This evening’s deadline to exchange filing figures has come and gone. The majority of arbitration-eligible players agreed to contracts to avoid going to a hearing. There were 17 instances where the player and team did not come to terms.
Technically, nothing prevents players and teams from continuing to negotiate. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.
If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. They cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.
The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):
Angels
- Luis Rengifo (5.043): Filed at $5.95MM, team filed at $5.8MM (per Jon Heyman of the New York Post)
- José Quijada (4.046): Filed at $1.14MM, team filed at $975K (per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com)
- Mickey Moniak (3.027): Filed at $2MM, team filed at $1.5MM (per Feinsand)
Brewers
- William Contreras (3.112): Filed at $6.5MM, team filed at $5.6MM (per Feinsand)
Cardinals
- Lars Nootbaar (3.076): Filed at $2.95MM, team filed at $2.45MM (per Feinsand)
- Brendan Donovan (3.000): Filed at $3.3MM, team filed at $2.85MM (per Feinsand)
- Andre Pallante (2.145): Filed at $2.1MM, team filed at $1.925MM (per Feinsand)
Cubs
- Kyle Tucker (5.079): Filed at $17.5MM, team filed at $15MM (per Jesse Rogers of ESPN)
Dodgers
- Alex Vesia (4.078): Filed at $2.35MM, team filed at $2.05MM (per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic)
Nationals
- Nathaniel Lowe (4.145): Filed at $11.1MM, team filed at $10.3MM (per Alden González of ESPN)
Orioles
- Jorge Mateo (5.000): Filed at $4MM, team filed at $3.1MM (per Feinsand)
Padres
- Michael King (5.004): Filed at $8.8MM, team filed at $7.325MM (per Heyman)
Pirates
- Dennis Santana (4.126): Filed at $2.1MM, team filed at $1.4MM (per Feinsand)
- Johan Oviedo (3.079): Filed at $1.15MM, team filed at $850K (per Feinsand)
Rays
- Taylor Walls (3.092): Filed at $1.575MM, team filed at $1.3MM (per Feinsand)
Red Sox
- Jarren Duran (2.155): Filed at $4MM, team filed at $3.5MM (per Feinsand)
Yankees
- Mark Leiter Jr. (4.031): Filed at $2.5MM, team filed at $2.05MM (per Heyman)
—————————————
Tucker and the Cubs have the biggest gap in filing figures at $2.5MM. He’s one of the top two free agents in next year’s class and is unlikely to sign an extension, so they’re almost certainly headed to a hearing. King, who will be one of the best pitchers on the open market next winter, is the only other player with more than $1MM at stake depending on the results of the hearing. The smallest divide is the paltry $150K gap between Rengifo’s and the Angels’ respective filing figures. Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.
Extend King please? Preller in danger of facing his first Arb meeting!
Aloha Gwynning, I hear you! On the flip side, look at my Cubs! Traded away all this talent and controllable years for a rental! Then upon their first deal/transaction with their new “elite” player, they can’t settle with him on his salary for the 1 year! Tucker is going to walk at the end of the season and all my Cubs will be left with is a comp pick, smh! Mahalo Nui!
kgcubs, the team knew all this but decided to roll the dice, hoping they win the division, go on a playoff run and can convince Tucker on staying. It didn’t work with Soto but the Yankees nicely pivoted.
I’m guessing they will. Side note, all the Pads fans freaking out about owners being cheap, well, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees all have guys they didnt settle with. That mean they’re all cheap too?
Padres being extremely cheap with such a good pitcher
In this market for pitchers too…
I’m actually all for this, despite loving King and being a Yankees fan (giving him up for Soto was still the right move, even if it didn’t work out entirely) and I think for parity in baseball, clubs like the Padres would do well to extend guys like King.. That said… they are tightening their purse strings and still have some very expensive contracts on their books that they either couldn’t get rid of if they wanted to, or can’t afford to get rid of commercially- like their fanbase would revolt, they’d look unnecessarily cheap, etc.
King isn’t stupid. I think he knows if he repeats his performance- which he is very likely to do- he is looking at like $20M a year at a steep, steep, steeeeep bargain, which is *not* going to happen and as much as $35M in a year in an aggressive bidding war- which is far more realistic and $27.5M to $32.5M a year is probably the most realistic salary range for him as a free agent.
I could be wrong. Maybe I’m over valuing him and he can be had for like 3 years/$45M or 4 years/$80M on the open market- but I don’t think I am. And the Padres aren’t in the market to spend like that.
So my prediction is the cubs won’t be retaining Tucker next year
I can’t believe the Cubs didn’t settle with Kyle Tucker. The only way that trade becomes a coup for them is if they’re able to resign the guy. They show him their colors immediately?!
The cubs know that it’s a 99% chance he leaves next year
Which means that this year is World Series or bust, yet Tucker is the only big move they’ve made this year and they actually cut salary by trading Bellinger
@sad tormented neglected mariners
Yeah, the trade made no sense for the Cubs. Take a 1-year flyer on the guy who’s leaving but they aren’t in a position to compete for the title.
Listening to the Cubs ownership and management they only want to contend for the division. They are of the opinion that once you make the playoffs anything can happen. While that’s true there is nothing good that is happening there. Jed Hoyer’s management style is “hoping” good things happen and “If” things fall in place. Embarrassing.
The Cubs want to pay Tucker the same amount the White Sox pay Benitendi
Old guy, not a good or fair comparison. Arbitration numbers have ranged as otherwise Tucker would have asked for even more. They will settle so as not to bring up negativity at the hearing. He’ll get $17.25m or something just as close to his number and they will hope for a great year as I posted elsewhere.
Someone please tell Mateo you can’t steal 1st base?!
He must think so, filing 30% above the team’s figure. 30% being significantly more than the percentage of plate appearances he can get on base.
Agreed! Love the guy but 3.1 million sounds reasonable for his skill set and role.
Here’s to all 17 of these guys, and I sincerely hope that the players win 17-0. Nobody here breaks the bank, and I’d like to see all teams chastised for arguing over what in MLB is $$ for peanuts.
Teams throw millions at stars in bidding wars, but quibble over $200k with these workday players. Shameful.
This would be a playoff team and the MLB is lowballing them.
Who’s Texas and why are you Bobin
Bobin, do you understand anything about the system? Take Duran who has multiple years left. He might have been asking for even more before the exchange and gave a number he believes he can win. Regardless, the decided amount became the floor for if he gets injured and misses all of 25. It worked out for Betts going year to year but not many are Mookie, Hopefully, the team and agent work on a multi year deal before the hearing.
Duran was one of the best players on the team last year, we can’t just split the difference and go 3.75 to avoid an arb hearing?
That’s probably what’s going to happen
Why split the difference? Just give him the 4m. Worth every penny and then some.
I’d give him the $4MM he’s asking.
Brew poo fixin to piss off another star over 900k
Most of these guys are pretty good. Not sure how Tucker, Duran, Contreras and King would get to this point with teams.
King seems like a realistic extension candidate. I think he could be had for below market value if he gets a real offer from the Padres.
Also $8.8M is still a bargain for him even as an arbitration figure.
He has proved himself to be the real deal, to be a reliable no. 2 quality starter if not a borderline no. 1 starter.
If he repeats his performance next year he’s looking at like 5 years/$115M easily and as much as 8 years/$260M in this crazy pitching market.
If the Padres offered him 1 year/$12.5M plus 6 years/$150M I could see that getting it done.
Then again, I wouldn’t mind him returning to the Yankees as a free agent…. So, go ahead Padres, under pay him on one year of arbitration!
King has no incentive to take a below market deal from the padres
Padres aren’t in any position to be handing out at or above market deals the next two years.
As things stand padres are at 173 mill for 2026 and 2027. That’s roughly 60 mill away from the CBT tax.
They need to
fill gaps in the rotation left by Cease and King.
find a long term answer in LF
focus on how to replace Luis Arraez
possibly replace Suarez who can opt out of after 2025, if you replace him in house you need to replace whoever replaced him in the pen.
They have so many holes currently going forward they can’t be dishing out 20-30 mill to King alone
Oh I know. Look, if King is the real deal, which I believe him to be, I wouldn’t mind, nee, I would *love* if he reaches free agency and the Yankees swoop in with like 8 years/$218.2M and win the bidding war for him.
I loved King on the Yankees, hated to see him go, would love to see him return, think he’s worth that kind of money, at least would be for the first half of the deal.
But for parity in baseball, I’d like a mid-market club to shell out for a guy like him while still fielding something resembling a competitive roster.
I worry the Padres will eventually become like the Reds with Votto or the Dbacks when they had Greinke or something like that- one or two guys on massive record breaking deals and nothing else because they don’t have the money.
But the fact is that *do* have the money, they just don’t want to spend it now that Seidler has passed.
Just give Tucker the 17 million. He’s already one of the best hitters the Cubs have had in years, and hasn’t even started playing as a Cub…
The Cardinals are absolutely in money saving mode. I don’t remember a time they had 3 players go before a mediator.
After what happened to J.D. Davis last year, you’d think EVERY SINGLE PLAYER would be highly motivated NOT to go to an arbitration hearing. Even if they win the arbitration case, it’s NOT guaranteed money like all other contracts in baseball are. Teams can release the player and back out of the contract up to and including spring training games!
Yeah, this point definitely needs emphasizing more.
That said, it doesn’t really apply in every case. Brewers for example are never going to release Contreras, regardless of arbitration outcome, as he and they well know. But for borderline players, the JD Davis precedent is a very real concern and will surely lead to players settling low rather than fighting.
This will presumably be addressed in the next CBA.
Leave it to the Pirates to have the biggest gap in salary at 33%. Someone is way off and i’m guessing its not Danny Santana
*Dennis
The Pads are taking King to arbitration over $1.5 mil?
Woof.
Here I thought he must have been asking for $10 million.
Maybe the team really should just trade King and Cease. Load up on young pitching and pray for rain in ’25.
At least season tickets sold out. Couldn’t have been due to this offseason so far.
Pirates won’t even give their #4 SP locked into a rotation spot 1 million dollars
Let that sink in.
New ownership is necessary
It looks very x (odd), the disparity between arbitration figures and Super
Star salaries
It ridiculous on the part of both sides to be haggling over this kind of money when they already have so much. I mean, yeah, the owners make a ton of cash of these guys, but it’s not like they’re doing anything for the betterment of society. They’re playing baseball. Or football. Or basketball, hockey, etc.