maybe we agree more than we differ?
Salaries are getting out of control and teams like LA aren’t helping. I think a lot of teams are kind of waiting until the next CBA before committing themselves to these long contracts for 30* year old ball players.
Senor Boras has yet to answer my question regarding the scientifically proven correlation between the rise in delinquent crime and the rise in the cost of attending a professional baseball game.
Furthermore, our investigative reporter has uncovered indications the subject, Boras, has not recited the “Pledge of Allegiance” in an estimated 50+ years.
Now he is selling the American public the idea below .300 batting averages and under 30 home runs have a value of a quarter a billion United States dollars.
We have been unable to establish confirmation of rumors circulating regarding deals made prior to the death of former Communist leader, Fidel Castro, but the subject is known to have extensive contacts across the Caribbean including secretive contacts living under the Communist regime. It has been established the subject is making additional efforts to expand his influence in the far east including Japan, Taiwan, Korea and possibly Communist China.
In the words of the great Elmer Fudd… “Be vewy vewy careful”.
You know, they should have hired the Superfife.
*Caribbean and South America
It’s just hard to see him get more than 6/160 with Chapman having just got 6/151. Chapman is superior defensively and Bregman wasn’t much better offensively.
SIGN BREGMAN BOSTON. BORIS STOP SMOKING CRACK. LET’S GET A 2B DEAL DONE HERE WITH AN OPT OUT AFTER YEAR 1 OR 2…MAYBE A 3 TO 5 YEAR DEAL MAX.
90 TO 150MILL MAX. OR STAY HOME BREGGY AND FIND A NEW AGENT.
Redsox have the #1 prospect for second base in all of baseball, and you’all want to block him by spending a fortune on a third baseman who won’t be allowed to play third base! If instead of trading Teel, they had traded Campbell, then sure, go after Bergman. But now along with Hamilton, Grissom, Gonzalez, and Sogard, you already have way too many 2nd base types. Spend the money on pitching! We already have enough youngster position players who are going to be good mlb regulars.
Who says HOU has taken their offer to Bregman off the table? (I don’t believe a word Nightingale says btw.) It might seem that way after signing Walker. But at this point they haven’t said anything officially. They’re already over the CBT limit. They might as well blow it out and go for it. Re-sign Bregman and go get Santander. If they do that I like their chances of winning the WS against anyone, including that insufferable, overpriced clown show in LA.